Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #UNEMPLOYMENT
Most recents (24)
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve today halted the most aggressive policy rate #HikingCycle since 1980, leaving the Fed Funds range unchanged at 5.0% to 5.25%, a level that appears clear to us to be finally having an impact on the #economy.
We think today’s actions represent a “Hawkish skip,” which implies that #policy makers are seeking more #data before potentially hiking rates again in July, or September.
For our part, we think #ChairPowell’s comments at the press conference made it clear that the #FOMC is seeking to balance increasingly restrictive monetary policy with the high degree of uncertainty around the tightening of #CreditConditions…
Thread🧵 on GMI's key macro charts by Raoul Pal. @RaoulGMI #GlobalMacro
1/7 ISM is falling to 46.9, indicating short-term weakness. New orders point towards a drop closer to 45 in June. #GlobalEconomy 
2/7 The GMI Financial Conditions Index suggests recovery, having already bottomed out and now rising. #FinancialConditions #EconomicTrends
1/10 *Thread* 🧵
🚀 US Labor Market: May payrolls rise by 339K, surpassing the 190K Dow Jones estimate, and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth. Unemployment rate increases slightly to 3.7% - still near the lowest since 1969. #LaborMarket #JobGrowth
🚀 US Labor Market: May payrolls rise by 339K, surpassing the 190K Dow Jones estimate, and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth. Unemployment rate increases slightly to 3.7% - still near the lowest since 1969. #LaborMarket #JobGrowth
2/10
📈 This surge in job creation reveals a resilient labor market despite various challenges. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, rose 0.3% for the month, and wages increased 4.3% annually. #EconomicGrowth #Inflation
📈 This surge in job creation reveals a resilient labor market despite various challenges. Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, rose 0.3% for the month, and wages increased 4.3% annually. #EconomicGrowth #Inflation
3/10
💼 Job creation is led by professional and business services (64K new hires), followed by government (56K) and healthcare (52K). Other notable sectors include leisure and hospitality (48K), construction (25K), and transportation and warehousing (24K). #JobCreation
💼 Job creation is led by professional and business services (64K new hires), followed by government (56K) and healthcare (52K). Other notable sectors include leisure and hospitality (48K), construction (25K), and transportation and warehousing (24K). #JobCreation
1/15 *Thread*🧵US Housing Market 2023: An investors outlook🏠
Key trend: Low supply, strong demand. Let's explore why investing in this market cycle could yield strong returns.
#USHousingMarket #RealEstateInvesting #EconomicTrends
Key trend: Low supply, strong demand. Let's explore why investing in this market cycle could yield strong returns.
#USHousingMarket #RealEstateInvesting #EconomicTrends
2/15
US added 339,000 jobs in May '23, surpassing predictions of 190,000. Unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low despite being up to 3.7%, above the 3.5% forecast. A robust labor market is fundamental to a thriving housing market.
#JobsReport #Unemployment
US added 339,000 jobs in May '23, surpassing predictions of 190,000. Unemployment rate is at a near 50-year low despite being up to 3.7%, above the 3.5% forecast. A robust labor market is fundamental to a thriving housing market.
#JobsReport #Unemployment
3/15 Interest rates are rising fast, yet the labor market is holding strong. The strong labor market translates into steady demand for housing, maintaining a positive outlook for property investors.
#InterestRates #LaborMarket
#InterestRates #LaborMarket
We’ve seen the pace of #payroll gains decelerate to roughly the monthly trend pace from the last expansion; consensus has been waiting for this moment and expected a 195,000 job gain in May, but the data printed considerably stronger at 339,000 #jobs gained.
The three-month moving average of #nonfarm payrolls sits at 283,000, down from 334,000 jobs at the start of the year, but what the #LaborMarket imbalance needs is more supply and more slack.
The #unemployment rate ticked up to 3.65%, close to its 12-month average level, and average hourly #earnings (a volatile figure) gained 0.33% month-over-month and 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.
May employment report came in mixed with both NFP and UR increasing.
Again, no Wall Street analyst came nowhere close to guessing the headline number with the highest estimate missing it by 129K.
What does that all mean for the #Fed?
A thread.
1/11
Again, no Wall Street analyst came nowhere close to guessing the headline number with the highest estimate missing it by 129K.
What does that all mean for the #Fed?
A thread.
1/11
NFP rose for the 29th M in a row with +339K which is 149K above consensus (+190K).
Apr number was revised up by 41K from +253K to +294K.
Total gain in Apr and May is +633K, 190K higher than expected (+443K).
#employment
2/11
Apr number was revised up by 41K from +253K to +294K.
Total gain in Apr and May is +633K, 190K higher than expected (+443K).
#employment
2/11
At the same time UR jumped from 3.4% (cycle low) to 3.7%, the highest since Feb 2022 and the same as in Aug and Oct 2022.
#unemployment
3/11
#unemployment
3/11
A friend sent me a video that is apparently making the rounds. It's titled "#Modi the Boss," and features various world leaders praising Modi's popularity and greeting him.
Modi's #Bhakts are clearly in orgasmic bliss with this, and opponents say it's pure propaganda.
(1/)
Modi's #Bhakts are clearly in orgasmic bliss with this, and opponents say it's pure propaganda.
(1/)
But there's more to this than meets the eye.
1. It's a fact that Modi's popularity fills world leaders with awe. They would give an arm and a leg to be as popular in their countries as Modi is in India. He can screw up worse than anyone can imagine and still be popular.
(2/)
1. It's a fact that Modi's popularity fills world leaders with awe. They would give an arm and a leg to be as popular in their countries as Modi is in India. He can screw up worse than anyone can imagine and still be popular.
(2/)
2. In contrast, leaders of most world democracies have to worry about the #economy, #jobs, #Unemployment, #prices, #inflation, #recession, etc. If anything goes wrong with these, they might lose the next #election.
(3/)
(3/)
Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
1/23 It's easy to find bullish and bearish elements in the charts to fit you bias, but being a maxi can be risky. Remember:
Markets ebb and flow
Data constantly changes
Your bias only needs to match the TF you are trading
A 🧵 on the #data influencing the #BTC trend and PA.
#NFA
Markets ebb and flow
Data constantly changes
Your bias only needs to match the TF you are trading
A 🧵 on the #data influencing the #BTC trend and PA.
#NFA
2/23 Before we dive into the macro for #Bitcoin, let's look at what's happening this week. It's rare to have a Daily MA #GoldenCross and a Weekly MA #DeathCross happening on the same asset.
3/23 The #GoldenCross printed and the #DeathCross between the 200 & 50 WMA's is coming on the next candle. Knowing why we have conflicting signals isn't as critical as knowing how price will react, but if I had to guess, I'd say, short term manipulation.
WHATS HAPPENING WITH US EMPLOYMENT / PAYROLLS and implications
a thread:
1/x
After a +517k Jan 23 payrolls & resilient employment mth after mth despite a year of rate hikes, whats really happening & does it mean soft landing?
read on
#macro #unemployment #stocks $SPY $QQQ
a thread:
1/x
After a +517k Jan 23 payrolls & resilient employment mth after mth despite a year of rate hikes, whats really happening & does it mean soft landing?
read on
#macro #unemployment #stocks $SPY $QQQ
2/x I'm not delving into statistical adjustments, this is about the real backdrop & whats driving overall trends. From that I'll draw some clarifying conclusions.
Here's the recent payrolls numbers charted. The trend shows payrolls normalizing down from elevated levels w/ chop
Here's the recent payrolls numbers charted. The trend shows payrolls normalizing down from elevated levels w/ chop
3/x Why were they elevated at the beginning of '22? Its all about the re-hiring of workers laid off during COVID. This is still on going.
The Chart shows US Total Employed. The US shed ~15% of its workforce as COVID hit and only recently surpassed 2019 levels, now +2% vs then.
The Chart shows US Total Employed. The US shed ~15% of its workforce as COVID hit and only recently surpassed 2019 levels, now +2% vs then.
Since we know that Democrats are not really all there. I will post PICTURES. Maybe its more of a visual learning thing.
Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject by year
Lay off
Morning update:
Yesterday, we got a lot of important economic data and ever since the release, many analysts are wondering what happened. The data we good was far from expectations and is signaling that the #economy is very strong🤔
Yesterday, we got a lot of important economic data and ever since the release, many analysts are wondering what happened. The data we good was far from expectations and is signaling that the #economy is very strong🤔
According to the reported data, #unemployment dropped to 3,4%, the lowest since 1969. Meanwhile, big corporations continue to lay off thousands of employees😂
Recent layoffs:
Amazon: 18,000
Google: 12,000
Sales Force: 8,000
IBM: 3,900
Goldman Sachs: 3,200
SAP: 2,800
3M: 2,500
Pay Pal: 2,000
Wayfair 1,750
Kraken: 1,200
Coinbase: 950
Spotify: 600
Hubspot: 500
And those are just some that we can think of😉 #layoffs2023
Amazon: 18,000
Google: 12,000
Sales Force: 8,000
IBM: 3,900
Goldman Sachs: 3,200
SAP: 2,800
3M: 2,500
Pay Pal: 2,000
Wayfair 1,750
Kraken: 1,200
Coinbase: 950
Spotify: 600
Hubspot: 500
And those are just some that we can think of😉 #layoffs2023
Is another 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐡 coming ❓
Let’s see what the #FOMC meeting is and its impact on your portfolio
🧵👇
Let’s see what the #FOMC meeting is and its impact on your portfolio
🧵👇
🔶Last year, the primary reason behind the crypto crash was the #Fed aggressive rate hike announcements at the FOMC meeting because of rapid inflation.
WHAT IS THE FOMC MEETING?
🔶The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is a session held by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee to decide on the
monetary policies of the USA.
🔶Their main focus is to keep a balance between #inflation and #Unemployment.
🔶The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting is a session held by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee to decide on the
monetary policies of the USA.
🔶Their main focus is to keep a balance between #inflation and #Unemployment.
The US Federal Reserve has two imperatives: keeping #employment high and #inflation low. When these conflict - when unemployment goes near-zero - the Fed forgets all about #FullEmployment, cranking #InterestRates to "cool the economy" (AKA "increasing #unemployment"). 1/
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
pluralistic.net/2023/01/19/cre… 2/
pluralistic.net/2023/01/19/cre… 2/
An economy "cools down" when workers have less money, which means that the prices offered for goods and services go down, as fewer workers have less money to spend. 3/
#SuperImportant #Retweet
Will #IndianRetail flows to #Equity TOP OUT?
#Modinomics characterized by Record #Unemployment of the #Unorganised Sector & "unreported" #Inflation has ensured that Net Financial Savings of Indian Household is at a 30 YEAR LOW
Will #IndianRetail flows to #Equity TOP OUT?
#Modinomics characterized by Record #Unemployment of the #Unorganised Sector & "unreported" #Inflation has ensured that Net Financial Savings of Indian Household is at a 30 YEAR LOW
What Does this Actually Mean?
🚩In FY22, NET FINANCIAL SAVINGS of households was 7.3% of GDP (17.2 Lac Crores).
🚩In 6 months of FY23, NET FINANCIAL SAVINGS of households was 4% of GDP (Rs 5.2 Lac Crores)
🚩In FY22, NET FINANCIAL SAVINGS of households was 7.3% of GDP (17.2 Lac Crores).
🚩In 6 months of FY23, NET FINANCIAL SAVINGS of households was 4% of GDP (Rs 5.2 Lac Crores)
What Drove his Change? 2 Factors
(1) Rising LIABILITIES of households which increased to 5% of GDP in H1 FY23
(2) Sharp Fall in TOTAL SAVINGS. Past 5 odd years, TOTAL SAVING of households was ~20% of GDP. However, in H1 FY23, TOTAL SAVING of households has fallen to 15.7% of GDP
(1) Rising LIABILITIES of households which increased to 5% of GDP in H1 FY23
(2) Sharp Fall in TOTAL SAVINGS. Past 5 odd years, TOTAL SAVING of households was ~20% of GDP. However, in H1 FY23, TOTAL SAVING of households has fallen to 15.7% of GDP
1. #China has been involved in illegal fishing in #EEZ of over 80 countries with over 10 million hrs of fishing.
This is a mega report and tweet thread on #Chinese illegal fishing in world's oceans and its impacts.
Read/download the complete report:
ij-reportika.com/the-illegal-ch…
This is a mega report and tweet thread on #Chinese illegal fishing in world's oceans and its impacts.
Read/download the complete report:
ij-reportika.com/the-illegal-ch…
2. The #Chinese fleet is often found guilty of #overfishing,
killing protected species,
falsifying licenses and docs,
#espionage,
seizing territories &
producing tons of sea #waste.
Read/download the complete report:
ij-reportika.com/the-illegal-ch…
#ChinaIllegalFishing
killing protected species,
falsifying licenses and docs,
#espionage,
seizing territories &
producing tons of sea #waste.
Read/download the complete report:
ij-reportika.com/the-illegal-ch…
#ChinaIllegalFishing
3. IUU: #China has been consistently ranked num. 1 on various parameters of illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing (IUU) rankings.
According to the IUU rankings report 2021, over 60% of its vessels are involved in IUU fishing worldwide.
#ChinaIllegalFishing
According to the IUU rankings report 2021, over 60% of its vessels are involved in IUU fishing worldwide.
#ChinaIllegalFishing
@PwC @PwCUS just released their 2023 Annual Global CEO Survey — here's a thread of the top takeaways from the survey, including the fact that "40% of CEO's don't think their companies will be 'economically viable' in the next 10yrs"... 🧵/👇🏼
#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics
#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics
1/🧵 "Roughly 40% flagged the transition to new energy sources and supply chain disruption." @PwC @PwCUS
#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech
#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech
2/🧵 "#inflation and #macroeconomic volatility stand out more prominently than other key threats in the next 12 months than over the next five years." @PwC @PwCUS
#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech #CPI
#macro #Stockmarket #DataAnalytics #commodities #supplychainmanagement #tech #CPI
1/4 "... several #sociodemographic and #socioeconomic factors as predictors of #LongCovid including lower #household #income levels, being #Hispanic, #female, #gay/#lesbian or #bisexual, and #divorced or #separated.
2/4 "Even after accounting for such factors, having #LongCovid was linked to higher risks of recent #unemployment, #financial #hardship, and #anxiety and #depressive #symptomatology, with evidence of dose-response relationships."
3/4 "Overall, an estimated 27.3 million US adults with #LongCovid were at risk of adverse #socioeconomic and #health outcomes including #anxiety and #depression."
#SDOH #social #determinants of #health
#SDOH #social #determinants of #health
'2022 wasn't an easy year for the Union for the #Mediterranean. High #unemployment, #ClimateEmergency, #food and #energy #safety... But we are advancing, also on regional dialogue on #GenderEquality'
Álvaro Albacete @UfMSecretariat at #EESCplenary debate
Álvaro Albacete @UfMSecretariat at #EESCplenary debate
'EU relationships with its southern neighbourhood is based on the two most powerful engines: geography and history. #Euromed has great potential, but faces also massive challenges in terms of #climate and #demography'
Josep Ferré @AnnaLindh at #EESCplenary debate
Josep Ferré @AnnaLindh at #EESCplenary debate
'How do we promote cooperation between EU and countries of southern #Mediterranean, ensuring respect for #democracy, human and Workers' rights? We see from experience in some situations we are not even allowed to talk about human rights'
@AknoMag #EESCplenary debate #Euromed
@AknoMag #EESCplenary debate #Euromed
(1/7) #Bullmarkets are periods of increased #asset values due to regular #price fluctuations. This thread emphasizes on its causes and characteristics. 🐮🧵
Learn More 👇
medium.com/zignaly/llts22…
Learn More 👇
medium.com/zignaly/llts22…
(2/7) Wage growth, capital inflows, minimal unemployment, strong #consumer spending, and increasing corporate #profits are all factors that lead to sustainable #bullruns. 🐮📈
(3/7) Characteristics of a #BullCycle:
1. Boosted #investor confidence, falling policy rate. 🔝📈
2. More #money being invested in the future by businesses. 💵📈
3. There is a decline in the #unemployment rate. 👨💼📉
4. The process of #spending money is more straightforward ⬆💯
1. Boosted #investor confidence, falling policy rate. 🔝📈
2. More #money being invested in the future by businesses. 💵📈
3. There is a decline in the #unemployment rate. 👨💼📉
4. The process of #spending money is more straightforward ⬆💯
Mixed bag of UK labour market data... (short 🧵)
#Unemployment rate down on the quarter but up on the month, and flattered by rise in number of people no longer actively looking for work (incl. long-term sick)
#Employment rate (first chart 👇) still below pre-Covid levels...
#Unemployment rate down on the quarter but up on the month, and flattered by rise in number of people no longer actively looking for work (incl. long-term sick)
#Employment rate (first chart 👇) still below pre-Covid levels...
Earnings data a little better than expected: average total #pay (incl. bonuses) rose 6.0% in 3m to September and regular pay (excl. bonuses) by 5.7%, although still falling in real terms.
And early PAYE estimates for October point to a 6.0% increase in median pay last month...
And early PAYE estimates for October point to a 6.0% increase in median pay last month...
Payroll #employment rose another 74,000 in October and remains on strong upward trend.
But separate Labour Force Survey suggests total employment (incl. self-employment) is much weaker.
Both measures have pros and cons - take your pick!
But separate Labour Force Survey suggests total employment (incl. self-employment) is much weaker.
Both measures have pros and cons - take your pick!
Earlier this week the @federalreserve raised #policy rates at an extraordinary 75 basis point increment (its fourth time doing so this year), in an attempt to moderate excessively high levels of #inflation.
Still, if the central bankers were hoping to see signs of slowing in the persistently solid #LaborMarkets, as an indicator that policies were slowing growth and in turn #inflation, they may be somewhat disheartened by today’s data.
Indeed, nonfarm #payrolls increased by 261k jobs in Oct, with private employment rising an average of 262k/month over the past three months, which does not yet imply that the slowing that policymakers believe we’ll need to see to tame #inflation has arrived.
1. #Unemployment.. Watch this.. In June 2022.. @NarendraModi announced govt depts must recruit 10 lakh persons in "mission mode" in 18 months.. this is after dodging all the questions & issues of unemployment.. This is just a "Ratan Khatri" figure..
2. #Unemployment.. I call this 10 lakhs jobs a "Ratan Khatri" figure because its drawn from his "Worli Matka" thing.. and not based on any transparent assessment of NEW vacancies or REPLACEMENT vacancies (due to retirement, VRS etc).. @NarendraModi..
3. #Unemployment.. Employment is always a NEED-BASED action and is a continuous process in any organisation.. But.. But its only @NarendraModi who makes a grand TAMASHA of "DIWALI-GIFT" of 75000 jobs as his coolies at @Timesnow grandly mention..
