Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ns2
Most recents (24)
Der #KritisThread. 🧵@AG_KRITIS Manuel Atug @HonkHase im @DLF über die #NS2-Bomber:
• Professionell
• kann jeder gewesen sein. Indizienlage zu schwach, um darüber Aussagen zu machen.
• wie verhindern? „EE, kleine, dezentrale Generatoren“.
Let‘s agree to disagree. Why?
1/15
• Professionell
• kann jeder gewesen sein. Indizienlage zu schwach, um darüber Aussagen zu machen.
• wie verhindern? „EE, kleine, dezentrale Generatoren“.
Let‘s agree to disagree. Why?
1/15
Wie gut kritische dezentrale EE-Infrastruktur geschützt ist, zeigt ebenfalls das Beispiel #Ukraine: dort liegen d EE-Boomregionen in den südöstlichen Steppenzonen, die auch vom Krieg am meisten betroffen sind. 50-90% der EE-Infrastruktur zerstört. evwind.es/2022/10/23/ukr….
2/15
2/15
Ironischerweise sind es die zentralistischen & von vielen als Risiko Nr. 1 betrachteten 3 westukrainischen AKW (+ viele NSD), die derzeit den Laden zusammenhalten. Die 3 laufenden sind zwar „zentralistisch“, aber eben auch einfacher zu schützen, *wenn* man vorbereitet ist.
3/15
3/15
1/14 Ist es die Aufgabe der Russen das #Putin-Regime zu stürzen? 🧵
2/14 Oft hört man Klagen darüber, dass nicht nur die einfachen Russen, sondern auch die Führer der liberalen Opposition nicht gegen das #Putin-Regime auf die Straße gehen.
Nachdem die Rede von Viola von Cramon-Taubadel auf dem #bdk22 der GRÜNEN viral ging, habe ich mir die #Nordstream-Timeline genauer Angesehen. In diesem Thread gebe ich einen Überblick über die geopolitischen Interessen beteiligter Spieler & enthülle die polnischen Kollegen.
1/n
1/n
Zu den Hintergründen:
#Nordstream2 und die deutsch-russische Freundschaft war den Geostrategen der USA schon immer ein Dorn im Auge. Eine enge Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem Land mit den Rohstoffen und dem Land mit dem Know-How stellt eine Bedrohung für das Imperium #USA dar.
2/n
#Nordstream2 und die deutsch-russische Freundschaft war den Geostrategen der USA schon immer ein Dorn im Auge. Eine enge Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem Land mit den Rohstoffen und dem Land mit dem Know-How stellt eine Bedrohung für das Imperium #USA dar.
2/n
Viel lieber hätten die #USA #Erdgas aus eigener Förderung an #Deutschland verkauft - die geht nämlich durch die Decke:
3/n
3/n
#Germany needs change.
But what is the change it needs?
In this new piece for @IPQuarterly I argue that rather than narrowly or introvertedly focusing on defence, 🇩🇪 (& its partners) need a #Zeitenwende that is:
▶️International
▶️Societal
🧵1/
ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…
But what is the change it needs?
In this new piece for @IPQuarterly I argue that rather than narrowly or introvertedly focusing on defence, 🇩🇪 (& its partners) need a #Zeitenwende that is:
▶️International
▶️Societal
🧵1/
ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…
Defence & the role of the military have (understandably) hogged the headlines since Chancellor #Scholz' 27/02 speech that seemed to herald a new approach.
- But the 100bn EUR special fund to plug some of the most glaring (military) gaps isn't enough
2/
ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…
- But the 100bn EUR special fund to plug some of the most glaring (military) gaps isn't enough
2/
ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…
to touch the sides of the Bundeswehr's shortcomings and won't help #Germany consistently meet its #NATO 2% target beyond 2025.
Nonetheless, #Scholz has claimed that 🇩🇪has already made a "fundamental change"
3/
bundesregierung.de/breg-en/search…
Nonetheless, #Scholz has claimed that 🇩🇪has already made a "fundamental change"
3/
bundesregierung.de/breg-en/search…
Sweden, Denmark and Norway block Nord Stream AG from examining Nordstream pipeline.
thelocal.dk/20221005/swede…
#Nordstream1 #NordStream2 #NordstreamLeaks #nordstreampipeline #NS1 #NS2 #Nordstream #Russia #NATO
thelocal.dk/20221005/swede…
#Nordstream1 #NordStream2 #NordstreamLeaks #nordstreampipeline #NS1 #NS2 #Nordstream #Russia #NATO
Kremlin: Russia must be part of Nord Stream pipeline probe
reuters.com/world/europe/k…
reuters.com/world/europe/k…
Sweden sends diving vessel to probe leaking Nord Stream pipelines
reuters.com/business/energ…
reuters.com/business/energ…
Leider wird sich irgendwann herausstellen, das es die #Russen selbst waren, die #Northstream sabotiert haben denn folgendes spricht objektiv dafür:
• #NS2 ist zu 50% einsatzbereit während #NS1 nun ausgefallen ist, denn bei NS2 wurde lediglich ein Rohr gesprengt. Ziel: Doch noch
• #NS2 ist zu 50% einsatzbereit während #NS1 nun ausgefallen ist, denn bei NS2 wurde lediglich ein Rohr gesprengt. Ziel: Doch noch
eine Betriebsgenehmigung bekommen, damit sich Investitionen rentieren. NS2 kann aktuell gut 80% der Leistung von NS1 erreichen, ein Kuhhandel.
• Russland hat nach der Farce mit der #Turbine und der folgenden Wartungsstory nun den Hahn von NS1 endgültig geschlossen, ist aber
• Russland hat nach der Farce mit der #Turbine und der folgenden Wartungsstory nun den Hahn von NS1 endgültig geschlossen, ist aber
laut Verträgen eigentlich verpflichtet zu liefern. Es stehen #Milliarden an Vertragsstrafen im Raum, allerdings nicht bei Wagniswegfall (kaputter #Infrastruktur).
• Jetzt hat Russland einen guten Grund die Lieferung von Gas auch über die Alternative #Jamal-Pipeline über
• Jetzt hat Russland einen guten Grund die Lieferung von Gas auch über die Alternative #Jamal-Pipeline über
🧵🚨 Gazprom 🇷🇺rejects Naftogaz 🇺🇦 demand for arbitration due to "unfriendly" arbitration environment in Switzerland 🇨🇭. This means we might be looking at ZERO #Russia gas to Europe this winter. 1/x
3 #NordStream pipes are severely damaged due to this week's explosions, technically 1 pipe of #NS2 could work, but not likely anytime soon. Hard to imagine #Germany 🇩🇪 will agree to use it. 2/x
tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/eu-…
tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/eu-…
We were already looking at no gas via #NordStream this winter, but adding a 2009 Russo-Ukraine gas dispute style event is cause for concern for some EU member states, like #Italy 🇮🇹 when they are in process of forming their next government. 3/x
(1/5) Der zynische Idealzustand vollständiger Erpressbarkeit - das russ. günstige #Gas war pures Gift in #US-Augen, es garantierte wirtschaftl. #Konkurrenzfähigkeit & relative Unabhängigkeit von #NATO/#US-Interessen - #Putin, wie war der Name? ...
(2/5) .... #Sanktionen gg #China, sind jederzeit willkommen, sonst ist der #Flüssiggas/#LNG-Hahn schneller abgedreht, als man sich das vorzustellen vermag.
Im Klartext: würde D jetzt versuchen ins Gespräch mit #Putin zu kommen, hieße das für #Washington u.U....
Im Klartext: würde D jetzt versuchen ins Gespräch mit #Putin zu kommen, hieße das für #Washington u.U....
(3/5) ... erweiterte (nach #NS1 & #NS2 Sabotage) feindselige Aktionen gg D via #Ukraine und innerdeutschen öko-(+/-)rechtsradik. #Terrorismus, #Polen|s (dann #US)-unterstützte #Reparationsforderung, neue #Migrationsströme und - natürlich - ausbleibende #Gaslieferungen. ...
So it looks like someone committed a terrorist attack and a defacto declaration of war, against both the European economy and Russia. Wonder which submarine equipped power could have done it? 🤔
#USA #Russia #Ukraine #EU #EUpoli #WorldPoli #terrorism
forbes.com/sites/michaels…
#USA #Russia #Ukraine #EU #EUpoli #WorldPoli #terrorism
forbes.com/sites/michaels…
A former Polish Defense Minister, Radek Sikorski, has attributed to the United States the sabotage of two pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and 2, which carry natural gas from #Russia to #Germany.
#USA #Ukraine #EU #EUpoli #WorldPoli
#USA #Ukraine #EU #EUpoli #WorldPoli
Poland’s Secretary of State denounced Sikorki’s claim as “Russian #propaganda,” calling it “a smear campaign against Poland, the US and Ukraine, accusing the West of aggression against #NS1 and #NS2.
But Russia literally controls the taps, so self-sabotage claim makes no sense!
But Russia literally controls the taps, so self-sabotage claim makes no sense!
My take on #NordStream explosions 💥 3 total leaks, 2 on #NS1, 1 on #NS2. Neither CURRENTLY in use to ship gas due to breakdown in relations btwn #Russia & #Europe over #RussiaUkraineWar 1/8
#NordStream leaks are near #Bornholm, #Denmark. 12 nautical miles from international waters, 70 meters deep = dive-able 🤿 2/8
Very hard to imagine that this was an accident, deep sea pipeline leaks are pretty rare. It is likely sabotage. Could be divers, likely not a spy submarine for a variety of reasons #NordStream 3/8
Less than 4️⃣ years after the @BalticPipe_PL construction agreement was signed the #BalticPipe project is about to become operational on Oct 1 & will be filled with as much gas as is needed to make 🇵🇱 independent from 🇷🇺
This is why it's of key importance, a🧵:
#BeLikePoland
This is why it's of key importance, a🧵:
#BeLikePoland
#BalticPipe is a strategic #gas infrastructure project with the goal of creating a new supply corridor in 🇪🇺 market. The new pipeline will allow transport of gas from 🇳🇴 to the 🇩🇰 and 🇵🇱 markets, as well as to end users in neighboring countries.
#BeLikePoland #EnergyIndependence
#BeLikePoland #EnergyIndependence
Cosa aggiungere❓
Putin : "We are not building anything for no reason. We have received and perfected the necessary technology. We will turn on Nord Stream 2 if necessary"
tass.com/economy/1504103
tass.com/economy/1504103
Mr. Kubicki‘s call for opening #NS2 is exclusively his own personal opinion. He speaks neither on behalf of the German Bundestag nor on behalf of the German Free Democratic Party @fdp. Quite to the contrary: 1/3
The German Liberals stand firm in their unwavering support for our 🇺🇦 liberal friends and @ALDEParty partners in fighting Russia‘s illegal aggression. Opening #NS2 would be a fatal mistake, repeating wrong choices from the past. 2/3
It would be a triumph for Putin and a slap in the face of the 🇺🇦 people, fighting for their survival against a brutal aggressor. 🇩🇪 Liberals continue to call for support to 🇺🇦 in all possible ways, including further and more supply of heavy weapons. 3/3
1/10
#NS2 Nord Stream 2 jest nadal w rozgrywce - choć my chcielibyśmy bardzo odczarować rzeczywistość - Raz że rura stoi - znaczy leży, dwa że #Niemcy nie mają skąd wypełnić powstałej luki gazowej tej zimy i widzą że są na sznurze energetycznym Moskwy.
Sprawa jest prosta- 20-25%
#NS2 Nord Stream 2 jest nadal w rozgrywce - choć my chcielibyśmy bardzo odczarować rzeczywistość - Raz że rura stoi - znaczy leży, dwa że #Niemcy nie mają skąd wypełnić powstałej luki gazowej tej zimy i widzą że są na sznurze energetycznym Moskwy.
Sprawa jest prosta- 20-25%
2/10
niemieckiego miksu energetycznego zasila gaz. Ok 35% tego gazu szło z Rosji na którą postawiono z powodu ceny, zamykania potencjału przez Niderlandy i stałe wolumeny z Norwegii. Realnie tanio i dużo oferowała tylko Rosja.
Niemcy postawili również na rury - bo rurami można
niemieckiego miksu energetycznego zasila gaz. Ok 35% tego gazu szło z Rosji na którą postawiono z powodu ceny, zamykania potencjału przez Niderlandy i stałe wolumeny z Norwegii. Realnie tanio i dużo oferowała tylko Rosja.
Niemcy postawili również na rury - bo rurami można
3/10
najwięcej i najtaniej. Zrobiono to pomimo licznych kontrowersji wobec tematu "Rosja i traktowanie sąsiedzkich byłych SSR, opozycji, publicystów, wolności słowa, praw człowieka etc etc"
Transformacja Energiwiende wygaszanie atomu i węgla docelowo miały zwiększyć ilość gazu
najwięcej i najtaniej. Zrobiono to pomimo licznych kontrowersji wobec tematu "Rosja i traktowanie sąsiedzkich byłych SSR, opozycji, publicystów, wolności słowa, praw człowieka etc etc"
Transformacja Energiwiende wygaszanie atomu i węgla docelowo miały zwiększyć ilość gazu
🧵 [1] ALERT: Kremlin-controlled #Gazprom informed #Polish & #Bulgarian officials that it suspended natural gas deliveries to both countries, once again demonstrating how #Moscow continues to weaponize energy against Europe.
👇Details below & in thread👇
apnews.com/article/russia…
👇Details below & in thread👇
apnews.com/article/russia…
[2] 👀 First, the latest flow rates reported by the EU @ENTSOG natural gas network flow transparency portal. According to ENTSOG, Gazprom physical flows at the Kondratki entry point to the Yamal transmission pipeline at the Poland-Belarus border is near zero:
[3] 👀 Meanwhile, @ENTSOG shows the gas flows across at Strandzha-2 interconnector, the entry point of Gazprom’s #TurkStream2 pipeline to the Bulgarian gas transmission system operated by #Bulgartransgaz sharply decreasing in last few days:
#Niemcy: radykalna rewizja polityki względem Rosji ⬇️
Rząd Olafa Scholza zawiesił proces certyfikacji gazociągu #NS2, zgodził się na wykluczenie wybranych rosyjskich banków z systemu rozliczeń SWIFT i zaoferował dostawy uzbrojenia dla Ukrainy.
1/4
osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/…
Rząd Olafa Scholza zawiesił proces certyfikacji gazociągu #NS2, zgodził się na wykluczenie wybranych rosyjskich banków z systemu rozliczeń SWIFT i zaoferował dostawy uzbrojenia dla Ukrainy.
1/4
osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/…
Na specjalnym posiedzeniu Bundestagu 27 lutego kanclerz ogłosił także kluczowe w tym kontekście decyzje dotyczące polityki krajowej Niemiec – zgodę na radykalne zwiększenie wydatków na obronę i na budowę terminali LNG.
2/4
2/4
Zmiany są gwałtowne, wymuszone skalą i brutalnością rosyjskiej agresji oraz naciskami partnerów i sojuszników w UE i NATO. Broniąca się Ukraina ma ogromne poparcie w niemieckim społeczeństwie.
3/4
3/4
QUESTION: now that 🇩🇪 halted certification of #NordStream2 will it cause gas shortages in Europe?
ANSWER: no.
in 2021, ~40 BCM of gas arrived in 🇪🇺 via #Ukraine 🇺🇦 (that's roughly equivalent to 🇩🇪's total gas consumption)
0 BCM of gas was transited to 🇪🇺 via #NS2
🧵THREAD
ANSWER: no.
in 2021, ~40 BCM of gas arrived in 🇪🇺 via #Ukraine 🇺🇦 (that's roughly equivalent to 🇩🇪's total gas consumption)
0 BCM of gas was transited to 🇪🇺 via #NS2
🧵THREAD
NS2 was never going to bring new gas to 🇪🇺
It's a question of simple arithmetic.
🟨 total gas exports from 🇷🇺 to 🇪🇺 in 2021 = 140 bcm
🟨 maximum gas exports from 🇷🇺 to 🇪🇺 estimated at ~200 bcm by Gazprom itself
🟨 total existing transit capacity to bring 🇷🇺 gas to 🇪🇺 = 266 bcm
It's a question of simple arithmetic.
🟨 total gas exports from 🇷🇺 to 🇪🇺 in 2021 = 140 bcm
🟨 maximum gas exports from 🇷🇺 to 🇪🇺 estimated at ~200 bcm by Gazprom itself
🟨 total existing transit capacity to bring 🇷🇺 gas to 🇪🇺 = 266 bcm
The gas crunch in Europe is a consequence of discretionary and deliberate efforts by Gazprom.
Don't take our word for it, just ask @fbirol of @IEA - the most respected international body, staunchly neutral, always objective and data-driven
theguardian.com/business/2022/…
Don't take our word for it, just ask @fbirol of @IEA - the most respected international body, staunchly neutral, always objective and data-driven
theguardian.com/business/2022/…
👇👇👇 THREAD:
[1] 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 Germany’s announcement it has suspended certification of Kremlin’s #NordStream2 pipeline was an urgently needed step given Russia’s overt invasion of Ukraine’s Donbas region. Welcome & long overdue.
[1] 🇺🇸🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 Germany’s announcement it has suspended certification of Kremlin’s #NordStream2 pipeline was an urgently needed step given Russia’s overt invasion of Ukraine’s Donbas region. Welcome & long overdue.
[2] Suspending the certification process for #NordStream2 should be seen as a first step by Berlin in deterring further Russian military action against Ukraine, followed by further action to block the pipeline for good.
[3] Berlin should next seek sanctions at the EU level ensuring that the Kremlin-backed #NordStream2 can never come online and be allowed to do lasting harm to European energy security and Ukrainian national security interests in the process.
@imetatronink Several notes:
1. Using gold in IMS (directly) as monetary payment is no go. It is forbiden by IMF rules. Even RF, its CB, is not gonna to walk that path.
1. Using gold in IMS (directly) as monetary payment is no go. It is forbiden by IMF rules. Even RF, its CB, is not gonna to walk that path.
@imetatronink 2. The Russia can not "announce" seling oil for gold. Semi independent private companies swll to market, long term contracts,...
3. Oil producers do coordinate their policies. Only KSA has the power to rump up/down the production to move markets.
3. Oil producers do coordinate their policies. Only KSA has the power to rump up/down the production to move markets.
@imetatronink 4. The IMS is changing (slooowly, hard to notice) from $ based to Multi-polar Multi-reserve Monetary system. There are 3 main assets / Mundel's ccy areas -$, €, ¥. Gold will play wider rule in future as more active nutral rsrv asset.
83/ War is brewing in Europe.
Napoleon, 18thC : The Russians have General Winter.
Brussels, 21st C : The Russians have General Gas. Churn out Heat Pumps! Speed up Home Insulations! ft.com/content/a0dab1…
Napoleon, 18thC : The Russians have General Winter.
Brussels, 21st C : The Russians have General Gas. Churn out Heat Pumps! Speed up Home Insulations! ft.com/content/a0dab1…
84/ With forecasts of cold weather and a hot war, Energy markets are VOLATILE right now. A wild day in US Gas Markets with prices doubling and then crashing back down. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
85/ Texas is facing an Arctic blast this week.
Like last year it could freeze oil and gas production, potentially causing another supply shock. Without heat ppl die in homes. Even without the destabilized Climate, gas is unsafe if regulators are captured bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Like last year it could freeze oil and gas production, potentially causing another supply shock. Without heat ppl die in homes. Even without the destabilized Climate, gas is unsafe if regulators are captured bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇺🇸🇪🇺 [1] With Washington once again focusing on policy options to stop the Kremlin-backed NordStream2 pipeline this week, my attempt at a (hopefully thoughtful) thread to help provide context:
[2] The framing of NordStream2 sanctions has suddenly (and unfortunately) become partisan, but in fact, opposition to NS2 has been bipartisan since 2015, and support for sanctions has been led by Democrats and Republicans since 2017.
[3] The US has opposed #NordStream2 on bipartisan basis since 2015. Congress has passed both discretionary (2017 CAATSA) & mandatory (2019 & 2020 NDAA) sanctions to stop #NS2 on near unanimous basis. In 2016, VP Biden was first prominent senior official to publicly oppose NS2.
1/6🤦🏻♂️If true (still hop it's not) this would again wreck 🇩🇪 reputation for a domestic publicity stunt.
1️⃣🇷🇺 doesn't want to talk to 🇩🇪, their demands are addressed to 🇺🇸.
2️⃣ to change this 🇪🇺 would have to be structurally capable to act in the fields ... bild.de/bild-plus/poli…
1️⃣🇷🇺 doesn't want to talk to 🇩🇪, their demands are addressed to 🇺🇸.
2️⃣ to change this 🇪🇺 would have to be structurally capable to act in the fields ... bild.de/bild-plus/poli…
2/6 ... 🇷🇺 is interested in dealing with like military support to 🇺🇦, strategic armaments, force posture in Europe. In all of this the #SPD is actually blocking 🇩🇪 from becoming an actor...
3️⃣ #Putin is not interested in Resets. He demands results, the ones 🇩🇪 can't deliver.
3️⃣ #Putin is not interested in Resets. He demands results, the ones 🇩🇪 can't deliver.
3/6 4️⃣ Unilateral outreach only undermines cohesion in 🇪🇺, especially if - as in this case - the exact objective of discussion is kept secret. See for corresponding attempts in the past. None of which produced results other than alienating allies in Brussels.
#BREAKING
WH issues readout of US Nat'l Security Advisor #JakeSullivan's conversation today with #Russia's presidential foreign policy advisor, #YuriyUshakov, re: Russia and #Ukraine.
#Ushakov #Putin #Zelensky
WH issues readout of US Nat'l Security Advisor #JakeSullivan's conversation today with #Russia's presidential foreign policy advisor, #YuriyUshakov, re: Russia and #Ukraine.
#Ushakov #Putin #Zelensky
#BREAKING
WH / US Nat'l Security Council spokesperson issues readout of US Nat'l Security Advisor #JakeSullivan conversation today with nat'l security advisors, foreign ministers & other officials from #BucharestNine of #NATO Allies re: #Russia & #Ukraine.
#B9 #Putin #Zelensky
WH / US Nat'l Security Council spokesperson issues readout of US Nat'l Security Advisor #JakeSullivan conversation today with nat'l security advisors, foreign ministers & other officials from #BucharestNine of #NATO Allies re: #Russia & #Ukraine.
#B9 #Putin #Zelensky
#BREAKING
WH / US Nat'l Security Council spokesperson issues readout of US Nat'l Security Advisor #JakeSullivan's conversation today with #Russia's foreign policy advisor to the president, #YuriyUshakov.
#Putin #Zelensky #Ukraine #Ushakov
WH / US Nat'l Security Council spokesperson issues readout of US Nat'l Security Advisor #JakeSullivan's conversation today with #Russia's foreign policy advisor to the president, #YuriyUshakov.
#Putin #Zelensky #Ukraine #Ushakov
#BREAKING
Nat'l Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne issues readout of Nat'l Security Advisor #JakeSullivan's conversation today with #Ukrain's head of presidential office, #AndriyYermak.
#Russia
Nat'l Security Council Spokesperson Emily Horne issues readout of Nat'l Security Advisor #JakeSullivan's conversation today with #Ukrain's head of presidential office, #AndriyYermak.
#Russia
