Thread by @jharveylewis

(Thread)
1. To get a better idea of where #Covid19 might be the biggest problem in the short term, I organized this growth rate chart from countries with highest to lowest rate increases over the past 8 days.

2. Among countries with a recent #Covid19 growth rate of 18% or higher between May 17-20 are #Ethiopia, #Brazil, #Bangladesh, #India, #Kenya, #Mexico, #Egypt, #Pakistan, #Congo, #Nigeria, #SouthAfrica, #Columbia, #Iraq, #Afghanistan, #Argentina, & #Sudan.

3. Countries Between 6-18% #Covid19 Growth Rate between May 17-20 Include #Indonesia, #Russia, #Philippines, #USA, #Iran, #Myanmar, #Uganda, #Algeria, #Ukraine, #Canada, & #Poland.

4. Countries Between 1-6% #Covid19 Growth Rate between May 17-20 Include #Japan, #Germany, #Vietnam, #Turkey, #UnitedKingdom, #Spain, #Italy, #Germany, #France, #SouthKorea, #Malaysia, #Niger, #BurkinaFaso, #Netherlands, & #Romania

5. Countries With Less Than 1% #Covid19 Growth Rate between May 17-20 Include #Taiwan, #Australia, #Tanzinia, #Cambodia, #Thailand, & #China (But Everybody Know's the #CCP's Numbers Are Complete Garbage).

6. Obviously there are tons of known & unknown factors at play that determine the likely hood of an extended outbreak or second wave including the ways a country responds to the outbreak, but...

7. If we look at a few known factors we can get a more clear idea of the risk of it overwhelming a country's health care system. In the chart below I filter out countries under 1,000 cases, under a growth rate of 18%, & population of under 15 million.

8. Each were scored based on the following factors: population size, growth rate, and number of nurses per 1,000 people (to give indication of relative health care capacity). Obviously it's a very rough estimate, but...

9. #India, #Bangladesh, #Congo, #Guatemala, #Pakistan are at the top of the list based on these factors. #Brazil and #Chile which are currently struggling, at least have plenty of healthcare workers to deal with the problem.

10. It's very sad to see places like the US caught in a cycle of problem, reaction, solution, (delay in action, lockdown, unrest, virus spreads again, and repeat) a downward spiral that ends in more lost lives & a bigger police state...

11. To avoid the cycle, or at least be prepared to prevent crisis in the future we should look at countries that avoided worst of the crisis without using restrictive lockdowns. One of the best examples we can learn from is #Taiwan: