Thread by @NicholasAHeras

1/#Turkey had well established "soft power" lines of influence throughout the Greater #MiddleEast (North #Africa, Horn of Africa, Eastern #Mediterranean, etc.).

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1210606674018537472

2/But now #Turkish leaders are ready to assume greater risk to assert overt military power in an expeditionary manner to expand #Turkey's influence, and therefore leverage, on conflicts beyond the country's near abroad (#Libya being farther than say #Cyprus or #Syria).

3/However #Turkish leaders don't want to risk significant casualties to their own forces in these expeditionary ops, whether far away like in #Libya or closer to home like in #Syria, when #Turkey's military has spent so much time and $$ building a proxy force of #Syrian fighters.

4/What we are all witnessing now is the next stage in the development of #Turkey's foreign legion of #Syrian fighters, who have now been used in three different campaigns in #Syria over the last three years (in #EuphratesShield in 2016, in #Afrin in 2018, and #Rojava in 2019).

5/#Turkey's decision to mobilize, train+equip and deploy a #Turkish foreign legion of #Syrian fighters is a major development in the modern history of the #MiddleEast. Closest parallel to it is #Iran's multi-decade effort to stand up the #IRGC's transnational #Hezbollah Network.

6/This development could allow #Turkey to project power in the Greater #MiddleEast and #Mediterranean in a manner that limits #Turkish casualties and could give the #Turks a leg up on similarly casualty-averse regional state actor rivals such as #Egypt, the #UAE and #SaudiArabia.

7/#Turkey's foreign legion of #Syrian fighters is still a work in progress. But #Libya gives the #Turks another environment, with fierce regional rivals such as #Egypt and the #UAE, to compete against and to test out the concept for use in other areas of the region.

8/This is a major development! If #Turkish leaders can field a competent expeditionary proxy force in #Libya, and build up the model there, #Turkey will be ever closer to being in a credible position to erect a large spheres of influence throughout the Greater #MiddleEast.