THREAD: For @politico I mapped out which countries are doing best when both their health and economic #coronavirus outcomes are considered - see here, with @beatricezjin.
#Vietnam is the clear best performer; the US ranks just 24th of 30. politico.com/interactives/2… #COVID
#Vietnam is the clear best performer; the US ranks just 24th of 30. politico.com/interactives/2… #COVID
#1 Vietnam: The easy ranking leader as the biggest country with no COVID-19 deaths (95m), barely 300 cases, and economy still set to grow 2.7% in 2020.
#2 is #Taiwan: They avoided the need for a full lockdown by taking early action in January, proving that containment was possible despite proximity and other links with China. Still, with 70 percent of GDP linked to exports, Taiwan's economy is on track to shrink 4 percent.
3) #SouthKorea: Took a significant hit in February, but put strict testing and tracing procedures in place that virtually eliminated the virus by April. It has experienced a small second wave in May, but is escaping with only a slight recession (-1.2 percent GDP in 2020).
5) #Bangladesh: Risk factors include cramped conditions in the world's largest refugee camp and in garment factories, natural disasters, and barely 1,000 ICU beds to cover 160m. For now though, there’s just 520 deaths, growing economy and a relatively stable employment situation.
6) #NewZealand: There’s global fascination/praise around @jacindaardern leadership, very few deaths & unemployment rate around 5%, but NZ’s open economy is being hit hard: IMF predicts GDP to drop around 7 in 2020.
7) #Australia First case of coronavirus was recorded in January, despite slow start, govt ended up enforcing a harsh lockdown, helping keep deaths to 100. The downside: Unemployment is up to 8 percent, while GDP is set to drop 7 percent.
=7th) #Iceland: Tiny Iceland isnij the ranking because 1 in 6 Icelanders has been tested since mass screening began in February, a world-leading rate & the country led world in full multilingual transparency on its data. But Iceland is taking same big economic hit as EU neighbors
=7th #Indonesia*
* I have my doubts about Indonesia’s data (as does Reuters) especially given chaotic response across its 17,000 islands. Jakarta, the capital city also saw a mass exodus after enforcing mild social restrictions in April. For now avoiding recession & mass death.
* I have my doubts about Indonesia’s data (as does Reuters) especially given chaotic response across its 17,000 islands. Jakarta, the capital city also saw a mass exodus after enforcing mild social restrictions in April. For now avoiding recession & mass death.
10) #India: Enacted a full lockdown of its 1.3 billion people after just a handful of deaths, and kept it that way, in recognition of its fragile health system. The side effect: deepening already deep inequalities & up to -45% GDP this quarter.
= 11th) #Argentina chronically fragile economy was already on bailout brink before #COVID. If hit hard by the virus, there will be an economic wipeout, making the strict lockdown (including all flights) since mid-March doubly essential. With under 500 deaths it’s working so far
= 11th) #SouthAfrica moved quickly to introduce social restrictions. One of Africa's most-connected countries, it has kept the virus largely under control, but still faces a deep recession. It helped push rest of African Union to quick action
13) #Germany: Many will be surprised given their good PR. But 🇩🇪 economy is sinking at the same rate neighbors. Death rate significantly lower than 🇫🇷🇮🇹🇬🇧 - but must be noted their nursing home data is both slow and patchy.
= 13th) #SaudiArabia: Low death toll but forced to reimpose a 24-hour curfew after infection counts soared during Ramadan and among migrant workers. It is the oil-producing country best able to weather plummeting oil prices.
15) #Singapore boasts a low death toll, with most citizens protected by initial health measures. But poor living conditions for migrant laborers have been blamed for a 2nd wave making a high infection rates & tarnishing country's stellar early performance. Mild recession expected
=16th #Japan: reported fewer than 800 deaths among 126 million people. While GDP is set to shrink by around 5 percent in 2020, unemployment remains below 3%. govt implementing world's largest stimulus as a % of GDP. But with the world's oldest population, Japan is at ongoing risk
= 16th #Canada: Like the rest of North America, Canada is in a severe recesssion, though its citizens enjoy a strong safety net. Canada's death rate is less than two-thirds that of neighboring United States. 4 in 5 Covid deaths in nursing homes.
18) #Mexico: Scarce testing and a disjointed response, and hospitals are now nearing capacity. The economy is set to shrink 6.6 percent in 2020 amid suspicions the official unemployment rate of 3.3 percent is actually much higher.
19) #Turkey: More than 150,000 cases. While claiming it has sufficient ICU hospital beds, Turkey is reimposing a national lockdown after reopening malls and salons. In recession & the lira is at its lowest-ever levels compared to U.S. $
20) #Nigeria: 233 known deaths in Africa's most populous country of 200 million. Virtually no testing, & there's an unchecked outbreak in Kano, the 2nd city. Half the population lives in absolute poverty (less than $1 per day), recession + prices are soaring (13% inflation).
= 21) #Belgium: Europe’s crossroads & EU's de-facto capital gets bad PR for its high death rate (over double US), but it’s also nearly only one telling full daily truth about nursing home and other likely Covid-19 deaths. Deep recession but generous benefits, jobkess rate is 7%
= 21) #Brazil: President Bolsonaro rejects social distancing measures & now has the world's second-biggest outbreak. Insufficient testingleft the country blind; hospitals in its biggest city, Sao Paulo, are full. Brazil's deep recession mirrors countries that did lock down.
23) #Russia: 3rd highest number of known cases, but conflicting data makes death count unclear. Russia began the pandemic with a strong fiscal position, but a misplayed oil price war is set to hurt the budget bottom line and GDP, undermining Putin's "father of the nation" schtick
25) #Sweden: 🇸🇪 death rate is up to 11 times higher than its neighbors, and, at 409 per million, much higher than the United States. Despite more of their economy remaining open, Sweden is being hit at the same -7 percent decline in GDP as other leading European economies.
26) #France: Relatively strict lockdown kept its infection and death rate slightly lower than that of neighboring U.K., Italy and Spain, but still far higher than in Germany. The country is on track to experience the same 7 percent drop in GDP as Europe's other large economies.
27) #UK 🇬🇧: Britain’s slow deployment of social restrictions are partly to blame for its second-highest death toll, globally: nearly 40,000. But workers enjoy strong salary protection via a generous stimulus package, keeping unemployment rate in the single digits.
28) #Italy 🇮🇹: First to be severely hit in Europe, leading to highest death toll in the world at one point. Tracking for 9% decline in GDP in 2020, the most severe recession in Europe. With high levels of public debt, Italy will also struggle to fund ongoing economic stimulus.
29) #Iran: Rapidly shrinking & sanction-limited economy, already at 16% unemployment, will continue to be hit by low oil prices. The government's poor management of religious holidays and events helped spread the virus. Case data is widely assumed to be inaccurate.
30th and last place goes to #Spain: Horror stories of elderly people left for dead in care homes compound the plain stupid: authorizing a huge IWD march as Italy was going into lockdown. Death rate is double America’s. Unemployment is back over 20 percent, and the budget is empty
