South #Australia found out
the recent #COVID19 outbreak was not only brought out from one of their quarantine hotels - there were even infections (personnel->quaratinees?) happening inside the facility...
South #Australia is now working on major changes in their #quarantine system:
~no hotel for "positive" travellers, but at pllice-guarded medical facilities
~mandatory testing *before* boarding a flight to Australia
Tonight, a crowd of people rallied against #Hildburghausen´s measures. #Germany´s twitter goes crazy because ´no one was wearing masks´😱
(well, the district´s decree doesn´t even mandate them in this context...🤷)
I see comments like "What a shame, we (Germany) do send aid to remote places of the world - but we don't install a field hospital in #Hildburghausen to relief the crowded hospital from #COVID19 cases."
The most remote places just manage #COVID19:
"Second wave may not be over until March"
- fewer working from home
- less sense of urgency
- "last weekend, shopping streets were quite crowded"
(that interview took place before pictures of #BlackFriday came in). nos.nl/artikel/235840…
Q: Why were infection numbers decreasing much faster in the beginning? #RIVM "might be the effect of school holidays"
Slovakia has reduced its numbers via testing...
RIVM "yes, but they also closed schools"
Why don´t we close schools?
RIVM "~We as a society chose not to do so."
NL´s #RIVM: "the infections in 20-24 year olds have decreased (bars are closed).
Now the main infections are in 15-20 olds. That could be the older high school students....
And another important group is 50-60 year olds. They clearly get infected at work (besides at home)."
"#School settings may make up for ~8.5% of infections (with known origin(!)).
That doesn´t say it happens *in* schools, it may be *around* schools.
School setting infections are (only) half of infection numbers from workplaces or at home". nos.nl/artikel/235840…
Belgium has managed to step down from "1st in #COVID19 incidence of Europe" to place 21.
But no big ease in sight:
If you´re single, you will still only be allowed to have ONE #kuffelcontact💞at home!
You may invite a second person. But with distancing!
Actually, #Switzerland has decided rules for ski ressorts on December 4th.
But they will only come into force on December 9th.
Like: 1.5m distance &
"Closed cable car cabins may only be used to 2/3 capacity"
Until then, it's up to people's common sense bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/kr…
An alarm, that emerges all over #Japan, now:
medical personnel cannot cope anymore.
Osaka´s governour already asked other prefectures for help. They are stretched out, too.
So the military will try and see what they can do... www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
#Japan´s military will now (finally) see what they can do in Asahikawa as well.
2 hospitals asked for urgent support 2 weeks ago.
The city´s mayor found it "too difficult to decide" back then...
A small island in #Japan´s north is experiencing a massive #COVID19 outbreak.
In a few days, 2% of their population (´only´ ~50 people) were found to be "positive".
They are transported to cities in Hokkaido, where they strain the regional health system... www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Hokkaido can cope with the influx of infected islanders from Okushiri island, so far.
"but if additional local clusters would fill beds up..."
("...I think that could maybe cause panic" - he really said that)😳 www3.nhk.or.jp/sapporo-news/2…
The major city of Nagoya (West-Japan) has 297 #COVID19 beds.
But currently they can only operate 180 beds, due to shortage of medical personnel.
They already have 182 COVID-patients, so they started to transfer some to the smaller cities in the region.
"Unfortunately, the current #COVID19 situation in Europe makes it unlikely that we would be able to create the necessary conditions to ensure the health and safety of our staff, participants and the broader community" todayonline.com/world/world-ec…
you´ll have to read the whole text thoroughly.
But then you stumble upon
"With little evidence that schools contribute to higher rates of transmission"
that´s implying #schools suffer ´just the same transmission rate as anywhere´
That escalated quickly: #Saxony is the first state of Germany to announce a full scale #Lockdown.
They won´t have a "slow starting phase". From monday on
-non essential shops
are expected to be shut down until next year (January 10) staatsregierung.sachsen.de/aus-dem-kabine…
More states of #Germany already signal readiness for #Lockdown.
But it seems they opt for the "slow start" after Christmas, especially to avoid "X-mas Panic Shopping"
(which would be far worse than #BlackFriday, I imagine...)
There was the idea to wait with #Lockdown until everyone has organized all their "necessary" X-mas shopping (after Christmas).
But Baden-Württemberg comes with a surprise move of "thinking about" locking down after this weekend.
Strict night curfew starts TONIGHT 24:00 (??)
I know, you just wanted to start your weekend.
But our hundreds of employees need to have their work-certificate/laissez-passer in hands TODAY!
Mind staying a few hours longer?
we still don´t have any official regulatory text.
No, we don´t even know, if we need to show a work-certificate
we do have crazy work hours (including weekend & nighttime)
we always try to do things right.
Status report, from Baden-Württemberg (movement restrictions in force since this morning):
👍trams/ streetcars virtually empty
😣grannies and pops (unnecessarily) queuing for toiletpaper, as they believe all shops will close monday (wich had never been said, it´s what they think)
Frankfurt´s mayor just appologized:
"It wasn´t our intent to invite people to act recklessly"...
They promoted X-Mas shopping in the city´s centre by offering sponsored tram tickets today🚃🎫
"It was planned months ago. Now, I think it´s inappropriate"
Schools, kindergartens will close
Mandatory rapid (antigen) tests for personnel in nursing homes
Yes, most shops will close. But many stay open: food, drinks, Xmas-trees,... bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/…
Actually, the list of shops to stay open in #Germany´s #Lockdown is quite long.
But beware: it COULD be possible your supermarket will not be allowed to sell "non-food" items (like toys, etc.)!
(this might lead to absurd scenes, like it did in France...)
During the hard #Lockdown phase in #France, supermarkets had to cordon off "non-alimentary" goods.
The reason wasn´t that those goods were ´dangerous´.
It was an thought of as an act of "fairness" to those toy/ book/ etc. shops who had to close entirely.
People didn´t seem to care anymore.
The green line shows "shopping movements".
By the end of November this had surged to ~2 times the movements of March.
(To the very end you can see the #BlackFriday peak)
But follow the green line.
It shows ICU admissions would surge to higher levels than in the 2nd wave
within ~2 weeks, if nothing would change.
South Korea's still tries to focus on:
✔securing more hospital beds
✔finding asymptomatic "hidden spreaders,"
❌instead of adopting Level 3 restrictions,
since tougher restrictions would cause economic damage.
The #COVID19 situation in South Korea is
"prompting health authorities to seriously consider adopting the toughest virus curbs."
Just like it did yesterday.
(the current level of measures had been issued 9 days ago.
Maybe they hope effect will set in soon) m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
NL government is ..."considering additional measures regarding other modes of transport.
Over the next few days, with other EU states, NL will explore the scope for further limiting the risk of the new strain of the virus being brought over from the UK." government.nl/latest/news/20…
"New virus strain already in every part of Wales"
makes the idea of using police to stop individuals from packing their car and leaving London sound somewhat ´disproportionate´... bbc.com/news/uk-wales-…
The flight bans look like a swift solution...
(but remember: NL has already confirmed they had one case of the new #COVID19 strain in their country ~2-3 weeks ago).
And there´s also ferries, the Eurotunnel,...
#France announces a TOTAL travel ban for passengers coming from the #UK.
Starting tonight at midnight.
They emphasize that this is a TEMPORARY measure.
(for 48h, so far)
NOTE: All the other travel bans UK->EU are temporary, too.
"Privilege" in #Germany, Berlin-style
(when the last flights from UK arrived, the passengers were ´triaged´...
Some were ´qualified´ to leave without a test, go home by train and have their test arranged later...🙄)
ALL passenger transport from UK is banned until January 1st.
Stranded dutch nationals are advised to look for accomodation in UK - there will be no way home.
(Except for lorry drivers. Goods traffic not affected) rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws…
British Transport Minister´s warning tonight:
Do not travel to Kent in hope to get to France...
#Germany´s state of North Rhine-Westphalia (#NRW) issued a ´Test & Quarantine´ ordonance for travellers from UK and South Africa, tonight.
It applies to those who arrived in the past 10 days.
(AND: it can be seen as a draft of HOW TRAVEL CAN RESUME SOON). land.nrw/de/pressemitte…
The new #UK / #ZA travel ordonance in Germany´s #NRW sounds practical:
1.) PCR Test presented or done at arrival
2.) quarantine at home (10 days)
3.) a 2nd PCR test after 5 days (if it says "negative", you´re cleared and free)
Director of Public Health:
“The new strain of Covid, which is increasingly rapidly in Tier 4 areas, is extremely worrying.
It is incredibly infectious and if you come in to contact with someone with this strain you are far more likely to catch it than the original strain."
Herefordshire is one of a few regions in #UK with quite low #COVID19 rates.
That means: pubs are open.
That was the first time, mass tests on asymptomatic public were performed in UK.
They used rapid (antigen) tests, roughly meaning only those who were currently able to infect others had a "positive" result.
IF investigations would show the new variant is more adapted to children, this
▫️"could alter the role children, and schools, play in spreading the virus."
▫️"might explain a significant proportion... of the transmission increase seen" bbc.com/news/uk-554069…
Still no move.
France still insists, all truck drivers must have a #COVD19 test.
the trucks are now being moved from the motorway to a dedicated parking lot.
The reqeuest for #COVID19 tests is not only for truck drivers.
Even french nationals who wish to return to #France from #UK would need to present a negative PCR test.
(French Minister for EU affairs made that clear, yesterday):
I can totally imagine,
telling one of these truck drivers
"Er, sorry chap - your #COVID19 test is positive... you need to stay 10 days in your cabin"
is not deemed a smart thing by most of them. #UK#EU
French Transport Minister:
planes, ships and Eurostar train are going back into service #UK - #France tomorrow morning.
Those with "legitimate reasons" will be allowed to travel, too.
(Of course: with a negative #COVID19 test.)
The Sikhs in Kent have been up to help since this morning!
Preparing and providing ~800 hot meals. Choice of pasta or curry/rice.😋
As well as other volunteers, salvation army, fire service did their best...
While passengers would need to provide their own negative #COVID19 test results (therefore could start earlier),
The tests for the stuck lorry drivers will be provided by authorities (therefore travel resumed at 7 a.m.)
Some bits of official information on #COVID19 testing for border crossings #UK to #France are now available in foreign languages!
(They don´t have all the information like where you can get the test,
but it´s a start...)
So far, it was only found in 2 cases. Both had no contact with each other, and had not been to UK.
The infections came up 10 days apart, suggesting there might be other carriers. nos.nl/artikel/236181…
Dover #COVID19 testing
arrived from France...
A first case of infection with "#UK´s" #SARSCoV2 variant was found in #Germany, today.
A passenger, who came on one of the last flights from London (sunday, Dec 20).
She recieved a rapid test at the airport: positive...
In Poland, a Christmas dinner table will always have an extra plate.🎄🍽️
It is a symbol of hope.
In the darkest times of Poland, families prepared this extra plate in case a member of the family came back from captivity…
Rapid tests from #UK crews will strictly be "self administered" (done by the testees themselves, under supervision).
They will not insert the swab deeply (might be risky with layman´s hands😤), but brush the cheeks and the nostrils in front of the nose...
#UK´s medical product authority had issued an
"authorisation for exceptional use"
of these rapid (antigen) / #LFT kits as a
"Self-Test device, to be used by members of the public"
on December 23. gov.uk/government/new…
The medical crews from #Poland also seem to follow the manufacturers´ instructions for rapid (antigen) test kits.
Would be interesting to see if there will be any differences in UK vs. PL/F test result-quota🤔
Japan confirmed, 5 flight passengers who arrived last weekend and tested "positive" do carry infections with the new "UK" variant #B117
They came from UK and had landed in Osaka and Tokyo.
Since their positive test upon arrival, they´d been in quarantine. www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
4 other cases in Japan, more worrying:
3 flight passengers from UK. They all tested "negative" upon arrival and went home.
As they later developped symptoms, it was discovered the infection had already spread to a family member.
Not yet clear if it´s #B117 www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
New ´official´ numbers from the truck drivers´ tests in UK.
(positivity rate "just" doubled in a day. it was ~0,12%, yesterday)...🤔
(Couldn´t they also be given another self-test kit,
to let them check again, when they arrive at home?
It´s ~5€ !)
It looks as if the #B117 infected pilot in Tokyo is one of the cases who were asymptomatic (and thus untested) upon arrival in Japan.
He arrived on Dec16, went home.
Tested positive Dec22,
Another family member (not been to UK) was found positive on Dec24 news.line.me/articles/oa-rp…
a little Update:
"UK" variant in JP
It has been confirmed that the #B117 infection of an airline pilot had been transmitted to one of his family members, back home in #Japan.
"The confirmed (#B117) cases identified are from a couple from Durham Region with
NO known travel history, exposure or high-risk contacts.
Durham Region is east of Toronto." cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
After his forces were "totally surprised" by flight passengers arriving from UK,
Sweden´s Head of National Border Police tweeted this...
(although I´d agree that the word "Mutantvirus" is silly, too)
#Sweden´s Head of Border Police is much more🕵️♂️in saying:
"Swedish citizens always have the right to enter the country."
(They still can do it by car...)
Quarantine is at home, not at the border.
And the standard protocol asks them to covid-test themselves. tt.omni.se/brittiskt-flyg…
Regional president of Valais (#Switzerland), in an interview:
"I can´t tell you the numbers. Certainly, some have vanished ...
Federal authorities didn´t hand us over relevant data in time, so we didn´t know who had to quarantine" #COVID🇨🇭#CHaos rts.ch/info/regions/v…
Meanwhile, in #London:
🚑Ambulance crews waiting ~6 hours to hand over patients to hospitals.
"The demand is occurring because of the rapid spread of the new variant, predicted to spread further across the rest of the capital in the coming days and weeks" bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
They are linked to a very unusual, LARGE outbreak at an ELEMENTARY #School (in Rotterdam)
40 infected teachers AND #STUDENTS, there - since end of November.
Mass sequencing has started. ad.nl/rotterdam/uitb…
Netherland´s #RIVM already did a first screening of 250 earlier #COVID19 cases in Rotterdam region.
´more than 95% of those cases were NOT the "UK" variant´ #B117...
Based on their mass sample sequencing, #Denmark states:
- #B117 was found in all regions
- mid November: around Copenhagen
- Since December: North Jutland🤔🐿️
- Signs of community spread, but still at low level
The case of vanishing Brits from #Verbier shows a chaotic picture of #Switzerland:
"Regional & federal authorities gave them authorisation to leave"
"After all, it´s the federals´ business to manage quarantine"
Meanwhile, #UK´s secretary of transport has published new "official" test results and comment for truck drivers, trying to cross the border to #France:
21.849 Tests, "just" 66 of them tested positive (0,3%)
#Switzerland´s National #COVID19 Science Task Force presents a model, how case numbers would behave, if new Virus variants (#B117, #501v2) would kick in.
(Despite current measures...)
#Switzerland (if virus variants would spread)
Case number development with
measures, currently good for R=0.9 (orange)
measures, currently good for R=0.8 (blue)
real R is currently ~0.9 but not reliable (holiday effects)
"On Dec21, when a text message from Swisscom went out to travellers and news started to break of the new rules, 🔹#Switzerland´s authorities gave #Brits the option to return home rather than quarantine🔹"
"On December 22 at 6:35 am, a Chilean passenger arrived on a flight from Madrid and was PCR-tested at the airport. She had spent a week in #London visiting relatives.
Dec23, her test result returned positive..." #B117
(Also took a connecting flight)
Oh, that #B117 infected flight passenger in #Chile...
she got tested at Santiago airport, when arriving from Europe.
And departed on another flight before her (positive) test result arrived.
“Rwanda has introduced tough and unrealistic measures to the Industry which will disrupt the entire supply chain and undermine the efficiency, seamlessness and cost-effectiveness of cargo transportation in the Region”
So they settled for... testing.
A resident of #France came back from South Africa.
It was only a few days after his return,
(when he felt #COVID19 symptoms)
that he decided to get a PCR test in #Switzerland (?)
And then isolated at home (in France).
#Ireland´s NPHET had already warned 2 days ago:
The current case curve is resembling the blue / red lines in the graph below📈.
As there is severe underrepporting, the actual situation might be even more serious... assets.gov.ie/117748/e3b13a2…
#France Ille-et-Vilaine prefecture activated its Crisis Operation Center, because of...
a rave party that´s been going on since yesterday.
It went a bit out of hands.
This morning, they counted 2.500 participants, from all across France (and Poland)🔊🕺
But maybe, one problem is still totally "unreal" for most of the ravers (and most of us): #B117
"There are 20-30 year olds coming in, with no other underlying conditions. Many don't even realize how sick they are"...
In August ´20, there had been an open-air rave of 10.000 folks in #France.
During evacuation, "2 #COVID19 test centres" were deployed (for voluntary testing)
No results reported. They would have gone under in France´s 2nd wave 2-3 weeks later, anyway...
Today, Regional Health Authorities say they provided ~500 rapid (antigen) tests to the site of #France´s rave party.
They also urge everyone who has been there to isolate 7 days at home and get tested after that. francebleu.fr/infos/faits-di…
(Remarkable) Details on #Germany´s 1st discovered case of #B117:
That young lady on the last flight from London,
she had already been transferred to a Quarantine Hotel (👍didn´t know we had this)
#B117 in #Switzerland:
A schoolboy (9 years) from London.
His school in #UK had been closed, due to #COVID19 cases.
He & his mother had spent 10 day 🇬🇧quarantine, then took a flight to CH (Dec20), 7 day 🇨🇭quarantine.
In CH, mother & son tested "positive".
#Tier4 is in force since Dec19. It´s 2 weeks now.
Usually, it takes ~3 weeks until results show how well measures work.⌛️
So, "in a week or so" might be a good time to see
if Tier 4 would be appropriate for other #UK regions...
(if you´d have that time)
Despite drastic measures (including barbed wire around some housings) the outbreak has now spread to more than 51 provinces.
This is how it started, ~2 weeks ago:
#Cyprus found that 12 out of 19 recently imported cases from UK carried #B117
"Of 19 positive tests for #COVID19 recorded on individuals who arrived in Cyprus from Britain between Dec. 6-20, Cypriot authorities found that 12 were for the new variant." de.reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
#Austria does very sporadic sequencing.
But even there, #SARSCoV2 variants have now been detected:
1x "South Africa" #501V2
4x "UK" #B117... interestingly/confusingly only 2 with the "UK" variant had been to UK (?????)🤨 sarscov2-austria.org
3 of #Austria´s 4 "UK" #B117 variant cases were children (12 / 10 / 9 years old). One came from #UK. The other 2 are from Slovakia (???)
"Even though they quarantined with (uninfected) family members, there is NO TRANSMISSION known"😯 orf.at/stories/319600…
😯#Austria found their 5 virus variant cases while sequencing samples of only 388 cases.
(targeted samples, like passengers from UK, but... that´s still ~1% of samples were already virus variants !!)
"The both Kids who were infected with the ´UK´ variant #B117 returned immediately to Slovakia..."
(Video at 31´35")
#Ireland´s CMO wrote pragmatically
~"We still believe, kids are quite safe in schools.
But somehow closing schools does lower overall case numbers in society. Why this happens? No-one knows for sure... 🤷♂️" assets.gov.ie/118212/b00522b…
This is, how #Ireland´s Health Minister (to whome the CMO letters are sent) interprets the advice on #Schools...
#Marseille fire department´s wastewater surveillance is a dedicated #COVID19 detection force.
They take samples of ~100 nursing homes, every week.
They also take sewer samples.
"Sometimes we can prevent clusters before the first person even shows symptoms"
And the wording ~"cantonal authorities decided..." + "we support their decision"
is usually a strong indicator that authorities didn´t negotiate much, but ordered the whole thing to close immediately
Here we get a look behind the scenes of #Marseille´s #COVID19 hunting fire brigade unit ´COMETE´.
(like adventurous innovators always do, they installed their lab in a garage...) lci.fr/societe/video-…
The family from #UK got tested, before they left for #France: negative.
They self-isolated 4 days in France, then got tested again negative.
At their party in Marseille, everyone did a rapid (antigen) test: negative
Another X-mas visit from #UK, in #France.
"Upon the very first symptoms, the family self-isolated at the grandparents´ house and got tested."
Nevertheless both grandparents got infected.
Grandpa needed to go to hospital (Dec 29).
(nope - not the "Large Hadron Collider"💫)
It's the "Lausanne Hockey Club"!⚾
And they're believed to already have spread infections to other teams (as early as January 2) during hockey matches.
year´s end was meant to bring families together.
To bring those who live abroad back to #Lebanon, so they could spend some money in cafés, shops, event locations - they opened just for that period.
~"if the #variants have been around for weeks/months, how do we interpret our #COVID19 curves?
Did the variants cause our (#Austria) peak in November?
Are our case numbers not going down because variants are here, now?
We simply can´t tell..."
One of the overrun hospitals in #Portugal (Torres Vedras, 2 nights ago).
There are 3 nursing homes affected by large outbreaks.
The hospital itself had to deal with 157 internal #COVID19 cases, already.
They managed to create 21 additional beds over night
"Only 7" of 970 tested positive, in a week.
That´s a ~720 incidence rate.
"No, we´re not an extraordinary hotspot. If you´d look in other villages around, you´d find similar numbers..."
(this🇨🇭tourism director from #Wengen convinces me...
to stay away) jungfrauzeitung.ch/artikel/187444/
Shortly before the start of the winter holidays, some schools in #Ontario (Canada) started to see more and more #COVID19 cases among staff & students.
After analyzing samples, the #Czech Republic has announced:
"around 10% of our samples are the #B117 variant."
And they vividly describe the variant´s capability:
"It can do in 6 days, what the old variant would have taken 10 days to do".⏱️💨 eurozpravy.cz/domaci/zdravot…
Various variants in various places of #Germany:
🔸40+ cases of #B117 in a nursing home
🔸Returnees from South Africa trip infected a befriendet family with #501V2
🔸A (completely) new variant was found in a hospital outbreak in Bavaria (properties unknown) br.de/nachrichten/ba…
From today, Germany´s new "Surveillance & Sequencing" ordinance will be active.
It simply guarantees the state will take over the costs of sequencing (for 5-10% of samples from positive #COVID19 cases)
due to #COVID19 outbreaks, both district hospitals signed off (no new admittances accepted)
Healthcare personnel is under "work quarantine" now:
Those who are infected but asymptomatic, work nordfriesland.de/Quicknavigatio…
In some places, infections have already been introduced into #Nordfriesland´s community.
Before it started, there were~380 in #quarantine.
This numbers is ~3.000, today.
On December 18, a man from Bjørnafjorden went to pick up visitors from UK at the airport.
The ride back home took ~40 minutes.
They were wearing masks.
Still, #B117 infection was transmitted in the car... nrk.no/vestland/henta…
(Yes, I omit the intro.
Let´s concentrate on the girl)
A little girl in #Belgium got infected with #B117.
She infected ~her entire family.
And a classmate at school.
At home, that classmate infected her mother, who works as a teacher at another school... ad.nl/buitenland/vla…
The little belgian girl´s #B117 infection caused a quarantine for 5.000 people:
-kids at 2 schools
-and all those kids´ contacts (families at home)
"What we have ahead of us is probably the greatest tragedy of recent centuries,
if it is even possible to find in #Portugal's history anything similar to what is and will happen in terms of the number of deaths,"
Yesterday, the #B117 variant was found in samples from 2 fatalities at a nursing home in Nordre Follo
(a municipality near #Oslo).
those samples had been taken ~3 weeks ago...
Further research showed:
-no known source of infection
-multiple contacts already infected
-suspected spread outside the facility to kindergarten
"We´ll revise our decision and reopen the Vinmonopolet liquor stores in the #Lockdown area.
The sudden cut off from alcohol supply can expose people with severe alcohol dependence to health risks"
(Norway´s Health Minister) direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/n…
When I said there was no other source of infection, it was sooooo "last wave".
#Norway´s health authority has sequenced 245 (old) #COVID19 cases´ samples around the Nordre Follo outbreak, so far.
(150 to go)
65 were the #B117 variant.
What they can say:
"They have some connection to 6 other communities"... aftenposten.no/norge/i/qAv7JE…
#Norway´s health authorities found the case of a nursing home employee in #Oslo.
He was the first in a #COVID19 outbreak at his Oslo workplace, Jan 6.
He had some contact to Nordre Follo,
so they sequenced the old samples...
all #B117. nrk.no/osloogviken/ko…
#Switzerland´s National #COVID19 Science Task Force has a new situation report out.
Here´s one key finding:
Only a few dark red spots are left.
Many are below "100" (7 day incidence).
Some have already broken the "magical 50" barrier, when everything was promised to be fine again...
in earlier days, before #B117. experience.arcgis.com/experience/478…
A week ago, when Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) became wary "we think some variant may be circulating- we have many outbreaks",
local authorities weren´t too convinced.
Then, the first 30 samples were sequenced:
11 are #B117.
the #Oxygen supply at Sintra hospital couldn't keep up with the high demand of 360 #COVID19 patients.
It didn't "collapse", but it seems the flow wasn't enough => some patients evacuated.
ICU is okay (takes relatively little O2).
A large outbreak of #COVID19 stopped a construction site in Oslo (#Norway).
34 are infected, so far.
Some of the workers reside in Nordre Follo (the current #B117 hotspot)...
"Almost everyone (146 workers) involved in the project is in quarantine".🚧👷♂️🏗️ aftenposten.no/oslo/i/mBLWmq/…
The fate of a not so successfull #SARSCoV2 variant:
Denmark kept monitoring the "Mink" mutated variant.
After the large outbreak in late summer, it faded away.
In week 1/2021 they sequenced 18% of all #COVID19 cases.
The mink variant had disappeared.
After a kindergarten in Freiburg, #Germany´s southwest state has now found #B117 in a 85 year old senior in #Stuttgart.
He should have been safe and sound in his nursing home, with no travel contacts.
I thought about cutting off this thread
and start new topic related sub-threats instead.
Just to arrange stuff more neatly
But where should I file this next one?
"the situation is so incredibly complex",
they just fenced a whole area in.
🤦Okay, thread goes on...
-large construction site
-living in tight conditions
-one came from UK
-one critically ill now
-youth center on same site
-massive variant outbreak
-´risk of fleeing quarantinees´
-South #Germany, Schelklingen schwaebische.de/landkreis/alb-…
~"We knew the #SARSCoV2 variants were imminent.
But we hoped we had more time (to have schools open for a while)
At the #Freiburg kindergarten, 18 cases are now confirmed as ´South Africa´ variant
Sequencing shows: 2-3% of all cases are a variant already"
In #Portugal, one #COVID19 indicator is the number of ambulances queuing at hospitals.
The largest line has now decreased from 46 to 6 ambulances waiting.
But that's due to a new pre-screening, turning people away who are not eligible for treatment lusa.pt/article/WJEpRc…
It is still not clear, what effect #B117 infections will have, if they become dominant, and there´s no clear picture, where they have already spread...
but #Norway intends to ease restrictions in the Lockdown area around Nordre Follo, soon. nrk.no/norge/regjerin…
Norway´s Education Minister:
"Being able to attend kindergarten and school is important both for play, learning and for countering loneliness and isolation,"
so communities in #B117 Lockdown may decide whether they return to full presence school classes
Norway´s Minister of Children and Family Affairs:
"I am glad that we can make everyday life (in the #B117 Lockdown area) a little easier.
For people under the age of 20, we open football training, handball or choir practice again."
In Norway´s view
"The main problem is import of cases", so #Norway has locked their borders.
One last loophole is closed, now:
"As falsified attestations of earlier #COVID19 infections might be presented at the border, this will no longer be accepted as an entry waiver"
2 days ago, #Norway´s Health Directorate issued a warning #B117 outlook:
"particularly relevant considering #Oslo´s situation right now where we see declining infection rates:
Cases may seem to go down.
But it may become challenging 2 weeks later"
("wild infections" - nobody knows where they came from)
#Oslo has 3 of them
(they are all #B117 variants)
(according to news)
The #Netherlands´ Outbreak Management Team OMT advises the dutch government to reopen primary schools and childcare.
The OMT seems to be split up - some members were against this advise.
"This poses a real risk" nos.nl/artikel/236661…
#Berlin´s hospital says they
"have the #B117 outbreak under control".
After one week and 30 cases, the infection chain has been identified and stopped.
"Work quarantine" for medical staff will continue (if they had potential contact)... rbb24.de/panorama/thema…
Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) has ~23 cases of #B117.
While they had no overview of the ´diffuse infections´, they started to ease "working quarantine" rules "pragmatically":
a german minister noted that with the new virus variants the old "incidence 50" limit might not be enough.
Maybe the #Lockdown would have to be extended beyond February...
(#ZeroCovid is not an official policy,
actually, there´s no target set) zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
With a german standard of "incidence 50"
(50 cases / 100.000 inhabitants per week)
there would be
tracing for ~900 such cases,
Nearly all 61 cases have been traced and connected.
Only for 6 cases, tracing has not been completed, yet. nrk.no/osloogviken/os…
"#Oslo can´t continue the strict measures we had last week just for precaution. The challenge will be to keep infection numbers down while gradually & controlled reopening our city.
Infection numbers and knowledge of #B117 determine how fast it will go" oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad…
Frome tomorrow on,
#Oslo will have less distancing & cohorting at schools.
(Individual) sports will open for young children, again.
School swimming will resume.
So why do the #Netherlands open primary schools and "think about" further schools?
Why do they promise to "eliminate the curfew, if case numbers keep falling"?
Is it to say
"We tried - and it sadly didn´t work"?
Is it a show?
The #Netherlands know: before X-mas, teenagers got infected by other teens and "sometimes" infected their families. That went down a lot, with the holidays/lockdown.
The "doubling every week" isn't really what official #RIVM numbers suggested.
But anyway: #Netherlands' primary schools will open, next week.
Because: "adults get infected by adults - and mostly not by children"...
Woooow - a gamechanger !!!
#COVID19 selftests will be made legal in #Germany, from tomorrow!
(okay, there are no certified devices for now)
That'd change my risk assessments for a lot of large-scale projects from "utterly stupid idea" to "doable"!
Until now, it was officially no big deal in #Germany, if contacts of #COVID19 cases kept on working
-as long as they followed basic hygiene
-their job was essential for the state (critical infrastructure)
For Healthcare Workers, #Germany´s new RKI rule would mean:
if they were contacts of a suspected #SARSCoV2 variant case, the former practise of putting them in "work quarantine" would now have to be ended.
The "timeline" in RKI's #Variant report isn't telling much.
The report says sample selection was heavily biased.
Other parts of the report say "data wasn't submitted in time", and evaluation methods were changed during the report period...
A (semi) useful map in the RKI #Variant report shows
how many cases of #B117 had been detected by labs, last week (up to Jan29).
It misses data ("not reported in time"),
but shows 2 hotspots:
-Flensburg (North, result of a big new year's eve party in Denmark)
-Hof (Czech border)
I have real doubt,
RKI´s #Variant report can be put to use at the moment.
A lot of data simply doesn´t match or is maybe outdated.
This is what #RKI says about #B117 cases
in the ENTIRE STATE of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW):
from November 2020 until January 31/2021.
This is what one City alone (Cologne) reported for February 3:
We need standards on dealing with #Variants
In Ludwigshafen (#Germany), one #B117 case popped up.
The "residence" of that case was immediately put under lockdown,
leading to "mental meltdown" of one of the inhabitants.
4 weeks ago,
the #Marseille fire department🚒 found an alarming rise in #SARSCoV2 markers during their routine sewage water screenings.
5 days later,
a #Cluster of 23 cases (including one of the first #B117 cases in #France) was found in the city...
#Hannover Region, also interesting:
"We had one child carrying #B117 at a primary #school.
After testing all contacts, we only found
1 more child had been infected.
We believe it happened via out of school contact."
I see why #Norway is so worried about the #B1351 outbreak in Bergen:
the hotspot is a construction site
inside a partly operational student housing.
1.600 students live there,
and they all take the same tram, shop at the same supermarket,
as the workers
"The infection risk from a person #vaping is well
BELOW that from the same person SPEAKING.
Speaking only for 6 minutes per hour already yields a higher infection risk than high intensity vaping"
"the time between exposure, incubation, symptoms and testing positive is rapidly shortening.
So much so, that even secondary close contacts are potentially infectious within that 48-hour window" #HyperSpeed premier.vic.gov.au/statement-prem…
Most of Europe may think this might be a bit too much of a panic...😂👇
but on the other hand:
what happens if you attach wings and jet thrust to a "hyper-speed" virus?
(how did it get there, after all?☝️🙄)
So #Germany has in fact declared
-and also Slovakia
"Areas of Variant of Concern"
That should trigger a new "COVID Protection Ordinance",
prohibiting persons to travel from those regions into Germany...
(no test can change that) rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
As it was announced during #France´s Health Minister´s visit
"the departement of #Moselle counts
~100 new ´South Africa´ variant cases, every day😯
Mostly in the North / West
It´s not only clusters, or travel related.
It seems to be community spread..." francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
several mayors had urged to close the #schools in #France´s departement of #Moselle, as they saw the #B1351 variant was mainly spreading there...
"The current confinement works!
We have to maintain the current level of confinement, certainly for the next 2 weeks
and we must realistically assume that we will have to keep it even during the month of March"
(schools closed) covid19.min-saude.pt/atual-nivel-de…
Portugal´s R(t) seems to crash down,
right after they closed schools...
(which was the very last measure that was left, as everything else didn´t seem to work)
(Note: it takes ~2-3 weeks before measures show effects. Earlier measures may well have worked)
What´s the special😵factor with Vosges departement?
While Moselle is kind of nice (I like it), it´s a lot of industry there.
Vosges on the other hand has mountains, snow, and...
as holidays have started in parts of France, already - TOURISTS (booked out)! tf1.fr/amp/tf1/jt-13h…
Norge🇳🇴...har du det bra??
#COVID19 case numbers in Norway have stopped going down and suddenly jumped up (+154 cases more than the same day last week).
(Norway´s Health Minister yesterday:
"infections are under control.
Have nice holidays,
be careful") nrk.no/norge/425-nye-…
#Norway´s National Health Institute #FHI right now, be like:
Norway´s National Health Institute:
Hei alle sammen!
There was some technical issue.
Some case reports got clogged in the system. And when we fixed it, they all came out at once.
There was no spike in #COVID19 case numbers.
Trend is still slowly downwards
"Hospitals/ICU are full. But only 50% are #COVID19"
"COVID Emergency calls start to increase, but not as bad as last year"
"We need to come out of this dictate, where public health commands over everything else" europe1.fr/societe/un-ren…
the doctor´s view would be shared by many, when he says:
the priority should be
"detection, treatment and isolation"
The "detection" capacity of #Moselle will soon receive a boost.
A convoy of #Marseille´s fire department started its 800 km route, this morning.
Their duty will be to develop a map of the different #SARSCoV2 variants´ spread, by analyzing wastewater.
Ulvik´s #B117 outbreak came from abroad, with a family.
They followed the rules, took 2 tests, quarantined for 10 days.
After quarantine was over, their son went to Ulvik school.
Just for one day...
Later that day, the parents felt #COVID19 symptoms. nrk.no/vestland/pasie…
Something to think about:
While Dunkerque´s incidence is currently ~230ish,
here´s the incidence for Moselle (purple ~290)
and Alpes-Maritime in the South of #France (blue, ~500) - they wonder why everyone freaks out about the numbers in the North and no-one talks about them...
Here´s more tricky data from #France:
The rate of positive tests.
Which one should we worry about?
Alpes-Maritimes (blue) has ~33% #B117
Nord (Dunkerque, green) has ~80% #B117
Moselle (purple) has many #B1351 cases, goes wild on testing, so positivity rate goes down
seeing incidences fall,
test positive rates fall,
even in those areas with a high share of #Variant cases,
the world swinging into "Yeah, let´s reopen!" mood,
I´m nearly falling to it myself...
Just swiftly checking the internet for #COVID19 reports
Y´all remember the case of the Quarantine Hotel staff in #Melbourne,
who received regular #COVID19 tests.
She tested "negative" before she went into a restaurant, "immediately" infected several people,
and was tested "negative" again, the next day... theage.com.au/national/victo…
One of the (false "negative" case´s) contacts at the #Melbourne restaurant was tested over and over for 2-3 days.
She returned 4 different results,
a "maybe" weak positive.
"We´re seeing it over and over again:
Contacts test ´negative´.
Then in quarantine they develop symptoms.
And even later they´re finally tested ´positive´.
This seems to be a feature of the new #variants"
🙄👉🔘 🚨 nrk.no/vestland/berge…
"The situation in #Moselle remained under control.
No further measures are needed.
It´s difficult to say why the variant hit this small landstrip."
(that´s too reassuring the neighbors that it is ´confined´) actu.fr/societe/corona…
A press conference of #Moselle´s regional authorities wasn´t so optimistic, earlier today:
"360 of 4.000 classes are closed, due to at least one case of #B1351 (in class or family)".
There was also some disappointment: #Moselle will not publish other wastewater test results, for now.
"It would say nothing. This is the first shot. It´s only after we´ve taken a 2nd sample that we can see a trend."
"symptoms of infections with the new variants start very late in quarantine"
"People left quarantine and THEN started to infect others"
is really a thing.
Case numbers have been increasing relentlessly.
"Meanwhile, EVERY NEW CASE is a #B117 variant"...
So, #Flensburg installs drastic measures:
- a nightcurfew &
- prohibiting contacts outside one´s household
for a week
(can be extended...) flensburg.de/PDF/Schreiben_…
#Denmark's police confirmed:
"Infections' pressure from #Flensburg caused new border measures"
Only a handful border crossings remain open, strictly controlled.
Entry allowance would need:
-a "worthy" cause
-a 'negative' #COVID19 test
-current incubation period seems to be CONSIDERABLY LONGER THAN 5 DAYS.
-asymptomatic (children) have a long ´period of opportunity´ to infect others
-current #RKI contact tracing rules aren´t sufficient
(RKI: ´infectious period starts 2 days before symptoms´)
#Germany is said to prepare a declaration as "High-Incidence Area" for France´s departement #Moselle.
(Yes, incidence is higher than in most german areas - but declaring it a ´Virusvariant-Area´ would be more appropriate, due to high #B1351 presence🤷) 20minutes.fr/monde/2982263-…
#Germany´s move isn´t a hectic one.
It was prepared (most certainly accorded).
Thursday, districts were already urged to issue special ordinances.
They will make it possible to provide the obligatory test AFTER crossing the border (e.g. at the workplace). landkreis-karlsruhe.de/Quicknavigatio…
In #NewZealand, one more contact of the "mystery" outbreak of Auckland has finally tested #COVID19 ´positive´.
Had been isolating at home, with partly infected family, for one week.🙄
No spread in the community.
A prediction from #Poland´s Health Minister:
"The third wave has started. From now on, case numbers will only go up until ~March/April, when we´ll reach the peak of infections which will be ~10-12.000 cases per day."
#Moselle´s X-mas mass testing brought positivity briefly down (as everyone wanted tests for holidays).
With the current mass testing positivity went down again. But recently it stopped falling.
Indicating infections are really spreading in the community...
As #Moselle´s Test-Trace-Isolate-Vaccinate strategy seems to lose its power, there might be something else needed to keep the situation in control.
Saying is: there might be a weekend-confinement.
More is expected to be told in a press conference, today. bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
One surprise measure due to the high #B1351 presence in #Moselle (France):
France will demand a negative PCR test from everyone who wants to ENTER Moselle.
For work-commuters it will be once per week.
Others need it every time.
So what went wrong for #Czechia?
A too hesitant reaction to #B117.
"We should have sequenced it, traced it and tried to delay the moment when that mutation becomes dominant.
This did not happen.
Now there is no longer any point in attempting to do that." english.radio.cz/80-percent-inf…
One possible link could be a younger sibling, who is at the highschool, where the recent #NewZealand outbreak took place.
But they already tested ´negative´,
Their mother seems to have been infected, even more recently...🤔 tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-z…
Oslo´s #Lockdown rules also point to another major factor in their recent outbreaks:
"We will introduce our own infection control rules for construction sites.
Deliberate or grossly negligent violations shall be punished with up to 6 months prison time"
"School will be either not happening or remote".
"We need to slow down infections among children and adolescents...we will look at possibilities to introduce mass testing and reduced contacts at school (for other lockdown stages, later)..." oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad…
#Moselle prefecture (France) just announced that crossing the border to #Germany will require (from Tuesday on):
a ´negative´ test (max 48 hours old, rapid-antigen tests are OK)
an entry form
strict entry rules come into force for those from "Area of #Variant Concern" #Moselle (France), who wish to enter #Germany.
There´ll be no border checks, but mobile controls.
A ´negative´ test must be shown on any request.
This is, what´s behind the "positive trend" of #Moselle´s ´not rising case numbers´: 1) testing has been greatly reduced 2) it´s school holidays! (12 days, already).
Shall we look at the positivity rate...In the next tweet - just for fun??? covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/
😕 sorry, no fun...
Since last week,
positivity rate in #Moselle has started to go up.
As it does in entire France,
or also in the departement Nord.
The situation in #France´s departement ´Nord´ isn´t good at all:
the incidence in Dunkerque has just surpassed 1.000
and while the had tried to use mutual aid of neighboring cities, they now have just started to transfer first patients out of the region... lepharedunkerquois.fr/109159/article…
#Austria has announced, they also have two (smaller) towns with an incidence above 1.000.
To prevent entire districts from locking down, they decided:
Everyone who wants to leave these towns needs a mandatory test.
Military will be staffing checkpoints. service.salzburg.gv.at/lkorrj/detail?…
Tromsø (#Norway) has 44 infected with #B117.
But they think, it´s "under control".
"We have always dealt with the latest infections as if it were the ´UK´ variant"
but "If we can't detect the infection early enough,...we may quickly lose control" nrk.no/tromsogfinnmar…
At the moment, #COVID19 spreads in #Norway with variable speeds:
in some regions it´s steady,
in Oslo, it seems to speed up.
While the country´s average is R~1.3,
Oslo has a local R-number of 1.55
This shows, where most people got infected in #Oslo, last week...
1) at home (by family members, I suppose) 2) at workplace 3) at school / kindergarten (students)
#Czechia´s Health Minister just announced:
- a work order for all healthcare workers to help and treat #COVID19 patients.
- it may finally be possible to transfer patients to other countries irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/c…
"General mobilization: mayors, caregivers, hospitals - everyone must be on the bridge, including on weekends, to vaccinate as quickly as possible.
We have entered a race against time in the epidemic..."
The promise of "more normality"
already unleashed its power today:
one cashier needed to constantly remind customers: "take a cart, please"
no distancing anymore, windows shut ("its´s cold")