Thread by @StuartLothian

Hard factual headlines will follow this one:

"Tories have maxed up UK state debt by 2.5 times in just 9 and half years!" This is unprecedented in peacetime!

1/15

"Despite #Tory #Lies to the contrary? UK #economy is flat on its back, and likely to fall further - GDP was just 0.1% in the 6 months to 30sep19 being our worst showing since the financial crash!"

2/15

GDP(Gross Domestic Product) = total output of UK #economy, on which vital tax-take depends. HMG needs our tax (from companies, employees, householders) to fund OUR public services. Flat GDP growth (low % uplift) means less capability to fund services on which we depend!

3/15

IF our GDP 'output increase' goes 'into 2 qtrs decrease' ie Reverse, we enter technical #recession (as many expect in 2020/21).

Spoiler! We can't rely on being in serial 'up-stocking pre-#EU leave deadline mode' to sustain our economy, for ever? Can we? Reality postponed?

4/15

Ideally HMG would take in from tax 'a little more than it spends annually' meaning that some (net) state debt could be repaid! In reality, despite #austerity! HMG has spent MORE THAN Tax-take, each year! for 10 years! At what point does this become judged irresponsible?

5/15

It's true that the rate of state debt-building has slowed (see below) at the expense of less #Police & #NHS staff etc. But imagine what restoring THOSE would cost? without higher taxes? 6/15

Going into #GE2019 with 2 major parties promising MORE spending is deeply worrying! much as some of that IS needed! So, can any such promises be trusted? If those were (even partly?) fulfilled? Could they be afforded against the recent record of building unrepayable debt?

7/15

UK debt v annual GDP has grown alarmingly - SINCE the financial crash! I put this down to 2 factors: 1/ under-estimating the true impact of that crash & 2/ Tory economic mismanagement. 8/15

Recent surveys of biz/consumer confidence have found those to be 'flat/falling'. Uncertainty re Brexit timing has been blamed? Also, impact of biz/human #Brexodus is clearly weighing on UK sentiment, GDP & taxtake! Who wants to invest/spend in a place others are quitting?

9/15

On advice from folk like @johnredwood & JRM - many UK investors have felt forced to weight their savings/pension portfolios well away from the UK. The slo-mo investment train crash we're witnessing (over 4 years, now!) is inevitably taking its toll (on US!) #Consequences!

10/15

@johnredwood With former top @Conservatives like @DavidGauke @DominicGrieve1 warning of #NoDealBrexit come Dec2020 - IF Tories win #GE2019? Ask yourself what THIS prospect would do for OUR economy, next year, after the present grind down of 2015-19? You've got it! #Brexodus #recession

11/15

@johnredwood @Conservatives @DavidGauke @DominicGrieve1 And senior @LibDems @joswinson @EdwardJDavey @thomasbrake @ChukaUmunna @SamGyimah have been on this for weeks! They KNOW an #EU trade deal can't be done in 11 mths, so we're being set up AGAIN! for #NoDealBrexit wef 31dec20. UK Economy won't take another year like 2019!

12/15

@johnredwood @Conservatives @DavidGauke @DominicGrieve1 @LibDems @joswinson @EdwardJDavey @thomasbrake @ChukaUmunna @SamGyimah Because UK has systematically under-invested in #infrastructure #education #training #skills #innovation - we still suffer a material productivity disadvantage v our #G20 peers. 13/15

@johnredwood @Conservatives @DavidGauke @DominicGrieve1 @LibDems @joswinson @EdwardJDavey @thomasbrake @ChukaUmunna @SamGyimah UK's visible trade deficit (products) is stuck on £30+bn. per qtr or c5+% of GDP! This huge imbalance is mitigated by our Services trade surplus. But picture any USA trade deal? They already ship us 10% more than we do them, and would dump loads more! For WHAT from us?

14/15

@johnredwood @Conservatives @DavidGauke @DominicGrieve1 @LibDems @joswinson @EdwardJDavey @thomasbrake @ChukaUmunna @SamGyimah A major missing element from any #Leave case -

"what will we sell more of (than we already do!) to anyone outside of #EU27, to compensate for the exports to EU we'll lose by leaving?"

No answers, after nearly 4 years?

15/15

@johnredwood @Conservatives @DavidGauke @DominicGrieve1 @LibDems @joswinson @EdwardJDavey @thomasbrake @ChukaUmunna @SamGyimah ps. after #financial #economic #trade stuff, an important footnote that's ZILCH to do with numbers!

@SimonUbsdell made some tweets about alienation felt by his loved one, in Brexit Britain! I dedicate THIS to Simon & his Family. Human issues transcend most of my £££ obsessions!