Thread by @OlivierGuitta

Being in #Berlin while the preparations for the #Libya Peace Conference were under way, I gave an interview to the excellent @SumangaliS @dwnews about the possible outcomes of Sunday's meeting plus the assessment o the players including #IslamicState. bit.ly/2tsa7q9

@SumangaliS @dwnews My Two cents on #BerlinConference on #Libya:
1- Interesting that a major player, #Morocco, was not invited, while it was instrumental in the accords of #Skhirat.
2- Invited though: #Tunisia, #Algeria and #Qatar, countries favourable to the #GNA. bit.ly/30ET4gA

3- Like in #Moscow, the two #Libya-n parties the #GNA #Serraj & the #LNA #Haftar did NOT meet in #Berlin. Last time they met in an international-sponsored conference was in #France under the leadership of President #Macron.
4- Telling that the photo-op did not include any Libyans

5- Likelihood of foreign powers respecting the declaration of an embargo on weapons is close to 0 from both sides actually. They have openly circumvented #UN resolutions: #GNA #Serraj receiving weapons from #Turkey & #Haftar from #UAE, #Egypt, #Jordan.

6- #Turkey's very aggressive recent involvement with sending #Syria-n mercenaries, Turkish military advisors, Turkish radars to #Serraj #GNA, is not going to stop overnight because of the #BerlinConference.
7- None of the two sides & their patrons have intention to stop fighting.

8- If a ceasefire is enforced and the #EU or #Germany sends troops to observe that it is respected, it is likely they will become targets, something I am not sure #Merkel can muster...
9- Back to the Drawing Board and getting ready for a future meaningless conference on #Libya.

Upon returning from #Berlin, I just wrote a piece for @TheIPT on #IslamicState's major opportunity in #Libya: a topic for now ignored in all the noise about the #GNA of #Serraj and the #LNA of Marshall Haftar fighting. bit.ly/2GfsXU0

@TheIPT I was interviewed by @borzou @Independent on #Libya: I don't agree with the contention with #LNA Marshall #Haftar is to be blamed for everything and #GNA #Serraj is all innocent. bit.ly/2TUvZp7

It seems that #Serraj and its #MuslimBrotherhood associates along with supporters #Turkey and #Qatar are getting a free pass in the media while the #UN- backed #GNA has boosted about receiving weapons from #Turkey against the #UN resolutions.

#Syria-n jihadists affiliated with groups such as #alQaeda and #IslamicState group are currently being sent by #Turkey to fight on behalf of the #GNA, the #UN-supported government in #Libya, according to two Libyan militia leaders and a Syrian war monitor. rebrand.ly/acf11

So let me get that right: the #UN approved government in #Libya is importing fighters from #alQaeda and #IslamicState, the two terrorist groups the UN is supposed to be fighting... Still experts and politicians seem to close their eyes and blame #LNA #Haftar instead...

Will these jihadist fighters imported by #Turkey on behalf of the #GNA, the #UN-backed government in #Libya, join #IslamicState elements at some point in the future. Warned about that here: investigativeproject.org/8264/islamic-s…

#Libya: The #MuslimBrotherhood-linked #GNA massively supported by #Turkey and its imported jihadists from #Syria have taken control of the critical #Watiya air base south-west of #Tripoli in what could be the tipping point of the war with #Haftar #LNA. reut.rs/2LG0oC9

Despite the focus on the #UAE's role in #Libya, one country that has a lot to lose from #LNA #Haftar's recent defeats is next door neighbor #Egypt. #Cairo won't sit idle & take the risk of the #MuslimBrotherhood being in control. Likely to see Egypt's army active on that front.

Logical. Just surprised it did not happen before. #Egypt & the #UAE have decided #Libya Marshall Haftar is on his way out. #Haftar's military prowess has been poor at best. #Turkey coming to the help of the Islamist #GNA in January changed the equation. bit.ly/36pHsRP

Yes totally correct for the #UK and the #US to urge #Russia to stop sending mercenaries to the conflict in #Libya. But what about asking our #NATO "Ally" #Turkey to stop sending both jihadists and child soldiers to Libya as well?bit.ly/2WMyXgn

#Turkey allegedly has sent up to 9,000 fighters to #Libya from #Syria to prop up the #Islamist #GNA while #Assad has sent up to 2,000 troops to his #Russia-an ally and its PMC #Wagner, helping #LNA #Haftar. bit.ly/3cNTF4S

So from an initial number of 1,000 to 2,000 now we are up to 11,000 "mercenaries" or rather #Syria-n jihadists that #Turkey is paying off about 2,000$/month in #Libya to fight off #LNA #Haftar. That shows the importance of the country for #Erdogan.

#MuslimBrotherhood allies #Qatar & #Turkey role in #Libya: #Erdogan called #Tamim to ask for more money to finance its war, especially to pay the Islamist #Syria-n mercenaries. #Doha can't really refuse because of #Ankara's help since the #Gulf boycott. bit.ly/2Z0IKPL

Turkish general, who discovered #Qatar funding for jihadists in #Syria through #Turkey & #IslamicState oil smuggling, was executed. Since #Doha #Tamim has become the bankroller of #Erdogan, #Ankara will do anything to protect #Qatar from a huge scandal. bit.ly/33WtEPr