Thread by @CurtisSChin

The #IMF says the "Great Lockdown" recession will likely be the worst since the Great Depression. Global economy projected to shrink by 3% in 2020. By contrast, in January, the IMF had forecast a global GDP expansion of 3.3% for this year. Details in chart below. Table: @IMFNews

IMF: Partial global rebound to 5.8% in 2021 “assumes the #pandemic fades in the 2nd half of 2020, & that policy actions taken by countries are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, & system-wide financial strains.” #WEO ow.ly/ZLYi50zccSJ

How does your country fare in the latest #IMF projections for 2020 & 2021? imf.org/~/media/Files/… @IMFNews #economies #GDP #finance

#Perspective. It’s not all negative…
#IMF projects 2020 economic (GDP) growth rates of:
🇧🇹 #Bhutan 2.7%
🇻🇳 #Vietnam 2.7
🇧🇩 #Bangladesh 2.0
🇮🇳 #India 1.9
🇨🇳 #China 1.2
🇵🇭 #Philippines 0.6
🇮🇩 #Indonesia 0.5

But here & elsewhere a lot of pain behind the numbers. @IMFNews #WEO

Today’s revised ⬇️ GDP 2020 projections by #IMF for #SoutheastAsia as #Covid19 impact spreads in #ASEAN:

#Vietnam 🇻🇳 2.7
#Myanmar 🇲🇲 1.8
#Brunei 🇧🇳 1.3
#Laos 🇱🇦 0.7
#Philippines 🇵🇭 0.6
#Indonesia 🇮🇩 0.5
#Cambodia 🇰🇭 -1.6
#Malaysia 🇲🇾 -1.7
#Singapore 🇸🇬 -3.5
#Thailand 🇹🇭 -6.7

Whoa. The #IMF projects 2020 Real GDP change for #Macau / #Macao 🇲🇴 of:

-29.6

@IMFNews #WEO #IMFMeetings 🦠vs 🎲🎰=🎢
#StaySafeStayHome #WeShallOvercome

And here’s what the #IMF said about South Asia as #covid19 hits #SAARC region: projected 2020 Real GDP change from 2019:

#Bhutan 🇧🇹 2.7
#Nepal 🇳🇵2.5
#Bangladesh 🇧🇩 2.0
#India 🇮🇳 1.9
#SriLanka 🇱🇰 -0.5
#Pakistan 🇵🇰 -1.5
#Maldives 🇲🇻 -8.1
#Afghanistan 🇦🇫 -3.0

🙏 #StrongerTogether

#WhatISaid on #CNA938 of
2020 #IMF projections ↕️:

1. Important to go beyond numbers &understand real impact on real people of pandemic
2. Pandemic has underscored •need for greater transparency/ coordination
•enduring challenge of inequality/inequity

https://twitter.com/curtisschin/status/1250209206759829508?s=21

Chart ⬇️: DYK For the first time since the #GreatDepression, both advanced economies, & emerging markets & developing economies, are “in recession.” So said #IMF chief economist @GitaGopinath at the release of the World Economic Outlook—April 2020. #WEO ➡️ ow.ly/ZLYi50zccSJ

#IMF revised ⬇️ Real GDP 2020 projections for #EastAsia as the impact of #Covid19 spreads in #Asia-Pacific:

#China 🇨🇳 1.2%
#Mongolia 🇲🇳 -1.0
#SouthKorea 🇰🇷 -1.2
#Taiwan 🇹🇼 -4.0
#HongKong 🇭🇰 -4.8
#Japan 🇯🇵 -5.2
#Macau 🇲🇴 -29.6
#NorthKorea 🇰🇵 NA
(annual % change)

#pandemic

On a more positive note:
The #IMF says in 2021—after the #GreatLockdown recession—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8% over 2020, comprised of:

— for advanced economies: 4.5%
— for emerging markets & developing economies: 6.6%

Details in chart below. Table: @IMFNews

#Oceania: #IMF 2020 GDP change?

#Kiribati 🇰🇮 0.0
#MarshallIslands 🇲🇭 -0.2
#Micronesia 🇫🇲 -0.4
#PNG 🇵🇬 -1.0
#Tuvalu 🇹🇻 -1.0
#Tonga 🇹🇴 -1.2
#Nauru 🇳🇷 -1.7
#SolomonIslands 🇸🇧 -2.1
#Vanuatu 🇻🇺 -3.3
#Samoa 🇼🇸 -3.7
#Fiji 🇫🇰 -5.8
#Australia 🇦🇺 -6.7
#NewZealand 🇳🇿 -7.2
#Palau 🇵🇼 -11.9

Note: the revised #IMF projection for 2020 GDP Growth in #China 🇨🇳 of 1.2% is much less than that made by other analysts: a median 2.5% (& per @annafifield ⬇️)— “the weakest clip since 1976, when the Cultural Revolution wrecked the economy.”

https://twitter.com/annafifield/status/1250294339122524162?s=21

#covid19

https://twitter.com/annafifield/status/1250294339122524162

Spotlight: the “#ASEAN-5” aka the 5 largest economies in SE Asia: Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia & Philippines.

👉#IMF’s latest GDP “Growth” Projections for 2020:
Overall: -0.6
#Philippines 🇵🇭 0.6
#Indonesia 🇮🇩 0.5
#Malaysia 🇲🇾 -1.7
#Singapore 🇸🇬 -3.5
#Thailand 🇹🇭 -6.7

People who know me know that I can be optimistic to a fault but I do wonder about these #IMF 2021 GDP growth projections 🤔: #allelsebeingequal.

Our world 🌐 5.8
#USA 🇺🇸 4.5
#China 🇨🇳 9.2
#India 🇮🇳 7.4
#ASEAN-5 🇮🇩🇲🇾🇵🇭🇸🇬🇹🇭 7.8

Albeit from a lower 2020 base.
#MrOptimism #WEO

Who you calling sustainable? About that debt. “#IMF experts are economists, they are not clairvoyants.”

A proposal: of #debtsustainability, #COVID19 uncertainty & @IMFNews. Read: brook.gs/34CzWlw via @heidirediker @DougRediker
@BrookingsInst
@CFR_org

Was asked 🤔 on @ChannelNewsAsia #CNA938 about what the #IMF had said of comparing this #GreatLockdown Recession of 2020 to the Great Depression of 1929-41.

Let’s just go to the #digital clip. Have a listen to @IMFNews chief economist @GitaGopinath
#WEO

No, not a typo.

Woohoo. ⬆️ 53% this year. #Guyana 🇬🇾.

This remote, jungle-covered nation will enjoy by far the world’s fastest expansion, & be the only country in the Americas to see any growth at all in 2020, the #IMF says.

bloomberg.com/amp/news/artic…

@mjbristow reports

DYK: the #IMF projects that some 35 nations will still have positive Real GDP in 2020 despite the #GreatLockdownRecession including:
🇬🇾 #Guyana 52.8
🇧🇯 #Benin 4.5
🇪🇹 #Ethiopia 3.2
🇧🇹 #Bhutan 2.7
🇻🇳 #Vietnam 2.7
🇳🇵 #Nepal 2.5
🇧🇩 #Bangladesh 2.0
🇮🇳 #India 1.9
🇨🇳 #China 1.2

A #blog from the #IMF on the #COVID19 🦠 Pandemic & the #AsiaPacific Region:

Lowest Growth Since the 1960s. Two key added factors shaping outlook: the global slowdown & the #China slowdown.

blogs.imf.org/2020/04/15/cov…
Via @IMFNews Chang Yong Rhee
@rhee_chang

Hashtag: #AtAStandstill.
#IMF Sees #AsiaPacific Economic Growth at Standstill in 2020. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Bottom line: #Asia will only rebound when there’s a global recovery. @endacurran reports. #weareinthistogether #WEO @IMFNews