Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GeoPolitics

Most recents (24)

Since many people asking why the (#US) United States would be interested in de-industrialize #Europe, I just decided, to explain it.
Europe, United states and all other Western states expanded its market access, since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
dramatically, all over the world. Those Western countries were producing goods for the whole world and hindered those "customer" countries to build up an own reliable economy and industry.
#economics #Russia #US #EU #Europe
They were producing with cheap resources and labor from third world, and developing countries (#BRICS). Moreover did they transfer whole industries to these countries, to produce even cheaper and more efficient. By exploiting these countries for their resources,
Read 16 tweets
Hier meine #BMBF Kürzungsgeschichte. Im November 2020 gemeinsam mit Kollegen einen Antrag auf die Ausschreibung eingereicht. Es waren v.a. in der Apartheid benachteiligte Universitäten angesprochen.…
Es ging um 220.000 für bis zu 4 Jahre. #stopthecuts 1/16
Mitte Juni 2021: Ihre Skizze wurde zum Vollantrag ausgewählt, aber der muss jetzt ganz schnell gestellt werden. Alles stehen und liegen lassen. Es haben neben mir den Antrag noch 4 weitere Personen inkl. Drittmittelverwaltung vorbereitet. 2/16
Juli 2021: Ja, tut uns leid, wir können den Vollantrag jetzt nicht einreichen, weil es sind #Bundestagswahlen im September (Ach wirklich, das kam aber sehr plötzlich?!) Aber die Uni kann in Vorleistung gehen und dann kommt der Bescheid später. Haben wir abgelehnt. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
Re: Geopolitics/Oil-Conversation With @vtchakarova. I had the pleasure of speaking with Velina today for almost 2 hours about several geopolitical topics, ranging from Russia/Ukraine to China/Taiwan to Oil. I share some important takeaways below. (THREAD)
#Oil #Geopolitics
Russia will NOT stop its current incursion into Ukraine until it has FULL CONTROL of the Donbas region. Then, and only then, will Russia potentially proclaim a unilateral ceasefire to "give itself a break."
Importantly, this will most likely happen on Russia’s terms and NOT because of any demands from the West. She is not seeing any near-term paths to de-escalation and agrees with @PeterZeihan's thesis that Russia will not stop at Ukraine in the LT.
Read 24 tweets
"The South China Sea is fast becoming a Chinese lake, given the density of PLAAF and PLAN military bases created within its waters."
In the case of “Mao’s heir” Xi, although almost all such activity remains hidden from the outside world, criticism of the functioning of the Office of the General Secretary (OGS) has been growing inside the higher ranks of the CCP.
More than the party secretariat or the civilian side of the central government, it is the military that has the most influence in the thinking of the present 🇨🇳 CCP General Secretary.
Read 14 tweets
Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This is my assessment since Dec 2021 (see pinned tweet) on Russia's plan.
There won't be any peace negotiations no matter how often Germany & France (small-size countries in Europe have no geopolitical weight) call Putin. Once Russia establishes control over Donbas & reaches its war goals in the this phase, Moscow will unilaterally declare ceasefire.
Preventing Russia from winning in this critical phase of the war requires the heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine to sustain the Russian attacks. If Ukraine has to give up on territories in Donbas for the sake of Western appeasement, this won't stop the war. On the opposite.
Read 26 tweets
#VoicesfromRussia #USA #China #Ukraine #EU #Russia #Geopolitics

Joseph Biden has confirmed the readiness of the US to go to war with China in the event of its attempt to regain control of Taiwan by force. In other words,
the U.S. confirms its military guarantees to the Taipei regime twice in less than a year (the first time immediately after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan).
Interestingly, Washington has not given such guarantees to Ukraine, which has been recognised as an independent state. But they are given to Taiwan, which the US itself considers part of China and does not recognise its sovereignty. At first glance this appears
Read 9 tweets
In the first world, you can do a lot with this kind of degree.
Many political science graduates can find work as a journalist/editor/ reporter with the newspapers, or work as a consultant with the electronic and social media groups,
or as a social-cultural and /or political experts with the advertising firms, or get work at some media campaign advisory and publicity firm!
Read 13 tweets
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of #runoff of the central bank’s balance sheet.
As previously suggested by the #Fed’s March minutes, the pace of runoff was confirmed today as $95 billion/month ($60 billion in U.S. #Treasuries and $35 billion in Agency #MBS, with a three-month phase-in period.
Also as expected, the statement reiterated that the #FOMC “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” underscoring the seriousness of #Fed policymakers in getting #inflation and inflation expectations under control.
Read 16 tweets
The #West continue to fill the pockets of @Zelensky, who has $850m stashed offshore and no incentive to negotiate for peace as arms & money pour into #Ukraine. Let #Donbas go with #Crimea and stop pushing for #WWIII. The West must obviously want #war with #Russia.
#AnnaMoskwa has zero comprehension of #geopolitics. She wants the #EU to penalize countries that use roubles to pay for #Russian gas. To think that refusing to buy Russian #energy will bring #Putin to his knees pleading for mercy is just absurd.…
#Zelensky has over $800m in offshore accounts while demanding $7bn/month in aid. The #IMF cut off #Ukraine because it is so #corrupt. You cannot do business in Ukraine! NOTHING @ZelenskyyUa says can be verified independently and he will say whatever to keep the money pouring in.
Read 7 tweets
We are LIVE tweeting the conversation between .@WBHoekstra and Harsh V Pant.

Stay tuned for updates!

Watch the session LIVE here:

#Raisina2022 #RaisinaDialogue #TerraNova
.@WBHoekstra: The most important conversation that we are having now across #Europe is about the #Ukrainian crisis—the blatant breach of international law—and we stand shoulder to shoulder with #Ukraine in this period of crisis.

Read 13 tweets
1/There are many views of the world (Brzezinski's Grand Chessboard being one). In Europe & the Anglophone world we live supposedly in liberal democracies (contestable after the last 2+ yrs) - the "developed world".
2/ Perhaps, arguably, the two dominant worldviews could be labelled 'Growthism' (globalized capitalism, i.e., corporatism) versus 'Conservationism' (i.e., arguments for a centrally-planned, steady-state economy.) The latter espousing a Malthusian worldview.
3/ Two diametrically opposing views on resource management, i.e. extraction, distribution etc. The former connotes development, arguably (perhaps idealistically) in pursuit of improved human welfare. The latter connotes constraint - "there's not enough to go around".
Read 20 tweets
A few months ago, #markets expected U.S. #inflation to peak by mid-2022 at around 7% to 8% at the headline level and then anticipated that generalized #price gains would decline into year end, closing the year around 4%.
However, the tragic war now unfolding with Russia’s attack upon Ukraine has not only sent #energy prices skyrocketing but it has led to much greater uncertainty over #economic growth and #MonetaryPolicy reaction functions, in Europe and indeed around the world.
Core #CPI (excluding volatile #food and #energy components) came in at 0.5% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, headline CPI data printed at 0.8% month-over-month and came in at 7.9% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since January 1982.
Read 17 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents "Convoy" Tuesday at 1:15pm PT.

Stay tuned here for live updates!

#macro #markets #inflation #geopolitics #Fed #Canada #RussiaUkraine #rates #recession #stocks #bonds #commodities
Jeffrey Gundlach: "Convoy" has two meanings. Inspired by Canadian truckers go angry enough to take things in their own hands.
Jeffrey Gundlach: The other meaning is the runaway convoy of the commodity market.
Read 61 tweets
#Phytopathology, #wheat, #geopolitics & #Russia: a thread 🧵
(1) China just lifts restrictions on imports of Russian wheat if used only for processing purposes. This boost to exports was agreed in a deal established... a few days before Ukraine invasion.
(2) The first day of the Ukraine invasion (24 February), an analyst said that China expands market for Russian wheat was “unrelated to Ukraine situation”. Still, this perfect timing suggests that Russia has anticipated the international sanctions.…
(3) This sequence perfectly illustrates the links existing between geopolitics, food security, and – more unexpectedly – plant health and phytopathology. Yet, this link is a recurrent one in our modern history.
Read 17 tweets
While I continue to hope for regime change in #Russia, I worry about what may come in the weeks ahead absent more Western military intervention. If it comes down to some form of a settlement, a #thread of #maps to contemplate in the days ahead / 1
First, #geopolitics of Russia. Southern and Eastern border protected by mountains. Ural mtns separate Moscow from inner lands. Hard to navigate Northern seas in the Artic. Historically, least protected on Western or S. Western border (Alexander the Great, Napoleon, Nazis) / 2
In thinking about historical Russian view of security on Western borders, consider a “line” from St. Petersburg to Rostov-on-Don during 4 periods: (1) the Russian empire in 1914 /3
Read 22 tweets
Understanding the #Russia #sanctions debate in brief!

Financial and Economic Sanctions against #Iran cutting it off from global finance and trade rank 9/10

#Russian sanctions only 5/10 for now.

A lot of room to tighten the noose, of which cutting off #SWIFT is only one part
ALL #Russian banks, big and small, need blocking sanctions. This needs to include the Central Bank of Russia, mirroring the case with current sanctions that operate against #Iran, which has also been kicked off #SWIFT. Only humanitarian, medical & food import funds to be allowed!
The ONLY remaining reason the #EU countries are resisting cutting off #SWIFT and going as far as in the case of #Iran, which is what we need to do, is because we fear (know) #Putin will immediately cut off gas supplies.

Our need for #Russian gas and the #SWIFT issue inseperable
Read 14 tweets
BREAKING: A gloomy, overcast day in #Kiev. #Ukraine's capital stands precariously at the edge of #war. #Russian president Vladimir #Putin declared a military offensive earlier today. There are reports of shelling, air strikes and casualties across Ukraine. A developing 🧵. 1/
Speaking to @SkyNewsBreak, a former Vice PM of #Ukraine warned that Putin won't stop at Kyiv. She reported shelling and bombing in Kyiv, where she resides, and appealed for swift, decisive action from the West. Notably, she mentioned the #SWIFT payments system as a tool. 2/
No one can doubt the resolve of the Ukrainian people in the face of adversity. But their #military is no match for #Russia. So cutting them off from the SWIFT payments settlement system could force the Russians into stepping back. But will the #US and #EU take that step? 3/
Read 62 tweets
🇷🇺aggression towards 🇺🇦has severe consequences for European security architecture and it will be felt in other geopolitical sensible regions 🧵 1/1
such as the European Arctic, which is seeing a heightening of military build-up, tensions, and competition over resources for some years now...
@epc event on climate insecurity and geopolitics in the Arctic offered a comprehensive picture of the current situation in the Arctic and its interlink with what is happening in Donbas
Read 10 tweets
#Ukraine Crisis !!!

How President Putin has come out Victorious without firing a single bullet !!!

Let me give you insight on Ukraine Crisis which is dominating Geo Politics since 3 months, taking the world to brinks of 3rd World War.

Let's first start with Why is Ukraine important? And Why does Ukraine matter?

Ukraine is one of the biggest countries in Europe on territorial basis with 41 million highly educated people strongly motivated to work.

But that's not all.

How Ukraine ranks!!!
1st in Europe in recoverable reserves of Uranium Ores.

2nd in Europe & 10th in World in Titanium Ore reserves.

2nd in World in Manganese Ores Reserves (2.3 billion tons or 12% of world's reserves).

2nd largest Iron Ore reserves in world(30 billion tons).
Read 37 tweets
LONG Thread :

#Ukraine Crisis !!! How President Putin has come out Victorious without firing a single bullet !!!

Let me give you insight on Ukraine Crisis which is dominating Geo Politics since 3 months, taking the world to brinks of 3rd World War.


Let's first start with Why is Ukraine important? And Why does Ukraine matter?

Ukraine is one of the biggest countries in Europe on territorial basis with 41 million highly educated people strongly motivated to work.

But that's not all.

How Ukraine ranks:

1st in Europe in recoverable reserves of Uranium Ores

2nd in Europe & 10th in World in Titanium Ore reserves

2nd in World in Manganese Ores Reserves (2.3 billion tons or 12% of world's reserves)

2nd largest Iron Ore reserves in world(30 billion tons)
Read 37 tweets
1. Some rambling thoughts that occur to me as I ponder the #UkraineCrisis: A Geopolitical Tweet Thread of Uncertain Proportions.

I really fail to understand the number of people I see actually defending #Russia re: #Ukraine.
2. #Russia has security concerns. I agree. History and geography necessitates they are going to be wary of being attacked, particularly across the North European Plain.
3. But if you want to keep your neighbors out of a rival alliance, invading, seizing territories, ignoring security guarantees previously given, interfering with their internal affairs, and massing hundreds of thousands of troops on their borders doesn't seem like the best method
Read 24 tweets
Which is the greater military power: #PRC with 60,000 troops massed on India’s border(for ~2 years) or #RF with 100,000 troops massed on Ukraine border(for ~ 2 months)?
2/rus #Russian massing of troops around Ukraine is not just a message to #USA and #Europe, but also to #China and #India, not to write off its Military power & ability to use it; even though Russia’s economic power is now much less than that of USA, EU, China, India.🧐🤔
3/rus The #Russian’s have learned from the #PRC aggression against India in 2020, which rapidly lost credibility after Galwan. They have done everything to ensure that the threat of invasion is credible enough to achieve their coercive objectives without fighting.
Read 57 tweets
Trataré de explicar por qué vamos encaminados a un conflicto bélico de gran tamaño en no mucho tiempo (en esta década, puede que en un horizonte menor a dos años), algo sobre lo que llevo intentando escribir los últimos cinco años de mi vida y espero poder terminar por fin este. Image
Así que olvidémonos de encuestas demoscópicas de política nacional, de tablas de proyección económica, de futuros desarrollos tecnológicos o de quién va primero en la liga de turno, porque nada de eso importa. Image
Estamos en el punto de no retorno y lo que pensemos sobre el futuro tiene todo el aspecto de que va a cambiar. Seguramente no podemos imaginar hasta qué punto.
Read 60 tweets

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