Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #récession

Most recents (24)

Valuation thread 1/7

The S&P 500 Index is up 18% from the low in mid June.
Valuation thread 2/7

#Earnings-per-share are up less than 2% since then and guidance has become significantly more cautious.
Valuation thread 3/7

As a result, the realized PE ratio of the S&P 500 Index has increased to a lofty 21. The forward PE has risen to 19.
Read 7 tweets
Why is @michaeljburry selling everything? And why did he buy $GEO?

#inflation #recession #stocks #StockMarket

A thread 🧵 Image
1/7 Micheal Burry became known for his successful bet against mortgages in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. In a May tweet, he warned of a crash like the one 14 years ago.
2/7 Michael Burry's investment firm Scion Asset Management sold 11 U.S. stocks in the second quarter - ending the period with just one: Geo Group. Position disclosure is required for all asset managers that manage more than $100 million worth of U.S. stocks.
Read 9 tweets
#BullWhip effect as per @michaeljburry:

All know that rising #inflation is negative for #Equity markets as #CentralBanks (CB) tend to raise rates to control #demand - which in turn can lead to #Recession. During this phase #demand outpaces #supply.

Demand contracts for some time and supply also contracts with a lag. Post that demand starts to rise (post COVID), prompting manufacturers to increase supply disproportionately - creating a supply glut. This puts downward pressure on prices,inflation comes down. CBs turn dovish
This creates disinflationary phenomena. Though looks good on paper for equity markets, prices of all products come down substantially.

This is called #BullWhip effect.

Supply outpaces demand. Prices collapse, inventories pile up, margins shrink.

This slows earnings growth
Read 5 tweets
@conorsen Welllll, that's not entirely true. See, for instance, the Dot-Com Bust. 472K jobs created in March 2000. Prints consistently in the 300-400 (and up) range throughout previous year. Then first negative print was in ... June 2000 (3 months later).
@conorsen We then bounced in and out of negative territory for several months before the "official" #recession began in March 2001.
@conorsen You have a bit of a better case with the 1988-1990 cycle. Consistently stronger readings were mostly in 1988. But even there, we went from a +363K reading in January 1990 to a negative print in July 1990 (6 months later). Naturally, geopolitical developments contributed greatly.
Read 3 tweets
@bankofengland raises rates by 50bps today and forecasts nflation to 🏔13.1% by end-2022.

It looks like the bank is forecasting a mild #recession with #GDP growth *falling* by 1.5% in 2023.

This is accompanied by a modest rise in the #unemployment rate to 5.75% in 2024.
A 🧵
As I read through the @bankofengland report, I will tweet my commentary here.

Taken from the report:
A #recession2022 is the Bank’s base case forecast.😣

“The United Kingdom is now projected to enter recession from the fourth quarter of this year.”…
“The changes Ofgem has announced to the method for updating the household energy price cap are also expected to push up CPI inflation in the near term…”

This was a worry I set out yesterday.
Read 8 tweets
Beware Fed cuts, not hikes & the dreaded ISM Services 52/53 band. An equities timing 🧵: The equities market has front-run the economy driven by a reset in stimulus fueled P/Es but not yet by earnings. What to expect from here? See 2 charts & discussion. 1/5
$QQQ $SPY #SPX #macro Image
Cycle timing: In the '01 and '08 cycles, the real #recession (rising #unemployment) did not start till after the Fed had broken something and stopped hiking. Its at this time we see the ISM services really deteriorate. But in past thats been 19-36 mths after hikes started. 2/5
Do we need to see outright services contraction to be worried? No & Yes. The time to get really worried is when ISM Services hits the 52-53 band. Thats when firings accel - before it gets to 50. But yes, when it hits that level, it often collapses. And thats when the Fed cuts 3/5
Read 6 tweets
This is something our firm has been warning since 2017. 👇

Now, as the world is heading intoa #recession and further to an economic crisis, stagnated productivity growth should worry everyone.

Let me explain. Thread. 1/13
@dlacalle_IA @adam_tooze @DiMartinoBooth @GnSEconomics
TFP measures the share of GDP growth which cannot be accounted for by capital investment (in equipment and machinery) and the quantity and the improved quality of the labour force (skills and training).

Thus, TFP is the “unexplained” element of economic growth. 2/
Unfortunately, TFP is hard to measure and no simple data to represent it is available.

It was the Solow Growth Model which first suggested that one can find the value of TFP by collecting data from observed factors for capital, labour and economic growth and then, ... 3/
Read 14 tweets
@topagrar_PL @PolskaIzbaMleka @DINtoday @HighGroundDairy @freshagenda2013 @Eucolait @AnttiJSaari1 @juliajones110 @StoneX_EUDairy @SaschaSiegel_ @dairylando As we have predicted since March, despite huge reduction of #milk production and processing, UA internal dairy use/consumption slumped due to war, migration, and deterioration of population wealth.

In July we’ve observed crush of UA internal #grains and oil seeds prices due to port’s blockade by aggressor and the eve of new crops harvesting season. Compound #feed index downed to last year’s minimal (incl. sunflower meal traded 0,05 EUR/kg).

3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
July is officially over, but that doesn't mean that the bad policies & actions from the Left will stay in the past.‼️

🧵Let's take a look at all of the ugly things that progressives pushed last month.

1. Twitter banned Nicole Solas for standing up against woke gender ideology.…
2. Merriam-Webster... aka the dictionary... has a new definition of woman.…
Read 10 tweets
It's taboo in the media to say the economy is in #recession.

The reality is that Federal Reserve has deliberately triggered a recession, with the aim of increasing unemployment and lowering wages.

This is to counterbalance bank bailouts + war spending. 1/
Whenever @LHSummers opens his mouth, it's to rail against the supposed terrestrial paradise for workers created by government spending.

But combining Fed money printing + Cares act spending 9/10 of emergency money went to companies or the markets, not workers. 2/
Jerome Powell says unemployment must rise to correct what he called the "imbalance" in the labor market caused by the pandemic.

Which is a strange way of saying that a million workers are dead and the rest have to be whipped harder to make up for the work of dead and maimed. 3/
Read 5 tweets
The prospect of winning this slot's progressive jackpot #recession can make you feel better again. The jackpot can be won if you spin three consecutive golden balls #TheFinalFight; it's not simple to do so.…

but it's worth a few spins to try.
The golden football symbol is a wild, and it can be used to replace any other symbol to help you win the jackpot. The progressive jackpot is won if you get three in a row.…
Review of Golden Goal: Final Verdict: The slot machine Golden Goal has a straightforward football theme. This slot isn't particularly elegant and will likely appeal more to devoted players. @JayKornegay…
Read 6 tweets
The United States economy is officially in a recession with the past two quarters contraction being reported by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.… #recession #recession2022
Most Americans already knew that the economy was in trouble due to the forty-year high inflation that has bloomed due to unnecessary federal government spending splurges since December of 2020.
Intractable supply chain issues that are exacerbated by a Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg, who is more interested in his next hoped for job than the one he currently holds.
Read 9 tweets
The U.S. economy contracted another 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a 1.6 percent decline in the first quarter and thus marking the second consecutive quarter of negative growth — usually thought to signal a recession.… #recession
Since quarterly tabulation of the Gross Domestic Product began in 1947, GDP contractions in Q1 49 - Q2 49, Q3 53 – Q1 54, Q4 57 – Q1 58, Q4 69 – Q1 70, Q3 74 – Q1 75, Q2 80 – Q3 80, Q4 81 – Q1 82, Q4 90 – Q1 91, Q3 08 – Q2 09 and Q1 20 – Q2 20 have all accompanied recessions.
And then there were the non-consecutive quarterly contractions of GDP within a twelve-month period that occurred in 1960 and 2001, respectively, which similarly accompanied recessions.
Read 4 tweets
The US is now officially in a technical recession, after printing a second negative quarter of GDP growth: -0.9%.

Let's take look at the last 5 recessions, and how this one may be different. 👇
A recession is defined as "a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters."
There are 2 types of recessions:

• Recession: A recessionary phase that sustains for a considerable length of time.
• Technical recession: A back-to-back decline (for two consecutive quarters) in the GDP.

Following today's GDP data, the US is now in a "technical recession".
Read 15 tweets
The Inflation Reduction Act includes a 15 percent corporate minimum tax, drug price controls, IRS tax enforcement, and a tax hike on carried interest to pay for increased spending on energy and health insurance subsidies as well as deficit reduction.

The on-again-off-again negotiations over the proposed #BuildBackBetter tax increases on corporations and high-income earners appears to be… on again.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is now expressing support for something called the #InflationReductionAct. (2/9)
Next week, the Senate is scheduled to begin voting on a reconciliation bill that may put all of the #BuildBackBetter tax and spending increases on the table. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
Recognizing trends in the market must be so simple. Impossible to screw this up, right? Well, it couldn't be further from the truth. It's very difficult as the trends are fractals - they are self-complex. Recognizing them is a skill. Here's something I got to aid. Hope it helps🧡 Image
Speaking of trends, let's not forget about volatility. It can be measured in different ways as it corresponds with the probability or money in danger. Indicators such as ATR help control the risk to avoid devastating losses. The FOMC meeting may liquidate many traders tomorrow... Image
... And to avoid the devastating losses and liquidations tomorrow, you'd need a concise trading system. A well-composed system defines the markets, entries, exits, stop-losses, tactics, and position sizing. Having those in place can save you from extreme ruin. Use this for help! Image
Read 13 tweets
Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:

But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets
Don’t look now, but the race for Congress in 2022 appears to be tightening, judging by the generic Congressional ballot.… #midterms2022
In the latest Emerson poll, which Republicans have led all year long, the GOP has just a 1-point edge now, 45 percent to 44 percent, amid a jump in enthusiasm among Democrats following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn #RoeVWade and return abortion to states.
In the latest Quinnipiac poll, which the #GOP has similarly led since Oct. 2021, Democrats are actually now ahead by 1 point, 45 to 44 percent. Other polls still show Republicans leading, but are Republicans doing enough to maximize their advantage?
Read 4 tweets
bonus features, this 5-reel and 25-line online slot offers free spins with multipliers – 3, 4, or 5 scattered Bags chock-full of presents trigger 10,15, or 20 rounds respectively while a random multiplier between 2x and 5x is awarded at every spin. #erikajayne #recession… The betting range starts at $0.25 while the maximum stake is capped at $6.25.As you have probably already guessed, this brand new creation of Play’ n Go is a Christmas edition of… popular Moon Princess. Based on the same 5x5 grid as its predecessor, this online slot boasts a greater winning potential, letting players take home up to 15,000x bet, which can range between $0.20 and $100. Embarking on the journey into the realm of the
Read 7 tweets
The Fed did it. Blew many forecasts. Banksters 🏦 got near 0% interest since Obama - who had corporate tax at 35%. We’re still at Trump’s 21% & @Sen_JoeManchin won’t budge. Stock market driven to all-time highs. Billionaires 💵richer. We suffer with #inflation & #recession
2/ 🧵⬇️

Corporate profits skyrocketed. 21% Trump tax. Still making $ on #recession or #inflation downturn - inflation is always a lagging indicator & seditious Orangeman spent nearly $9 trillion in 4 years under Fed Chair Jerome Powell; still embroiled in Fed trading scandals.
3/ 🧵⬇️

This is THEFT. Corporate masters pass inflation to YOU. They don’t eat that .. Look at this chart while Powell drove #WallStreet to all-time highs.

Banksters got rich, and fund #ClimateBreakdown with #BigOil and #BigCoal @ClimateHuman @OccupyWallStNYC @OccupyLA #ows
Read 13 tweets
1) Another view of 4M decline in LEI.

Not 4M in a row but % change in 4M. Perhaps -0.6%, -0.8%, +0.1%, -1.2% is worse than -0.2%, -0.3%, -0.1%, -0.4%?

All priors when 4M change was as low led to a #recession within a ...

$SPY $QQQ $TLT $GLD #Commodities
2) few Q's (or already in recession in some cases) since the '60's.

Interestingly, this approach dramatically shortened lead time to '08 recession vs LEI down 4M in a row. Signal kicked in Nov '07 instead Jul '06.

Apply your interpretations.

Jobless claims 4W MA rose 70K ...
3) last week.

Again, this did precede every recession since '68.

OTOH 2 of 10 priors ('84 and '96) didn't result in recessions.

However, if initial jobless claims approach anything near 300K, the patterns will be significantly different from the 2 ...
Read 7 tweets
Today is an hot day, not only for temperatures, but also for economic data.

Follow me meanwhile I unroll all the new prints we had today

Super important thread on #inflation and the #housing #market

Lot of metrics to cover, get comfortable and get ready

🤓🧵 Image
#CPI prints:



#Canada YoY

#Canada MoM

Let's unpack it briefly
With a 9.4% UK finds itself on the firsts European (continent) Countries that are approaching double digits #inflation, and with the lack of haste in interventions on the #monetary #policies side, the #peak #inflation seems still far away. Let alone the MoM momentum, still high
Read 20 tweets
#Wipro’s net profit drops 12% drop in Q1 as #recession fears grip its non-US clients…

By @jainrounak
IT services major #Wipro today reported a 12% decline in its #profits to ₹2,717 crore in the first quarter, as against ₹3,087 crore in the previous quarter.

The IT company’s revenues grew 3% sequentially to ₹22,001 crore in the same period, in line with analyst expectations.
Offering guidance for the September quarter, #Wipro said it expects IT services business revenue to be in the range of $2.82-2.87 billion, which translates to a sequential 3-5% growth.

However, Wipro CEO and MD Thierry Delaporte said the company is “pleased with the outcomes”.
Read 6 tweets
The Power of The Dollar 🧵

[a thread for normies -like me]
Long periods of #dollar-strength often ended with massive financial dislocations like the Latin American #debt crisis of the 80s and the Asian crisis of the 90s.

Oppositely, long periods of a weakening dollar came with strong markets like between 2003-2007.

Although the #USdollar is not itself an asset, cash is.

The dollar is the most common currency in which assets are quoted and exchanged in #financialmarkets and the economy.

It's the world's reserve currency (for now at least...) 2/ 20
Read 22 tweets

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