Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #récession
Most recents (24)
From NY and Philly Fed Banks: manufacturing continues leading the way towards recession 🧵... 
NY Fed manufacturing survey has gyrated violently recently but has averaged below zero (contraction territory) for a year; price increases have slowed but not stopped; labor market contracting; planned investment remains low:
Philly Fed manufacturing survey has shown contraction 10 months in a row w/ new orders (canary in coalmine) negative for over a year straight; employment flatlined this month but shortening of workweeks accelerated:
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's Take:
•USA #recession is coming
•Bearish daily candlesticks on $SPX and $NDX
• #NDX negative divergences with classic Indis
•Leaders are overextended and some are starting to break
• #JPM collar will stop any #SPX advance at 4320
#SPX #ES_F $SPX $SPY
The Bear's Take:
•USA #recession is coming
•Bearish daily candlesticks on $SPX and $NDX
• #NDX negative divergences with classic Indis
•Leaders are overextended and some are starting to break
• #JPM collar will stop any #SPX advance at 4320
#SPX #ES_F $SPX $SPY
NEXT WEEK
The Bulls' Take
•Breakout of 4200 confirmed
•Momentum is bullish
•Market breadth improved
• $SPX now in official bull market
•Dealers increased their long positions again
• #Gamma is positive
- #CPI will be lower
- #Fed to pause
#ES #SPX $SPY #0dte #options
The Bulls' Take
•Breakout of 4200 confirmed
•Momentum is bullish
•Market breadth improved
• $SPX now in official bull market
•Dealers increased their long positions again
• #Gamma is positive
- #CPI will be lower
- #Fed to pause
#ES #SPX $SPY #0dte #options
NEXT WEEK
Our Take
• Markets are at strong resistance levels, we are expecting a pullback
• Volatile week ahead
• A likely visit to 4220
• Expecting 4320 to stop any $SPX advance
•Expecting #smallcaps to outperform
• #CPI maybe higher, but downtrending
#SPX $SPY $ES_F
Our Take
• Markets are at strong resistance levels, we are expecting a pullback
• Volatile week ahead
• A likely visit to 4220
• Expecting 4320 to stop any $SPX advance
•Expecting #smallcaps to outperform
• #CPI maybe higher, but downtrending
#SPX $SPY $ES_F
The Eurozone has been confirmed as entering a 'technical recession' by EuroStat after the region shrank by 0.1% in Q1 2023, marking two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP.
#Europe #EuropeanUnion #recession
#Europe #EuropeanUnion #recession
1. According to the third, final assessment, in the first quarter the indicator increased by one percent in annual terms, but in the quarter it decreased by 0.1 percent. Preliminary and interim estimates at the same time assumed growth - by 1.3 and 0.1 percent.
#recession
#recession
2. In the fourth quarter of last year, in annual terms, there was also an increase - by 1.8 percent, but in quarterly terms - a decrease by the same 0.1 percent. In addition, the total GDP of the EU countries in the first quarter.
#recession
#recession
Thread🧵 on GMI's key macro charts by Raoul Pal. @RaoulGMI #GlobalMacro
1/7 ISM is falling to 46.9, indicating short-term weakness. New orders point towards a drop closer to 45 in June. #GlobalEconomy
2/7 The GMI Financial Conditions Index suggests recovery, having already bottomed out and now rising. #FinancialConditions #EconomicTrends
Why is the stock market ripping?
#Team42, we joined Real Vision’s @RaoulGMI and @maggielake last week to discuss #Liquidity , #Debt Monetization, #Recession, & more.
In case you missed it, here are seven highlights from what many are calling “the best RV Daily Briefing yet”:
#Team42, we joined Real Vision’s @RaoulGMI and @maggielake last week to discuss #Liquidity , #Debt Monetization, #Recession, & more.
In case you missed it, here are seven highlights from what many are calling “the best RV Daily Briefing yet”:
1) Liquidity Drives Asset Markets
Although we believe the stock market will continue to squeeze bears well into the fall, poor liquidity conditions will likely drag asset markets down this summer.
Although we believe the stock market will continue to squeeze bears well into the fall, poor liquidity conditions will likely drag asset markets down this summer.
Additionally, we are not sure we've seen this market cycle's ultimate lows because we did not price in a recession last year.
What we priced in, in our opinion, was a change in the Liquidity Cycle.
What we priced in, in our opinion, was a change in the Liquidity Cycle.
Why is the stock market ripping?
#Team42, we joined Real Vision’s @RaoulGMI and @maggielake last week to discuss #Liquidity , #Debt Monetization, #Recession, & more.
In case you missed it, here are seven highlights from what many are calling “the best RV Daily Briefing yet”:
#Team42, we joined Real Vision’s @RaoulGMI and @maggielake last week to discuss #Liquidity , #Debt Monetization, #Recession, & more.
In case you missed it, here are seven highlights from what many are calling “the best RV Daily Briefing yet”:
1) Liquidity Drives Asset Markets
Although we believe the stock market will continue to squeeze bears well into the fall, poor liquidity conditions will likely drag asset markets down this summer.
Although we believe the stock market will continue to squeeze bears well into the fall, poor liquidity conditions will likely drag asset markets down this summer.
Additionally, we are not sure we've seen this market cycle's ultimate lows because we did not price in a recession last year.
What we priced in, in our opinion, was a change in the Liquidity Cycle.
What we priced in, in our opinion, was a change in the Liquidity Cycle.
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's Take:
•Germany is in recession
• #USA #recession is coming
•Spinning top on Nasdaq
• #NDX negative divergences with classic indis
•Leading stocks are overextended
•Breadth Negative divergences
•4300 is strong resistance
#SPX #ES_F $SPX $SPY #0dte
The Bear's Take:
•Germany is in recession
• #USA #recession is coming
•Spinning top on Nasdaq
• #NDX negative divergences with classic indis
•Leading stocks are overextended
•Breadth Negative divergences
•4300 is strong resistance
#SPX #ES_F $SPX $SPY #0dte
NEXT WEEK
The Bulls's Take
•Daily, weekly and monthly bullish candlestick with high volume
•Big bullish action on Friday, with Breadth Thrust
• $SPX broke important levels on high volume
•Bullish momentum
•Dealers increased their long positions
•Positive #Gamma
#SPX $SPX
The Bulls's Take
•Daily, weekly and monthly bullish candlestick with high volume
•Big bullish action on Friday, with Breadth Thrust
• $SPX broke important levels on high volume
•Bullish momentum
•Dealers increased their long positions
•Positive #Gamma
#SPX $SPX
NEXT WEEK
Our Take
•Momentum is bullish, but indices are near resistance
•A likely visit to 4220 in the next two weeks is expected
•Hard to see a solid break above 4300 this week
•Expecting good performance from the #smallcaps this week
#SPX $SPY $ES_F $SPY #trading
Our Take
•Momentum is bullish, but indices are near resistance
•A likely visit to 4220 in the next two weeks is expected
•Hard to see a solid break above 4300 this week
•Expecting good performance from the #smallcaps this week
#SPX $SPY $ES_F $SPY #trading
Dissecting CPI 🧵👇
1. While over 300 line items drive CPI that we have visibility into, we can condense these measures into four broad categories that account for the bulk of the variations: food, energy, transportation, and shelter. We show this composition below:
1. While over 300 line items drive CPI that we have visibility into, we can condense these measures into four broad categories that account for the bulk of the variations: food, energy, transportation, and shelter. We show this composition below:
2. Both economically and statistically, these categories explain about 85% of the monthly variation in CPI. Therefore, we think it makes sense to approach our dissection of CPI by evaluating these areas.
3. We believe that food & energy prices can continue to contribute to a softening in CPI, but the swing factor will likely be transportation inflation. So far this cycle, transportation has been a net support to the disinflation we expected over the year.
May employment report came in mixed with both NFP and UR increasing.
Again, no Wall Street analyst came nowhere close to guessing the headline number with the highest estimate missing it by 129K.
What does that all mean for the #Fed?
A thread.
1/11
Again, no Wall Street analyst came nowhere close to guessing the headline number with the highest estimate missing it by 129K.
What does that all mean for the #Fed?
A thread.
1/11
NFP rose for the 29th M in a row with +339K which is 149K above consensus (+190K).
Apr number was revised up by 41K from +253K to +294K.
Total gain in Apr and May is +633K, 190K higher than expected (+443K).
#employment
2/11
Apr number was revised up by 41K from +253K to +294K.
Total gain in Apr and May is +633K, 190K higher than expected (+443K).
#employment
2/11
At the same time UR jumped from 3.4% (cycle low) to 3.7%, the highest since Feb 2022 and the same as in Aug and Oct 2022.
#unemployment
3/11
#unemployment
3/11
1. Our process tells us that we are likely headed towards a stagflationary environment, i.e., with growth contracting and inflation likely to be persistent. This regime tends to be one of the worst for passive investors, the reasoning for which is twofold.
2. Recessions are the primary risk to stocks as nominal spending collapses. At the same time, inflationary episodes are the primary risk to bonds as their fixed interest rate becomes less attractive relative to other nominal assets.
3. While we intend to provide a more in-depth commentary on both of these components separately in our upcoming Month in Macro report, we provide a sneak peek in what will be further elaborated on.
A friend sent me a video that is apparently making the rounds. It's titled "#Modi the Boss," and features various world leaders praising Modi's popularity and greeting him.
Modi's #Bhakts are clearly in orgasmic bliss with this, and opponents say it's pure propaganda.
(1/)
Modi's #Bhakts are clearly in orgasmic bliss with this, and opponents say it's pure propaganda.
(1/)
But there's more to this than meets the eye.
1. It's a fact that Modi's popularity fills world leaders with awe. They would give an arm and a leg to be as popular in their countries as Modi is in India. He can screw up worse than anyone can imagine and still be popular.
(2/)
1. It's a fact that Modi's popularity fills world leaders with awe. They would give an arm and a leg to be as popular in their countries as Modi is in India. He can screw up worse than anyone can imagine and still be popular.
(2/)
2. In contrast, leaders of most world democracies have to worry about the #economy, #jobs, #Unemployment, #prices, #inflation, #recession, etc. If anything goes wrong with these, they might lose the next #election.
(3/)
(3/)
Rough Summer Ahead?
#Team42, I joined @APompliano earlier this week to discuss the #DebtCeiling , #recession , Global #Liquidity , and more.
EVERY investor will want to review the following six highlights from the interview:
#Team42, I joined @APompliano earlier this week to discuss the #DebtCeiling , #recession , Global #Liquidity , and more.
EVERY investor will want to review the following six highlights from the interview:
1) We expect the Debt Limit Crisis to negatively impact global liquidity.
The US government will return to the international capital markets to borrow more money (after resolving the crisis).
The US government will return to the international capital markets to borrow more money (after resolving the crisis).
When that happens...
A material amount of liquidity will be removed from the system, driving asset prices down.
A material amount of liquidity will be removed from the system, driving asset prices down.
We found ourselves in the midst of another US debt ceiling debate.
A recurrent event that has significant implications for the global economy, including the financial markets.
Let's unpack this complex issue🧵
RT's appreciated!🙏
#economy #crypto #Bitcoin #stocks
/1
A recurrent event that has significant implications for the global economy, including the financial markets.
Let's unpack this complex issue🧵
RT's appreciated!🙏
#economy #crypto #Bitcoin #stocks
/1
The US debt ceiling is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the US #Treasury.
It's a cap on how much money the federal government may borrow to pay off the debt it has already borrowed.
/2
It's a cap on how much money the federal government may borrow to pay off the debt it has already borrowed.
/2
Interestingly, the debt ceiling does not directly limit government deficits.
While it can restrain the Treasury from paying for expenditures after the limit has been reached, these are expenditures that have already been approved and appropriated.
/3
While it can restrain the Treasury from paying for expenditures after the limit has been reached, these are expenditures that have already been approved and appropriated.
/3
#AI isn't going to take your data science job.
But the #recession might.
Here's how this trend is unfolding from Big #Tech to the broader job market (and how to prepare)...
#datascience #career
But the #recession might.
Here's how this trend is unfolding from Big #Tech to the broader job market (and how to prepare)...
#datascience #career
For the better part of a decade, Big #Tech was on a hiring spree.
Companies like #Amazon, #Microsoft, and #Meta overhired. And that's OK when things are going well.
But then 2022 hit and Big Tech had its worst decline since 2008.
Companies like #Amazon, #Microsoft, and #Meta overhired. And that's OK when things are going well.
But then 2022 hit and Big Tech had its worst decline since 2008.
And in January 2023, with CEOs seeking to protect their stock prices, companies like:
Amazon,
PayPal, and
Microsoft
...all announced deep cuts to employees.
Amazon,
PayPal, and
Microsoft
...all announced deep cuts to employees.
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
• #Recession is here
• #GDP ↓
•Leading indicators ↓
• #AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000
$SPX #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Monthly close on lighter volume
•Negative divergences from classic indicators
•Tough talk from FEDs
•Inflation is sticky, rates ↑
• #Recession is here
• #GDP ↓
•Leading indicators ↓
• #AAPL earnings ↓
•Big #Gamma at 4000
$SPX #SPX
#Oil poised for weekly dip as #recession fears, rates cloud outlook | Apr 28
- #US economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter, although jobless claims fell in the week ending April 22, data showed.
financialpost.com/pmn/business-p…
- #US economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter, although jobless claims fell in the week ending April 22, data showed.
financialpost.com/pmn/business-p…
#Stock market today: #Asia shares gain, tracking Wall St #rally | Apr 28
- Shares advanced in Asia on Friday after Wall Street rallied to its best day since January.
courant.com/2023/04/28/sto…
- Shares advanced in Asia on Friday after Wall Street rallied to its best day since January.
courant.com/2023/04/28/sto…
#BOJ keeps #rate ultra-#low as it still cools #inflation | Oct 28
- The Bank of Japan stood by its ultra-low interest rates, pushing back against market speculation it would adjust policy as it continues to predict inflation will fall below 2% next year.
biz.crast.net/boj-keeps-rate…
- The Bank of Japan stood by its ultra-low interest rates, pushing back against market speculation it would adjust policy as it continues to predict inflation will fall below 2% next year.
biz.crast.net/boj-keeps-rate…
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
• #Recession is here
#ES_F
The Bear's take:
•Upward momentum is lost
•Negative divergences and sell signals from classic indicators
•Big weekly bullish enfulfing candle on $VVIX
•Weekly bearish haramis on major indices
•Inflation is sticky, higher rates coming
• #Recession is here
#ES_F
#WeeklyRecap: Markets Remain Unstable Amidst Encouraging and Concerning Economic Data
victoryinvest.substack.com/p/markets-rema…
Here are the key topics discussed in our latest market commentary #Thread 🧵 #Fed #Recession #inflation
victoryinvest.substack.com/p/markets-rema…
Here are the key topics discussed in our latest market commentary #Thread 🧵 #Fed #Recession #inflation
Mixed data created uncertainty for investors. Inflation may be moderating, but retail sales contraction raises concerns for a potential recession. The Fed may pause its rate hike cycle, which could positively impact the stock market. #Investing #Economy #MarketVolatility
📈 Major benchmarks defy recession concerns, posting weekly gains. DJI up 1.34%, SPX up 1.42%, NDX up 1.18%. #stockmarket #investing
Uh-oh. Layoffs are starting to show up in the jobs data.
Specifically in the South.
New payroll data from ADP shows states across the South (TX, FL, TN) have LOST JOBS to start 2023.
Meanwhile coasts are still adding jobs.
Just a blip? or start of a trend? 🤔
#recession
Specifically in the South.
New payroll data from ADP shows states across the South (TX, FL, TN) have LOST JOBS to start 2023.
Meanwhile coasts are still adding jobs.
Just a blip? or start of a trend? 🤔
#recession
1) I wonder if this is the first evidence of a "reversion" away from the pandemic Sun Belt boom.
Perhaps remote workers are getting called back into office. Or laid off. And need to move back to coasts.
If that is happening, big problem for real estate in South...
Perhaps remote workers are getting called back into office. Or laid off. And need to move back to coasts.
If that is happening, big problem for real estate in South...
2) Because there is just SO MUCH home building.🏠🚧
US Census shows roughly 800k homes actively under construction in South in early 2023.
That's almost 2x West Coast. and it's almost 4x Midwest/Northeast.
US Census shows roughly 800k homes actively under construction in South in early 2023.
That's almost 2x West Coast. and it's almost 4x Midwest/Northeast.
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out in the morning before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures
@UnrollHelper
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out in the morning before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures
@UnrollHelper
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Market is in decreasing weekly volume
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
•Valuations are high
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
$SPX
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out tomorrow before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures $Gamma
@UnrollHelper
Our weekly "NEXT WEEK, The Bear's take, The Bull's take, Our take" is here
For more info read our newsletter
The new issue will be out tomorrow before the open
Stay ahead, subscribe for Free
pointblanktrading.substack.com
#SPX $SPY $ES #options #Futures $Gamma
@UnrollHelper
NEXT WEEK
The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
The Bear's take:
•Market is up in decreasing weekly volume
•Market is overbought
•High yields
•Looming #Recession
•Geopolitical and geo-economic tensions are on the rise
• #Inflation is sticky
•Higher rates for longer
•Small-caps are lagging behind
#ES_F #SPX
#ChartStorm: 1/17
🗓️ March Performance of ...
🇺🇸 #SPX #IXIC #DJI 🇯🇵 #NI225 🇩🇪 #DAX 🇹🇷 #XU100
#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD
#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields
🗓️ March Performance of ...
🇺🇸 #SPX #IXIC #DJI 🇯🇵 #NI225 🇩🇪 #DAX 🇹🇷 #XU100
#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD
#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields
2) Here I'll cover 6 stock market indices in 4 countries:
In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.
As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.
In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.
As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.
3) I have adjusted the data, and now all are denominated in US dollars.
#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.
#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.
2/ Things are looking bleak😕as the filing of draft red herring prospectuses (DRHP) has dropped by over 50% in FY23, thanks to concerns over 👇
📈 High valuations,
🌎 Geopolitical tension
💸 Rising interest rates
📈 High valuations,
🌎 Geopolitical tension
💸 Rising interest rates
3/ And with many companies withdrawing their IPO papers as they were not hopeful of getting a good share price, the current market conditions could be better. 😔
Time to update this chart.
With everything going lately this may be the single most important chart to look at.
What do the latest numbers tell us?
A thread.
#inflation
1/16
With everything going lately this may be the single most important chart to look at.
What do the latest numbers tell us?
A thread.
#inflation
1/16
I made the quoted tweet on Feb 2 which was before Jan employment report, #CPI , #PPI and #PCE when most were still talking about great Dec numbers.
In the meantime most indicators showed higher #inflation numbers but, as I noted beforehand, that is only seasonality.
2/16
In the meantime most indicators showed higher #inflation numbers but, as I noted beforehand, that is only seasonality.
2/16
As I suspected, some took advantage of these seasonality numbers and revisions of SA data (#CPI) to wrongly point to #inflation picking up.
And even worse, the #Fed embraced this false narrative and hiked 25 last week despite the ongoing banking crisis.
3/16
And even worse, the #Fed embraced this false narrative and hiked 25 last week despite the ongoing banking crisis.
3/16
