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24 Nov 20, 2817 tweets, 2170 min read
Meanwhile in #France,
"the peak of this second wave is over"

(according to the President in his Adress to the Nation):
Wait... "the peak is over" doesn´t mean "it´s back to normal"!

Confinement will only fall on December 15,
if there´s less than 5.000 new cases a day.
(today it´s ~9.000).

France is disappointed.🙁

Although they certainly can make it happen.
Meanwhile in #Switzerland:
(excess mortality of the second wave is significant)

Good news: fastest decrease in infections happens in the worst hit areas now.
Image
South #Australia found out
the recent #COVID19 outbreak was not only brought out from one of their quarantine hotels - there were even infections (personnel->quaratinees?) happening inside the facility...
South #Australia is now working on major changes in their #quarantine system:
~no hotel for "positive" travellers, but at pllice-guarded medical facilities
~mandatory testing *before* boarding a flight to Australia
#Tokyo sees a "drastic rise in severe #COVID19 cases".

Today: 54 in "severe" hospital treatment.
Until 2 days ago it was constantly hovering around ~40.

😳
Now we know what colour was reserved for #COVID19 incidences above 500:

it´s fancy PINK!
(for #Hildburghausen, 526.9
First time ever a district in #Germany has reached that level...)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
In response to record #COVID19 numbers,
#Hildburghausen has issued a general decree.

Main point is: schools have to close.
(otherwise it´s the most liberal "lockdown extra light" I´ve seen so far in Germany...).
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/media/custom/2… Image
Tonight, a crowd of people rallied against #Hildburghausen´s measures.
#Germany´s twitter goes crazy because ´no one was wearing masks´😱
(well, the district´s decree doesn´t even mandate them in this context...🤷)

I´ll leave it with this chinese comment:
Oh.

583 (553 locally acquired) new #COVID19 cases in South Korea.
That's ~200 more than yesterday.

(in fact:
the highest number since...
March?!)
🚨
South Korea's highest number
since early March.

Back then, the high numbers were due to outbreaks in typical settings (night-life, churches,...)

Today:
"We are now in a situation where virus outbreaks can happen at any place we live in"

😫
602.9
#Hildburghausen
(and it´s spreading to neighbouring "Suhl",
which has lost its "yellow" ranking - their incidence jumped from ~35 to 65 today.)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Another index, a different colour:
#Hildburghausen is red now.

That means:
all beds in intensive care are full.

(it´s a small clinic with just 8 ICU beds.
"Only" 2 are occupied by #COVID19 patients. Both on ventilators.)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/3a1… Image
Yes, #Hildburghausen is a small district, so every single #COVID19 case will cause a large jump in their incidence.

(And then: every single death will leave a real gap in such a community. Apparently 2 died yesterday.
Other sources say: 3 more today...)
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/media/custom/2… Image
Oh no.
Don't trust your car's air condition !!!
Certain circumstances (tunnels, heat, cold) will let it *automatically* switch to recirculate mode!

My trial in August:
-1 person
-air con on, "fresh air" mode

-> from 500 to 1.400 ppm CO2 in 20 minutes!
😵
Image
I see comments like "What a shame, we (Germany) do send aid to remote places of the world - but we don't install a field hospital in #Hildburghausen to relief the crowded hospital from #COVID19 cases."

Well,
The most remote places just manage #COVID19:
"Everyone is urged to leave the city center"

#Rotterdam´s mayor decided to shut all shops,
due to "extreme crowding" in the city.

It´s "#BlackFriday".
#BlackFriday while #COVID19 cases in NL are staying constantly high.
A balancing act between interests.

(with priorities, obviously...)
When tourism service ´MustSeeRotterdam´ tweets

"It´s really too crowded here, folks ! Go home please !"

You know it´s serious.
🔊"...for your own health: go home ! Shops will close now!"

#BlackFriday #Rotterdam
#Netherlands´ disease center #RIVM:

"Second wave may not be over until March"
Why?
- fewer working from home
- less sense of urgency
- "last weekend, shopping streets were quite crowded"
(that interview took place before pictures of #BlackFriday came in).
nos.nl/artikel/235840…
Q: Why were infection numbers decreasing much faster in the beginning?
#RIVM "might be the effect of school holidays"

Slovakia has reduced its numbers via testing...
RIVM "yes, but they also closed schools"

Why don´t we close schools?
RIVM "~We as a society chose not to do so."
NL´s #RIVM: "the infections in 20-24 year olds have decreased (bars are closed).
Now the main infections are in 15-20 olds. That could be the older high school students....

And another important group is 50-60 year olds. They clearly get infected at work (besides at home)."
NL´s #RIVM:
"#School settings may make up for ~8.5% of infections (with known origin(!)).
That doesn´t say it happens *in* schools, it may be *around* schools.

School setting infections are (only) half of infection numbers from workplaces or at home".
nos.nl/artikel/235840… Image
Belgium has managed to step down from "1st in #COVID19 incidence of Europe" to place 21.
But no big ease in sight:
If you´re single, you will still only be allowed to have ONE #kuffelcontact💞at home!
You may invite a second person. But with distancing!
Q:"But, but, all our neighbours are allowed to have parties for Christmas!!!"😫

Belgium´s Health Minister answers...,

(it feels narrow-minded, fun-killing, simply annoying,
but you know:
he´s right.)
His answer in short: "Yep. Our neighbours aren´t wise"
😯
#Hildburghausen hits the panic-button.
From tomorrow on, everything is cancelled / banned:
Town council meetings
Political party essamblies
Religious assemblies
Markets and fairs

Rallies and funeral ceremonies need authorization

(masks are mandatory)
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/media/custom/2… Image
😳
Even the age groups
0 to 4 years
5 to 9 years
had a week-incidence around ~300 ?!

It´s obvious, why they closed schools and kindergartens, then.
(data of #Hildburghausen, ~1 week ago)
corona-data.eu/thueringen/lk-… Image
#Austria is about to provide rapid testing to their entire population.
#Vienna starts early:
from December 04 to 13,
they will have 3 large testing venues.
With 286 parallel test lines.

"That should be good for 14.000 rapid tests per hour."

Q: "Why does #Vienna's test campaign start earlier than the rest of #Austria?"

A: "We'd like to have everyone enjoying Christmas. Even, if they had a positive #COVID19 test, their (10 day) quarantine would be over by then".
coronavirus.wien.gv.at/site/faq-masse…
🙄
Three months with no #COVID19 case
in the entire country (#Vietnam)

1 man changed that.
After 2 negative tests, he "met with friends and family when he should have been self-isolating."

Test #3 was "positive".
200 contacts...
vietnamnews.vn/society/816469…
The quarantine break in #Vietnam has already lead to spreading #COVID19:
Case 1347 is an English teacher.
He already infected a student and his nephew.

Case count is now at 1351.
(For the entire country,
for the entire pandemic,
including imported cases!)
vietnamnews.vn/society/816699…
After several outbreaks/clusters, South Korea has a record number of people in quarantine.

Prime Minister: "the latest virus wave is difficult to control by government measures alone, as transmissions were reportedly occurring virtually in all places."
490,000 students +120.000 staff will take part in South Korea's College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) on Thursday.

Among them:
21 coronavirus patients and
144 people in quarantine.

Those who tested "positive" will take the exam in special hospitals.🎓
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Don't feel fit for your college entry exam?
Thinking about taking a sick leave instead?
😂
Forget it (in South Korea)!
❗
There are 172 dedicated hospital beds ready for #COVID19 exam student patients.

(Their future life depends on that one exam...)
Thinking about that guy,
calling Berlin's #COVID19 hotline to ask which places were the most risky ones for catching the virus.

Turned out he was a student, trying to get infected in order to be excused from exams.

From Berlin's Health Authority podcast:
gesundheitsamtneukoelln.podigee.io/1-typisch-neuk…
"Red Alert for the entire KPOP industry":
Members of 2 #KPOP bands have been found to be infected with #COVID19.

Many potential contacts are already being tested.
TV shows and concerts are cancelled across South Korea...
Following reactions of (presumably) young KPOP fans from around the world, there´s no way to say "young people don´t care about #COVID19".

Discussions evolve around asymptomatic spread,
and there´s a petition to stop all concerts to prevent further spread
www1.president.go.kr/petitions/5943…
#Aerosols,
now taken seriously:

"In indoor settings with poor / unknown ventilation,
better wear a mask when welcoming visitors.
REGARDLESS OF DISTANCING."

(new modification of #WHO guidance):
who.int/publications/i… Image
Maybe it´s a backlog and
#Hildburghausen didn´t really see 8 people die in 1 day😯

But out of a total 19 who died there in relation to #COVID19 during the entire pandemic, 18 seem to have died in the last ~30 days...
😳
(says their official daily report):
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/Aktuelles-Covi… ImageImage
In ~a month, #France has brought new #COVID19 infections down from
~50.000 a day to
~10.000 a day

Their goal is to reach 5.000 per day,
on December 15th.

(That would mean a crazy low 7 day incidence of ~50!)
It looks like they´re on their way to make it!
10 days ago, #Seoul had imposed social distancing measures (Level 2.5)

"If we enter into Level 3 of social distancing, all economic activities will effectively grind to a halt,"

"Level 3 is the last card we will use in a desperately dangerous situation"
It's not just #Seoul.
"Bigger wave of pandemic in progress"...
It's developping all over South Korea.

"the current level of measures is ineffective"
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
South Korea´s life deciding CSAT school exams fell in a "lucky" period of lower case numbers.
They would not have been possible with Level 3 restrictions.

They went like a smooth clockwork.
Even for those in #COVID19 hospital isolation wards...
Image
For the first time, #Seoul has decided to turn off night life after 9 p.m.

"We have tried hard to come up with measures that would allow the economy to rotate as much as possible.

But now, our priority is to protect the safety and lives of our citizens."
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Osaka (Japan) turns on the red warning lights.

"I would like to officially announce a state of emergency for medical facilities," #Osaka´s Governour told reporters.

(Hospital / ICU beds for #COVID19 patients are over 50% occupied.)
japantoday.com/category/natio… Image
In many of Germany´s cities, #COVID19 case numbers still won´t come down.
There seem to be no defined #Clusters.
The spread is very diffuse in the community.

One new measure is:
Nighttime curfews in high-incidence places.

#Mannheim will start tonight:
Tricky details in #Mannheim´s curfew ordonance:
~
Q: "Will shops have to close after 9 p.m.?"🥺

A: "No worries. They´re free to stay open if they wish. It´s just that no-one will be allowed to go out for shopping."😏
~
mannheim.de/de/information… Image
Some areas in Austria have started mass testing for #COVID19 (rapid antigen-tests).
For #Vorarlberg, the results are published in realtime:

Today, 52.342 tests have been performed
of which 191 turned out to be currently infectious.
(all asymptomatic!)
vorarlbergtestet.lwz-vorarlberg.at/grafana/d/uEEQ… Image
🕵️Europol Warning👮

They think

🔸counterfeit, fake vaccines
🔸illegally refilling of empty vials
🔸hijacking and theft of vaccine transports

may be upcoming topics, now.
europol.europa.eu/newsroom/news/… Image
#Hildburghausen´s results from voluntary mass tests for teachers and students are in.

Out of 2.418 (rapid antigen) tests
15 were found to be currently infectious.

Note: tests took place over 1 week after schools had closed (so infection sources unclear).
rundschau.info/interesse-an-c…
Me, to a french colleague:
"Hey, quite impressive that #France brought down their incidence from ~500 down to ~100 in about 4 weeks!"

He, enraged:
"Bah, what you see is only half the truth - it´s due to reduced testing as well"...

😳 oh.
meteo-covid.com/test-covid19-s… Image
What ever they did, in the #Netherlands...
it causes the #COVID19 case numbers to surge back up again.

😕And this comes at a very bad time, right now...
nos.nl/artikel/235938… Image
Today is #Pakjesavond in the #Netherlands.
Families gather and Sinterklaas manages to deposit some presents, without anyone noticing how.

He has little helpers that take people with them in their sack, when they didn´t behave well.
This year,
that might actually come true...
😳
What could be the reason for those re-surging numbers in the #Netherlands?

a.) that infamous #BlackFriday shopping chaos, one week ago
b.) the fact that since December 1st, #COVID19 tests are finally also accessible for contacts with no symptoms.
➡️📈
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Oh,
last minute present shopping?

#Amsterdam tried to keep shopping masses at bay with a one-way system, today.
After one hour they gave up:

"We´re FULL.
Give up your shopping plan,
or go somewhere else !
Come another day,
come alone"
Dutch Railways (NS) is quite charming today...
"If you think it´s too full, just get off our bus!"

Really? - the guidelines for NL public transport were never changed back to some sort of distancing again?
(since July 1st. NL daily incidence was 0.4, then...)
🤷@Sustainable2050 ImageImage
This kid is a huge #Hayabusa2 Asteroid Explorer fan.
She went to see the capsule separation sequence at a public viewing.

She made herself a costume.
With solar panels.
That serve as social distancing guards as well.

(I see a future Nobel prize awaardee)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
#Switzerland's ski ressorts are open again.

And it matches expectations.

The lift operator's comment:
"I can see nothing illegal here. The 1.5m distancing rule is not in force, yet..."
Image
Actually,
#Switzerland has decided rules for ski ressorts on December 4th.

But they will only come into force on December 9th.
Like: 1.5m distance &
"Closed cable car cabins may only be used to 2/3 capacity"
😕
Until then, it's up to people's common sense
bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/kr… Image
An alarm, that emerges all over #Japan, now:
medical personnel cannot cope anymore.

Osaka´s governour already asked other prefectures for help. They are stretched out, too.
So the military will try and see what they can do...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
#Japan´s military will now (finally) see what they can do in Asahikawa as well.

2 hospitals asked for urgent support 2 weeks ago.
The city´s mayor found it "too difficult to decide" back then...

Each hospital has ~200 infections now (including staff)
mainichi.jp/articles/20201…
A small island in #Japan´s north is experiencing a massive #COVID19 outbreak.
In a few days, 2% of their population (´only´ ~50 people) were found to be "positive".
They are transported to cities in Hokkaido, where they strain the regional health system...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Hokkaido can cope with the influx of infected islanders from Okushiri island, so far.

"but if additional local clusters would fill beds up..."
「パニックになる可能性は出てくる」
("...I think that could maybe cause panic" - he really said that)😳
www3.nhk.or.jp/sapporo-news/2… Image
The major city of Nagoya (West-Japan) has 297 #COVID19 beds.
But currently they can only operate 180 beds, due to shortage of medical personnel.

They already have 182 COVID-patients, so they started to transfer some to the smaller cities in the region.
😧
Yes, measures do have economic impact

"Unfortunately, the current #COVID19 situation in Europe makes it unlikely that we would be able to create the necessary conditions to ensure the health and safety of our staff, participants and the broader community"
todayonline.com/world/world-ec…
Of course,
you´ll have to read the whole text thoroughly.
But then you stumble upon

"With little evidence that schools contribute to higher rates of transmission"

🤔Wait...
that´s implying #schools suffer ´just the same transmission rate as anywhere´
no?
"Case numbers in the #Netherlands are rising again.
Soon hospital admissions will rise, too..."

~"we thought we´d be able to have less strict rules by Christmas - we may need to abandon that idea, now..."
nos.nl/artikel/235967… Image
So the surge in incidence numbers (23.3↗️41) in the #Netherlands is not just caused by recently testing asymptomatic contacts (since December 1st)?

Test positivity was 11.1%, last tuesday.

There´ll be a new positivity index today.
Let´s wait and see...
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Germany´s national science academy #Leopoldina argues for a full #Lockdown (4 weeks, slow start next week).

Besides many scientific arguments, this one´s striking:
"in the last 7 days, Germany has seen more #COVID19 deaths than traffic fatalities in 2019"
leopoldina.org/uploads/tx_leo… Image
That escalated quickly:
#Saxony is the first state of Germany to announce a full scale #Lockdown.
They won´t have a "slow starting phase". From monday on
-schools
-kindergartens
-non essential shops
are expected to be shut down until next year (January 10)
staatsregierung.sachsen.de/aus-dem-kabine… Image
More states of #Germany already signal readiness for #Lockdown.
But it seems they opt for the "slow start" after Christmas, especially to avoid "X-mas Panic Shopping"
(which would be far worse than #BlackFriday, I imagine...)
😱🕦🎁
By the way:
#Netherlands´ disease center #RIVM just stated, that the current surge in NL´s #COVID19 incidence could be linked to:

a.) the #BlackFriday shopping craze (nov 27th) AND
b.) the new regime of testing asymptomatic contacts (since Dec 1st)
nos.nl/artikel/235980…
Yes,
test positivity rate in the #Netherlands has indeed risen.
From 11.1 (last week) to 11.6% today.

That´s not much.
But definitely the wrong direction if you´d hoped to ease some COVID rules🙄
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
It had been discussed for a long time in #Germany´s state of Baden-Württemberg - and it´s still very controversial:

Those who notoriously escape from #quarantine may soon be commited to special (guarded) quarantine institutions.
(like in AUS, NZ, TW,...)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
You know,
Germany (so far): with a #Quarantine order you´re ought to stay in your home (in fact authorities are far too overwhelmed to control)

Taiwan: leave your quarantine room for 8 seconds and you´re screwed:
asiaone.com/asia/man-servi…
Appalling observation in #Switzerland:
-#COVID19 situation starts to deteriorate again
-case numbers start surging again
-intensive care is used to capacity
-medical personnel is exhausted

They held an extraordinary assembly, today...
"It's the first time, #Switzerland experiences a situation like this."
#COVID19 numbers are stagnating at high level. They are not decreasing, but are likely to go up again.

Swiss government is now proposing a (very mild) countrywide #Lockdown...
Switzerland's first steps:
-nearly everything will close daily, at 7 p.m.
-no public events

Sounds soft.
But: if numbers continue to rise next week (very likely), restaurants and shops might be closed entirely.
From tomorrow on, #Italy will apply new entry rules.
Transport carriers will be obligued to:

measure temperature of passengers
equip passengers with masks
verify COVID test certificates
operate at 50% capacity
refuse transport of non-compliant passengers
esteri.it/mae/resource/d… Image
While train operators from Austria and France comply with #Italy´s new entry rules, #Switzerland´s rail provider #SBB simply said:

No way.

Major european train lines will be cut at the border.
Train traffic to Italy is halted indefinitely.🤷
srf.ch/news/schweiz/s…
#Sweden's Stockholm Region just held a press conference.

It is said, the entire region's intensive care was nearly full.
"Today, there are 5 or 7 places left"...
#Sweden #COVID19
Stockholm Region:
"That´s basically all intensive care places we have..."

They have 89.
They were full. Image
Stockholm´s Health Director in a calm voice:
~"The health system still works because we do our outmost.

But this cannot go on.

This is enough now.
(Nu får det vara nog)

After work, coffee parties, crowds for Christmas shopping,...
That´s not worth it!"
arbetarskydd.se/arbetsmiljo/ha…
In fact,
#Stockholm region has ~160 ICU beds.
~89 were filled with #COVID19 patients.

There are no additional beds.
The "normal cases" ICUs are also full.
(with operations, postponed from the first waves, etc.)
svt.se/nyheter/lokalt…
💈A heads-up to my hairdresser's other clients:

I took my #Aranet4 CO2 monitor with me for a haircut.

Maestro was shocked to see his thought-out aeration plan failed.
We spent an hour experimenting with windows.

He's happy now.

(Your next visit might be chilly,
sorry.)
💨❄⛄ Image
I´m worried about this tiny spot on the map.
Somehow, the virus has managed to enter the city of #Suhl.

Their incidence was 29.9, two weeks ago.
Today it´s 318.

Suhl is the most overaged city in entire Germany.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
You know:
the average age of the population in the city of #Suhl is:
~50.3 years (!)

We´re afraid of any #COVID19 outbreaks, there.
tlug-jena.de/uw_raum/umwelt… Image
Most of #Suhl´s #COVID19 cases seem to be in a nursing home, so far.

But what´s most worrisome:
a week ago, the city stopped keeping track of the number of contacts...
(it´s just "over 300", since then)

suhltrifft.de/content/blogca… Image
There was the idea to wait with #Lockdown until everyone has organized all their "necessary" X-mas shopping (after Christmas).
But Baden-Württemberg comes with a surprise move of "thinking about" locking down after this weekend.

😱🎁Panic this Saturday🙄
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Surprise I:
Daytime movement restrictions will already be in force by TOMORROW.👍

Surprise II:
you can still practically do anything.
(including panic-shopping, if you´ve lost faith in announcements)🤪

(ONLY exception: "lingering around in the city")🤷
baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/all… Image
Surprise III:
Strict night curfew starts TONIGHT 24:00 (??)

"Hey folks,
I know, you just wanted to start your weekend.
But our hundreds of employees need to have their work-certificate/laissez-passer in hands TODAY!
Mind staying a few hours longer?

Stay strong💕
yours
KlimaZen" Image
No,
we still don´t have any official regulatory text.
No, we don´t even know, if we need to show a work-certificate
Yes,
we do have crazy work hours (including weekend & nighttime)
Yes,
we always try to do things right.

So,
@RegierungBW drives us crazy.

#Ausgangsbeschränkung
Yes, it´s obvious.
Baden-Württemberg needs to act immediately.

Out of 2.900 ICU places,
2.363 (81%) are occupied today.

Last week, case numbers were ~3.000 per day.
Now we have 4.000 a day (+33%)
In ~3 weeks, ICU will rise by 33%, too.
That´s 107%, then.
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/DE/Fachinf… Image
Oh,
'If you meet with 5 persons, you need to stay indoors, in a private room.

If you thought it would make more sense to meet outside in public (you know, #Aerosol stuff),
forget it.
That's prohibited.'

That's #Maultaschen logic...
😅
#Maultaschen:
traditional meal in Baden-Württemberg.
Minced meat, wrapped in pasta, so that it is hidden and you can pretend to eat vegetarian....
It has cultural heritage status.

Also depicts: "If you do stupid stuff, we don't care if we can't see it".
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maultasche
Another formerly leading country
losing against #COVID19.

South Korea´s new cases jumped to 950 today. A new all-time record.
The day before it was 689.
(that´s +38% in one day)

Disturbing to see, where they got infected...
Image
Much of South Korea was under "the second highest alert", but
"Despite the heightened social distancing, the volume of movement has not been reduced enough".

(Yesterday´s major clusters:
- restaurant
- church
- school
- office)

Yes, they are still open.
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
One example how South Korea lost it:

November 28th:
A restaurant in Seoul had a "performance" on stage.
Mask use was "insufficient". First case found.

14 days later,
that #Cluster has spread to
230 people. ImageImage
If a teenager tells you they can do things on their own,
without Interference from adults...
they're probably right so.

(Including their capability to spread the pandemic)
#Highschool #COVID19 #Cluster
Status report, from Baden-Württemberg (movement restrictions in force since this morning):
👍trams/ streetcars virtually empty
😣grannies and pops (unnecessarily) queuing for toiletpaper, as they believe all shops will close monday (wich had never been said, it´s what they think)
Frankfurt´s mayor just appologized:
"It wasn´t our intent to invite people to act recklessly"...

They promoted X-Mas shopping in the city´s centre by offering sponsored tram tickets today🚃🎫
"It was planned months ago. Now, I think it´s inappropriate"
🙄
The first night curfew approaches...
🕗😨 and time is flying!
Just over 2 hours left, until everyone in Baden-Württemberg needs to be at home!

Currently people start making emergency calls to police, to ask for advice😱📞...
🙄
1.5 hours left...🕗😰 #curfew

2 discounters,
just around the corner from each other.

(in case you´re in a hurry, that nifty feature of google maps would come in handy!)
google.com/maps/place/ALD… ImageImage
Silent night.
You can hear a falling leaf, when it hits the ground.
🍃
The nice side of curfew.😌
South Korea sees another record.
First time the country has more than 1.000 #COVID19 cases (1.030) in a day.

But they're still reluctant to switch to their highest alert (Level 3 should come into force if cases surge above 800)...
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
For now, South Korea's "3 week containment campaign"' is only about testing.
From monday they're rolling out free antigen-rapid tests, at 150 new test stations.

(they already calculate case numbers to virtually explode, due to increased testing)...
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Rumours are:
#Germany might start a 3.5 week containment campaign on Wednesday.

It might close shops down, except supermarkets.

(⚠Monday, Tuesday will be murderous. People will go crazy for X-mas presents.
My advice: 🔖design a nice voucher instead!)
businessinsider.de/politik/deutsc…
The Highschool #Cluster in South Korea isn´t spreding exclusively among the teenagers anymore.

Infections in the students´ families have been found, now.
facebook.com/covid19korea/p… ImageImage
The restaurant #Cluster in South Korea
(started 15 days ago with singing and "insufficient mask use")
has now reached into a care center...

Seems a singer-infected restaurant guest infected a family member, who works at the care center.
(275 cases now)
facebook.com/covid19korea/p… ImageImage
#Germany will have it´s #Lockdown.
Start: December 16
End: January 10 (as of now)

Schools, kindergartens will close
Mandatory rapid (antigen) tests for personnel in nursing homes
Yes, most shops will close. But many stay open: food, drinks, Xmas-trees,...
bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/… Image
Actually, the list of shops to stay open in #Germany´s #Lockdown is quite long.
But beware: it COULD be possible your supermarket will not be allowed to sell "non-food" items (like toys, etc.)!
🚧🎁🚧🥺
Just saying.
(this might lead to absurd scenes, like it did in France...) Image
During the hard #Lockdown phase in #France, supermarkets had to cordon off "non-alimentary" goods.

The reason wasn´t that those goods were ´dangerous´.
It was an thought of as an act of "fairness" to those toy/ book/ etc. shops who had to close entirely.
South #Germany´s city of #Tübingen has used regular antigen tests for nursing home personnel since ~September. (Will come nationwide, now)

They claim this has prevented infections of elderly (while neighboring towns saw deadly nursing home outbreaks).
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Tübingen is focused on the "elderly risk group".

This went as far as saying:
"~We want schools to stay open.
This means kids will inevitably get infected.
But as far as we know, they will cope with it"

(this philosophy shows in today´s case numbers🙄)
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/28… Image
Jeetje !😯

Daily #COVID19 case numbers are back to ~10.000, in the #Netherlands !

They had a daily incidence of 23.2 (Dec 1st).
It´s at 57, today (it doubled ~10 days!).

(ICU occupation doesn´t fall any more, but sees slight rise as well).
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
It seems the #Netherlands are deeply worried and contemplate stricter measures (especially closing shops).

That´s not so much because of the resurging NL case numbers.

The big worry is:
Germany´s #Lockdown might drive masses to NL for X-mas shopping...
gelderlander.nl/nijmegen/bruls…
Shopping areas in the #Netherlands have been crowded again, today.

So #Rotterdam applied several measures:
- one way pedestrian traffic
- temporarily no stepping off from trams in the city´s centre
AND:
A congestion-app for pedestrians !!!
app.spotrotterdam.nl Image
In Japan (the land of capsule hotels), an office space provider registred a surging demand for remote working places.

So they brought out capsule offices.

Featuring:
-recirculating aircons
-a communal space to have a drink with your colleagues

Aaargh!🙄
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
You know a crisis is bad,
when you don´t even receive bad numbers anymore...

(Medical staff in Hokkaido is too busy with treating patients to enter data,
even data-input reinforcement sent from other regions is put on other duties)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
😂😅😥😞
In less than 48 hours "non-essential" shops all over Germany will close for ~1 month #Lockdown.

Politicians now appeal to shop-owners to keep shops open around the clock "until the last minute",
so people can shop Xmas presents without chaos...
t-online.de/nachrichten/pa…
Due to surging numbers (and fear of massive influx of german shoppers) the #Netherlands will also close all "non-essential" shops.

Start: tonight (midnight)!

(That's turning tables - now dutch shoppers will (potentially) rush to german shops, tomorrow)
#Belgium´s leading virologist calls on shoppers from the Netherlands "don´t come to us!"

This belgian website enjoys adding some "tit for tat" - they didn´t forget how Belgians weren´t welcome in some dutch cities, when shops in Belgium had been closed...
7sur7.be/belgique/van-g…
😡
#Germany´s Ministry of Health:

~>
Hey, seniors - you thought there´d be no reason to join the shopping chaos before #Lockdown?

Think again!
We will start GIVING AWAY FREE FFP2 masks !!!!

Starting TOMORROW at your local pharmacy.
Come and join !
<~💢
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/service/gesetz… Image
Yes,
y´all need cheap clothes and cordless power drills...
🙄 Image
Santa Claus visited a nursing home in #Belgium.
He was a #Superspreader.

~60 elderly residents
~14 staff
have been found infected, so far.

He was wearing a mask.
But you know, he has a massive beard,
causing the mask to leak... (suspected outbreak cause)
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020…
Germany's "most important" hospital, Berlin's Charité,
is evaluating a larger transfer of non-COVID patients.
They would be transferred to other clinics, as far as 400 km away, to allow Charité to be dedicated to more #COVID19 patients.
#CloverleafProtocol
amp.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/uni-kli…
This looks drastic:
The extreme east areas of #Germany suffer #COVID19 incidences above ~600.

One district´s ICU capacity (combined of 6 hospitals) is 179 beds.
150 of them are occupied by COVID ICU-patients.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/3a1… Image
One of the points that are said to have caused the immediate #Lockdown of the #Netherlands:

The test results were worrying.

Positivity rate had risen within a week.
And asymptomatic contacts had ~the same positivity as those with symptoms !
rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/rap… Image
Another worrying fact, leading to NL #Lockdown:

People didn´t seem to care anymore.
The green line shows "shopping movements".
By the end of November this had surged to ~2 times the movements of March.
(To the very end you can see the #BlackFriday peak) Image
Looks confusing.
But follow the green line.

It shows ICU admissions would surge to higher levels than in the 2nd wave
within ~2 weeks, if nothing would change.

Thus: immediate #Lockdown in the #Netherlands was decided. Image
#Switzerland's advisory #COVID19 Science Task Force calls for
comprehensive
nationwide
swift measures

"There's no time to try out measures of unknown efficacy"

They're calling for a national
#Lockdown. Now.
New #COVID19 cases climb to record high in South Korea.
Fatalities follow suit...

(test positivity rate is at 2.27%, but rising)
Image
South Korea's number of serious/critically ill #COVID19 cases jumped up ~10% (to 226) in a day...
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
South Korea's still tries to focus on:
✔securing more hospital beds
✔finding asymptomatic "hidden spreaders,"
❌instead of adopting Level 3 restrictions,
since tougher restrictions would cause economic damage.

(there's no X-mas/new year break, there!)
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Remember "Dry Ice" is frozen CO2🤔
Those transport boxes are not gastight (for a reason).

You may want to have a CO2-meter at hand and proper ventilation (as you all do anyway✅)

And maybe not transport/store them in the back of your car... 🙄🌬️☠️
You know,
that "death by Dry Ice, transported in your car" story ain´t kidding.

It happened 7 years ago, to a well known cook in Germany...
(Yes, those containers were even less sealed.
So his ride ended after only 200 m...)
#COVID19 #Vaccine
faz.net/aktuell/rhein-…
#Japan had proclaimed a
"3 week battle to lower #COVID19 numbers".

This "battle" period has ended today.

The summary:
"It didn´t get much worse, so it must have helped..."
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
In fact, #Japan has finished its "3 week battle against #COVID19 numbers" with new record numbers.

Not only in #Tokyo, but also in Kanagawa, Aichi, Kyoto...
"the spread of infections continues to be unstoppable"
😟
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
Worrying rumours from one hospital in #Germany´s extreme eastern district of Görlitz (Saxony)

It´s not sure what´s going on.
Are they "performing triage" on patients?
are they just "calling for help"?
are they just "overworked"?
are they "fearmongering"?
mdr.de/sachsen/bautze…
We don´t really know, what´s going on in #Germany´s Görlitz district (Saxony).
We don´t even really know what´s going on in the entire state of #Saxony.

They couldn´t manage to send updates to the national #COVID19 database...
(2 days ago - still influencing statistics, today) Image
Still, data crowdsourced by @risklayer (directly from local authorities) shows the situation in Saxony.

"Black" indicates a local 7-day incidence above 500 (up to ~680, right now).
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
Not a rumour. It´s an official note.
(Mayor of Zittau, Görlitz district):

"We need urgent support to evacuate patients to other places.
Regional capacities are exhausted."

Incidence: just above 700, this noon.
Testing capacity overrun.
Surmortality: 25%
zittau.de/de/node/288959 Image
What Zittau´s mayor calls for is
activation of "Operation #Cloverleaf".

Germany´s central ICU coordinator #DIVI just confirmed:
Other regions can provide free beds
Interregional transfers of patients would be coordinated

"No need for triage right now."
divi.de/presse/pressem… Image
The #COVID19 situation in South Korea is
"prompting health authorities to seriously consider adopting the toughest virus curbs."
Just like it did yesterday.
(the current level of measures had been issued 9 days ago.
Maybe they hope effect will set in soon)
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
22 #COVID19 Fatalities in South Korea, today.

13 yesterday (was a record).

8 was the average of last two weeks.
Image
Oh, sh*t !

SARS-CoV-2 traces in a city's wastewater are used as an early warning system for upcoming waves of #COVID19 infections.

In Gothenburg (#Sweden's 2nd largest city), those markers "exploded".
They have increased 100-fold in one week!

omni.se/explosionsarta…
A week ago, Sahlgrenska hospital in #Gothenburg already asked everyone to avoid injuring themselves.

They suggested:
"-don't use your car
--don't go hiking in the mountains"

(They already experienced an increase in patients and more staff getting sick.)

omni.se/svart-lage-pa-…
The city of Hanau (#Germany) had installed a temporary freezer in their cemetery, back in April (during 1st #COVID19 wave).

2 days ago, all morgues in the city were at capacity limit.
The freezer is now used for the first time
(housing 2,
23 places left)
Still high case numbers, but
still no tougher measures in South Korea.

"We need to gather sufficient public consensus, as #Level3 (limiting assemblies to 10, closing schools & shops) would be meaningless without the public's participation"

m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Another state of #Germany has requested activation of "Operation #Cloverleaf".
Today, 51 patients from Brandenburg (mild #COVID19 cases) will be transferred to Berlin.

Brandenburg urgently needs space for more patients.
rbb24.de/politik/thema/…
In Berlin, directorate of Charité clinic has communicated their sorrow the "#Cloverleaf" concept might soon stop working, as hospitals all over Germany will start to fill up.

They prepare to release as many patients as possible right now, to make room...
rbb24.de/politik/thema/… Image
In the wake of surging patient numbers, Baden-Württemberg in southwest #Germany has started to distribute #COVID19 ICU patients evenly across the state.

Today, 4 ICU patients from Heidelberg were transferred to Stuttgart and Ulm,
by Intensive-Care-Bus🚍
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Due to foggy conditions, ICU transfers could not be done by helicopter.
So Red Cross Ulm dispatched their new Intensive-Care-Bus (said to be "world´s largest ICU on wheels").

Capacity: 4 fully supplied IC patients on ventilators + medical personnel.
Strong words for new measures in #Sweden:
"If shopping centres, stores and fitness gyms ignored the (new) maximum limit on people allowed in, then they would be closed down."

And, for the first time, facemasks are recommended(!) in public transport.
ft.com/content/71d67d…
While #Sweden´s government announced new harsh measures to try and get #COVID19 numbers under control,
FHM (Sweden´s Health Authority) announced something else:

"Due to the holidays, we will only report numbers on 7 days in the coming 3 weeks. And they won´t make much sense"🙄😡 Image
So after 3 weeks opening up again, #Austria will go back into #Lockdown for 3 weeks...

This will start on Dec 24 (but only after re-opening ski resorts and enjoying Xmas parties with relieved restrictions...🤷)

A lot of confusing stuff, for now...🤔
orf.at/stories/319425…
"Six patients have died of #COVID19 while waiting for a place at a hospital"

vs. ongoing business as usual:

"Near 5-fold increase of infections at religious facilities"
"Ski resort caused chain infection"
"Offices hit particularly hard"
🤷 (South Korea)
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Sweden´s leading epidemiologist argues:

"There´s still no scientific proof that masks would help - but with the current high spread of infections and heavy burden on healthcare,
we have to try everything we can"

😷✅
#UK:
"New variant 'really worrying'🤔
Government advisers "consider the new strain can spread more quickly".

A (new) fourth tier of coronavirus restrictions is expected to be introduced in London and south-east England...
bbc.com/news/uk-553767…
"Up to 70% more transmissible..."
(raw results on the new virus variant in South/East England)
Image
As the new variant still seems to be regionally confined (to London & south-east England), the aim is to keep it there as long as possible...

Essentially, that means: if you´re there, you´re expected to stay there:
The announcement of harsh measures to confine the outbreak of a new #COVID19 strain to south-east #England might also cause a reaction from #France.

The Eurotunnel is linking England´s outbreak area directly to Calais (and the rest of Europe)...
Problems at Eurotunnel were already huge, these days
(Not because of #COVID19, yet...)
Another convenient way to travel from #London to
Paris
Brussels
Amsterdam

🚄The EuroStar highspeed train.
It will keep operating, as they say,
even with London being "Tier4", due to find of the new variant strain of #COVID19.
As the #EuroStar website says:
France &
Belgium do not require passengers from the UK to quarantine
(for now.
Belgium was planning to change that anyway, soon...)
eurostar.com/uk-en/travel-i…
As for the Netherlands' quarantine:
they have a vast list of exemptions from quarantine.

(and: everyone in quarantine may "briefly go shopping")...
😕
government.nl/topics/coronav…
Ooops...

The #Netherlands just announced that they already had found one case with the new strain of #COVID19 (in early December).

And: from 06 a.m. this (sunday) morning, all passenger-flights from #UK will be refused.
nos.nl/artikel/236134…
Uk->NL:
Only flights are halted, so far.
NL government is ..."considering additional measures regarding other modes of transport.
Over the next few days, with other EU states, NL will explore the scope for further limiting the risk of the new strain of the virus being brought over from the UK."
government.nl/latest/news/20…
Yes,
the government of the #Netherlands states that the new strain of #COVID19

"is also harder to detect"

both, in dutch and english announcements.

(*IF* that would mean, tests couldn´t show it, that would be worrisome - but maybe it´s something else.)
government.nl/latest/news/20… Image
The House of Representatives in the #Netherlands was just informed by the Ministry of Health.

Looks like it is complicated to say *which strain* SARS-CoV-2 would be in a sample.
(But that doesn´t mean it´s difficult to detect that some strain is there)
rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/kam… Image
🤔
🙄
😄
😂
🤣"Of course. It’s the police’s responsibility..."
🥴
"New virus strain already in every part of Wales"

makes the idea of using police to stop individuals from packing their car and leaving London sound somewhat ´disproportionate´...
bbc.com/news/uk-wales-…
The flight bans look like a swift solution...
(but remember: NL has already confirmed they had one case of the new #COVID19 strain in their country ~2-3 weeks ago).
And there´s also ferries, the Eurotunnel,...

(Might be we´re too late, again).
Passenger traffic (flights, Eurostar trains) from UK will be banned to enter #Belgium from tonight (midnight).
Quarantine for those who arrive today.

The ban is only for 24 hours, so far.
(Also: talks with France to control roads from Calais to Belgium)
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020… Image
The article from Belgium also states, the new SARS-CoV-2 strain had also been discovered ealier:

in Belgium
in Denmark
in Australia
(only a few cases,
not that massive spread as it is found in England, right now)
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020… Image
#Italy now:
"As a government we have the duty to protect Italians. For this reason, after having notified the English government, we are about to sign the order to suspend flights with Great Britain."
#ECDC has just published a first Threat Assessment of the new #SARSCoV2 strain.

🔎"Ongoing circulation of this variant outside of the UK cannot be excluded"

(because other countries don´t do genetic analyzing as much as UK, we might just not know it...)
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
UK´s raw version of the new #SARSCoV2 strain´s Threat Assessment:

"R increased between 0.39 and 0.93"😧
(so ~0.4 was *optimistic*)

"can be challenging to sequence" (aha!), so spread may be underestimated.

"Antigenic escape"...
oh.🙄
"Antigenic escape"
So that´s why ECDC has this chapter in their Threat Assessment.

They want to keep an eye on
-reinfections
-treatment failures with antibodies
-vaccine failure

which would indicate that old strain immunity doesn´t help against the new!
ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/… Image
They´re not going on holidays.
Look at the amount of luggage.
It is an exodus.
#Germany´s ban on flights from #UK
comes into force tonight (midnight).
🛬🛑
Soon, there will be restrictions to ALL forms of travel from UK (and South Africa).

(maybe tests and quarantine? Not sure yet.
It will be decided tomorrow...)
Image
Link to Germany´s UK flight ban (full document, in german)
on this site:
bmvi.de/SharedDocs/DE/…
#France announces a TOTAL travel ban for passengers coming from the #UK.
Starting tonight at midnight.
🛑🛬🚄🚙🛳️🛑
They emphasize that this is a TEMPORARY measure.
(for 48h, so far)
NOTE: All the other travel bans UK->EU are temporary, too.
That 48 hours of total travel ban will be used to elaborate a coordinated response of all EU members.

(Travel UK->EU might be possible again,
conditions apply...)
Yes,
looks like a negative PCR test might be necessary to enter #France from the #UK.

(NOTE: there´s some hint that this might only apply to french nationals.🤔
Sounds weird, but they suggested this earlier for french ski-tourists, returning from CH, too)
IPCR: "integrated political crisis response"
All affected EU member states, relevant institutions will start their meeting on the "New Virus Strain in the UK & travel (and Brexit?)" tomorrow, 11 a.m.
#Italy has detected its first carrier of the new virus strain.
A passenger who arrived from the #UK, a few days ago.
He came by plane, landed in Rome´s Fiumicino airport.

He´s in quarantine at the moment.
Italy is now rolling out mandatory tests for everyone who has been to UK in the last 14 days...
Tonight, #France has published a clarifying announcement:

▫️Travel from #UK is expected to resume December 22.

▫️Then, a negative PCR test will have to be provided upon DEPARTURE

There´s some "privilege" for french nationals
(what ever that means...)
uk.ambafrance.org/All-travel-fro… Image
"Privilege" in #Germany, Berlin-style
(when the last flights from UK arrived, the passengers were ´triaged´...
Some were ´qualified´ to leave without a test, go home by train and have their test arranged later...🙄)
#Germany, again: No privilege at Hannover airport

All passengers of #UK flight isolated in terminal building.
Emergency services hastily prepared a mass PCR testing station.
Everyone needs to stay, until test results are in (that´ll take hours)...
The Netherlands with strictly no privilege

ALL passenger transport from UK is banned until January 1st.
Stranded dutch nationals are advised to look for accomodation in UK - there will be no way home.
(Except for lorry drivers. Goods traffic not affected)
rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws… Image
British Transport Minister´s warning tonight:
Do not travel to Kent in hope to get to France...
"Operation Stack":
All lorries are ordered to park on the motorway.
The cargo traffic on the UK side is piled up to a length of 25 miles, at the moment.
(that´s ~40 km of trucks)
The new strain of #SARSCoV2 has made its way from #UK to #Australia, now.
Authorities stress out, that the current outbreak in Sydney is NOT related to this new strain.
abc.net.au/news/2020-12-2…
Everyone in #NSW is now being asked to wear a mask.
And get tested & isolate, if even the slightest symptoms of possible #COVID19 occur...
#Germany´s state of North Rhine-Westphalia (#NRW) issued a ´Test & Quarantine´ ordonance for travellers from UK and South Africa, tonight.

It applies to those who arrived in the past 10 days.
(AND: it can be seen as a draft of HOW TRAVEL CAN RESUME SOON).
land.nrw/de/pressemitte… Image
The new #UK / #ZA travel ordonance in Germany´s #NRW sounds practical:
1.) PCR Test presented or done at arrival
2.) quarantine at home (10 days)
3.) a 2nd PCR test after 5 days (if it says "negative", you´re cleared and free)

😏there´s a story to that...
mags.nrw/sites/default/… Image
Those "new" ´Test & Quarantine´ rules in #NRW had been in force before,
until - exactly 1 month ago - one eager traveller complained and caused courts to dump the whole system.😡

Since then, the paperwork still existed, but enforcement was suspended.

(Screenshot of 2020-11-20:) Image
Remember those #UK - #Germany flight passengers who were held isolated in the terminal building at Hannover airport until their test results came in?

Test results are here:
One is #COVID19 "positive"...
🙄
hannover.de/Leben-in-der-R… Image
#Switzerland has a very simple "test"
for travellers from UK and South Africa:
A look at your passport!🛂

Swiss passport: you´re welcome to quarantine at home🇨🇭

Foreign passport: entry denied.🤷

(🤔no fancy PCR testing or such stuff...)
The #Netherlands decided to resume helicopter transfers of some #COVID19 patients to #Germany.

It´s been ~2 months, since the last such transfer.

Now, intensive care occupancy is slowly running high in NL. Staff is getting more and more exhausted...
Updated numbers of infected passengers:

Of those on last flights #UK-#Germany,
this night
at least 12 were now found #COVID19 "positive"

Hamburg: 7 passengers
Frankfurt: 4
Hannover 1
(so far...
Unclear if any are infected with the new variant of Virus)
n-tv.de/panorama/Mehre…
It took a while, but now #Sweden also bans entry from the #UK.
And while they´re at it, they also ban entry from #Denmark, for a month.

Reason: malls in Denmark are closed and shoppers would flock to Sweden instead (and bring the new virus variant, maybe)
dr.dk/nyheder/udland…
Now
other regions of #UK start quarantining guests/travellers who managed to get out of #Tier4 areas/Wales (where the new Virus strain is believed to spread heavily)...
Director of Public Health:
“The new strain of Covid, which is increasingly rapidly in Tier 4 areas, is extremely worrying.
It is incredibly infectious and if you come in to contact with someone with this strain you are far more likely to catch it than the original strain."
🙄 Image
Herefordshire is one of a few regions in #UK with quite low #COVID19 rates.
That means: pubs are open.

Police had to turn away hundreds of non-local visitors (from up to 200 miles away), this weekend
westmercia.police.uk/news/west-merc…
Update on the spread of the new #SARSCoV2 variant:

Besides UK, infections have been found in:
Australia,
Iceland,
Italy,
Netherlands,
Denmark

(according to a #WHO announcement this afternoon)
The new #SARSCoV2 variant was found in
"Single cases in Australia, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands

whereas
Denmark had found ~10 cases"
Image
No progress in resuming travel & transport through the Eurotunnel.

#France insists on test for every truck driver.

#UK says tests would be impossible and unnecessary,
as lorry drivers would practically be isolated in their cabins, with low infection risk
Truck driver's reality, travelling through Eurotunnel:

All drivers must leave the trucks and take seat in a "club car" (fire safety reasons)
Drivers are transported by bus from/to their trucks

That lasts ~2 hours

Testing might be a good idea, I suppose.
That was the first time, mass tests on asymptomatic public were performed in UK.
They used rapid (antigen) tests, roughly meaning only those who were currently able to infect others had a "positive" result.

They found this would apply to ~2% of the tested
IF investigations would show the new variant is more adapted to children, this
▫️"could alter the role children, and schools, play in spreading the virus."
▫️"might explain a significant proportion... of the transmission increase seen"
bbc.com/news/uk-554069…
Still no move.
France still insists, all truck drivers must have a #COVD19 test.

Some movement:
the trucks are now being moved from the motorway to a dedicated parking lot.

In fact it´s Manston Airport.
The tarmac is used for parking up to 4.000 trucks.
kentlive.news/news/kent-news…
The reqeuest for #COVID19 tests is not only for truck drivers.
Even french nationals who wish to return to #France from #UK would need to present a negative PCR test.
(French Minister for EU affairs made that clear, yesterday):
Fun fact:
▶️there is already a drive-through #COVID19 PCR testing site at Manston Airport (stacking site for all the stranded trucks)...

It was installed in July and has been in daily operation, since then.
(Obviously it´s meant for cars, not trucks...)
theisleofthanetnews.com/2020/07/06/cov…
It seems some progress is being made...
"Lateral flow tests" being rapid (antigen) tests.

Not perfect,
and still nothing but rumours.
#UK #France #COVID19
So here´s the EU move:
(Rapid antigen) tests for truck drivers are okay, as long as that doesn´t lead to disruptions of transport.

🤔With some effort, this should be doable...
(Tests while waiting for onboarding, etc)
#EU #UK #COVID19
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
Switzerland,
polite😇
and bold😠 Image
Well,
so Germany´s state of #Saxony is regarded as a high-risk area.
Even by #Switzerland´s standards!
😣
bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/kr… Image
Meanwhile at #UK Manston Airport,
the huge parking lot where thousands of trucks wait for #EU borders to reopen.

(If you think it´s a quiet evening there, you forgot to
TURN ON YOUR SPEAKERS🔊
#COVID19
Now, the #UK Road Haulage Association shows they care:

They don´t like #COVID19 tests for several reasons.

One being:
"😢A driver with a positive test, where will he go?
He will be unable to quarantine with his family in #Europe..."

🙄Lovely thought
rha.uk.net/news/press-rel… Image
On the other hand...

an update from Dortmund, #Germany.

´Test results for passengers of last flights from #London to Dortmund are in.
6 of them were #COVID19 "positive".´

Oh, yes - they will be allowed to quarantine with / infect their families...😩
I can totally imagine,
telling one of these truck drivers
"Er, sorry chap - your #COVID19 test is positive... you need to stay 10 days in your cabin"
is not deemed a smart thing by most of them.
#UK #EU
News from France:

"Travel #UK - #France will resume tomorrow.
A #COVID19 test (PCR or rapid test) will be required."

Applicable to:
▫️French and European nationals
▫️British and third-country nationals who are permanent residents
(no details, yet)
French Transport Minister:
planes, ships and Eurostar train are going back into service #UK - #France tomorrow morning.
Those with "legitimate reasons" will be allowed to travel, too.
(Of course: with a negative #COVID19 test.)
The #UK NHS #COVID19 testing team has arrived in Dover.
They will need some healthy sleep.
There´s a lot to do, tomorrow...
🧑‍⚕️🛻🚚🚛🚚🚛🛻🚛🚚🚛🛻🚛🚛
Special mention:
The Sikhs in Kent have been up to help since this morning!
Preparing and providing ~800 hot meals. Choice of pasta or curry/rice.😋
As well as other volunteers, salvation army, fire service did their best...
Today, 2 cases of infection with the new #SARSCoV2 strain have been reported from the #Netherlands.

They are both in Amsterdam region, but don´t seem to be connected.
One has been to #UK.
The other wasn´t .
nos.nl/artikel/236165…
In the late evening,
rules for resumption of passenger traffic #UK - #France were published.

Not everyone is allowed to travel,
but everyone who is allowed, must present a negative #COVID19 test.

uk.ambafrance.org/France-to-admi…
#France will accept some rapid (antigen) tests / (Lateral Flow Tests).

"In the absence of PCR tests, antigen tests sensitive to the VUI-2020-12-01 test will be authorized; see the list of these below."
uk.ambafrance.org/Antigen-tests-…
While passengers would need to provide their own negative #COVID19 test results (therefore could start earlier),
The tests for the stuck lorry drivers will be provided by authorities (therefore travel resumed at 7 a.m.)
#UK Port of Dover says to have restarted operations for both, passengers & freight shortly before midnight.

(provided anyone could present a negative #COVID19 test)...

doverport.co.uk/about/news/por… Image
Provided, you have a test result ...
Not much is moving, though...
On the move, though:
the new #SARSCoV2 variant is said to have been detected in further #UK regions...
Yesterday, #Belgium announced that ~3 weeks ago, they had found four #COVID19 cases, infected with the new "UK" variant.

It´s a family of 4.
They didn´t get infected via UK,
but one family member had been to Zeeland (#Netherlands), where he was infected".
hln.be/binnenland/van…
Interestingly, #Belgium´s test positivity rate keeps declining.
Even after the first cases of new "UK" #SARSCoV2 variant had been detected (early december).

Seems, just the presence of this new strain doesn´t say much...
hln.be/binnenland/ove… Image
The latest guess is ~10.000 trucks (drivers) need to be tested.
(~2% would be #COVID19 "positive", if we´d take latest mass testing of population in #Kent as a guideline).

Not to mention those in the minivans, discovering a co-passenger was "positive"...
Dover ferry service DFDS confirmed it had the capacity to carry 4,000 freight vehicles by Christmas Day...
(there are ~10.000 waiting right now)
The military will help with the tests...
The military is said to go and test the drivers stuck on the motorway M20.
For those at Manston airport, tests are said to finally begin... soon.
That´s chaotic (I)
Port of Dover is sending everyone to Manston Airport (which is ful), to get tested there.
This has provoked a bit of disconcent among drivers already waiting at the Port of Dover...
That´s chaotic (II)
So if some drivers had followed the appeal to leave their spot at Port of Dover to head for Manston Airport and queue up for a test...

that discontent might have grown, now.
The test centre at Port of Dover is not there, yet.
It´s a plan.

If it is installed ...
"it will be many hours, into days, just to get rid of what we see just around the Dover area".
Every mooring at the Port of Dover has a ferry waiting to bring cargo & passengers to France.
They have been waiting since this morning.

No truck (driver) with a #COVID19 test has made it here...
skylinewebcams.com/de/webcam/unit… Image
Yes, we know.
the new "UK" #SARSCoV2 variant,...
Oh.
ANOTHER new (South Africa) variant has reached UK.
"This virus is yet more transmissible and appears to have mutated further than the new virus.

Anyone who has been in South Africa in the past fortnight and close contacts must quarantine immediately!"
bbc.com/news/live/worl… Image
The South Africa variant has (so far) only been found in 2 cases in the UK.
That´s not the one causing the surge, for the moment.
Nice move!
Some bits of official information on #COVID19 testing for border crossings #UK to #France are now available in foreign languages!
(They don´t have all the information like where you can get the test,
but it´s a start...)
I think it´s getting really screwed up now...

(Ferries from #France cannot unload at #Dover,
as the entire port, city, region is blocked.

So they have to wait at sea or return to France, with passengers and cargo)
🛳️🔄 Image
🚛20
🚐50
So far.
In a day.
(Eurotunnel
#UK->#France)

Strong commitment, detailed facts research, a bit of authentic compassion...
telling the story, not boosting a headline.
I´d say they have a very good journalist, there.
There are now 3 ferries at once heading out from Calais to Dover...

Thinking about how there were convoys of ships crossing the Channel 80 years ago, 76 years ago...
it comes to my mind how blessed we still are.
(via vesselfinder.com) Image
That´s a ~20km long stretch of motorway, used as additional parking lot.
Actually, it´s that roadside that was left open, while trucks were stacked on the "coast bound" lanes.

It´s completely blocked, now.
This isn´t "Operation Stack/Brock" anymore.
"The ´UK´ #SARSCoV2 variant appears to be unstoppable" in the #Netherlands.

So far, it was only found in 2 cases. Both had no contact with each other, and had not been to UK.
The infections came up 10 days apart, suggesting there might be other carriers.
nos.nl/artikel/236181…
Dover #COVID19 testing
reinforcement/renforcement
arrived from France...
🚒
If ferries sail tomorrow, it will be because of crews and port staff who volunteer to do so.
Normally, ports would be closed for Christmas.

(see planned timetable below,
it´s outdated, for sure)
Image
Thanks to all those,
who make it possible...
@AmbColonna @Arnaudleviking
A polish truck driver passing the test zone in the Port of Dover.

(Don´t get the ironical sign wrong - they are all really p***ed.
"This #COVID19 thing is not a big deal. All this is just about politics" is heard in interviews. And they all blame France.)
Yes, there was a study (pre-) published yesterday.
But
"Schools may need to close to control new #SARSCoV2 variant"
is not what it actually concludes...
bbc.com/news/health-55…
The study on measures against the new ´UK´ #SARSCoV2 strain suggests it would need:
🔹#Tier4 rules England-wide
🔹Schools closed until February
and 🔹*2 million persons vaccinated per week*⚠️

to keep numbers below peak scenarios of earlier waves.
cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19… Image
#Poland´s tweet suggests they will send Polish medical personnel to #UK, to provide #COVID19 tests exclusively for Polish truck drivers.

Let´s see how this will work out... Image
First "official" results of one day #COVID19 testing for truck drivers are in.

(Together with commentary from #UK´s Secretary of Transport, that ~it all would not be worth the hassle~.)

3 / 2367 tested "positive"...
So, what´s the use of rapid tests?

A first case of infection with "#UK´s" #SARSCoV2 variant was found in #Germany, today.
A passenger, who came on one of the last flights from London (sunday, Dec 20).
She recieved a rapid test at the airport: positive...
Due to the "positive" rapid test result, that UK-flight passenger was sent to quarantine,
*picked up by relatives, then a ~2 hour ride to the relatives´ home, where she isolated herself*

Not much more interaction, so "only" 3 contacts, now.
#B117 #Germany
…zialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/pre…
In Poland, a Christmas dinner table will always have an extra plate.🎄🍽️
It is a symbol of hope.
In the darkest times of Poland, families prepared this extra plate in case a member of the family came back from captivity…
🚛
More military from the UK,
to test the truck drivers...
This evening, several planes stated from #Poland.
They will land at London Gatwick, #UK.

One plane carries 16 #COVID19 test teams.
Their mission: testing Polish truck drivers (and those of other ´Visegrad´-countries).
"Capacity: 5.000 tests per day"
Another plane from #Poland brings (even more) rapid antigen tests to #UK,
to be used for testing Polish (and V4) truck drivers.
And Polish military is also preparing to be deployed at testing sites in #UK, as well as catering for Polish truck drivers stuck at the border in Kent.
#Japan´s #COVID19 numbers are still rising.
Today, Tokyo saw a new record of 888 new cases.

One of them is a returnee from #UK...

And one transmission happened, while 2 men sat in a car, just for one lunchbreak....
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
2 UK residents who were tested #COVID19 "positive" in #Switzerland, have now been found to carry the #B117 variant strain.

One is in isolation.
The other one... well, local authorities are "trying to contact them".

🇨🇭🏂
Image
Medical Teams from #Poland have already started testing stranded truck drivers in #Dover.
It is expected that Polish military forces will arrive this morning for additional support.

Polish Consulate clarified they will test drivers of all nationalities.
ALL international travellers to the #Netherlands will need to provide a negative #COVID19 test result.

-rapid tests not accepted!
-a 10 day quarantine is also mandated

-does not apply to local cross-border travel
-and not for freight transport personnel
government.nl/latest/news/20… Image
Changing of the guards...

A new crew of firefighters from #France is now on their way to #Dover to take over #COVID19 testing from their colleagues who went there yesterday.
Apparently, there´s one major difference between french tests and UK-style testing.

Firefighters from #France strictly follow the manufacturer´s guideline.
They take swab samples from the "posterior nasopharynx".
That´s halfway through one´s head...🗣️🔚📏
Rapid tests from #UK crews will strictly be "self administered" (done by the testees themselves, under supervision).
They will not insert the swab deeply (might be risky with layman´s hands😤), but brush the cheeks and the nostrils in front of the nose...
The #UK way of applying rapid (antigen) tests is therefore deviating from manufacturers´ instructions.

"They do not need to be followed",

says a Standard Operation Procedure of UK´s NHS.
england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp… Image
#UK´s medical product authority had issued an
"authorisation for exceptional use"
of these rapid (antigen) / #LFT kits as a
"Self-Test device, to be used by members of the public"
on December 23.
gov.uk/government/new… Image
The medical crews from #Poland also seem to follow the manufacturers´ instructions for rapid (antigen) test kits.

Would be interesting to see if there will be any differences in UK vs. PL/F test result-quota🤔
Japan confirmed, 5 flight passengers who arrived last weekend and tested "positive" do carry infections with the new "UK" variant #B117

They came from UK and had landed in Osaka and Tokyo.
Since their positive test upon arrival, they´d been in quarantine.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
4 other cases in Japan, more worrying:
3 flight passengers from UK. They all tested "negative" upon arrival and went home.
As they later developped symptoms, it was discovered the infection had already spread to a family member.
Not yet clear if it´s #B117
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
New ´official´ numbers from the truck drivers´ tests in UK.
(positivity rate "just" doubled in a day. it was ~0,12%, yesterday)...🤔

(Couldn´t they also be given another self-test kit,
to let them check again, when they arrive at home?
It´s ~5€ !)
The "UK" variant #B117 has now been detected in #Ireland.
"Further testing in the coming days and weeks will establish the extent to which it is present here."

Ireland currently has the fastest growing incidence rate in the EU.
rte.ie/news/coronavir…
Authorities in the #Netherlands already suspected there´d be more than just the 2 cases of the "UK" variant #B117 they had found around Amsterdam.

They were right.
Another case was just found in Rotterdam region...
nos.nl/artikel/236204…
#Belgium #Santa #COVID19 #NursingHome
18 of the seniors have died.

hln.be/mol/al-18-bewo…
A Frenchman, residing in #London
arrived in #France Dec19
went to hospital in Tours Dec21 and got tested (unclear reasons). Result "positive".
Sequencing now showed: #B117

He´s isolated (at home)

Several more suspect cases are currently being sequenced
france24.news/en/2020/12/the… Image
South Korea,
still a typical #COVID19 transmission chain, these days:

Automobile factory employees
⬇️
families
⬇️
restaurant employees
⬇️
restaurant clients

26 cases confirmed, so far.
South Korea sees record #COVID19 case numbers around 1.000 since 2 weeks.

They are still hesitating to implement tougher measures, as they would have economic consequences.

(meanwhile: massive clusters in nursing homes, hospitals, detention center,...)
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
An airline pilot in #Japan has just been confirmed to carry the "UK" virus variant #B117.
He had been to #UK.

At home in Japan, his wife has also been found #COVID19 "positive".
Sequencing is done to see if she is also infected with the new variant.
It looks as if the #B117 infected pilot in Tokyo is one of the cases who were asymptomatic (and thus untested) upon arrival in Japan.
He arrived on Dec16, went home.
Tested positive Dec22,
Another family member (not been to UK) was found positive on Dec24
news.line.me/articles/oa-rp…
a little Update:
"UK" variant in JP
It has been confirmed that the #B117 infection of an airline pilot had been transmitted to one of his family members, back home in #Japan.

(after his return from UK, his infection went unnoticed for ~6 days, Dec16 - 22)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
The case history
(Ministry of Health, #Japan):

Pilot returned home to Tokyo from #UK, December16🟢
Felt mild symptoms Dec21🔵

Family member felt symptoms Dec23🟡

Both in hospital (for managed isolation) since Dec24
Confirmation: both carry #B117, Dec26
mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_15… Image
UK: #Manston airport truck holding area now cleared. Quite some trucks still stacked on the motorway #M20, waiting to cross the border to France with a #COVID19 rapid test...
#M20
Done.
(although there are still red markers on the map, indicating there´d be heavy traffic. Everyone´s gone).
trafficcameras.uk/map/ Image
#UK #France #Border #Truckdrivers
And the "officially commented by traffic secretary" test results are in:
15.526 tests
36 positive
(0,23%)

(rapid antigen test,
positive results still need to be verified by PCR apparently)
As countries over the world start discovering imported "UK" variant infections, #Japan closes its borders🛑

From monday on,
all foreigners are banned from entering the country.

Nationals and residents may return with a negative test result & quarantine.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
#Sweden has also found one person infected with #B117.

A traveller from #UK went to see his family in Sweden.
He arrived Dec20 and began to feel symptoms.
He performed a #COVID19 self-test: "Positive".

The family was tested, too - all negative, so far...
All authorities say the risk that #B117 would spread from the first case in #Sweden was VERY low.
"He behaved exemplary, even before he felt symptoms".

(He came from UK in a big car.
All the time wearing masks and vizors.
And the windows down...🚙🌬️🥶)
regionsormland.se/nyheter/nyhets…
Sorry, could anyone correct me if I´m wrong...?

The story that #Sweden´s first #B117 case came by car with windows down, from #UK, was found here🔎:
svt.se/nyheter/lokalt… Image
#Spain announces 4 cases of infections with the "UK" Variant #B117 in Madrid.

One is a flight passenger who arrived from UK on Dec20.

(and then it gets a bit confusing...)
One young man arrived by plane from UK in Madrid, mid last week.
His rapid antigen test upon arrival was "positive".

Apparently he was sent to isolate at home🤷

...now, cases 2,3&4 are his family in Madrid.
They showed symptoms this week.
#B117 in #Spain
vozpopuli.com/espana/coronav…
#Madrid´s Vice Counselor for Health (and pandemic planning) tweeted about the 4 cases of #B117
something like:

"~It´s not that bad. Don´t panic~"
😎 Image
#Switzerland´s authorities are in holiday mode.
So there´s no official statement yet, just an article:

now, there are 3 cases of #B117 in CH.
All are visitors from UK.

Contacts are checked.
"In this special case even contacts of contacts are traced..."
nau.ch/news/schweiz/b…
Oh, #Canada!
"The confirmed (#B117) cases identified are from a couple from Durham Region with
NO known travel history, exposure or high-risk contacts.
😕
Durham Region is east of Toronto."
cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
When #B117 is not a big deal - Australia-style:

"Since March, all international travelers arriving in #Australia have been required to undergo government mandated 14 day #Quarantine"
adelaidenow.com.au/coronavirus/uk…
When #B117 is no big deal - #Sweden-style:

"Unaware" of the entry ban, one flight from London still landed in Stockholm

No authorities made contact with the 29 passengers.
"Self-Test & Self-isolation responsibility lies with the travellers themselves"
🥳
aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/JJ6x…
Yep,
#Sweden´s approach to #COVID19 is very much 🥳

After his forces were "totally surprised" by flight passengers arriving from UK,
Sweden´s Head of National Border Police tweeted this...
😕
(although I´d agree that the word "Mutantvirus" is silly, too)
Image
#Sweden´s Head of Border Police is much more🕵️‍♂️in saying:
"Swedish citizens always have the right to enter the country."
(They still can do it by car...)
Quarantine is at home, not at the border.
And the standard protocol asks them to covid-test themselves.
tt.omni.se/brittiskt-flyg…
A serious approach on #B117:

When last flights from UK arrived a week ago, Italy´s #Campania region tested all passengers...

7 out of 245 passengers turned out to be #COVID19 "positive".
They then started *testing all UK arrivals* since 14 days before...
napoli.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/1…
...samples of those who tested "positive" in the large ´UK arrival backwards screening´ were then sent to #TIGEM institute for sequencing.

Results are out now...
6 of them carried the #B117 variant.
#TIGEM didn´t sequence only UK travllers, but also other positive cases in the region.

They created a "map" of the different occuring virus variants in #Campania *at that moment*

Out of 115 positive #COVID19 cases,
six (5.2%) carried the #B117 variant.
corrieredelmezzogiorno.corriere.it/napoli/cronaca… Image
(Note: break of quarantine costs 10.000 CHF🇨🇭)

"200 Brits disappear overnight"
after #Switzerland had ordered them to quarantine at their hotels.

"Some reported they´d be in #France, now..."

This will get nasty, soon...🤦
(if all of this is true)
20min.ch/story/200-brit…
A text message from #Switzerland´s authorities had informed #UK travellers of their obligation to quarantine for 10 days at their hotel.

Identity and contact data of all (also all escaped) travellers is known to swiss authorities...
🤷🤦
orf.at/stories/319516…
Local🇨🇭authorities tried to arrange flights back home for #UK Tourists,
but when it turned out the passengers needed to prove completed quarantine, the guests declined.

Some CH locals now mistake resident Brits for tourists and start harassing them...
🤦
grenchnertagblatt.ch/schweiz/hunder…
#Switzerland,
Regional president of Valais:

"I suppose they´ll be in London now, in quarantine"
"You can´t control every single one"

´Of 420 #UK guests who should quarantine in Verbier / Bagnes, only ~a dozen is still there´...
🏃‍♀️🚴‍♂️🏇💨🇨🇭
20min.ch/story/lueckenl…
Regional president of Valais (#Switzerland), in an interview:

"I can´t tell you the numbers. Certainly, some have vanished ...
Federal authorities didn´t hand us over relevant data in time, so we didn´t know who had to quarantine"
#COVID🇨🇭#CHaos
rts.ch/info/regions/v…
Meanwhile, in #London:
🚑Ambulance crews waiting ~6 hours to hand over patients to hospitals.

"The demand is occurring because of the rapid spread of the new variant, predicted to spread further across the rest of the capital in the coming days and weeks"
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Update:
#Canada´s ´mysterious´ first 2 cases of infection with the #B117 variant
seem to have been infected by a traveller from #UK.
theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
The secret of the missing Brits...
#Verbier
"Some have returned by own means,
some have taken a return-flight organised by #UK for their nationals..."
Says president of #Switzerland´s Valais.

(in bad Skype quality, but with subtitles it´s comprehensible)
rts.ch/play/tv/redire… Image
Updates:
#Switzerland detected
3 "UK" variant #B117 carriers, in:
Zurich, Grisons, Liechtenstein

NEW
2 "South Africa" variant #501V2 carriers.
One is in Schwyz.
The other one is currently in .... #France (?!!!)
🤨
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
The "UK" variant #B117 was detected in a family who had returned to South Korea from UK on Dec22 (3 family members).

There are investigations if an earlier #COVID19 case (also returnee from UK, spreading to his family in S Korea) also carried this variant
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
From #Lockdown to #Gridlock.

#Italy has issued a national ~2 week lockdown period during year´s end holidays.
There are only 3 days with open shops (starting today)...

and then it snowed !
🌨️☃️🚗🚙🚕🛺🚌🏎️🚐🛻🚚🚛🚜
google.de/maps/@45.53025… Image
What happens, if a person received an #overdose of Biontech/Pfizer´s COVID #vaccine?🤔

That just happened in #Germany:

8 nurses accidentally received 5 times the prescribed dose (entire bottle in 1 shot!)🙄
-flu-like symptoms
-observation in hospital🤒
ndr.de/nachrichten/me…
The "UK" variant #B117 is here and there and everywhere...

The #Netherlands have found 11 carriers, so far.

Only *one* isolated case in Nijmegen had been to #UK, recently. He has no connection to the other cases...
dagblad010.nl/Rotterdam%20&%…
For 5 of #Netherland´s #B117 infections, a connection could be found:

They are linked to a very unusual, LARGE outbreak at an ELEMENTARY #School (in Rotterdam)
40 infected teachers AND #STUDENTS, there - since end of November.
Mass sequencing has started.
ad.nl/rotterdam/uitb…
Netherland´s #RIVM already did a first screening of 250 earlier #COVID19 cases in Rotterdam region.

They found
´more than 95% of those cases were NOT the "UK" variant´ #B117...

They´ll continue screening with more samples...
rivm.nl/nieuws/verspre… Image
The "UK" variant #B117 has also been detected in #Germany, again.

An elderly man had died from it, end November.
His wife was also infected.
They had not been to UK.

But their daughter had returned from UK mid-November.
rnd.de/gesundheit/mut…
#Denmark is ramping up its search for the "UK" variant #B117 in their country...
(Link to document: ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…)
Image
Based on their mass sample sequencing,
#Denmark states:
- #B117 was found in all regions
- mid November: around Copenhagen
- Since December: North Jutland🤔🐿️
- Signs of community spread, but still at low level

Document:
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…
(Auto-translated version:) Image
Tokyo has so far had ~57.000 #COVID19 cases.
~1 % of them are under treatment for #LongCovid.

of which
97% feel exhausted
86% depression
73% breathing problems
52% hair loss
27% taste disorders

114 of them can´t get out of bed for at least half of week.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
The case of vanishing Brits from #Verbier shows a chaotic picture of #Switzerland:
Local spokesman
"Regional & federal authorities gave them authorisation to leave"
"After all, it´s the federals´ business to manage quarantine"

(🇨🇭Federal authorities deny)
rts.ch/play/tv/19h30/… Image
On December 22 (a day after the mandatory quarantine for all who arrived from #UK since Dec14 came into force)
#Switzerland´s TV did an interview with Brits in #Verbier:

"We have to stay inside. So we´re actually going to go home tomorrow"...
😉
facebook.com/srfnews/videos… Image
Meanwhile,
#UK´s secretary of transport has published new "official" test results and comment for truck drivers, trying to cross the border to #France:
21.849 Tests, "just" 66 of them tested positive (0,3%)

(Note: that´s with rapid antigen tests!)
#UK´s truck driver tests (0,3% positive)
(unfairly) compared to (voluntary) rapid antigen mass testing in #Austria

(0,1%-0,5% positive
~3 weeks ago,
when Austria´s test positivity with PCR tests was ~14%)
de.statista.com/statistik/date… Image
#Switzerland´s National #COVID19 Science Task Force presents a model, how case numbers would behave, if new Virus variants (#B117, #501v2) would kick in.
(Despite current measures...)
Image
#Switzerland (if virus variants would spread)
Case number development with
measures, currently good for R=0.9 (orange)
measures, currently good for R=0.8 (blue)
real R is currently ~0.9 but not reliable (holiday effects)

Dotted line: enhanced Tracing/Testing/Isolation/Quarantine Image
#Verbier
"On Dec21, when a text message from Swisscom went out to travellers and news started to break of the new rules, 🔹#Switzerland´s authorities gave #Brits the option to return home rather than quarantine🔹"

Exactly what Ischgl (AT) did earlier...
wheretoskiandsnowboard.com/blogs/what-rea… Image
#Rotterdam
"Infections started slowly - but when it suddenly started to spread at great speed, we decided to close the #School completely"

"Until then, we hadn´t seen any large #Cluster in elementary schools"

It´s #B117. But still no link to #UK, so far.
rijnmond.nl/nieuws/202560/…
Another case of infection with #B117 in #Germany.

A man from North Rine-Westphalia got infected (and recovered) at the beginning of December.
His infection has no links to #UK.

"He was infected by a colleague from #CzechRepublic ..."
🤨
presse-service.de/data.aspx/stat… Image
#Chile
"On December 22 at 6:35 am, a Chilean passenger arrived on a flight from Madrid and was PCR-tested at the airport. She had spent a week in #London visiting relatives.
Dec23, her test result returned positive..." #B117
(Also took a connecting flight)
Oh, that #B117 infected flight passenger in #Chile...
she got tested at Santiago airport, when arriving from Europe.
And departed on another flight before her (positive) test result arrived.
🙄📜.......🛫
#Rotterdam Health Authority:
(Elementary school & #B117)

"It´s remarkable that so many young children at this school have been infected"

"Until now, we thought children would not take part in spreading #COVID19.
But this might have us change our view..."
nos.nl/artikel/236246… Image
"I was surprised at how quickly everyone became infected. Really everyone who had been around my child tested positive,' says one parent."
(Elementary #School, #B117, #Netherlands)

meanwhile, one teacher passed away.
ad.nl/rotterdam/bove…
"It's spreading rapidly from the places where it's started, in the east of London and in Kent.
And, alas, it's starting to seed across the country."

#B117 #UK
bbc.com/news/uk-554899…
#Singapore has no luck with people bringing #B117 from #UK and slipping it into the country,
despite sophisticated test & quarantine...
BTW,
how are our one-time rapid antigen tested,
quarantine-free truck drivers from #UK doing, today?

Ah! "Just" 0,33% have been found to be acutely infectious, so far.
That´s 96 exported outbreaks stopped.
👍
The #UK / #France border management has been compared to "developping nations´ standards".

That was certainly unjustified...
▫️Cleaning and
▫️New drivers
at the border!
👨‍🔧🔁🧑‍🔧
#Rwanda
seems to be very strict,
to prevent #COVID19 from spreading.
“Rwanda has introduced tough and unrealistic measures to the Industry which will disrupt the entire supply chain and undermine the efficiency, seamlessness and cost-effectiveness of cargo transportation in the Region”
So they settled for... testing.
🇬🇧🤷🇫🇷
theeastafrican.co.ke/news/ea/Tanzan…
"Elementary #School students are spreading infections with this #UK variant (#B117).
That´s not normal. It is something to be worried about..."
😟
Says #Netherlands´ Health Minister.
(More test results from a recent school #Cluster came in, today)
dvhn.nl/extra/Hugo-de-…
#B117
#Ireland

Whithin a week
🔸test positivity went from 5% to 18%
🔸 nearly no delay between surge in cases and hospital admissions (doubled)
🔸R =1.6~1.8

"~This is different from the waves before!~"
⚠
#B117
#Ireland

"Spreading at a rate faster than even the most pessimistic modelling"

irishtimes.com/news/health/le…
Also in China´s archived first "new disease" statement
(2019-12-31)🔎

"The disease is preventable and controllable.

▫️Keep indoor settings ventilated,
▫️Avoid closed public places and crowded places with poor air circulation,
▫️Wear masks when going out"
Image
#China one year later:
#B117
The patient tested "negative" on Dec12
2 days before flying UK->China

"She described running in a park without mask and taking off her mask to eat and drink while waiting to board the plane, which may be when she was infected"
chinadaily.com.cn/a/202012/30/WS… Image
In #Japan,
it would be that time of year, when most companies close.
To let everyone have one of the rare periods to spend with their elderly family in the countryside...

Not this year.
(None of the usual traffic jams and crowded trains.
It´s "Stay Home")
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
The 🇯🇵 #NHK article has info like:
"The infected are in age groups of 10 to 100+ years."
"If this continues, it would lead to an ´infection explosion´..."

But this 🇬🇧version has the voice of the narrator that suggests:
Something is clearly wrong, here.
😧
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Explaining #Ireland´s surging #COVID19 cases (beyond #B117):

"The average number of contacts per case has risen from 2.5 in November to an average in recent days of 6.3"

"The number of cases are so high that we are experiencing delays in reporting them".
#COVID19 #Uncontained
"Testing and tracing is an exercise in containment.
We are no longer in a containment phase."

All close contacts no longer being tested, in #Ireland.
(But restricted movement applies)
"Royal London Hospital says they´re operating in disaster medicine mode. They can no longer provide high-standard critical care"

There were rumours the EXCEL nightingale had been scrapped and there´d be no staff to operate it - so, don´t expext too much.
#London
"The new #Strain and failure of tiers have lead to an unexpected increase in numbers. We are going to have to open more beds"

1 nurse: 3 patients. The ratio has been changed.

"While this is far from ideal, it´s the way things are"
"Every #hospital in North East #London is struggling, some with insufficient oxygen supplies, all with insufficient nursing numbers.

"#Kent is in a similar, if not worse, position."
itv.com/news/2020-12-3…
Pardon

A resident of #France came back from South Africa.
It was only a few days after his return,
(when he felt #COVID19 symptoms)
that he decided to get a PCR test in #Switzerland (?)
And then isolated at home (in France).

Some jolly border crossings🙄
solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/cp_-_3… Image
Confusing:
#France "discovered" their first #COVID19 case with the "South Africa" (#501V2) variant yesterday.
Although #Switzerland´s authorities already reported it 4 days ago...

🤷🇨🇭: People happen to vanish there... and then pop up in other places.
The #COVID19 situation in #Ireland, this morning:

"The pace of the third wave of the virus has taken everyone by surprise".

"It may be necessary to go even beyond the current Level 5 restrictions."
rte.ie/news/2021/0101…
#Ireland´s NPHET had already warned 2 days ago:
The current case curve is resembling the blue / red lines in the graph below📈.
As there is severe underrepporting, the actual situation might be even more serious...
assets.gov.ie/117748/e3b13a2… Image
#France Ille-et-Vilaine prefecture activated its Crisis Operation Center, because of...
a rave party that´s been going on since yesterday.
It went a bit out of hands.

This morning, they counted 2.500 participants, from all across France (and Poland)🔊🕺
The organizers of #France´s large illegal rave don´t understand the fuss.
They complain that no-one takes note of their effort to provide a stand with free masks and hand-sanitizer...
😕 Image
Really no-one takes note of the provided free masks...
Not even the ravers.

Latest update:
the rave is still ongoing.
Presumably "until monday".

Meanwhile, the world is watching #France...
Even The New York Times has reported on #France's #raveparty issue.

But that's just headlines.
The real problems would start, if the region's neighbors got the impression that France is losing control...
(remember France demanded tests for lorry drivers?)
But maybe, one problem is still totally "unreal" for most of the ravers (and most of us):
#B117
"There are 20-30 year olds coming in, with no other underlying conditions. Many don't even realize how sick they are"...

(oxygen deficiency tricks the brain).
Maybe we'd better take the risks of #B117 seriously.

Until now, the saying was "for the future of our #children, #schools need to stay open".

But there's a shift, now:
The future will need healthy children...
The rave party in #France is over.
(And that´s not a #COVID test station, they´re heading to...)
In August ´20, there had been an open-air rave of 10.000 folks in #France.

During evacuation, "2 #COVID19 test centres" were deployed (for voluntary testing)
No results reported. They would have gone under in France´s 2nd wave 2-3 weeks later, anyway...
Today, Regional Health Authorities say they provided ~500 rapid (antigen) tests to the site of #France´s rave party.
They also urge everyone who has been there to isolate 7 days at home and get tested after that.
francebleu.fr/infos/faits-di…
(Remarkable) Details on #Germany´s 1st discovered case of #B117:
That young lady on the last flight from London,
she had already been transferred to a Quarantine Hotel (👍didn´t know we had this)

...and then her father insisted to take her home.
🙄
schwarzwaelder-bote.de/inhalt.corona-…
Meanwhile, in #France:

"A #COVID19 rapid antigen testing center is set up in front of the gymnasium of Lieuron. The participants of the #Raveparty are ´strongly encouraged´ to go there..."
#B117 in #Switzerland:
A schoolboy (9 years) from London.
His school in #UK had been closed, due to #COVID19 cases.
He & his mother had spent 10 day 🇬🇧quarantine, then took a flight to CH (Dec20), 7 day 🇨🇭quarantine.
In CH, mother & son tested "positive".
Image
Suddenly, UK comes up with quite reasonable solutions.

-🚛#COVID19 testing centres along the motorways
-free support for transport companies to establish their own testing centres (🤔what would they do with a "positive" result?)

Interesting to see...!
Image
#UK government is excercising pressure on some counties to reopen #Schools on monday.
No one understands why this must happen, while #COVID19 cases are still surging.

And it seems it is brewing up a fierce storm...
kentonline.co.uk/thanet/news/co… Image
While parents suggest they´d rather not send their kids to #School,
#UK National Education Union advised their members that "it is unsafe to return to work on monday".
Image
The National Association of Headteachers is taking the extraordinary step to take legal action against #UK´s Department of Education...
😯
in order to stop schools from opening on monday.
Image
The first local authority is now bypassing #UK government.

“The Government has left us to make this decision that it is not brave enough to face..."

Primary #Schools close / go remote
#NewZealand has detected 6 cases of the #B117 virus variant, so far.

No worries - all of them were discovered while they were in "Managed Isolation"...

Interestingly, 5 of them came from #UK.
And one came from... South Africa (!)
🤔
health.govt.nz/news-media/med… Image
In #UK, more councils would prefer to keep #schools closed.
This is from #Cumbria, going the official way,
sending good arguments to the government...
#Essex doesn´t wait any longer.
They just declared schools would remain closed.

"This is to allow ECC to clarify the Government position on primary schools..."😯

Image
#Tier4 is in force since Dec19. It´s 2 weeks now.
Usually, it takes ~3 weeks until results show how well measures work.⌛️
So, "in a week or so" might be a good time to see
if Tier 4 would be appropriate for other #UK regions...
(if you´d have that time)
Those Brits from #Verbier, who "disappeared over night" -

That wasn´t a clandestine escape from #Switzerland´s authorities.

It was🇨🇭Switzerland´s plan!

(which somehow wasn´t clear. Maybe it got entangled in typical federal-cantonal dissonance)
🙄👉👈😑
bazl.admin.ch/bazl/en/home/m… Image
#UK Health & Safety regulations give workers the right to ~refrain from unsafe work.
Many teachers are now declaring they won´t come to #School, tomorrow.

(Unions had already stated conditions in schools were "not safe")
"The four English patients are family members -- parents and two children -- from Kent."

#B117 #Thailand
bangkokpost.com/thailand/gener…
Being relaxed😎

"Thailand's Disease Centre urged the public not to panic as #Thailand is familiar with the fast-spreading Covid-19 strain -- known as G-strain -- found in Myanmar migrant workers.

#B117 is similar to the G-strain from Myanmar in terms of it being fast-spreading"
Oh. That´s not the "#COVID19-under-control" #Thailand we had known for so long...

(Current updates say, today´s number could be ~850)
😕
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co… Image
Well, more ´official´ numbers say, #Thailand has just registered a new record of 745 #COVID19 cases.
bangkokpost.com/thailand/gener… Image
#Thailand´s new #COVID19 outbreak started at...
a seafood market.

Despite drastic measures (including barbed wire around some housings) the outbreak has now spread to more than 51 provinces.
This is how it started, ~2 weeks ago:
#Cyprus found that 12 out of 19 recently imported cases from UK carried #B117
😯
"Of 19 positive tests for #COVID19 recorded on individuals who arrived in Cyprus from Britain between Dec. 6-20, Cypriot authorities found that 12 were for the new variant."
de.reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
#Austria does very sporadic sequencing.
But even there, #SARSCoV2 variants have now been detected:
1x "South Africa" #501V2
4x "UK" #B117... interestingly/confusingly only 2 with the "UK" variant had been to UK (?????)🤨
sarscov2-austria.org Image
3 of #Austria´s 4 "UK" #B117 variant cases were children (12 / 10 / 9 years old). One came from #UK. The other 2 are from Slovakia (???)
Confusing...

"Even though they quarantined with (uninfected) family members, there is NO TRANSMISSION known"😯
orf.at/stories/319600…
😯#Austria found their 5 virus variant cases while sequencing samples of only 388 cases.

(targeted samples, like passengers from UK, but... that´s still ~1% of samples were already virus variants !!)
#Austria:
"The both Kids who were infected with the ´UK´ variant #B117 returned immediately to Slovakia..."
(Video at 31´35")

🤨(they brought their infection with #B117 from #Slovakia????)
tvthek.orf.at/topic/News/138… Image
The "UK" variant #B117 has just been confirmed in #Slovakia. It has been identified "in the first samples" examined from Michalovce district.😕

Michalovce is a small town at the far eastern end of Slovakia, close to the border to Ukraine...
teraz.sk/slovensko/v-sr…
#Denmark does a lot of sequencing.
They were sequencing constantly ~10% of all #COVID19 cases in December.

They found: #B117 is on the rise,
exponentially.📈

week
49: 0.2% were #B117 (´UK´ variant)
50: 0.5%
51: 0.9%
52: 2.3%

(we´re 2 weeks later, now)
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
#UK 🇬🇧 England
#Lockdown
#Schools
closed now.
#AUS 🇦🇺Victoria
#Lockdown
#Schools

earlier, last year.
#AUS 🇦🇺Victoria

needs to stay
determined &
strong

in 2021 as well...
New #COVID19 outbreak.
(it came from #NSW. #VIC borders closed, but not a lockdown, yet)
Meanwhile, in #NSW,
a potentially "explosive" infection source was discovered.

And it was seeded by *very short* contacts.
overseas travellers⤵️
↪️quarantine transfer staff
↪️colleague
↪️Beer, Wine, Spirits Shop employees
Thousands of customers...
7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the…
#NSW just found out:
A young man got infected while briefly visiting the "explosively infectious" Beer/Wine/Spirits shop in Sydney.

And then went on a road trip,
for "thousands of kilometres", across the state...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
~A week ago #Switzerland had found one swiss carrier of #501V2 ('South Africa' variant).

Until today, it is unexplicable where he got it from.
He, his contacts and his contacts' contacts had no connection to South Africa.

➡"It must be in the community"
srf.ch/article/193647…
Switzerland's #501V2 case was discovered by random sequencing.

#Denmark is sequencing ~10% of all their #COVID19 cases.
They say they'd found no carrier of this 'South Africa' variant in DK, so far.

(they soon want to be sequencing 25% of cases)
berlingske.dk/danmark/sydafr…
Based on #Denmark's sequencing results, DK's Health Minister confirmed:
the 'UK' variant #B117 is there and it's presence is growing exponentially.

"By February, #B117 will be dominating in Denmark".

(ℹWas 2.3% two weeks ago.
Would be ~10% this week...)
In #Ireland, just a few days ago:
"With <10% of all cases, #B117 is not the cause for current surge"
(based on samples from December 23 to 29).
In #Ireland, not even a week later.
"25% of #COVID19 cases are now the #B117 variant"

😕(data base is unclear, article confusing - but there'll surely be an official report, soon)
The last time, I've been staring at breaking news from #Japan like this was ~10 years ago.

There were also numbers on the screen, the narrator was talking fast.

Back then, the city's panorama was shaking.
This time, the wave is invisible.

#Tokyo: 1.500
After "carefully looking into the situation" for a month, the opinion seeking process with specialists will soon be completed...
#Tokyo's emergency plan might be announced tomorrow.

(Legally, it will be limited to ~asking everyone to behave cautiously)
😐
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Everyone in #Tokyo is insecure, if going to the movies will still be "acceptable behaviour" by tomorrow.

Today it still is.
So cinemas are crowded.

(sorry, those last 11 places are certainly sold by now - #えんとつ町のプペル is a popular anime)
#COVID19
A projection of Tokyo´s #COVID19 future:
🟥current path (R=1.1)
🟨Restaurants close earlier, only
🟦Everyone is doing their best to stop the spread

(The best case will take ~2 months to bring numbers down.)
No, there´s no foreign #Variant in this plan.
🙄
Image
This is not a simple "record number".
It is 55% higher than the same weekday, a week ago.
(Which was also a record).

Better news: although #Japan has had "only" 25 cases with #variants, they managed to isolate #B117 and are happy to share their knowledge!
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
(admittably, #India had already claimed 3 days earlier, they had also isolated the #B117 variant of #SARSCoV2...)
In a statement, #Slovakia´s Health Minister suspects
the #B117 variant might already be present in parts of the country.

("As the curve looks similar to that in England")

They´ll start a search with specific "S-gene primer" tests, soon.
(autotranslated:)
health.gov.sk/Clanok?Stanovi… Image
🇩🇪🙄
Turns out the man in #Germany who was infected with #B117 by a Czech colleague sometime Nov/Dec...

he infected his entire family.
But he was the only one whose samples were sequenced.

"As they had no outside contact, we suppose it was contained".
welt.de/regionales/nrw… Image
🇩🇪😠
Turns out #Germany has no clue how far #B117 etc variants are spread.
There´s no strategy for systematic sequencing of samples from #COVID19 cases.

They will come up with a plan "in the weeks to come"

"Priority: stop variant-import at the border"
aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/11… Image
🇩🇪😡
While #Germany´s only defence against #B117 was said to be "border controls",
North Rhine-Westphalia just blew it up:

You can chose
a) a 10 day #Quarantine
or
b) a ONE-TIME rapid antigen-test (can be done up to 24 hours AFTER entry for non-🇬🇧🇿🇦)
💥
mags.nrw/pressemitteilu… Image
There was this #School in the #Netherlands, where children were believed to spread #COVID19 infections.

Authorities invited for a mass testing.
750 people (all somehow connected to the school) took part.

First results say: 10% are positive.
#B117, too.
lansingerland.nl/actueel/update… Image
#Netherlands´ health authorities say "this is an update, not end-results":
750 tested
~75 (10%) "positive"
at least 30 of them carry #B117 (´UK´ variant)

And: it has spread to another #School.

Testing will now be massively expanded in that town.
ggdrotterdamrijnmond.nl/nieuws/uitbraa…
Quarantine Hotels are there to prevent entry of #COVID19 , but they aren´t perfect.

A cleaner, working in such a facility in Brisbane (QLD, #AUS) got infected there, with #B117.

She unknowingly went on with her normal life for 5 days, went to town, etc.
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-0…
B117 got out of quarantine.

"This person did everything right".
With #B117, doing everything right
might be not enough.

Yesterday, #Japan had
6.001 cases.
7.490 today.

That´s +25%
in one day.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
In #Tokyo, there were
1.591 cases yesterday,
2.447 today.

That´s +50%
in one day.

"A senior official said that the speed of the increase is surprising."
#COVID19
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
"#Japan´s Prime Minister had hoped cases would subside at the end of last year.
He affirmed in a news conference on December 25 that a #StateOfEmergency was not required."

"But #COVID19 cases stubbornly refused to go down..."
japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/0…
Now we have a picture of how the #B117 variant is taking hold in #Ireland.

First time registered with
⏺️8.6% (6 cases in 70 samples)
a week later
↗️12.8%
then
↗️24.9%
(the last number is already ~half a week old, so would be higher, today)

(CMO letter):
gov.ie/en/collection/… Image
#Schools & #COVID19
a very ambiguous matter....

#Ireland´s CMO wrote pragmatically
~"We still believe, kids are quite safe in schools.
But somehow closing schools does lower overall case numbers in society. Why this happens? No-one knows for sure... 🤷‍♂️"
assets.gov.ie/118212/b00522b… Image
This is, how #Ireland´s Health Minister (to whome the CMO letters are sent) interprets the advice on #Schools...
Seems #Ireland has decided to open *some* #Schools after the weekend. And somehow, this decision (and the decision process) is not well understood by ... well, a lot of people.
At the same time in #Ireland:
R >2
Variants already play a roll
"extraordinary high" #COVID19 positivity rates are being seen, as high as 40-50% in community testing.

"The message now is that if you think you have Covid-19, you probably do."
The ´UK´ variant #B117 also seems to play a bigger roll in the #Netherlands than expected.

"It seems that already 1-5% of new #COVID19 cases in #NL are the new variant" (in Amsterdam& Rotterdam)

(NL virologist, busy with screening cases for new variants)
nos.nl/liveblog/23633…
#Ireland´s idea to reopen (at least some) #Schools looks questionable.

A large Teachers´ Union just announced they had not seen convincing data that schools would be ´sufficiently safe´ in the context of #B117 variant and high #COVID19 numbers.
asti.ie/news-campaigns… Image
And....
another media realease from #Ireland´s teachers´ union:

Due to "significant health & safety concerns" they direct their members "not to co-operate", but to "engage in remote learning" instead.

#Schools & #COVID19 / #B117
asti.ie/news-campaigns… Image
#Ireland🚀#COVID19
R 2.4~3
(as a result of infections that happened ~2 weeks ago)
For those thinking
"Oh, #Incidence 50, that´ll be the goal - we´ll be safe, then..."

That´s where #Ireland was ~2 weeks ago.🔎

(note: that graph is 3 days old. Current case number is ~60% higher than then)
hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator… Image
"Number of contacts"
that´s an awesome indicator!

(if you still have an operating contact tracing system)

#Ireland calculated: contacts per case have been reduced from 4.8 (X-mas time🙄) to ~3 now.
So they suggest infection numbers might plateau, soon.
Oulalaaa

One "person working in education" has somehow been infected with #B117 in #France.
No contact to UK.

But many contacts in the 2 schools near Paris, where the person was working...
bfmtv.com/sante/variant-…
😔
Another B117 cluster in #France.
It´s a geriatric nursing home.
A nurse carried the ´UK´ variant.

It has already spread to a second ward.
2 staff members, 7 residents are positive with #B117 so far. But there are more infections, waiting to be analyzed
solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/cp_mss… Image
To get a picture how far #B117 has already spread (through its appearance in an education worker),
the city of #Bagneux (near Paris, #France) will offer tests for the entire community.

(Note: Tests not available on sunday. It's the weekend, after all!)😕
Meanwhile, #Australia:

"Greater #Brisbane will go into lockdown for three days, while contact tracers work to ensure #B117 is not circulating in the community."

3 days to sort it out.

(after a quarantine hotel's cleaner unknowingly brought it into town)
2 months ago, #Fance´s utility #RTE had warned

"Due to the #pandemic, a lot of nuclear #power plants could not be maintained as usual and will be out of service in early 2021.
In case of cold temperatures, there might be energy scarcity."

It´s happening:
"🔴#France´s current energy consumption is too high!
To avoid imminent blackouts⚡️, save #energy !

- Switch off lights
- turn (electric) heaters to low, when absent
- don´t charge your phone
- delay use of washing machines"

Do check the website:
monecowatt.fr/?refresh=16100… Image
#France´s utility #RTE is reassuring:

"There are no blackouts planned.
In case they would happen,
hospitals do have emergency backup generators"

😐

An update from the geriatric nursing home in #France:
they are infected, but sequencing of the first sample showed it´s not #B117.

It´s still a #COVID19 cluster...
bretagne.ars.sante.fr/covid-19-point… Image
People don´t realise how incredibly bad ventilated a car cabin is. Aerosols accumulate in short time.
So, if you open the window, an (invisible, but concentrated) whiff will make its way out...
#B117 arrived in #Berlin,
a lo😴😐🙄ng time ago.

One case was found via retrospective sequencing, now.
Several contacts had been infected as well.
They all have recovered since then.

Ah, maybe there were 2 more contacts, before the case was isolated...
berlin.de/sen/gpg/servic… Image
🏍️💨
#B117 is too fast

"The entire family got infected within a day"

A family member (student in #UK) who had returned for a Christmas visit brought the virus to #Berlin...

(they were tested on December 23,
the first sequencing result came in today)🐌⌛️
tagesspiegel.de/berlin/nach-ei… Image
"System Operators ensured that the system stability was not affected in most European countries."

🙄 Hey.
What´s this.
Sounds good.
It´s got nothing to do with #COVID19, does it?
.
#France:
non, non, non !
"In no way has the near blackout of the European #Energy grid anything to do with our warning today."

(Actually, they saved the grid by cutting supply to 16 industrial sites in France).
⚡️✂️⬛️
🤨But, has that near blackout anything to do with #COVID19?

Well....
As France couldn´t maintain their nuclear power plants last year (due to #COVID19),
too many plants are offline now.
There´s no reserve capacity, if things go slightly wrong...
🕯️
🙄
#Romania experienced a widespread blackout, today.
They say "there was a problem with the european network".

And they found a first case of #B117 as well.
The young lady hadn´t been out of Romania.

Not a good day.😫
rfi.ro/social-129276-…
New #COVID19 data from #Denmark´s SSI:

#B117 is continuing its exponential rise📈

Week 49: 0.2%
50: 0.5%
51: 0.9%
52: 1.9%
53: (2.9%, results are not all ready, yet)

("only a few of the cases had some contact link to the #UK"😦)
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
#Denmark´s SSI says,
screening for #B117 variant with traditional sequencing (2 week procedure) would simply take too long.

Therefore they want to roll out a new "Delta PCR" test,
enabling them to screen *ALL* positive #COVID19 cases.
Start: ~next week
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Another case of #B117 in Brisbane!
(by test result)
Or maybe not... anymore...
(by law)
it´s complicated
One lady flew from UK to Melbourne.
Quarantined there. Tested #COVID19 "positive".
Completed her 10 day quarantine and was released, as rules are.
Flew to Brisbane then.

THEN 🐌sequencing results came: she had (had) #B117.
(Another test: still "positive")
Maybe, a faster #B117 screening would have prevented the new Brisbane scare.

Or an appropriate quarantine period, allowing to wait for the slower sequencing results (which is what seems to be done, now)...
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-0…
The fire department🚒of Marseille (#France) has a very special duty:
They take wastewater samples to analyse them for #COVID19 markers.🪣🦠🔬

2 days ago, they noted that the markers had suddenly started to go up.📈

They worried,
and they were right...
Regional Health Authority:

"A returnee from #UK tested #COVID19 ´positive´ on Dec31, in Marseille (#France).
He had 45 close contacts, 23 of them tested ´positive´, so far.

Latest news:
the index case is carrier of the #B117 variant..."

😫
#Marseille fire department´s wastewater surveillance is a dedicated #COVID19 detection force.
They take samples of ~100 nursing homes, every week.
They also take sewer samples.
"Sometimes we can prevent clusters before the first person even shows symptoms"
woah,
#Berlin - are you alright there?

You guys at the statistics department all enjoyed your lazy holidays and now you´re back at work... that must be it.
Or should we be worried ?

+50% #COVID19 incidence
in ~3 days
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Update on the spread of #B117 in the #Netherlands:
🟡ALL Willibrord-#School cases are infected with the ´UK´ variant.
⚠️Infections have already spread outside of school setting (contacts of families)

(Actually 3 days old, but it was very hard to find...)
nltimes.nl/2021/01/08/bri… Image
Due to an alarming surge in #COVID19 cases,
#Tokyo is under "State of Emergency".

The traditional Sumo tournament still goes on.
65 wrestlers will be missing, because they´re infected or close contacts.

But there´s also one more who will not take part...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Due to concerns about #COVID19 infections at #Tokyo´s Sumo tournament, one wrestler asked for allowance to stay away.

Japan´s Sumo association denied his wish as being "unreasonable"

So he ended his career💪
In Marseille (#France), 23 of 45 known contacts of a #B117 carrier from #UK tested #COVID19 "positive".
Already 7 of them have now been confirmed to carry the ´UK´ variant.

The fire department is deployed with special test teams to confine the outbreak.
bfmtv.com/politique/mars…
The fire department´s COMETE
(COvid #Marseille Environment Testing & Expertise)
unit uses 2 mobile labs and 10 rapid-testing teams.

Through wastewater samples they encircled one specific house today.
30 inhabitants were tested:
2 more #COVID19 cases found
A video of Marseille´s COMETE #COVID19 detection unit in action. (Using LAMP assay for SARS-CoV-2 detection, it seems).

(It´s dated April 2020. They were pretty swiftly adopting to the new challenge, there...)
Another day, another #B117 case in #France:
This time in popular ski region Hautes-Alpes.

The story is the same as in Marseille:
"A french family, residing in #UK came to France to spend their holidays..."

(Case and contacts isolated, now)
Slovakia´s Health Minister, after finding ´UK´ virus cases in yet another city (Bratislava):

"Seems the new variant (#B117) has already been distributed to every region of #Slovakia and thus isolating individual regions at this stage would be pointless."
newsnow.tasr.sk/policy/krajci-…
🌎From #Brazil to #Japan🧬
Another new #SARSCoV2 variant was detected in 4 passengers from the Amazonas region, who arrived at Haneda airport on January 2.

(Yes, there are many variants, but this is maybe another one to watch out for...)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
It´s not yet clear, what the new variant from #Brazil is capable of, but it also has the "increased infectiousness" mutation.

(Here´s info from #Japan, where the new variant was discovered):
Checking wastewater for #COVID19 indicators:

"The #B117 strain could be detected by mid December,
2 weeks before its first verification in a patient sample from #Switzerland..."
The #Brisbane 3-day radical #Lockdown ends.

They think they got #B117 under control.
It was just one Index case...
and they guess they found all 370 close contacts.

They are all quarantined and tested.

0 new cases in the community, so far.
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-1…
Would #Brisbane consider another #Lockdown again?

"It depends if it's from this UK variant, this is a whole new ball game - it's something we've never seen before…"

(Half of 370 contacts have so far returned ´negative´ test results, so there´s hope)
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-1…
In #France, things are still a long way from "under control"...

The case of #B117 in the Hautes-Alpes ski area turns out to be a family member of the index case who caused infections in Marseille.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
It's not over, in #Brisbane.
But it's reassuring to know that all contacts of the index case are believed to be in quarantine already...

(+In case one went unnoticed: masks remain mandatory and several other measures will stay in place for 10 more days.)
A while ago, "some people" went skiing in the beautiful mountain village of Wengen (#Switzerland).
Before they returned home, they left something behind.

#B117 outbreak now.
Everyone is urged to stay indoors.
(✳Yes, including tourists✳)

Image
#Switzerland´s authorities are "worried about the aggressive spread of infections" in Wengen.
They assume "this effect is caused by the ´UK´ mutation" #B117

They are so worried that
they just cancelled

Lauberhorn Worldcup

worth ~9 million CHF
⛷️❌💰❌
Image
Just a few hours before regional authorities withdrew their approval,
#Lauberhorn worldcup organizers
were appeasing:

"The races are not cancelled, yet.
We still look into the situation..."

(#B117 outbreak Wengen, #Switzerland)
Image
#Lauberhorn worldcup organizers are in shock.

And the wording ~"cantonal authorities decided..." + "we support their decision"
is usually a strong indicator that authorities didn´t negotiate much, but ordered the whole thing to close immediately
😮
Image
An update on the teacher who carried #B117 while working at 2 schools, near #Paris:

First results for her 172 colleagues are in:
2 are #COVID19 "positive".
They are also teachers.

(interestingly, no other carrier of the ´UK´ variant was found, so far...)
The history of the #B117 outbreak in Marseille goes (so far):

French family from #UK comes to enjoy X-mas with ~15 friends in #Marseille.🥂☣️🎄
One of the infected then goes off to celebrate New Year´s Eve with ~12 friends...🥂☣️🎇

and so on.
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes…
Here we get a look behind the scenes of #Marseille´s #COVID19 hunting fire brigade unit ´COMETE´.
🚒🧬👨‍🔬
(like adventurous innovators always do, they installed their lab in a garage...)
lci.fr/societe/video-… Image
#Marseille´s #B117 outbreak:
Prequel

The family from #UK got tested, before they left for #France: negative.
They self-isolated 4 days in France, then got tested again negative.
At their party in Marseille, everyone did a rapid (antigen) test: negative
🤨
dna.fr/sante/2021/01/…
Another X-mas visit from #UK, in #France.
"Upon the very first symptoms, the family self-isolated at the grandparents´ house and got tested."

Nevertheless both grandparents got infected.
Grandpa needed to go to hospital (Dec 29).

Tests at hospital, now.
That map (beginning of the clip) is supposed to show all regions of #France where #B117 cases have been detected, so far.

Some of them happened early as mid-December.
Some of them had no #UK contacts.

(what happened in Aquitaine? Haven´t found a report.)
#Austria found some "suspicious anomaly" in 17 PCR Tests from #Tyrol
(~pointing to #B117).

Then they found out: most tests came from #UK citizens.
They all arrived before Dec18 - First symptoms on Jan3. (⚠)

(They came for skiing instructors' training)🎿
The situation in Wengen (#Switzerland) sounds drastic.

One #UK guest initiated a chain of #B117 infections ~Dec27 (or before).
First, it hit the hotel staff.
Then it spread into the village.
Now, new infections come in continuosly.

~"We couldn´t stop it"
be.ch/portal/de/inde… Image
Authorities think #B117 infections may also have affected 80 kids, who spent their holidays skiing in Wengen
(Some already tested #COVID19 "positive").

Holidays are over.

They all have returned back to home
(somewhere else in #Switzerland)...
🚸
srf.ch/news/schweiz/v… Image
Due to the rapid rise of #B117 infections, #Lauberhorn ski worldcup was cancelled. Installations in Wengen stand abandoned.

They will now be used for voluntary mass testing of everyone in the village
(👉Yes, this includes tourists👈)
20min.ch/story/kanton-f…
Press conference in #Switzerland🇨🇭today (on #B117):

"Where the new virus variants arrive, the situation becomes alarming very quickly.

Even in situations where we´d thought we had done everything to prevent a spread"
🚨🧬
The #501V2 variant has spread in #Germany.
On Dec13, a family returned from South Africa.

They followed the rules: self isolate, then a test after 5 days.
Their tests came back "negative", so they were "cleared" to go.

Symptoms started a week later...
🙄
A sequencing of the first ´supicious´ case already showed:
#501V2 has arrived to #Germany.

In the time to this discovery, already 3 other households (6 persons) had been infected...

More contacts are about to be sequenced.
zollernalbkreis.de/aktuelles/nach… Image
In the wake of being surrounded by states with outbreaks of new virus variants, #Bavaria just made #FFP2 masks mandatory on public transport and while shopping.

"We need full protection, now.
And they are available in sufficient volumes."
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
Reactions to #FFP2 mask mandate in #Bavaria:

😩They are expensive!
😫And you should not wear them for prolongued time!

😷(idealistic me:) YES, SO STAY THE HECK AWAY FROM PLACES WHERE YOU WOULD NEED TO WEAR MASKS !!!!
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
According to the Mayor,
health authorities have just declared the outbreak of "the mutant virus" #B117 in #Marseille as being under control.
France´s Health Minister just announced that a study on thousands of PCR tests (from Thursday/Friday last week) showed that

"1% of all cases in #France are now the ´UK´ variant #B117"

There´s no concentration in one region. They´re scattered everywhere."
The reference tweet for the "1% of cases in France are now #B117" statement has been moved to another link by BFMTV.

But (even better) here´s the article.
(Adding that the survey will now be repeated regularly)
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
HERE´s what happened in France´s Aquitaine region

Back on December 19,
Europeleague rugby club #Bayonne welcomed the team of Leicester #UK for one match in France...

7 days later, 7 players tested #COVID19 "positive",
another 5 days later, 2 more:👨‍🔬#B117
lci.fr/sante/video-co…
Due to a very worrying rise in case numbers, #Japan has declared a State of Emergency for multiple cities (including #Tokyo).

This is supposed to show a recent picture of Tokyo´s hospital coordination centre.
#テレワークできない 🙄
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
Interesting to see, how #B117 overcomes barriers that were so far deemed to be "safe":

inside the quarantine hotel, where #Brisbane´s index case is isolated, cases of the ´UK´ variant now are spreading to other quarantinees.

No one knows why...
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-1…
Now #Brisbane's Quarantine hotel is deemed so unsafe, that those who had been quarantined there before are now urged to...
immediately quarantine again!
♻
They could be infected with #B117

at least that's the view of another state (#Victoria).
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-1…
~3 weeks after "Tier 4" measures came into force,
England´s case numbers look as if they´d slow down.
Image
Somehow #Switzerland seems to anticipate #COVID19 cases might soon cause workplaces to be hotspots.

New rules issued today, including:
-masks are mandatory at indoor workplaces (regardless of distance !)
-work from home is mandatory (*when ever feasible)
So,
this is #Brisbane´s quarantine hotel,
where #B117 infections were spreading across the 7th floor?
Only on that floor - not above or below?

🤔How could this have happened ??????
mmmmmhhhhhnnn....

🙄
Image
Ah?😧

So we already "have evidence" that the ´South Africa´ variant #501V2 is not fought off by antibodies from earlier "ordinary" #COVID19 infections?

And this is just the explanation why...:
Image
Oh?😧

So the ´Amazonas´ variant from Brazil,
(I think it is named #501V3, now)
is also reinfecting those who had an "ordinary" #COVID19 infection earlier?
virological.org/t/genomic-char…
(via @kenmomd) Image
It's hidden in a presentation on financial aid...

But on page 32,
Switzerland's canton #Vaud calculates:
🔹5-8% of cases are now 'UK' / 'South Africa' variants.
🔹"Possible outbreak of third Wave in 2-3 weeks"
(⚠)
via @slwirth
#B117 #501V2 #COVID19
vd.ch/fileadmin/user… Image
And there's a large #B117 cluster at the LHC...

(nope - not the "Large Hadron Collider"💫)
It's the "Lausanne Hockey Club"!⚾
And they're believed to already have spread infections to other teams (as early as January 2) during hockey matches.
😕
rts.ch/sport/hockey/1…
#UK requires
No quarantine
No testing

Just
No Entry⛔️🤚
due to the ´Brazil´ variant (#B11248)
🇵🇹🤷 Don´t argue.
As a European country with actual borders with #Brazil, #France is ramping up its border protection of their overseas departement French #Guiana.

(It´s much closer to the origin of variant #B11248 in the Amazon than Portugal🌎)
Ah!😦
So this is what it looks like, when the ´Brazil/Amazon´ variant with its "#E484K mutation" comes and infects everyone again

(especially those, who might have thought they were immune, as they´d had #COVID19 in the earlier days...)
🤔What gives better protection than wearing #FFP2 masks on public transport?

😉No public transport!

It´s suggested #Germany is contemplating this step.

(It will need more thorough thinking for sure...
Maybe ´for essential use only´?🤨
Difficult.)
It is thought 17 of the infected "ski instructors" in Tyrol do carry #B117.
A close contact was also tested "positive" today.
His PCR test shows "anomalies", as well.

On the contrary:
~1.000 villagers have been tested so far.
3 "positive", no #B117.
tirol.gv.at/presse/meldung… Image
Wait...what????!
😲

"There's an ongoing concern amongst a lot of health professionals that the Government isn't acting on the possibility of aerosol transmission of COVID-19"

#Queensland doesn't know aerosol transmission of #SARSCoV2 / #COVID19????

#Queensland,
March 2020

"Studies show people are catching COVID19 through larger respiratory droplets when they're close to an infected person.

If with further study we find out this information has changed, we’ll let you know."

😱STILL UNCHANGED TODAY!
health.qld.gov.au/news-events/ne…
Many cities in France have their wastewater analyzed for #COVID19 markers in a central lab called #OBÉPINE.

In their experience, #COVID cases follow wastewater markers after ~3 weeks.

The lab now warned:
the indicators for #Paris have gone up 50%.
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
lesechos.fr/industrie-serv…
National Health Directorate of #France:

"We have detected one case carrying the ´South Africa´ variant #501V2 in Val-de-Marne" (near Paris).

"It seems his contacts are spread over the #Paris region, as well as other regions"...
solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/actualites/pre… Image
I read
year´s end was meant to bring families together.
To bring those who live abroad back to #Lebanon, so they could spend some money in cafés, shops, event locations - they opened just for that period.

It brought some money.
But what did it take away
Trying to hold back the outbreaks,
Lebanon is in #Lockdown, now.
A real lockdown.
24 hour curfew, for 11 days.
Supermarkets are closed.

But there´s delivery service,
if you have the money.

So, only for a few.
Meanwhile, in #Switzerland:
"the death rate is the price we pay to keep our economy running"

Even there, the price is seen as too high, now.
Switzerland's #COVID19 Science Task Force:

(campaigning for massive measures' roll-out, using swiss-style arguments:)

"With vaccination in sight, preventing infections will bevome more cost-effective.
Such measures could be seen as an investment..."💰
Image
Brazil:

"A 29-year-old woman contracted Covid-19 for the first time in March 2020 and was infected again in December, nine months later."

It has now been confirmed, the #reinfection was caused by the new '#Brazil/Amazon' variant (#P1).
oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coro…
A week earlier,
authorities in Bahia (#Brazil) had already confirmed another case of #reinfection - but with the 'South Africa' variant...
The ´UK´ Variant #B117 (which ´only´ infects people more easily) is starting to be traced in multiple countries.
Here´s the data #Switzerland has found:

CH🇨🇭 seems to follow the path of UK,
📈with ~9 weeks delay.

(Denmark keeps the rise slower)
sciencetaskforce.ch/wp-content/upl… Image
Someone had the idea to install an air sampler in a car that was driven by a "mildly symptomatic" (#COVID19) person.

The drive took 15 minutes.
The sampler detected "viable virus" in airborne particles on the passenger´s side.

(enough to infect someone?)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
One expert panel in #Germany is now commissioned to analyze the effects of potentially infectious aerosols
-in public transport
-in crew vehicles (police patrol, etc.)

(Halting public transport is still discussed
Bavaria will make FFP2 masks mandatory.)
landtag-bw.de/home/aktuelles… Image
Oh look!
Even the ´UK´ variant #B117 can be mastered!

(with everbody staying home during X-Mas holidays, schools closed and #Tier4 restrictions...)📉

🔎"we need to keep an eye on the uptick during the last couple of days" - that´s when work had resumed📈
Image
Seems
that ´workplace as an infection source´ idea might be actually a thing...

UK: #SARSCoV2 infections at workplaces increasing,
after holidays are over and work has started.

(....🤨wait... that´s a no-brainer, isn´t it?)
Image
One workplace that´s particularly high on my personal
"I´m happy to do something else"
list:
2020: collapsing players due to bushfire smoke
2021: #COVID19
🤷
#AustralianOpen #Melbourne #VIC
Oh.
That´s another plane.
On the way to the #AustralianOpen.

One passenger, one crew member tested #COVID19
"negative" before departure

"positive" upon arrival.
🧬🛬🇦🇺
Ah?
Those flights to Melbourne.
They were special charter flights for #AustralianOpen players & entourage?

I´d have thought they´d have an especially strict #COVID19 protection concept, considering the vast amount of money depending on these matches...🤷
There´s one special protection measure for the #AustralianOpen tournament:
the players arrive 3 weeks before the event starts.

That´s (theoretically) enough time to spend a #Quarantine.
But: staying in room = no training.
Since March 2020, Vienna (#Austria) runs a wastewater #COVID19 surveillance.

This week, they suddenly found markers that were "different". They´re checking now if (and what type of) a #SARSCoV2 variant is circulating...
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
wien.orf.at/stories/308515…
#Vienna is running voluntary #COVID19 mass rapid (antigen) tests, this week.
Out of the "positive" test results, they picked
83 samples.
14 of them seem to be "some #Variant" (~17%).

They´ll go into sequencing, to see if it´s #B117, or whatever...
wien.orf.at/stories/308524…
#Vienna spokesperson brings up some points:
~"with today´s hints of that amount of #variants in Vienna, it might as well be that #B117 has been around for much longer than we thought"
~"if the #variants have been around for weeks/months, how do we interpret our #COVID19 curves?
Did the variants cause our (#Austria) peak in November?
Are our case numbers not going down because variants are here, now?
We simply can´t tell..."
#Portugal also thinks
the ´UK´ variant #B117 may have been introduced "before Christmas".
It´s arrival to Portugal might have happened "between September and December"...
One of the overrun hospitals in #Portugal (Torres Vedras, 2 nights ago).
There are 3 nursing homes affected by large outbreaks.
The hospital itself had to deal with 157 internal #COVID19 cases, already.

They managed to create 21 additional beds over night
Torres Vedras (#Portugal) has ~80.000 citizens.
1.013 of them are "active #COVID19 cases" right now.

(That´s one third of the 3.260 cases they ever had, during this pandemic).

1.671 are now in quarantine.
251 are waiting for test results.
cm-tvedras.pt/artigos/detalh… Image
(Well... #Portugal´s rise in hospital admissions is too tall for twitter - it´ll be cut off in the tweet.)

It suddenly happened on December 26, when everything was looking good,
just like "the wave" would soon be over...
coronavirus.rr.sapo.pt Image
There´s some weird artefact in #Portugal´s dashboard.

Yesterday, confirmed #COVID19 cases in the
age group of 10-19 year olds jumped
from ~48.000
to ~274.000

As if someone had decided to start testing all school kids...
(🤔Not sure what really happened)
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
This was (is?) #Portugal´s plan:

"In this #Lockdown we will keep #schools fully open.
We cannot sacrifice an entire generation of students.

Earlier we had seen: schools are safe places.
And we´ll introduce frequent mass rapid antigen testings..."
🙄
publico.pt/2021/01/13/pol…
Meanwhile in🇨🇭Switzerland´s Ticino:

A school noticed a #COVID19 infection in a student on January 7.
Then another one, and another...
School went on.

It was yesterday that they received lab results:
it´s ´UK´ variant #B117.
NOW the school is quarantined
www4.ti.ch/area-media/com… Image
´nough of schools - it´s sunday, finally !
😁Let´s flick on the sport websites and enjoy some...
😦ah, no.
No tennis.

(if I counted right, that´s the third plane, already)🙄
#COVID19 #Quarantine #AustralienOpen #Melbourne
A warning from #Denmark.

"it looks like the wave is receding.
And it really does. But there´s something hidden underneath that might surface soon..."

(Okay, official text in next tweet...)
🌊🦈🧬
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co… Image
#B117 is still rising in #Denmark

Week 49: 0.2%
50: 0.5%
51: 0.9%
52: 1.9%
53: 2.9%
01: ~3.6%
02: ~8%

"The numbers over all are constantly going down. But in fact, this effect is just the non-#B117 variants..."
"#B117 cases are growing as predicted."🔎📈
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
In normal times, Manaus (#Brazil) is self sufficient with oxygen (28.000 m3/day).
Now, with #COVID19, their hospitals need 75.000 m3/day.

"As support, we now start to send them 30.000 m3 per day..."

(🧮...😟)
A week ago, it was discovered that one UK tourist had started a chain of #B117 infections in #Wengen (#Switzerland).
Contact tracing soon found ~28+ infected contacts.

Testing was then offered to all inhabitants:
970 tested,
7 positive ("only", they say)
jungfrauzeitung.ch/artikel/187556/ Image
"Only 7" of 970 tested positive, in a week.
That´s a ~720 incidence rate.

"No, we´re not an extraordinary hotspot. If you´d look in other villages around, you´d find similar numbers..."
🙄
(this🇨🇭tourism director from #Wengen convinces me...
to stay away)
jungfrauzeitung.ch/artikel/187444/ Image
Shortly before the start of the winter holidays, some schools in #Ontario (Canada) started to see more and more #COVID19 cases among staff & students.

It was contemplated if schools should stay closed/online for a while...
toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/ontario…
Recent data from #Ontario:

17.6% of tested kids in age group "0-13 years" returned 'positive' results.
(15.1% in age group 14-17)

It's unclear why this happened (to become apparent) as soon as school holidays started.
As "1 in 5" children tested positive (during holidays),
#Ontario refrained from opening schools.
reuters.com/article/health…
All I can say is... 🤷
(and don´t ask me about current State of Emergency rules, there in Ontario - that´s even more confusing)
One more clarification:
it seems #Portugal´s dashboard sys-admin woke up to a shock this morning😱
and swiftly corrected the "220.000 children have become infected over night" artefact of yesterday.

Everything´s fine😑 it´s ´just´ ~2.000 over the weekend.
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
A follow up on the #B117 outbreak in Wengen (#Switzerland):

Yes, they found "only 7" in 970 local villagers had been infected.
In fact there had been many more. Most of them tourists, who had already returned home, before tests started...
After spending their holidays skiing with their family in Wengen (during the #B117 outbreak),
2 kids returned home a week ago and went to school.
(Bremgarten, Switzerland)

They brought #B117 with them
The entire school (and families) are quarantined, now
20min.ch/story/120-bern…
When #Switzerland´s authorities realized #B117 infections were spreading at tremendous speed in Wengen, they changed quarantine rules.

Secondary contacts should also quarantine.

This means:
Your entire family, if one kid in your kid´s class is infected.
telebasel.ch/2021/01/18/120… Image
Another school with (potential) #B117 contacts in Oberwil, #Switzerland.
Authorities wanted to test kids & families, today.

But some parents would "prefer not to be tested..."
🤷
20min.ch/story/primarsc…
Peculiar timing for this tweet.
But yes, let´s remember:

there´s always a person behind the mask
Behind the mask, there may be a smile.
Behind the smile, there may be today´s actual mood.

After all, it´s a job.
Sometimes it means:
disinfecting your guests´ luggage.

A job that might get done with a stern face, today.
At #Kempinski in #StMoritz 🇨🇭
kempinski.com/en/st-moritz/g… Image
There´s a #COVID19 cluster at 2 luxury hotels in #StMoritz, #Switzerland.

it´s said:
- it´s the ´South Africa" variant
- personnel is quarantined
- guests are allowed to leave after a "negative" test

(schools in town are closed now,
mass test tomorrow)
gr.ch/DE/Medien/Mitt… Image
The second luxury hotel in #StMoritz is said to have the strictest #COVID19 prevention measures.

So everyone is shocked it happened.

(But it´d also been said for a while: our usual measures might not be enough for the new virus variants, like #501V2)
badruttspalace.com/wp-content/upl… Image
What a rollercoaster ride.

#Ireland´s Level 5 #Lockdown came into force ~2.5 weeks ago, when cases were still lower than today.

It came too late to prevent the steep surge soon after.
And as short as it seems to have been - it had a profound effect...
covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com Image
After Ireland´s #COVID19 peak:

~"One in ten in the population is now either a case or a contact.
So we advise everyone:
-regard yourself as a contact
-stay at home."

Numbers are still too high to resume contact tracing...
~"There´s no point in hoping we´ll stop the ´UK´ variant from becoming dominant in #Ireland. But we can slow it down."

("3 cases of variants from Brazil and from South Africa had been identified, and they were confined without onward transmissions")
So the ´UK´ variant #B117 has made its way

from Ireland
via Marseille
and has now arrived in #Morocco...

(🚢in 80 days around the world🌍)
After analyzing samples, the #Czech Republic has announced:

"around 10% of our samples are the #B117 variant."

And they vividly describe the variant´s capability:
"It can do in 6 days, what the old variant would have taken 10 days to do".⏱️💨
eurozpravy.cz/domaci/zdravot…
Various variants in various places of #Germany:
🔸40+ cases of #B117 in a nursing home
🔸Returnees from South Africa trip infected a befriendet family with #501V2
🔸A (completely) new variant was found in a hospital outbreak in Bavaria (properties unknown)
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
From today, Germany´s new "Surveillance & Sequencing" ordinance will be active.

It simply guarantees the state will take over the costs of sequencing (for 5-10% of samples from positive #COVID19 cases)

(🤷didn´t find any further strategy in the text)
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/presse/pressem…
There´ll be a #Lockdown evaluation meeting of Germany´s state representatives, today.
Late at night, they discussed options with some experts.

And there was a plan-proposal on the tables.
A "#NoCovid" plan...
🔎
zeit.de/wissen/gesundh… Image
Key elements of #Germany´s 🇩🇪proposed #NoCovid plan:

- get some experts from Australia and New Zealand
- install a hard #Lockdown, until incidence rate is down to 10.
- then bring it to zero.
- enjoy d0nut days

And the prominent example is:
#Melbourne🇦🇺
zeit.de/wissen/gesundh… Image
Oh. Melbourne.
And tennis.
🙄
That´ll be Germany
and soccer,
then...
Is this it?
😟
The red area to the left.
"Norfriesland" district.

It had one of #Germany´s lowest #COVID19 incidence rates,
14 days ago: (37.4)

That rate is at ~162 today....
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
What happened in #Nordfriesland?

"We had #COVID19 before,

so on January 4 we thought we could control the situation as we always had done before.
After a few days we became aware - this time, it would not be possible...

several wards reported outbreaks"
nordfriesland.de/Quicknavigatio… Image
4 days ago, the situation in #Nordfriesland became tense:

due to #COVID19 outbreaks, both district hospitals signed off (no new admittances accepted)
🚑↩️📴
Healthcare personnel is under "work quarantine" now:
Those who are infected but asymptomatic, work
nordfriesland.de/Quicknavigatio… Image
In some places, infections have already been introduced into #Nordfriesland´s community.

Before it started, there were~380 in #quarantine.
This numbers is ~3.000, today.

~2.200 of them are hospital staff, visitors and patients.
nordfriesland.de/PDF/21_01_18_C… Image
There´s some ´irritation´:

Some #COVID19 infected elderly patients had been discharged from #Nordfriesland´s hospitals and brought back to their nursing homes.

Authority: "if they are not in need of medical assistance, they cannot stay in hospital"...
🙄
nordschleswiger.dk/de/tondern-sue… Image
There´s no explanation for what caused the abnormally rapid spread of #COVID19 cases in #Nordfriesland.

But just to the north of Nordfriesland lies #Syddanmark.
The region with the highest proportion of #B117 cases in Denmark...
week 1: 5.8%
last week: 9%
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
#Sweden does (some basic) sequencing, to follow the spread of new #SARSCoV2 variants.

They found #B117

Jan7: 17 cases, of which (5) without any link to UK
Jan12: 25 (8)
Jan19: 55 (16)
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-ber… Image
Germany's first fatal #COVID19 reinfection has now happened in #Baiersbronn?

That's also the town of Germany's first #B117 case...
(came with one of the last flights from #UK, December 20)
Just a little backstory on how #B117 came to #Baiersbronn,
on December 21:

(~A man managed to get his "positive" daughter out of isolation at Frankfurt airport. Then drove her home to Baiersbronn.

That´s a ~3 hour ride in their car...)
A story that came up in #Norway, yesterday:

On December 18, a man from Bjørnafjorden went to pick up visitors from UK at the airport.
The ride back home took ~40 minutes.
They were wearing masks.
😷🚗
Still, #B117 infection was transmitted in the car...
nrk.no/vestland/henta…
(Yes, I omit the intro.
Let´s concentrate on the girl)

A little girl in #Belgium got infected with #B117.
She infected ~her entire family.
And a classmate at school.
At home, that classmate infected her mother, who works as a teacher at another school...
ad.nl/buitenland/vla… Image
The little belgian girl´s #B117 infection caused a quarantine for 5.000 people:
-kids at 2 schools
-and all those kids´ contacts (families at home)

(Or it was caused by "authorities who decided", or "the girl´s mother who brought B117 from Switzerland"🙄)
netherlandsnewslive.com/one-woman-brea…
Tests at the second school in #Belgium (where the #B117 infected teacher was working) showed:
out of 1.700 tested
14 were #COVID19 "positive".

~Only 2 of them with #B117...
kontich.be/persbericht-co… Image
Tests at the belgian school where the 2 #B117 "index case girls" went to class for ~2.5 days showed:
another 2 girls had been infected with #B117.
And one outsider boy with ´classic´ #COVID19.

(BTW: the article lists plenty more outbreaks at schools...)
standaard.be/cnt/dmf2021011…
Update on #Germany´s first fatal #COVID19 reinfection:
the patient was 74 years old
had recovered from a first infection in April´20
got infected once more in December.

"There´ll be no sequencing, since he had no travel history"
So unknown, if #B117 etc🤷
tagesschau.de/investigativ/n…
#Portugal

Civil Protection of #Lisbon
requests immediate closure of all schools
military support
medical personnel from abroad
😦
The community of Mafra, #Portugal (~75.000 citizens)
says, they´d have 75 school classes in quarantine, at the moment.
Accounting for ~2.000 students
(educational staff not included)

"it´s disrupting our entire contact tracing system"
cm-mafra.pt/pages/1144?new… Image
#Portugal
"Since #school classes began on January 6,
the age group 13-17 has a higher #COVID19 incidence rate than older people and continues to rise exponentially,
as does 18-24."
publico.pt/2021/01/18/soc…
"The #COVID19 pandemic has gained momentum in #Portugal since Christmas, when restrictions on gatherings and movement were eased for four days."
4 days...
apnews.com/article/corona…
4 days...
of eased restrictions
a month ago
caused this?
#Portugal #COVID19
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
Since December 1, #Portugal has sequenced 27.096 samples from positive #COVID19 cases.

They found something:
in the beginning ~1%
now it´s ~13%

They say it´s #B117.
But could also be something else
(with the same "Spike gene dropout/SGTF")...
virological.org/t/tracking-sar… Image
"What we have ahead of us is probably the greatest tragedy of recent centuries,
if it is even possible to find in #Portugal's history anything similar to what is and will happen in terms of the number of deaths,"

(Advisor to Health Authority)
#Luxembourg
has offered medical help to #Portugal.

(proposal to take over some patients to care for them in Luxembourg, like they did for France)
"Not just the schools, we need to close everything!"

"Nobody understands what´s going on here. Maybe the UK-Variant (#B117) is already widespread..."

(Head of Infectiology, Central #Lisbon University Hospital Centre,
they´re treating 9 children, now)
#Portugal's football association opened their guesthouse, today.

It won't house national football teams - it will be used as field hospital for #COVID19 patients...
Yesterday,
after new data came in
about #COVID19 infections,
the rapid spread of #B117,
the dramatic situation at hospitals

Portugal´s President made up his mind.
jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/en/noticias/pr… Image
After being urged by municipalities, school directors, unions and Portugal´s President,

still somewhat reluctantly,
Portugal´s Prime Minister announced:

Schools will close from friday

However, he stressed
"schools are not the main focus of transmission"
sabado.pt/portugal/detal…
Still: no self testing.
And
a rapid (antigen) test will not be recognized everywhere.

#France announced:
All EU travellers will need a PCR test, before entering french territory.

(from sunday on)
(for non-EU citizens, there may be some quarantine added, I guess)
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
And then...

26 students from #UK
came to Chamonix (#France)

They presented a "negative" PCR test.
Shortly after, they had first symptoms
14 test results are in: 12 #COVID19 "positive", remaining results will follow.
British tabloid has detailed background on the #COVID19 cluster among UK "students" in Chamonix, and how they ended up in #France

Meanwhile, 16 of them have tested "positive".
Unclear if it is #B117.
But they think they "caught it on the train in France"
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
The UK🇬🇧 "students" had booked a "Ski-instructor qualification" course
in... Verbier🇨🇭
(Maybe like the one below...)

As we all know, Switzerland demands #quarantine from UK travellers.
Someone found the "loophole" to spend the "quarantine" in France🇫🇷...
peakleaders.com/2020/12/become… Image
The "ski-instructor students" arrived in the mountain village in #France "by road, air or train" on January 13 - 17.

Some of them had tried to enter the Eurostar train in London with their equipment.

Seems even the train manager thought it was too absurd
The ´Brazil/Amazonas´ variant #P1 has arrived in #Germany.

Article below mentions the passenger was asymptomatic and was detected "positive" when arriving at Frankfurt.

(German articles state he was known to be positive while still on the flight (?!))
dw.com/pt-br/alemanha…
It´s 2 months, since the outbreak at a #school in the #Netherlands (later identified as #B117).

Now, first ressults from mass tests are in:
out of 27.000 samples from local citizens
242 were #COVID19 "positive" (~0.9%)
´only´ ~29 of them carried #B117.

nos.nl/artikel/236547…
It seems, #B117 hadn´t spread much outside the Willibrord #School setting in the #Netherlands.

But at the school itself, it was found that
70 out of 684 testees carried the #B117 variant
(kids, staff and their families at home!).
ggdrotterdamrijnmond.nl/nieuws/lansing…
#Belgium
#COVID19

"~Something's brewing underneath.
The real numbers aren't as good as statistics might suggest.
We should be holding our breath..."

(some regions reversed their positive trend and started climbing again)
On January 7,
a case of #COVID19 was registered in Lisbon, #Portugal.

"~Unfortunately,
our retrospective sequencing now discovered: it was #501V2, the 'South Africa' variant.

We believe it was a single case"...
That person on the flight #Brazil-#Germany,
he had a positive PCR test.
For reasons unknown, he still made it onto the plane.

German authorities were warned and awaited him.
A specific test showed: the 'Brazil' variant.

All on board were quarantined...
Well,
the rules of the game are simple:

Wherever a #COVID19 (variant) case pops up,
all contacts
and their secondary contacts
go into quarantine.

If you feel comfortable with this,
Mr. "Open everything up",
go ahead.
Bring your country to a standstill.
rnd.de/politik/unions…
Mayor of Oslo (#Norway):

"Today is a heavy day in our city.
We´ve been trying so hard for so long already.

I have a great understanding for everyone who today feels that they are fed up."

The entire region will go into #Lockdown.
They found #B117
🧬
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad… Image
Yesterday, the #B117 variant was found in samples from 2 fatalities at a nursing home in Nordre Follo
(a municipality near #Oslo).
😕
The problem:
those samples had been taken ~3 weeks ago...
(January 3)
😯
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/e… Image
Further research showed:
-no known source of infection
-multiple contacts already infected
-suspected spread outside the facility to kindergarten

#Norway´s first #B117 community transmission had been active for more than 3 weeks, now!
⚠️Regional #Lockdown
nordrefollo.kommune.no/nyheter/2021/j… Image
"Nearby" communities start urging:

Everyone who has been to: #Oslo region in the last week:
-reduce contacts
-get tested - even if you feel no symptoms !

("nearby" in #Norway scale is ~300km)
#B117
nrk.no/nyheter/grimst…
#Denmark gives out a warning
(to whom it may concern...), that

📢"#Norway is introducing the strictest restrictions since March 2020, due to outbreaks of #B117 in Oslo region"
⚠️
#Sweden urges

"Norwegian authorities fear a major #outbreak of the new British virus variant in the #Oslo area.

🚨Everyone who has been to #Norway in the last 14 days:
-get tested immediately !
-self isolate for at least 7 days !
-follow up test also!"🚨
"#Søringkarantene"
was chosen Norway´s most popular new word in 2020.

I can see it in widespread use again, today...

(It means "Quarantine for the Southerners (~Oslo)". Some municipalities in #Norway´s North introduced it during the first #COVID19 wave).
nrk.no/sorlandet/nye-… Image
"#Oslo should be treated like a foreign country"
Tracking mobile phones, closing alcohol shops and venues, restricting access to hospitals...

Municipalities in the #Lockdown region´s vicinity prepare measures to deter Oslofolk from coming.
nrk.no/tromsogfinnmar…
🛑🚧#Sweden is about to install a complete entry ban from #Norway.🚧🛑

(Due to a #B117 variant outbreak in Norway´s Oslo region with unknown dimension, so far.)
Meanwhile in #Germany:

An outbreak of #B117 at a hospital in #Berlin has now expanded to 20 cases.
(14 patients, 6 staff)

It is likely the outbreak has already reached into the community,
as staff´s family members seem to display symptoms as well...
tagesspiegel.de/berlin/jetzt-2…
3 days ago, the same #Berlin hospital informed about some cases of #B117.
They had discovered them on Jan14, already:
-3 Patients
-no travel history (local transmission likely)
-no known source

"We brought this #Outbreak under control."
🙄
#B117& control?
berlin.de/aktuelles/berl… Image
The regional outbreak of #B117 seems to have entered #Oslo:

Earlier low infection numbers are gone.
Nursing homes see massive outbreaks
(150 infected, 40 new cases in the last 24 hours)

"This is different from the virus we had under control, before"
nrk.no/norge/flere-st…
Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) had warned that their house had seen

"several #COVID19 outbreaks in recent days",
seemingly more aggressive than previous outbreaks.

They also mentioned it might be that #B117 had entered the hospital...
klinikum-bayreuth.de/aktuell/news/a… Image
(🙅‍♂️Omit reading these details.
They´re too complicated,
don´t add to your understanding,
and may cause some useless infuriation

It´s basically: Health authority admitting there had been a #B117 case arlier, but "~the Bayreuth hospital story is fake news")
nordbayern.de/region/pegnitz…
As it turns out,
#Bayreuth hospital has very good reason to believe their suspiciously aggressive outbreaks might actually be #B117:

One #COVID19 patient they treated was a truck driver who had returned from #UK 🚛🇬🇧and fell ill...
(sequencing is pending)
br.de/nachrichten/ba… Image
Becoming #COVID19 "positive" after ⏰14 days in quarantine and 2 "negative" tests✅✅,
In a country that had virtually no sources of infection...
😕
-Variant not yet clear
#NewZealand

The #COVID19 case in #NewZealand had successfully passed quarantine✅
so she thought nothing special about her "light muscle pains", she developped 2 days after being released.

She visited 30 locations, before she became sceptical and got herself tested❌
nzherald.co.nz/nz/coronavirus…
News from #Faroe Islands.
It has something to do with "#B117".

The rest is up to your imagination.

yes, this is one language I don´t speak, so I threw it into an auto-translator.
I´m slightly confused about the last paragraph...🤔
news.fo/bretska-frabri… Image
#Norway´s Health Authority has found 17 cases of #B117, now (~250 more samples pending).

No cases were found outside the outbreak in Nordre Folle, so far.
"But it will come", according to FHI´s Director...
nrk.no/osloogviken/si…
😣here we go...:

21:02h "Suspicious outbreaks of infection in Oslo"

#Norway´s Health Directorate fears #SARSCoV2 variant outbreaks in #Oslo.
"Some outbreaks are suspicious, because there are many cases in a short period of time"
nrk.no/nyheter/__mist…
Due to the "unclear situation",
the #Lockdown area around #Norway´s #B117 outbreak will be expanded.

Further 15 communities will be "shut down".
They actively asked to be included, to avoid influx of possibly infected visitors/customers from the outbreak.
helsedirektoratet.no/tema/beredskap… Image
Another urgent measure was just announced by #Norway´s Health Minister.
It is supposed to solve the #polkø problem.

(Many people made fun of it.
But it seems to be a serious issue.
😔
No, they´re not queuing for a #COVID19 test...)
Vinmono(pol)et (kø=queue) polkø

"We´ll revise our decision and reopen the Vinmonopolet liquor stores in the #Lockdown area.
The sudden cut off from alcohol supply can expose people with severe alcohol dependence to health risks"
(Norway´s Health Minister)
direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/n…
😵#B1351
When I said there was no other source of infection, it was sooooo "last wave".

Those new variants have a new set of skills.

Like infecting people who are "perfectly isolated" from each other. Even to #NewZealand standards.
#QuarantineHotel
🪄🌬️
Seeing the transmission in New Zealand´s #Quarantine,
our "best we can do" approach seems vastly inappropriate:

#Berlin:
~1.500 "quarantined" staff from a hospital with confirmed #B117 outbreak commute home to their (not quarantined) families every day...
#Hamburg:
After 21 employees were tested #COVID19 "positive", an entire shift at Airbus
(500 employees, from 2 hangars,
with "potential contact in locker rooms, etc.")

goes into "voluntary quarantine at home"👨‍👩‍👧‍👦

(Variant not identified yet)
ndr.de/nachrichten/ha…
The #B117 outbreak in #Norway has grown to 25 detected infections, so far.

(but they're not finished with the 300 samples that might be related to this outbreak, yet...)

"Authorities think it started around Christmas".
nrk.no/osloogviken/on…
A nursing home in Southern #Germany found 23 residents & staff to be #COVID19 "positive".

Good news: all are well, no symptoms.😊
And for 4 of them it's already the second time...😲

(possible #reinfection,
first time was April~May 2020)
gea.de/reutlingen_art…
#Norway:
"At 16:20 I received the call that we have 40 new cases of the English variant of the coronavirus,"
says head of Nordre Follo municipality.

It´s 65 #B117 cases in that town, now.
They say it´s likely all positive tests there might be the variant.
nrk.no/osloogviken/ha… Image
This shows occupation of Tokyo´s #COVID19 Intensive Care Units from November 2020 (31%) to today (107%)

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/c… Image
As #Japan´s hospitals became overcrowded,
some had to turn away "non-citical" #COVID19 patients.

(Starting November 2020,
rapidly increasing this January...)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
"I was advised to be hospitalized but I refused,
to give priority to those who are more ill..."

This is how the impressive story of a single Tokyo mum and her fight against #COVID19 at home starts.

She was released from hospital, yesterday.
(her story):
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
Refusing to go to hospital.
Thinking ´the ambulance will surely be needed elsewhere´
Trying not to bother others...😔
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Hanover, #Germany:

another #Reinfection,
after 6 weeks (!)

first time: #COVID19, November 27
second time: #B117, January 11

(~90 contacts at kindergartens, elementary school quarantined for "*at least* 14 days")
ndr.de/nachrichten/ni…
It should have been the "all clear",
after hospitals in #Nordfriesland had been closed for 10 days, due to large #COVID19 outbreaks...

But when the 1.200 staff were tested again, they found 21 new cases.
"We´re completely mystified"
😕
(no variant known)
nordfriesland.de/Kreis-Verwaltu… Image
In #Denmark🇩🇰, #B117 seems to be taking up an ever larger part of infections:

Week 49: 0.2%
50: 0.5%
51: 0.9%
52: 1.9%
53: 2.9%
01: 4%
02: 7.4% (219 cases)
03: ~12,1% (99 cases, not final)

Overall, #COVID19 case numbers in DK are still decreasing.
tvmidtvest.dk/midt-og-vestjy…
🇩🇰Denmark´s #B117 proportion,
with graphics
and a database-link:
Busy day in Nordre Follo, at the center of #Norway´s #B117 outbreak.

They´ve been able to connect the last 40 #B117 cases to:
the nursing home
a health center
a kindergarten
an elementary school

They still don´t know where it started.
Multiple imports?
nordrefollo.kommune.no/nyheter/2021/j…
#Norway´s health authority has sequenced 245 (old) #COVID19 cases´ samples around the Nordre Follo outbreak, so far.
(150 to go)
65 were the #B117 variant.
🧪🧬🧑‍🔬
What they can say:
"They have some connection to 6 other communities"...
aftenposten.no/norge/i/qAv7JE…
#Norway´s health authorities found the case of a nursing home employee in #Oslo.
He was the first in a #COVID19 outbreak at his Oslo workplace, Jan 6.
He had some contact to Nordre Follo,
so they sequenced the old samples...
all #B117.
nrk.no/osloogviken/ko…
#Switzerland´s National #COVID19 Science Task Force has a new situation report out.
Here´s one key finding:

#B117 was somewhere around ~10%,
last week.
sciencetaskforce.ch/nextstrain-phy… Image
"Currently, it looks like🇨🇭infections are going down.
But if absolute #B117 case numbers keep increasing,
case numbers will soon start to rise again,

even if we KEEP our current measures UNCHANGED.

At the moment🇨🇭#B117 cases are doubling every week‼️"
sciencetaskforce.ch/wissenschaftli… Image
Oh, this is so tempting...
I nearly fell for it.

Only a few dark red spots are left.
Many are below "100" (7 day incidence).
Some have already broken the "magical 50" barrier, when everything was promised to be fine again...
in earlier days, before #B117.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
A week ago, when Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) became wary "we think some variant may be circulating- we have many outbreaks",
local authorities weren´t too convinced.

Then, the first 30 samples were sequenced:
11 are #B117.

2 Hospitals in #Lockdown,
now.
klinikum-bayreuth.de/aktuell/news/a… Image
And still, #Bayreuth authorities aren´t too worried.

There´s no idea, how the cases may have contracted #B117.
And:
"we´ll treat contacts of #B117 cases as we treat all contacts of #COVID19 cases.
There´ll be no quarantine for secondary contacts"...
🤷
bayreuther-tagblatt.de/nachrichten_me… Image
#Portugal
This evening,
the #Oxygen supply at Sintra hospital couldn't keep up with the high demand of 360 #COVID19 patients.
It didn't "collapse", but it seems the flow wasn't enough => some patients evacuated.
ICU is okay (takes relatively little O2).
As sequencing is incredibly slow, nobody can determine the current situation.
Today, the #Netherlands do know what it was 3 weeks ago:
#B117 had a share of 8.6%.

"And last week, we guess, it was every THIRD case"

And #B117 reproduced with a factor R~1,27
rivm.nl/nieuws/Britse-… Image
😴missing the bus...

There was a #COVID19 case, in a🇳🇱physiotherapy setting, on Jan6.

Later it turned out there had been some travel to South Africa.
3 weeks later, sequencing says:
18 cases are connected, they all were the #501V2 variant.
🚌💨 🏃
nos.nl/artikel/236609…
Seven more communities in #Norway fear current #COVID19 cases might be carrying #B117,
as they have links to Nordre Follo.

Outside current Lockdown area:
Fredrikstad
Modum
Øvre Eiker
Sigdal
Nesodden (maybe)

already in #Lockdown area:
Frogn
Våler

nettavisen.no/nyheter/innenr…
#Cluster5 is back.
(maybe)

The #SARSCoV2 variant that spread among minks, so millions of them were culled in Denmark.
And the entire region of North Jutland was closed down.

It was believed it had gone extinct

2 (old) cases have been found in Germany
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
They said they´d reopen elementary #schools on monday (because ~´children don´t transmit infections much´)

Only minutes before their press conference
news came in:
There´s a massive outbreak
(with some #SARSCoV2 variant)
at a kindergarten in Freiburg.

Announcement is postponed. Image
A shock for #France.
All their current measures,
even the 12 hour curfew, every day...

They don´t work anymore.

Is it because schools reopened (Jan4),
or everyone is working again,
or effect of new #SARSCoV2 variants?

They urgently try to find out, now.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
Yesterday, hospitals of #Paris region said they believe #B117 might have a share of 9.4%, there.
Today, a clear statement followed:

"It seems, the way we manage this right now, the current ascending plateau of infections will become an exponential curve."
franceinter.fr/societe/si-on-… Image
Authorities in The #Netherlands claim they have found the contacts of the ´South Africa´ variant #501V2 case at a physiotherapy centre.
(First symptoms January 6, but only now discovered)...

They all will get tested, now.
All 350 contacts.
🙄
rijnmond.nl/nieuws/203412/…
A large outbreak of #COVID19 stopped a construction site in Oslo (#Norway).

34 are infected, so far.
Some of the workers reside in Nordre Follo (the current #B117 hotspot)...
"Almost everyone (146 workers) involved in the project is in quarantine".🚧👷‍♂️🏗️
aftenposten.no/oslo/i/mBLWmq/…
A school in Schaffhausen (#Switzerland) has closed.
There´s a #COVID19 (some variant) case.

"This closure is not a quarantine...
it´s just to reassure the parents and the worried teachers and students."

😏ookayyy... whatever you´d like to name it.
stadt-schaffhausen.ch/News.316.0.htm… Image
Seems, the kindergarten in Freiburg (#Germany) realized first #COVID19 cases 2 weeks ago.🙄

That didn´t stop the state´s idea of opening up more...
it was just today´s result "it´s caused by some #SARSCoV2 variant" that blew it all up
😕
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
2 days ago,
#Portugal mentioned:
"We still have beds available. The real problem is personnel."

Over 22.000 nurses and doctors have been infected, so far.
More than 10.000 are not able to work, at the moment.

Transferring patients might be an option...
publico.pt/2021/01/25/soc…
Yesterday, the community of Torres Vedras asked Portugal´s foreign minister for urgent help.
As there are 8 large clusters in the city, the hospital is overrun.

The mayor was now pleading for 5 doctors and 10 nurses from abroad. They would pay for them...
Today, the Mayor of Torres Vedras received answers from doctors from Brazil, Angola, Venezuela...

He was still waiting for a reaction from #Portugal´s foreign minister.

And they just had another nursing home outbreak this afternoon.
tsf.pt/portugal/socie…
Also wednesday, a small group of medics from #Germany did some reconnaissance at #Sintra hospital.
(The one that had too many patients for their oxygen supply).
It was an "informal" mission

But german embassy just confirmed:
there´s talks with #Portugal.
publico.pt/2021/01/27/soc…
Unreal ´déjà vu´
for #NewZealand, yesterday:

ONCE AGAIN, reports came in
that someone had been released from a quarantine hotel,
after 2 weeks
and 2 "negative" tests...

and then turned out to be "positive".

But maybe they were "false positive"?
Image
No.😯
After more tests, it became clear:

Those weren´t "residual artefacts of earlier infections"...
the 2 persons who had just been cleared & released from #NewZealand´s #quarantine were carrying a FRESH infection

with the ´South Africa´ variant.
#501V2
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
After #NewZealand´s first "post-quarantine infection"
people´s trust had already degraded.

🤨🤚🛑
stuff.co.nz/national/healt… Image
The #NewZealand #Quarantine hotel that turned out to actually spread #501V2 infections is now closed for new entries.

And those who already left
are now asked to isolate themselves...

wherever they may be
(some have travelled abroad).
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
The fate of a not so successfull #SARSCoV2 variant:

Denmark kept monitoring the "Mink" mutated variant.
After the large outbreak in late summer, it faded away.
In week 1/2021 they sequenced 18% of all #COVID19 cases.
The mink variant had disappeared.
🦖☄️
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
After a kindergarten in Freiburg,
#Germany´s southwest state has now found #B117 in a 85 year old senior in #Stuttgart.

He should have been safe and sound in his nursing home, with no travel contacts.

"It seems #B117 is already circulating, here..."
This thread started one year ago.

And I still use this collection of what we did in 2009.
I´d say: we´ve changed a lot since then...
our plan isn´t any better,
but we´re a lot crazier, more confused, now.🙄
I thought about cutting off this thread
and start new topic related sub-threats instead.
Just to arrange stuff more neatly

But where should I file this next one?
Authorities say
"the situation is so incredibly complex",
they just fenced a whole area in.
🤦Okay, thread goes on...
-foreign workers
-large construction site
-living in tight conditions
-one came from UK
-quarantine breaker
-one critically ill now
-youth center on same site
-massive variant outbreak
-´risk of fleeing quarantinees´
-FENCE
-South #Germany, Schelklingen
schwaebische.de/landkreis/alb-…
~"We knew the #SARSCoV2 variants were imminent.
But we hoped we had more time (to have schools open for a while)
At the #Freiburg kindergarten, 18 cases are now confirmed as ´South Africa´ variant

Sequencing shows: 2-3% of all cases are a variant already"
#BadenWürttemberg
"The idea to gradually reopen schools has become obsolete.

We will make an effort to try sequencing EVERY single positive #COVID19 case, to see how far the variant has spread.

Schools will stay open for children of essential workers."
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Norway´s #B117 hotspot Nordre Follo kept schools open for children of essential workers.

Yesterday it started: 4
this morning 7
this afternoon 15
#COVID19 cases at a primary school.

"We believe it´s #B117"
Hundreds of essential workers quarantined, now.
oavis.no/korona-koronav…
A new "real time" analysis (s-gap detection) enables #Portugal to get a better picture of the spread of ´UK´ variant #B117:

In & around #Lisbon, it has a share of 50%, already.
(In oher places ´just´ 30%...)
publico.pt/2021/01/28/cie…
And finally today,
#Portugal authorizes recruiting nurses and doctors from abroad.

They will be needed to help in the massive #COVID19 waves.
(Standard contract length may be up to 1 year).
lusa.pt/article/Xa7hVv…
#Ireland´s latest NPHET meeting brings an insight into
how #B117 reacts.

And what measures will be needed
for how long
to keep it from getting out of hand...
twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
According to NPHET
"#Ireland´s population has worked incredibly hard
to bring down transmissions".

Not only that-
as it has so little chance to transmit, they´ve also slowed progress of #B117.
It stands at 63%, now.

It will become dominant, eventually.
But it will happen slower Image
#Ireland has this nifty key indicator of
"how many contacts did a #COVID19 case have".

What not to do: open things up, so people have ~4-5 contacts again (December, that provoked the outbreak)

What works to slow down #B117:
reduce contacts to ~2 Image
With the CURRENT measures, #Ireland manages an R of ~0.4-0.7

"If we can keep this up
- cases will continue to drop (slowly)
- hospitals will see less strain (in the long term)
- by the end of February we could be where we were at the beginning of December"

"IF WE KEEP THIS UP" Image
"We are maintaining an extraordinary effort...
we need to maintain full pressure for several more weeks,

to give ourselves strategic options for the future"

(🤔Open up = give it out of hands?)

Link to entire NPHET latest slide-set:
assets.gov.ie/121280/f9981ed… Image
"Full pressure for several more weeks"
means for #Ireland:
#LEVEL5 restrictions will be in place
until March (for now).
gov.ie/en/publication… Image
It had been eerily quiet
around the #COVID19 variant outbreak among construction workers in south #Germany...

must have been, because everyone was just too busy testing all the contacts.

Over 1.000, so far.
😕
And multiple other clusters, now...
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
I'd rather have a system, where
a "negative" #COVID19 test would be valid as a one-day-travel pass on public transport,

and a "positive" test would earn you 14 days free delivery of your favorite food to your home address...
🚧🚧🚧🚧🚧🛂🚧🚧🚧🚧🚧
A swiss journalist reports on Native American #Winnebago tribe.

Their culture is defined by the elders.
Only 100 elders still speak their traditional language.

#COVID19 is a real threat.
In #Portugal, one #COVID19 indicator is the number of ambulances queuing at hospitals.
The largest line has now decreased from 46 to 6 ambulances waiting.
🚑🚑🚑
But that's due to a new pre-screening, turning people away who are not eligible for treatment
lusa.pt/article/WJEpRc…
Despite the recent outbreaks of #B117, #Norway´s overall #COVID19 test positivity rate has declined to as low as 0.8%
fhi.no/sv/smittsomme-… Image
It is still not clear, what effect #B117 infections will have, if they become dominant, and there´s no clear picture, where they have already spread...
but #Norway intends to ease restrictions in the Lockdown area around Nordre Follo, soon.
nrk.no/norge/regjerin… Image
Norway´s Education Minister:
"Being able to attend kindergarten and school is important both for play, learning and for countering loneliness and isolation,"
so communities in #B117 Lockdown may decide whether they return to full presence school classes
🙄
Norway´s Minister of Children and Family Affairs:
"I am glad that we can make everyday life (in the #B117 Lockdown area) a little easier.
For people under the age of 20, we open football training, handball or choir practice again."

(🤔 choir practice?...)
regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/vid…
In Norway´s view
"The main problem is import of cases", so #Norway has locked their borders.

One last loophole is closed, now:
"As falsified attestations of earlier #COVID19 infections might be presented at the border, this will no longer be accepted as an entry waiver" Image
2 days ago, #Norway´s Health Directorate issued a warning #B117 outlook:

"particularly relevant considering #Oslo´s situation right now where we see declining infection rates:
⚠️
Cases may seem to go down.
But it may become challenging 2 weeks later"
...
helsedirektoratet.no/tema/beredskap… Image
"Villsmitte"
("wild infections" - nobody knows where they came from)

#Oslo has 3 of them
(they are all #B117 variants)
😕

(p.s.: one of my favorite 🇳🇴words is still: Nettbrett)
nrk.no/nyheter/tre-ti…
(according to news)
The #Netherlands´ Outbreak Management Team OMT advises the dutch government to reopen primary schools and childcare.
🥳/😣
The OMT seems to be split up - some members were against this advise.
"This poses a real risk"
nos.nl/artikel/236661…
Last night,
#Portugal´s airforce performed a #COVID19 medevac flight.

They transferred 3 critical ICU patients.
They were brought FROM the capital region #Lisbon TO the island of #Madeira.

Beds on the mainland are full.
dn.pt/sociedade/doen…
#Portugal´s INSA is very busy, so they just retweet articles of interviews they gave:

"at the moment #B117 has a share of ~35-40%.
That might be 65% in ~3 weeks"

"It has a weekly growth rate of ~90%"
(its share doubles nearly every week)
Some good news from #Portugal:
the hospital of Amadora (where O2 pressure wasn´t enough to support all ~360 #COVID19 patients, last tuesday)
has a backup oxygen tank, now.

Sintra hospital will also get one.
facebook.com/hospitalfernan… Image
#Japan´s military is responding to an Okinawa island, where more than 100 #COVID19 infections happened in 4 days, affecting many nursing home residents.

They will get instructions from "veterans" who were also deployed to the Diamond Princess🛳️in 2020.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
#Berlin´s hospital says they
"have the #B117 outbreak under control".
After one week and 30 cases, the infection chain has been identified and stopped.
"Work quarantine" for medical staff will continue (if they had potential contact)...
rbb24.de/panorama/thema…
Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) has ~23 cases of #B117.
While they had no overview of the ´diffuse infections´, they started to ease "working quarantine" rules "pragmatically":

-use of public transport ✅😷(FFP2 mask)
-staff´s children back to kindergarten✅
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
#Bayreuth citizens aren´t too convinced the "working quarantine" is safe enough for #B117.

Hospital personnel is refused at petrol stations, their children isolated at kindergarten, neighbors are worried when bumping into them at home...

fear?🤷caution?
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
One case,
the first after
10 months

West #Australia
Twitter is buzzing with tweets like this,
right now
🧬💥💪😤
😷✅
"The guard was working on the same floor as a positive ´UK´variant case"

His household contacts have tested ´negative´.
However, we can expect that they will become positive"

"Dramatic. Action. Immediately.
That´s the (Brisbane) model we´re following..."
🚧🤚🚧
Dramatic. Reaction. Immediately.
Brisbane / Queensland know their stuff...
#WesternAustralia #COVID19
Meanwhile in #Germany... Image
Apparently,
a german minister noted that with the new virus variants the old "incidence 50" limit might not be enough.
Maybe the #Lockdown would have to be extended beyond February...
(#ZeroCovid is not an official policy,
actually, there´s no target set)
zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
With a german standard of "incidence 50"
(50 cases / 100.000 inhabitants per week)
there would be
tracing for ~900 such cases,
now,
in Perth
Antwerp´s University Hospital (#Belgium) has a mobile test team.
They ride around in their "coBUSters" bus, visiting schools and taking kids´ PCR tests.

They´ve been doing screenings and interventions in #COVID19 outbreaks,
for a couple of weeks, now...
uza.be/mobiel-testteam Image
First results of #Belgium´s mobile testing at schools:

~"We find #COVID19 infections mainly in the 5-12 year olds. They don´t show much symptoms.

But when we traced their contacts, we found:
they infect their families.
#Schools are infection sources."
🤔
gva.be/cnt/dmf2021012…
🤦
The easing of Norway´s #B117 Lockdown might be obsolete.

4 communities around Nordre Follo now have outbreaks.
Infections seem to have spread from an ice rink hall.
There are already 11 cases, with secondary contacts infected.

400 are quarantined, now
nrk.no/osloogviken/mu…
It doesn´t need a fancy #B117 variant...
It seems some outbreaks in #Norway´s Nordre Follo were caused by the "traditional" #SARSCoV2 virus.

One primary school (Tårnåsen school) has 34 cases:
19 students
11 close contacts
4 staff
(all the "old" variant)
nordrefollo.kommune.no/informasjon-om… Image
#Portugal´s intensive care units treat 858 patients, today.
That´s the highest number ever.

The registered number of #COVID19 cases is now 16 times higher than it had been during the first wave, in March/April last year...
ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/723028/…
"This variant spares no-one"

The childrens´ infectiology unit in Lisbon has #COVID19 patients of age 12 days to 17 years.
And "it´s not just precautionary", as it was in the first wave.

They carry very high viral loads (Ct ~9-10)!
😯
publico.pt/2021/01/30/cie…
#Austria has proposed to take some patients from #Portugal for treatment.
Image
Seems the "informal reconaissance" a few days ago has now turned into an official support mission:
Military medics from #Germany will be on their way to #Portugal, next week.
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
"Good news" for children, parents and teachers🙄
in the #Netherlands:

Elementary schools and kindergartens will open again on February 8.

There will be tests for teachers.
And if one kid gets #COVID19, the whole class will be quarantined for 5 days.
nos.nl/artikel/236680…
(Part of) the #Netherlands´ idea is:
-opening primary #schools and kindergartens will bring "disadvantages" (= infections will rise)

-this could be compensated, if all other measures (including the ´not so popular´ curfew) would stay in force

(hmmmn,🤨interesting experiment...) Image
And then, "inside sources" in the #Netherlands claim

"If case numbers keep on falling,
the (´not so popular´) curfew might be lifted on February 10."

That´s 2 days after schools reopened.

(🙄I´d like to have independent observers for this experiment...)
nos.nl/artikel/236683…
Reasoning for the call to ease more restrictions seems to be: "Case numbers in the #Netherlands are as low as October 1!"

(well,...
they´re also ~as low/high as they were on December 1😐,
the day the current wave set in...🙄)
nos.nl/artikel/236675… Image
Meanwhile in #Australia:
No new cases in #Perth over night.

But this is expected to change:
the "index case" (guardian at quarantine hotel) has just been confirmed to carry #B117.
And ~60 close contacts are identified...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
A maskless man stood outside a supermarket in Western #Australia´s #Lockdown area. He was offered a free mask from police.

He refused it.

📰"The man has been arrested, charged and denied bail after refusing to wear a protective face mask."🧑‍⚖️
7news.com.au/news/wa/wa-cov…
In a press conference,
#Oslo´s Health Councillor just announced:

"Oslo has control over #B117."

Nearly all 61 cases have been traced and connected.
Only for 6 cases, tracing has not been completed, yet.
nrk.no/osloogviken/os…
"#Oslo can´t continue the strict measures we had last week just for precaution. The challenge will be to keep infection numbers down while gradually & controlled reopening our city.
Infection numbers and knowledge of #B117 determine how fast it will go"
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad…
Frome tomorrow on,

#Oslo will have less distancing & cohorting at schools.
(Individual) sports will open for young children, again.
School swimming will resume.
etc.
(Autotranslated)
Image
Meanwhile in Halden (#Norway), near Oslo:
An outbreak at the local ice hall happened during "sports activities / ice hockey for the children".

65 are infected, one is already known as being a #B117 case.

"We should never have done it" (the kids´ sports)
nrk.no/norge/nakstad_…
Sarpsborg (#Norway) also has some suspected #B117 cases, who were at the "Comet"´s ice hockey training in the Halden ice hall.

They also have 15 further local #B117 cases/suspects.
Seems they´re cautious, but not too worried
as they "have a good overview"
sarpsborg.com/aktuelt/-har-g… Image
"We followed the guidelines that apply to children and amateur sports"
(Ice Hockey Club Halden, Norway)

"~They did their best.
No one was able to predict how contagious this virus really is...."
(Mayor of Halden)
#Norway #B117
nrk.no/osloogviken/sm…
(Most of) #Portugal may have already passed the peak of infections.

It´s the area around Lisbon, with its infections ´at brutally high levels´, that keeps the country´s average from falling.

(The yellow curve is #Lisbon. It is dipping every monday)
publico.pt/2021/02/01/soc… Image
Interestingly

"5 days after #Portugal´s schools were closed, the incidence in age groups 6-12 & 13-17 years began to fall at national level.

The closure of schools was decisive..."
Image
#Norway´s Health Minister:

"If we had a #ZeroCovid policy, we would have had to live in a regime that none of us had tolerated.

It is very difficult to find a balance.
And we may not yet have the full answer when it comes to the new virus variant,..."
nrk.no/norge/hoie_-_-…
For #Norway´s Halden community
it´s not difficult to find an answer to their #B117 ice hockey outbreak:

19 school classes (together with staff and families) are quarantined.
So schools will close alltogether.
halden.kommune.no/aktuelt/rodt-n… Image
A rare view into the traces of #COVID19 in #France´s sewage water:

Paris↘️
Lille⬇️
Marseille↗️
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
"There may be a trend, but we are at a very high level - far above March´s ´deconfinement´ levels.
It´s more like the levels we had back in September"
ImageImageImage
They know it.
They know what is going to happen.

So why do the #Netherlands open primary schools and "think about" further schools?
Why do they promise to "eliminate the curfew, if case numbers keep falling"?
🙄
Is it to say
"We tried - and it sadly didn´t work"?
Is it a show?
The #Netherlands know: before X-mas, teenagers got infected by other teens and "sometimes" infected their families. That went down a lot, with the holidays/lockdown.

After the festive period is over, it´s the adults, who get infected at work, now...
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
The #Netherlands found,
primary school students, infected with #B117,
might be much more likely to spread infections to their families
and they seem to spread it faster, than with the old variant.
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
And there´s this one line of text,
in that recent report to the #Netherlands´ House of Representatives.

It just says:
"We think, last week ~HALF OF ALL NEW infections in NL were the ´UK´ variant #B117."

It GREW at a reproduction rate of R~"1.27"
😯
rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijks… Image
What´s the issue ?
#COVID19 numbers in the #Netherlands peaked on December 20, with ~13.000 new cases, that day.
Yesterday, it was a mere 3.300 new cases - that´s certainly not rising, is it ?????
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Here´s the issue.

-in week 2, 19.8% of new cases in the #Netherlands had been #B117
-In week 4, ~50% of new cases were the #B117 variant. It grows with R~1.27
-while the ´old´ variant descends deceptively

🤔If that curve stops falling ~this week...🤨
😣oh.
#RIVM (#Netherlands´ disease center)
just released their official guesstimate:

"Last week, #B117 made up ~2 thirds (66%) of new cases in NL"

Falling case numbers are a result of
less people getting tested.
Positivity rate already stagnates.😳
🧬🏁
rivm.nl/nieuws/nieuwe-… Image
Press conference in the #Netherlands:
⚠
"The third wave is inevitably upon us."

"If there was no #B117, more easing would be possible.
But the 'UK' variant is spreading at tremendous speed"

"With an R-value of almost 1.3, it doubles nearly every week"
The "doubling every week" isn't really what official #RIVM numbers suggested.
But anyway:
#Netherlands' primary schools will open, next week.
Because: "adults get infected by adults - and mostly not by children"...
😕
Woooow - a gamechanger !!!

#COVID19 selftests will be made legal in #Germany, from tomorrow!
(okay, there are no certified devices for now)

That'd change my risk assessments for a lot of large-scale projects from "utterly stupid idea" to "doable"!
Right now,
a team of 26 military medics (6 doctors) from #Germany is on its way to #Portugal.

They also bring equipment (~40 ventilators, 150 perfusors etc) and will support a Lisbon hospital.

It's a long-term engagement:
Replacement comes after 3 weeks.
It's a long-term challenge for #Portugal...
Daily case numbers are about to peak - but the patients' influx to hospitals doesn't seem to stop.

Again, 3 intensive care patients will be transferred to #Madeira, tonight.

"ICUs on the continent are full".
The Amadora-Sintra hospital near Lisbon has asked CODU coordination center to stop sending them respiratory patients.

After a calm phase, suddenly a wave of new #COVID19 patients comes in.
They are overwhelmed at the moment...
(other treatment continues)
#Portugal´s #COVID19 pressure on hospitals is especially high in the #Lisbon region, now.

To immediately relieve pressure from Amadora-Sintra hospital, 20 (stabilized) patients are transferred to hospitals in #Porto, in the North.
tvi24.iol.pt/sociedade/sao-…
😯
Until now, it was officially no big deal in #Germany, if contacts of #COVID19 cases kept on working
-as long as they followed basic hygiene
-their job was essential for the state (critical infrastructure)

Now:"DO NOT apply to contacts of Variant cases"
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
For Healthcare Workers, #Germany´s new RKI rule would mean:
if they were contacts of a suspected #SARSCoV2 variant case, the former practise of putting them in "work quarantine" would now have to be ended.

good plan🤔...or, maybe...
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) has first results of their mass screening:
Yes, their outbreak is actually caused by #B117.
(9 cases sequenced as such, more expected.)

Since they have no clue where it came from, they had all 3.300 staff in "work quarantine".
klinikum-bayreuth.de/aktuell/news/a… Image
According to #Germany´s new RKI rules, all 3.300 staff at Bayreuth´s hospital would have to be quarantined, with NO work - however important it might be...

🤨who in the world would ever really do this? China?

oh.
wait....
😧
The video won´t play.
But that still picture tells the story.
#Australia #VIC #Melbourne #COVID19
here we go again...
facebook.com/7NEWSMelbourne… Image
#Melbourne
"Earlier in the day, there was confirmed transmission of the ´UK´ variant #B117 between hotel quarantine guests."

“We Victorians know what to do, and we have proven, as state, very successful at managing these sorts of #outbreak.”
🧬🤛😷
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
#Victoria´s Premier:

“This is one case. There’s no need for people to panic. There’s no need for people to be alarmed."

And, sorry: no return to work 🤷
#Melbourne #Outbreak #B117
The ´working assumption´ is that

"the viral load of the family was so high, the virus had travelled through the hotel just by the family opening the door..."

😱🌬️🚪
abc.net.au/news/2021-02-0…
#Melbourne #Outbreak #B117
The working theory is:

"The man caught the virus while working in hotel quarantine,😷✔
despite not breaching virus control protocols."
😯
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
While the #Melbourne outbreak has the entire state of Victoria stuck at "max. 50% should be back to the workplace",

other "business" goes on as usual.
(admittedly, it´d be ridiculous to have only 50% of workers, there)
Quite some contrast in reactions from other states to Melbourne´s #COVID19 outbreak:

NSW does it retro-style:
-temperature screening 🌡️
-and questionnaire 📃
🙄🤣
(like in those times before we had rapid tests...)
Queensland doesn´t bother rapid tests either.
They stick to their
"Dramatic. Action. Immediately."
approach:

Anyone who had been to #Melbourne is asked to have a (PCR) test and isolate until results are in.
The problem with "Dramatic. Action. Immediately." is:

You get zero results.
Nothing happens.

And you can´t prove it´s because of your actions.
🤷 #Perth
#Perth will open up.
Gradually, for the most.

but
"The South-West will return to pre-lockdown conditions immediately, tomorrow"

😢(sigh... I'm stuck in the South-West, but wrong country)
#Sweden can decide:
Keep restrictions - numbers will continue to go down.

Ease a little - numbers will stay at a high level.

Have more contacts again - a 3rd wave, stronger than before. "And it could start relatively soon, maybe in a few weeks or so."
svt.se/nyheter/inrike…
#Sweden´s calculations assume
-a variant similar to #B117,
-it was introduced in November
-it started with 150 cases, back then

Scenario 0:
Restrictions stay the same.

Restrictions would suppress even the variant - it would show "no effect".
Everything will be fine, soon... Image
#Sweden´s scenario 1:
Restrictions ease a little,
so contacts go back to the level of "cautiousness" they had before Christmas.

The variant rises slowly.
And the "old COVID" will fall slower.
Overall #COVID19 cases will not go down further.

A long, stressfull time for hospitals Image
#Sweden´s scenario 2:
Contacts rise to a "not so careful" level again.

The new variant rises faster (green)
And the "Old variant" goes up again, too (blue)
Another wave of #COVID19 infections. Image
#Sweden´s models do not take vaccinations into account.

"The model calculations go over the next 3 months.
Vaccinations are not expected to have any observable effect in this period".

Here´s the link to their entire presentation:
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/…
P.S.:
The model calculations above are optimistic.
They are for a "new variant" that has an increased transmission rate of just +30%.

Here´s #Sweden´s scenario 1 ("we want a bit more freedom and we promise we´ll be careful") again.
With a transmission rate of +50%
(like ~#B117): Image
#Denmark has also been doing some calculations, today.
They estimate,
their current measures result in good suppression of "traditional" #COVID19 variants.

But the "Contact-number" (Reproduction number R) for #B117 in Denmark is currently R~1.14
It grows.
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Austria's #Tyrol has a problem.

No one really knows how it got there.
(although there's gossip)

It's a large cluster of #B1351, the 'South Africa' variant.
The biggest problem seems to be: their denial to accept this is a real issue, beyond local clique.
kurier.at/amp/chronik/oe…
A local virologist had tried to raise the alarm about #Tyrol's suspiciously emerging #B1351 cluster...
That was met with repulse from authorities.

So she took to the press.

Authorities settled down to "observe developments"😴

Swiss press is worried...
“J'ai l'impression que le Tyrol a évidemment conscience que la situation est grave"

Belgian press reports on #Austria's Health Minister's view that isolating the region wouldn't be necessary, as "they're aware of the situation".

I doubt Austria is aware.
Meanwhile,
Singapore's "Straits Times" is reporting on #Austria's inactivity regarding their Tyrolean #B1351 cluster...

Austria still doesn't seem to realize: the world is watching !
😳
Pakistan ?!

Okay.
Maybe not so relevant for local politicians in #Tyrol...

But they'd be really in the soup if press in neighboring Germany jumps on the story...
😖d'oh...

Germany's press had already reported that #Austria was "considering to isolate the #Tyrol cluster region".

But now,
Austria's decision to merely "observe the situation" is starting to make its way into german headlines as "Ischgl 2.0" approach
rosenheim24.de/welt/news/tiro…
#Tyrol's special issue with Germany would be:

A new german ordinance on "Areas of Variant of Concern".

It prohibits transport of passengers from such areas to Germany / requires test and 10 day quarantine...

Even for daily commuters.

🚧🛂🚧✋🚧🚷🚧
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen…
There are several experts in Austria, arguing against isolation of #Tyrol:
One says
"Tyrol´s not an island - you cannot isolate the spread" 🤦

Another one says "#B1351 is certainly prevalent in other areas as well. Just look at Cologne (#Germany)"👍
tirol.orf.at/stories/308854…
While Austria´s Tyrol has been sequencing for a while,
#Germany is just about to get things going.

While sequencing retrospect samples of #Cologne they found a surprise:

52 cases of ´South Africa´ variant #B1351
114 cases of ´UK´ variant #B117
ksta.de/nrw/inzidenz-s…
Uh...
#Germany's RKI has just tried to give an overview of "#Variants of Concern".

It came out as a pile of unconsolidated, inconsistent and utterly confusing data (at least it reads like that to me...)
😣
The "timeline" in RKI's #Variant report isn't telling much.
The report says sample selection was heavily biased.

Other parts of the report say "data wasn't submitted in time", and evaluation methods were changed during the report period...
😕 Image
A (semi) useful map in the RKI #Variant report shows
how many cases of #B117 had been detected by labs, last week (up to Jan29).
It misses data ("not reported in time"),
but shows 2 hotspots:
-Flensburg (North, result of a big new year's eve party in Denmark)
-Hof (Czech border) Image
I have real doubt,
RKI´s #Variant report can be put to use at the moment.

A lot of data simply doesn´t match or is maybe outdated.
This is what #RKI says about #B117 cases
in the ENTIRE STATE of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW):

22 cases
from November 2020 until January 31/2021. Image
This is what one City alone (Cologne) reported for February 3:

137 cases of #B117.

(while RKI´s report says,
the entire state had 22 cases, 3 days earlier)
🤨
maybe let´s not use that RKI report to evaluate the current situation, okay?

stadt-koeln.de/politik-und-ve…
(via @NihalDemir) Image
Someone in the #Netherlands had an idea:

😏What if we divide #school classes into ´subgroups´?
And then make these subgroups sit 1.5m apart...
So if one kid is infected, we only need this one subgroup to quarantine...!!😁

🙄#SARSCoV2 is a bowling ball🎳?
nos.nl/artikel/236739…
We need standards on dealing with #Variants
In Ludwigshafen (#Germany), one #B117 case popped up.
The "residence" of that case was immediately put under lockdown,
leading to "mental meltdown" of one of the inhabitants.

They all had been infected before...
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
Due to 1 "#Variant" case, #Ludwigshafen´s Mayor now asked for permission to install a movement restriction for all of the city´s ~170.000 inhabitants.

Allowed radius: 15 km.

(🙄me, thinking about #Tyrol...)
ludwigshafen.de/buergernah/bue… Image
I stumbled upon news, that Košice (#Slovakia) has an extraordinary high rate of #B117 cases.
Not much more info, except that schools would be kept closed.

I looked for more info on local websites...

😯Košice´s mayor urges everyone to stay indoors.
kosice.sk/clanok/situaci…
2 weeks ago, 60% of #COVID19 cases in Košice hospital were #B117 cases. Today, it´s ~90%

"This explains, why it hits even the young so hard"

Their data:
+70% more infectious
+36% more fatal
age group of severe patients decreases constantly

at the moment
kosice.korzar.sme.sk/c/22590008/bri…
"The situation has never been so serious"
A 5th round of mass testing is organized, in #Košice.

The local steel works have installed a livecam, so everyone can see the waiting queue for their site´s test facility...
Image
Oh.
Someone in Tyrol (#Austria) thinks "Movement restrictions -like the ones they use in #Germany" - would maybe be helpful to bring #SARSCov2 variants under control, there...
Interestingly,
Ludwigshafen (#Germany) has just cancelled their 15km Movement restriction order.

"According to first test results, the one #SARSCoV2 variant case seems to have not spread further"
Cologne (#Germany) realizes: there might be trouble ahead...

237 new #COVID19 cases over night
(incidence rose from 75.9 to 91.3)
Reproduction factor is now R(t)~0.97

22 newly confirmed #B117 carriers, 3 with #B1351

(and it´s traditionally🥳time, soon)
stadt-koeln.de/politik-und-ve…
Carnival isn´t the only fear of #Cologne (that´s why they implimented a "max. 1 visitor at home" rule, now.

They´re clearly afraid of #Variant spread:
"even where it´s legal to meet in groups (at work): think about reducing group size and getting tested"
stadt-koeln.de/politik-und-ve… Image
This is basically #aerosol.

Typical particle size: 0.1 - 10 µm
the same as a #SARSCoV2 virus , or a droplet carrying it.

Go ahead,
stop it with your plexiglass screens...
#SaharanDust
4 weeks ago,
the #Marseille fire department🚒 found an alarming rise in #SARSCoV2 markers during their routine sewage water screenings.
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
5 days later,
a #Cluster of 23 cases (including one of the first #B117 cases in #France) was found in the city...
Image
After the #B117 cluster in January, #Marseille´s sewage water markers stayed on a plateau

but 3 days ago,
the Marseille fire department found an even higher surge in #SARSCoV2 markers.

There´s no sign of increase in tested cases/hospitalizations,
yet
😳
Image
🤔News coming in:

There´s a #B117 outbreak in a nursing home in Northern #Germany.

14 residents have been detected as carriers of the ´UK´ variant.

The thing is:
they all had received their second shot of Biontech/Pfizers´ #vaccine, ~2 weeks ago.
🤨
landkreis-osnabrueck.de/presse/presses… Image
Interesting handling of the #B117 outbreak in Northern Germany:
the nursing home´s entire staff is quarantined,
including their families(!)

for the staff, it´s a "work #quarantine": they are allowed to leave the house to work at the nursing home.
(🤔and the rest of the family?) Image
Western #Norway had been following the #outbreak near Oslo relatively relaxed. It was far away...
This has changed.

"The infection situation overall is not dramatic..."
but it´s not under control.

Bergen region is under #Lockdown, now:
bergen.kommune.no/hvaskjer/tema/… Image
~a week ago,
#Bergen (Norway) registered first cases of #B1351.

Until today, no common source has been found.
One "hotspot" is a workplace and close to a tram station: possibly many contacts.
Unrelated clusters of #B117.

(Potentially dangerous situation)
helsedirektoratet.no/tema/beredskap… Image
Together with Bergen, the (relatively) small town of #Ulvik has been a cause for the #Lockdown.

Its 14-day incidence rate stands at
6.944, today.

But it didn´t start 14 days ago.
It all happened much faster...
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
It was 10 days ago, that Ulvik´s first 2 cases were found.
Everyone was surprised:

it was in 2 returnees,
they had tested negative abroad
then tested negative in Norway
then quarantined for 10 days
and AFTER that
spread infections via kindergarten, school
vg.no/nyheter/innenr…
#Norway´s Ulvik is a relatively small town.
They are shocked to have 96 cases of #B117,
this evening.

They have a clear view of how the infections spread:
🔎
It was the children at #school & kindergarten.
They infected their parents and grandparents.🚸⚠️
ulvik.kommune.no/aktuelt/kjare-… Image
In the #Netherlands, many primary schools will not go open, today

"We really do this for the safety of the teachers and the students,"
"It's a shame, because we hoped that schools would open. It's pure force majeure."

It´s because of snow☃️
Not #B117🧬
nos.nl/artikel/236773…
Interesting:
Hannover Region (#Germany) analyzed
74 recent #COVID19 samples:
32 of them were #B117
(~40%)
(2 were other variants, yet unclear).

(That´s also the region where indications had been found of a very early #B117 case in November 2020)
deister-echo.de/anteil-der-vir…
#Hannover Region, also interesting:
"We had one child carrying #B117 at a primary #school.
After testing all contacts, we only found
1 more child had been infected.
We believe it happened via out of school contact."

(no detailed circumstances)
hannover.de/Leben-in-der-R… Image
I see why #Norway is so worried about the #B1351 outbreak in Bergen:
the hotspot is a construction site
inside a partly operational student housing.
1.600 students live there,
and they all take the same tram, shop at the same supermarket,
as the workers
😱
nrk.no/vestland/fire-…
Bergen is now very clear:

"Close all large contruction sites in #Norway!"

And:
If the government doesn´t act, Bergen will take regional measures and close all sites in their jurisdiction...)
norwaytoday.info/news/bergen-wa…
Oh no🙄
Trondheim in Norway hasn´t "lost control".
They just don´t know how big the problem is, yet...

(Customers who had visited a hardware store in a 5 day period need to isolate immediately - with families.
That store was spreading #B117 infections...)
nrk.no/trondelag/ny-s… Image
Wording🙄

"This is about limiting mobility,
calling it a ´travel warning´ is just wrong"

(#Austria has issued an official travel warning for their own state #Tyrol, as Tyrol continues a rather ´intransparent´ handling of unknown numbers of #B1351 cases)
tirol.gv.at/presse/pressem… Image
Wording😵 - read carefully🙄

#Austria´s military will be deployed to #Tyrol for border controls...
of people who want to enter INTO Tyrol
from ABROAD (Germany, Switzerland, etc.)

and some contact tracing.

Okay?
What did you think? Calm down...😏
Here we go again...
A court rules "due to the successfully lowered incidence rates, current measures are disproportionate and must be lifted"

D´🍩🍩🍩🍩🍩🍩🍩h!
We won´t see donut days any soon.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
This is what #B117 does.
This is "disproportionate".
It just waits until you feel like📉🥳

You start to dance - it will hit you like a hammer
(incidence <35 to >130+ in just a few days)
lra-hok.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
A workplace outbreak is driving the rapid re-surge of #COVID19 in Hohenlohe (#Germany).
43 infected at work (#B117)
19 of 74 contacts already ´positive´.

Authorities scramble and quarantine secondary contacts (family members of mere contacts) as well! ...
hohenlohekreis.de/index.php?id=2… Image
Adding to Hohenlohe´s
"highly dynamic and worrying" #COVID19 trend:
a #kindergarten outbreak, where
"children infected parents and other children"

(They´re no "drivers of the pandemic" or "riders of the apocalypse" - they´re just people who infect others)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
A warning from Hohenlohe (#Germany):

2 weeks ago,
our district was the one with the lowest incidence in our entire state.

The sudden outbreaks have now turned us into the one with the highest incidence, within a matter of days.😞

Stick to the measures!
oehringen.de/buerger/corona… Image
📢Stick to the measures!

The interest in #Ireland´s fight against #COVID19 has somehow faded (according to view numbers of NPHET briefings).

Numbers may seem to be frustratingly stagnant, now.
👉But that´s the good news !👈

If people just hang in...
Image
When FINDING more cases is a good sign:

#Ireland had to stop tracing close contacts during the brutal peak of infections.
It has resumed. It starts to find more cases, now.
Even the asymptomatic ones.

That´s why case numbers seem ´stagnant´ at the moment
An indicator that your contact tracing actually works:

The proportion of discovered ´asymptomatic´ cases
in young age groups
should be ~20%
again.

(😳did we ever keep track of this, here?)
When it has started, the curves look the same.
Everywhere around the world.

#B117 in #Norway.
~14%
(week 5 not complete, yet)
fhi.no/sv/smittsomme-… Image
Suprise🙄in #Austria:

#Tyrol doesn´t have 8 active cases of #B1351.
It´s "120 active cases, at the moment", at least.

(that´s not what they told us, yesterday...)
Surprise😕for #Tyrol:

#Austria´s army will soon start with checks at the state borders of Tyrol (north),
controlling everyone who wants to LEAVE.

Negative #COVID19 tests will be mandatory.

(That´s not what they were told, yesterday...😏)
#Austria´s railway announce that a negative test would be required,
even for a mere transit through #Tyrol.
"Customers who had been to the supermarket since February 1st are advised to OBSERVE THEIR HEALTH
and IN CASE OF SYMPTOMS get a #COVID19 test done..."

🙄
We won´t make it to zero, any time soon.

Germany, #Osnabrück district. #B117.
landkreis-osnabrueck.de/presse/presses… Image
"A contractor had informed the supermarket that he had been tested "positive".
THEN LATER, DURING A MEETING at the supermarket he probably infected 3 employees..."

(that´s what the text says🤷
and there´s only this one text version circulating)
#Osnabrück
Image
#SARSCoV2 and the mystical mist.

#Melbourne Health Authority now suspects
the reason why people who were just passing through a hotel corridor got infected, was

an infected person had used a "nebuliser"
(inhaling medics, exhaling viral loaded aerosol...)
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
Oh
my
goodness
🤦

#SARSCoV2
🤦Narf!

#Vaping #SARSCoV2
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Oh. Okay.
😌
"The infection risk from a person #vaping is well
BELOW that from the same person SPEAKING.
Speaking only for 6 minutes per hour already yields a higher infection risk than high intensity vaping"

🤫
(study):
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
The more transmissions,
the more chance for transmission failure (aka #Variants).

Some of them may be less fortunate.
Some of them will become famous as
"Variant of Concern".

The one from #Bristol seems to be an aspiring one,
featuring #E484K
🧬
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Denmark is surprised:
"Looks like we managed to have control of #B117"

The calculated reproduction factor is R(t)~0,99
meaning: this variant doesn´t grow!

It might be due to their strict counter measures.
And to their tracing, focussing on B117 contacts!
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
#Denmark:
"We need to keep our current measures. This monday, we have opened up our elementary schools again.

That effect will only be seen in a few weeks.

It seems, #B117 might rise to R~1,15 next week, and maybe only go up from then..."
A nebuliser seems to be incredibly effective in spreading #SARSCoV2.

But I somehow doubt it happens via "exhaled left-over aerosol with the virus attached to it"...
UK´s NERVTAG had evaluated the risk of nebulisers spreading #SARSCoV2, 3 weeks ago.

The inhaled aerosol would turn into droplets, once hitting lung tissue. Staying there.

(My guess for the Melbourne case is: contaminated ´unhygienic´ #nebuliser tank😣)
gov.uk/government/pub… Image
Whatever the #nebuliser in Melbourne´s quarantine hotel was spreading:

it seems to have been incredibly contagious...
😷
Interesting points in this interview:
(⏩after⏱️18´15"):

-N95 were not required for all personnel
-One was wearing an N95 but got infected
😷
The issue: wearing one isn´t enough.
It needs to be worn correctly.
#Melbourne #Nebuliser #Aerosol #COVDI19
facebook.com/abcmelbourne/v…
That seems to be another issue:
making people alert enough,
so that they think about maybe being infected,
even when they are off-duty and feel (mild) symptoms.

And not wander around the city for 3 days,
before finally a test says
#COVID19 "positive"🤦
Image
#France is confident enough to not sharpen their #COVID19 restrictions, at the moment.
Overall, test numbers have increased a bit
and positivity rate has decreased a bit.

Seems that everything is going fine...
for now.
🧐
🔎
Something is going on in Dunkerque,
in the North of #France:

Their positivity rate has gone up a lot,
the proportion of #B117 is 6 times as high
as the average of entire France.

Their hospitals are saturated and started transfers again...
bfmtv.com/grand-lille/co…
🔎
Something´s going on in Marseille,
in the South of #France:

"case numbers start to go up.
(as sewage #COVID19 traces predicted)
ICUs are saturated, but what´s new and alerting: it´s more and more younger patients admitted there..."
Oddly enough,
data from #Marseille says
"number of new #COVID19 cases has been rising slowly"
(from ~60 to ~130 cases per day)🔵

while
"there was a swift peak of #COVID19 markers in sewage water, but it´s receding, now"🟠
mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/upl… Image
Nothing much happens in Düsseldorf (#Germany):

They started to analyze their current #COVID19 cases and found:
"19.5% are already #B117

At the same time, their 7-day-incidence is pretty low (45,7 today)...
corona.duesseldorf.de/news/fast-jede…
Düsseldorf´s case numbers are constantly going down, depite a current "proportion of 19.5% #B117".

They say that proportion makes for 34 cases (in the last 10 days).
(🤔If those 34 and their contacts are under control, even #B117 should be manageable👊)
corona.duesseldorf.de/zielgruppen/al… Image
Trondheim (#Norway) learnt from Australia:
after discovering #B117 infected persons had been out in the city, they issued a warning & a list of all visited venues.

Everyone who had been there (at the certain time) was urged to get tested

(autotranslate):
trondheim.kommune.no/aktuelt/korona… Image
#Trondheim was trying hard.
But they discovered soon, their contact tracing couldn´t keep up (´was blasted´🙄as autotranslate says)...

Neighboring communities have now declared Trondheim to be
"Uncontrolled Infection Area"
and urge to not travel there...
nrk.no/trondelag/fryk… Image
When Trondheim´s contact tracing was still ´intact´, they thought that one case of #B117 at a school would be manageable😌

But today they found another case,
"with many contacts at this school"
😱
All 1.500 students, staff & families are quarantined, now.
nrk.no/trondelag/hele…
So,
#Germany just declared Austria´s #Tyrol (and Czechia) to be
"Areas of Uncontrolled Infection" (as Norway would say)

(it´s not the german "Virusvariant-Area" definition, that would cut off those regions completely.
Seems it´s just about heavy controls)
Many commuters from Czechia are working in #Bavaria.
"there´s a large number of outbreaks at workplaces, now".

They already had free/mandatory testing installed.

Now there´s a new rule:
"workers from Czechia must not leave their workplace" (no shopping)
landkreis-hof.de/neue-regelunge… Image
"Variants already make up 40%-70% of all new #COVID19 cases in the Bavaria/Czechia border region"
deutschlandfunk.de/covid-19-mutat…
There´s something going on in #France.

"today, already ~20% to 25% of new #COVID19 cases is the #B117 variant"

(but that´s not all)...
in #France´s department "Moselle",
there are ~300 cases of ´Brazil´& ´South Africa´ variants...

"The situation is worrying.
I will go there tomorrow and see what the problem is."

(there´s some notion that the infections might have come from... Germany🙄)
bfmtv.com/sante/variants…
At first glance, there´s not much difference between Moselle (France) and other departements.

It´s just that others have a falling incidence and Moselle slowly rises.
But if you know that rise is made up of #B1351 etc...

That´s really worrying.
grand-est.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
#France´s departement Moselle has already reacted:

Every school, where one (1) case of a new #variant (´South Africa´ or ´Brazil´) pops up,
will be closed.
Entirely.

~8 closed, so far (number rising)
francebleu.fr/infos/educatio…
The mayor of Metz (Moselle, #France) is in favour of a regional #Lockdown

"but it has to be short and hard. And it needs to take care of schools."
(He sees ´exploding case numbers among 10-20 year olds´)

"They need to stay at home".
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
Good morning, Melbourne,
good morning world!!!
✈
"Anyone who attended

Terminal 4 at
#Melbourne Airport

between 4.45am and 1.15pm on February 9 is being told to get tested and isolate immediately for 14 days."
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
#Ireland still has
"a long way to go"
#COVID19
Oh,
#Ireland's case decline has started to slow down!

(it used to be 6-9 percent per day.
Now 4-6%)
Authorities have a very detailed picture of #COVID19 spread in #France's Moselle.

It will be interesting to find a common pattern in this very localized prevalence.

Also one thing is noticable:
It's mostly in the age group 10-19 years.
Authorities in #Melbourne should have an even more detailed picture of where #COVID19 cases currently are.

Their response, after seeing the recent trail of infections:
#Victoria #B117
I see why they hurry & worry:

"the time between exposure, incubation, symptoms and testing positive is rapidly shortening.
So much so, that even secondary close contacts are potentially infectious within that 48-hour window"
#HyperSpeed
premier.vic.gov.au/statement-prem… Image
Most of Europe may think this might be a bit too much of a panic...😂👇
but on the other hand:

what happens if you attach wings and jet thrust to a "hyper-speed" virus?
(how did it get there, after all?☝️🙄)
🧬🚀🌏
#Victoria #B117
So #Germany has in fact declared
-Tyrol
-Czech Republic
-and also Slovakia

"Areas of Variant of Concern"

That should trigger a new "COVID Protection Ordinance",
prohibiting persons to travel from those regions into Germany...
(no test can change that)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
As it was announced during #France´s Health Minister´s visit

"the departement of #Moselle counts
~100 new ´South Africa´ variant cases, every day😯
Mostly in the North / West
It´s not only clusters, or travel related.
It seems to be community spread..."
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
This morning,
several mayors had urged to close the #schools in #France´s departement of #Moselle, as they saw the #B1351 variant was mainly spreading there...
Thionville´s mayor:
"~A hard #lockdown would need to close the borders as well and cut 150.000 people off from work.
Weekend #curfews would have heavy psychological impact on everyone.

The main issue is the #schools, where many are infected, these days."
Mayor of Metz (#Moselle):
"~Our local incidence is going above 400.
We´re seeing an explosion of #variant cases, especially in age group 10-20 years.

We need to stop this!
I´d like to start #school holidays one week early.
That means: today."
Despite all good proposals #France´s Health Minister left #Moselle, saying:
there should be more tests
and vaccination should be enforced.
🙄

The other things (closing schools, lockdown,...) would need to be discussed later.
😠many in Moselle aren´t happy
bfmtv.com/politique/vari…
Even #Moselle´s neighbors in #Germany are irritated:

"Why more testing?🙄Moselle already does twice as much testing and more vaccinating than we do here!"

They are afraid someone will have the idea to close the border between both regions...
sr.de/sr/home/nachri…
also #France, today:

"This is, to our knowledge, the first description of #reinfection with the ´South African´ #B1351 variant, causing severe #COVID19,
four months after a first mild infection."
watermark.silverchair.com/ciab129.pdf?to… Image
Meanwhile,
Kehl (#Germany) is preparing to offer free rapid (antigen) tests for residents and commuters to/from Strasbourg (their neighboring city in #France).

This is in anticipation of schools opening (Feb22) & maybe some new transit requirements...
For commuters from Czechia, Tyrol (& Slovakia) there will be no way to get to Germany, for a while.
Not even for going to work!

Germany just confirmed they will apply the full "COVID Protection Ordinance", due to widespread virus variants in those regions
Germany's railways are stopping to serve Tyrol, Czechia, ...
(also transit to italy, via Tyrol)
cool!
The #COVID19-hunting fire department of Marseille (#France) now has a chart,
showing the proportion of variants in wastewater samples
(´UK´ ~the same as ´Brazil´+´South Africa´)

and maps that show where they found which variant in samples
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬🚒
For the first time since last summer,
#UK´s reproduction number has fallen below R(t)~1,
in every region.

That´s WITH #B117 as a dominant variant!

They are under national #Lockdown.
Schools are closed.
news.sky.com/story/covid-19… Image
#Portugal´s reproduction number has fallen down to R(t)~0.71

Not only is this the lowest number since the start of the pandemic,
they claim
"this is the lowest R in whole Europe !"
😯
jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/coron…
#Portugal´s Prime Minister:

"The current confinement works!
We have to maintain the current level of confinement, certainly for the next 2 weeks
and we must realistically assume that we will have to keep it even during the month of March"
(schools closed)
covid19.min-saude.pt/atual-nivel-de…
Portugal´s R(t) seems to crash down,
right after they closed schools...
(which was the very last measure that was left, as everything else didn´t seem to work)

(Note: it takes ~2-3 weeks before measures show effects. Earlier measures may well have worked)
😧er, that wasn´t in the news, yet - was it?

According to biogroup (doing ~25% of all #COVID19 tests in #France),
the hotspot of ´Brazil´&´South Africa´ #Variants isn´t Moselle...
the share of these variants in #Vosges departement is 31.3%
😵
#B1351 #P1?
biogroup.fr/actualites/don… Image
What´s the special😵factor with Vosges departement?
While Moselle is kind of nice (I like it), it´s a lot of industry there.

Vosges on the other hand has mountains, snow, and...
as holidays have started in parts of France, already - TOURISTS (booked out)!
tf1.fr/amp/tf1/jt-13h…
Norge🇳🇴...har du det bra??

#COVID19 case numbers in Norway have stopped going down and suddenly jumped up (+154 cases more than the same day last week).

(Norway´s Health Minister yesterday:
"infections are under control.
Have nice holidays,
be careful")
nrk.no/norge/425-nye-…
#Norway´s National Health Institute #FHI right now, be like:
Norway´s National Health Institute:
Hei alle sammen!

There was some technical issue.
Some case reports got clogged in the system. And when we fixed it, they all came out at once.
There was no spike in #COVID19 case numbers.
Trend is still slowly downwards
Meanwhile, there´s🔥in Moselle (#France):
The Mayor of Metz is upset. It was confirmed again, that "no new meaures" would be taken against #B1351 & #P1 variants in #Moselle.

"This is like denying reinforcements to fire crews,
battling the blaze"
Prefect of #Moselle departement:
"We don´t want to restrict movements - the region is dependant on free travel to neighboring countries"
(🤦exactly!)

"We won´t close schools, as this would be too excessive, in view of the small number of cases"
(🤷huh?)
actu.fr/societe/corona…
Finally, there´s also some good news for #Moselle:

Crews from the #COVID19-hunting fire department of #Marseille will come all the way up to the north of #France, to support Moselle with their wastewater virus tracing !

They arrive tomorrow🚒
Start work on monday🪣🧬🧑‍🔬 Image
Meanwhile,
in Dunkerque (#France):

"The situation has worsened brutally <-(sic!)
Our incidence is now at 515,
as opposed to 384, a week ago,

while the circulation of ´UK´ variant #B117 is gaining speed."
nord.gouv.fr/Actualites/Act… Image
#Dunkerque has now "42% more patients in hospitals than 2 weeks ago".

As #B117 is taking its toll,
the mayor had asked to close schools...
it will not happen.

"sanitary measures" instead.
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
All of a sudden,
#NewZealand found a #COVID19 ´positive´ family in their community.

-a highschool teenager
-a onstruction worker
-a catering worker

There´s no hint to where they may have got infected, so far...
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
NZ´s list of "exposure sites" is long.
It´s interesting to see how NZ stacks test priorities, to avoid jammed test facilities:

Risk of exposure (casual outdoors or "casual plus" in indoor settings)
Time since exposure (earliest test 5 days after exposure)
health.govt.nz/our-work/disea… Image
It´s also interesting to see, how #NewZealand just flips open their handbook and assigns
"You´re #Level2 Area - and you over there, you´re #Level3, sorry. It´s just for 3 days."

(while I´m having another mental breakdown over local updates in Germany😭)
🇩🇪#BW
I mean:
WHY ON EARTH did someone think this would be necessary:

"personnel at medical facilities will no longer be required to wear FFP2 masks as long as they don´t have direct contact with patients"

(🤔I can´t see the aerosol. So it can´t see me)
…zialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/gesundheit-… Image
🚧✋🚧
Roadblocks around Auckland.

Of course, this will only work as long as you can say
"it´s only for 3 days - we think we´ll have it under control, then"

BTW: anyone knows how #Moselle (France) is doing with their #B1351 etc. outbreaks?
Is the virus starting to fool tests ?
Tests of the latest #B117 cases in #Melbourne gave "inconclusive" results.

One of them had "immediately transmitted" the virus,
despite having been tested
⚠️´negative´ before and AFTER the contact !⚠️

🙄👉🔘🚨
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
The "source case" testing ´negative´ before and AFTER transmitting,

+ one contact having 3 different results in one day...

🤔Those tests (procedures) appear to be pretty useless for that type of virus (which is supposed to be ´ordinary´ #B117)
#Melbourne
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
#Melbourne should aim for good testing (procedures)...

They now have
"hundreds or thousands of contacts"
who have been to a popular market hall.

They are all required to get tested and isolate at home for 14 days.
View of a hospital director from #Moselle:

"Hospitals/ICU are full. But only 50% are #COVID19"
"COVID Emergency calls start to increase, but not as bad as last year"
"We need to come out of this dictate, where public health commands over everything else"
europe1.fr/societe/un-ren…
I think,
the doctor´s view would be shared by many, when he says:

the priority should be
"detection, treatment and isolation"

The thing is:
many can´t see that #detection and #isolation would be working in #Moselle, at the moment.
today24.news/en/2021/02/str… Image
The "detection" capacity of #Moselle will soon receive a boost.
A convoy of #Marseille´s fire department started its 800 km route, this morning.
🚒💨
Their duty will be to develop a map of the different #SARSCoV2 variants´ spread, by analyzing wastewater.
The situation in #Portugal is looking better each day.

Hospital admisssions peaked ~2 weeks ago,
ICU peaked ~1 week ago (still remains very high).

Treatment is still mostly concentrated on #COVID19 patients...
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
The director of #Portugal´s largest hospital has one goal:
reducing #COVID19 patient numbers, so treatment of "normal" patients can resume.

He warns: "the virus is still there!
If we reopen hastily, it will all go up, just as fast as before."
publico.pt/2021/02/14/soc…
(article from last week):
"The closing of the schools was decisive for the abrupt drop in Portugal´s case numbers."

"Looking at age group incidences, I have no doubt that the closure of schools was decisive and we acted too late."
observador.pt/2021/02/09/car…
"~Last March, #Portugal´s case numbers were only 400 a day, so school closures showed no big effect.

Now we had 14.000 cases a day and infections in schools, (some spreading to families) - this is why school closures had such an impact."
publico.pt/2021/02/08/soc…
A note from the town of Ulvik in #Norway:

"The Mayor is optimistic, and believes that we are now seeing an end of the outbreak, thanks to great joint efforts in our small village!"

Only 4 new cases, that day.
The town of 1.067 inhabitants has 130 cases.
ulvik.kommune.no/kontaktinforma… Image
What happened in #Norway´s remote town of Ulvik,
that got 12% of the population infected with #B117,
sent hundreds (half the town) into quarantine
and 6 into hospital?

"We believe it was the kids"

🚸
vg.no/nyheter/i/gWLg…
Ulvik´s #B117 outbreak came from abroad, with a family.

They followed the rules, took 2 tests, quarantined for 10 days.
After quarantine was over, their son went to Ulvik school.
Just for one day...
🚸🧬
Later that day, the parents felt #COVID19 symptoms.
nrk.no/vestland/pasie…
#NewZealand and one #B117 infected kid:

"During the infectious period she was at #school for a very short period of time...

we are essentially talking about one or two days"

(will this become a story like Ulvik in Norway?)😞
#Dunkerque region Mayors (F):

"In our area, the ´UK´ variant #B117 is already making up 80% of #COVID19 cases."

"We´re not allowed to close schools,
but we close class after class, when infections occur.
So schools may finally close down all together"
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
Here´s the #COVID19 incidence rate of #Dunkerque region (and surrounding departements "Nord" & "Pas-de-Calais").

The entire area sees a rising trend (which is contrary to most of #France)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Something to think about:
While Dunkerque´s incidence is currently ~230ish,

here´s the incidence for Moselle (purple ~290)

and Alpes-Maritime in the South of #France (blue, ~500) - they wonder why everyone freaks out about the numbers in the North and no-one talks about them... Image
Here´s more tricky data from #France:
The rate of positive tests.

Which one should we worry about?
Alpes-Maritimes (blue) has ~33% #B117
Nord (Dunkerque, green) has ~80% #B117
Moselle (purple) has many #B1351 cases, goes wild on testing, so positivity rate goes down
🤔 Image
Me,

seeing incidences fall,
test positive rates fall,
even in those areas with a high share of #Variant cases,
the world swinging into "Yeah, let´s reopen!" mood,
I´m nearly falling to it myself...

Just swiftly checking the internet for #COVID19 reports
and...

nooooooooooo !
Y´all remember the case of the Quarantine Hotel staff in #Melbourne,
who received regular #COVID19 tests.

She tested "negative" before she went into a restaurant, "immediately" infected several people,
and was tested "negative" again, the next day...
theage.com.au/national/victo…
One of the (false "negative" case´s) contacts at the #Melbourne restaurant was tested over and over for 2-3 days.

She returned 4 different results,
a "maybe" weak positive.

It was decided to be "positive", today.
(hundreds of contacts need to quarantine)
dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-co…
Now, Bergen (#Norway) sends a warning:

"We´re seeing it over and over again:
Contacts test ´negative´.
Then in quarantine they develop symptoms.
And even later they´re finally tested ´positive´.
This seems to be a feature of the new #variants"
🙄👉🔘 🚨
nrk.no/vestland/berge… Image
Now, #Austria´s Tyrol comes along, saying

"well, we found around 505 ´South Africa´ variant (#B1351) cases, so far.
~142 seem to be active right now.

But you know what? WE STILL HAVE THE LOWEST INCIDENCE RATE IN ALL OF AUSTRIA !😁"

😳😧😣
tirol.gv.at/gesundheit-vor… Image
Will I have mutant nightmares?
🙄
Nah - everything will be fine soon.
We´ll go out and have fun and everything else, again

"Hi, I´m negative"...
France has modified the #COVID19 outbreak protocol for schools.

If it´s a #B117 variant,
only close contacts need to quarantine.

If it´s a #B1351 or #P1 case, the whole class will need to quarantine immediately.

🤔wait... how do they know the variant?🙄
education.gouv.fr/covid19-ouvert… Image
Parents in #Moselle refuse to send their kids to school.
🤷
20minutes.fr/sante/2977483-…
Superstars...

The #COVID19-hunters from Marseille fire department have begun their work in #Moselle.
They seem to be constantly surrounded by reporters.

🪣🧬🧑‍🔬 📸📹

(not so famous: the canal workers who actually wade through that stuff every day🙄)
france24.com/fr/info-en-con…
Yesterday, first wastewater samples were taken from 8 large sewage treatment plants, schools and nursing homes in #Moselle.

🪣🧬✈️
A plane transferred them to Marseille where they are analysed for #COVID19 variants.
First results will be announced today.
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
😮
Oulaaaa....

Mayor of Dunkerque (#France) just exploded.

"~this 'UK' #variant is highly contagious. It is going to saturate our hospitals in no time.
We had measures, but government brought their own, keeping schools open.

We need IMMEDIATE action."
Now Alpes-Maritimes makes itself heard:

"I resort to draw your attention to the fact that I already had the honour to formally urge Monsieur Ministre in 2 earlier letters...😠"

that this departement is the REALLY worst hit in France and needs vaccines.
Health Minister of #France just announced:

"The situation in #Moselle remained under control.
No further measures are needed.
It´s difficult to say why the variant hit this small landstrip."
🤨
(that´s too reassuring the neighbors that it is ´confined´)
actu.fr/societe/corona…
A press conference of #Moselle´s regional authorities wasn´t so optimistic, earlier today:

"360 of 4.000 classes are closed, due to at least one case of #B1351 (in class or family)".

"Half of analyzed #COVID19 cases are now variants.
35% are #B1351."
actu.fr/societe/corona…
Information from today´s press conference in #Moselle (France):

First results of the watewater samples (taken by specialised crew from Marseille fire department) are in.
All samples fom nursing homes show no sign of #COVID19, there.

Here´s how they work:
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
There was also some disappointment:
#Moselle will not publish other wastewater test results, for now.
"It would say nothing. This is the first shot. It´s only after we´ve taken a 2nd sample that we can see a trend."

These results may come next weekend.
republicain-lorrain.fr/sante/2021/02/…
Germany´s #RKI has just changed their #quarantine guidelines:

"#Variants are becoming common, so stricter variant-quarantine rules shall now be applied to all cases
(14 days, no shortening by tests).

"secondary contacts don´t need to be quarantined"
🤔
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
In a few hours,
#Melbourne shall "largely return to its previous rules".

Not to the eased ones, that would have come into force the very day, when it was discovered that #B117 had escaped quarantine.

And there'll be masks.
Because you never know.😷
All of #Victoria's lockdowns had happened, because city hotels are not really made to serve as quarantine facilities.

At last,
that is looked into.

A quarantine camp in Australia's Nortern Territory will serve as a model.
premier.vic.gov.au/exploring-new-…
For #NewZealand, it's not over, yet.

The #B117-infected teenager, who had been to school for 1-2 days...
of course, the virus infected someone in her class,
who then infected someone in her family...

They had already been in quarantine.
But new contacts.
Dordogne (in south-west #France) is such a remote area, that even tweets need a day to get known to the world...

So how on earth did 'South Africa'/'Brazil' #COVID19 variants manage to get there???

160 cases.
"no community spread", so far...
Things go a bit more relaxed, in #France´s Dordogne.

60 tests have been done on monday. ~10 are #COVID19 ´positive´.

They are now sequenced in Paris & Lyon.
Being such a remote location, some think it may well be "a local #Variant"...
sudouest.fr/dordogne/nontr…
The 60 tests on monday in Dordogne were no "community test campaign".

These tests were meant for visitors (contacts) of some nursing homes, where the suspicious variant is circulating.

The official note is
"A massive community spread is not observed".
🤷
20minutes.fr/faits_divers/2…
Actually, the outbreak of the "suspicious variant" in Dordogne (F) might have been going on for quite a while.

They talk about a deadly outbreak in a nursing home in Nontron, starting ~22 January.
And authorities still don't know where the "mistery #variant cases" of #Dordogne came from.

(but for sure, they claim: "it is contained")
😏
rmc.bfmtv.com/emission/covid…
So,
#Germany is a bit agitated, since the Health Minister stated that "meanwhile, #B117 is found to be over 20% of #COVID19 cases"...
😨

Denmark: "hold my test tube...!"
Yesterday, #Denmark published sequencing results.

They found #B117 was ~30% of sequenced samples in week 5 (~2 weeks ago, early February)
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
And #Denmark also found,
that current measures seem to lose power to contain infections...

R(t) for #B117 is now ~1.2 (!!)
🌊
covid19.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
#Denmark's numbers were decreasing a lot.

One proposal was made in parliament:
"We would like to open Denmark a little bit more as spring is back"

All kids back to school.
(part time, tests),
small shops open
(when case numbers stay low)

😐We'll see...
(updated, while I had a coffee break🍰☕️)

😕#Denmark now says, last week´s share of #B117 was already 45%...
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
Denmark´s Health Minister:

"Our current reproduction number is currently R(t)~0.9

that´s not bad, considering we opened primary schools on February 8 and the fact that B117 is already at 45%"
How does it look like, if #B117 finally gets to 80%?

That just hapened in Dunkerque (#France)
their incidence jumped over 650

"If you look at Dunkerque and the surrounding towns, it seems #B117 is establishing really fast"
🤔These results are from 7 #B117 patients, only.

Seems
"symptoms of infections with the new variants start very late in quarantine"
(Norway, Victoria)
"People left quarantine and THEN started to infect others"
(Singapore, Japan,...)
is really a thing.
🤨
Study:
The mean duration of infection with ´ordinary´ #COVID19 used to be ~8.2 days (max. 9.7 days)

If a person catches the #B117 variant virus, the usual infection duration seems to be ~13.3. days (at least 10.1 days, max. 16.5 days)...
🤨
dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/hand… Image
A map of local #SARSCoV2 variants

(according to #Germany)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
A map of local #SARSCoV2 variants

(according to #Norway)
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
A mapf of the local #SARSCoV2 variant

(according to France´s Health Minister,
all new cases in #Moselle should be regarded as being #B1351 (or a ´Brazil´ variant)
For perspective:

The test rate of #Moselle (France is throwing all their spare tests in there).
And Alpes-Maritimes.

(note: on this scale,
Germany would have ~250 tests per 100.000 inhabitants per day)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Interesting effect:
(positive rate, 🇩🇪 has ~6.5%)

While the mass testing in #Moselle seems to find many "negatives"🤔,

the ~constant testing in Alpes-Maritimes suddenly goes📈😱(#B117 was present with 30%, 5 days ago. Yesterday this was said to be 50%)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
"There´s no case explosion in #Moselle",
the prefect said.

(unfortunately, there´s no insight in who´s getting tested, as well...)
In #Czechia, things are consistent (in getting a bit worse every day): R(t)~1.1

But tomorrow, there´ll be talks about opening shops.
And school might start again in March (with some testing).

(🧐needs to be watched...)
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/k…
A research institution in #Germany "wants to find out, if analyzing wastewater may give hints to #COVID19 in the area."
"Early results of the first pilot are expected soon".

(😴they started ~3 waves ago and are still stuck with "research"???)😣😳😢
mdr.de/thueringen/vid…
The COVID-hunters of #Marseille fire department have just published new maps of how infections with #SARSCoV2 variants are distributed in their city.

(Derived from sophisticated wastewater sample analysis...)
The new "trendy" variant #B1525 (a mix of ´UK´ and ´South Africa´ variant) has been discovered in 22 samples in #Norway.

All from the Jan 21 - Feb 8 period,
most from Oslo region.

"As this variant shows up in tests as simple B117, it may be overlooked!"
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/n…
Due to recent findings
(variants can cause infections to persist longer),
#France will adapt its isolation period from 7 days to 10 days.

(for ALL infected persons, REGARDLESS of the actual variant).

"for contacts, it stays at 7 days quarantine"
#Finland has found a brand new variant (#FIN796H).

-this one may cause "N-gene target failures", so may not be detected by some PCR tests
-may be more infectious
-may escape immune response

+no reason to panic😎
(just a cause of concern)

(autotranslate)
vita.fi/uutiset/suomes… Image
New cases in #Melbourne.
Already in isolation, so no big worries

They are believed to have been infected by the "Nebuliser" event on Feb 3/4.
They still tested ´negative´ on Feb 10.
🤔

(7 day quarantine period might really be too short for new variants)
Seems #B117 is getting ready for a great tour of #Germany...

2 kindergartens, 10 infected staff and 10 infected kids. 100 contacts (one week ago).

That turned into:
67 sequenced so far - 45 of them carry #B117

"The kids swiftly infect their families"
🙄
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe… Image
#B117 at work here as well?
#Germersheim sees a rapid uptick in their 7 day incidence rate.
Was pretty low before,
yesterday: 93.8
today: 106.2
...
(kindergartens involved...)

Oh: in 3 days, many german schools shall reopen.
😕
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… ImageImage
Kindergarten, other part of #Germany:

"A new dynamic in infections"
"Many of those kids are really sick"

Note: the kindergartens are open for kids of ESSENTIAL workers. Having those workers infected by their kids is maybe not what we´d want...
🤔
wn.de/Muensterland/K…
A swift google search for outbreaks at kindergartens in #Germany. (Timeframe: last 24 hours)

Just go ahead.
Check it:
google.com/search?biw=160… Image
A hospital in #Norway, near Oslo just started to sequence all #COVID19 cases they found.

Surprising result:
~80% are already #B117.

sykehuset-ostfold.no/nyheter/na-ana… Image
I was kind of wondering, why #Oslo had such a sudden surge of cases in the last ~5 days...

With 80% #B117, that´s no wonder anymore
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
Now:
Outbreaks in #Oslo's West (!)

"As it is mainly in children and young people, we suspect it's a variant"

"It looks like those cases are connected"

(4 districts concerned,
300 close contacts)
😦
dagsavisen.no/oslo/smitteutb…
Current #outbreaks in Oslo's West (#Norway):

"Children and adolescents had been sent to activities with mild, cold-like symptoms.

Parents need to pay more attention to this..."

😠gnnnnnnn.....
direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/n…
Interesting difference:

While one hospital NEAR Oslo today said they found 80% of their #COVID19 cases were #B117,
(they´re located in a hotspot)

it´s different in the city of #Oslo itself:
10-15% of samples are a Variant (says Norway´s Health Institute)
direkte.vg.no/coronaviruset/…
Meanwhile in #Moselle the second wastewater testing showed: the situation hasn´t changed.
The tracers for #B1351 variant still remain much higher than anywhere else in France.

Moselle firefighters have been trained, now.
They´ll take over sampling, soon.
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
One thing speaks against being content with that "stable condition" in #Moselle:

Intensive care units are 95% occupied.
And the age average of the occupants is strangely low:
55 years (10 years younger than it would normally be in France)...
republicain-lorrain.fr/faits-divers-j… Image
Remarkable in #Moselle:

while the watewater tests showed
"spread of #B1351 stayed the same, this week"

the number of admissions to intensive care suddenly spiked in the last ~4 days.

(That certainly shouldn´t keeep going on like this)...
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
In Kolding (#Denmark) the reopening of primary schools (Feb8) didn´t go well.
Several clusters of #B117 around schools and kindergartens developped in the last few days.

Thes situation got so bad, that all schools & kindergartens are now shut down.
tvsyd.dk/covid-19/freda…
As "something strange is going on" with kids in #Kolding🇩🇰,
with violent outbreaks at schools and kindergartens,
the city now offers #COVID19 tests for kids.

They recommend taking a test with kids as young as 1 year.
tvsyd.dk/covid-19/koldi…
#Denmark is closing many crossings to #Germany, tonight.
Reason: #B117 cases in the german border city #Flensburg don´t seem to be suppressed.

It started ~2 months ago (after Germans met for new year´s parties in Denmark) but it is self-sustained, now
nordschleswiger.dk/de/nordschlesw…
Case numbers have been increasing relentlessly.
"Meanwhile, EVERY NEW CASE is a #B117 variant"...
So, #Flensburg installs drastic measures:
- a nightcurfew &
- prohibiting contacts outside one´s household
for a week
(can be extended...)
flensburg.de/PDF/Schreiben_… Image
#Denmark's police confirmed:
"Infections' pressure from #Flensburg caused new border measures"

Only a handful border crossings remain open, strictly controlled.

Entry allowance would need:
-a "worthy" cause
-a 'negative' #COVID19 test
#Denmark´s initial border controls were aimed at keeping #B1351 out of the country.

The Kolding outbreak showed that #B117 can have a heavy impact as well.

And in some regions it is exploding...
(Syddanmark: there´s Kolding. And the border to Flensburg)
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
And in Aabenraa community (🇩🇰),
just over the border from Flensburg (🇩🇪),

registered #COVID19 cases suddenly went up to "bad as in December" levels, since ~7 days.

(so closing the border a bit more may seem to be an easy way to control the spread)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa4… Image
Different approach at the Saarland (🇩🇪) - Moselle (🇫🇷) border:
Both border regions reached an aggreement.

They´ll install a joint test centre.
And provide enough free rapid tests for firms in the region to test their commuting workers every 2 days.
sr.de/sr/sr3/saarlan…
At the border between Bavaria🇩🇪 and Czechia🇨🇿, the "rapid testing at the workplace, with free antigen tests" approach is already in place ( since ~2 weeks).

(just so you know:
they realized incidence doesn´t go down,
"because now we find more cases")🙂
landkreis-wunsiedel.de/buergerservice…
"The tendency in the last 3 days isn't good - not good anymore..."

Health Minister of #France confirms that the trend of decreasing case numbers seems to slow down.

But he still wants to wait for 8-10 days to adapt the current measures (or not)...
Lindesnes in #Norway hits the emergency-stop:

"Stay at home! Stay in your family!
We are in an unclear situation and infections keep spreading."

It all started at the local café...
(maybe it is a variant.
They just call it "the Superspreader-Virus")
lindesnes.kommune.no/hold-deg-hjemm… Image
One person at the #Lindesnes🇳🇴 café infected people from:
2 clinics
a pharmacy
stores
a gym

in 15 different communities

17 ´positive´, so far
>230 quarantined

The café owner was shocked when he learned he was the one who infected them:
"I felt nothing!"
vg.no/nyheter/innenr…
This one starts to freak me out...

#Germersheim district (🇩🇪) found out, why they have a surge in #COVID19:

"Unfortunately, we´re one of the first districts to have
#B117, #B1351 and #P1 at once.
The share of variants in new cases is now 25%"
🙄
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
#Germersheim found:
-current incubation period seems to be CONSIDERABLY LONGER THAN 5 DAYS.
-asymptomatic (children) have a long ´period of opportunity´ to infect others
-current #RKI contact tracing rules aren´t sufficient
(RKI: ´infectious period starts 2 days before symptoms´) Image
Yes, the majority of #outbreaks in #Germersheim district concerns #schools and kindergartens, at the moment...

But this is the thing that *really* draws my attention:

"increased influx of persons from risk areas"
"infections in housing units of maintenance workers"
🤨 Image
It wasn´t too hard to find, where those maintenance workers from #Germersheim, might be supposed to work...

there´s some big project going on,
attracting ~5.000 contract workers

🧑‍🔧🛠️👨‍🔧🪛👩‍🔧⛓️🧑‍🏭⚙️👨‍🏭🔩👩‍🏭 Image
🤔Ermmmm.... (I appreciate their openness, but)

Entry tests showed: "1% of workers is infected"
"That´s normal" and "in case of large outbreaks: we have back-up crews"
"Workers reside at local hotels"

(Article is from before #Variants were known, there)
bnn.de/karlsruhe/bis-… Image
Ah,
the company´s own press release stated:
"Workers were tested on arrival, BEFORE they started work at the project."
In 2 weeks, 2.500 workers were PCR tested.
1% of those were found ´positive´.

(that´s still an incidence of 1.000 in that ´community´😕)
miro-ka.de/_public/_asset… Image
Oslo (🇳🇴) found they have a #COVID19 issue with construction sites (a lot of blaming😕on foreign workers)

They´ll start a test raid on construction sites, but can´t force anyone to get tested.🤷

(👉a test is obligatory for entry to the Karlsruhe🇩🇪site)
abcnyheter.no/nyheter/norge/…
"Dealing with #B117 among workers"...

Early February, #Dillingen district 🇩🇪 registered an outbreak among workers/families/returnees from abroad.

Today, their incidence is one of #Germany´s lowest.

It was manageable with strict measures.
👉It´s not gone
augsburger-allgemeine.de/dillingen/Coro… Image
Dillingen´s #B117 outbreak was mostly confined to residents of 2 workers´ housings.

They could ´easily´ be quarantined (with strict security surveillance).
Quarantine has ended, now.

But there are already new outbreaks at other companies...
landkreis-dillingen.de/covid-19-landr… Image
Oh,
the situation in #Germersheim doesn't get better.

Even on low testing sunday, their incidence rose (now 124.8)!
😯
The #schools were supposed to reopen, tomorrow.
That had been changed to "voluntary participance" - and is just now being cancelled.
Interesting:
UK and France have agreed that a #COVID19 test for truck drivers will no longer be necessary, if the stay in UK was shorter than 48 hours.

(Only 0,1% of all truck dirvers tested "positive", recently.
And France´s incidence is higher than UK´s
#Germany is said to prepare a declaration as "High-Incidence Area" for France´s departement #Moselle.

(Yes, incidence is higher than in most german areas - but declaring it a ´Virusvariant-Area´ would be more appropriate, due to high #B1351 presence🤷)
20minutes.fr/monde/2982263-…
#Germany´s move isn´t a hectic one.
It was prepared (most certainly accorded).

Thursday, districts were already urged to issue special ordinances.
They will make it possible to provide the obligatory test AFTER crossing the border (e.g. at the workplace).
landkreis-karlsruhe.de/Quicknavigatio… Image
In #NewZealand, one more contact of the "mystery" outbreak of Auckland has finally tested #COVID19 ´positive´.
Had been isolating at home, with partly infected family, for one week.🙄
No spread in the community.

(I think it´s the last of 6 family members)
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
The day everything will return to ´normal´.
It´s not defined by an "incidence rate lower than xy"
or a "reproduction rate below yz"...

it´s when you can be pretty sure EVERY SINGLE CASE AND CONTACT is safely under control.
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
A prediction from #Poland´s Health Minister:
"The third wave has started. From now on, case numbers will only go up until ~March/April, when we´ll reach the peak of infections which will be ~10-12.000 cases per day."

"But the variants could worsen it".
tvn24.pl/polska/koronaw… Image
This afternoon regions in France (#Moselle) and Germany (Saarland) were relieved:

"There will be no additional restrictions at the border!"

(note: this doesn´t say ´nothing will happen´...)
To keep the traffic flowing across the border France (#Moselle) - Germany,
a high ranking, interministerial, "taskforce" from both countries and regions will need to find a solution.

They´ll discuss tomorrow...
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/saarland/lande…
One thing´s for sure:
controls at the border would provoque traffic to collapse.

A test center is being constructed at the border, right now. Its capacity is 500 tests per day.
There are ~15.000 daily commuters.

(Maybe it´ll turn to workplace testing)...
sr.de/sr/home/nachri…
I remember this crazy time (2020), when french colleagues were barred from work, just because they had a french passport.

Rapid tests would certainly have helped
(and would have found infected persons).

We´ll see what they come up with, this time.
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/pm/zweibruecke…
#UK just heard the timeframe back to normality:

March - schools & outdoor sports
April - all retail, restaurants (outdoors), staycations...
May - cinemas, hotels, large events...
June - everything is like before (nearly)

Their big hope is #vaccination.
#COVID19 case ditribution in #Aabenraa (Denmark)

a story of children, their parents and 2 weeks of open elementary schools...
🤷
experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa4… Image
Sequencing for week 7 is still ongoing, but so far
#B117 in #Denmark seems to contribute to ~57% of new cases.
(in Syddanmark, where Aabenraa is situated, it´s ~87%)
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
Hard-hit Dunkerque (#France) had started a mass test campaign, last week.
It showed results: #Dunkerque´s incidence was catapulted from ~713 (Friday) to over 900 (monday)!
#B117 has a share of ~70%.

The test campaign goes on...
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
Okay.
To return to 'normal',

you'd need to be REALLY pretty sure EVERY CASE AND CASUAL (plus) CONTACT is safely controlled,...
🧬It´s there. just look for it🧐

After having a first emergence of #COVID19 cases in one factory, a food producer in South #Germany wanted to take no chances. They had their site´s entire personnel tested.

Surprise: 55 of 300 came out ´positive´ (#B117).
suedkurier.de/region/kreis-k…
Since beginning of February, #Ireland´s share of #B117 is ~90%.

They still manage to keep case numbers falling,
but less and less successful, every day.
gov.ie/en/collection/… Image
With the current fragile situation, #Ireland is being said to prepare for ~6 weeks more of thier current strict confinement.

Then, in April, vaccination-effects will come to the rescue...
rte.ie/news/coronavir…
#Ireland seems to have one desire:

opening #schools, again.
At least for the younger grades.

And so they will do. Next monday, already.
Long before any protective effect of vaccinations would be noticeable in their population...
#Austria has reopened #schools since ~2 weeks ago.
That seems to work, with regular self-tests (every 2 days).

´Positive´ tests went up in the second week,
"because kids were getting used to tests and finally started to produce more reliable results"
🙄
vienna.at/536-positive-c…
Recently, #Austria´s case numbers are rising again.
Not said that´s because of schools. Other institutions reopened at the same time (hairdressers, museums,...)

One major difference to #Ireland:
There ain´t 90% of an aggressive #SARSCoV2 variant (yet)
🤨
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
A consulting group of experts in #Denmark has calculated that antigen-tests, done twice a week, would reduce infection risk at schools by 50%.

They advise to try it out with older grades...
but NOT in the areas where #B117 has a high prevalence.
sum.dk/Media/7/6/Inds… Image
#Denmark has more than 60% #B117, now.

And they wonder:
"We do not know why #B117 increases the risk of being hospitalized.

But our figures point in the same direction as several studies from the UK that show #B117 may have more serious trajectories"
🤨
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
The story of the outbreak of #B117 in #Norway´s small town of Ulvik:

ONE kid came back from abroad. After tests and quarantine, went to school. And introduced #B117.

In one month´s time ~12-13% of the population had been infected.
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
A week ago, #Ulvik stated:

"~The outbreak seems to be over. It has burned through.
Recent cases were isolated to families."

They started careful reopening on Monday, February 22.

Since then only 1 case.
(path is known)

(Population 1067, infected: 134)
ulvik.kommune.no/kontaktinforma… Image
Recently,
a document has been published.

It´s the expert council´s advise on how to deal with the surge of #B1351 in #Moselle (from February 12).

The expert weighed 2 options:
1) Test-Trace-Isolate-Vaccinate
2) Confine the region

They couldn´t decide.
solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/avis_c… Image
The experts left the decision on how to deal with #Moselle´s #B1351 issue to politics...

They opted for the "least damaging" option:
test-trace-isolate-vaccinate

and so (once again) a large mass testing campaign started...
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
#Moselle´s X-mas mass testing brought positivity briefly down (as everyone wanted tests for holidays).

With the current mass testing positivity went down again. But recently it stopped falling.

Indicating infections are really spreading in the community... Image
As #Moselle´s Test-Trace-Isolate-Vaccinate strategy seems to lose its power, there might be something else needed to keep the situation in control.

Saying is: there might be a weekend-confinement.
More is expected to be told in a press conference, today.
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
One surprise measure due to the high #B1351 presence in #Moselle (France):
France will demand a negative PCR test from everyone who wants to ENTER Moselle.
😮???!
For work-commuters it will be once per week.
Others need it every time.

solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/actualites/pre…
Prime Minister of #France:
"The situation in our country has deteriorated,
in recent days.
After several months on a plateau, the virus is gaining terrain, again.

In many other countries, like in ours,
something is happening, in the past few days"
#France seems to be worrying about 20 departements, particularly.
They are given one week time to think of own solutions.

"~If the situation hasn´t changed to the better..." (after ONE week?🤔) "...we may think about confinements"
"The ´UK´ variant (#B117) is already 50% of all new cases in #France"
lavoixdunord.fr/945431/article…
A district in northern #Germany says there was "one case, where only handing something over to a colleague was sufficient to be infected with #B117" !

They now trace casual contacts (less than 15 minutes),
from 5 days before,
and quarantine is 3 weeks !😮
ndr.de/nachrichten/ni…
As a result of #B117 outbreaks in northern #Germany, the flagship shipyard Meyer Werft sees rising numbers as well...

(only in infected & quarantined workers, unfortunately.
Cruise ship contracts are low. The yard intends to ax 20% of jobs (at least)).
meyerwerft.de/de/inhalt/coro… Image
That´s welcome news from #UK.

(It´s level 4 now: transmission is high or (rather not) rising exponentially)
Image
Not so welcome news from #Norway:

suddenly, #COVID19 case numbers in #Oslo are (re)surging drastically.
And this also reflects the national situation.
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
#Norway:
"We are in a very difficult situation with the increasing spread of more infectious virus variants
and more outbreaks that the municipalities are struggling to crack down quickly"

They believe it´s already spreading unnoticed in some communities.
nrk.no/norge/551-koro…
Mediocre news from #Ireland:

Yes, even with a 90% share of #B117,
it´s still possible to maintain a suppression of case numbers.

But it takes a huge effort.

And they really, really hope vaccines will have a large impact, soon (first signs are positive)
assets.gov.ie/124756/a89d2e0… Image
#Ireland
Q "~People are disappointed they don´t see a path out out of restrictions"
A "~the path is vaccines"

Q "with the new variant, what could people do more?"
A "Continue. We were world´s worst, 6 weeks ago. Through people´s actions we´re top 10 now."
All you maskless (since you sit 1.5m apart) office workers...

This one´s for you:
remember the Quarantine Hotel Guard, who´s infection sent #Perth into Lockdown, a month ago?

The hotel had a "non-recirculating" aircon, pushing fresh air into the rooms...
abc.net.au/news/2021-02-0…
An investigation found, Perth´s Hotel guard ´did everything right´.

He never left his place (3m away from the door of an infected quarantinee).
He officially "didn´t need a mask"

It was the AIRFLOW UNDER THE DOOR, that infected the guard in 3 m DISTANCE
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
2 weeks ago, #Czechia wanted to reopen schools & shops.

Now "it looks we´re running into a disaster".

"We've made a number of mistakes, but give us another chance. We don't want last year's Bergamo in the Czech Republic."

They´ll go into full #Lockdown
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/z…
Does this look familiar?
Yes, it says:

"Stay Home
-Support our Health Service-
Save Lives"

#Czechia now copied UK´s early campaign,
to reach the public
(supported by #UK embassy in Prague)
mvcr.cz/docDetail.aspx… Image
The Czech Republic compared to UK.

#Czechia:
Jan18: "10% are now #B117"
Jan27: "#B117 is just in isolated pockets, it´s not spreading in community"
Feb22: "80% of the infected may carry #B117"
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
So what went wrong for #Czechia?
A too hesitant reaction to #B117.

"We should have sequenced it, traced it and tried to delay the moment when that mutation becomes dominant.
This did not happen.
Now there is no longer any point in attempting to do that."
english.radio.cz/80-percent-inf…
#NewZealand´s last #Lockdown lasted 3 days.

But this new case had so many contacts, that they´re sure it will need a 7 day lockdown, to find everyone...

To start with: it´s somehow connected to the last lockdown´s cases - but no link is known...
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
#NewZealand´s new case "showed symptoms on Tuesday and may have been infectious all week",
while partcipating in the community,
visiting several "popular locations"...
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
One possible link could be a younger sibling, who is at the highschool, where the recent #NewZealand outbreak took place.
But they already tested ´negative´,
3 times.
😮
Their mother seems to have been infected, even more recently...🤔
tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-z…
I see #NewZealand's worries:

The new case went to study courses for 3 days, while being infectious (Mon/Wed/Thu).

His contacts may already be infectious, spreading it further...

They´re really fast with updating this chart.
An hour earlier, the counter for Auckland´s cluster cases stood at "14".

Now, case 15 was announced (Case O, already in quarantine, no big deal).

Big worry is "case M": didn´t stick to isolation, was positive
stuff.co.nz/national/12438… Image
Whatever they do in #France´s departement Alpes-Maritimes, it didn´t help.
#COVID19 incidence is now 3 times the national average.
The city of Nice (Côte d´Azur) particularly high).

But they came up with a new idea... (🙄)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
A weekend curfew is in force in #Nice / Côte d´Azur.

It was mainly meant to keep away tourists, who would otherwise flock to the attractive (but highly #COVID19-ridden) area for weekend out.

It seems to be enforced quite strictly
👮🚫🏝️
The strict weekend curfew for #Nice / Côte d´Azur had an immediate effect:

virtually all inhabitants left the area,
to spend their weekend somewhere else, as tourists.

Tadaaa🎶:
There´ll be very low transmission in the Côte d´Azur area, this weekend.
🙄
#France seems to screw things up, recently.

The same day they ordered obligatory PCR tests for everyone wanting to ENTER their departement #Moselle,

France´s Prime Minister officially announced, that #B1351 now makes up 60% of all positive cases, there
gouvernement.fr/partage/12128-… Image
#Moselle has 60% share of #B1351 ?!

That didn´t go unheard. It caused "concern" in Germany.
Seems, things went into move on highest levels...
overriding all regional accords.

It´s not fully official, yet.
But Moselle will become "Area of Variant Concern"
The classification as "Area of #Variant Concern" for #Moselle may have consequences.

Cross border travel might effectively be compromised. It would require a massive amount of tests, which #France already says "would be impossible"
🤷
What no-one wanted: stopping border traffic to try to confine the variants to one region.

It should have been stopped at the level of infected individuals. The "border" should be their home´s door.

But testing in #Moselle crashes down.
Cases stay high😕
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
So,
it´s official.

Someone at #Germany´s #RKI had to flip their laptop open this sunday. And added one note to the list:

"New Area of #Variant Concern:
France, departement #Moselle
(starting Tuesday morning)"
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
France "regrets the quasi-closure of the border by Germany",
@CBeaune wants to negotiate easements, like:

a test not every day, but every 48 hours
acceptance of rapid-antigen tests

(What a show. That *is* the standard of Germany´s sharpened entry rules)
According to #Germany´s rules for entry from "Areas of Variant Concern":

- yes, you must be able to show a ´negative´ test result
->this test result may be up to 2 days old

- #RKI specifications explicitly mention rapid-antigen tests as being accepted
🤷
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/fileadmin/Date… Image
Something,
that may not have come to attention:

all public transport from/to "Areas of Variant Concern" will be stopped.
🚃🛑🚌
The end of commuter trains & busses,
e.g. going between Forbach (#France) and Saarbrücken (#Germany) in 11 minutes.
reiseauskunft.bahn.de/bin/query.exe/… Image
An impression, how incisive Germany´s "Area of Variant Concern" measures can be:

Many work commuters have given up crossing the #Czechia/Germany border.
They either stay in #Germany (hotel costs subsidized by the state)
or stay at home.
mdr.de/nachrichten/pa…
Oh no
Oslo
😮
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
#Oslo:
"The increase in infection we are now seeing is a result of imported variants.
The new virus #variants are spreading faster than previous variants.

Oslo people have taken great responsibility for a long time,
but we must now ask for even more"
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad…
Oslo introduces a full Lockdown:

restaurants closed
stores closed
schools "red" (remote)
no events
"avoid visits to other private homes"

More testing, especially for children & adolescents (note: recent events suggested they´re quite efficient spreaders)
Oslo´s #Lockdown rules also point to another major factor in their recent outbreaks:

"We will introduce our own infection control rules for construction sites.
Deliberate or grossly negligent violations shall be punished with up to 6 months prison time"
👷👈👮 Image
#Oslo:
"School will be either not happening or remote".

"We need to slow down infections among children and adolescents...we will look at possibilities to introduce mass testing and reduced contacts at school (for other lockdown stages, later)..."
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad… Image
#Moselle prefecture (France) just announced that crossing the border to #Germany will require (from Tuesday on):

a ´negative´ test (max 48 hours old, rapid-antigen tests are OK)
an entry form

+public transport will be interrupted
🤷
A data geek assembled #France´s departements in 3 groups, according to their share of #B117

🟩10%-30%
🟦30%-50%
🟥> 50%

Since ~3 weeks ago,
a trend became obvious:
in the groups with more #B117, case numbers grow much more/faster...
meteo-covid.com/graphique-comp… Image
One year ago, we all watched in awe, what was happening in #Italy.
😯
Those curves, they start to surge again...
(doubling every ~10 days)
Image
Today,
#Czechia´s #COVID19 situation doesn´t look better.

They introduced harsh restrictions (like confining people´s movements to one ditrict, with strict police controls)
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
Along with #Czechia´s travel restrictions,
comes a massive test campaign in the industry.

"We are not stopping the industry. However, comprehensive testing in companies will be mandatory."

(The goal is to test 2 million workes in 2 weeks!)
#Czechia´s neighbor states have come together to see what they can do...
Austria and Slovenia want to help by taking over some #COVID19 patients for treatment...
Some states (France, Israel, Germany) have aggreed to provide vaccines to Czechia.
english.radio.cz/countries-send…
At least in the case of Bavaria, the offer to help #Czechia with vaccines isn´t completely altruistic...

#Bavaria hopes, Czechia will vaccinate work commuters (who work in Germany)...
onetz.de/deutschland-we…
Today,
strict entry rules come into force for those from "Area of #Variant Concern" #Moselle (France), who wish to enter #Germany.
There´ll be no border checks, but mobile controls.
A ´negative´ test must be shown on any request.

Public transport stops.
republicain-lorrain.fr/economie/2021/…
Harsh words from the #Moselle/#Germany border region. They´re disappointed all their ideas "hadn´t been recognized".
"Berlin´s decision is brutal and ill prepared"🙄

(Actually, it was prepared.
In an ordinance from January to prevent spread of #Variants)
At least, the stop for trans-border public transport might be revised (as the ordinance needs to be reviewed tomorrow anyway).

(Maybe require every traveller to show a ´negative´ test?
But France already said this amount of testing would be impossible)🤷
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/service/gesetz… Image
Meanwhile,
Germany´s #Germersheim district had a little note in their daily statistics:

"This weekend, there was one re-infection".

Usually the "exotic" variants (#B1351, #P1,...) do that. (They had already mentioned those variants are present, there).
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
The tests for those who wish to cross the border from #Moselle to Germany have commenced today.

Some try to get a test in their home town,
some at the border.
Everyone´s waiting.

This needs to be redone every 48 hours.
(Wait for next monday´s chaos...🙄)
Meanwhile #Moselle´s prefect states:

"The situation in Mosellle is getting better...
last week, our incidence peaked at 315, today it´s just 284...

(No.🤦
Don´t ever try to fool people - it´s just a bad idea and will backfire)
This is,
what the "positive development" in #Moselle looks like.

Being not overly critical, one could say: it stays the same...
an incidence of ~300.
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
This is, what´s behind the "positive trend" of
#Moselle´s ´not rising case numbers´:
1) testing has been greatly reduced
2) it´s school holidays! (12 days, already).
🧐
Shall we look at the positivity rate...In the next tweet - just for fun???
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
😕 sorry, no fun...

Since last week,
positivity rate in #Moselle has started to go up.
As it does in entire France,
or also in the departement Nord.

(looks like things are actually getting worse,
casewise, everywhere...)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
The situation in #France´s departement ´Nord´ isn´t good at all:
the incidence in Dunkerque has just surpassed 1.000
and while the had tried to use mutual aid of neighboring cities, they now have just started to transfer first patients out of the region...
lepharedunkerquois.fr/109159/article…
#Austria has announced, they also have two (smaller) towns with an incidence above 1.000.

To prevent entire districts from locking down, they decided:
Everyone who wants to leave these towns needs a mandatory test.
Military will be staffing checkpoints.
service.salzburg.gv.at/lkorrj/detail?… Image
Tromsø (#Norway) has 44 infected with #B117.
But they think, it´s "under control".

"We have always dealt with the latest infections as if it were the ´UK´ variant"
but "If we can't detect the infection early enough,...we may quickly lose control"
nrk.no/tromsogfinnmar…
At the moment, #COVID19 spreads in #Norway with variable speeds:
in some regions it´s steady,
in Oslo, it seems to speed up.
While the country´s average is R~1.3,
Oslo has a local R-number of 1.55
📈
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
This shows, where most people got infected in #Oslo, last week...

1) at home (by family members, I suppose)
2) at workplace
3) at school / kindergarten (students)

The week before, 47 students got infected, now it was 158 (!)
📈
oslo.kommune.no/getfile.php/13… Image
There might be some mistakes in this text, as it is autotranslated...
but various sources confirm: the situation in #Czechia is really as surealistic as it describes.
😮
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/k… Image
Hospitals in #Czechia are overwhelmed.
One after the other declares their "incapabiity to treat".
Only real emergencies will be treated.

Anyone else will have to wait.
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/k…
#Czechia´s Health Minister just announced:
- a work order for all healthcare workers to help and treat #COVID19 patients.
- it may finally be possible to transfer patients to other countries
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/c…
#Slovakia has two key points:

~ It´s not all the new variants´fault: "there are other countries that had variants earlier, and they still do fine"

~ "our biggest mistake: trusting in antigen tests as a weekly surveillance. They´re not made for this!"

irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/pe…
#Germany´s governments have been fighting hard, until late at night.
They now finally came up with a plan.
A promise of "more normality and safe contacts"...

one major pillar is:
ONE #ANTIGEN TEST PER WEEK
(voluntary)
🤦
(in Slovakia, this turned out bad)
bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/… Image
#Germany´s reopening plan.

It´s defined by incidence numbers
and fixed dates.

Not one trace left of #COVID19 contact tracing.

It resembles an addict´s elaborately planned path to demise.
Promising to stop, when it gets too bad
No warning shall be heard.
bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/aktuel… Image
Oh yes,
we should keep an eye on that.

#France´s Pas-de-Calais departement (next to Dunkerque) is now also seeing rapidly rising #COVID19 case numbers.
It seems to spread into the country.

Residents of 23 departements are asked not to leave their areas.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
Another measure in #France´s 23 "risk areas":

large / medium size shopping centres will have to close.
#France will bring 10.000 doses to Pas-de-Calais.

"General mobilization: mayors, caregivers, hospitals - everyone must be on the bridge, including on weekends, to vaccinate as quickly as possible.
We have entered a race against time in the epidemic..."
"Yes, #France sees rising #COVID19 numbers.
But it´s not -at least not for the moment- the exponential growth that some models had predicted..."
Meanwhile,
#Austria is "alarmed" by recent #COVID19 developments.
After reopening schools and shops (with some testing) ~4 weeks ago,
case numbers are surging, now...
nachrichten.at/politik/innenp…
Not all too surprising,
a growing number of #Austria´s kids is starting to get #COVID19 infected.

(with schools open, 5-14 year olds form a major part of new infections! 5-24 year olds make up for ~26% of all new infections)
orf.at/stories/320397…
Maybe #COVID19 statistics starting at the age of "0 years" are missing one point...
#stillbirths
🙄And... if my test turns out ´positive´, you will still let me out again, will you?
Hello... HELLO 😱aaaaaaaaaah

(I´ll take the swab instead, thanks)
They say "everything will be fine,
-we will vaccinate" (a bit more, starting in ~4 weeks)
-we will provide tests for everyone, once a week" (they don´t have them, yet)

But the grand reopening will start on Monday.
🙄👉📈
Image
Reopening, all the while this is happening in Baden-Württemberg:

R~1.12
1070 new #COVID19 cases detected
638 of them are #Variant cases (mostly #B117)

gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/DE/Fachinf… Image
The promise of "more normality"
already unleashed its power today:
one cashier needed to constantly remind customers: "take a cart, please"
no distancing anymore, windows shut ("its´s cold")
workers openly refusing to wear a mask
...
all because "everything will be normal, soon"
~Respect the dominance...~

A major shift in #Germany´s quarantine guidelines:
from now on, EVERY #COVID19 case will be treated as an infection with a #Variant.
(quarantine-wise)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Toxic.

"A PUNISHMENT for all"
"Our state DENIES us the reopening many of us DESERVE".

(followed by a hint that neighboring states will well open shops etc, and it´s "just outside our doorstep" (i.e.: we´ll go there))
insuedthueringen.de/inhalt.keine-l… Image
Note:
this dark red blob of incidences above 100 is #Thuringia, the area that the paper´s comment felt was being "denied its well deserved reopenings"...
🤷
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Another "pilot project" in Karlsruhe, #Germany,
trying to evaluate if it´s possible to register #COVID19 in wastewater and maybe put the results to use for timely outbreak detection.

They really found something...
ka-news.de/region/karlsru…
The article claims, that #Karlsruhe´s wastewater surveillance project detected a larger outbreak at a meat packing plant (69 infected, so far).
ka-news.de/region/karlsru… Image
Of course, #Marseille´s fire brigade is still doing wastewater analysis for #COVID19 tracking (and variant determination),
but they also do other pandemic-fighting jobs...
About a week ago, #Marseille´s mayor challenged #France´s president:

"I want to vaccinate 10.000 people per week - just send me the vaccines and I´ll do it"...

"curfews or lockdowns won´t eradicate the virus. Only collective immunity can do that..."
lepoint.fr/politique/vacc…
Surprisingly ~19.000 supplementary doses arrrived in the region around #Marseille, yesterday...
They will have to be applied quickly.

So, what do you do?
Call the fire brigade!

60 firefighters have set up a mobile vaccination point,
The region around #Marseille has ~5 million inhabitants, so ~19.000 doses of vaccine won´t do much.
But Marseille is already planning to go big - a huge stadium shall be prepared as a vaccination center.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
#Austria has enjoyed one month of eased #COVID19 restrictions.

Back to school (with tests)
Shops, museums, etc. open (with FFP2 masks)
Hairdressers etc. open (with test and FFP2 mask)

Still: curfew 8 pm - 6 am
Reduced contacts (2 families)
(in theory) Image
A week ago #Austria´s "Wiener Neustadt" was at the top of accelerating #COVID19 increase.

"It´s not as tragic as the press says..."
"Of course, with the openings case numbers rise again"

Mayor:
"We see infections now happen among friends" (more contacts)
noe.orf.at/stories/309282…
Only 2 days later, a complete seal-off of Wiener Neustadt (#Austria) was discussed.

Much to their relieve, this was changed into
"mandatory test for leaving the city".
Spot controls.
As soon as enough tests are available.
Earliest: end of coming week🙄
noen.at/wr-neustadt/wi…
#Austria´s Health Minister issued a statement:

WIth the current measures in🇦🇹, reproduction factor for transmission of the wildtype #SARSCoV2 virus would be R~1.
For the #B117 variant it is R~1.2.
(And #B117´s share is 58.4% of current infections)

😕👉📈
ots.at/presseaussendu…
Meanwhile, Austria´s neighbor #Czechia has (finally) accepted offers to send critical patients to three other countries.

Many (doctors, regional officials, citizens,...) had urged for this. Until recently the official reply was "we can do it alone"
#Czechia has received ~30.000 doses of #COVID19 vaccine from other european states.

This will certainly be appreciated, as doses are also scarce in the donating countries.

But a large delivery of vaccines might soon arrive from somewhere else: from China
In the past 2 weeks, #Moselle´s (France) incidence has dropped from ~310 to ~260, despite the high circulation of the #B1351 variant.

Conicidently,
school holidays had started, 2 weeks ago (February 20)...
🤔
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Holidays are over in #Moselle.
School will start again, tomorrow.

Authorities´ plan:
they´re aiming for 11.000 tests per week.

(on a side note: Moselle will have 180.000 students back at #school, tomorrow...
🤨so, a student gets tested every ~16 weeks?)
francebleu.fr/infos/educatio…
On the other hand...
the 2 week decline in #COVID19 case numbers in #Moselle also coincides with a rapid drop in testing.

(while positive rate rose from 5.4 to 6.7%.
That trend is turning: test re-up⤴️, positivity⤵️)
🤔
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
The increase of testing in #Moselle might come from Germany´s entry protocol: if you come from Moselle, you need to show a ´negative´ test result, every time.

Maybe the pool of commuting trans-border workers is remarkably un-infected, so positivity drops?
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
You!
Yeah, you, who start gathering in groups again, now.
And you, who are planning for family assemblies in ~3 weeks!

This "when you are fully vaccinated" story plays in a distant future (for the most of us).
You´re still a vulnerable human, until then!
Today felt like back in childhood days, when everyone tried to be like their idols and imitated them.
Today´s idols are those who are vaccinated and "can do what they like to".

🙄Okay: you´ll behave like you´re not vaccinated, yet - and I´ll accept that I can´t fly like superman
2 days ago,
250 people rallied at #Germany´s border to #Moselle.
They were demonstrating against mandatory #COVID19 tests.

Some found it unfair, that only commuters from #France needed those tests, not the Germans coming to France...
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/grand-est/mose…
Dear Mosellan(e)s:

From tomorrow on, the city of Tübingen (#Germany) introduces mandatory antigen tests for EVERYONE FROM OUTSIDE THE CITY (if they come frome a german district with an incidence higher than 50).

See, it´s fair.
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/31… Image
The city of Tübingen will provide antigen tests for "foreigners" for free.

Visitors from outside the city will need to take the test at one of the city´s official testing stations (don´t bring your "foreign" test result, it won´t be accepted.)
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/31… Image
In #Austria's Wiener Neustadt, everyone will need to show a 'negative' test, if they want to leave the city, from today.

They're planning to have the needed capacity for 15.000 tests per day by saturday (so fines will only start then).

Yesterday,
#France has published official datasets on #Variants´ distribution.

people have been mining them until deep in the night.
They found some interesting (some worrying) details...
During #Moselle´s school holidays (since Feb20), daily cases of all variants have been declining - including #B1351 (!)

BUT NOT #B117.
Even with those restrictions, the ´UK´ variant managed to creep up to a 28.8% share.

(schools have reopened, yesterday)
There *seems to be* some amazing behaviour, for example in Alpes-Maritimes:

(detected) "case numbers decline, even if the share of #B117 goes up".

Maybe this is no miracle or anomaly...
The steady / declining (detected) case numbers in Moselle / Alpes-Maritimes don´t seem to correlate to the share of B117. That´s true.

But they correlate to this:
The rapid decline of test numbers in these prefectures, in this exact period (since Feb20)🤔
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
#Estonia,
with its ~1.3 million inhabitants roughly the size of a large city, sees some serious rise in #COVID19.

(nearly as bad as Czechia)
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
#Estonia´s fresh data shows that the more aggressive British variant (#B117) of the coronavirus is spreading more seriously in Estonia than previously predicted.
Our medical system is in a crisis,...”
kriis.ee/en/news/strict… Image
Ambulance call-outs every 20 minutes, in Tallinn (#Estonia) - "it´s like the intervention peak at New Year´s Eve, but it goes on and on,..."
"The situation will reach meltdown if the general public does not follow the restrictions.
news.err.ee/1608135754/tal…
Tallinn (#Estonia) mayor calls for coronavirus national emergency situation...
news.err.ee/1608135892/tal…
Who would have thought:
the ´South Africa´ variant (#B1351) doing the same thing it did in South Africa,
in Bodø, northern #Norway (just north of the Arctic Circle)...

it´s making young people "really sick".
"Scary".
nrk.no/nordland/koron… Image
"The spread of #COVID19 in #Czechia is slowing down. Reproductive number dropped below R~1 after a month"

A month.
This devastating wave took only one month to build up.

It may receed, soon.
But it leaves hospitals full. Over capacity full.
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/k…
#Czechia has now transferred a first patient from Pardubice (a bit east of the capital Prague) to Racibórz (#Poland).

A ride of 3-4 hours.
Hospitals in entire Czechia are full.
#Denmark´s Health Minister is happy that their current Reproduction number is R~1, even with #B117 being 80% of all new infections.

"That´s a good base for more controlled reopenings"...
#Norway is seeing wide differences in #COVID19 spread behaviour.
The range of regional Reproduction numbers is quite wide from R~0.46 (Innlandet, north of Oslo)
to R~1.54 (! in Oslo)

fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
Here´s how different #variants are distributed across #Norway.

(Oslo "only" has ~50% of #B117, but here, this variant plays a major role.) Image
This is, what #B117 does:

#Norway found, that outbreaks started to occur at kindergartens.
There had hardly been any cases before...
(orange line)

With schools, there had also been outbreaks earlier, with other variants.
But #kindergartens - that´s new.
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
Germersheim (#Germany) invested a lot of time to find the sources of their recent #B117 outbreaks.

Hey, you "no one has ever been infected while shopping" proclaimers:
👇
Major infection source is/was
IN SUPERMARKETS
AND IN FRONT OF THEM!
🧬🛒😮
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
I was quiet about #Moselle, recently.
This might be about to change...

"We have ~60 inpatients,...all are in very serious conditions.
We are reaching very high levels, similar to the first wave."
(Sarreguemines)
radiomelodie.com/actu/15029-sar…
#Italy is adapting to a near #COVID19 future:
Earlier, there simply was 1st and 2nd class on trains.

Now, there are
"COVID-free" trains (everyone needs a test to board it)

and one
"Health train" (for intensive care transports of #COVID19 patients)
ansa.it/english/news/g…
#Italy modified a former "IC" (Interity) train into ICU (Intensive Care Unit) on rails.

with 21 ventilation beds
negative pressure rooms
generators and back-up
oxygen supply
beds for medical staff

It can be deployed all over Europe, if the need arises.
fsitaliane.it/content/fsital…
From the outside, Italy´s new "ICU train" doesn´t look as fancy as the TGV "Medic trains", used by France, last year.

But the inside is far beyond the make-shift approach (brancards strapped onto seats), used in earlier emergency situations.

Have a look!
While entire #France´s positivity rate stays stable at ~7%,
#Moselle sees its positivity abruptly coming down to ~4.3%.

🤔that´s noteworthy. Image
3 senators in #France have written to #Germany and the french Senate to propose a plan:

they want to do away with the regular testing for border crossing commuters.
"Just vaccinate them all !"
actu.fr/societe/corona…
#Ireland:
"The decrease is slower than in the last wave - that's because of the dominance of #B117 and it's higher transmissibility"

"In the recent days, we saw an uptick in cases. We're looking into that, whether it might be the beginning of something."
#Ireland:
"Around the time that any increase of mobility might have had its impact, we're seeing numbers that are somewhat higher than we would expect."

(Carefully saying: more 'activity' last week might show up in more cases, today.)
This is,
what´s causing concern to Ireland.

That tiny notch at the end of the curve.
It could be nothing. Or it could be a very bad sign.
gov.ie/en/collection/… Image
This is,
what could be driving the new increase in case numbers in Ireland:

"In early January, only 50% worked at their workplace. Now that number is up to ~60%.
It´s marginal changes like this, that could have a huge impact."
(+schools, but not so much).
assets.gov.ie/126432/231a772… Image
#Ireland has a clear idea, who is driving the pandemic.
"It´s the mobile adults".

So the deal is:
children shall all be back to school, next week.
But their parents are urged to stay at home.

🤔that´s an ...interesting approach.
rte.ie/news/newslens/… Image
While Ireland worries about a tiny "Notch" and tries to balance its way through the reopenings,
#Germany sees a veritable jump and doesn´t seem to care too much.
(that graph is not very accurate, but shows the picture. Today´s 7-day-incidence is ~72.)
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
#Germany´s current "leading" #COVID19 hotspot (Greiz) claims:

"that increase comes from school & kindergarten kids.
We never tested them before.
Now that we test them, they make up 30% of all new cases".🙄

(Incidence is ~330 in Greiz district)...
mdr.de/video/mdr-vide…
It was quiet,
so you thought, everything would be fine, in #France?
🧐
"the situation in the region around Paris is especially worrying. The hospitals see admissions close to the peaks of last year´s March".
Image
#France:
"Major transfers of patients to other regions are currently being prepared and could take place as early as this weekend.
We are talking about dozens or even hundreds of patients who could be evacuated from Ile-de-France..."
😕
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/paris-ile-de-f…
#France has a suspicion:
the ´South Africa´ and ´Brazil´variants are under control at the moment.

But the ´UK´ variant #B117 is the most common, right now.
And it seems to cause more severe cases, quickly filling up the hospitals.
bfmtv.com/sante/olivier-…
Something interesting is happening in #Moselle, the #B1351 hotspot in Fance:

Cases are decreasing.
Even the share of the ´Brazil´ variant is getting smaller.

Current measures seem to work...
but not against #B117, which is accelerating its rise.
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
#Germany seems to slowly wake up from its "we´ve got it under control" dream.

"Incidence in under 15´s is increasing"
"We see an increase in outbreaks at kindergartens"
"This could be caused by #B117"

(but reopening plans don´t change, for now...)
rnd.de/politik/wieler…
Yes, the outbreaks are starting in #Germany.
One of many examples:
#Karlsruhe opened a basic school service ~2 weeks ago.
Now an outbreak at a kindergarten (18 infected) is causing concern: some older siblings are students at a larger school, nearby...
bnn.de/karlsruhe/karl…
For #Karlsruhe, any further increase in cases would bring the risk to cross the magic "incidence 100" line.

Shops would need to close again (after just 2 weeks open), night curfew may be imposed,...
gesundheitsatlas-bw.de/dataviews/repo… Image
In #Germersheim,
incidence has gone down far enough, to try to reopen some institutions.
But one thing will remain:
Masks in certain outdoor spaces.

"We found that the #B117 variant is capable to infect very fast - even in outdoor settings"(!!!)
😮😷
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
#France has already started #COVID19 patients´ transfers from full hospitals.
After several interregional transfers,
patients are now also being brought to #Belgium...

We thought it would be over - now it suddenly looks like last year´s nightmare, again.
#Germany´s RKI has published an official outlook.

We´re in week 10,
(real life reports only available up to week 9, so far, marked with an "x")

We´re running into a wall,
end of next week.

4 weeks from now,
it will be worse than the last wave.
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
RKI´s "bad case scenario" for #Germany is depending on our behaviour.
Of course, it won´t stay the same:

- tests are scarce
- no concept for isolation / surveillance
- vaccination chaos,...
+opening more schools on monday

We´re about to make it worse.
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
The #COVID19 transfers from Paris region to other parts of #France has begun.
3 ICU patients are flown out, this morning.
But more will be on the way, soon. Saying is: 300-400 may need to go.
The idea behind the patients transfer sounds like a cold calculation:

Reconfinement of Paris would cause immense economic (and political) damage. It has to be avoided at any cost.

With transfers, hospitals can take in patients and will never become full.
franceinter.fr/amp/politique/… Image
This news on AstraZeneca´s #vaccine and serious effects is making the rounds on the internet, now.

Reading #Norway´s reports,
this might be an unfolding event...
Details from #Norway´s FHI on the 3 healthcare workers:

all 3 have a "very unusual disease picture",
consisting of bleeding,
blood clots (in unusual places), and
low platelet count in the blood.

(these are rather paradoxical symptoms...)
🤨
nrk.no/norge/tre-hels…
Treatment of the 3 healthcare workers is difficult, due to the contradictive symptoms.

Blood clots would call for blood thinning medics.
But the bleeding would be worsened, due to low platelet count in the blood...

"It´s a balancing act".
nrk.no/norge/tre-hels… Image
#Norway´s Health Institute FHI and the Norwegian Medicines Agency have issued an urgent statement on the status of suspected adverse reactions in connection with the #AstraZeneca vaccination, this afternoon...

an.no/fhi-hasteinnka…
#Norway´s authorities are urging everyone who received #AstraZeneca´s vaccine and finds
-small dots of bleeding skin
-small or large black/blue marks
to immediately seek medical attendance.

⚠️"This is severe and can be a sign of decreased platelet count"
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/m… Image
Vaccination can play a good role in #Norway´s fight against #COVID19.

The current surge in cases now mostly happens in the younger population.
(Oslo, for example had vaccinated all nursing home residents in January - with Biontech´s vaccine, I think).
vg.no/spesial/corona/ Image
Knowing that it´s mostly the younger population who gets infected now, makes this graph particulary worrying.

Norway´s #COVID19 case numbers have more than doubled in a week.
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
Also worrying:
Hospital admissions in #Norway are definitely increasing.

(remember: it´s mostly the younger population, who gets infected, now).
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
#Norway´s communities are now drastically changing their approach on #COVID19:

(Aukra community)
"All passengers who had used #school bus No.3 and their families have to #quarantine."

For how long?
"We´ll tell you later..."
aukra.kommune.no/aktuelt/oppdat… Image
#France is speeding up patient transfers in an attempt to keep Paris region from collapsing without lockdown.

6 patients per day.
And TGV🚄"Medic Trains" will be used again, end of next week...
#France´s education minister is thinking about closing school canteens.
"Canteens are the weak (infection) point in the school day"

It may sound logical, but it also implies a huge social problem.
And that´s one of the reasons why schools were kept open.
bfmtv.com/sante/jean-mic…
#Norway´s FHI says
"We have a problem"
Infections among Oslo region´s youth is growing so fast, that they fear they won´t be able to trace all contacts, soon.

"~We urgently need to get this under control. They infect their families..."
abcnyheter.no/nyheter/norge/…
"It´s the young ones (in kindergarten and school)", said #Germany´s Greiz district, 3 days ago.

Their #COVID19 incidence was ~300, back then.
Today it shot straight up to ~500.
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
Read the headline and was delighted.
Then I read the text.

It feels like the typical horror setting, where evil is quietly watching its unheeding prey...
😨
you may shout at the screen,
but the characters won´t take note.
😫
rte.ie/news/coronavir…
Ireland:
#COVID19 cases are rising steadily

73% of the new cases were people under 45.
Median age of those newly diagnosed was 29.

"What's happened really is... clearly people are coming together more and not so much frightened of the hospital figures"🙄
Image
#COVID19 seems to be out of control in #Oslo.
Although the city has already applied strict measures, case numbers have doubled within a week.

Probably behind this: #B117 and its effect in the younger population.

(🤔we´ve seen this before..., in Portugal)
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
Just like it was in Portugal, Norway decided that
"the last thing to close would be the #schools".

#Oslo now says:
it may now be the time to apply that last resort measure.

They´re thinking about closing schools for weeks.
nrk.no/nyheter/stenge…
In January:
Portugal had done everything they were willing to do. Case numbers still didn´t go down.

So they took to the final measure:
closing all schools.

(not only reducing school activity, but also keeping parents at home)
A week later, cases dropped
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
Today,
#Portugal´s elementary schools reopen again.

1.5 million additional people will be having contacts again (students, teachers, parents, staff,...)

There´ll be some testing for teachers.
Masks? "Washable FFP2" - use will be voluntary for students.
publico.pt/2021/03/15/soc…
#Germany´s Drug Administration (#PEI) advises to halt all current #AstraZeneca vaccinations.

They found a "peculiar accumulation" of cases with
-bloodclots in unusual places (brain/stroke)
-low blood platelets
-bleeding

(exactly what Norway said earlier)
pei.de/DE/newsroom/hp… Image
Also not suspended:
Opening of more schools in #Germany, today.

elementary schools with
no distancing
no masks
test? organize yourself.

New: 11/12 year olds are also back in full class lessons, with "distancing, where possible"
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
There was the mayor of Pirmasens (#Germany),
saying:

"~We may have the highest incidence (~154) in our state, BUT 44% OF NEW CASES ARE FROM OUTBREAKS AT KINDERGARTENS.

SHOPS have nothing to do with that, so we´ll leave them open" (+no curfew, etc)
🤨
pirmasens.de/rathaus/presse… Image
Apparently, the state (Rhineland-Palatinate) wasn´t in favor of #Pirmasens mayor´s "individual interpretation" of lockdown rules.
😠
They now ordered the city to strictly follow the prescribed lockdown scheme...💢
rheinpfalz.de/lokal/pfalz-ti…
The mayor of (nearly locked down again) #Karlsruhe (Germany):
"closing shops and museums would be wrong - those venues have good hygiene concepts... most infections happen in workplaces, kindergartens and schools. They need more testing..."
bnn.de/karlsruhe/karl…
#Germersheim district (Karlsruhe´s neighbor) is already experimenting with kids testing themselves at one elementary school in Ottersheim.

Today, they really found something...
rpr1.de/nachrichten/re…
"There´s one positive case at Ottersheim elementary school. All contacts are being quarantined, now.

(Not clear if the case is a kid (testing themselves) or someone else...)
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
One week ago,
Germersheim warned that transmission of current infections had not only happened in supermarkets, but also (mostly) in the settings surrounding increased shopping mobility.
(like: smalltalk, if you bump into a friend)...
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
Medical manager of #Karlsruhe´s Clinic Center judges:
"we have an incidence ~100.
People running into shops like crazy.
This will not go well..."

They already see slightly rising hospital admissions and prepare for (far) worse.
ka-news.de/region/karlsru…
Meanwhile,
#Pirmasens´ webpage shows no sign of giving in to state´s demand to strictly follow lockdown rules and close all shops.

"Shops will remain open"

No further statement on the website.
but the mayor gave an interview to the press (next tweet)...
pirmasens.de/rathaus/presse… Image
#Pirmasens Mayors´ views:

"It wasn´t the shops who caused the outbreaks, it was kindergartens"
"Only one bed in our intensive care is occupied"
"The sick are mostly young people and they have mild symptoms"

"If it gets worse, we´ll take measures"...

🤔
tagesspiegel.de/politik/auf-de…
The comparison to addictive behaviour again:
Seems, we´re in the denial phase:

"It´s not as bad as you all say"
"You all don´t know what´s working for me"
"I promise (again): if it gets worse, I´m gonna stop with it"

It´s usually the path to a crash.
A completely different approach:
#Tübingen enjoys low case numbers (incidence <50 so far).
They have introduced mandatory "entry testing".

They will now open outdoor gastronomy, cinemas, theatres (with entry tests), as a trial.
🧐(worth to keep an eye on)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Tübingen´s concept:
EVERYONE (including local citizens)
who wants to visit shops in the city´s center, go to the hairdresser, cinema, etc
needs to present a "ONE DAY TEST PASS".

Tests are available for free at 6 test stations.
(rapid antigen tests)
tuebingen.de/tagesticket#/3… Image
#Tübingen (Germany) is now trying to live what #Netherlands´ employers´ association dreams of, since November:

The concept of a "tested society":
Phase 3 - nearly everything will reopen to those who show a daily ´negative´ test.
vno-ncw.nl/nieuws/ingrid-…
In the #Netherlands,
the "tested society" idea regained speed, as it became public that ~26 million rapid antigen tests were left unused.

(Public health service said:
"~No way we´re doing these tests for reopening.
Our job is strictly anti-pandemic.")
🤷
trouw.nl/zorg/ggd-onze-…
An urgent bulletin from #France's Health Directorate:

a new #Variant has been identified in several cases in Brittany.
It's unclear what it does, yet.

But it is so heavily 'mutated', that standard PCR tests won't find it...
With no #AstraZeneca, there´ll be no vaccination for teachers.

"We have no vaccine and rising incidence rates with new variants..." - the mayor of #Dortmund (Germany) drew a line, this morning:
"...there´s no sense in this. We will close schools tomorrow"
dortmund.de/de/leben_in_do…
State´s response to Dortmund:

"I can´t imagine closing schools with an incidence below 100.
If #Dortmund can´t think of anything better than closing schools at an incidence of 72, my ministry will reject this, so kids can go to school tomorrow..."

#Dortmund´s incidence may be "just 72", today.
But the "magic 100" doesn´t seem too far away...

Just note the near vertical increase today: 95 new cases.
(a week ago the day´s count was 49).
dortmund.de/de/leben_in_do… Image
#Dortmund just announced that today´s 95 new cases are rising their incidence to ~79,6...
📈⤴️
dortmund.de/de/leben_in_do… Image
Nevertheless, #Dortmund posts:

"Upon order of the state, we will provide in-classroom-teaching tomorrow.
We still think schools should be closed and will come forward with new measures..." Image
How´s it going in #Pirmasens (different state)?

"State forces us to enact protective measures"

The details in this agitative text...
oh, just read it yourself. I should have stopped after reading the headline.
pirmasens.de/leben-in-ps/bu… Image
A hospital in Oslo (#Norway) is investigating the death of one healthcare worker after vaccination with #AstraZeneca:

"The results are starting to come in, and we're starting to get circumstantial evidence that there may be a connection".
(no conclusion)
tv2.no/nyheter/138919…
Extraordinary:

Germany´s #Greiz district´s incidence still increases.
This morning:
525.7
 (highest in #Germany)

It was ~70, 4 weeks ago.

There´s a very special explanation for this...
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
#Greiz:
"4 weeks ago, we had diffuse cases. No source was known.
Then we realized: many education personnel was among the infected.
So we tested the kids.

In a group of 4-6 year olds: all of them were infected.
Their parents too. And their contacts."
And while Greiz found that kids infect their families and family´s contacts,
a court in Baden-Württemberg just cancelled the ´#Quarantine for Contacts of Contacts´.

"There´s no sufficient proof the infection chain
kid A->kid B->family B
really happens"
🙄
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
The Mayor of Dortmund (who had been forced to open schools) announced today:

- There´s still no vaccination
- We received tests - exactly: ONE test per kid (for a 2 week period)
He still wants to close schools
"We need to prevent a situation like UK had"
dortmund.de/de/leben_in_do… Image
Flixbus thinks it´s a good idea to restart its tourbusses in #Germany, next week.

Only restriction: passengers will need to wear a mask.

no distancing,
no testing

(note: in a plane, 2 rows around a case would be considered "close contacts", mask or not)
flixbus.de/streckennetz-u… Image
#Norway just found out:
7 infected people had been taking a #bus, last sunday.
🚌
They shared the 4 hour ride with 64 passengers.
Masks are also mandatory on busses, there.
😷
(We might soon see, how well it worked...)
nrk.no/sorlandet/syv-…
#Denmark says
"the share of #B117 has now reached ~93% of all new infections..."
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
#Denmark calculated the effect of reopened stores and outdoor activities since March 1 (grey line)

Now they calculated how much worse it would be, if they also opened boarding schools and highschools (red):
5% worse.

left: cases
right: hospital admission
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Note: #Demark also calculated a version with slightly less effective measures (Rref 0,8 instead of 0,75, like when not everyone follows the rules...)

🙄well, the good news is:
it may still be over by ~July.
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
The European Commission is "strongly encouraging" all member states to install extensive #wastewater surveillance for #SARSCoV2 tracers (and Variant detection!).

"It can provide important information". The goal is a european outbreak early warning network
ec.europa.eu/environment/pd… Image
Meanwhile,
researchers in #Germany still need to prove that wastewater surveillance could be useful in fighting #SARSCoV2.

Months ago, apllication started in other countries.
German authorities still claim:
"it´s just experimental studies, not usable"
🤦
dw.com/de/vertane-cha…
#Norway says:
"we think we have found the reason for the incidents with #AstraZeneca vaccinated patients:

Sometimes, the body´s immune response triggers antibodies to attack blood platelets. That might then form blood clots..."
nrk.no/norge/ous-fors…
While Europe´s EMA gives green light to use #AstraZeneca´s vaccine again, #Norway has it still on hold:
"We want to be sure - and we do have other vaccine options, too."
nrk.no/norge/ema-gav-…
So far,
#Norway has had
84.025 known #COVID19 infections,
648 of them died.

120.000 #AstraZeneca vaccinations,
2 of them died.

But they think they have enough other, less risky vaccine options,
so the decision is easy.
vg.no/spesial/corona/ ImageImageImage
Helpless.
🤷
Baden-Württembergs "Quarantine for Contacts of Contacts" was created to get rapidly spreading outbreaks from school settings under control.

A court cancelled it, yesterday.
The state now "recommends" to "watch for symptoms" instead.
🤦
…zialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/pre… Image
Schrozberg in Baden-Württemberg is a tiny town (5.800 citizens).
They registered an incidence above 1.000, today.
Epicenter: the local #kindergarten.

8 staff got infected,
kids brought it into their families
and then it spread through town...
🤷
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Hopeless.
🙄
Most trains from Paris to (virtually anywhere) are booked out.

Everyone wants to escape the new confinement...
🚄🏃🏃‍♂️🏃‍♀️💨
to some place where you can forget about the nasty virus (or the fact that you might have carried it with you...)
The trains to the north of #France may not be in such high demand - that area will also be under "#reconfinement".

For one month.
bfmtv.com/societe/carte-… Image
#France has calculated sharply:

- some more shops will close
- but curfew will start 1 hour later
- people need a self-declaration to go out
- but they can do so in a 10 km radius
- schools stay open
- highschools split classes

That´ll do the trick.
🙄
paris.fr/pages/covid-19…
Pointless.

#France´s plan to simply "empty" hospitals in Paris region by transferring patients doesn´t work:

Few patients are "fit enough" to be transported.
Some are too heavy.
Some relatives didn´t give their agreement.

Transfers by TGV cancelled, now
rtl.fr/actu/bien-etre…
France´s education minister didn´t expect a quick calculating host:
"Current testings in classes say we have a contamination rate around 0.5%"😇

"THAT´S AN INCIDENCE of 500!
HIGHER THAN THE NATIONAL VALUE!
THIS MEANS IT´S CIRCULATING BIG-TIME IN SCHOOLS!"
bfmtv.com/politique/gouv… Image
Researchers in Germany/Austria confirm Norway´s findings:
#AstraZeneca may activate thrombocytes in the blood, causing them to coagulate and form clots.

They also say "we have an antidote to treat this.
Vaccination can continue..."
ndr.de/nachrichten/me…
In #Norway, last sunday, there were those 7 bus passengers who turned out to have been infected with #B117, during their 4 hour trip...

Luckily, that bus line is the ONLY one with distancing AND obligatory mask measures.
(Line 170, Hovden-Kristiansand).
akt.no/aktuelt/gjelde… Image
You know what?
The mask wearing and distancing on the #bus didn´t help.

During their 4 hour trip, the infected passengers managed to spread #B117 infections on the bus.
So far, 3 more passengers were found to have been infected during that trip...
#Norway
kristiansand.kommune.no/tema/korona/ko… Image
Now we know that masks and distancing don´t provide perfect protection on a #bus,
we will soon see how it works with NO distancing, just masks...:

The #B117-infected had also been using local busses,
where "shoulder to shoulder" is allowed
(#Norway)
kristiansand.kommune.no/aktuelt/2021/k… Image
#Greiz district (Germany) says the sudden surge in cases among kids is because they just started to test kids from kindergartens and schools, a few weeks ago.

Now, the incidences are:
Age 0-4: ~1.000
Age 5-9: ~1.000

The youngest ones are spreading it.
survstat.rki.de/Content/Query/… Image
That´s significant.
Seems #Japan doesn´t trust other nations to get the pandemic under control until July.

(I wonder if China will be excluded as well, somehow I don´t think so...)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
A silent, but significant change:

From tomorrow on,
#Germany will lift the "Area of Variant Concern" classification for #UK and #Ireland.

Simply because #B117 is now the dominating variant in Germany as well.

(UK, IRL will be classified as "risk areas")
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Norway:
last sunday, a #bus tour (line 170, Hovden-Kristiansand) started with 7 infected travellers entering the busses.

During the 4 hour ride (with obligatory distancing & masks) they passed their #B117 infection to (current status:) 8 other passengers
kristiansand.kommune.no/tema/korona/ko… Image
If you think you're done by vaccinating the "vulnerable":
the virus will thrive in the youth.

"We are already seeing the start of it"

"~If we (unlike other nations) accept #COVID19 to become endemic, we won't be able to go anywhere else in the world"
#Dortmund´s mayor still tries to close his #schools, due to "lack of tests for students, missing vaccinations for staff".

The state rejected another appeal, yesterday, since the city´s incidence was "below 100"
(it was ~97.7)
Since #Germany´s Baden-Württemberg gradually reopened #schools ~one month ago, #COVID19 among children is strongly increasing.

"They represent 20% of all new infections, now"

swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Last evening, in #Berlin:

1.000 guests.
Each of them tested with a rapid (antigen) test at the entrance,
by 45 medical staff.
Distancing. Masks.

One #Concert. 75 minutes.

It can be done,
if you have enough tests (and staff) to spare...
rbb24.de/kultur/thema/c…
The "tested society" in Tübingen (Germany) is still holding on:
while Tübingen district sees increasing case numbers (sending surrounding towns back into restrictions), Tübingen city itself has an incidence ~30.

Shops, Cinemas, etc still open (with test).
tagblatt.de/Nachrichten/In…
#Karlsruhe clinic management:
"~100% of all new #COVID19 patients are now #B117 cases.
The number of patients has doubled"

(2 weeks ago, they prepared to reduce COVID stations to low level - now they scale up to "LEVEL3 full pandemic response", again)
corona.karlsruhe.de/aktuell/x Image
~´The spread of B117 was dramatic, in the last 2 weeks.´

"We expect ICU admissions to rise considerably, soon.
#B117 is now hitting the younger ones, we see them in ICU, with ages starting below 50."

"People will not necessarily die - but will need ICU."
The news in #Germany is currently reporting about a study that says

"the incoming third #COVID19 wave will get worse than the waves before, if we don´t take measures".

What they don´t say:
HOW BAD it would get
(although the study is detailed on this)
🧐
Here´s the link to #Germany´s "Modus Covid Report":

docs.dpaq.de/17481-nagel202…

Their outlook:
Green line: if we keep behaving like today, Germany will experience a peak incidence of⚡️1.000~1.500⚡️around April~June.

Orange line: what would have happened without recent easing.
😠 Image
*IF* schools would fully reopen, with practically no testing (like today) Germany´s incidence might go up above 2.000.

"In reality, this would not happen. Politicians would notice and stop this immediately...", says the report.

(🤔Okay, researchers - I´ll trust your expertise!) Image
This is (unfortunately) an excessively optimistic model:
🙄
*IF* Germany would manage to test every schoolkid
once a week
AND EVERY WORKER, 3 times/week
AND they would reliably quarantine, if they were ´positive´...
#Germany´s incidence would STILL go higher than the last wave
😯 Image
Here´s an online-simulator,
showing the effects of single / combined measures on #Germany´s (Berlin´s) future incidence rate.

Try your best - save Berlin !

(note: this model assumes there´s unlimited cash and your citizens will do everything you say)
covid-sim.info/2021-03-17/tes… Image
3 (self-) tests per week.
#Austria has introduced it in some schools, a week ago.
bmbwf.gv.at/Themen/schule/… Image
#Austria is currently being flooded with #COVID19 tests.

(note: Only official PCR/Antigen tests counted here.

No self-tests / tests at schools. They don´t qualify as "entry test" for a visit at the hairdresser etc as well...)
orf.at/corona/daten/o… Image
The effect of #Austria´s testing-efforts:

"Despite having opened shops and schools...
our increase is only linear, not exponential"

😕
orf.at/corona/daten/o… Image
A view into #Germany´s Tübingen (daily testing required to enter shops, cinemas etc in the city):
"Last saturday, we did 7.000 rapid tests.
This took 100 helpers."😮

Tübingen city´s incidence is stable at ~30.

"The virus will come - but we will see it!"
deutschlandfunk.de/deutschland-in…
One business owner in #Germany found a loophole.
He dedicated 60% of his shop to (officially but not really) sell toilet paper.
So - while others have to close - it is regarded as "essential store" and is free to sell byproducts, like clothes...
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
My admiration for the "innovative" shop owner is limited.

There´s a reason why all "non-essential" shops needed to close, there.
Cases exploded over the weekend.
Authorities urged "to avoid all contact":

"The next wave isn´t coming - we´re right in it!"
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
Hey folks,
those who argue "we need to not look at the incidence rate alone"...

somehow, the curve for #COVID19 admissions to intensive care in #Germany is bending steeply upwards.

Got any suggestions for a better indicator for how serious things are ?
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
I just hit the browser´s refresh button and got shocked:

😱#France! What´s up?
Suddenly there´s a new colour for "incidence >400"
and the incidence >250 areas have grown a lot!

🤔You had a lot of data delay and piled it all into today, didn´t you?🙄
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
But then again...
when this sudden increase in #France is because of delayed data - then why is there no sign of that many missing cases in recent days ?

😯you mean... it´s really this serious ?!
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Multiple sources now saying:

#COVID19 incidence in Ile-de France has already matched the peak of the last wave"...

that went so fast😟
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
In Vienna (#Austria),
intensive care units are crowded with #B117 patients.

"It´s more aggressive.
Those who get seriously sick, do get seriously sick very fast."

And they are younger than before -
the average age of patients in ICU is now: 52 years.
orf.at/stories/320622…
#Norway confirms:
with #B117, the risk of needing hospital treatment is 2.6-fold higher than earlier, with the old variant.

In their current experience, this applies to ages from as young as 20 years...
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/b… Image
A little Easter-egg in #Germany´s new #COVID19 resolution:

Masks will become mandatory
in private cars🚗😷😷

(but only if the area you´re currently driving in has an incidence above 100)🙄
bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/… Image
A hollow egg:

Germany leaves schools & kindergartens open as they are now,
only "aiming to do 2 tests per week, as soon as possible"...

(still: there´s the absurd quarantine rule that only direct contacts will go into quarantine, while family members (parents, siblings) don´t). Image
This "Companies´ Self Obligation for Testing"-egg is smelly.

Experiences, so far:
🙃
"Tests are free at the pharmacy - go there, if you want one".
"Tests? Unless we´re not forced, we won´t even think about it"

(How about sharing 3 tests a week between:
office/public/self-test?) Image
Latest numbers from #France were not a statistical mistake.
😟
Hospitals in #Paris region are already full with severe #COVID19 cases.
"We are running straight into the wall...
Everywhere, it's full, full, full."
bfmtv.com/sante/on-va-dr…
#France:
"The French hospital system could face an ´unprecedented violent shock´
in about three weeks,

if the country fails to curb its vertiginous rise in #COVID19 cases".

(Note: the current half-hearted ´confinement´ is in place for only ~3 days now.)
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
How the pandemic currently feels:

Trying the best, to keep people at bay,
detectors are blaring full alert -
and still there´s the one guy who thinks it´s fun to try and roast ham&eggs on the lava flow.
(and is kind of surprised as his pan gets swallowed)
ImageImage
Whooo, folks - our state has just issued the first report on #COVID19 cases at schools !
"out of 67.500 classes, only 177 had to completely stop in-class-teaching, due to infections.
(in further 646 cases only single persons were separated from the class)"
km-bw.de/,Lde/startseit…
Fun fact:
in Baden-Württemberg, there´s no planned routine-#testing of schoolkids, so far.

It is still "being prepared" to maybe start in ~3 weeks.
(Likely most of the cases they´ve found so far were found as close contacts of a symptomatic case...)
km-bw.de/site/pbs-bw-km… Image
This is for #France´s Paris region.
It´s not the #COVID19 case incidence.
This is already the occupation of hospitals with critical care patients.
😟
(posted by the Deputy Director of the Regional Health Authority)
Paris region´s Regional Health Authority Director adds:

~"Right now the 20-50 year olds have an incidence of 700~800.
This is not about ´the vulnerable´ anymore -
it´s about all of us."

Intensive care sees more & more young ones, without preconditions...
#Denmark announced a bold plan:
Danish society will fully open up,
once everyone over the age of 50 has received a first dose of vaccine.

(that was before France said they´re seeing "more & more under 50" taken to intensive care, today)

(autotranslated)
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0… Image
Even before vacciantion of ages 50+, #Denmark wants to reopen more (April 6).

A simulation run by Denmark´s #SSI shows:
this will increase hospital admisssions.

Seems they hope #B117 will react to seasonal effects with 75% of last year´s effect...
🙄
ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/… Image
#Austria sees:
vaccination works. (older age groups are not as affected as earlier anymore)

But also:
highest #COVID19 incidences have now moved into age groups of 5-24 years !
Image
There was nothing I wanted to tweet about that Easter-Total-Shutdown "plan" of Germany.

Now it has evaporated.
It has left us with nothing.

Not enough tests
Not enough vaccines
And no plan at all.

Just finger-pointing.
That won´t help.
#Norway´s FHI says:

~"With #B117, we will never get reproduction number R below 1, again
We brought it down from 1.6 to 1.1 - that´s all we could do.

The only way to get out of this now is vaccinating."
nrk.no/norge/fhi-tror…
While #Germany failed to install a 5 day "Easter-break" shutdown,

#Belgium has just chosen "the short pain" of an "Easter-break" of 4 weeks with:

Schools closed
Hairdressers closed
Curfew
Leasure travel prohibited
(was never part of Germany´s ´plan´🤷)
hln.be/dossier-corona…
As official, as it´s gonna get.
#Germany´s RKI:

"#COVID19 infections are on the rise.
Especially in children, who in turn spread infections and cause clusters."

~"In case of cases in kindergarten: close it down rapidly. Avoid spreading it to families!
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Germany´s courts are very busy with people with an "individual sense of righteousness", at the moment.

Cancelled today:
the 14 day quarantine for returnees from Areas of #Variant Concern.
(because "There´s no scientific prove that this is necessary...")
…tshof-baden-wuerttemberg.justiz-bw.de/pb/,Lde/909554… Image
#Germany´s churches (just ONE example below) were ´totally surprised´ that there was the idea to ask them the favour to maybe not hold easter masses in presence, this year.

"Naah... we don´t want to change.
It all worked fine on X-Mas."
(note: ante #B117)
Now that #Germany´s ´total-shutdown plan´ has imploded altogether,
churches are relieved:

"We certainly will go on with in-presence masses, while following all the measures we have installed."

That certainly sounds very reasonable...
If you look in Detail, the catholic church is really well prepared:

"~Everyone participating (in/near choir performance) needs to sign a liability exclusion.
😇
Be informed that despite measures, an outbreak could cause authorities to quarantine you".
drs.de/fileadmin/user… Image
To my delight,
there are also several constructive proposals of local church chapters, all over #Germany.

One example:
a testing center in a church hall
operating since February.

Couldn´t we combine this with some very special, individual ceremony? No?🤷
stuttgart-evangelisch.de/meldungen/coro…
#Japan feels safe.
The last #COVID19 wave has receeded so far that the State of Emergency around Tokyo was lifted.

But one foreign "guest", is not sticking to the rules and disturbs the harmony: #B117.
The ´UK´ variant´s spread is showing up, now...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
In recent days, the detected cases of #B117 are rapidly surging, in #Japan.

Some clusters in childcare have been found.
26.4% of all #Variant cases are in children and teens, right now.

(so far, Japan is only checking 5-10% of cases for variants)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
The mayor of #Sapporo says they can already see #B117 affecting hospitals.
"Earlier, about 10% of the infected needed urgent care. That number is now ~33%, due to the new variant".
uhb.jp/news/single.ht… Image
Some of #Japan´s prefectures already see rapidly rising cases, again.
While Tokyo lifted it´s State of Emergency, #Miyagi prefecture (further north) declared it´s own Emergency.

For obvious reasons...
sendai-nct.ac.jp/20210319-2/ Image
One city in #Japan´s Ehime prefecture is especially worried.
A sudden surge in cases,
60 cases in Matsuyama today alone. An all-time record, there.

nippon.com/en/japan-data/… Image
#Japan´s Ehime governor:

"We are already in the fourth wave.
It´s a completely new wave of mutant #variants, not just a rebound.
It is pushing to a scale that we never have experienced before"

This would be a "de facto declaration of emergency".
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
The reason for Matsuyama´s major #B117 cluster?
Keep in mind: there´s no lockdown in Japan.
Bars are open.
And cases have been low for quite a while - so it´s okay to have some fun.
No?
(The governor explicitly mentioned that those venues were cooperative)
Image
Why not have some fun, if you can?

#Germany´s (tiny) Saarland state has an incidence around 70 and receives ~80.000 doses of Biontech´s vaccine, to "protect it from #B1351 in neighboring Moselle" (which hasn´t spread much, so far).

They made a plan, now
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Saarland is planning its escape from lockdowns.

In less than 2 weeks
"cinemas, theatres, etc will reopen. You will have BBQ with your friends (note: regional important tradition!), sports will resume."

They´ll have daily free tests for their population.
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/saarland/lande…
#Saarland´s head of state:

"We´re one of the best in testing and #vaccinating. Maybe that´s why we´re not as bad off as the rest of #Germany"...

Rest of Germany:
🙄🤨😠...
😡Hey Saarland. You received 80.000 doses of Biontech vaccine from our emergency supply.

Be kind and at least don´t boast about yourselves having BBQ parties due to that !
Those 80.000 Biontech doses were meant to be used in companies with commuting workers from #Moselle (to stop the #B1351 risk)!

Saarland - don´t tell those workers you want them to poke their noses with PCR tests every 2 days, while you´re partying...
🤬
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/saarland/lande…
🤔
Seems people from Moselle have not yet found out about the "trick" at the base of Saarland´s "grand reopening" plan...

(The article is very neutral)

Ah - maybe they´re busy with other problems, like:
their region is running out of health personnel...
"Due to the degrading situation, #Moselle now calls students to help with treating #COVID19 patients in medical centers"
"The tension in hospitals will become very strong in the coming weeks"

(Vive la solidarité, #Saarland 🙄)
actu.fr/societe/corona…
And now,
there´s the rumour that #Germany will classify entire #France as "High Incidence Risk Area".

(it would apply to countries with an incidence of 200 for more than 7 days - which France had for ~4 weeks, now...
and a high risk of spreading.)
Statement from #France´s Health Minister on the national #COVID19 situation:

"We are seeing an increased risk of needing intensive care in the age groups from 15 to 75".

(´Quinze´...
That´s fifteen. Not Fifty.
Really.)

"This is due to emerging variants"
Regional President of #France´s region Grand-Est:

"I´ll leave this here:
03/11: 27 classes closed
03/18: 355 classes closed

So we could say this is beginning to be a thing."
#COVID19
The "no-COVID" group is leaving its remarks on Germany´s current state.
(that´s the part I´ll read over and over again, today)

And there´s also a suggested "toolbox" with 9 elements to manage the pandemic well.

nocovid-europe.eu/assets/doc/202… Image
Today,
#Ireland´s mandatory hotel quarantine will come into force.

It´s far from perfect.
With private security,
shortened #quarantine after test on 10th day,
etc (all the things that went wrong in AUS & NZ...

But then again: it won´t matter much...🤷
rte.ie/news/2021/0326…
See,
while Victoria & New zealand were fighting to get back to ZERO cases,
#Ireland has just resigned:

"We can´t see any way of going down below 500 cases per day"

So, one more outbreak, caused by leaky hotel quarantine would not have much impact, here🤷
#Ireland is trying its best.

"We have to continue to try.
It is a difficult thing to keep a disease like this at any number without it rising.

The challenge is not alone to get it down but to keep it to 500-600 cases a day."
#Germany:
A state minister´s ´Full-COVID´ solution:

"~Currently, nobody listens to us anymore.
So, we can´t stop the pandemic.

~Maybe later, when people suffer more,
they will be ready to cooperate again~".

🙄
deutschlandfunk.de/michael-kretsc… Image
Foreign Minister of France:

"The reality is: #Germany´s cases explode faster than they expected...
That´s why commuting workers from #France will need a #COVID19 test when entering Germany, next week..."

(🙄 er... well, both isn´t really unexpected)
5 weeks ago, it was already predictable that case numbers in #France would not be brought down.
So all neighboring districts in #Germany prepared a special ruleset.

It will keep cross-border traffic going, while guaranteeing tests
(that´s the theory)...
Substantial changes:

#Germany declares
"all of #France is now regarded as ´High Incidence Risk Area´"

+The status of "Variant Concern Area" was lifted from:
Tyrol (#B1351 seems under control, there)
Slovakia/Czechia (#B117 has already spread in Germany)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
A serious sounding alarm🚨
concerning younger patients,
from #Norway:

"This should be called #COVID20.

Ages 30, 40 are now admitted,
with no underlying disease.

We´re dealing with a completely different virus than the one before.

Take care...🙏"
nrk.no/nyheter/slar-a… Image
The "completely different virus" in Drammen, #Norway had started to infect kids and teenagers, a couple of weeks ago

in schools, during gatherings - youth stuff, you know...

(it won´t touch the seniors, as they were already vaccinated)
drammenkommune.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
...the teenagers brought the virus home.
It´s #B117.

Once in the home, it will infect everyone, rapidly.

Drammen sees record numbers of infections, these days.
The 30, 40 year olds in hospitals - that´s the parents.

This is, what #B117 does
drammen.kommune.no/om-kommunen/ak… Image
One more thing #B117 will do.

It will trick you into thinking "everything is going to be alright, soon."

Look at #France´s Alpes-Maritimes departement.
Don´t they have huge success in bringing cases down?
From 1000 to 600 daily cases!
Even with #B117!🧐
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
The "success story" may not be sustainable...

While Alpes-Maritimes was able to bring daily cases down from 1.000 to 600, and they nearly eliminated the "old" #COVID19,

#B117 is still pretty much unimpressed by all they can do.
The decrease may end soon.
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
"School classes will be immediately closed, if one case of infection occurs"

(note: applies only to those departements of #France who are already under restrictions due to high incidences.
Everywhere else it would take more infections to close classes🤷)
Depending on perspective,

this is "just a minor mishap" and the most important things in life (the construction schedule) will not be affected...
According to some news reports,
5~10% of the workforce has been detected #COVID19 ´positive´ within recent days.

🤔this "doesn´t affect construction"?
Ah, yes - it´s an innovative company. They´ve surely found a solution...
tagesspiegel.de/berlin/weitere…
The "tested society" in Tübingen (#Germany) allows tested citizens to enter cinemas, cafés, etc. again.

The project is attracting so many people from everywhere, that the city now placed a limit on "day entry passes" (test certificates) for visitors...
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/31… Image
The success of rapid tests as "day entry passes" in Tübingen has now inspired entire regions to demand the same.

Yesterday, 13 cities expressed their intention to do the same...
("regardless of current #COVID19 incidences")
🙄
wertheim.de/startseite/akt… Image
Interestingly,
some cities who demand reopening "regardless of current incidences" are from districts with extreme incidences.🙄

(Example: Schwäbisch Hall)

Although... I´d be fine with having everyone tested regularly and give them a reward🍨🛍️ for it.
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
The idea to reopen huge parts of society,
secured by daily testing is realy attractive.

But you´ll need tests.
Loads of them.

And, as this merchant says,
even with the current demand
"rapid tests will become scarce around April"
🙁🛒
ardmediathek.de/video/swr-aktu… Image
#Brazil:
"In conclusion,
dramatic increases in Case Fatality Rate CFR for #SARSCoV2 infections has been noted
among young and middle-aged adults
in February 2021, after diffusion of #P1 variant across Brazil."
Image
"A 14-day #Lockdown would get us out of this mess..."?🤔

For Germersheim (#Germany) lockdown/school/curfew measures started Feb26.
It brought numbers down.

🧐When measures were eased (~March12) it surged again.

No normality, as long as #B117 is around.
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
Germersheim will now introduce the same measures like 1 month ago, again.

(I agree "just using incidence as an indicator" isn´t wise.
#Germersheim is a good example how non-sensical the "incidence 100" threshold is.

It´s not what they mean, though🤷)
With #France being declared as "High Incidence Risk Area", commuting workers are frantically trying to get their mandatory tests to ´be allowed to cross the border to #Germany´.

Test centers in Alsace are overrun:
"Sorry, we´re booked out for this week"
For many commuting workers from #France it would be legally okay to cross the border to #Germany and THEN take a test...

Ah🙄
okay - This test center in Karlsruhe (#Germany, relatively close to the border) has the next test slots available in...
12 days🥴
corona-schnelltest-zentren.dm.de/webform/C9SIvx… Image
Since March 25,
#Flixbus is really offering tours in #Germany, again.

If you´d like to know details:

"Yes, all our buses circulate air through (some) filters.
And drivers are advised to open both doors during stops, so fresh air can enter"

(🤨??!?)
flixbus.de/service/sicher… Image
Remember those B117 infected travellers who took a 4 hour bus tour in Norway?

They infected several co-travellers on the bus
(even with masks AND obligatory distancing).

That outbreak was traced down to 22 infected, in the "end".
(Good tracking capacity)
kristiansand.kommune.no/tema/korona/ko… Image
An unknowingly infected #bus driver was transporting passengers in #Norway.
All week long.

He always did the Kongsvinger-Hamar tour (~3 hours?).
There´s no registration. But they know 5.615 passengers paid for that ride.

They all are urged to test, now..
mittkongsvinger.no/korona/koronas…
The 5.615 #bus passengers who rode with the infected driver in #Norway are "not regarded as close contacts".

They will not need to quarantine, but are asked to get tested,
if they feel any symptoms...

🙄
elverum.kommune.no/om-oss/aktuelt…
#COVID19
It´s burning through France.

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence departement´s example shows the surge of #B117, while all other variants decline.
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… ImageImageImage
It was ~4 weeks ago,
that #Germany´s heads of states rejected the idea to stay cautious and only open things up, as long as an incidence of 35 would not be surpassed...
tagesspiegel.de/politik/schlap…
Since ~4 weeks ago,
#Germany´s states developped individual interpretations of numbers...

Germany´s incidence doubled:
~69 became ~140

still, there´s digress from applying an "emergency break"...
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… ImageImageImage
Now, several of #Germany´s heads of states and ministers are in isolation. They had received a "possible infection" alert via their smartphone-app.

They had all participated in a plenary meeting in Berlin, last friday,
(mostly with masks and distancing).
tagesschau.de/inland/tschent…
Germany´s #COVID19 warning-app simply calculates infection risk by ~distance/duration of contact.

Here´s where the delegates were seated during the debate. Members of one group (´Sachsen-Anhalt´) had not all received a warning...
🤔canteen is closed, too.
bundesrat.de/DE/bundesrat/b… Image
Fun fact:
from tomorrow on, the City of #Berlin will demand that everyone who´s participating in indoor meetings (>5 people) has a ´negative´ #COVID19 test.

unless it´s about church, jurisdiction, indoor rallies...
or government and parliament
🤷🤦‍♀️🤷‍♂️🤦🤷‍♀️
berlin.de/rbmskzl/aktuel… Image
Major exploit of Tübingen´s test & entry system:

One shop owner didn´t test his clients. Instead he used 350 test-certificates as a generous giveaway (for untested friends)...

They´re not sure what to do with him.
😡They already named his shop´s location
tagblatt.de/Nachrichten/Fr…
A major setback for #AstraZeneca´s vaccine (and Germany´s vaccination plans):

#Germany´s pharmacological authority found several more cases of blood clots, 9 of them fatal.

As a reaction, several german states have suspended use of this vaccine, again.
tagesschau.de/inland/astraze…
"Unfortunately, we´re not very surprised",
says Norway.

They had already warned about AstraZeneca´s side effects, 2 weeks ago.
They hadn´t resumed using that vaccine (´we have enough other stuff´, they had said).
nrk.no/norge/der-spie…
Yesterday, Germany´s vaccination advisory committee advised that #AstraZeneca´s vaccine should only be used with persons over 60 years.

German states will immediately apply this measure, starting today.
(Some allow voluntary vaccination for younger ones)
rki.de/DE/Content/Kom… Image
#Ireland eases restrictions for fully vaccinated persons.
(Currently, it´s some healthcare personnel and some of the Old...)
#Ireland sees vaccines as the path ´back to freedom´.
Promises were made, yesterday.

That sounded nice.🥳
But after comprehending what the speach said, it was a shock for some...

(reopening would start before basic frontline workers are vaccinated).😧
Image
#Irelands essential workers (like teachers, police,...) had believed they would be given priority for vaccinations, so they would be protected when the reopenening begins.

That seems no longer to be the case.
rte.ie/news/2021/0331…
There´s an outcry in France.
"How dare they?!
Where´s the police?!"
I can see, why there´s no police interfering in the party along the river Saône, in Lyon.

France has a trauma.
(Steve, Nantes)

It will be up to the city´s society to deal with the parties in a way they can all live with.
After #Japan´s "State of Emergency" was lifted, the situation in Osaka was gradually getting worse.
Now the situation became obviously bad.

And the measures are helpless:
"-shorter opening hours for restaurants
-wear masks at restaurants"

#B117
#無力
😟
Image
#Osaka watches in awe,

-how their case numbers tripled in one week,
-how somehow, this time it´s mostly the young, who are affected (10-30 years)
-how restaurant owners argue, that installing plastic screens would ruin the experience for their guests
😧
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
This new wave is made up of variants like #B117.

And it will meet the system, that can never be changed.

The same (non N95) masks,
the same shortened business hours,
that somehow worked last year.

And #Japan´s ranking, pictured below,
where distance has to be earned. Image
Every week, there´s another outbreak on a bus in Norway.
This time it´s the ~1 hour ride Odda-Kinsarvik.
One infected passenger used the bus every day, last week...

The community is now awaiting test results for all other passengers.
bt.no/nyheter/direkt…
Despite regular outbreaks on busses (and bus drivers getting infected or being the source),
Norway´s health directorate has just decided:

Wearing masks shall not be enforced upon bus drivers.
(It would be too dangerous, as their glasses might fog up)🥸🚍
ytf.no/nyheter/bussja…
The unthinkable will happen:
#France will close schools and kindergartens!
School holidays will be synchronized, too.

And the strict rules that were introduced in the 19 hardest hit regions will soon be applied to entire France.

#Lockdown.
For 4 weeks.
Many said it would happen:
#Tübingen´s "test for entry" concept may be forced to stop.

It is being "overrun by non-locals" (who want to enjoy some hours of ´near normal´ life)
And despite daily testing, the city´s incidence is nearing 100, now.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Germany´s RKI just dropped the #Quarantine bomb:

their new guidelines define
that being just 10 MINUTES in an aerosol-laden room with an infected person
would send you to quarantine,
even if you were distancing AND EVEN IF YOU BOTH WORE #FFP2 MASKS !!!😷
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Someone opened that critical window, by opening up before vaccines were fully rolled out.
And now, this warning about #B117 in #Ireland:

"In the beginning we thought it was just transmission, but now..."

rte.ie/news/coronavir… Image
That "critical window" for #Ireland would become dangerous, if people would stop to cooperate and enjoy their "success of being invulnerable, soon"...

while, in fact - with just 15% immune at the moment - they are far from having achieved herd immunity.
"When they get it in #France and they get it bad, two or three weeks later it comes to us.”

🤔So #B117 would be running in circles...?
According to #France,
the peak (of infections) will be in 7-10 days.
The peak in hospital ICUs will be end of April.

"And then we will enjoy more freedom in May"...

"Our #Lockdown will have a strong impact - There´s no reason to think otherwise".
From Baden-Württemberg:
Nursing homes and healthcare were driving numbers up during the earlier waves...

That´s over (due to vaccination).

But what´s remaining (workplaces, households, kindergartens (when open)...) is enough to cause another huge wave
🤨gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/DE/Fachinf… Image
From #Berlin´s Subway:

"The subway security guards who issue violation tickets to passengers for not wearing FFP2 masks...

are exempt from wearing any mask during their work"
🙄
A recent study in #Berlin´s subway found:
"there´s very low risk to get infected on the trains. It is well ventilated, people wear masks and they only spend a few minutes on board..."

Well, unless you´re a security guard and spend your workday, there.🤷
bvg.de/de/Aktuell/New… Image
🙄Seems @BVG_Ubahn also uses persuasive tactics to achieve "97 to 99 percent mask discipline"...

😷😷😷😷😷😏😷😷😷😷😷
😷😷😷😷🔪😮😷😷😷😷😷
😷😷😷😷😷😷😷😷😷😷😷 Image
#Ireland has the bold plan to return to full in-school teaching on April 12.

Vaccination for employees with ´high risk´ will only start May 3 (maybe)...

So they "should take extra care".
(it´s your fault if you get infected, then...)
🤬
asti.ie/document-libra… Image
#Berlin:
~"Dear secondary #school teachers,
as y´all know, there´s not enough vaccines for you at the moment.

We would like to thank you cordially for continuing your work for our children´s sake, anyway"
🤷
Image
Trøndelag in #Norway is very proud, today:
they´re the ONLY ´green´ region in all of Europe,
with a 14-day incidence below 25
and positivity rate below 4% !

(they still stay cautious.
They had the same situation in December - and then cases surged...)
nrk.no/trondelag/enes… Image
#Japan's course is set.

There's one priority:
keep infections from surging until enough vaccines for the elderly have arrived.
This might mean: until June.

That's the plan.
And it will stay the plan.
It will not be changed.
#Japan is still sticking to it's 2020 measures:
-restrict restaurant opening hours a bit
-only 4 guests at a dining table
-avoid karaoke

They can already see:
the pattern in infections has changed. #B117 is changing everything.

The measures stay the same
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
#France, Paris region:
"We had 1.500 beds in ICU.
All of them are full with #COVID19 patients, now.

And current predictions say in two weeks there'll be 2.200 patients.
Where shall we place them?"
Statistics for Paris region are in:
In the last week, before schools finally closed,
~10.000 kids at school were found to be #COVID19 'positive'.

That number was ~33% more, than a week earlier.
But "schools in #France will reopen in 3~4 weeks" is already promised

(while an epidemiologist points out that'd be when infections might just have peaked...)
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
In fact, a recent prediction said:
"On April 22, 3 weeks from now, the number of #COVID19 patients needing intensive care in Paris region may be ~3.500."

(all of their 1.500 ICU beds are already full, today)
lci.fr/sante/covid-19…
#Denmark has registered their first 2 cases of "enhanced" #B117 (the additional #E484K mutation is sometimes nicknamed "Eeek", because it has the potential to make the virus less susceptible to antibodies/vaccines)
#Austria had confirmed major presence of #B117+#E484K a week ago.

(major presence: >100 cases in Tyrol)...
One week ago,
Tyrol (#Austria) announced 216 active cases of #B117+#E484K mutation.

As a result, leaving this area is only permitted with ´negative´ #COVID19 test.
Yes, #Austria´s army is back to control exits from Tyrol.
(They had been deployed earlier, when #B1351 was spreading in Tyrol)

~"It worked before - we´re going to stop this new variant, too"
meinbezirk.at/kitzbuehel/c-l…
A theatre director in #Austria is "devastated".
After practices 12 of 15 choir members are infected with #COVID19.

~"We did tests every 48 hours. I thought we´d test, test, test and we´d be safe..."
🙄
"but some with negative tests were in fact positive"
noen.at/baden/corona-a…
Yesterday, #Denmark´s SSI confirmed:
of 117.670 tests done in February-March
about ~50% of tests with rapid (#antigen) tests gave "false" results:

45% false positive
AND
47% false negative

(should keep that in mind when relying on those tests...)
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
An interview with the doctor behind #Tübingen´s trial to open up for tested citizens...

She sounds quite reasonable, proposing adjustments and even willing to cancel the trial, if needed.

But there´s no real evaluation concept - it´s a wasted chance...
fuldaerzeitung.de/panorama/coron…
The inherent problem with the "tested opening" trial:

without transparent data
and no clear shut down criteria

the discussion needs to be held right now
(while the city´s incidence is on the rise)
if it´d be better to close again...

Many don´t think so.
ardmediathek.de/video/swr-aktu…
Because one city´s experience may not be enough, #Germany´s state of Lower Saxony has announced another "trial".
Next week, 14 cities will open up for tested citizens.

They start with an incidence of (some barely) below 100...
ms.niedersachsen.de/startseite/akt… Image
There´s quite some chance for making contacts in Lower Saxony´s "trial" areas.
This "project" shall run for 3 weeks - if nothing goes horribly wrong...
🙄
Surveillance? Cities will "report their experiences"
and there´s a new tracing app (👈
will be busy)
niedersachsen.de/Coronavirus/vo… Image
Lower Saxony´s opening "trial" has some interesting shut down criteria:

It must end, if incidence goes above 200 (for 3 days)
UNLESS this surge is "caused" by the increased testings...

(like: "it was there anyway and y´all didn´t notice it - so it can´t be that bad...") 🤨 Image
RULES
After holding a farewell dinner for a section chief at a restaurant, 2 of 9 city staff members from Osaka (#Japan) have tested ´positive´.
"We´re really sorry - we should have respected the suggested limit of having only 4 guests at such parties"
🤷
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Here are predictions for Osaka´s #COVID19 development.

It´s four days old.
Since then, actual numbers have matched the worst case line...
(Yesterday had an alltime record of 666 new cases)
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… Image
Somehow, there´s still a peculiar perception where & how people get infected in Osaka...
Osaka´s prefect gave practical tips on how to do "masked dinners".

When dining with others, it´s okay to remove your masks when eating,
put them back on, when talking
#Japan´s Medical Association is critical on Osaka´s focus on restaurants.

In fact, with #B117 being the dominant variant in the area, infections are virtually spreading everywhere.
"~an infected person in a family will infect most other family members"
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
"Live with the risk, manage the risk"

In the first 2 waves, South #Korea managed to bring infections down without major (business) Lockdown.
The 3rd wave (December) was more difficult. But still, with some not too harsh measures, numbers went down...
Image
Churches are a thing in South #Korea.
(They played a ´particular´ role in the first wave).
They are open now.

Some people also get infected there
and then are spreading it to another church...
(it´s Easter time, so a lot of masses)
Currently, South #Korea also has a large cluster of "35 karaoke bars and 6 job placement agencies"
(🤔now, that´s an interesting mix...)

But infections are also still happening in nursing homes, healthcare, schools, workplaces,...
Those outbreaks aren´t a new thing - they are the tolerated price to maintain #Korea´s society open, with only basic restrictions...

But this week, something changed:
the #Balance doesn´t work like before.

Case numbers have slowly started to go up.
Image
South #Korea had seen first (imported) cases of #B117 as early as December.
Meanwhile the overall count for variant cases is said to be 289 (249 #B117).

I couldn´t find official variant updates,
but on monday, a week ago, 38 new #B117 cases were found.🤨
koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20…
Unfortunately, vaccines are not expected to come to South #Korea´s rescue in the short term.

Currently, only ~2-3% of the population has been vaccinated.
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Monday´s reported #COVID19 numbers are usually the lowest in every week, in South #Korea.

Now,
if this week´s "low day" numbers are nearly as high as last week´s "peak day",
there might be something going on...🤔
Image
An interesting way to "control the spread" of the virus:

Karaoke bars stay open. It´s totally okay to work or visit there (with masks, no eating).
And it´s okay to get infected / infect others, there...

BUT YOU NEED A TEST, so the outbreak can be managed
Image
This is South #Korea´s sharpened guidance in Busan, as a reaction to their karaoke outbreaks:
-No eating, but drinking
-1 meter distance
-OR partition between tables
...
This is soooo not ready for #B117...😟
english.busan.go.kr/bsnews01/14827… Image
It seems, #Canada is now waking up to #Variant nightmares.

"That is why you see so many, physicians in particular.... panicked"

cbc.ca/player/play/18…
Somehow, it seems #Canada has suddenly become aware that "something´s going on"...

and that there´s urgent need for action
Measures are differing, not only from province to province - even between neighboring cities.

But all over #Canada, authorities try to start getting serious with their efforts against #COVID19 (variants)...
This is, what #Ontario´s idea of the shutdown was, only 3 days ago:
schools were left open & no Stay at Home Order.

In the last few hours, they came to the conclusion that they´d better change that...
toronto.ctvnews.ca/what-does-a-co… Image
It seems, local authorities are not waiting for provincial government to adapt the measures but take matters into their own hands...

"Schools ordered to close, despite government´s firm belief they should stay open"
toronto.ctvnews.ca/peel-schools-o…
While Toronto doesn´t want to close all schools, so far, they are about to close a whole lot of them - because they all have #COVID19 outbreaks...
A "wake-up call",

I think, that´s what they achieved...
#Ontario
#COVID19
Meanwhile,
to the west of Ontario, #Alberta was trying to keep an outbreak of #P1 under control...
They discovered it ~3 days ago.
Alberta´s #P1 outbreak is indeed ´significant´:
"The outbreak started with a traveller returning to Alberta from out of province. To date, the spread has been confined to three work sites in Central and North Zone, where employees travelled between sites."
Note:
"returning from out of Alberta province", being infected with #P1
doesn´t require a trip to Brazil.

It´s more likely someone had been to the neighboring province British Columbia...
bc.ctvnews.ca/more-cases-of-…
And British Columbia (BC) for sure has a P1 problem...
Surprise...
Sendai City (#Japan) wondered why case numbers were soaring recently - so they re-analyzed 208 samples from February/March.

They found: 80% were carrying the #E484K mutation.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
EMA head of vaccines expressed *very* carefully:

"It is now increasingly difficult to say that there is no cause-effect relationship between #AstraZeneca vaccinations and very rare cases of unusual blood clots..."
🙄
ansa.it/canale_salutee…
What is EMA about to do?

EMA: "it will take a very meticulous job to understand if the beneficial risk ratio is in favor of the #AstraZeneca vaccine for all ages".

🤔I think you may find the violes in your local supermarket, soon. Same shelf as unsold chocolate Easter bunnies.
"Alternative Facts" about testing at workplaces in #Germany:
(both may be true)

1.) "Only 23% of all employees are given opportunity to have one weekly #COVID19 test"

(trade union-affiliated institute)
boeckler.de/de/pressemitte… Image
Alternative view:

2.) "Over 90% of all companies offer #COVID19 tests"
or are planning to do so.

(Federation of German Industries asked CEOs)
issuu.com/bdi-berlin/doc… Image
Seriously🇩🇪 folks - you´re clowning around with the idea of ONE single (SELF)test per week...

It might be worth to cancel the whole show (so nobody accidentially thinks his result would mean anything)

But🤔 if "90% are doing it" anyway - it could as well be made mandatory, no?
🧐Fun fact from #BDI´s own presentation:

while ~90% of (interviewed) companies "~do something about tests"😏

only ~50% are actually capable to offer ONE weekly test (the rest is offering them every 10-14 days or not at all, (yet))🙄

#embarrassing
Image
Tübingen adapts their "opening for tests" strategy, due to rising case numbers.

One novelty:
companies in the city will be obliged to test their employees 1-2 times/week.

(And the city will sell those tests - so there´s no excuse of ´no available tests´)
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/32… Image
Nope, that´s not an "advice"
No "voluntary" measure, and
any "self-commitment" won´t help...

#Tübingen is actually imposing MANDATORY tests for employees.
They HAVE TO present results twice a week(!),
Employer HAS TO control and guarantee fulfillment(!!)
tuebingen.de/amtliche_bekan… Image
No more delays.
#Toronto is closing all schools !

Toronto´s Mayor had asked for one additional day to give parents time to prepare,
but the city's medical officer of health, said

"the shutdown is
needed IMMEDIATELY"
One week ago,
a gym in Quebec, #Canada was forced to close.

An inspection had found some 'non-compliances' to #COVID19 rules.

(At that time, already 68 cases were linked to that gym)...
journaldequebec.com/2021/03/31/la-…
One week after the gym in Quebec was shut, the number of infected staff and clients has now increased to:
193.
The latest count, after a week: Quebec's gym outbreak has spread further.

The 193 directly linked cases have already caused
164 secondary infections at ~30 other workplaces (like restaurants, offices, shops, construction,...)
🌊🌊🏄🌊
After more and more cases related to the gym had been noted,
health authorities had ordered it to close...

for 24 hours for complete disinfection🤦
and then authorized it to reopen

(Just in case you wondered how one gym could infect 193 people + more...)
archyde.com/almost-360-pri… Image
Just interesting to see:
several states in #Germany have / had allowed gyms to reopen (differing rules everywhere).

Gym providers were "fighting hard" to keep their business open...

Meanwhile, many fights have been lost to sharpened rules.
mcfit.com/de/willkommen-… Image
I still do believe,
´something´ is going on in South #Korea...

(it´s more obvious now)
Image
What´s not so obvious
(and why South Korea´s surge is especially worrysome)

- the peak happens despite reduced testing (!)
- it´s mostly SYMPTOMATIC cases who get tested at the moment (!)
- They just start thinking of free tests for those without symptoms
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202104…
#Osaka lights up in red alert lights, tonight.
The city´s mascot is in tears.

The #COVID19 situation has become worse, faster than expected.

It´s mostly the young ones, 20~30 years, this time.
Hospitals are filling up rapidly.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
#Osaka´s worst-case scenario (left, black line) from a week ago was pretty accurate in predicting today´s record case numbers (878 new cases, ~orange X).

Let´s hope their prediction for next week (right, 1.426 cases per day) is wrong😟
Last week´s report:
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… ImageImage
One development wasn´t foreseen.
It took #Osaka by surprise:

The number of "seriously ill" patients.

It went up much higher, much faster (red line) than worst-case predictions (dotted line).

This week´s report:
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… Image
#Osaka Prefecture declared a Medical State of Emergency, today.

-"infections are spreading at an unprecedented pace."
-"more patients are becoming seriously ill in shorter periods of time."

-"the local healthcare system is now overstretched."
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
#Norway discussed their reopening course, today.

"realistically opening might start in late May, the earliest. But in a very bad case it wouldn´t start in 2021 at all"...

Then, authorities brought in another proposal:
ZERO-COVID.
nrk.no/norge/vurderte…
While introducing the ZERO-COVID concept in a press conference, today,
#Norway´s Health Director also stated:

"Shifting to a ´zero´ strategy isn´t realistic, right now.
It may be, later.

And certainly we should keep it in mind for the next pandemic"
adressa.no/nyheter/innenr…
Who rules the world?

#B117

at least in most of #Norway,
according of FHI´s week-report
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
Who´s winning in #Canada?

They say they´re one of the few countries with significant outbreaks of 3 #variants at once.

"What happens to all three of them in the mix?
Which one takes over?
Which one is the fittest of the three?"

Sure: Canada will lose.
cbc.ca/news/health/co…
🧬💨vs 💉🐌
"#Canada's slow vaccine roll out has failed to keep up with the exponential rise in variants in the third wave

and the premature loosening of restrictions has led to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths,

even in younger Canadians."
😟
Vaccinations in #Berlin.

No exponential growth.
(Of course not, but: they´re at it for ~3 months,
now 13% vaccinated🤨)
Image
Yes,
over 70 year old citizens of #Berlin get free taxi rides to the vaccinations.
service.berlin.de/dienstleistung… Image
Oh, these dinners are sooo common in #Japan, this time of year.

Ministry of Health held one, too (with some infected afterwards).
Ehime prefecture outed they had 9 of them, in hotspots.
🤷
Health Minister and Ehime´s governour have returned their salary.
All over #France,
even in the confined departements
and in the overseas territories in the Indian Ocean or the Caribbean

#COVID19 seems to have stopped.
😏
Their secret weapon:
Easter holidays.

Labs are closed.🙄
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Many countries saw the Easter-effect.

In #Germany, the national reproduction factor dipped down to R(4days)~0,60.
🤨
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Some seized the (Easter influenced numbers) opportunity and declared:

"I don´t see any exponential growth.
in my state, numbers are falling.
The situation in our hospitals is relaxed...

~Let´s stop these short-lived activistic lockdown ideas"
zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
Non-relaxed response from a hospital in this state:

"Our ICU is full. 2/3rds are COVID patients, average age is<55.
Each day, more very severe cases are brought in...

WE don´t know how we´ll cope with that, without effective action against the pandemic."
From #Germany´s ICU Ass. press conference, today:

"In 10 days, our regular #COVID19 capacity will be full"

"~30% of our COVID patients now are 35-59 years old. They´re way more ill, they fight way much longer than earlier. This is due to #B117"
#Germany´s ICU Ass.:
"The weird thing is: we predicted all this."

And the low case numbers...
they think they´re currently not reflecting the true situation (due to Easter backlog):
instead of ~110 "we think it might be above 150. More like 160~170".
berliner-zeitung.de/gesundheit-oek… Image
And then this shock:

#Germany´s heads of states just cancelled their planned meeting on monday.

They say they´d already know they will not agree on any additional measures...
rnd.de/politik/corona…
And so, the "let´s have reopening trials" frenzy in #Germany goes on...

"When in the beginning their incidence is below 100, these 9 cities and 4 districts will be allowed to start their reopening trials..."

🤔mmmnn what happens if the incidence goes up?
If the 7 day incidence goes over 100 for 7(!) days in a row,
the trial has to be stopped (UNLESS the city can argue that the reopening has not substantially contributed to the rising case numbers...)
🙄
Now everyone is jumping on the bandwagon:

the mayor of #Karlsruhe just announced he wants to lift the incidence limit for shopping.

"shops are not the drivers of the pandemic"

Shopping with an incidence of 150 or 200 might still be okay...
ka-news.de/region/karlsru…
It seems like everybody has been waiting for #Germany´s seemingly anarchic moment.

One chamber of commerce throws their (old) hat into the ring:
"Shops and hotels must open immediately, they´re no drivers of the pandemic!"
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
They (IHK Ulm) had already posted their demand 3 weeks ago.
They claimed #RKI had classified hotels and shops as "low risk".
And besides focussing on incidence one should also look at
- pressure on hospitals 🤨
- vaccination rates 🙄
ulm.ihk24.de/servicemarken/… Image
Here´s the #RKI handout that IHK Ulm refers to.

Yes, hotels are deemed "low risk" - but they are also classified as having "limited impact" if they´d be closed...

(but that´s not the main point here...)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#RKI´s concept was very detailed in saying:
🧐
"If incidence rises ABOVE 50 (!!), closing hotels and non-essential shops should be considered"

(Especially with:
diffuse, large outbreaks✅
high transmission in private settings✅
high pressure on hospitals)✅

🙄 Image
#Germany´s ICU Ass. explained:

"4 weeks ago, we were working at a very low point,
with 2.700 #COVID19 patients.
Today we´re at 4.474

Whatever we´ll try now - there´ll be more than 5.000 ICU patients by the end of this month.
Much higher, if we don´t act"
2 days ago,
the Caribbean islands of #StVincent & Grenadines had received their first 24.000 doses of COVAX vaccine.
...
paho.org/en/news/7-4-20…
Then this happened:

they discovered
the local #volcano was about to erupt violently.
Within hours or days.

An urgent evacuation order for #StVincent was issued.
The options to flee from #StVincent:
cruise ships
🛳️🌋
Everyone was urged to get vaccinated before getting on board a ship
or going into a shelter
or entering neighboring islands

"We don´t want a #COVID19 outbreak"
loopslu.com/content/vincen…
10% of #StVincent´s population had been vaccinated so far.

The volcano erupted ~2 hours ago.
No time for more vaccinations.
(#StVincent, #Volcano reuption)
Cruise ships had just arrived to #StVincent,
but people were already fleeing with whatever available...

#StVincent evacuation:

"This is not a drill.
And this is not voluntary.
There´s a pandemic taking place
and we´ll be vaccinating persons once they enter a government operated shelter."
#StVincent evacuation:

"Very much so I want to ease the discomfort of having to leave your home,
of going to a shelter.

We know it´s a... you have to do it!

I regret I well up in tears...

Any questions?
We´ll continue to work !"
While we, together with @EU_Commission are fighting over vaccines,
discuss who´s going to be locked out from our countries, out of fear of infections

"People of neighboring nations have responded, they put people in their homes, strangers,..."
#StVincent
#StVincent, after sunrise,
this morning
#StVincent´s neighboring island Saint Lucia will take several hundred evacuees.
No vaccination required, but a #COVID19 test, of course.

The evacuees will be housed with volunteering local families. Expected time of needed evacuation stay:
~3 months.
stluciatimes.com/saint-lucia-pr…
#Germany, Saarland

How it started:
they allowed substantial reopenings,
starting April 06,
incidence 77.8 (low, due to Easter backlog)

Then
April 07: 85.2
April 08: 97.4
April 09: 103.7

How it´s going - Today´s incidence:
April 10: 125.0
🤷
Image
A first state in #Germany (Rhineland-Palatinate) introduces eased rules for fully vaccinated people.

From monday, they will not need to provide a ´negative´ test result at most occasions.

(Masks, distancing, closed institutions, etc. will still apply)
msagd.rlp.de/de/service/pre… Image
~5% of Rhineland-Palatinate´s population are fully vaccinated, so far.

Some will never get the jab in time.
"We have a massive increase in young, severly sick patients"
"We´ve never had 5 patients on ECMO at once - but now, we do..."
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
One person died on April 6, in a town in #Norway.
The town later urgently asked "participants of recent meetings" at the man´s home to get tested.

They think he died of #COVID19.

He is said to have been a well-known COVID-denier.
😟
gran.kommune.no/nye-smittetilf… Image
#France still has the Easter hiccups (concerning their #COVID19 test results).

Especially in the areas close to the borders (no workdays - no obligatory testing for working commute with border crossings...)
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
Another indicator shows:
#France (here: Grand-Est region) has more than just hiccups.
Hospital saturation is above 100% (on average...)

(this data is 2 days old, because: weekend)
grand-est.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
Average hospital saturation above 100%...

that means: France´s Grand-Est departement #Vosges has 388% of their beds occupied.

Many others are also over 100%.
Only 3 (Bas-Rhin, Haut-Rhin, Marne) are at 64-70%, for now.
actu.fr/societe/corona…
Who fills up the hospitals (here: entire #France)?

To many it will be a surprise, when they are admitted to ICU. They may have thought, they are still "not the vulnerable ones".

They had been spared in the waves before,
the ages of 20 years upwards...
covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-f… Image
The story behind #Brazil´s "hand of god"

It started as attempt to get one patient´s hand warm enough, so that a pulse oximeter could read his oxygenation.
It worked.

Later, another patient wouldn´t let go the doctor´s hand,...
the idea worked again.
🤝
g1.globo.com/rj/rio-de-jane…
So
after having incidences above 100 for 3 days in a row,
#Germany´s Saarland now "decided" to switch their #COVID19 status to yellow.

(while the ´green´ light was always proudly displayed on their entry page, this update is hidden in the news section...)
saarland.de/msgff/DE/aktue… Image
#Saarland´s "Yellow COVID status" announcement is... 🤔weird?

In Yellow status, "more testing will be done"
(why only now?)

"The more we test, the more infections we´ll find".
(Ahu? So that´ll be the reason, why case numbers won´t come down soon?)
🙄
saarland.de/msgff/DE/aktue… Image
Germany´s #RKI, critical about the idea to reopen while incidences surge beyond 100
(2 days ago):

~"This does NOT imply, the risk of getting infected is lower.
It means: those who are in charge do hand over their responsibilities to the ordinary folks"~
#Saarland´s concept is flawed:

Under ´Yellow´ status, nothing will close, it´s just more tests.
This will stay in force "until overload of the medical system is imminent"😵

And they´re not even sure how ´overload of medical system´ should be defined🤷
sr.de/sr/home/nachri… Image
Another "great reopening" plan:
the #Netherlands just started a roll-out of "test for entry" events.

Only those who can present a ´negative´ test are allowed to participate in selected concerts, events, etc.
Costs: 150 million € / month for testing.
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
Additionally, the Netherlands held Fieldlab events
with scientific support.

The goal was to evaluate
Behaviour
Trace & Track solutions
Rapid tests
Air quaility
Dynamic (singing, yelling, dancing etc)
Personal protection
Surface hygiene
Vulnerable persons
fieldlabevenementen.nl/bouwstenen/ Image
Today,
first results from Netherlands´ #Fieldlab events were reported:

"Results were encouraging".
~It would be acceptable to omit the 1.5m distance.
Most contacts would only be "shorter than 15 minutes" anyway...

(🤔wait... no #COVID19?...)
nos.nl/artikel/237628…
Well,
At 2 #Fieldlab festivals, all 3.000 guests had been PCR tested in advance. 26 were found ´positive´ and therefore didn´t participate.

But: AFTER the festivals 16 additional cases were detected.
Some had likely been infected during the festivals.
🤷
destentor.nl/show/mogelijk-…
Q:"16 infections after your #Fieldlab festivals, do you think that´s okay?"
A:"~Well, you should see - we´re in a high phase of infections in our country anyway..."

(In the 48 hours between test and festival, at least 2 participants became infectious.🙄)
Another participant of the meeting at a well-known COVID-denier´s home in #Norway has now died from #COVID19.

Her family tried to help, but couldn´t do anything.
💔
gran.kommune.no/nytt-covid-doe… Image
Several contacts of people who were present at the COVID-denier´s home in #Norway have now been confirmed to be infected with #COVID19.

They live in several communities across Østlandet region...
(that´s fairly widespread)
gran.kommune.no/nytt-covid-doe… Image
Scientists from #Germany´s Association of Aerosol Science urged politics to "concentrate on the real issue: #COVID19 infections would happen indoors.

Rare outdoor infections would never cause a #cluster"...

🌬️🍃
docs.dpaq.de/17532-offener_… Image
Easter friday (10 days ago), police in North #Germany were called to a field. Dozens of youth had been seen there, holding a clandestine party.

When police arrived, most of them ran away.
Party over...
case closed?
no 🌬️🍃
rnd.de/panorama/dutze…
Soon after,
several #COVID19 cases popped up.
Thankfully they mentioned where they might have been infected..: the party in the fields.

The district issued a quarantine order for all (yet unknown) participants
and urged them to come forward for testing.
landkreis-rostock.de/bekanntmachung… Image
It then became clear:
the party in the fields had been a #Superspreading event.
🌬️🧬
"So far, we have 5 infected partygoers...
and already 1 secondary infection
(had not been to the party, but was close contact to one partygoer)"
landkreis-rostock.de/landkreis/aktu… Image
The number of infected close contacts after the field-party has now risen to 4.

Additionally, mandatory #COVID19 testing started in school-classes of typical partygoers´ age.
No test returned ´positive´ today...

But there were some students who preferred to be "absent" today
🙄 Image
Over 1.000 ?!

#Osaka
#COVID19

😯
April 9, one teacher at an elementary school in #Osaka was tested #COVID19 ´positive´ after feeling ill.
April 10, three more teachers felt ill: ´positive´.
April 13: 16 of 60 teachers ´positive´.
#School is closed.

"None of the 875 students feels ill"
🙄
sooo....
the teachers at that one school in #Osaka got infected

"because their desks at the staff room only had a screen in front (and were missing #screens to the sides)"

🙄ah, screens... okay. I see the problem.
#Aerosols 🌬️🧬
mainichi.jp/articles/20210… Image
I remember #Osaka is promoting acrylic screens to protect from #COVID19.

Just last week, they offered a subsidy (100.000 ¥) to restaurants who retrofitted their rooms with screens.
(Screens have gotten really expensive, due to high demand, there)

🤷
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Heyyy ! Going on holidays again!

A travel agency from the #Netherlands is doing a trial.
~200 travelers will pay for one week on Rhodes (Greece).

They may not leave the resort and there´ll be surveillance of strict distancing.
But there´ll be a bar.
🏝️🥂
Only 189 places were available for the holiday trial on Rhodes.
25.000 people applied, back in March.

Typical #COVID19 risk groups were not accepted.
hln.be/reizen/uiteind…
Having secured a place on Netherlands´ holiday trial doesn´t mean you´ll actually go.

There are 2 tests before departing (PCR 3 days in advance, rapid test upon departure).

One holidaygoer needed to unpack again - ´positive´.
😕✋ 🛫🏝️🥂🥳
metronieuws.nl/lifestyle/reiz…
Dutch authorities promise a "COVID-free bubble" during the current holiday-trial on Rhodes.

(given incubation periods of >5 days for #B117 and a pre-test interval of 3 days, that´s pretty bold...

🤔is there a "we´ll take you back anyway" guarantee...?)
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
No "return back guarantee"...

#France is suddenly announcing to cancel all flights from #Brazil.

(there had been alerts by experts over several days, that France´s entry policy was neglecting the risks of #P1 variant, so far)
That was some heated discussion in #France´s parliament.

"The situation is dramatic..."
and then, the Prime Minister shouting "we see the situation is getting worse! And thus we have decided to stop the flights between #Brazil and France"
🤔Where in #France is the situation already getting worse, due to the #P1 variant from #Brazil????

Here, obviously:
French #Guiana.

French overseas territory, bordering Brazil.
(flights from there seem to be unaffected by the flight-stop...)
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
(Already 3 months ago)
#France had reacted to the emergence of another worrying variant besides the UK variant - this time from Brazil...
Yes, back in January there had been wild speculations about #Portugal beeing a major entry point for #P1 to Europe...
Seeing this detail in the map,
presented by french TV,
I was kind of worried...

#Portugal?! Has a share of 20.7% of brazilian variants ?????
Image
Checking Portugal´s data base:

as of March, #Portugal has only had 22 cases of brazilian variant #P1, they say.
That´d make up 0.4%.
(mostly imported cases, little community spreading in Portugal)

Phew...🥲
(so far)
insaflu.insa.pt/covid19/relato… Image
🤗Ooooooh,
the #Netherlands have a plan.

Okay - it´s a dream.
A dream of reopening everything, in 5 steps.
Starting in 2 weeks.

"if patient numbers start falling and we all stick to the basic rules..."

🙄wait: indoor sports, starting 4 weeks from now???
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
The 2 pillars for reopening the #Netherlands:

vaccinating
&testing for entry

"We expect a lot less #COVID19 patients to be in hospitals in a few weeks."

🤔Those who get infected TODAY will enter hospitals in 2-4 weeks (when reopening step 2 is planned)
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
Ah. Ohhh...

"You have to take risks. Stop staring at the numbers every day. We should not wait until vaccines finally kick in, sometimes in July..."
(chairman of the Dutch Security Council)

That sounds like a different plan for the #Netherlands.
🤨
nos.nl/liveblog/23763…
"You have to take risks..."

Dutch parliament just agreed for the next batch of #Fieldlab events.

You´ll need a ´negative´ test to enter.
Once inside, #COVID19 is gone🥳🥂🎶
(see pic below, from a recent fieldlab dance festival,
4 infected afterwards)
nos.nl/artikel/237663…
The list of planned #Fieldlab events in the #Netherlands:

up to 10.000 guests
indoor & outdoor

"Part of the practical tests is that visitors let go of a number of basic rules that are supposed to prevent #COVID19." (👈official government´s text)
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
Irritating about the Netherlands´ list of #Fieldlabs:
it´s all about fun & commerce, not "essential" stuff.

How about taking some "real" risk and having a trial that could prove that bashing rallies was wrong all the time (or not)?!
Pre-registrations for the 10.000 visitors open-air festival (April 24) in the #Netherlands have now started.

The only entry test will be:
One rapid (antigen) test, done shortly before arriving there...

Of course, 🇳🇱 will have everything under control🙄
538.nl/oranjedag/538-… Image
By the way:
#RIVM (#Netherlands´ disease center) recently announced that they had stopped keeping track of who was actually vaccinated
(key element in the reopening plan!)

They´d lost overview, even of the risk groups, because "it was too complicated".
🤷
nos.nl/artikel/237608…
As weird and wild as the Netherlands´ #Fieldlabs are,
at least they bring up some results.

In the last 2 events, ~80% of visitors voluntarily did another test AFTER the event.
So we know 16 of 3.000 got infected ´in relation´ to these festivals.
nrc.nl/nieuws/2021/04…
7 islands of #Germany have also announced a "reopening lab trial"

They have 2 entry tests as a "firewall" (~48-72 hours apart).
But no exit test for visitors - so there´s not much to learn from, it´s just for business.
ostfriesische-inseln.de/Moin-Konzept Image
If you happen to test "definitely positive" (PCR-confirmed) during a second test on the island,
they´ll simply kick you out.

How you get home?
None of their business.
(they´re only accessible by plane or boat, who´ll be happy to have an infected passenger)ostfriesische-inseln.de/cntx_medien/fi…
Oslo (#Norway) is confident:
"Olso is on track to strike down the third wave"

and they have one priority:
"from monday on, all students will be able to return to their #schools."

(everything else will stay restricted, for now)
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad… Image
"Stronger protection than before..."
in Oslo means:

Wearing facemasks will be allowed outside of lessons (not in lessons).
Those emplyees who want it, can use facemasks (unclear, if this means during lessons...)
🤨
Image
Hey #Switzerland, how's your pandemic going?

~"We don't quite know what's going on here, but looking at neighboring countries who are doing much more, we think we're screwing it up"

(admittedly very rough translation)
#Switzerland🇨🇭officially:

Situation has worsened constantly.
Most indicators for reopenings are not met.
It´s yet unknown, if Easter has caused many family infections

Nevertheless,
government has decided it´s time to open up.

(that´s not the crazy part)
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
🇨🇭
This is the crazy part:

"In case of an outbreak, a company can avoid sending involved work-teams into #quarantine,
by offering ONE TEST PER WEEK to their employees..."

(spokesman of #Switzerland´s government, on incoming new #COVID19 rules)
Maybe even crazier:

~"Your government knows the risk of opening up.

So we call on you, citizens:
take care of yourself.

Especially you in the risk groups - you know it would only take several more weeks and you´d be fully vaccinated and safe."
🇨🇭
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
#Switzerland´s new COVID19 rules, also:

Indoor choir singing will not require wearing masks.
⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
#Switzerland has also issued a FAQ for their new #COVID19 rules (in case you thought this can´t be true...):

Yes,
choir practices up to 15 persons indoors.
No masks for singers,
a 25 m2 area per singer (or "efficient barriers") will suffice.
⚫️
newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/… Image
In some cases, it helps to read the ordinance text:
🇨🇭
Even if employees refuse to take a weekly test at work,
they won´t need to quarantine in case they´d be #COVID19 contacts.

Even those who take tests, would still need to quarantine, while not at work.
newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/… Image
#Germany´s Saarland may be forced into full #Lockdown again, due to

"doubling of #Variant cases within one day"
🤨???

(4 weeks ago they had
#B117: 59%,
#B1351: 10.8%,
#P1: (1 unconfirmed case)
tagesspiegel.de/wissen/coronav… Image
Ooops ! A tiny -but important- new Detail in #Tübingen´s local pandemic plan:

"If an employee REFUSES to take a COVID19 test (twice a week),
the employer shall REPORT him to the city´s authorities."

(In the rest of #Germany, tests are usually voluntary)
tuebingen.de/Dateien/2021-0… Image
A Covid-deniers´ meeting in #Norway had turned into a #superspreading event, ~3 weeks ago.
So far, 2 people died (including the organizer).

Meanwhile, communities all over the region find secondary, tertiary... infections in people who had not been there.
ostre-toten.kommune.no/covid-19/aktue… Image
After a disastrous wave of #COVID19 had receeded,
#Portugal cautiously started some reopenings, 4 weeks ago.

Yesterday they checked what happened.
It´s not too bad,
so from monday on, they´ll open up more...
covid19estamoson.gov.pt/lockdown-easin… Image
#Portugal knows,
they need to stay alert.

Overall incidence has decreased nicely (~120 to ~70),
but there are frequent upticks (R currently above ~1) and several hotspot areas.

They´re wise enough to not only use one indicator...
sns.gov.pt/wp-content/upl… ImageImageImage
There are regions who´s incidence increased since the last evaluation.

So #deconfinement will not be the same for everyone in #Portugal.
Some will stay in their current phase,
some will even go back to more restrictions.
sns.gov.pt/noticias/2021/… ImageImage
One example how difficult it is to let go of deconfinement...

#Germany´s Saarland is still at "yellow" restriction level.
Their incidence has risen above 120 (where Portugal was, one month ago), R is ~1.5.

No decision was taken, yet...
sr.de/sr/home/nachri…
Is the next wave in the making...?

It seems to have set a first foot in #England,
where our current dominant #B117 was reigning mostly uncontested, so far.
Its name: #B1617
🤷
It looks like labs in #India had just stopped sequencing #B117 and switched to "the latest trend" #B1617 instead...

but:
"the findings are consistent with what has been observed at the ground."
(Indian official)
hindustantimes.com/india-news/dou… Image
Of course,
#B117 is still around, even in India.

It has just been submerged by the flood of #B1617 cases.
Just today,

Germany has announced that it will no longer regard #UK
as being a #COVID19 risk area.

In practice this means:
no quarantine,
no tests,
when entering #Germany from UK
(only possible with qualifying reasons)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
And despite of raging #B1617 variant,
#Germany thinks nothing has changed in #India since summer 2020.

It´s still considered a simple "risk area".
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Just a little bit longer:

#Germany´s Saarland government reportedly wants to keep "yellow" restriction level
(with outdoor restaurants & shops, theatres, cinemas,... open with tests),

while hospitals say "we´re already under pressure, stop it"...
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/saarland/lande…
Meanwhile in #Denmark:

"Overall, we are a little bit surprised at how well things are going,"

(3 week old models,
actual development matches the "very best case" scenario,
despite having opened more than this model was caculating...)
~700 new cases / day
ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/… Image
#SSI: "#Denmark is one of the least infected countries in Europe, now"

What´s the difference?

"We have a good understanding of this pandemic and accept instructions from authorities.
And we´re a nation with a high social trust - we do things for others."
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Inspired by their apparent success,
#Denmark´s government has just decided to open up a lot more, in 5 days:

indoor dining,
indoor sports
art & music schools (NO singing!)
stadiums
...
(all still regulated, but open)
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0… Image
#Denmark´s SSI advised the opening decisions,
at one point even intervened (dreams went beyond SSI´s calculations)

"we (as a society) are willing to accept an increase in infection. And there´s room for that"
but an emergency stop option would be needed.
nyheder.tv2.dk/2021-04-16-her… Image
Seems the #Netherlands are going to great lengths to be part of the first large trial concert, next weekend:

1 million applications for 10.000 tickets😲

Now the last (personalized) tickets are auctioned off for donations (sold between 10.000~15.000 €)
It also seems, not everyone is happy about holding a 10.000 visitor trial event - especially in the heart of the city of #Breda🇳🇱,
especially while all restaurants & bars in the city have to stay closed, due to Lockdown measures.

Council will meet monday.
The hospital in Breda is also worried about the huge trial event:
"There could be medical emergencies (due to ´substances´ or accidents) - we don´t have any spare beds.

One epidemiologist is also noting:
"infections."
(seems nobody wants to hear this now)
bndestem.nl/breda/grote-zo…
South #Korea,

How it started:
1 worker at a refrigeration company infected coworkers/family,
some of them went to a karaoke bar...

How it´s going:
~4 weeks later,
with world-class tracing.
#Cluster has 476 cases,
still growing
Image
Tell the boss, my holidays will last a little longer...

8 (of 188) participants of #Netherlands´ first trial tour to Rhodos are quarantined in #Greece.
4 have tested "not clearly negative",
the 4 others are their roommates...
nos.nl/artikel/237706…
A #petition has popped up,
to stop next weekend´s 10.000 visitor ´trial´ open air #festival in Breda (#Netherlands)

Reportedly it was initiated by doctors and nurses:
"To organize this festival just 400m from our overloaded hospital is a slap in our face"
petities.nl/petitions/met-…
After news also reported,

that doctor´s #petition against the trial #festival in the #Netherlands is exploding.
>30.000 signed
(~was ~25.000, 15 minutes ago)
and going...
Image
The #Netherlands´ "trial #festival" seems to have struck many nerves,

The #petition website against it
is overrun at the moment.
(until midnight it registered ~70.000 signatures,
this sunday morning, ~8 am, it is between 90~100.000,
still going...
petities.nl/petitions/met-… Image
The #Netherlands´ #COVID19 situation

"~is not the result of errors in judgement.
It´s the result of deliberate decisions.

The choice between keeping infections as low as possible
or allowing as many infections as our ICUs can possibly support".
In a presentation to the government,
(back in October, when the 2nd wave plateaued)
#RIVM stated that "sharper measures wouldn´t change the peak, but would empty hospitals faster"

and so the #Netherlands decided to do nothing in addition, but wait it out.
tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/… Image
#Netherlands´ October decision to "do nothing" was taken although at the same meeting NL´s ICU coordinator showed admissions were already beyond worst-case-scenario...

(a few days later it became obvious "doing something" was needed, so NL finally did)
tweedekamer.nl/kamerstukken/d… Image
It always depends on who´s whispering in your ear...

this time, in #Switzerland,
"other voices were heard"

The National #COVID19 Science Taskforce wasn´t even informed, before government took the decision to reopen, tomorrow...
amidst rising case numbers
srf.ch/news/schweiz/t…
The #petition against the #Netherlands´ "trial #festival" in Breda has now registered >170.000 signatures.
(>100.000 today alone)...
petities.nl/petitions/met-… Image
Seeing the large wave of objection in the #Netherlands (via online #petition), the city of Breda is now asking the dutch #government if they really want to be serious about pushing the "trial #festival" with 10.000 visitors any further...
nos.nl/artikel/237718…
The radio station hosting the planned "trial #festival" says:

"We´re sorry about the upheaval,
but this festival is part of experiments and as long as #Fieldlab and the #Netherlands´ government support it, we´re honored to carry it out"

#ItsNotOurFault😇
nos.nl/artikel/237718… Image
#Fieldlab (the ones who evaluate the #Netherlands´ "trial events") say:

"It´s either on the radio station, the city of Breda or government to decide if the festival will be stopped"...

#ItsNotOrFault😇
#Fingerpointing
nu.nl/media/6128384/… Image
The #Netherlands´ Police Union also raises issues against the planned "trial #festival" in Breda.

"~Police officers are already under pressure and still not vaccinated.
And hospitals might not be able to provide sufficient help, if something goes wrong."
Meanwhile in the #UK:

a very similar set of "trial #events" is about to take place.
Today, an outdoor concert in Liverpool was announced.
5.000 visitors, no masks, no distancing, but antigen tests before and after.

(7-day incidence
UK~28
Netherlands~280)
gov.uk/government/new…
In the #Netherlands,

the government is allegedly saying "it should be the city of #Breda who decides if the "trial #festival" will happen or not.
There´s only one condition: public order must be maintained...

#ItsNotOurFault😇
#Fingerpointing
nos.nl/teletekst#105 Image
At this moment,
the #petition to stop #Netherlands´ "trial #festival" in Breda registers

~300.000 signatures
...
still going.
petities.nl/petitions/met-… Image
Mayor of #Breda (where the #Netherlands´ "trial #festival" should take place):

"~there are other test events in other cities too - and here it should not happen,
just because some people sign a petition ???
That´d hard to explain to the organizers..."
🙄
omroepbrabant.nl/nieuws/3375622… Image
One actual scientist about the #Netherlands´ #Fieldlab events:

"~They don´t even say what they are evaluating.
If they´d really want to research ´behaviour´ it would take far fewer people.
This is not for science -
there seem to be... other interests"
🤨
bnr.nl/nieuws/gezondh… Image
Another dutch trial:
Finally, after several tests,
the 4 test-#holidaymakers from the #Netherlands who were "not clearly negative" have now tested sufficiently ´negative´ to get out of #quarantine (just in time before their test trip to #Greece ends)...
🏝️
nrc.nl/nieuws/2021/04…
The #petition against the planned 10.000 visitor "trial #festival" in Breda (#Netherlands) reached 370.000 signatures.
The city´s mayor now doesn´t give permission...

because of "increasing social unrest".
breda.nl/geen-vergunnin… Image
"Police is getting info that the trial festival might bring confrontations between pro- and con´s"

🤔if there was just one piece of truth in this,
this "trial" would have formidably shown that such events currently split societies.
breda.nl/geen-vergunnin… Image
What the city of #Breda notes at the very bottom of their "trial #festival opponent blaming":

GHOR also gave a "negative advice".

(GHOR is the regional disaster coordinators´ association)
They give expertise to festivals.
And say when a plan is a crock.
ghorbrabantmwn.nl/diensten/advis…
Meet some of the ´bad guys who were causing social unrest´, so that the trial festival in Breda had to be halted:

It´s the police

Police union called all their members to lay down work if they´d be deployed to the festival,
without having been vaccinated
#Japan
Osaka had just hoped,
their good old measures of "self-restraint" and "shortened opening times" would do the trick again.

A week ago, it became clear: hospitals can´t cope.
More beds installed.

Then they waited.
Those measures just had to work...
covid19-osaka.info/en/ Image
Today,
~2 weeks after promoting acrylic screens for restaurants and dinners with max. 4 people,
#Osaka realized:
it´s no use.

They will request a State of #Emergency,
to close restaurants,
department stores
and establish some online learning for schools.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
This prediction is from one week ago.

#Osaka had 227 ICU beds back then.
They managed to push them to 254, today.

Even the best case scenario (black dashed line) says:
some will not find a place.
😟
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… Image
Alpes-Maritimes,
once the worst hit departement in #France,
now sees rapid decline of case numbers (and positivity rate as well).

Even the dominant #B117 is slowing down...
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
Meanwhile,
Alpes-Maritimes is one of the few departements in #France that has come below the official "maximum #COVID19 alert level" (incidence 250)...
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes… Image
Alpes-Maritimes is also the first departement in continental #France to have above 25% vaccinated (first dose).

That seems to be pretty effective.
covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/ Image
#Switzerland´s #COVID19 Science Task Force wasn´t asked, when government decided the latest round of openings (despite rising cases).

They now subtly respond:
"if you had sped up vaccinating instead of opening,
Switzerland would save 1.9 billion CHF"💵
Image
#Switzerland´s #COVID19 Task Force also warned of another effect:

current early openings would conflict with delayed vaccine deliveries -
and this could possibly lead to a strong next wave...
in June.
srf.ch/news/schweiz/e…
#Switzerland´s #COVID19 Task Force explicitly said: this is not a forecast.
This shows *potential* effects of delayed vaccine rollout with current openings...

100.000 doses per day: a new wave in June, as high as the winter wave

50.000: higher.
ImageImage
Zurich (#Switzerland) also performs wastewater testing for #SARSCoV2 tracers.

Swiss COVID19 Task Force now warns:
wastewater results recently don´t match the number of registered cases anymore...
It looks like there´s some serious underreporting of cases!
parsivel-eawag.ch/sarscov2/ARA_W… Image
In fact,
#Switzerland´s testing has gone down drastically, in the last ~3 weeks.
Easter holidays saw record testing (for family visits, presumably).

Now the test number is just ~30% of what it was then.
(Many without symptoms might remain undetected)
covid19.admin.ch/de/epidemiolog… Image
As of yesterday, #Switzerland´s reproduction number is R~1.1

Swiss National #COVID19 Science Task Force worries, because:
cases rise (´slowly...´), testing is not very popular and vaccinations are kind of stuck.
covid19.admin.ch/de/repro/val Image
As of yesterday, #Denmark´s reproduction number is R~1.1

Denmark´s Health Minister says "that´s a sign of our success and gives us a good starting point for reopening..."
The reopening will be broadened today.
In #Denmark,
testing seems to become hugely popular.

From today, a negative test (72 h old) will let you have a beer INSIDE a bar (and other long missed stuff...)
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
BTW:
in #Denmark it´s fine to show a 3 day old ANTIGEN test and have free access to all the nice things of life...

(not that this would make much sense -
it´s not perfect, it´s just what they all agree on.)
coronasmitte.dk/raad-og-regler… Image
#Denmark´s vaccination campaign?

It´s not out of this world speedy:
18.8% have their first dose.
8.9% are ´fully vaccinated´

A week ago, they even said they´d stop using their stock of #AstraZeneca.
It goes well enough - no need for this stuff...
experience.arcgis.com/experience/1c7… Image
What does #Denmark do with ~200.000 unused doses of #AstraZeneca vaccine?

They´re "lending" it to #Germany (55.000 doses).

And they made sure it will only be used in Germany´s border state right next to Denmark.

(A protective ring - very nifty!😏)
ndr.de/nachrichten/sc…
Meanwhile, in #Germany...
("live stream" of parliament, discussing new #COVID19 rules)

No, you can´t see it via the official site. It just won´t work
🤷
bundestag.de Image
Of course,
there´s a way to get the live stream of the discussion in #Germany´s parliament.

If you really want to...
(I´d prefer to wait until the new law is published and omit the show).
So, in #Germany
"at the moment the legislative voting procedures are not held in the chamber but are transferred to the hallway, to provide sufficient space to make distancing possible..."

(*possible*. That´s the keyword, here.
They´re rulemakers, they know the details) Image
#Denmark: "we´re good at fighting COVID, because we´re fighting together".

Germany, 1 month ago (incidence 110.3):
unverhältnismässig
Germany today (incidence 160.1):
unverhältnismässig

One day, the pandemic will be over.
But #Germany will still dispute.
merkur.de/politik/corona…
Meanwhile,
#Switzerland makes straight forward plans for the future.
(Some of the affected people might call them "unverhältnismässig" or unfair...)

The core concept:
The more vaccinations - the less protection
Image
First of all,
#Switzerland admits, that monday´s openings (together with rising cases/unclear situation) would not permit additional easings until end of May...

They´d be happy, as long as 14-day incidence stays below 450.
(today´s incidence: ~330)
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
In June, #Switzerland plans to have vaccinated all willing elderly. Then it´s "vaccine for all willing adults".

As "adherence to rules will deteriorate",
they think cases will surge.
An incidence of 600 would be fine.
(remember: all ´vulnerable´ elderly had their chance) Image
Then, around July/August,
when #Switzerland will have vaccinated all willing adults,

the children will remain.

Switzerland´s solution:
~"Bad luck kids.
We know there´ll be outbreaks among you.
We will call this: the Normal Phase"
newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/… Image
#Norway had also stopped using #AstraZeneca´s vaccine.
They will now give 16.000 doses to #Iceland,
where it is a welcome boost to the vaccination strategy for over 60 year-olds.
stjornarradid.is/efst-a-baugi/f…
In #Japan,
Osaka seems to follow the ´worst-case´ curve.

What´s missing in today´s graph? The yellow line, indicating how many ICU beds are available...🤔

But there are other indicators to understand what´s going on...
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… Image
In Osaka,
it can now take up to 4 hours until an ambulance may drop off a patient at a clinic.

Some who are thought to be well enough are not picked up at all - even though they collapsed with high fever at home
(having been infected by a family member)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
#Osaka:
It can now take up to 7 hours waiting in an ambulance, until a COVID19 patient finds a place in a hospital.

To prevent the collapse of the region´s ambulance system, patients will now be "dropped-off" in a simple room, with O2 and pulse oxymeters
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Kobe City, ~Osaka region, #Japan

"We are shocked. Our hospitals try to coordinate their efforts, but it seems they cannot cope with the rapid increase in patients"

2 #COVID19-patients, 81 & 40 years old
had died at home,
while waiting for a hospital bed
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
#Tokyo goes exponential, due to #Variants.

"2 weeks from now, daily #COVID19 cases are expected to reach 2.000"
(today: 861)

"and hospitalized patients will reach 6.000"
(much more than the winter wave, which peaked at 3.427 hospitalized patients)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Today, there was a "technical briefing" in the #Netherlands.
Several predictions were presented,
showing what would happen
if openings would be started...

every slide said: "WAIT UNTIL NUMBERS FALL"
tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/… Image
Dutch PM: ~"There may be not much change in our #COVID19 situation -
but I can see enough change to start openings in the #Netherlands next week"

"In contrast to the advisory team, we trust in the forecasts,
we don´t wait until they come true..."
nos.nl/liveblog/23777… Image
And once again,
the #Netherlands hear this argument:

"any additional measures would change nothing in the height of the coming peak -
they would just make the wave recede faster..."

(🤔I think there´s good reason to bring cases down as fast as possible)
ad.nl/politiek/kabin… Image
Things can change quickly

A group of 43 medical students from #India arrived in Paris, April 12.
A negative PCR before leaving India,
a negative antigen test in Paris,
then quarantine in #Belgium

20 of them are now ´positive´.
Despite vaccination.
#B1617
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2021…
#Japan will stick to procedures,
even when the (virus) world is changing fast...

It took days(? weeks? it felt like ages!) of bureaucracy,
but now, the State of Emergency has been declared.

It will cover the holiday period.
So it'll have real impact.
Meanwhile in #Germany,
the mayor of Pirmasens had tried (once more, in vain) to convince authorities, that the high COVID19 incidence in his city was due to "atypical circumstances".

Therefore neither curfew nor school closures would be needed...
pirmasens.de/rathaus/presse… Image
Admittably,
it's very hard to grasp, why a mayor pleeds against curfew & school closures, when his city is featured with "the worst
incidence in the age group of 5-14 years" (630.1)...

This is alarming, indeed.
But the mayor of #Pirmasens made one point:
"Those infections are in 2 large families. They are confined."

👉That's the real (maybe not his) point.

'Quarantine at home' means 'stay home and infect your entire family'.

Of course, curfew won't help here.
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
#Tokyo´s governour asks to turn off every light in the city, except street lights.
💡📴⚫️
"I remember dark nights in Tokyo, during the oil shock and the 3/11 Earthquake, to save energy...
But this time it is meant to suppress the flow of people."
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
🌷🤔
I do remember what many cities in #Japan needed to do one year ago, in a desperate attempt to keep people from gathering...😣🥀✂️
#ChoppingDownFlowersAgainstCOVID
#Germany´s RKI thanks everyone for restricting their movements during Easter.
(3 weeks ago)

"It´s likely this has induced the current plateau in case numbers.
We see, that you´d all do this, if you just had the chance"
(i.e.:closed schools & businesses)😯
Yes,
#Germany´s mobility was substantially reduced during Easter period (for example in Berlin).

But it recurred to ususal levels, a week later.
(And yes: #RKI thinks cases may therefore also start surging again, soon)
tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-… Image
#RKI also thanks the young for many sacrifices,
for saving many elderly and easing pressure on healthcare.

"The young ones now need OUR solidarity,
to also have a chance to finally get a vaccination before the virus gets them..."
(i.e.: not the swiss way)
Meanwhile,
#Austria seems to see no reason to wait for any ´weak´ ones.

There´s sheer joy:
"We will start to go open on May 19 !"
(schools 2 days earlier)
orf.at/stories/321033… Image
Meanwhile, #Austria´s Tyrol brews up another wave.
This time a ´homegrown´ (#B117+#E484K) variant.
Already 50% of new infections,

~"They knew it was coming - but they didn´t bother a lockdown"
~"Now it´s all over the place, forget about local measures".
tt.com/artikel/307899… Image
Another way to not bother about a #lockdown:
#Australia, Perth is doing it routinely.

Masks up,
Queueing up at shopping centers,
Then stay home,
In ~3 days life will return to normal.

Hopefully.
Also:
queueing up at rapidly installed test centers.
1 hour after the list of "places of concern" has been posted.

#Perth has learnt the whole #COVID19 lockdown routine by heart, it seems.
#Perth is good at lockdowns.
But they still have issues with #Quarantine hotels starting outbreaks.

This man was infected "in his room", during quarantine.
Tested negative.
Visited friends (for 5 days).
Flew to Victoria - where he was tested ´positive´.
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal… Image
Actually, the man in #Perth was not "the source" of the current outbreak.
(He brought it into community, yes.)
He in turn was infected by...
ouuuhh - someone "who had returned from #India"
🙄
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal… Image
Meanwhile (a different corner of the world):
#Canada´s Ontario detected 36 cases of the #B1617 variant from India.

All "in the last few days".
All travel related (so far).
cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
#Canada:
"You're now in exponential growth. If you continue with keeping things open, you will be challenged very swiftly.

"It's a very inconvenient truth. What has worked before will not be enough"

(Do people crave for rosy fairytales, these days?)
cbc.ca/news/canada/ma…
#COVID19 situation,

Rosy fairytale vs. inconvenient truth.
(from #Belgium´s chief epidemiologist´s point of view):

"It is a choice between a rosy fairytale or an uncomfortable and undoubtedly unpopular reality.
But as always: the politicians decide..."
Most countries have far too many cases, to report individual stories.

#Australia´s Perth outbreak gives a rare chance to follow how the virus spreads,
from person to person

(and: now to another person as well,
it was transmitted in a restaurant)...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
A peek inside the #Perth restaurant, where the infection transmission between index case and another diner is thought to have happened.

The old "#COVID19 via recirculating air condition" story, it seems.
Image
After just one day, #Germany is scaling up it´s #COVID19 defense on #India again.

India is now regarded as
"Area of Variant Concern",
due to the massive spread of #B1617, there.

(it doesn´t need to be classified as "Variant of Concern" for this measure)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#India:

"30 times more than the last wave..."

Even with some error margin,
this is too high to cope with,
I guess.
A Biostatistician,
asked about #Switzerland´s first #B1617 case:

"If we look at #UK (where they have #B1617 for a while now), the variant´s share has not increased, there.
This means we may not expect an ´immediate explosion´ in Switzerland as well"...
🤔2 days ago,
the Variant-Update by UK´s #IndependentSAGE showed #B1617 was the fastest rising new Variant in UK.
Note: *Cases are mostly travel related - no community spread, so far*
(Drop at the end is due to overall low sequencing this week)
Image
Elections incoming in #Germany,
rosy promises arise:

~"I want a clear schedule for summer, so that everyone shall know on which day restaurants, concerts, theatres,... will reopen"

🇩🇪18.773 new #COVID19 cases today
incidence: 166
Meanwhile in #Perth (West Australia),
the Premier won´t give guarantees - not even for the next day.

0 new cases today.
(~20.000 tested this day, in Perth alone)
Still in #Lockdown because of 2 recent #COVID19 transmissions in the community.
Oh,
there are currently elections in parts of #India, as well.

(I think the other parties made a similar promise, so I guess it´s fair...) Image
#Alberta (Canada) currently has a #Variant share of ~60%,
but the real worrying number is:

3-5 days waiting until you get tested
🕰️🥱
Image
Opening up, with #variants around
(example: #Alberta)

Step1: modest restrictions
Step2: stricter restrictions
Step3: easing of strict restrictions
Step4: easing of modest restrictions

(New wave)
return to Step1

Mar9, "Step2 easing", 4571 #COVID19 cases
cbc.ca/news/canada/ca… Image
Alberta, March 9:
4571 #COVID19 cases, but
"only a small number of 47 variant cases" (#B117)

("Step2 easings")

Alberta, ~one month later:
~1.000 new B117 cases per day, and
"only a small number of ~40 #P1 variant cases"
alberta.ca/stats/covid-19… Image
Due to surging #COVID19 cases in #France,
all school kids were sent into extraordinary 3 week holidays, early April.

Today is their first day back at #school.
Same procedures as before.
Except: 400.000 tests available

(note: for ~6.7 million pupils)
So, what did France´s 3 week holidays for school kids achieve?

Positivity rates in the age groups 0-19 years started to rise as soon as holidays began...

(seems kids on holidays weren´t eager to get tested, except for when they were sick.
Understandably)
Image
#Norway just issued a study,
comparing #school measures:

🔸Closing schools (home schooling)

would have the same effect as

🔸"Red Level" school (reduce classes to half size, assign ONE teacher to this group, keep all groups separated at all times)
helsedirektoratet.no/veiledere/smit… Image
🤷The advisory committee to the #Netherlands had warned, 1 week ago:
"wait with reopenings, until the trend shows steady decline of hospital admissions - we´re not sure about our forecast"

Governent didn´t want to wait.

Turns out the warning was right...
lcps.nu/813-covid-pati… Image
#Netherlands:
"Last week, suddenly admissions went up substantially.

This was exactly 2 weeks after Easter.
It might well be the spike was caused by Easter activities due to nice weather..."

"the rise might now continue far into May"
nos.nl/artikel/237834…
In 2 days,
outdoor terraces are allowed to open, in the #Netherlands.

Several bars & restaurants already announced they will not open, for several (economic or moral) reasons.

"It just doesn´t feel right"
This owner´s sister is a nurse at a #COVID IC...
nos.nl/video/2378365-… Image
#Austria´s "model" region Vorarlberg had very low case numbers ~a month ago,
so they decided to open restaurants.
Now incidence is surging fast.
"No - that´s not because of the openings.
It´s because of the belated arrival of #B117 in the region..."
vorarlberg.orf.at/stories/310101… Image
A perplexed interviewer asks if the crowded restaurants he saw in #Voralberg were acceptable...
"~Yes, we´re a model region after all!
People get infected at home, at school and at work (not at restaurants).
Well, maybe they don´t take it serious enough"
Vorarlberg will now introduce "mandatory mask & test" zones in popular areas. (You´ll need to show a ´negative´ test to go there)

Will you close restaurants?
"No, this wouldn´t be wise to have no-one going there!
Then we´d have fewer people to test..."
🤔
tvthek.orf.at/profile/Vorarl…
In a typical disaster movie from #Japan,
there´d be a scientist shouting

"Too Late!
The 4th wave cannot be stopped!
But if we pout all our energy into vaccinating Tokyo´s population, we may avoid a catastrophic 5th wave!"

It´s no movie.
Real predictions:
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
Of course, there´s always a dramatic twist...

The super-villain #B117 + #E484K turns up.
(April 1: 10 cases in #Japan)
Even with the best possible vaccination effort,
it would prevail and cause a massive, long lasting wave of infections... Image
And then someone comes along and says:

"You all remember what we did in #Japan, in the very first wave?
Closing schools and restaurants and everybody tried to stay at home?
We need to do this for 4 months - then we could keep it under control"
🙄
Image
#Japan´s current plan:

"Education ministry guidelines say that region-wide
school closures should be avoided
from the viewpoint of ensuring healthy learning and for the mental and physical health of children."
japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/2…
This is the scene were you yell at the screen, because you can see what´s going to happen...

Today, #Tokyo found 245 variant cases (#B117 and alike).

And for the first time,
they found clusters at elementary #schools.
😮🙅🛑‼️‼️‼️
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
uh-oh!
A #P1 cluster?
(#Germany, Calw district
dominated by #B117, so far)

"We have found several, possibly connected cases of the brazilian variant #P1"

"We are very concerned and are urgently trying to determine the chain of infections..."
kreis-calw.de/Service-Verwal… Image
Ah, #Switzerland has a plan...

it has to do with (maybe premature) openings,
and specifically large events.

And it´s about a lot of money💰
🤔
#Switzerland wants to motivate regional authorities to permit large events, even when it´s not yet clear if circumstances would allow them to take place...

If authorities would later decide to stop the event, the region would have to pay compensations.
🙄
Actually,
#Switzerland´s "cancellation insurance" is a nice idea to get things going.

(but the authorities who´d need to decide to cancel an event would be regional authorities.
And then the region would need to pay half of the compensations...😄🙃)
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
The Netherlands did trials with soccer matches.
Audience was (antigen) tested before the game: ~1% were ´positive´, access denied.

5 days after the match,
most visitors were tested again: 3 ´positive´.

"they got infected either before or after the match"
fieldlabevenementen.nl/wp-content/upl… Image
The #Fieldlab trials in the #Netherlands now conclude:

events may be possible,
even without 1.5m distancing.

pre-testing / open-air / ´intelligent´ site setup
would be safe enough.
fieldlabevenementen.nl/wp-content/upl… Image
Fieldlab trials also found masks to be necessary:
-all the time, when more than 50% of places were used.
-only while moving around, when just up to 50% of places were occupied
fieldlabevenementen.nl/meer-ruimte-mo…
#Moselle (France)
has managed to push down their extraordinarily high number of ´South Africa´/ ´Brazil´ variant #B1351.

15.9% today,
(was ~40%, earlier this year)
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
#Germany will lift the "Area of Variant Concern" status for #Moselle (France) in 2 days.

(But will declare all of #France as "High Incidence Area" instead)
This will bring small, but very welcome changes for crossborder workers...
Major improvement for commuters: when Moselle will no longer be "Area of Variant Concern", public transport will again be able to pass the border.

(It was never prohibited for persons. But they needed to walk across the border. Busses had to turn around)
sr.de/sr/home/nachri…
You know,
every time things are being promised to become "normal"...

(it´s not just cafés - it´s a plan to reopen everything until June. #Deconfinement in France)
... a tiny little virus variant pops up.

(#France has just confirmed their first #B1617 case.)
😣
The first #B1617 case in France was found in one person who was tested for LEAVING #France.
(He had recently arrived from India).
So there seems to have been no quarantine?🤔

And: there´s also a suspected second case in France now...
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
"The situation in India can happen anywhere,
when protective measures are being relaxed,
when there are more contagious variants,
when vaccination coverage ist still low,
this can create a perfect storm in any country..."

says WHO #Europe director
Update:
There´s actually not one second case of #B1617 in #France,
but at least two.
Both around Marseille (Bouches du Rhone),
both travelled from India,
both were in quarantine.

They have no connection to each other.
Also update on #France´s first #B1617 case (~Bordeaux, Lot-et-Garonne):

The case tested ´positive´ in France, 3 weeks ago,
went into quarantine.

There have been close contacts in France.
Those who are known are quarantined.

One of them is ´positive´🙄
Image
In an interview, an epidemiologist noted that
"several possible clusters of #B1617 are under investigation" in #France:
~Bordeaux (South-West)
~Marseille (South-East)

and also
~Le Havre (North)
bfmtv.com/sante/variant-…
#Germany:
City of Stuttgart confirmed that one case of #B1617 had arrived there, from India.
(Arrived already in *February*,
went straight into quarantine and became ill, was detected ´positive´, then.

Sequencing now showed it had been #B1617.)
Who´s "the vulnerable ones", now?

☂️Out of the line of fire (due to vaccination):
Nursing homes, healthcare

🧬The most common places to become infected, now:
-Private Household
-Workplaces
(-childcare, if open)
#Germany #BadenWürttemberg
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/fileadmin/LGA/… Image
Today is #Portugal´s last day under
"State of Emergency".

From midnight on,
the border to Spain will reopen,
tomorrow, some large events will take place
on monday, shops, restaurants in most towns will reopen more...
Not all towns in #Portugal will be allowed to take the step to "Phase1", yet.
And there will be weekly reviews. If the situation deteriorates, local restrictions will be put back in force...
covid19estamoson.gov.pt/desconfinament…
#Portugals "return to near normal" might be reversed if either:

14-day incidence goes above 120
or
R(t) goes above 1

🤔 That´s ambitious...
lusa.pt/article/OnyeRJ…
🤗kid´s vaccine !

Oh,...wait. I know several mixed opinion parent pairs who will now go to war with each other
about vaccination or no of their kid.
😞
"It is too late to leave."

Australians usually know this from bushfires.
It´s meant to protect people from endangering themselves.

This is different:
"Those who dare to come back from #India will go to jail."
Australians in #India may be fined or jailed for trying to return home to #Australia.

´Constitutional law expert George Williams said the move was
“very likely to be constitutional”.´
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
3 days ago, #Australia´s PM announced to cut all flights from India.
They know there are 9.000 Australians registered in #India,

650 are ´vulnerable´.
"This number will certainly increase in the coming days"

#Abandoned
pm.gov.au/media/press-co… Image
#Austria (obviously not Australia):

"~There was one infected person roaming the city of #Salzburg, 4 days ago.
We have no way to identify close contacts.
Would everyone please come forward?

It´s a #B1617 case."
🙄
service.salzburg.gv.at/lkorrj/detail?… Image
The #B1617 infected lady in #Salzburg arrived from India mid last week.
(no details about quarantine🤷)

Monday: went shopping
Tuesday: went to work (asymptomatic)
->Antigen test at work was ´positive´
=> family in quarantine now,
daughter also ´positive´
salzburg.orf.at/stories/310176… Image
A while ago, #Japan came up with the concept that avoiding one of the "3 C´s"

closed spaces
crowdes places
close contacts

would reduce the risk of transmission.
mhlw.go.jp/content/3CS.pdf Image
After several months, #Japan now checked the "3C rule".

They found out:
2 or even 1 "C" would be enough to cause a #COVID19 Cluster !

Like one outbreak at a student party by the river showed: (close contacts, crowd - but no confined spaces)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…?
#China - if you can make it there, you´re gonna make it everywhere...

#B1617
hindustantimes.com/world-news/ind…
🤔Hong Kong had no routine sequencing for #B1617, so far.

So it took them a while to discover that 10 of their #COVID19 cases were already the ´Indian´ variant...
scmp.com/news/hong-kong…
#UnderTheRadar:

"Among the 10 imported cases with the #B1617 variant discovered in Hong Kong,
seven arrived on Vistara flight 6395 from New Delhi, #India on April 4."

This was the flight:
All of the (153) passengers on the cluster-causing
flight New Dehli - Hong Kong
had presented a ´negative´🤔PCR test prior to departure in #India.

(Meanwhile 58 of them have been found #COVID19 ´positive´)
stuff.co.nz/travel/news/12…
Even in #Vietnam...

5 cases at a (I guess: quarantine-)hotel in Yen Bai are now confirmed to be #B1617.
4 ´specialists´from India
and one hotel staff.
vtv.vn/suc-khoe/5-ben…
The hotel worker in Yen Bai (#Vietnam) was tested as a close contact ("F1") of earlier cases in ´guests´ from India.

There are no F2, F3,... (secondary contacts).
In Vietnam quarantine hotel personnel is staying in quarantine.
😶
ncov.moh.gov.vn/web/guest/-/68… Image
A look inside a quarantine hotel in #Vietnam:
e.vnexpress.net/news/news/a-lo… Image
(Vietnam: quarantine hotel guards are not allowed to leave quarantine)

vs. #Perth, Western #Australia:
Once more, 1 guard infected
also 2 of his 7 housemates
Moved around the community for 4 days
before returning a positive #COVID19 test this morning.
🤦
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-0…
Ironically,
the #Perth quarantine hotel guard thought the typical COVID19 symptoms he was experiencing were side effects of his first anti-COVID #vaccination he had received earlier...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
Just today,
#Perth had eased measures from the previous (also quarantine hotel related) #Lockdown.

They will think about a new one,
tomorrow...🙄
wa.gov.au/organisation/d… Image
More suspected #B1617 cases in #Austria:
this time in Nickelsdorf (a small town at the border to Hungary, completely opposite side from
Salzburg (yesterday´s case).
3 family members.

And...it´s said to be NOT travel-related.
🤔
burgenland.orf.at/stories/310187…
In recent years, #India has become an important supplyer of #seafarers to the world...
⚓️
Many cargo ships do have an entirely indian crew, maybe except the captain.

(you know, what´s next...🙄)
marineinsight.com/shipping-news/… Image
The "suspected #B1617 cluster in Le Havre, #France"
(mentioned yesterday)

is the crew of an oiltanker.

(16 seafarers from #India, isolated since April 18)
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/normandie/sein…
Now,
another #oiltanker is locked down in the port of Antwerpen (#Belgium).

22 of the 23 crew are indian.
8 have already tested #COVID19 ´positive´, yesterday...

(their prior port was also Le Havre, France)
hln.be/binnenland/sch…
Every large ship needs experienced local "Pilots" to guide them the last miles.

There are only a handful of them in the ports. And they board every ship and have direct contact with every crew...

Perfect spreaders
(as long as vaccination is stalled)
splash247.com/crewing-crisis…
No lockdown for #Perth.

A bit daring,
given that hundreds of test results are still pending...
Having 2 infected food delivery drivers may not put #Perth at great risk.
And one of them visiting a cooking class doesn´t *automatically* infect all 20 of them (mistake in the text)

But it´s a risk.
(As well as the index case´s mosque visit on friday)...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal… Image
Saying that there´s no need for worries,
"because people in #Perth wear masks"

and simultaneously stating
"~the guard got infected while wearing his mask properly. Shit just happens🤷‍♂️"

isn´t that somewhat incoherent?
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
Meanwhile in #Germany🇩🇪 (Schwerin):

Mandatory #quarantine
for every person who visited one doctor´s practice
for more than 10 minutes
(even with masks! - they´re mandatory)

One of the staff was infectious. For ~a week.
~200 people concerned.
🙄
schwerin.de/export/sites/d… Image
That´s why I´m not too happy with the latest surprise coup
to allow employers to issue test certificates for their (self-tested) employees.

Those tests are ideally done at home,
before going to work.

Not before the eyes of colleagues (then contacts)🤦
The #Netherlands aren´t happy with testing.
After a month of "testing for access" trial,
(0.2% tested ´positive´)

some venues only sold half the tickets.

Their proposal:
"Tests are discouraging people from visits.
Why can´t we just open without tests?"
nos.nl/artikel/237898… Image
The Health Director of #Vietnam´s Yen Bai Province has just been suspended.

One chinese expert had completed quarantine, then travelled around the region and then, upon his departure to China was found to be
*positive* (caused several infections)...
🤷
yenbai.gov.vn/noidung/tintuc… Image
Seems
the (later positive) chinese expert spent his quarantine from April 9 to April 23...

in THE SAME HOTEL in Yen Bai (#Vietnam) where the #B1617-infected experts from India arrived on April 18.
(and one guard was also infected)

🙄uh-ohhhh...
gockhampha.com/bi-thu-yen-bai… Image
This is criminal (maybe):

It wasn´t just 1 of the staff in a doctor´s practice in Schwerin (Germany), who worked while being #COVID19 positive,
but several (including the doctor).

Fully aware
and deliberately using no masks...
Sending 240 to quarantine.
ndr.de/nachrichten/me…
Germany had ~5 doctors per 1,000 citizens.
about 400.000 for 83 million.

Many will quit their job, exhausted and frustrated or sick, after the pandemic.
Image
This was #Denmarks vaccination plan, 2 weeks ago.
AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson were strong pillars...
sst.dk/-/media/Udgive… Image
After withdrawing AstraZeneca from their vaccination programme, #Denmark now also removed Johnson&Johnson (due to blood clot problem).

With reopening currently in full swing, there´s now a huge gap in the vaccination plan...

Last hope: seasonality effect
ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politi…
Soon in #Switzerland,
nobody needs to worry about #Variants anymore:

they stopped federal funding for the search for variants.

~"As we won´t act differently in case we would find one, it makes no sense to know if it´s a variant-case"...
🤷
srf.ch/news/schweiz/b…
#Austria still cares about variants.
And so today they´re investigating another suspected #B1617 case.
He came back from #India on April 23.

Via #Germany...
(yes, Germany had not halted flights back then and transit would not require quarantine...)
noe.orf.at/stories/310211…
This is #B1617,
preparing its grand entrance in #England.

The good thing: they brought their #COVID19 cases down to such a low number that their contact tracing might actually work...
Note well:
it´s not #B1617´s grand entrance yet,
just the preparation.
(as most of these cases are still travel-related).

That´s why proper contact tracing & quarantine is so important to stop this thing before it can get into the community.
🤦oh...
It says
"cases from travellers excluded".

So what we are seeing is indeed an approximate picture of #B1617 spread in England´s community.
📈↗️
A man from India had completed his 14 day #quarantine in #Vietnam and was released after multiple ´negative´ tests.

Now, 2 days later, he had another test.
This time ´positive´...

His appartment block is now sealed off.
Samples are going for sequencing.
gockhampha.com/phong-toa-toa-…
#Denmark´s parliament is quite confident that seasonality effect will drive #COVID19 further down.
Tonight, they decided to advance the reopening.

(Like e.g. up to 2.000 visitors in blocks of 500 in venues, provided a test/vaccination certificate)
nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2021-0… Image
#Denmark wants to go ahead,
even with slight warning signs:

"Our reproduction number has now risen to R~1.1,
but that was expected, due to recent reopenings.

Thursday we´re going to open a lot more.
So let´s all remember the basic #COVID19 rules..."
🙄
Too bad,
as part of ´critical infrastructure´ they would have been eligible to have their #COVID19 vaccination in ~2 weeks.

But now a ´sudden wave of infections´ has infected many city employees in #Stuttgart (Germany).

No collection of hazardous waste🤷
stuttgart.de/pressemitteilu… Image
Some streets will also remain unsweeped, in #Stuttgart (personnel infected with #COVID19).

Also the city´s traffic utility has a surge in cases.
"No need to worry! We know how ~half of the infections happened."

(but they won´t tell how...🤫)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#France is happy.

Not one departement is above the magical "Incidence 400".
So everyone will be free to enjoy the next wave of #reopenings, starting on May 19.
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
So far, #B1617 doesn´t seem to stop the reopenings in #France.

Yes, there are 3 new confirmed cases in Bordeaux.
But the infection has ´only spread to the family´ of a returnee from India, with "everyone being isolated at home."
lci.fr/sante/covid-19…
Not much worry about #B1617 in #Germany.

Although it´s not really contained🙄
One case hase been found in a returnee from India in Gladbeck (North Rhine-Westphalia).
He had already infected 2 contacts in another city...

"It´s only a Variant of Interest"
presse-service.de/data.aspx/stat… Image
#Sydney:
"You think everything is fine
but then all of a sudden it´s not"

A #COVID19 case
he has not been abroad
does not work in the quarantine system
but has a ´high´ viral load,
has been to a cinema and many more venues
has been infectious for ~5 days
#Sydney still has no idea, where their latest #COVID19 case may have been infected.

But he has been roaming a large area (especially barbecue grill stores, a cinema,...), while being infectious.
The mysterious Sydney #COVID19 case came very close to a quarantine hotel (visiting an optometrist in the hotel's basement.)
It's interesting to see how potential contacts of the #Sydney case self-quarantine, even despite a 'negative' test.

(in Europe, this won't happen, as most contact tracing has collapsed a long time ago...)
smh.com.au/politics/nsw/n…
Also interesting:

#NSW health checked their entire database and found ONE matching sequence.
The likely source of infection is a returnee from USA, quarantined in Sydney.
And he is confirmed to carry the #B1617 variant.

No clue about transmission path...
Yes,
there are 2 local transmissions in #Sydney, now.
(the "mystery" case´s wife´s test results finally came back ´positive´...
9news.com.au/national/coron…
Meanwhile,
#Norway declares they might have been able to break the infection chain of #B1351, the ´South Africa´ variant.
It had caused some worrisome outbreaks, but in the last 2 weeks, only very few cases were added.

(~only #B117 remains, for now)
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
The telephone network in Tokyo (#Japan) is fearing overload, due to a surge in phone calls for reservations of vaccination appointments.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
The ´Brazil´ variant #P1 is spreading in parts of northern #Germany.

Officials:
"it´s not locally confined,
it´s all over the district"

"we think it´s also spreading in other districts,
they just don´t know it yet (there´s little screening for variants)"
ndr.de/nachrichten/me… Image
South-West #Germany,
development of #B1617 (´India´ variant) cases:

April 22: -

April 28: 2
April 29: 6
May 04: 9
May 06: 18
(that´s in one week...)
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/de/fachinf… Image
A biosecurity lab at Wageningen University (#Netherlands) has trained bees🐝 as #COVID19 detection devices.
They are put into harnesses and then trained with samples from infected minks.

🙄
nu.nl/uit-andere-med…
Leisure industry in the #Netherlands is against ´testing for entry´:
"it´s dangerous, because tests are not accurate"

"it´s an additional barrier that puts people off.
We´d rather just keep our business closed until no tests will be required to enter"...
nos.nl/artikel/237963…
(here we go again...🙄)
Pressure from #Germany´s trade association:

"Open all stores immediately!
and where 7day-incidence goes below 100,
do away with all the shopping-test requirements!"
handelsblatt.com/dpa/wirtschaft…
#Iceland is the first country (to my knowledge) to introduce #COVID19 test positivity rates to classify high-risk countries !👍

(BTW: while #Germany is boasting about "no more tests at incidences below 100!" their positivity rate >12% tells the story...)
covid.is/undirflokkar/h… Image
Bad timing, 2 months ago:

"#Germany´s 2nd wave is broken!

Is a 3rd wave ahead - due to not enough vaccine, not enough tests and a forced wave of openings?"

(soon after, #B117 surged massively)
br.de/nachrichten/wi…
Today:
"Germany´s 3rd wave is broken!"

But:
-tests galore, but the need for testing is starting to be denied
-unwanted AZ vaccine & scarcity of other vaccines
-a forced wave of openings

🙄oh, well. Go ahead. We´ve been there before.
tagesschau.de/inland/corona-…
#UK
#B1617(.2), a "Variant of Concern"

Well you know,
they have a chance for real contact tracing.

And they say "almost half of them are travel related or from contact with travellers"

🙄uh, so it´s more than 50% who are NOT travel related...
This is,
what moved #UK PHE from "interest" to "concern":

Last week, they had 202 cases of #B1617(.2)
In just one week, they detected 318 more...
gov.uk/government/pub… Image
#B1617(.2) is there, and rising.
Wow, #Norway is really reacting fast!

"We see cases of #B1617 doubling in the UK within a week.
This could threaten our current plan for reopenings.

It may need heavier measures than we used for #B117, to slow this variant..."
nrk.no/nyheter/indisk…
(autotranslated:) Image
In Osaka region (#Japan),
intensive care occupation surpassed 100%, the past few days.
Many had been told to wait at home.
Now they are being rushed in, in critical state...
😟
covid19-osaka.info/en/ Image
Medical staff in #Tokyo put protest transparents on a hospital´s windows:

"We´re over capacity - Stop Olympics!"

(10.000 nurses were demanded for the Olympics,
while nurses from rural prefectures are dispatched to help in big cities with #COVID19 surges)
blogos.com/article/534289/
An online petition to
"cancel the #Tokyo Olympics to save lives"
was started 2 days ago.
It has now collected ~250.000 signatures.
change.org/p/cancel-the-t…
In #Vietnam,
7 outbreaks have been recorded, this week.

The number of cases shouldn´t be a problem.
But one outbreak hit the country´s main #COVID19 hospital. 69 people infected,
including visitors who then brought it home.
It also reached another clinic.
ncov.moh.gov.vn/web/guest/-/68… Image
The current hospital outbreaks in #Vietnam caused ~7.600 people to become "contacts".

(the autotranslation says ´cases´ which should be incorrect - but managing this amount of contacts is still an awful lot of work...😓)
ncov.moh.gov.vn/en/-/6847426-3… Image
"a lot of work":
One of the hospitals in #Vietnam will need to get 4.000 contacts tested.

They say the task will be completed in 24 hours...
ncov.moh.gov.vn/web/guest/-/68… Image
#MV, North-East #Germany:

"The ´Brazil´ Variant #P1 is established in at least
3 districts.
It was first detected 4 weeks ago and has now 2.4% share.

This is worrying:
it even rises while the dominating #B117 variant slowed down."
comv-gen.de/fileadmin/user… Image
~"Currently, variant data should be taken with a grain of salt - as B117 was the dominant variant anyway, there was less variant screening done recently."

(There could be more of other variants like #P1 around, than known...)

Recommendation:
create a P1 Containment Task Force⚠️ Image
About #B1617(.2)
in the #UK:

Yes, in the first tweet of this thread she talks about "quite disturbing facts".
Don´t worry - she finishes this thread with
"we may not end up like India,

But it´s still not great"😕
One additional outtake from UK´s #B1617 report:

interesting to see how many #B1617 cases #Germany has detected by sequencing.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
"At the end of April,
there was an outbreak of #B11519 in #Denmark.
This is the most common variant in Mexico, but the first time it caused an outbreak in DK.

It´s not more transmissible than the old ´wild type´ variant"...
👆THIS should be worrying⚠️
The #B11519 outbreak in #Denmark happened IN a RESTAURANT.
Since April 21 they were allowed to reopen indoors for everyone with a negative antigen test, max 72 h old(!)

"Someone brought the variant into the restaurant and then it spread over several days"
berlingske.dk/danmark/over-5…
According to Denmark´s Health Minister there is "currently a situation with #B11519".

I´d say:
🤔if this variant isn´t more transmissible than the old wild type,
it serves to show how easy any variant can spread under current Restaurant opening conditions
Actually this example shows how effectively #Denmark´s restaurant opening protocol can spread infections:

"We have just fund 17 more cases of the #B11519 variant"

🙄 (and this is a not very transmissible variant, as they said)
dr.dk/nyheder/senest…
#Denmark is taking the #B11519 outbreak more serious, it seems.

(Note: google´s translation of this tweet isn´t correct.
The health authorities now don´t just look for contacts.

THEY ARE SEARCHING FOR CONTACTS OF CONTACTS (secondary contacts))...🤨
Image
#Denmark has an "automatic" #Lockdown clause
and it applies now for a part of Horsens community.

Positivity rate 3.6% (2.5 allowed)
7- day incidence 531 (500 allowed)
39 cases (20 allowed)

▶️Schools, cinemas, private meetings,...
everything cancelled.
tvsyd.dk/horsens/klar-o… Image
Communities in #Norway don´t have an "automatic" Lockdown.
Those decisions are decided locally and case-specific.

Today, #Risør community decided to ask their ~7.000 citizens to cancel all plans for the weekend.

"We have an unclear infection-situation"
risor.kommune.no/tjenester/hels… Image
How many cases would it take to shut down a town of 7.000 like Risør, #Norway?

One.

One family dad infected wife and 3 kids,
they went to school & kindergarten...

>150 contacts.

Risør had very few cases, so far.
Now they face a complete shut-down.
risor.kommune.no/tjenester/hels… Image
Last week was ´Golden Week´ in #Japan.
A period of consecutive holidays.

Today: #COVID19 records.
😟
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
#Japan´s post-holiday #COVID19 wave comes with unexpected force.
Especially the more rural prefectures are hit.
(Hiroshima or Ishikawa prefectures see their cases double within one day!)
😱
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/c… Image
#Belgium today:

"At first, there were cases in returnees from India.
Then it was in contacts of returnees.

And now, we have #B1617 cases in people with no link to India at all.

#B1617 is spreading here.
It might spread faster than #B117..."
hln.be/borsbeek/bewon… Image
Belgium doesn´t know how far #B1617 is already spread.

They found one #B1617 cluster by chance, today:

Residents of a nursing home,
who had been fully vaccinated.

Most residents there had also been infected ~one year ago, already...
(see old article):
hln.be/borsbeek/72-va…
Meanwhile, in #Germany:

"Fully #vaccinated persons are exempt from
-curfew
-quarantine (e.g. after close contact or returning from holidays in a #COVID19 risk country)

It´s the law. (Since sunday)
With exceptions if a "concerning variant" is involved...
bundesanzeiger.de/pub/publicatio… Image
Sunday in #Germany (Freiburg):

1.600 doses of unused #AstraZeneca vaccine are given away as "first come, first served" to everyone.
No need to fulfill the usual prioritization requirements.
#Indonesia:

"Four patients with the #B1617 mutation have been treated since January.

However, due to the long verifying process (to be really sure it´s the ´India´ variant), it was only announced on May 8

In the meantime it´s likely it has spread a lot"
🔵Due to

🔸Increased transmissibility
🔸some reduced neutralization

#B1617 is now officially classified as
"Variant of Concern"🔵
Less than one week ago,
One case of #B1617 was found at Bergen University (#Norway).

Then infections of 4 contacts.

Now some of those contacts´ contacts tested ´positive´.

How many ?
"A few"...
nrk.no/vestland/miste…
#Denmark:
"In February we had ~300 #COVID19 cases per day.
Now it´s ~900 per day.

~The increase was expected – and inevitable – due to our recent reopenings.

But it´s mostly young ones. They will not occupy the hospitals much"...
🙄
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Everything goes as planned, in #Denmark:

"Cases are increasing, but that´s normal with the reopenings - nothing to worry.
There will also be more lockdowns, but hopefully shorter ones"...

(🤔Oh. So, this is the price we´ll pay for reopenings?...)
tv2lorry.dk/koebenhavn/pre…
Currently,
only 5-10% of all new cases are sequenced,
in #Belgium.

Nevertheless, they found 19 additional cases of #B1617, today

"Maybe it´s circulating more than we thought..."
radio1.be/viroloog-johan…
Seems parts of #UK / England see exponential growth of
#B1617(.2).

In a community
with still (some) restrictions in place,
and (relatively) high vaccination rate...
Unintended irony:

"Early signs are also promising for the #variants.

Some scientists are even suggesting the #UK could be on brink of reaching herd immunity."
bbc.com/news/uk-570508…
(They say, this decision is 'irreversible'):

"From Monday 17 May indoor hospitality (pubs, restaurants, etc.) can reopen and indoor entertainment can resume, including cinemas, museums, and children’s play areas."

And no masks at schools anymore...
gov.uk/government/new…
Interestingly,
#UK´s decision is taken due to retrospective indicators
(´look how nice things worked up to now´).

The only anticipatory point (assessment of new Variants of Concern) was swiftly ticked off as
"no (big) worries"...

But they warned everyone to be cautious.
🙄 Image
BTW: there´s no testing for access in UK.

An outbreak-ridden restaurant owner in #Denmark,
finds rapid (antigen) tests are trash anyway.

"I think we need something better than these rapid tests to be safe. We are considering getting a thermometer..."
sn.dk/Villabyerne/Ga…
Restaurant owner:

"I had one employee who was tested in the morning and was ´negative´.
When he went home in the evening he was tested again: ´positive´.
So he was running around the whole day infecting people..."

(Maybe this is how the #B11519 outbreak in #Denmark started) Image
Interestingly,
things have gone very, very quiet about the outbreak from a restaurant in #Denmark.

It hasn´t stopped.
Yesterday, more cases were added. The case count is now at least 87.

Remember: it´s the rare #B11519 variant (NOT highly transmissible).
#Denmark´s reproduction number is R~1.1, today

"It is rising slowly but steadily.
We can control it with behaviour and our ´superweapons´ testing, tracing and vaccinating"...

(says Denmark´s Health Minister)
One notorious superhero accessory is missing in #Denmark´s plan:
the mask

Today, discussions started when the right time would be to get rid of them.
"They surely need to go as soon as everyone is vaccinated"
(The Health Minister wouldn´t comment on this)
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0…
"If you were worried about the crowds on King´s Day...

(2 weeks ago, the #Netherlands´ national outdoor party day, celebrating everything and the King´s birthday, too)

...you were right.
#Amsterdam has found 17 large #clusters, related to this day"
nu.nl/coronavirus/61…
I know you´ve been partying...
Obviously,
it´s the age group 20-29 that likes to party in the #Netherlands.

(Their positive test rate started surging directly after "King´s Day", April 27).
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Meanwhile in #Norway,
some folks are about to crash it all...
😕
(example: Skien region)
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
"Contact tracing in #Skien region is about to collapse"
"Over 50 new cases per day, some have up to 30 close contacts"
🙄
Many of them get infected at "Russ"-Parties.
Russ are #Norway´s students, celebrating transition from school to university for *weeks*
nrk.no/vestfoldogtele…
Hope in India...
?
On #evasion:

"So, if 10 copies of the neutralising antibodies were needed to destroy the previous virus, the body may need to create 15 copies for #B1617.

This also means that the virus will stay in the body longer and transmit to others”
If that data from India manifests
in a #NextWave,

Nobody will care for your vaccine passport.
It will not grant you access,
it will not spare you a test,
nor (then ~3 week) quarantine.

It´s just for you.
As a reminder that you have a good chance.
While most in the West were sleeping...
...#Japan encountered a complete blackout of their entire vaccination management system, when their day started.

"No log in possible to the #salesforce server"
mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunit… Image
🤷

From tomorrow on,
travellers to #Germany will not need to present a ´negative´ test result,
-if they either have been vaccinated
-or had been infected with #COVID19 earlier

(conditions apply for travellers from officially declared #Variant areas)
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen…
The #B11519 outbreak from a restaurant in #Denmark may have been caused by "one guest who came directly from the airport and infected one employee" (who then infected others)

Authorities won´t confirm.
Denmark seems to be very relaxed about infections.
🙄
sn.dk/Villabyerne/Po… Image
#Norway is not so relaxed about their ´Russ´/graduating class infections issue:

Late at night, when the #school in Horten learnt they had 10 ´positive´ graduates, they sent out a prompt text message:

~"School will be locked tomorrow.
Everybody stay away"
vtfk.no/skoler/horten-… Image
#Norway also has an outbreak of #B1617 at Bergen University.
It´s "only few cases" and "it´s under control".🙄
But their week report shows this new variant is rising...
(top right corner)
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
#Germany´s variant report says:

"only a few cases of #B1617 appeared recently,
but their trend is continuously rising"
(B1.617.1 yellow
B1.617.2 brown
strikingly rising, bottom right)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
A feast...

#Germany´s south-west state Baden-Württemberg suddenly announced that not only outdoor but also #indoor gastronomy may be allowed to reopen.
(when incidence<100🤷)

As early as saturday (in 3 days),
accessible for tested or vaccinated guests
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Germany´s rosy promises for vaccinated persons now collide with harsh reality:

"Those who already had their 1st shot
have priority now to get their 2nd shot.

To those who weren´t so lucky:
sorry, no stuff left for you.
Maybe ask again in a month or so"
rnd.de/politik/impfze… Image
😧This is potentially disruptive:
#Karlsruhe:
"We will be urged to stop 1st vaccinations,
maybe even cancel 2nd vaccinations, due to lack of supply.
All the while federal politics are boasting about huge amounts of vaccines and make promises.
Please stop!"
You know - having been vaccinated is about more than being entitled to enter a restaurant...
#UK´s Prime Minister warning about
"a new variant, causing increasing concern in the UK”

is something we heard before, isn´t it?
👨‍👧"Dad, one day I wanna be like you."
"Huh...?"
"Yeah - you´re vaccinated".
So where do England´s recent #COVID19 outbreaks happen?

e.g.: Schools, college, pub.
liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool…
Grown-ups always know best:

"Wearing a mask during lessons has been one of many sacrifices children have made over the last year in our fight against the pandemic

and I know they will welcome this latest step towards a return to normal school life".
😷❌
bbc.com/news/education…
Recently,
I sometimes think of a discussion I had with the normative committee about "acceptable step heights in fire escape routes".
I mean: a 1m step would simply leave children and elderly behind.

The simple answer was: "Yes, we know".
#SocietalConsent
ddh.de/aktuell/aussti…
How to get rid of unwanted #AstraZeneca:

1."Fully vaccinated holidaygoers will need no quarantine"
2. "2nd shot of AZ may be applied after just 4 weeks" (in time for summer holidays).
3. "AZ is now accessible for everyone !"

AZ-scarcity in #Germany, now.
Germany´s decision to prioritize 2nd doses right now
& the #AstraZeneca (shortened 1st+2nd dose period) ´sellout´ mean:

for the next month or so, #Germany´s share of at least partly vaccinated people will not rise much above ~35%.
😕
ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat… Image
#UK: Just testing won´t help.

"The current strategy (´surge testing´) was identifying cases but not stopping the spread.

Cases of #B1617(.2) were being seen in many places with no links to travel and case numbers have been ´grossly underestimated´."
#UK #B1617 #SurgeVaccination
They have just started.
Not waiting for permission.

(Be fast - have no regrets...)
Always a useful reminder:
~"the greatest error is not to move"~

#Blackburn: "NHS England is now demanding to know why they are going against priority list."

~"if you need to be right before you move, you will never win"~
Meanwhile,
Germany´s priority is to squander as many doses of #AstraZeneca as possible with promises like

"it will make your holidays possible"

Fully aware, that the promoted 4 week intervall between jabs leeds to reduced vaccine effectiveness (~50%)😠
aerztezeitung.de/Nachrichten/As… Image
🤔
soooo,
it was all some "misunderstanding"
with #Blackburn and the #SurgeVaccinations
🤷‍♂️
bbc.com/news/uk-englan… Image
So how does always perfectly organized #Japan fare in terms of vaccination progress?

2.91%
😟
#Perfection
There´s not enough qualified staff.
There´s perfectly equal distribution of vaccine, resulting in sporadic delivery of tiny amounts to smaller towns.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
#UK
#B1617(.2)

520 cases last week
1.313 cases now

(The ´India´ variant in UK has again⚠️more than doubled in 1 week)
#Germany
Baden-Württemberg

Safewashing
Baden-Württemberg (#Germany):

One guest
per 2.5 m2

*inside* a restaurant
(thus without masks)

with untested vaccinated guests,
no quarantines,
all ICU´s in our city full...

🤔Naaa, thanks.
I´ll stay away from "enjoying" this for the foreseeable time.
baden-wuerttemberg.de/fileadmin/reda… Image
🤷
#UK´s measures aren´t "new".

It´s a list of measures they were warned that
they wouldn´t work against the current surge of
#B1617.
🤦
gov.uk/government/new… Image
Test,
test,
test and
test
so that we all can watch in awe
"OH, that´s really spreading fast"

We´re already doing that.
That´s why it´s already called ´Variant of Concern´

#B1617(.2) #UK
gov.uk/government/new… Image
#UK
One more appeal for #SurgeVaccinations:

"We think now it´s urgent"
"This is good for everywhere - if we contain the virus in Bolton it would not spread around the country"
Norway also wants to allocate more vaccines to the capital region around Oslo.
"Most of the outbreaks started there and then spread over the country".

But they´d need to take vaccines from other towns.
Especially those with current outbreaks are revolting
nrk.no/vestfoldogtele…
Just received a state-wide EMERGENCY WARNING on my phone:

"☣️Risk of Infection!⚠️
Hazard information:
The recent modifications to our COVID-rules will allow several branches to reopen..."

🤔ooookayy... maybe I´ll not go to town, then.😉 Image
Of course I won´t refrain from going out.
But I won´t 😖be sharing a crowded, ill-ventilated indoor restaurant with noisy maskless vaccinated thus untested folks at 1.5m distance.

(Germany´s #RKI also thinks ´testing the vaccinated should be obvious´)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Best explanation by one Red-Cross worker, giving away free antigen test kits in #France:

"Be aware you´ll take a risk when visiting your family.
This test is for AFTER your visit.
Wait 48 hours before using it. Then you´ll know if you got infected there."
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
The first evacuation flight in weeks,
from #India to #Australia.
150 Australians were booked and ready.

Shortly before the start:
40 tested ´positive´
70 are close contacts.

The plane will leave without them.
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-1…
This is extraordinary:

Germany´s #RKI has just declared entire #UK to be a #COVID19 "Risk Area" again !

"Despite the very low incidence (below 50),
this decision is based on the (at least limited) prevalence of #B1617(.2)"
😲
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
So,
#UK wants to give more vaccine to the over 40´s (speeding up the 2nd jab to after 8 weeks), so they´ll be safe.

And the plan to #reopen on monday still stands.

(Oh: and there´s plenty of tests available for the younger population for free)
"We expect, over time,
this #B1617(.2) variant to overtake and come to dominate in the #UK, in the way that #B117 did earlier..."

(Seems they don´t believe it can be confined to specific regions by #SurgeVaccinations or ´taking away vaccine from others´)
And so #B1617(2) is popping up at the next place:
"It´s only a small number of cases"
but
"With restrictions easing next week, this is a reminder to us all that the virus is still with us and we need to proceed with caution...."
#UK
dudley.gov.uk/news/testing-i…
Interestingly,
SAGE (#UK´s official advisory panel) hurried to publish minutes of their advise.

Details: #B1617.2 might be up to 50% more transmissible than B117

This could mean a wave of hospitalisations, larger than previous ones (if reopenings occur)
gov.uk/government/pub… Image
#Portugal confirmed,
that from monday (May17)
tourists from #UK will be highly welcome to the country.
Not only for the Champions League match.

(EU would discuss lifting travel restrictions on May19 and they´re sure restrictions will be gone anyway, then)
itv.com/news/2021-05-1…
Just 2-3 days ago,
#Spain promised to work hard, so tourists from #UK would be able to come to Europe (at least Spain)

WITHOUT the need to present a ´negative´ PCR test or any proof of vaccination.

"In this life, you have to take risks"

(autotranslate)
vozpopuli.com/espana/gobiern… Image
In January,
#France reported every single new case of #B117.
Where it popped up, how they got infected, how they had travelled.

Now, with #B1617,
they only count outbreaks:
"it started ~5 weeks ago.
Since then, we notice 4 to 8 outbreaks per week".
santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-tr… Image
The number of #B1617 cases in #France isn´t public.
We just know it´s 24 outbreaks (´episodes´), so far.

An outbreak may be one person.
But there are also entire ship crews.
Mostly travel related.
But 2 family ´episodes´ have no known link to India...
bfmtv.com/sante/au-moins…
#France claims,
one of their #B1617.2 outbreaks might have been started from a visit in #Switzerland.
That might be a reasonable claim...

Geneva🇨🇭(CH) has just confirmed:
They found at least 15 cases,
and it´s spreading in the community.
ge.ch/actualite/pres… Image
From "0" to 180 cases ´over night´.
That´s quite a shock for #Taiwan.

It´s said it is #B117, nothing too fancy.
But an outbreak of this scale was simply ´unimaginable´ for many...
newbloommag.net/2021/05/15/180…
How could this happen?

"How #Taiwan lost containment of #COVID19"

It has something to do with housing quarantined pilots
and regular tourists together in one hotel building...
taipology.substack.com/p/how-taiwan-f…
Weak point in #Taiwan´s outbreak preparations:

nobody wanted to get vaccinated

They had only #AstraZeneca in stock.
´best before´ date: May 31
Available to everyone, but very little interest.
There were virtually no outbreaks, so why take the risk?
ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat… Image
The current outbreak has changed peoples´ attitude.

"#Taiwan´s vaccination rate surges dramatically"

🙄to ~0.55% of their population.

(and they didn´t have much vaccine in stock, so this boost may soon be over)
taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4202722
There might be one rational argument for #UK speeding up full vaccination of those who already have one jab,
instead of #SurgeVaccinations in an attempt to stop #B1617.2 from spreading:

vaccines can´t stop the spread.
😕
itv.com/news/2021-05-1…
News in India suggests
the worst #COVID19 phase may soon be over
in many parts of #India.
News in India suggests
the relaxed #COVID19 phase may soon be over
in the #UK.
#Denmark´s SSI still has interest in the variant #B11519.

It´s the ´not very transmissible´ variant, that (is believed) started its path when one infected person from abroad visited an indoor #restaurant.
Masks+Test were obligatory.

It isn´t stopping yet
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
#COVID19 Infection numbers are significantly rising,
after #Denmark´s wide reopening.

(and it´s more unfair than I´d expect...)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa4… Image
No surprise, is it?:

"We see a marked increase in the incidence for young people between 15 and 24 years.

We see outbreaks related to schools as well as social and party activities in the young people's circle of acquaintances."
But I wouldn´t expect this,
from "we´re in this together" #Denmark:

~"Dear youth, you´re at the end of the waiting line for vaccination.
So let the vaccinated have their fun and behave,
because if you don´t, you´ll ruin it for everyone"

(autotranslated):
dr.dk/nyheder/indlan… ImageImage
#Taiwan´s #B117 outbreak is gaining speed:
206 new domestic cases detected.
The effect of one #B117 ´mishap´ on an unheeding society.
According to #Taiwan´s official statistics.

(side note:
*asymptomatic cases are not shown)
This is just the number of infected who developped symptoms!🙄
sites.google.com/cdc.gov.tw/201… Image
Meanwhile,
in #UK:

"#B1617.2 can spread like wildfire among the unvaccinated"

~if you can get vaccinated, better do it now.
(but it´s not many that will get a chance now, because the focus is on re-vaccinating those who already had their first jab)🤷
bbc.com/news/live/uk-5… Image
#UK:
~is reopening, because there´s a slight chance it might not end completely catastrophic

And if it still does end in (your personal) disaster,
it´s your fault.
They told you to be careful...
🤨
bbc.com/news/live/uk-5… Image
Bolton, one of #UK´s current #B1617 hotspots.

Yes, the vaccine will have no immediate effect,
yes, vaccines may not have 100% effect,
yes, queuing is an infection risk,

but it´s one thing that can be done ´actively´.
Feels better than locking up.
Seems the queues for vaccination in Bolton were due to the mayor overriding quite a bit of red tape with a simple tweet:

📣~"come to the vaccine bus - we´ll find a reason to get you vaccinated... Every dose must go!"~
If we were speculating, we´d guess something´s brewing in #Scotland.
But we shouldn´t.
We´ll wait until the complete genome sequencing is done.

But I guess it´s okay to worry, already.
#B1617.2
Vappu (May Day)
marks the end of wintertime in #Finland.
It´s widely celebrated.

At least 2 Vappu Brunches then lead to a series of #COVID19 infections.
Keski-Pohjanmaa (Central Ostrobothnia) region now has a large cluster with ~1.000 quarantined...
#Finland´s regional authorities have just declared Central Ostrobothnia to have entered the

"Transmission Phase"
(there´s community spread).

And it´s mostly among the young people...
Image
Central Ostrobothnia:
Just to be sure,
regional authorities had sent 6 samples for analysis in order to find possible mutations...

All 6 samples were confirmed to carry #B1617...

(~so, the ´India´ variant seems to be spreading in #Finland, at the moment)
korona.soite.fi/en/ten-new-cas… Image
This shows the impact of the outbreak on #Finland´s Central Ostrobothnia (2 days old, today´s numbers are higher).

Note:
the "exposure sites" are all over daily life.
Mass transit, Shops, Restaurants, Schools,...
that´s where #B1617 will go, with openings
#B1617
It escalated quickly...

"Coronavirus infections are now spreading rapidly among young people."

"The incidence rate in Central Ostrobothnia has become one of the highest in the country,
even though ~2 weeks ago the region had #Finland's lowest."
yle.fi/uutiset/osasto…
Uh...
#Finland´s outbreak is serious, it seems.

~"This virus (#B1617) is hugely contagious.
It is spreading even when the rules are followed"

"se leviää kulovalkean tavoin."
(It spreads like wildfire...
🙄didn´t we hear this earlier today, from UK?)
keskipohjanmaa.fi/uutinen/616126 Image
😯
#India is running out of vaccines.

"the government‘s Covishield stock may last about eight days for the 18-44 age group"
Prioritizing in #India:

"In the hope of finding doses, some people of the 45+ age group were seen doing making rounds of hospitals and various #vaccine centres,
but were turned away by the staff as only young adults were being inoculated there."
While #UK speeds up the second dose to 8 weeks,
#India extends the intervall to 16 weeks.

(Covishield is a brand name of #AstraZeneca vaccine)
#UK is in a different mood.
Peer pressure, instead of herd immunity.

Drinking can go inside from Monday.
🍻
'You never know when you'll get your life taken away from you again',
how can you say no to that?"
😳
bbc.com/news/newsbeat-…
Domestic cases detected in #Taiwan´s current #COVID19 (#B117) outbreak:

Today: 333
Yesterday: 206
day before: 180
day before: 29
day before: 13

For scale:
~about 90% of Taiwan´s (domestic) cases during the entire pandemic happened in the last 4-5 days
#Taiwan will now be blocking entry for non-residents and all transit travellers,
"due to #COVID19 surges in Taiwan and other countries"...
cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/De… Image
#Taiwan´s premier is reminding everyone that spreading fake news about the pandemic would be punishable with 3 years in prison / 3 million won fine.

🤔I used official Taiwan #MOHW data, so I think I´m safe...
#Finland´s outbreak of #B1617 in Central Ostrobothnia:
"The situation has worsened significantly."

23 new cases and some more exposures sites.
An "extensive chain of infections"...
(a job recruiting day at one school may also have played a role)
korona.soite.fi/en/situational… Image
The region of #Finland, where #B1617 is spreading ´like wildfire´ has a quite respectable vaccination rate: 41% (first dose)

But it´s mostly spreading in the young people - only very few of them have been vaccinated so far (~3-5%, those ´at risk´)
korona.soite.fi/en/corona-vacc… ImageImage
#Londons´s mayor urges vaccines for young adults in Indian variant (#B1617) areas...

but ´does not have the power to organise vaccinations, a role carried out by the NHS´.
🤷
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Looking at Bolton,
one of #UK´s #B1617 hotspots
it becomes clear what a difference #vaccinations make:

incidence for over 60 year olds: ~65
incidence for younger than 60´s: ~340

completely different prospects.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
While London is entangled in red tape,
Bolton is a bit more... pragmatic:

´The approach, while sticking to the vaccination rules, is:
“We’re looking for reasons to jab you,
not for reasons not to jab you.”

Many teenagers got their 1st dose, this weekend.
theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/m…
Sapporo (#Japan) has seen record case numbers in recent days.
And they noticed something is different:
more and more younger (20+) patients arrive in ICUs.

Currently #B117 is spreading there.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Japan,

where clear rules
sound like a negotiation with inconsequent parents

(🤔 ... it really works like this - You know everyone will be really disappointed if you don´t listen. So if you´re not a really bad person, you do as it is said)
hiecc.or.jp/soudan/emg/ind… Image
From next week,
2 large scale vaccination centers will start operating in Osaka and Tokyo (for age groups 65+, exclusively).

Reservations for #Osaka´s vaccination center started today.
All 25.000 vaccination slots were reserved
after 25 minutes...
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Meanwhile,
in #Germany

´❌´: this station has no vaccine available for this age group

´Warteraum´: too many clicks at the moment. Stay in the waiting line to see if there are vaccine doses available at this station (usually not))
🙄
impfterminradar.de/?state=baden_w… Image
I´ve learned a lot from the tech-savvy ladies in this tiny mountain village in Japan, who -in order to earn their living- need to win online auctions every morning...

But their tricks won´t work with Germany´s online vaccination appointment service...
🤷
Once more:
who is found to be infected, in #UK´s #B1617 hotspots?

Mostly those who were not eligible for vaccination, so far..
2 housing blocks quarantined in Velbert, #Germany.

"The ´India´ variant (#B1617) has been confirmed in several families".

Access control is already established,
testing for all 200 inhabitants shall be completed today...
www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/rh…
One family (maybe just one)
infected with #B1617.2 in northern #Germany,

after one family member had returned from India,
a while ago.

"All of them are in quarantine" (now...)).
No further contacts known at the moment.
kreis-pinneberg.de/Coronavirus/Pr… Image
In the #UK,
"There are now 86 local authorities where there are five or more confirmed cases,"

"Most of the cases of the Indian Covid variant #B1617 found in
seven households
in Chelmsford are
not linked to foreign travel..."
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Chelmsford (north-east of London),
officially: 7 housholds with B1617.2,
´no obvious link to travel´ for ´the majority´,

´likely that the variant is present in the community´.
essex.gov.uk/news/chelmsfor… Image
Now, this caused some formidable shitstorm in #Australia.

“Some people may die,
but it will be way smaller than with the flu.

also:
"as long as vaccination levels were high enough and vulnerable people were protected, the country should take the risk..."
smh.com.au/national/virgi…
The airline now trying to save it.

The good thing for #Australia:
they can just sit back end watch how the experiments are unfolding in Europe, where travel is resuming between countries with different vaccination rates...
Interesting points from #Australia´s Medical Association:
- #COVID19 is coming anyway, so get vaccinated
- but even then: Australia´s medical system cannot cope with simultanious #COVID19 & flu wave

🤔the flu - oh... shit.
couriermail.com.au/travel/travel-…
On the situation in Chelmsford/Essex (#UK),
very reassuring,

maybe except for that one part:

"we´ve seen it in ... (lists many communities)... this particularly variant (#B1617.2) is quite widespread at the moment"
🤨
Also reassuring:
#Switzerland´s #COVID19 Science Task Force is looking into possible reasons why reopenings didn´t have the bad effect they had predicted ~1 month ago.

And they also think #B1617 may not be as excessively transmissible as we believe it is.
#Finland´s authorities are busy trying to contain the #B1617 outbreak in Central Ostrobothnia.

They manged to find 90% of infection sources.
And the record amount of tests pushes the labs to their limits...
korona.soite.fi/en/11-cases-18… Image
11 new #B1617 cases for the statistics in Bremen (#Germany).
Confirmed on Monday & Tuesday.

But ´confirmation´ process is painfully slow.
5 of them had already completed their quarantine period.

There´s no real-time picture of the variant´s spread.
butenunbinnen.de/nachrichten/ge…
#Denmark´s SSI is evaluating their earlier predictions.

It seems the reopenings have far less negative effect than predicted.
Current case numbers (grey dots) stay well below predicted range (red area).

🧐(But that´s not true for everyone...)
ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/… Image
#Denmark´s SSI also states:

~"Currently, infections in 15-29 year olds are still below peak levels of the last wave.

But they are (rapidly) rising.
And this started with the reopening of #schools and secondary education."
ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/… Image
Also,
warning words from #Denmark´s SSI:

~"we have seen several recent outbreaks with more transmissible variants. It should be expected that our intensive contact tracing might not be able to contain this for long"

and:
"some young infected persons have lasting health effects" Image
Some estimates from #UK:

"The transmissibility advantage of #B1617.2 might be a little lower than first feared,"

But:
"There's some hints in the data
there's reduced vaccine efficacy
against infection & against transmission"
😐
reuters.com/world/uk/india…
Oh Germany.

Looks like your incapability to secure enough vaccine starts to cause some aggression in me...

"All vaccine is now needed for 2nd doses.
If you haven´t had your first shot yet, try again in a month"
Image
#Belgium.

A military shooting trainer is on the run with some heavy weaponry. He left some letters, indicating he might go after #virologists.

His car has been found.
At least a rocket launcher was still in the car.
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2021…
🤔Early monday,
there were
36.704.672 #UK citizens
who had already received their first #vaccine dose.
By the end of Tuesday that number had risen to
36.985.505.

an increase by
0.76 %
in these two days...
In #UK´s society,
where 7 in 10 adults have already received their first vaccine dose,

the variant #B1617.2
has managed to rise from
2.323 cases on Monday to
2.967 cases today.

a 28% increase
in these two days.🤨
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
A nice tool,
showing the distribution of #COVID19 variants in England.

(note: only shows sequenced samples, not full picture!
And it will always be with ~10 days delay, as long as identifying variants will take...)
covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?l… Image
90% of people in hospital with the #B1617.2 variant in Bolton have "not yet had two vaccines..."

🧐If that would mean 10% had 2 vaccine doses, I wouldn´t be too surprised. #Vaccines will help, but don´t expect too much...
Meanwhile in #Austria:
- great reopening of (nearly) everything, today.
- entry tests can be omitted for those who are partly vaccinated (1st dose is enough to replace a test, in Austria)...
sichere-gastfreundschaft.at/gastronomie/ Image
While #Germany excempts fully vaccinated persons from any test requirements and most quarantines,

Germany´s #RKI has now raised issues:
they even recommend isolating
*asymptomatic, fully vaccinated* persons
(who tested ´positive´!)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Germany´s variant report.

Note: the whole process with full sequencing, reporting,... until cases pop up in this report
takes ~2-3 weeks.

Outbreaks in the rearview mirror may appear smaller than they are.
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
This is how delayed #Germany´s view on #B1617 is:

Kleve district was informed ~May19, that 3 cases were #B1617. They were already quarantined since May03.

7 contacts had already tested ´positive´.

And there are links to schools, etc.
Testing starts NOW.
kevelaerer-blatt.de/erste-faelle-d… Image
#UK
"A tiny percentage of vaccinated people will get sick
and also
a tiny percentage of younger people without the vaccine.

But if the overall number of infections becomes large enough, those tiny percentages translate into substantial numbers of people"
politics.co.uk/comment/2021/0…
The number of #COVID19 infections in school age kids in Bolton (#UK) has suddenly surged to record levels...

“The rates that we are seeing in our school age population reflect transmission happening in the community.”
manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-m…
Vaccinated or not?
If not, why not?
Followed rules or not?...
Those discussions are happening somewhere else.

Here, it´s just:
Ohhh, not again.
independent.co.uk/news/health/bo…
Meanwhile,
parts of northern #Germany are preparing indoor shopping with
- NO tests
- NO masks
- NO limit of visitor numbers

as early as next week.

(The regional vaccination rates, there:
1st dose 40.1%, 2nd dose 10.9%)🤷
ndr.de/nachrichten/ni… Image
12 hours later:
"there will be
- NO indoor shopping without masks"

says the Health Secretary of the part of #Germany who reportedly was preparing to allow so...

"#masks save lives".
😷
As of today,
more of our extended family are vaccinated
than have died of #COVID19.

That´s quite something.
The last 2 vaccination appointments were last-minute appointments.

We believe some folks spontaneously cancelled their dates, when they heard which holiday options were possible, now.
🤷
goo.gl/maps/wjdFSAGFu… Image
There was this message from one town in #Belgium,
about cases of #B1617 in the region.

They´d be ´rather limited in number´.
But there´d be no big worries.

Just "take good care of you and your environment"...
🤨 (autotranslated)
putte.be/indische-varia… Image
It turns out:
-there are 31 cases of #B1617
-in 3 towns, north of Brussels
-246 "high risk contacts"
-linked to 4 schools

~"In contrast to what we did in earlier outbreaks,
this time we´re not going to intervene much.
Just be extra careful, everyone!"
😯
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2021… Image
😐 They´ll really do it...

#Spain will allow access for all vistors from #UK
with
NO test
NO quarantine
🤷
(This comes after EU Council came up with new travel regulations, giving member states wide room to interpret them)...
Yes, #EU regulations would foresee an "emergency brake" to all travel, if "a #Variant of concern / interest was detected" in #UK.

But there´s interpretation room
if UK´s situation is really ´worsening quickly´,
at the moment...
🤨
consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press… Image
´Room for interpretation´

#Germany has just declared entire #UK to be an
"Area of Variant Concern",
due to the spread of #B1617.

This means:
required test,
required quarantine
(even for fully vaccinated persons)
and NO ENTRY by rail, bus, ship or plane🤚
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Ireland:
#B1617 is "the most concerning variant" seen by NPHET since the emergence of #B117...

Dr Holohan said he has to "raise the flag" that it is possible that the Indian variant "could get in the way" of the current (not bad) trajectory in Ireland.
rte.ie/news/2021/0521…
#Ireland also has the issue of ~3 week delay until #B1617 cases are confirmed.

At the moment they get confirmations of cases from early May.
Which is: before arrivals from India were required to go to quarantine hotels (May4).
rte.ie/news/primetime… Image
Meanwhile,
local authorities in #UK discover that NHS´ ´rigid´ vaccination priorities also have some ´room for interpretations´.

e.g. Manchester is now urging EVERYONE OVER 18 to get vaccinated swiftly.
Even while they don´t see a Bolton-like surge, yet.
bbc.com/news/uk-englan… Image
#Germany has also reclassified #France in terms of #COVID19 risk. Instead of "High Risk" they´re labelled now as simple "Risk Area".

Unfortunately, France is now completely confused about what this means in practice...

(eh bah - vous n´êtes pas seuls🤷)
Many visitors from Alsace/#France would like to spend some time in Baden-Württemberg (#Germany).
But cities there got entangled in red tape, too.

After #Stuttgart had promised "grand reopenings",
they had to revoke that.

THEY CALCULATED IT WRONG
🤨🧮😖
stuttgart.de/service/aktuel… Image
4 days ago,
19 out of ~200 inhabitants of an appartment block in #Germany had been found infected with #B1617.

Today this was updated to
27 (seven families)

The working theory:
it was spreading via the lift !
www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/rh… Image
These days,
resocialise-advise videos pop up regularly.

A note:
If pretending "everything is normal" makes you feel unwell, you're not becoming "anti-social".
You're "careful". Caring for others and yourself.
For now, you don't need a psychologist.
Feel assured:
Being anxious and careful is not abnormal. There's reason in it.

(And to prevent becoming furious, I think I'll have a relaxed sunday morning bath & breakfast before opening any of this night's #PHE files...)
Tonight´s #UK PHE report shows how ´not normal´ the current situation in UK already is:

#B1617.2 is spreading fast, soon after it pops up, at any place.
And vaccination doe not stop it (North West has pretty average vaccination rates).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
There´s also further confirmation
that a first vaccination dose is likely not enough to stop the spread of #B1617.2

(most of under 18´s in #UK are not vaccinated at all,
as well as ~60% over 18 have not had a 2nd shot (or no vaccination at all)).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
To be clear:
one first vaccination shot may develop sufficient protection (after a while) to prevent you from having the worst #COVID19 effects, even from #B1617.2

But you will still be able to cause community outbreaks.

🤔Think twice about ´socialising´
Image
Will vaccines guarantee COVID-free normality?

It depends on what type of vaccine (in how many inhabitants) is confronted with which #COVID19 variant.

The world´s most vaccinated country was thrown back into restrictions, recently.
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-2…
If you´d say "herd immunity" needs
~60% who will not be "transmitters" of the virus,
there´s a simple table to show how many will need to be vaccinated:
As #UK would need ~75-100% of its entire population fully vaccinated to reach herd immunity,
they don´t seem to be fit to let their guard down, at the moment...
#France already "~hopes that #UK will make progress to get control over #B1617.2",
otherwise they would think about stricter rules for arrivals from UK...
🛳️
Clear requirement by Royal Caribbean cruises:

Everyone on board will need to be fully vaccinated
(having received all doses + 2 weeks)

Age dependent, but will certainly change with further roll-out of vaccines for younger ones.
royalcaribbean.com/faq/questions/… Image
Today,
"The first EU country to achieve herd immunity is #Malta!"😯
(by self-declaration.)

They say EU definition of #HerdImmunity was vaccinating 70% of population.
But it wasn´t saying it would need 2 jabs.
🙄😆🤣🙃

🤨No one asked the virus, though...
timesofmalta.com/articles/view/… Image
Tokyo (#Japan) has it´s first #Cluster of #B1617.

4 close contacts of a returnee from ´South Asia´ were positive and detected to carry #B1617.

There were also 10 more infected, but that was so long ago that no sequencing is possible anymore...
😕
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Now this:

a #Level4
"Do Not Travel To #Japan due to #COVID19"
warning, issued by #US State Department.
travel.state.gov/content/travel… Image
Also, there was this:
#Scotland announced travel restrictions for selected #B1617 hotspots in #UK.

(came into force yesterday, was announced 4 days ago - I somehow missed it out...)
gov.scot/news/levels-an… Image
Also 4 days ago,
#UK´s official #COVID19 website suddenly added a travel ´advisory´ for all #B1617 hotspots in UK.

(I missed out on that one as well,
but I wasn´t the only one...)
gov.uk/guidance/covid… Image
Bolton found out about #UK´s new travel advisory ~yesterday.

"The new guidelines are thought to have taken everyone by surprise, including public health directors."

🤷
theboltonnews.co.uk/news/19325835.… Image
For Bolton,
the rise in #COVID19 / #B1617 cases (detected) seems to have started ~3 weeks ago, particularly in school age kids...
(and then spread into the parents´ generation)
🙄
Meanwhile,
Victoria (#Australia) is chasing missing links in one #COVID19 outbreak.

They did some sequencing and found a nasty surprise.
(still a bit of guessing what exactly this means...)
🤔
Victoria´s current #COVID19 outbreak shares the same genome sequence as a case 2 weeks ago.

Back than, one person suddenly tested ´positive´ at home, AFTER having completed hotel quarantine.
It was a returnee from India.

They thought it was under control
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-1…
Victoria´s trace & test efforts ran in the wrong direction, ~2 weeks ago.

There´s no link established between the current outbreak and the late tests for customers at one supermarket, yet. But there are worries...
9news.com.au/national/melbo…
Victoria (#Australia) update:
now 9 cases
one of them ´may have been infectious for 10 days´
it seems to be #B1617
A reminder from #Victoria´s Chief Health Officer
(also indicating it is actually #B1617.2, spreading in Victoria, now)
Meanwhile,
British Columbia (#Canada) is promoting ´good news´:

"Variant #B1617 is not taking over in B.C., latest data shows"😐

(yet, it´s share has just doubled from 1% to 2%, whithin one week...)😖
vancouversun.com/news/local-new…
For British Columbia (#Canada),
the line of #B1617 share is quite wobbly ~1-2%.

(there may be a rise, maybe not...
This data stems from May 8. The majority may still be imported cases (flight ban came into force April 22, I guess)).
bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Si… Image
In #UK,
there´s no question if #B1617.2 is taking over.
#UK advise suggests a family from a UK #B1617 hotspot is free to fly to Portugal...

(🤔I think there was something similar in December:
~"It´s okay when they go abroad, because they´ll carry the virus WITH them and less likely that they´ll BRING it in)
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
#Austria has now ramped up it´s measures for/against visitors from #UK:
Test & Quarantine (effective immediately)
Flight ban (in a week)
sozialministerium.at/Informationen-… Image
Now I found it😓
it was the Netherlands (Oct28), who said "We didn´t impose travel restrictions because the #COVID19 situation in any country was better than in ours - so people are exporting the virus from here rather than bring it from elsewhere..."
debatgemist.tweedekamer.nl/debatten/updat… Image
It just turned out, that 2 days ago,

One of 23.415 visitors to a football match in Melbourne was one of the (possibly #B1617) outbreak´s ´positive´ cases.

(stadium only filled to 25% capacity, open air, no masks...)
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-2…
~1 month ago,
some ´trial´ parties happened in #UK.

Today, results were published:
´only´ 11 out of 11.000 visitors became infected.
(mostly #B117 around, at this time. Not much #B1617, yet. But also: those infections may have happened outside the events)
itv.com/news/granada/2…
#Vietnam is doing round-the-clock tracing.
This morning, the 6 am numbers looked quite ´good´ (57 new #COVID19 cases over night - still high for VN).

But 8 pm numbers broke all records: 444 new (domestic) cases.
They even had to change the scale...😯
ehealth.gov.vn/?action=News&n… ImageImage
So,
the current outbreak in Victoria (#Australia) is of the variant

"#B1617, sublineage one"

There's some relief, as #B1617.1 is not the very bad version.
But the outbreak's case numbers keep climbing, anyway...
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-2… Image
Victoria's #B1617.1 outbreak counted 6 new cases over nicht.
All work at the same finance company...

(air conditioned for sure)

The cluster now counts 15 cases.
All are linked. Except the missing link(s) to the index case.
Hold your breath...

South Australia issued a report on how the index case of Victoria´s current #B1617.1 outbreak is believed to have been infected:

He had opened his room door
in a quarantine hotel
18 seconds after his infected neighbor had closed his.
sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connec… Image
There´s this appartment block in Velbert (#Germany), where #B1617 spread via the elevator.
~26 infected in the building

Now contact tracing found:
also 19 outside this building
and even a secondary contact (contact of contact family in another town)...
kreis-mettmann-corona.de/Kurzmen%C3%BC/… Image
#Switzerland´s #COVID19 Science Task Force is very reserved, in their recent report.

You´d have to read between the lines to find a warning:
"Indicators do not give a detailed view on specific variants - they show an overall trend"
This trend is falling.
Meanwhile #Switzerland´s government is cheering:

~"The trend looks great - therefore the next opening step (in 5 days) will be larger than planned."

(including indoor openings (no tests required). Tests will stay for education, large events, travel)
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
#Switzerland:

Q: ´Only 2/3 of risk groups have been vaccinated. Do you believe this covers all who wanted the vaccine???´
A: ´Yes. I think those who aren´t vaccinated by now don´t want to.´

Q: ´What about the children?´
A: ´Children are no risk group´
🤷
´As soon as vaccines are available for kids, they´ll be integrated in our plan.´

Q: ´will there be restrictions again, later in the year?´
A: ´No. We´ll all finally have contact with the virus and have some health effects. But Vaccinated´ll be protected."
Switzerland:
"We´ll all finally have contact with the virus and have some health effects.
Those who are vaccinated may develop antibodies.
Those with no vaccination will also react, for example by becoming ill..."

Scotland:
Seems #B1617.2 won´t wait until everyone was declared to be ´eligible´ for protection...
At the moment, case numbers in #Germany literally come crashing down.

Also all the variants´ shares.

🧐Except #B1617. That share is increasing from 1.9% to 2.2%
BUT: it´s only 40 cases (in week 19 - week 18 had 82 cases.)
Can we manage this? Come on...
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
🙄But #Germany´s case numbers are currently distortedly low (due to the influence of holidays).

And then also:
this is what ONE single case of #B1617.1 is causing in & around #Melbourne (speaking about the website where all exposure sites are listed...:)
Weak points in quarantine hotels simply don´t exist in #Germany.

There are no quarantine hotels.
Travelers are asked to spend quarantine at home.
And if one really does, there´s a special mention on the district´s website.

(Phew, #B1617 outbreak avoided)
rems-murr-kreis.de/jugend-gesundh… Image
"Quarantine breaches are causing #B1617 to spread in 2 cities" (Dorsten, Gladbeck)

While Melbourne gets realtime updates about exposure sites, information like this are paywalled exclusive articles in #Germany...

🤷
dorstenerzeitung.de/dorsten/corona… Image
et voilà...🤷
ooops.

One tiny town (2.000 inhabitants) in southern #Germany has found 14 connected #COVID19 cases, this weekend.

2 of them are now confirmed to carry a ´Brazil´ variant...

~We got it under control. And there´s still the lockdown option~
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
#Lockdown, as
Victoria´s #B1617.1 outbreak ´has now reached 26 cases, with 11 new cases recorded overnight.

One of the cases is now in intensive care in hospital and on a ventilator.

10.000 primary and secondary contacts have been linked to the cases.´
#VIC
#B1617.1

"The time between catching the virus and passing it on is tighter than ever.

For some of those cases ... between the onset of symptoms in the first and secondary case is averaging just over 1 day.🧐

(usual transmission is ~5-6 days.)”
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
#Victoria Lockdown:
(This all started with 2 guests in hotel quarantine swiftly opening their doors, 18 seconds apart.)

"If it all depends on coordinated opening doors, by accident, you're stuffed"

(🤔hey, what about other countries´ home quarantine?😣)
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-2…
Meanwhile,
passengers who had been to Melbourne are pulled from a transcontinental train, in the desert at the outskirts of nowhere...

(well,
they have busses transferring them to test/quarantine)
In recent days,
#Norway´s soon-to-be school graduates
("Russ", not russians(!))
persued their traditional school-end parties...

leading to massive infection waves, stressed contact tracing and closed schools.

(those parties take place before final exams)
kristiansand.kommune.no/tema/korona/ko… Image
As a lot of schools in #Norway had to close,
and many students and teachers are quarantined,
there was no way.

Final exams are cancelled.

In the entire country.
Students will get a diploma. But it will be marked (´No exam´).

🙄Life-long #COVID19 effects
udir.no/kvalitet-og-ko… Image
People in Newfoundland (#Canada) were caught off guard by a #cluster that developed despite high vaccination rates...
(over 54 per cent of the eligible population have had their first dose)

"We're almost at the end game, and now we have this going on."😕
cbc.ca/news/canada/ne…
Meanwhile, it was confirmed:

the outbreak in remote #Newfoundland is #B1617.2

It´s a ´young cluster´, the average age of infected is 36 years.
Some of the infected had already had their first vaccine dose.
Not many cases among the 60+ (fully vaccinated).
cbc.ca/news/canada/ne…
This looks like
#Cambodia has some acceptance issues with test & tracing among factory workers...
😳
(some say hundreds / thousands fled their workplace when they heard that COVID19 test were to be taken)
🤷
vodenglish.news/bicycle-factor…
🇨🇭
#Switzerland is now convinced that travellers from #UK may pose a risk of importing #B1617.2

Mandatory quarantine for them🇬🇧,
with immediate effect...
Mr Hancock told a Downing Street briefing that

"#UK government had always expected cases to rise as restrictions were eased."

🙄Oh, cases of #B1617.2 have risen by 3,535 to 6,959 (~doubled)
since last week.
bbc.com/news/uk-572752…
"Of the 49 people in hospital in Bolton,
only 5 had two doses of the #vaccine,
indicating the effectiveness of the vaccine."

🤔So, if people still end up in hospital, despite being fully vaccinated, can we get *realistic* with reopening, now?
itv.com/news/2021-05-2…
#COVID19 in restaurants on Germany´s in-crowd island #Sylt:

🥴: they did test their staff, so they found out 7 were ´positive´.

😖: 1.000+ contacts

🙄: contacts are from all over Germany. (They won´t count as Sylt cases, in case they become positive).
swp.de/panorama/coron… Image
During a 2 week trial phase (early May) #Sylt region had found 240 ´positive´ tourists by (antigen) rapid test.

Only 3 counted as (PCR-confirmed) Sylt-region cases - those who couldn´t leave.

15 were PCR ´negative´.
No results are known for the other 222
sylt1.tv/2021/05/17/nur… Image
Experts in #Finland say that the spread of #B1617 in their country can be stopped with measures already in place.

An upgrade to FFP3 masks (instead of surgical masks) in healthcare was planned anyway. And vaccinations are on a good path.
That´s it.
yle.fi/uutiset/osasto…
Victoria (#Australia) now counts
- 30 cases in their #B1617.1 cluster (4 more)
- 15.000+ contacts
- 1.200+ exposure sites

and they try to keep track of it
(Military support has also been requested).
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-2… Image
Velbert (#Germany) has
- one appartment block
- ~30 #B1617.2 infected residents
- local authorities are informed quarantined residents ventured out for shopping, walking the dog,...
- health authority: "we´re not aware"
- no risk of spreading is seen
🤷
www1.wdr.de/fernsehen/loka…
So,
#France will only demand a SEVEN day quarantine from #UK travellers. (quite short for a Variant of Concern. Germany demands full 14 days)

And they will not even check ´systematically´, if the quarantine is adhered to.

Sounds like a lot of Liberté...
uk.ambafrance.org/France-tighten… Image
#Norway´s FHI announces:

of the 782393 persons who are fully vaccinated by now,
382 have been #COVID19 infected afterwards.
That´s ~0.05%

A good protection,
but also a reminder it´s not 100% perfect.
("Symptoms were milder, shorter than in unvaccinated")
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/s… Image
Oh well -
spreading from a bar in #Scotland.
🙄
Also: Dundee has seen its case rate rise from 14 cases per 100.000 people a week ago to 62.3 cases.
"We expected a small increase in case numbers due to the easing of restrictions, but we now have #B1617.2"
bbc.com/news/uk-scotla…
😕
4.182

I´d like to imagine it´s because #UK society isn´t used to their new freedoms, yet. So it´s all a bit wobbly - like the first ride on a bike whithout training wheels...

(uh - my ride ended spectacularly, with a crash into a bollard😖)
news.sky.com/story/uk-repor…
Oh,
s**T !
😧

1.) Freiburg region (Germany) may open tomorrow (indoor events, dining, etc...)

2.) #B1617 has arrived in Freiburg region
breisgau-hochschwarzwald.de/pb/Breisgau-Ho… Image
It started, already.😳

12 *confirmed* cases of #B1617.2
Multiple families, infected in short time.
30+ connected cases (not all sequenced, yet.)
Brought into Freiburg region from another part of south #Germany,
it has already spread to other districts.
⚠️
breisgau-hochschwarzwald.de/pb/Breisgau-Ho… Image
My guess:
roughly and optimistically,
#Germany would need another ~4 months to achieve herd immunity by vaccination.

(Biontech would need 75% of entire population fully vaccinated to let #B1617.2 run dry)

🤔But we behave like it´s over 🤷I must be wrong.
impfdashboard.de Image
Behave like it´s over...
Just visited an old friend. He reopened his restaurant, just for a farewell month (he´ll retire, already a year late).

One lady turned up and asked if she´d really have to present a ´negative´ test.
"Yes, Madam."

She turned around and left.
🙄
Maybe the lady went straight to one of the many rapid-test-stations in the city.
They are free and saw quite some queues, today.

But if #Germany´s trade association HDE should have its say, this testing would be a thing of the past...
🚮
handelsblatt.com/dpa/wirtschaft… Image
You´d better keep testing...

#Norway has quarantine hotels.
And they just announced they found out that #B1617.2 had broken out of one (via personnel) ~early May.

It is now found in cases all over Oslo region.
"We do not yet know how big the outbreak is"
nrk.no/norge/fhi-rapp… Image
#Norway´s report mentions another outbreak in bus-travellers from Sweden (they don´t know how far this has spread, yet)

And:
out of 30 #B1617.2 cases,
3 had their 1st vaccine dose (a while before)
2 were fully vaccinated but got infected a few days later.
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
A lab in #Vietnam has found samples of #B1617.2 with S-gene mutation like #B117...

Not much is known about this combination, yet.
But they´re pretty sure it wasn´t ´born´ there.
ncov.moh.gov.vn/en/web/guest/-…
(autotranslated:) Image
Before naming discussion for the hybrid variant #B117 x #B1617.2 begins,
may I suggested we call it
"Variant from Hell"?

described as
~airborne-ish
~1-2 days ´infection cycle´
~´signs of aggravating the disease´
It spreads quickly in factories in #Vietnam
vnexpress.net/vi-sao-dich-o-… Image
Hey,

#Germany´s (official) 7-day incidence is nearing 35.

(35 would be the magical limit when contact tracing suddenly would start to be effective again...)
🙂
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
What would happen (in Baden-Württemberg), if incidence rose back above 35?
Nothing (except contact tracing officially unable to cope).

3 days above 50 would turn back easements.
Next step then after *another 14 days* of rising incidence...
😐
baden-wuerttemberg.de/fileadmin/reda… Image
In the history book of pandemics:

First case of #B117 in #Germany was found ~December 24.
2 months later, when #B117´s share was ~20%,
overall cases started to rise.

Today:
case numbers are lower, so a #B1617.2 effect would become visible much earlier.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Yes, we could react very early this time
if we wanted to.

If we hadn´t defined that
"everything below 50 shall be regarded as falling incidence"
(even if in fact it was rising again).

It makes sense against yo-yo lockdowns.
But not against new variants.
baden-wuerttemberg.de/fileadmin/reda… Image
A little history of #B1617 in Baden-Württemberg (#Germany)

30.05.: 92 cases so far (+45 more than a week before)
23.05.: 47 (+11)
16.05.: 33 (+14)
09.05.: 19 (+11)
02.05.: 8 (+8)
25.04.: -

We maybe won´t notice anything wrong for another 2-4 weeks...
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/de/fachinf…
It can be done.

After an outbreak with 141 cases of #B1617 in the last 14 days,
#Finland´s Central Ostrobothnia region saw

Zero new cases, today

Recently, ~all contacts had already been tracked down, so that new infections only happened in quarantine...
Image
Germany´s reopening comes with rules,
like testing for holiday guests every 2-3 days.

One region was happy to expect ~20.000 guests, next weekend.
Then they found out, their only test centre can only manage 200 tests/day

(one idea is to change rules now)
ndr.de/nachrichten/me… Image
While #Vietnam is vigorously trying to contain serious outbreaks,
#Germany is in lazy holiday mood and thinks everything is fine - except for those #COVID19-rules...
🤷
(~daily new cases / 100.000 inhabitants.
Yes, Vietnam is in this graph - look closely)
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
A current heat spell is causing many of #Vietnam´s testing crews to collapse under the protective clothing.

They therefore came up with a DIY hands-free solution for drinking while working, worn underneath the PPE
(yes, featuring infusion hoses as straws)
ncov.moh.gov.vn/web/guest/-/68… ImageImageImage
To put into perspective how "big of a problem" #B1617 currently is, in Baden-Württemberg:

The red curve shows #B117.
The black is #B1617. Yes, it is there. But it´ll probably take 2-4 more weeks to really become visible.

You can zoom in on this website:
rainer-gerhards.de/corona-mutatio… Image
Meanwhile,
Due to "widespread falling case numbers" pressure is becoming huge to end all "test for shopping" rules, in #Germany.

"why do we need tests for shops, while workplaces never needed one?"

=> wait for other venues to hop on that train...
🙄
tagesspiegel.de/wissen/coronav…
Guangzhou (#China) found one new case,
then realized it was spreading...

"As of Saturday, more than 2.25 million residents of the city have had samples collected for nucleic acid tests,"
"it has the characteristic of rapid spread"

They think it´s #B1617.
#UK:

"Of course the numbers of cases are relatively low at the moment -
all waves start with low numbers that grumble in the background
and then become explosive..."

"There may be a false sense of security for some time, and that's our concern"
🌊
Authorities in #Norway occasionally indicate how their test & trace teams cope with an outbreak situation.
Usually it´s "we have sufficient ressources".

But today, #Trondheim suddenly described a dramatically different situation.

They think it´s #B1617.
nrk.no/trondelag/sten… Image
The vaccination status of #Trondheim🇳🇴

Seems like this wasn´t enough to prevent a massive outbreak of #B1617.

(Note: they seem to have stopped 1st doses completely, 2 weeks ago
and instead shifted to fully vaccinate those who already had a first shot)
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
Herd immunity for Norway by vaccination in
😧~2023...
China´s #B1617 outbreak has now spread from Guangzhou to the neighboring city Foshan.

Transmission seems to have happened when a lady from Guangzhou visited and participated in dancing in a public square...
(you know - the typical open air🌬️ dances...)
😯
sohu.com/a/469594459_46… Image
Meanwhile in northern #Germany:

No masks required inside bars, clubs, discos anymore.
(half capacity + a negative test required)

(funny headline: "Es geht wieder los!" (it starts again...🙄)
ndr.de/nachrichten/ni… Image
After 6 months,
#Germany is now downgrading its #COVID19 transmission risk to "high".

(not whithout adding that "~we can see in other countries what happens if another relevant #Variant gets established...")
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Meanwhile Victoria (#Australia) is
"seeing transmission in circumstances we´ve never seen before"
(by very short contacts)

And it´s ´only´ #B1617.1
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0… Image
Some more light on #Victoria´s "fleeting transmission".

The keywords may be:
"in a small" (shop, room, space,...)

Seems like their #B1617.1 (#Kappa) variant´s #aerosol is pretty effective in infecting others...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0… Image
With #B1617.1/#Kappa´s high transmissibility via #aerosols,
it totally makes sense to add public toilets to the list of exposure sites.

(screenshot from yesterday. Today´s number of exposure sites stands at 364...)
coronavirus.vic.gov.au/exposure-sites Image
So,
🤔this brings up a very practical issue:

if a non-tested guest
in a beer garden in #Germany
would unexpectedly feel the urge to go to the toilet...

would he be advised to look out for the next tree?
🙄
ardaudiothek.de/interviews/deh… Image
3 Days ago, a suspected #B1617 infection was discovered in one student in Oslo (#Norway)...

Then yesterday,
6 students on a party bus full of students were tested ´positive´...

A warning was announced: "there may be a larger outbreak ahead"
nab.no/nyheter/tre-sk…
There you go:
sudden spike in infections,
in #Oslo´s Nordre Aker district.
Age group 10-19 years.

(The infected students on the party bus were from 3 schools, mostly from this district...)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/742… Image
Our usually reserved medical officer lost her cool today, when she heard this interview, discussing

"professional help for those who still cannot accept that normality is back"

😳
(according to her you are okay if you feel like
this is not ´normal´, yet)
ardaudiothek.de/im-gespraech/z…
If you live around Karlsruhe (#Germany),
you may already stop pretending things are back to normal and #COVID19 is gone...

⚠️Multiple cases of #B1617.2/#Delta
One of them a medical director,
asymptomatic but "highly infectious"...😧
ka-news.de/region/karlsru… Image
Also worrying about #Karlsruhe:

until today, the notion was "incidences are tumbling downwards - let´s all enjoy life again!"

But despite low incidence (~24),
health authorities announced they couldn´t complete tracing for ~25% of #COVID19 cases.
🙄
ka-news.de/region/karlsru… Image
Today´s #B1617.2/#Delta variant report from Germany´s RKI also features a suspiciously dark indicator for the area around #Karlsruhe.

~8-16 cases in the past 4 weeks.
(a week ago, that was 1-2 cases for all #B1617 sublineages, there...)
🤔
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Soite (#Finland),
had
~40% of population (16+) vaccinated with one dose, when their #B1617.2/#Delta outbreak started, a month ago.

Contact tracing could only be completed for
70-80% of the cases.

They still managed to bring the outbreak down.
korona.soite.fi/en/no-new-case… Image
#Karlsruhe (City/district)
-has ~40-45% vaccinated, today.
-can complete contact tracing for ~75% of cases.

~the same as Finland´s Soite region, when their #B1617.2/#Delta outbreak started. And that one seems to be under control, now...
…zialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/fileadmin/reda… Image
#Vietnam is still fighting hard,
to stop #B1617 from spreading.

And they are also fighting hard for every life.
Everyone can read how it is going. (Not very good for some of them, even young ones). 😔
ncov.moh.gov.vn/web/guest/-/68… Image
Parts of China´s #Guangzhou region have been upgraded to ´high risk´, due to the current #B1617 outbreak.

Stay-home orders, locked appartment blocks, food delivery by authorities,...

all the 2020 stuff, again.
sz.gov.cn/en_szgov/news/… Image
Characteristics of the #B1617 outbreak in #Guangdong:
"-high viral load
-strong ability to spread
-very short incubation period
-PCR tests may show ´negative´ despite infection"

"One vaccination dose already prevents severe effects"
(Beijing Youth Daily)
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mDm4KHG7lnu-… Image
So,
we may now officially call #Vietnam´s outbreak a #B1617.2/#Delta outbreak.
(although it really has an additional mutation).
asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks…
Portugal is very much surprised by a sudden #UK move
to take remove #Portugal from the UK´s ´green list´ for travel...
#UK / #Portugal
>>
Asked for a response to the decision, a tourism industry source said:
“Do you want four-letter words or what?”
<<

(seems Portugal wasn´t the only ones to be surprised...)
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
Why was #Portugal removed from #UK´s quarantine free travel list?:

“the positivity rate has nearly doubled
and there’s a sort of #Nepal mutation which has been detected there..."
🤔
newschainonline.com/news/chaos-ove…
#WHO, this morning:
"there is no such thing as a Nepal variant"

🤷
🤦 The "Nepal variant".
It´s not a new variant - it´s a mutation...
Image
#Portugal is still a bit surprised,
as the "Nepal mutation" was already known for a while.
And Portugal´s number of 12 cases had not increased, at least for a week...
publico.pt/2021/06/03/soc…
Meanwhile, in #UK:
(new report)
+5472 cases of #B1617.2/#Delta in one week.

~maybe increased risk of hospitalisation for Delta cases (compared to Alpha)🤔(wait - who is the most infected group???...)
gov.uk/government/new… Image
Due to #UK´s vaccination regime,
it´s now mostly the younger ones who get infected by #B1617.2/#Delta.

If they also show higher risk of hospitalisation...
just think about what this variant might cause in countries with less vaccinated older population😧
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
Baden-Württemberg has issued another elaborated update to the #COVID19 rules...

Now,
indoor business-meetings with up to 10 participants may be allowed,
"even if they are not really necessary".
🤔
Yeah, let´s all return to unnecessary meetings again.🙄
baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/akt… Image
Dresden, #Germany:
an entire student dormitory is under quarantine order.

"After his return from India, one young man became seriously ill with #COVID19.
No underlying conditions,
but his health status deteriorated very fast,
leading to his death"
#Delta?
Besides having to deal with the heavy outbreak of B1617.1/Kappa, Australia´s #Victoria
has now discovered a new outbreak.

This time it´s #B1617.2/#Delta.

And so far there´s no known source...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0…
#Victoria´s #B1617.2/#Delta outbreak has already
infected a second family.

And they think transmission must have happened between their kids at #school...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0… Image
#Bavaria will stop demanding tests for entry,
as long as incidence is below 50.

"As long as no new variant becomes dominant
(and #Delta is not widespread in #Germany at the moment),...
we should not deny our people normality."
#Bavaria has a 7 day incidence of 29.0, today.
This is what England had 8 days ago.

#England´s incidence has been rising, since.
But not above 50.
Although #B1617.2/#Delta is already the new dominant variant, there...
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases Image
In a population with adults
75% vaccinated (1st dose),
50% fully vaccinated,

#B1617.2/#Delta
is an issue.
Meanwhile,
more details on the quarantined student dorm (200 residents) in Dresden, #Germany.

May 09: The now deceased student had returned from India
(spent 14 day quarantine)
May 25:⚠️was hospitalised with #COVID19 symptoms
June 01: lost his fight
radiodresden.de/beitrag/komple… Image
There are conflicting news:

if this is true,
the infected student in #Dresden arrived eralier and had already ENDED his quarantine on May 09.
(~2 weeks before he was hospitalised for #COVID19).
💢
And he shared an apartment with 5 others...
mdr.de/nachrichten/sa… Image
Another update from #Dresden, where 170 quarantined residents of a student dorm had been tested, today:

It´s possible the deceased student was infected in #Germany, not India.
One #B1617.2/#Delta case had been found (earlier), with connections to him.
dresden.de/de/rathaus/akt… Image
Cheers, #UK:

A small number of staff were serving while they had symptoms,
"hundreds" are likely to have visited over the bank holiday weekend,
there are concerns that some customers might not be traced.

Urge to test, but only if one feels symptoms...
🤦
Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland:
#Delta?
"This virus we know can often by asymptomatic so we want to detect asymptomatic cases as soon as possible and break the transmission chain."

Testing is open to everyone in these areas over the age of five years old.
bbc.com/news/uk-northe…
Germany´s city of Hagen always had a hard stand against #COVID19.

Their website is now very open about what they do and how the situation currently is...

Last week, they couldn´t find a source for 31.8% of cases.
3.4%(!) of last month´s cases were #B1617
hagen.de/web/de/hagen_d… ImageImage
What Hagen´s experience also shows:

providing/demanding free antigen rapid tests does actually help to identify a good portion of cases.
Supposedly mostly the ones who never thought they´d carry an infection

This found 19.6% of all infections, last week.
hagen.de/web/media/imag… Image
Citizens of Hagen (#Germany) made use of 34.322 free antigen rapid tests, last week.

34.280 came back ´negative´.
9 were false ´positive´
30 were real positive cases (that´s ~0.1%)

(at 18€ per test, this week there came at ~600.000€ cost for taxpayers)
hagen.de/web/media/imag… Image
Denmark´s island of Bornholm had a huge campaign, testing their entire population (voluntarily).
Yes, they had some outbreak of some (then unknown) variant - but foremost they wanted to be good hosts for the massive influx of "Folkemødet" visitors, soon...
brk.dk/Nyheder/Sider/… Image
During Bornholm´s testing campaign, #Denmark´s SSI came up with sequencing results:
the variant on this island had in fact come from far away - it´s #B1621, (a #VOI) first detected in Colombia, January 2021.

20 cases on Bornholm,
but ´isolated´.
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0…
Bolton (#UK):

“it does look as though the vaccines have broken the chain
between catching #COVID19 and potentially being
very, very seriously ill and potentially dying."
manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-m…
Addendum by the person who was cited saying that vaccines have broken the chain between catching #COVID19 and... potentially dying".

"...Full version is, there´s:
Update from #Dresden (Germany),
where the case of a deceased student (possibly #B1617 infected) caused a student dorm to get isolated:

PCR tests of ~170 residents now show there are
7 more cases in the building.
mdr.de/nachrichten/sa…
#Dresden:
As it is with student dorms, most residents have no family in the city.
As it is with #quarantine, residents must not leave the building.

So, how will they get food?
Other students try to organize it.
In multiple languages.
stura.tu-dresden.de/aktuelles/2106… Image
The quarantined student dorm in #Dresden is a 14 floor highrise building,
with shared apartments (up to 5 inhabitants).

Not the best place to try to contain a #B1617.2/#Delta outbreak...
(as we know from #Australia...)
#Delta kids.

Now, a teacher at a primary #school in Victoria (#Australia) has been found to be ´positive´.

It´s the school where transmission is believed to have happened from one #B1617.2 infected family´s kid to another...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0… Image
I somehow missed out on that story.

(Note: half of it isn´t true, anyway...)
🙄
#UK:
Mr. Gove does not need to self-isolate for 10 days.
He will take an (antigen) rapid self-test for 7 days, instead.

It´s "a pilot scheme to measure testing effectiveness...
As long as they test negative they will be able to leave their home..."

🤷🤦
bbc.com/news/business-… Image
"That was the pandemic, then..."

(a tweet from #Norway´s FHI Chief Medical Officer, this morning.

He later explained that this only would be true if vaccinations went on and everybody would strictly stick to the rules...

but no-one listened anymore)
🤦
The "pandemic is over" tweet from #Norway´s CMO prompted harsh replies.

Among them the mayor of #Trondheim:
They are fighting a massive #B1617.2 outbreak,
and one major issue was ´people behaving like it was already over...´
nrk.no/norge/erna-sol… Image
Meanwhile,
#Norway´s FHI has posted an official statement

"~ The pandemic is not over yet.
Even if indicators look good,
infection control measures and high support for vaccination are still important..."
A look into why #Trondheim is put off by claims of "the pandemic being over":

besides large clusters around a church and a night club (🤔no..., these are separate outbreaks)

a large portion of infected are students.
And they´ll all travel home, soon...
vg.no/nyheter/innenr… Image
#Trondheim has experienced a large wave of infections, starting after May 17 (national holiday and party day in #Norway).

A week ago, the university was closed, in order to take control of the spread again...
innsida.ntnu.no/start#/feed/1b… Image
#Trondheim University´s statistics also shows #COVID19 infections among their students amassed after May17.

Even broken down into faculties.
Don´t jump to conclusions that SU has the wildest parties - it could also be that they all worked hard in class!😏
ntnu.no/korona/smitteu… Image
🤨
#Dresden has now "partly ended" the quarantine order for the highrise student dorm with several suspected #B1617.2 cases.

Confirmed cases door-to-door with ´negative´ tested residents who go on with daily life...

🙄it always works like that in Germany
dresden.de/de/rathaus/akt… Image
Meanwhile,
#Vietnam has partly evacuated one #COVID19 hotspot town.

Those 7.000 inhabitants / factory workers who tested 3-5 times ´negative´ were transported to a centralized facility, where they will stay for the next 3 weeks.
ncov.moh.gov.vn/vi/web/guest/-…
Something is spreading in South-west China:
the testing.

Reasons remain obscure for now...
Seems I´m late to the game,
since it was already last year, that this tiny company in #France had developped clips for surgical masks
to prevent glasses from fogging...
ecospace.fr/produit/misty-…
#Dresden, Germany:

+6 new #COVID19 cases, yesterday

"Everything is fine. Green light. Looks promising for more openings..."
experience.arcgis.com/experience/d23… Image
#Guangzhou, China:

+6 new #COVID19 cases, yesterday

all areas in a 6km radius around their home are closed off.
The entire city will be PCR tested, multiple times.
Citizens are ´encouraged not to leave the city´.

Different countries,
different habits🤷
sz.gov.cn/en_szgov/news/… Image
🤔Is it fair to say:
concerning outbreaks, China seems to be a bit more transparent than Germany...?
In Kitzingen (#Bavaria),
*another* company reports #COVID19 infections.

Authorities think transmission happened by private contacts with an earlier outbreak (confirmed #B1617.2/#Delta), last week.

But incidence still looks good,
that´s what counts
🤷
mainpost.de/regional/kitzi… Image
Kitzingen (Bavaria):
"As the (possibly #B1617.2/Delta) infections happened in private life,
the names of the affected companies will not be made public."

(which of course is legitimate - but there´s also no list of any *public* exposure sites. As always)
kitzingen.de/buergerservice… Image
🤨Another (likely) workplace related #B1617.2/#Delta infection.
But this time in #Hamburg (northern Germany)...

No details known, no details announced, no Info about any #Delta outbreak in Hamburg before 🤷
There are #Variant case numbers published for #Hamburg.
But the latest report (2021-06-02) lists the situation of ~1 month ago.
~3 cases of #B1617 in Hamburg, back then.

(That was about the time when UK started to wonder what was going on in Bolton...)
hpi-hamburg.de/fileadmin/medi… Image
#VIC, Australia

Oh... D´Oh.

"The person went to have a COVID test and then presented at the vaccination centre, but was told to leave and isolate."
coronavirus.vic.gov.au/exposure-sites Image
Genome sequences pinpointed the source of #Victoria´s current #B1617.2/#Delta outbreak to a returnee from Sri Lanka, who arrived on May 8 by plane.
-tested ´positive´ upon arrival
-but infected no-one on that flight🤔
-(only 24 were on that plane)
9news.com.au/national/melbo…
Victoria´s #B1617.2/#Delta cluster popped up ~a week ago.
It´s still growing.

But since all new cases appear in people who are already quarantined,
it is likely the lockdown will end soon.

(Although another kid at school was found ´positive´).
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0… Image
All the while in #Germany...

15 cases of #B1617 in Wiesbaden.
(paywalled, can´t share it)
🤷
wiesbadener-kurier.de/lokales/wiesba… Image
Publicly available info:
5 days ago, there had been 11 cases of #B1617.x in #Wiesbaden.
Connected to a school and kindergarten.

"Authorities preferred not to give additional information on the variant´s share in all samples"

🙄
fr.de/rhein-main/wie… Image
As of 4 days ago,
6 cases of #B1617.2/#Delta had been detected in Mainz area (next to Wiesbaden).
Sources of infection: unknown🤷

(But: as Mainz is located in a different state, there are info on the variant´s spread available... 🧐next tweet)
merkurist.de/mainz/gesundhe…
The statewide list of Variant cases (for Rhineland-Palatinate) shows:
there are still only a few cases of #B1617.2/#Delta at the moment.

But were they pop up,
they have quite a substantial share
(7-50%).

Could we stamp this out, please?! Now?!😠
lua.rlp.de/fileadmin/lua/… (.docx) Image
(hidden in regional news)
This sounds quite different from the usual "the overall share of #B1617 remains at low levels for the time being"...

It´s the local outbreaks, where it will be seen first.
And there seems to be quite a lot of them.
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe… Image
This #COVID19-teststation is one of thousands in Germany. It has a daily capacity of 88 tests.
A test takes 4 minutes, it´s free and you get your result per email or app.

A few weeks ago, you´d have to book 2 weeks in advance.
Now they´ve got no clients.
"Tests aren´t necessary" Image
A bit like Bolton (UK):
Some cities in #Germany tried to boost vaccinations (especially in "at risk" population).

But unlike Bolton, there´s no urgency - no notable rise in cases. Not much interest.
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe… Image
Yes,
they even tried the legendary
"We got vaccines a plenty. Just come and we´ll get you vaccinated" tweet.
And they had the fire service running up and down the streets making PA announcements, urging everyone to come...

Only a small queue formed.
#Hagen, also a bit like Bolton
(not necessarily the wealthiest city in Germany).

After a steep decline, their #COVID19 case numbers now suddenly run flat. Exactly 100 new cases, the last week.
🤔

They came up with a possible explanation, today...
hagen.de/web/media/imag… Image
#Hagen, Germany:
16 confirmed cases
+18 suspected cases of #B1617.2/#Delta,
concentrated in 4 family-clusters.

Also: some (not further specified) outbreaks at schools.
hagen.de/web/de/hagen_d… Image
Oh...
Baden-Württemberg (#Germany)

number of
confirmed #B1617.2/#Delta cases so far: 77🟨
(was 58, yesterday)
suspected: 68🟦
(was 51, yesterday)

(but their calculations tend to be messy, recently🙄)
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/fileadmin/LGA/… Image
Baden-Württemberg, #Heidenheim district.
They wondered why their incidence wouldn´t go down.
(they had total 72 cases the last week)

Now they found:
57 cases are #B1617.2/#Delta
(42 confirmed, 15 suspected)

It was "swiftly brought under control"
okayyy🙄
schwaebische-post.de/ostalb/ostalbk… Image
#Melbourne´s lockdown will be changed into restrictions.
1 case over night, but that one was already quarantined, like all others, recently...

The hunt for the missing link (how did #B1617.2/#Delta get out of hotel quarantine?) is still going on.
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
"Contact tracing requires absolute precision."

#Victoria´s focus is trying to
*get ahead of the outbreak*.

The list of exposure sites is now down to 162 (was 350+, a week ago)...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0… Image
Kitzingen´s (#Germany) health authorities have a slightly different focus:
hunting down statistic errors.

✅They also did a mass test in a company where a #B1617.2/#Delta outbreak had been registered: all negative (30 missing).

Exposure sites? No list.🤷
kitzingen.de/buergerservice… Image
Football nation #Germany:
Bavaria recently changed their restrictions, so that Munich could have 14.000 visitors at their "Euro 2020" match.
Now Germany will lift quarantine rules (for ´accredited´ persons, regardless if they come from high-risk areas).
🤷
bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/pre… Image
Funny that Germany´s Interior Minister mentioned #Tokyo.

They promised that the Olympic Games would take place in a safe manner.

Anyone going there should be aware that "safe" often means: confine the risk. And that "risk" is everything from outside.
france24.com/en/live-news/2…
I discussed it with friends before:
"Isolating" the games seemed like the only way out.

And it´s happening.
The Olympics will take place.
But they will be confined like a biohazard.
And everyone working there will be "untouchable", 穢多.
😔
nytimes.com/2021/06/04/wor…
Aaaargh...

A couple fled the Melbourne Lockdown on June 01.
They rode ~1.800 km in their car, arrived in Qeensland after 4 days and 11 stops.

Now, 8 days later, one of them tested ´positive´,
causing a trail of "GET TESTED !" appeals across #Australia...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0…
Interestingly,
after 4-5 days on a trip together in one car,
only one of the 2 tested ´positive´, so far.

May be good news for all the motels, shops, cafés, and a cinema, where they had stopped on their way from Melbourne to Queensland...
#Ireland is discussing if rapid (antigen) tests should also be accepted.

One medical expert likened the debate to the discussion around "seatbelts and condoms".

They´d come at a cost of 5€, they say...
rte.ie/news/coronavir…
Meanwhile, in #Germany:

SALE ! Everything must go !
Rapid (antigen) test kits with 80% discount, now.

No-one buys them for self-testing,
(nearly) no-one uses the free test stations.

Rules say: it´s basically unnecessary now... Image
Germany´s RKI has published another Variant report.
Comparing the spread maps from last/this week B1617.2/Delta is a bit more established now.

But what happened in
Birkenfeld? or
Märkisch-Oderland?
They changed to dark indicators,
but no news to find🤷
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… ImageImage
#Magdeburg is also suddenly marked on RKI´s Variant map, with a (relatively) dark #B1617.2/#Delta indicator.

A ´confined´ cluster,
(~9+) students
some of them had returned from India, infected others.
All are ill, with high fever.
None of them vaccinated.
#Portugal has rising case numbers, indeed.
890 new #COVID19 cases today (591 of them in #Lisbon).
Not a huge wave, keeping in mind that their peak was at ~16.000 cases,
but enough to have reopenings cancelled for some cities...
…-portugal-esriportugal.hub.arcgis.com/apps/acf023da9… Image
One analyst says the problem in #Lisbon would mostly be
"the young ones. They are mostly mild cases and they don´t want to get tested."

Although he sees the health situation under control, he worries about high case numbers scaring off tourists...
sicnoticias.pt/opiniao/analis… Image
But there´s another issue with #Lisbon´s rising case numbers in young people.

They also end up in hospitals.

(This was also happening when #B117 first started to gain speed, earlier this year)
tvi24.iol.pt/videos/socieda…
(autotranslated) Image
#Japan had a late start on vaccinations (3.9% fully vaccinated now).
One simulation now calculated what might happen, if the State of Emergency would be lifted in 10 days:

Another State of Emergency in August.
This time, the <50´s would fill hospitals.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
On the other hand,
they already said their simulation for #Japan was not accurate.
It wouldn´t take into account:
-vaccinations for younger people
-the Olympics
-the #Delta Variant. But they also believed #Delta would make up 50% of new cases by mid July😳
news24.jp/articles/2021/… Image
#Tokyo has already found a first #B1617 variant cluster around a #school: 4 teenage students and 6 family members.

#Japan´s leading pandemic advisor says everything should be done that the Olympics will not put additional strain on the situation...
news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_society/a…
Several prefectures and cities in #Japan are now cancelling #Olympics public viewings.
And they ask to refrain from viewing the Olympics literally everywhere, except one´s own home.

#背を向ける
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
#Germany´s Groß-Gerau district wondered why their incidence was still standing out from all the others around.

(Yes, they do have some #B1617 cases, but they seem to be more of a side-effect, not the reason...)
soziales.hessen.de/sites/default/… Image
Groß-Gerau district (#Germany) actually hired sociologists to find a reason for their high case count.
Result:

Its the hedonists.
The district is said to have a high rate of people who are always ready to have fun.

(😏I´ll keep that in mind for later)
fr.de/rhein-main/kre… Image
"Not yet officially confirmed, it is thought there are ~80 cases of the #Delta variant in Northern Ireland.

While the number is small🐁, it is the rate of increase that is worrying authorities. 💥🐘😮

The number of cases has doubled since the weekend."
A surprising twist in #Australia:

the `positive´ couple who travelled across VIC, NSW, QLD is now believed they may have already been infected on May 23.
In/around a shopping centre in Melbourne, already known as #COVID19 hotspot with 9 cases.
9news.com.au/national/coron…
Hildesheim, #Germany:
after the first #Delta outbreak struck 14 kids (13 in one school class), authorities have now ordered a return to
-masks all the time
-strict 1.5 m distancing
-good aeration practice

..only at this one #school, for the next 2 weeks🤷
hildesheimer-allgemeine.de/meldung/indisc…
Wuppertal, #Germany:

A sudden appearance of 22 #B1617 cases (16 suspected) has lead to a strong rise in contact quarantines.

Nevertheless,
the army´s contacttracing support will now be withdrawn "due to the generally decreasing pandemic situation"

🤷
wz.de/nrw/wuppertal/… Image
Wuppertal (II):
45% of new cases are <20´s.
That´s because they are tested at school (2 times a week).

"~If we´d test other agegroups the same way,
we´d also find more cases there"

😐
wz.de/nrw/wuppertal/… Image
Baden-Württemberg, #Germany,
daily #Variant report:

#B1617.2/#Delta confirmed until
yesterday 82 cases in this pandemic, so far
today 122
(+40)

additional #B1617 (suspected Delta)
yesterday 65
today 109
(+44)

🐁💥🐇🤨
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/de/fachinf… ImageImage
To put into perspective how "big of a problem" #B1617 currently is, in Baden-Württemberg:

The red curve shows #B117/#Alpha.
The black is #B1617. It´s visible now
(already having some noticable impact on some districts...)

You can zoom in on this website:
rainer-gerhards.de/corona-mutatio… Image
This #Variant graph for Baden-Württemberg may indeed look crazy, but:
-we saw some messy calculations in the reports (thus negative peaks)

-there are actually quite a few reports of "first #B1617 outbreaks" from several districts, these days.⚠️
rainer-gerhards.de/corona-mutatio… Image
Obviously,
information about current status of #Delta variant´s spread is no longer seen as of common interest.

People are interested in other stuff, now.
If there´s any info, it´s mostly exclusive content behind paywalls.
(Sorry, can´t share this one🤷)
bnn.de/karlsruhe/delt… Image
Or did you know that #Leipzig says they have the most #Delta variant cases in Sachsen?
(Not Dresden, with their major outbreak in that quarantined student dormitory last week ?)

Sorry - no details available from public websites...
🤷
lvz.de/Leipzig/Lokale…
Yes
What happened in June 2020?

Germany fenced in meatpacking workers & highrise buildings, due to massive #COVID19 outbreaks.

Serbia allowed football matches,
Zurich opened Bars & Clubs,...
we were surprised by what happened next

We didn´t know better.
Yes
Now we (some of us) have vaccines

This picture was taken by Denmark´s Health Minister last night. They negotiated all night long about further reopenings.

The pictured politician confirmed:
"this was the only place in the meeting room with fresh air"
Risk perception.
What a society agrees on to be dangerous.
And what is a tolerable risk.

#Denmark has a strong focus on cycling helmets.
And they have a new catchy campaign for this.

😷Masks? Come on - get over it...
In fact,
#Denmark´s #reopening plan looks like they´re ready to just face what ever may come.
Viking-style.

("the good weather is working in our favour" even sounds a bit like they´re off to sail into the wild)
thelocal.dk/20210610/danis… Image
Apparently,
it was decided
that online-meetings were now to be a thing of the past.

(Access was for (p)residents only - but they had one uninvited guest, at the G7 summit in UK - #COVID19 outbreak, at least at one accomodation site.)
news.sky.com/story/g7-summi…
Delta in #UK: 91%
"Once again
we are seeing cases rapidly rise across the country and the #Delta variant is now dominant,"

"The increase is primarily in younger age groups who are yet to receive the vaccine and we are seeing more hospital admissions."
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Oh.
This is the map, #Denmark´s Vikings used to set sail into the reopening.
It says: you´re in the worst, from now on it will only get better.

On page 12, there´s a note:

"Assumption: vaccination works 100% after 1st dose.
Not considering #Delta" !
ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/… Image
Tirschenreuth district, Bavaria.

Home to #Germany´s first township with actually barricaded roads, due to #COVID19 (March 2020)

Overrun by a massive wave of infections with then new #B117 (early 2021)

Is now reporting zero new cases,
for a week in a row
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Actually,
Tirschenreuth is not reporting zero cases, today.

Their message was "~nothing to report anymore. You´ll hear from us, if something new happens."
🙂
kreis-tir.de/buergerservice… Image
BTW: #Tirschenreuth´s vaccination rate isn´t much above average, today.

But they had started early, with #SurgeVaccination, as soon as the wave of #B117 cases became unbearable.

(and they had
-powerful contact tracing,
-surge testing
-cooperative people)
kreis-tir.de/buergerservice… Image
And, after all:
#Tirschenreuth had the "benefit" of having had strong early infection waves.
That might have helped with additional immunity response.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Meanwhile,
in Schweinfurt, also #Bavaria:

locals are VERY upset, blaming local health authorities for "~crashing their existence, due to incompetence in contact tracing"

They want to sue the city, if it won´t get ´functioning contact tracing´ on track
😮
radioprimaton.de/2021/06/10/sch…
Final results from #Dresden are in:

Yes, it was the #Delta variant.

No, the deceased student was very likely not infected in India,
but in Dresden (by another infected person he had contact with).

They claim the chain of infections is stopped, now.
Keep in mind:
in #Germany, ~52.5% of population has received NO vaccination, so far.

They won't have much protection other than tests, masks & restricted crowds (while much of this is deemed 'unnecessary', now/soon)...
Note that this says:
60% more transmissible than the infamous #B117/#Alpha variant!
(not the wildtype we were battling around this time last year)...
#Norway doesn't fool around:

"The infection situation regarding our school has been very confusing last night.

The municipal chief therefore chose to buy time to stop possible transmissions.

That quarantine will now only apply to the identified persons"
grimstad.kommune.no/nyheter/karant…
"That quarantine" meant:
Grimstad community (#Norway) had ordered a quarantine for
ALL 650 students,
100 staff
and ALL family members (until tested)
nettavisen.no/nyheter/innenr…
This noon,
Madrid (#Spain) announced they had detected first #B1617.2/#Delta cases.

And they didn´t sound optimistic, later in the day😧
Image
#Madrid says:
-it´s already 22 cases
-it´s already community spread (no travel relations)
-already secondary cases
-they "have lost tracability completely"
~´6 weeks, until #Delta will be the dominant variant´
elcomercio.es/sociedad/salud… Image
Värmland region (#Sweden) said
"the situation is serious",

due to increasing spread of #B1617.2/#Delta in schools and basically in society.

They even introduced new "recommendations",
mostly cancelling events for young people.
regionvarmland.se/om-regionen/pr… Image
Someone summoned one of Europe´s largest cruise ferries to Cornwall (#UK) for the mere purpose of housing ~1.000 police officers for a while.

A brilliant idea,
it would have been...

(The 2nd G7-related #COVID19 outbreak, already)
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Prices for antigen rapid (self)test kits in #Germany have dropped again (-16% in two days)

Should I buy a load?
Or should I invest in toilet paper?
😏
con.mm.dm.de/tngcidmeup/2/2… ImageImage
#Delta variant:
Note that this is happening in #UK, a country where
~42% of the entire population is fully vaccinated.

´The doubling time varies from 4,5 to 11,5 days.
There are now communities with 7-day infection rate as high as 1.082/100K (Blackburn)´
news.sky.com/story/covid-19… Image
Blackburn, #UK:
Age group 0-59 years

They´re the most infected ones.
(It´s the same picture everywhere - it´s those who had not much of a chance to get vaccinated)
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
Looks like vaccination is really making a difference...

(regarding rumours about a #COVID19 outbreak among conference participants in the US.)
Yes,
that reported 7 day infection rate of ´1.082/100K inhabitants´ for Blackburn looks incredibly high, even not plausible.
It may be age-dependent.

For those aged 80-84, that rate seems to be ~30
for 50-54: ~370
for 15-19: ~1.300
(as of June 06)
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
"That´s not worth the effort, let´s give it up"

typical mindset in Germany for:
contact tracing
online schooling software
measures for schools
testing
and now: large scale vaccination centers (running below capacity, because not enough vaccines available)
tagesschau.de/inland/corona-…
#Portugal´s weekly report estimates that
most of the country will need #COVID19-control measures again in 2-4 weeks.
(matches their prediction from April)

New:
"community transmission of #B1617.2/#Delta is now confirmed. 92 cases so far" (last week: 74)
insa.min-saude.pt/wp-content/upl… Image
#Tokyo´s Organizing Committee for the Olympics estimates that of the
"77.000 participants,
7 shall be infected, every day..."

🤔
That´s a weekly infection rate of ~63/100.000 ´olympic population´.
🤨
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
As for now,
a weekly incidence above 50/100K would trigger an "urgent travel warning regardless of travel-reasons" from #Germany´s Department of Foreign Affairs.

That will change soon:
from July, they would only ask to refrain from touristic travel.
auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/ma… Image
ô...

Health authorities in #Strasbourg (Alsace, France) have activated a "Rapid Response Plan",
due to the discovery of a #B1617.2/#Delta variant cluster at the city´s art school...
grand-est.ars.sante.fr/covid-19-prese… Image
The #Delta cluster in #Strasbourg has 4 confirmed cases, 43 contacts
(so far...)

But as arts students are VERY sociable,
the response now includes surge testing and priority vaccination for staff in all bars in the area as well.
grand-est.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
Oups.

There´s another Rapid Response Plan in action in #France,
for 5 days already.
The "Landes" region (atlantic coast) registered some "spread of #Delta variant"

🌼But don´t worry - the next deconfinement step will not be hampered...
🙂🌺
nouvelle-aquitaine.ars.sante.fr/communique-de-… Image
"Don´t worry",
it´s only NINE #Delta outbreaks in southwest #France (Landes), with 29 cases (5 days ago).

They all weren´t vaccinated.
Except one, but he was a bit too late🤷

So, "it´s under control".
nouvelle-aquitaine.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
The #Delta outbreak in southwest #France started with ONE student, somehow infected in early May.

He later infected 3 others in his family,
but as sequencing took so long, they only found out much later...

They found no source
"Maybe it was born here?"🤦
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
There are also hints to 2 large #Delta variant outbreaks in nursing homes in Marseille (#France), end of May.

"No one had to be hospitalized,

except those who had not been vaccinated"
actu.fr/provence-alpes… Image
Niederösterreich (#Austria) has found 7 additional #Delta variant cases today,

some of them imported from
-Russia
-The Maldives
-Nepal
-Italy
-El Salvador

Again, sequencing took so much time that several of them had already completed quarantine...
noe.orf.at/stories/310803…
In #Italy,
gyms are back open since May 24.

Since early June, one club in #Milan has had ~10 #COVID19 cases.

One of them was now found to carry the #Delta variant.
140 contacts will now be tested...
milano.corriere.it/notizie/cronac…
Puglia region (#Italy)
has now found several families infected with the #B1617.2/#Delta variant.
25 cases, 8 suspected.
several in ICU, "for one it was devastating"

Not travel-related.
(Nearly) no-one was vaccinated
bari.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/0… Image
Like they say they did in Puglia, it should be the way to go:
✅isolate infections in time.

No lockdown, curfew, incomprehensible regulations.
Just plain test, trace, isolate and best care for the ones affected.
bari.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/0… Image
Blocking SIM cards of unvaccinated...

if you did that in Germany, you´d find:
- still some elderly, who wait for the promised vaccination appointment call on their landline
- many younger folks, frantically searching for vaccination appointment slots
🤷
tribune.com.pk/story/2304573/…
In Germany,
there may be more to getting a vaccination appointment, than just luck.

(green bars indicate at which time in the past week there was enough vaccine available, so you could make an appointment for your 1st dose vaccination.
2 different states)
impfterminübersicht.de/baden_wuerttem… ImageImage
Vienna (#Austria) now confirms they also have multiple #Delta variant cases
(12 confirmed, already completed isolation
+19 new suspected)

Sequencing takes incredibly long,
But hey, in case it gets out of control,
there´s still "regional measures"
🤦
wien.orf.at/stories/310812… Image
Heilbronn (#Germany) explains their high case numbers:

1. Asymptomatic person takes a rapid test ->positive
(20% of all cases)
2. Contact tracing THEN finds already infected contacts in their families
(50% of all cases)

But still ~25% ´unknown source´☹️
heilbronn.de/rathaus/aktuel… Image
#UK´s latest variant report (3 days old) mentions
they are now using genotyping also for detection of #B1617.2/#Delta infected cases.

Much cheaper than whole genome sequencing
and also you´d have the results in "12-24 hours",
instead of...🕰️....weeks.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
Meanwhile in #Germany
Starnberg (Bavaria) reported they had (had) 3 cases of #Delta infections.

They ´happened´ 6 weeks ago.

Authorities got the sequencing results 3 weeks ago,
and chose to publish them now.

Everything´s fine as long as incidence is low
sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/starn… Image
Germany, different state:
Only when hints point to possible #Delta infection,
a medical team visits the quarantinee, takes more samples, (initiates sequencing)...

and I hope I get this wrong:
ONLY THEN they try to find contacts as quickly as possible...🤨
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe… Image
Unfortunately it´s the official #RKI guideline:

only those cases
where hints to infections with a *new* Variant of Concern exist
shall have priority contact tracing.

And for non-travel-related #B1617.2/#Delta,
those hints (sequencing) take weeks to come.
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
While Germany is totally keen on pretending ~'everyone is already fully vaccinated and masks are futile',

Norway comes with the news that they've heard Europe will receive "a lot less Pfizer/Biontech vaccine over the next 3 months".

~25% less for Norway.
aftenposten.no/norge/i/2dEV3a…
To prevent derailment of #Norway´s vaccination plan, #FHI has been juggling the #vaccine numbers and comes up with a proposal:

-a longer intervall between the 2 doses (12 weeks)
and
-switching to Moderna as 2nd dose, instead of 2x Pfizer/Biontech
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
BTW,
Norway says it mistakenly took for granted that the high current volume of vaccine deliveries would continue or even increase...

But now, "other markets will be prioritized".
🤷
(so if your country calculated conservatively, there might be no change)
aftenposten.no/norge/i/2dEV3a… Image
Due to extreme demand,
#Germany´s Lufthansa airline plans to deploy their largest aircraft for touristic flights Germany<->#Majorca, during summer holidays.

(That´ll be 1 month from now,
if everything goes well.)
Another dream holiday destination.

I just learn what the #Delta variant now does to #Fiji.

It started ~2 months ago,
escaping from quarantine via one casual contact.

Exactly one year after they had registered their last #COVID19 case in the community...
Image
One #Fiji quarantine hotel cleaner had got infected by a guard.
Shortly after, she went to visit a funeral,
by minibus.

10 days later, they found out the infections were "#B1617".
And they were spreading.
fbcnews.com.fj/news/covid-19/… Image
It turned out it was the #Delta variant.
After 2 months outbreak, #Fiji is now recording ~90-100 cases per day. They are preparing for 200.

Tourism hadn´t come back for more than a year.
The recent lockdown already lasts ~6 weeks.
Not much left to live on
Good news from the #COVID19-hunting fire department of Marseille (#France):

"we´re still testing sewage streams in the city and find currently:
#B117 has nearly disappeared,
#B1351 is there (in small amount)
and we´re looking out for any #B1617 traces" !
Meanwhile, in #Germany

A ´pilot project´ 6 months ago
tested for 4 weeks, if traces in #sewage water would correlate with #COVID19 outbreaks.
results were promising,

so finally...
they´re going to start ANOTHER PILOT project to "refine their findings"
🤷
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
I´m tempted to say
"this is what you get, if you mess around endlessly"

Very long #COVID19 measures may have prevented people (especially kids) to get infected with all the not-so nasty things.
And those are coming back with a vengeance...
#RSV
emergency.cdc.gov/han/2021/han00… Image
The unusual time of RS Virus (#RSV) emergence seems to happen everywhere, where COVID restrictions are lifted.
Also in #Japan, where there was no RSV last year, but now -untimely- at the beginning of summer.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
Interestingly the usual wave of #RSV infections in #NSW (Australia)
was suddenly interrupted by their lockdown in April 2020.

It didn´t come back after 90 days, when the lockdown ended, but waited until the start of the warmer season (October)
🤔
abc.net.au/news/2020-12-0… Image
And New Zealand?

They have seen no #RSV wave, yet.
Despite living ´normally´ again...

They say it´s because RSV was always brought from outside the country. And this can´t happen at the moment.

And they know: when it comes back it might be an issue.
asthmafoundation.org.nz/stories/unders… Image
Ok,
a last one: #Sweden

"The 2020-2021 #RSV season never started...
195 cases of RSV were reported during the monitoring period,
which is the lowest number since monitoring began 20 years ago."

(they don´t monitor during summer, as it´s a winter disease)
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/folkhalsorappo… Image
#Norway´s FHI is reportedly reviewing their advice on facemasks.

It´s for practical reasons.
(inconvenience, cost, etc.)

Their philosophy will be:
"It´s not necessary to recommend #masks, where there´s little infection"
(including indoors...)🤨
vg.no/nyheter/i/qAGm… Image
It started from "little infection" (~0) in a small town in #Italy´s South Tyrol.
Within 2-3 days ~33 staff of one hotel were found infected.

"the speed of the virus spread was just incomprehensible".

It´s the #Delta variant.
rainews.it/tgr/tagesschau… Image
Ohh...
#Norway has now recalculated their vaccination plan again.
It seems all the juggling didn´t help.
The unexpected decrease (or non-increase) of Pfizer/Biontech deliveries now mean:

under 64´s will have to wait 3-5 weeks longer to be fully vaccinated
fhi.no/publ/plakat/va… ImageImage
As for #Germany:

they already know,
that Pfizer/#Biontech will be back to only 3.4 million doses of per week, from July on.
(instead of ~5 million Germany was used to in June)

But no outlook available.
🤷
Everything´ll be fine
sooner or later.
spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soz… Image
Uh,
Baden-Württemberg (#Germany) plans to go away from masks at #schools.

"but only schools that had no outbreak in the past 2 weeks may participate..."
🤨
"...and as soon as an outbreak is detected, masks will be mandated again!"
😣
.....gnnnNNNN
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
(sorry, I cant´take this serious, so I can´t help it):

CORONA ALARRRRRRRRM !!!!🚨
Now, that sounds more suitable:
Maybe no #masks at school, but
-only at incidence below 10
-only if tests will remain
-only if classes are permanent cohorts

AND that time in #school now shall be used to prepare for the next wave.
👍
One family,
3 kids, going to
2 different schools
1 kindergarten

#Delta infected

(I had the feeling something was at hand, when a first case was reported this morning, but no announcement from the city of #Dresden.
Seems they´re too busy at the moment...)
zeit.de/news/2021-06/1…
Yesterday,
when the #kindergarten in Waiblingen (Germany) found 1 kid to be (possibly #Delta) infected, they thought quarantining some was enough.

Today that changed:
all 150 kids and all staff are quarantined now.
The parents will need to test regularly.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
It´s just kids... not "motors", but persons.

The first person to carry the #B1617.2/#Delta variant on the island of Puerto Rico was just detected.

It´s a 4 year old girl.
Although having been warned, Lisbon (#Portugal) seems to have crossed the next red line to re-confinement.
Their 14-day incidence rose back above 240, today.

Highest case numbers since February.
Several other cities also see rising numbers.
onovo.pt/pais/lisboa-es…
As worrying as #Portugal´s numbers may be,
the President already stated "there´ll be no going back (into lockdown)".

This is drawing quite some criticism,
comparing it with the fatal decision to deconfine before X-Mas (leading to the last infection wave).
rr.sapo.pt/2021/06/15/eun… Image
´Rapid´ #COVID19 increase in Cornwall (#UK) - apparently not from the G7 summit (they say it´s too early to see those cases),

but from ordinary holiday-travelers, returning home.
"It is surprising how incredibly rapidly it is being passed between people."
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Well,
"~it´s always those travellers and returnees who bring dangerous variants to our country"

says #Tyrol (Austria),
listing the #Delta variant had been brought from countries like:
Germany
🙄
tirol.orf.at/stories/310848… Image
Remember that one?
Heidenheim (south #Germany),
#Delta outbreak "swiftly brought under control",
~a week ago...
Meanwhile,
despite immediate testing, quarantine and all those "swift control" measures...
the #Delta outbreak in #Heidenheim has grown to 87 registered cases.

They still don´t know where it came from,
And some new cases are not connected to earlier ones.
stuttgarter-zeitung.de/inhalt.corona-… Image
#Germany´s vaccination promise*:

~"If #vaccine deliveries will continue* as promised*,
it might* be possible* to propose* a vaccination date* to every adult* who is willing* to get vaccinated until August*"

(* conditions apply)🧐
Also #Germany´s #BMG (Health Ministry) on vaccines:

"It has always been evident,
that Pfizer/#Biontech will reduce their #vaccine deliveries for July-Sept."

They will reduce delivery by ~20%.
🤨🧮
🤔🧮
🙄🧮
😣
rnd.de/politik/bionte… Image
For #Norway, the reduced #Biontech delivery came as a shock.
Today, they issued their adapted vaccination philosophy.

They´ll go for "suboptimal protection":
trying to vaccinate as many people as they possibly can with ONE dose first.
(2nd dose: 12 weeks)
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/o… Image
Massive callout for fire departments in parts of Europe:

Somehow,
no-one expected the
<ahum🙄> ~exponential rise of temperatures☀️.
Test- & vaccination centers become "hotzones".
Firefighters try to cool them down, to keep them running.

Kempen, #Belgium:
gva.be/cnt/dmf2021061…
All over the #Netherlands,
test & vaccination centers suffer under the unexpected surge (of temperatures).
Test centers in the #Netherlands also register another increase:

School #graduates,
returning from their traditional ´school´s over´ parties
in Spain & Portugal...

48 (from Utrecht region, only last week) came back and tested #COVID19 ´positive´.
ad.nl/binnenland/dez…
Via Instagram, #Netherlands´ #RIVM urged all returning students to have a COVID19 test.

It´s not that Spain & Portugal have worse #COVID19 risk (it´s lower than in NL).
The issue seems to be the not-so-restricted party life, ideal for virus spread
🕺🍻💃
In #Portugal,
´the #Delta variant will have a “tendency to spread” based on the behaviour of the population
that has been “incompatible” with the control of new infections´.

says a modeller...
´It will be quick, another week or two´.
theportugalnews.com/news/2021-06-1…
Meanwhile in #Germany:

new Variant report from RKI says
#B1617.2/#Delta up to ~6.2%
#B117/#Alpha down to ~86.4 (not pictured here)

(note: overall case numbers still decreased formidably, for now)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
in #UK,

The #Delta variant now represents 96% of new cases.

"and hospitalisations are starting to rise too,
they are 48% over the last week"(!?)
Maybe the G7 summit´s effect becomes visible in distinctive parts of Cornwall (#UK).

(That would be local residents. Keep in mind: catering & security crews were brought in from all over the country, just for the event, then went back home again...)
Oh,
first time I see someone in #Germany mention this:
"There have been infection cases with the #Delta variant that took longer than the usual 14 days quarantine period to develop.
So if you were a close contact, better keep on testing even after 14 days"
allgaeuhit.de/Ostallgaeu-Mar… Image
Oh no!
The Little Mermaid 🧜‍♀️has brought the #Delta variant to the island of Sardinia (#Italy)!
(Well, in fact it was the Disney film crew)

22 infected, 84 quarantined🛀.
ilmessaggero.it/salute/storie/…
Ohhhh....😰

a record breaking #heatwave incoming for #California.
There will be cooling centers.
Airconditioned, of course.

No testing.
But those with #COVID19 symptoms might be suggested to go somewhere else, if possible...
Masks required, though.
cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/D… Image
Info from Hessen (#Germany) has been scarce.
But here´s an article with some case histories
and a simple calculation, arguing that ~right now might be "peak #Delta".

I like it.
(although it assumes that the overall downtrend would just happily continue).
hessenschau.de/gesellschaft/g… Image
But things can change so quickly:

Last week, Faerde (a holiday town in #Norway) suddenly found itself in the position of having 10% of alll the nation´s #COVID19 cases.

It also infected fully vaccinated and young people.

And holiday season is coming up!
nrk.no/vestfoldogtele…
Faerder holiday village (#Norway) now found out:

56 of their 59 cases last week carry the #Delta variant.

They think it all started at one #choir concert...
~1.000 are quarantined
and being the talk for this reason probably isn´t good for a holiday town.
nrk.no/vestfoldogtele… Image
For #BBC,
the pandemic in #UK is so, so over,
that they recommend against #hayfever:

-putting vaseline around your nostrils to stop pollen from entering your nose (😷? 👈🤭)
-spending as much time as possible indoors,
-with windows and doors shut
🤣
Image
#UK,
Cornwall:

2 weeks ago, they had so many tourists, that their ambulance service declared it a "critical incident"

1 week ago, they had the G7 summit

Now they have the #Delta variant.
Rising NINEfold in a week.
(🤔......really.... 9x ???!?😳)
Image
#UK,
Cornwall, #COVID19
June 5: 7.7 cases / 100.000 population (in 7 days)
June 12: 71.9

🤨🧮
thats a 9.34 fold rise
within one week
😳
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
#Portugal´s government has decided to

"isolate #Lisbon Metropolitan area
to protect the rest of the country"

(this time I chose uplifting colours for highlighting it,
and make it appear a bit less shocking)
onovo.pt/pais/covid-19-… Image
Hospitals in the #Lisbon area are now being told "to prepare".

"~It´s mostly young infected people.
But there´s many of them.
It´s only natural that there will be severe cases."
multinews.sapo.pt/noticias/covid… Image
Here´s the current development of #COVID19 cases for entire #Portugal.
In fact, most of the latest cases are concentrated in & around #Lisbon.

I´ve marked the 12th of May.
That was the night, the say the current wave started to spread...
…-portugal-esriportugal.hub.arcgis.com/apps/acf023da9… Image
They now call the night of May 12
a "super transmission moment".

~A week after this "moment" they found that case numbers had not only ceased to decline, but went up again.
Especially in #Lisbon, home of the team that won the league after 19 years again:
In light of the surging infections and also #Portugal´s national team playing another important match, soon

#Lisbon has now prohibited the installation of TV screens in all public places,

to avoid any further risk of major transmission events...
lisboa.pt/covid-19-medid… Image
Something that might be worth to keep in mind:
so far,
of ~2 million fully vaccinated people in #Portugal,
1.231 still got infected with #COVID19.

(that´s 0.06%)
eco.sapo.pt/2021/06/17/ent…
Sydney, #Australia

"We're in trouble, now we know the strain is #Delta"

"The 20-39-year-olds carry the burden of infection because they have bigger social networks.
So if it gets into that age group that isn't too vaccinated — it will spread even faster"
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-1…
So far, in #Sydney the #Delta variant is not impacting young ones, but:
60, 70, 50 year olds

They didn´t need to ´network´.
"They simply just passed each other".

"One case is a lady who was sitting *outside* a café where the index case was inside"
😳
There you go:
#Delta index case inside, infecting person sitting outside.

(Note:
this lovely #Sydney cafe has a nice panoramic window front that can be opened up completely.
🤔oh, wait... so this could be classified as "outdoor transmission"?😕)
7news.com.au/news/nsw/anoth… Image
All over #Germany, local authorities scale back contact tracing teams due to "falling case numbers".

#Bremen doesn't.
👍
I'd agree: Now is the time to get tracing rolling. You might really have an impact now.
Bremen (#Germany) also has a distinctive outlook:

"~in autumn, ~80% of the young will still not be vaccinated.

That gives #COVID19 another chance of impact on elderly people whose vaccination protection then already starts to weaken."
butenunbinnen.de/nachrichten/po… Image
Portugal has ´isolated´ the #Lisbon Metropolitan Area, due to rapidly rising #Delta infections there.
Travel restrictions are in force since ~2 hours now.

The area is much larger than Lisbon alone.
It´s #Portugal´s most populated area.
This is Portugal´s #COVID19 risk matrix, animated:
x - reproduction value R(t)
y - incidence (cases per 100.000 inhabitants in 14 days)
"LVT" - Lisboa e Vale do Tejo (Greater #Lisbon region)

LVT suddenly went completely offside.
=>isolation🛑
#Portugal´s most popular tourist destination Algarve also has issues:

-case numbers have tripled in a week
~34-65% of new cases are ´foreigners´😯

They will now try to have incidence calculation changed (that´s fair - but also somehow misses the point)🙄
24.sapo.pt/atualidade/art… Image
Görlitz (#Germany) once had one of Germany´s highest incidences (~600). Today, they´re down to 4.75.

But they also found their first #Delta variant case.
A returnee brought it home...
... from France.
kreis-goerlitz.de/city_info/weba… Image
#France,
had 4 main #Delta clusters:
-Landes
-Ile-de-France
-PACA
-the arts school in Strasbourg

The arts school cluster is under control, just 5 cases.

Worrying:
They found 39 more Delta cases in the region last week, not connected to any known cluster.
actu.fr/grand-est/stra…
Meanwhile, more and more #Delta cases & suspected cases pop up in #France

5 departements in Franche-Comté registered first Delta-suspicious cases, this week...
3 cases at a school are already confirmed.
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
Oh, they come in rapidly now😕

Same region of #France (Franche-Comté, 50 km apart):
"Only a few hours after the first 3 #Delta cases were confirmed at a school in Morez, there´s now another case in Lons...
in an amateur theatre group"😣
leprogres.fr/sante/2021/06/… Image
An update from #France´s "Landes" cluster(s),
probably totally outdated (3 days old):

All of last weeks 250 suspected cases seem to really be the #Delta variant.

So 30%❗️ of new cases there were the Delta variant (last Tuesday)!
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
As #Delta variant cases pop up,
and still everything looks very okay-ish,
the #Netherlands have modified their pandemic action plan to:

"Good hygiene remains important.
Wash your hands regularly.
Cough and sneeze into your elbow."

And keep 1.5 m distance
government.nl/latest/news/20… Image
NSW (#Australia) with pinpoint exposure tracking:

"they passed each other at 10-60 cm range."
"one moved through the airspace that the other one had occupied"

That was enough to transmit the #Delta variant infection.
#FleetingTransmission
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-1… Image
"THEY DID NOT HEED THE 1.5m DISTANCE - HOW STUPID! EVERYONE CAN KEE...
...oh."

Passing through the airspace of someone on the escalator in front of you is pretty much unavoidable, I guess...
9news.com.au/national/sydne… Image
Since February, when #Denmark started gradual reopenings (starting with schools), #COVID19 case numbers had steadily increased.
That changed early June:
#COVID19 just collapsed.

Even their #SSI was surprised.

So, since 5 days, masks are virtually gone.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa4… Image
Not so surprising:
The #Delta variant took hold, in #Denmark:
the variant´s share in new cases quadrupled
in just one week.
(0.5% to 2.0%)

(that doesn´t mean they have huge numbers, though)
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0… Image
#Denmark´s
latest variant report shows:
even in absolute numbers,
#Delta is increasing

(numbers are for last week.
This week´s #Delta outbreak at 2 schools & a kindergarten in Hillerød is not included, yet🤷)
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
Dresden (#Germany) again
(or still going on...):

3 more families have been found infected (10 cases, 4 already confirmed #Delta variant).

All families live in the same housing block.
150 residents will be tested.

6 schools ´affected´
dresden.de/de/rathaus/akt… Image
The list of affected schools (& one kindergarten) is interesting:

3 of those institutions had already been affected by #Dresden´s #Delta outbreak of last week (announced on monday this week).

🤔is this the link?
Image
In the first #Delta outbreak, #Dresden´s authorities suggested the events had been confined to classes.

They thought, they had "all relevant contacts" in quarantine.
Maybe the Delta variant changes the way we should think about ´relevant contacts´...🤔
dresden.de/de/rathaus/akt… Image
In the #UK,
schools and universities were the most common setting for #Delta outbreaks.

That is, of course, until holidays started...
🏖️
news.sky.com/story/covid-19… Image
Even in Israel,
the Delta variant is now causing outbreaks at schools.

Masks were gone, high grade of vaccination for adults and vaccination for teenagers started:
"The report said several adults who were infected in the school outbreaks were vaccinated."
timesofisrael.com/in-2nd-israeli…
School-masks are now back,
in parts of #Israel.

Due to the #Delta outbreaks at schools, this week.
Unusual things happening in #Israel, now:

One girl visting a concert has been found to be #COVID19 ´positive´.

She seems to have been infected by her father (returning from abroad).
Worrying point:
he was already vaccinated.

Maybe the #Delta variant?
ynet.co.il/news/article/r… Image
The weekend-isolation of Greater Lisbon is over.
But experts already say:
"the North of #Portugal may have ´only´ 15% #Delta infections. But only isolating Lisbon cannot work.

If we don´t do more we´ll have 9-10.000 cases per day again, in a month or so."
multinews.sapo.pt/noticias/covid…
Unexpected developments in #Portugal:
there are now at least 2 nursing homes with full vaccinated residents,
(Faro & Mafra)
where the majority of residents has now become infected.
2 of them have now died.
rtp.pt/noticias/pais/… Image
Another special case from #Israel,
where an 80 year old COVID19-recovered woman had received vaccination,
and now, (6 months after her first infection) is infected again (seriously ill)

note: since she had been infected before, she only received ONE dose
kikar.co.il/394725.html Image
Expecting the unexpected:

A travel returnee in Leipzig (Germany) had infected 2 family members before returning a positive test.

Infections already spread outside the family.
School classes quarantined.
Visitors of the public pool are urged to get tested
landkreisleipzig.de/pressemeldunge… Image
"As we already know from other districts,
even the vaccinated / recuperated have a risk of getting infected with the #Delta Variant".

Therefore #Leipzig makes no difference and is testing everyone.
Even ´contacts of contacts´ (secondary contacts)
landkreisleipzig.de/pressemeldunge… Image
Today, #Dresden (Germany) was testing residents of "one building", due to a #Delta cluster.
Those test results aren´t in, yet.

But it´s 3 more infected than 2 days ago.
And it´s TWO buildings, now...

(also saying: infections may occur in vaccinated, too)
dresden.de/de/rathaus/akt… Image
A pessimist in #Portugal:

"The idea of herd immunity by vaccinating 70% is outdated"😒
"Vaccines do not protect against infection and transmission capability, therefore anyone -even vaccinated- contributes to the transmission of the virus, to some degree"
multinews.sapo.pt/noticias/covid… Image
Santa Maria hospital in Lisbon (#Portugal) have noted a remarkable difference in #COVID19 hospital admissions recently:

<50 years, no underlying health conditions
(nearly half of new patients)

"This may be due to neglect of masks & distancing and #Delta"
multinews.sapo.pt/noticias/covid… Image
#Australia,
This is probably too absurd:

A (vaccinated) #Alpha infected hotel guest needs to be sent to hospital.
A (vaccinated) hotel guard accompanies him to the ambulance,
then goes to take a swab test on another hotel guest.

The guest gets infected🤨
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2… Image
Also Australia, #NSW.
This is the #Delta variant, there.
Sounds absurd but is in fact very likely:

ALL houshold contacts of of the Delta cluster have become positive.
They anticipate this to be the rule...
💯% 😵‍💫
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2… Image
With the #Delta variant´s reported capability of transmission by ´fleeting contact´ (~just by passing each other) it´s no wonder household contacts would get infected.

Another worker at #Sydney´s "Bondi Junction" (mall? station?) was found infected now.
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
Also,
one student at a #Sydney primary school (in Bondi Junction hotspot area) has tested ´preliminary positive´.

Doesn´t mean it´s #Delta or anything at all.

😕Lots of ´fleeting contact´ possibilities, here.
And there are 2 weeks of holidays ahead...
smh.com.au/national/nsw/m… Image
The #Delta outbreak on #Fiji is still expanding.
To "raise awareness", the government now makes public where people got infected.

🔴Red dots are active cases
🔵Blue dots are new infections in the last 24 hours (there are 180 blue dots, today)...
experience.arcgis.com/experience/db0… ImageImage
That #Delta outbreak in Heidenheim (#Germany) really seemed to spiral out of cotrol, ~a week ago.

Meanwhile there was an update:
They still don´t know where it came from.
But they think the outbreak is over.
🙄
Yes. They are ´basically sure´ this time...
Findings from the #Heidenheim #Delta outbreak:
89 cases
no new cases since ~a week
mostly young infected

"mass testings at school & kindergarten showed that no transmission *to third parties*(🤔uh...what´s that meaning?) took place inside the facilities"
info-corona-lrahdh.de/delta-variante… Image
The wastewater surveillance team in A Coruña, #Spain says: it´s already there🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
The #Delta variant is found in samples of the region.

From their experience it takes 23 days until the outbreak will show in the population.
"This will happen everywhere."
lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/coruna…
Interesting results from mass testing,
due to the #Delta outbreak in Dresden (#Germany):
only 2 more of 137 building residents tested ´positive´.

"All cases were infected via school, family or private activities. No infection spread inside the building."
dresden.de/de/rathaus/akt… Image
And there was a third positive test
during the mass testing in #Dresden:

residents of adjacent buildings were also invited to have a (voluntary) test.
Only 9 came.
But one of them tested ´positive´, presumedly for the #Alpha variant...
🤷
dresden.de/de/rathaus/akt… Image
So,

-It ´took 3 days for authorities in #Japan
to figure out´ that all team members who travelled on the same plane with their (fully vaccinated but #COVID19 ´positive´) trainer
were "close contacts".
-They are ´quarantined´ now.

😑 well...
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Well,
actually it took 3 days for local health authorities to find out that no-one in #Japan had asked the athletes from Uganda for contacts before😯

Who´d have thought that this was up to them - 600 km away from the airport where the athletes had landed?
asahi.com/ajw/articles/1… Image
There´s a particular ´quarantine´ for olympic athletes in #Japan: they are housed in ordinary hotels.

Hotels just recently found out they´d also be ´quarantine´ facilities.
That task seems completely overwhelming.
This manager struggled to tell his staff.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
Part of me cringes "that´s against the rules!", ダメだ...
Part of me sighs "why not - they had already spent days in plane, bus & hotel together"

🤔it´s difficult...難しいなあ

😏if the language teacher comes via videoscreen,
I think I´m ~fine with this.
In Sydney, "fleeting contact" was enough to transmit the #Delta variant.
How about one infected (unclear if infectious) Sydneysider flying to New Zealand for 3 days...?
😧
NSW (Australia) goes masks&tests,
New Zealand thinks about #Lockdown:

"Shops and bars have closed or instituted strict protocols, conferences have been shut down, and Government workers have been sent home – all within hours of the original notification."
Because all close contacts of the infected visitor from Sydney have tested ´negative´ so far,
New Zealand decided for #Level2 for the #Wellington area.

(a bit stricter than #Sydney
has❌
had until a few hours ago✅)
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co… Image
New Zealand seems to have been living so comfortably in the ´COVID-free bubble´, that they became a bit complacent:
- QR check in is rarely used (the visitor from Sydney did!)
- full vaccination rate is at 10%

This might become a big worry now (or later).
stuff.co.nz/national/healt… Image
In Australia, #NSW has now ramped up COVID restrictions for Greater Sydney..

The #Delta cluster has expanded substantially, over night...
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
Sydney´s #Delta cluster expanded

- casewise: now ~13 new cases
- geographically: 8~10 of the new cases were guests at a party ~50 km away from the initial hotspot Bondi Junction.
- agewise: youngest case is now 2 years old (childcare shut down).
9news.com.au/national/sydne… Image
As the #Delta cluster in/around Sydney looks more and more out of control,
several other states have now decided to keep the threat away by closing borders to #NSW.
In #Germany,
the #Delta outbreak at a kindergarten in Waiblingen started ~a week ago.
While the spread inside the kindergarten had been confined (9 cases, due to (reluctant) shutdown),
it was spreading to families, even in-house neighbors.

25 cases total.
rems-murr-kreis.de/jugend-gesundh… Image
Now, that happened in #Japan:

one of the olympic #athletes who was allowed leave the airport (due to a negative test) and is now sitting in a hotel has become #COVID19 ´positive´, too.

😣
bbc.com/sport/africa/5…
BTW: there´s one delegate of Izumisano city (the athletes´ host town in #Japan) who accompanied them from the airport and is staying with them the whole time.

It is likely that person who gave those language lessons, reported yesterday by Uganda news.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
#Germany has distributed extra vaccine doses to hotspot/undersupplied areas.
Unfortunately it´s #AstraZeneca.

This appears to turn away many would-be-vaccinees.

One city (#Pforzheim) has now hired an advertising agency to boost demand...
🙄
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
#Germany´s latest RKI variant report
shows #Delta/#B1617.2 has again ~doubled in a week
(now ~15% of sequenced cases).

🤔I guess:
If you´d start getting vaccinated now,
you´d still only have your first dose,
when Delta becomes dominant.🙄
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
One man did everything right (self-test, PCR,...),
authorities ´immediately´ acted, as soon as they received the sequencing result (#Delta variant)...

but only to find ~the entire family was already infected.

Delta is too fast for #Germany´s bureaucracy.
heimatreport.de/erstmals-coron… Image
Meanwhile in Australia:
Here´s #NSW´s current approach on possible infections:
do not wait until you´re sure it´s the #Delta variant.

And even then,
people may "basically have been infectious in the community for one day"

⏱️😯("24 hours to incubate"...)
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal… Image
The #COVID19 map of entire continental #France had been green for a while.
Then suddenly one area became ´orange´ again.

It´s the "Landes".

🤔isn´t that where one student infected his family with the #Delta variant 6~7 weeks ago?
Yes, it is...
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
Yes,
it was announced today:
the "#Landes" are under special surveillance now.

It´s the only departement in #France where incidences are going up. They even crossed the first alert level (50) now.

#Delta variant is now found in 70% of new cases, there.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
Also in Bas-Rhin (Alsace, #France) the number of #Delta cases seems to have doubled in a week,
now at least ~60 cases / 20% of new cases.

Not confirmed by local authorities yet,
but announced by national 🇫🇷government´s spokesman today.
dna.fr/sante/2021/06/…
Speaking of Australia´s #NSW "reacting early",

quarantining for being a
+possible+ close contact of a
+potentially+ positive case

shows some determination, doesn´t it?
Oh. There you go:

An "unfolding situation at #NSW parliament",

with one minister already testing positive
after dining at a restaurant (exposure site of the #Delta cluster),
shows quite the need to react *very* fast.
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2… Image
This isn´t the first #Sydney bus driver testing ´positive´.
but it may be the first to carry the #Delta variant...

All passengers are regarded ´close contacts´, requiring test & 14 days isolation.
Uh-oh----😯
#NSW Parliament in Lockdown?
#Australia #NSW #Delta variant:
Aaaaaaaargh.

(wait a second - the #Minister visited the ´infectious´ pizzeria less than 24 hours before this parlamentary assembly happened.
There´s a fair chance he might not have been infectious by then...)
🙄
A hairdresser is one of 11 new cases in Sydney.

also: already 4 of his close contacts.
🙄🔜🧔
Seems like
-shopping venues
and
-visits at restaurants & cafés

are likely places to get infected
with the #Delta variant in #Sydney.

(which is btw against traditional (pre-Delta) belief in Germany, that these venues never contribute to spread)
9news.com.au/national/coron…
One #Delta case has been ´exported´ from Sydney to Melbourne (#VIC).

It was a man who briefly went to visit...
the birthday party 😣(superspreader event) in #Sydney on Saturday, testing ´positive´ this Thursday, after having been at work for a while...
Meanwhile,
on the opposite side of the globe (in #Germany):

#Alpha case numbers are falling->nearly no testing required anymore->test centers close down ->case numbers are falling ->more test centers close down ->....

#Delta starts largely undetected.
saechsische.de/coronavirus/co… Image
Meanwhile,
#Switzerland realizes that its location in central Europe would make it an ideal #Delta-spreading-hub:
no tests for vaccinated travelers from Delta hotspots

(~´nothing would happen to the Swiss, since they are vaccinated with Pfizer & Moderna´)
admin.ch/gov/de/start/d… Image
One week after a Euro2020 match,
#Denmark finds there had been some #Delta infected visitors in the crowd...
Image
From green to red,
entire #Portugal skyrocketed into the
red (high incidence, fast transmission) zone
in just five weeks.

(much of this started with #Delta infections after one football match in Lisbon, on May 12...)
eco.sapo.pt/2021/06/24/do-…
To boost #vaccination participation,
the city of Strasbourg (#France, Alsace) offers vaccination-nights,
featuring screenings of EM2020 football matches or alternatively a DJ...

(ecstatic moves during the jabbing process might be not recommended, though)
actu.fr/grand-est/stra… Image
Freak rain & hailstorms have been battering different parts of Europe in the last few days.
Now one of the supercells went straight over Tübingen (#Germany) and flooded the district´s central vaccination facility.
⛈️💦
It´s unusable for at least 2 weeks.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
Hundreds of fans from #Finland had been to neighboring Russia to watch the finnish EM2020 match against Belgium.
When they returned home, the crowd was just too much for testing stations. After 3-5 hours queueing, the tests were finally omitted...
helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-i…
Meanwhile,
Finland found that ´several dozens´ (at least 34) of the football fans who had returned from Russia were infected.

They now try to get hold of ~800 fans who managed to get into #Finland without a test.
helsinkitimes.fi/finland/news-i…
Due to the undamped rising trend in #Delta cases,
#Lisbon will be isolated again, this weekend.
The same will apply to the cities of Albufeira and Sesimbra.
This time, the perimeter may be crossed with a ´negative´ test result (or vaccination certificate).
jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/lisbo…
#Spain is furious:
The second year in a row,
student parties created a ´Macro-#Cluster´.

"On the way to #Majorca, everybody had a ´negative´ PCR test. But no test was required on the way back".

~1.000 people are concerned (including quarantine).
eldiario.es/euskadi/macrob…
How #COVID19 infected (spanish) students have spread all over #Spain, when returning from their parties on #Majorca:
Image
Grimstad (#Norway) has ~24.000 inhabitants.
3.650 of them are now in #quarantine or waiting for test results.

It started yesterday.
"The young people have heard the pandemic was over, so they partied again..."
vg.no/nyheter/innenr… Image
The outbreak in Grimstad started with the young ones (15-19 years). If they had any symptoms, they may have thought it was hayfever.

The grandparents are vaccinated.

But the parents are not.
And they already pop up in this evening´s infections report...
grimstad.kommune.no/tjenester/hels… ImageImage
Oh well...
UK gives green light for travel to several holiday destinations with ´low infection risk´.
🙄
BTW: #Majorca is one of the ´Balearic islands´.
And they still have the policy to not request any test from #UK travellers (says the article).
news.sky.com/story/spains-b… Image
Since 2 days,
#France had their Bas-Rhin departement (Alsace) already on the #Delta variant ´surveillance list´.

Now they found a second Delta cluster in a company:
13 cases, so far. Probably spread via ride sharing to work...
lalsace.fr/sante/2021/06/…
Authorities in #Alsace are a bit wary about the new #Delta cluster:
last weekend, there had been a popular music festival in town.

It was an outdoor event,
but extra tests will be done at school and an extra supply of vaccine is delivered to the area now.
dna.fr/sante/2021/06/…
Baden-Württemberg (#Germany) also made a plan to deliver extra vaccine to #Delta ridden districts.

They have 30.000 doses
and 44 districts.

Each district with <20 #Delta cases shall receive 700 doses...
🤨that´d be 30.800

when >20 cases: 1.000 doses
🙄
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
🧑‍💼You will get 700 doses.
🧑‍⚕️But we had 21 Delta cases, 2 weeks ago!
🧑‍💼Naah, today sequencing results came in - 2 of them were Alpha. So it´s 700 doses.
🧑‍⚕️But, but ... case numbers have quadrupled since then!
🧑‍💼Oh. In this case you´ll need to file another request...
Meanwhile in #Australia,

the man who had visited a birthday party in Sydney (and got the #Delta variant),
had infected his boss after his return to Melbourne.
9news.com.au/national/coron…
#NSW had said Sydney would only go into #Lockdown, when contact tracing needed to freeze movements in order to cope.

Now they found:
a hair salon´s crew might have been working while infectious, since ~June 15,
900 clients since then
💇
#Sydney locks down
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
Meanwhile, in the #UK:

"We are throwing open the doors of hundreds of vaccine centres across the country this weekend so anyone can just show up."

Sounds like a good plan.
Hope it works out.
In Tokyo (#Japan),
something worrying is happening:
#COVID19 numbers have not just stopped to decrease, they´re heading back up again (~20% more than the week before)
stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en Image
Sequencing now confirmed:
the member of the Olympics team from Uganda, quarantined at Narita airport (#Japan) on arrival,
is carrying the #Delta variant.

For the 2nd infected team member (already in the host town) it´s not yet known.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Many regions all over #Japan seem to show a rebound effect, with #COVID19 case numbers going up again.
(pictured below is the national average. Prefectures like Saitama, Chiba have distinctively surged to
R (t)>1, already)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
8 days after the EM2020 match Denmark-Belgium,
#Denmark´s authorities have found 9 #Delta infections among the spectators.
They are now expanding the testing to a second grandstand (D, that´s the one behind the goal)...
Image
For #Denmark´s EM2020 match against Russia (21 June) there are now 16 #COVID19 cases recorded (on grandstand B), so far.
But ´only´ 4 are Delta cases...
Correction: the match DK-Belgium registers 24 (!) #COVID19 cases, so far.
But Denmark only cares for the #Delta variant (9 cases)
🤨(see headline / article below)!

"We thought we´d see more infections..." says #Denmark´s health authority.
berlingske.dk/danmark/fire-e…
No idea how the infections in #Denmarks´s stadium could happen.

The football fan association published a dedicated FAQ before the matches.
All relevant questions were clarified, there...

🤷
(autotranslated)
(PS: a ´coronapas´ was required)
fordanmark.dk/herrelandshold… Image
´Good news´ in Grimstad (#Norway, the 24.000 inhabitant town with 3.650 of them in quarantine, yesterday):

NO further positive test results today.
That leaves them with 62 cases and 520 quarantined contacts.
BTW: the lab says ´it´s not the Delta variant´.
grimstad.kommune.no/tjenester/hels… Image
While Grimstad´s outbreak seems to calm down,
other towns ~100 km away realize a drastic spike in #COVID19 cases.

They claim it was caused by the teens froom #Grimstad...
"they came with their party bus, last week"

(no, it´s not "russians"🙄 it´s "Russ")
nrk.no/nyheter/flere-… Image
If you wonder:
Russ are #Norway´s school graduates.
And they traditionally hire dedicated party busses: a #Russebuss.

They are definitely cooler than any stretch limo.
(example below)
And they are obviously incredibly effective in spreading #COVID19
Hundreds of fans who had been visiting the Euro2020 match in Russia returned to #Finland on Tuesday.

Now #COVID19 case numbers are rising.
Finland is worrying. So is Norway (they changed travel advisory for parts of Finland from ´green´ to ´red´)
🟢⚽️🔴
yle.fi/uutiset/3-1199… Image
Due to the high prevalence of the #Delta variant,
#Germany has declared

-Portugal and
-Russia
"Areas of Variant Concern".

Travellers from those areas will not be allowed to enter Germany (comes into effect on Tuesday morning)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Yay!!!
Baden-Württemberg gave us a new ´simplified´🙄COVID ordinance.

Featuring ONE MORE incidence threshold.
More flip-flop decisions guaranteed!

Please don´t let me be the poor soul whose infection triggers the "10" threshold and crashes weddings🙏🥺
baden-wuerttemberg.de/fileadmin/reda… Image
There are a few districts with ~100.000 inhabitants in Baden-Württemberg.
If Pforzheim had 1 case less, they´d have an incidence of 9.5 (double capacity for open-air concerts allowed)

🙄And in a town sized like this,
everybody knows which idiot took an ´unnecessary´ rapid test ImageImage
In Sydney (#Australia), they had hair-splitting restriction-zone borders, right through the city.
But only for one day, it changed over night.

The reason isn´t ´simplification´.
Those rules were just not helping against the spread of the #Delta variant.
#Sydney heard some really worrying words:

"the exposure sites have now increased beyond the areas of concern that we had",

"contact tracers are struggling to get ahead of the virus."

🤨#Delta is too fast & furious...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2… Image
2 week Lockdown for entire Greater #Sydney area.
Regional #NSW will also have more restrictions.
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
Learning curve for the #Delta variant:
if you believe you´re "safe" now,
you may not be tomorrow.

(Stay-home order areas, #NSW
2021/06/25 vs. 2021/06/26)
nsw.gov.au/media-releases ImageImage
I can´t help but thinking
this interview from early June might have had an impact on #NSW´s reluctance to impose widespread measures from the beginning.
(They still don´t call it "#Lockdown" but "Stay-Home Order")
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-0… Image
While Sydney locks down,🔐
the #Netherlands open up completely, today.
🔓 🔑🚮

Only few venues may still require a test to enter.
Masks? The owner of the venue may decide...
(except for transport & some schools)

"Distancing & vaccination will be enough"
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
It´s not that #NL isn´t aware of the #Delta variant.

They know many partying students have brought it from abroad
They know it is at 9% (last week)
They know it´ll cause a wave, hospitalisation & ICU admission for unvaccinated.

They hope it happens late.
rivm.nl/en/news/delta-… Image
Oh,
a learning curve...
and he even calls it by the L* word that one wasn't supposed to say.

#Australia, seeing that #Delta is in fact not like the variants before.
So far we hadn´t heard if any of #Sydney´s cases had been wearing a mask.
This flight attendant who "didn´t know she was a close contact to a positive case" surely was wearing one, while she served on 5 flights, while infectious...
😷
Let´s hope it helped.
#Finland´s THL is issuing a warning:
Everyone who came back from St Petersburg (#Russia) on a bus should consider themselves infected.

So far ~120 of ~1.000 tested positive,
mostly EURO2020 spectators.
One hotspot seems to be the ´Alpenhaus´ restaurant.
thl.fi/fi/-/pietariss… ImageImage
Other teams had also been playing in St Petersburg (#Russia),
and Alpenhaus seems to be a popular place...
At least 2 fans from #Sweden had been tested #COVID19 positive.

Their problem: it occured while they were still in #Russia. And apparently nobody had thought of such a situation beforehand...
🙄
(...at least the consulate thinks they´ll get food)
aftonbladet.se/sportbladet/fo… Image
As we are in the ascending phase,
I´d compare it this way:

#UK:
Cases today: 18,270
Cases on December 09, 2020: 16,578
Image
Queenslanders who are holidaying in #NSW are encouraged to return to #Queensland.

Because their outbreak at home is only the #Alpha variant... and it's not as worrying as "what is happening in NSW".

#NSW, #Delta:

Only 11 of the 30 new cases had been in isolation,
while being infectious

And isolation doesn't say there's no transmission:
"we are seeing that people in isolation, unfortunately, would have already transmitted to all their house contacts"
Another state,
another Lockdown:

an infected worker flew in to a gold mine in #Australia's Northern Territory.
Could be the #Delta variant.

~900 miners meanwhile had flown home, all over Australia. Some of them are now found to be infected...
The mine worker who caused infections in the Northern Territory mine,
had flown in after spending one night (in transfer) at a hotel in Brisbane (Queensland).
On the same floor where other #Delta variant infections had happened by mere door opening...
sbs.com.au/news/coronavir…
And now,
there´s also Western #Australia.

A lady had visited Sydney, but tested ´negative´ on June 21, back home in Perth.
-symptomatic on June 24
-another test on June 26 -> ´positive´

(probably infectious since June 22, many contacts in those 4 days)😣
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2… Image
There are now several cases,
who found out late,
that they had been "close contacts" in #Sydney.

No wonder,
the exposure site map looks like one of those pictures where you can zoom in endlessly,
and you still find new zoomable spots.
nsw.gov.au/covid-19/nsw-c… ImageImageImage
Meanwhile in #Germany:

New batches of vaccine are expected,
many #vaccination centers start to offer appointments for 1st vaccinations again...
impfterminradar.de/search Image
Even the flooded vaccination center in #Tübingen was rapidly replaced.

From today on, all appointments have been moved to the neighboring district.
By chance they had a spare vaccination center available.
😯
Staff from Tübingen will simply move in, there.
tuebingen-impfzentrum.de Image
In #France,
there is this odd #Delta cluster in the "Landes" departement.
74.2% of 126 new analyzed cases lat week were Delta.
Incidence, positivity goes up, there.

But seeing the whole region,
the picture is "good"...
nouvelle-aquitaine.ars.sante.fr ImageImage
Unfortunately,
the "Landes" departement is right at the edge of one region.
And the #Delta variant didn´t mind crossing regional borders.
Cases have now popped up with a dramatic intro in #Gers departement (neighbors, but technically another region).
rfi.fr/en/france/2021…
The first 2 confirmed #Delta cases in #Gers departement (France) were the 2 patients who had died from it.

(42 & 60 years, comorbidities, unvaccinated)
Another person (69) is in réanimation/ICU.

Multiple suspected cases are investigated.
actu.fr/occitanie/auch… Image
Yes,
maybe it should be clearly said (like here):
the vaccinations are quite successful in preventing you from being hospitalised, but:

"You may be double vaccinated, but that doesn´t mean you won´t catch #COVID19 and it won´t be pretty bloody".
🤒
bbc.com/news/av/uk-576…
In #Bangladesh,
some are escaping the #lockdown, because they simply can´t afford to stay and do nothing.

"I´m heading home - it´s better to starve with my family in the village"...
Some had left from #Finland, to go and watch a football match in a #Delta variant hotzone (St Petersburg, Russia), because they could afford to do so.

Yesterday, all over Finland ~120 of the returnees were found infected.
Today: 144, in Helsinki allone.
yle.fi/uutiset/3-1199…
...and then,
there´s the rumour that some returnees from the football match in Russia didn´t wait until quarantine was over and all their #COVID19 test results came back,
but went straight to #Finland´s largest festival this year:
Midsummer, in Himos.
iltalehti.fi/kotimaa/a/2f1c…
"Only 6 of the 18 new cases had been in isolation the entire time"

NSW (#Australia) hopes the Lockdown will succeed in stopping transmissions, at least outside of households.

But that will take some time.
"Nearly 100% of household contacts gets infected"
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
#Australia´s Northern Territory has got hold of some of the 900 mine workers who went home, potentially being infected (all ´negative´ for now).

And they found out where the first miner got his infection from.
They´re convinced this couldn´t happen in NT.
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2… Image
The special quarantine facility in #Australia´s Northern Territory seems to really work well, so far. Thus it´s their first #Lockdown. They don´t have any routine on this.

The panic-buying chaos was ´the worst I´ve seen´ for a routined New Zealander.
🤭
stuff.co.nz/travel/news/30…
The mine workers from NT flew back home all over Australia. One worker´s close contact was found back home in #Queensland, infected.

Analyzing shows: some miners carry the #Delta variant.
And ~170 of them have just arrived...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
South #Australia was spared from the latest #Delta outbreaks, so far.
But they just found 29 miners had also landed in SA.
They have no overview, how many miners have already returned to their homes in the state...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
In Western #Australia it was a lady, returning from Sydney, who unknowingly carried the #Delta variant for 2 days in public.
She went to a gym and passed it on.

And, as it is with Delta, "the new case had only minimal contact" with her...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
There aren´t many areas left untouched by current #Delta variant outbreaks.

#Australia´s national security committee will meet today.
sbs.com.au/news/emergency… Image
To good to be true?

24 guests at the #Sydney superspreader party got infected with the #Delta variant.

That's every guest, except...
"six health workers who attended the party, who were fully #vaccinated.
Not one of those people has been infected"
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
Western #Australia also sees the rapid transmissibility of the #Delta variant:

"What is even more concerning is,
this most recent infection appears to have involved only fleeting contact with the original case"

(it happened in a restaurant, a week ago)
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
#Delta infections of #Finland´s visitors to the Euro2020 match in Russia are rising:
yesterday noon: ~140, evening: 167
today noon: ~202, evening: ~300

"It´s now spreading in their families,
friends & families of travellers should get tested immediately!"
yle.fi/uutiset/3-1199… Image
The party #cluster of #students on Majorca (#Spain) has now caused 1.167 infections & 4.796 quarantines.
It´s a positivity rate of 26% (1 in 4 students became infected).

12 on the island are in hospital (´mild´ cases)
Some are in ´enforced isolation´ 🤨!?
elmundo.es/baleares/2021/…
😯!
Yesterday, the Balearic government had combed the island in search of ´remaining students, connected to the outbreak´.
They´re too young, so a test needs parental consent🙄- until the consent arrives, the students are confined & guarded at their hotel.
If I get this #Majorca thing right:

Some parents claim ´the kids are healthy´.

As long as the parents give no consent, the students cannot be tested, nor moved. In this case, they would legally have to stay where they are for 10 days (quarantine).
🙄
elmundo.es/andalucia/2021… Image
"The kids are alright..."

some students were finally transferred and tested in #Majorca´s quarantine hotel.
175 were really ´alright´ (for now)
62 tested COVID19 ´positive´
💥
The headline says it all

<
#NSW government ´lost control´ of #COVID19 outbreak
>

But I wouldn´t agree it happened "last week".
And it wasn´t because of "bad advice from health responsibles"...
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-2…
The course of decisions is set well in advance.

"This has to be the last #Lockdown".
(#NSW Deputy Premier in an interview, yesterday)
This outlines the room for ´acceptable´ advice in the future.
skynews.com.au/details/_62613…
Australia´s state of #NSW had ~150 #Delta cases so far.
(~population 8.000.000)

Germany´s #Heidenheim district had ~100, 2 weeks ago.
(~population 132.000)
They brought it down to... 1.
According to this news fragment,
Heidenheim´s success to deminish the Delta variant was:
Every ´positive´ rapid test never left isolation.
They have a dedicated "Test-bulance" visiting suspected cases at home.

And PCR lab results can be ready in ~3 hours.
ardmediathek.de/video/swr-aktu…
I 🤦don´t 🤦know🤦-🤦 I🤦just 🤦don´t🤦know:

In #Germany´s Rhineland-Palatinate,
hotel & restaurant staff / hairdressers with a ´negative´ TEST will no longer be expected to wear masks.

And their guests/clients will no longer need to present tests.
🤷
rlp.de/de/aktuelles/e… Image
And now there´s #Ireland´s government,
with the idea that only the vaccinated should have access to bars & restaurants...
(that´s the ~over 35´s)
#Australia has some more #Delta cases today.

But here´s the point, why that´s an even bigger worry than elsewhere:

fully vaccinated Autralians: ~4.7%

Pfizer/Biontech in short supply until ~August
Moderna coming in ~October
AstraZeneca... another story.
9news.com.au/national/coron…
While parts of #Australia are now running out of Pfizer/Biontech #vaccine,
the PM suggested ´under 40´s might also turn to #AstraZeneca, if they wish´.

Interestingly, state Health Ministers´ risk assessments are drastically different...: "NO!"
abc.net.au/news/2021-06-3…
Snippet from #Queensland´s COVID19 update:

"it wouldn´t have been a risk with Alpha,
but the #Delta variant is virtually impossible to control.

This is not normal for a pandemic.
Most viruses become better, not worse
This is a VERY different pandemic..."
While overall case numbers continue to decline in #France,
the #Delta variant's share has doubled (from ~10 to 20%) in a week.
(Note: total Delta numbers also going down, at the moment...)
Justified by obviously low case numbers, #France is (nearly) opening up completely, today.

Some conditions (masks, sometimes tests when large crowds) remain...
Will all of #France go into "the final stage of #deconfinement", today?

No.
The "#Landes" departement will keep "stage 3" restrictions.
😕
It's because the #Delta variant is already/still quite well established there (~75%)
The "Landes" departement (#France) has 7 active #Delta clusters, at the moment.

They managed to bring their incidence down, from 51.2 to 48.1.

"This is totally atypical. We managed to keep it around 50 for 10 days, but it could resurge any time".
Interview in #France, this morning:
"we must not freak out, but be realistic.
The current very low infection figures are falsely reassuring.
Remember: last year, the 2nd wave started in September...
this time, with the #Delta variant"
"Germany has closed borders for some countries, should we...?"

"It's already too late, the #Delta variant is already present in #France.
Of course we will need to act, but it is here and will continuously increase..."
~2,000 of the 32,000 #COVID19 cases recorded in #Scotland since 11 July had been linked to Euro2020 events.

"Most of them had travelled to London on June 18."
⚽️☣️🌍
bbc.com/news/uk-scotla…
#Finland is also continuing to see increased #COVID19 case numbers.
It started with the football match in St Petersburg, Russia... (June 21).
experience.arcgis.com/experience/92e… Image
A very likely scenario is:
Finland´s 355 new cases today are not just the imported Delta infections from the Euro2020 match in Russia.

It is also rooting in Finland´s large midsummer parties on June 26
(where some infected fans may also have participated)
iltalehti.fi/koronavirus/a/… Image
A court in Spain just decided:
it isn´t okay to quarantine students in a dedicated hotel on #Majorca, just because they´re students and MIGHT be connected to the ´Mega-#Cluster´ on the island.

The first 12 ´negative´ students left, now.

It was weird🙄...
This video from in front of #Majorca´s quarantine hotel is longer and even weirder...
At 15´ it shows an ambulance, delivering 2 new (probably really ´positive´) cases, escorted by staff in full protective suits right though the wild camera-crowd🤨
#Majorca´s government states that meanwhile 6 of the formerly ´negative´ students in the quarantine hotel have become ´#positive´ in another test...

They urge everyone to stay and those who leave not to take public transport...
#Denmark has now so much unused test capacity,
that it offers walk-in PCR tests.

PCR tests will also now be valid for 96 hours (4 days!🙄) as "access tests" to venues etc...
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
At the same time, #Denmark´s health authority states:
"As expected with the openings,
the number of contacts per infected person have gone up"

(They have increased quite a lot:
2 weeks ago, each infected case produced 2~3 contacts.
Now it is ~12 !)
If I remember right,
the limousine driver at the very start of #Australia's current #Delta crisis argued
he was not vaccinated, because he feared he'd get the #AstraZeneca vaccine...

He's aged 60+.

The current disputes certainly wouldn't have helped...
9news.com.au/national/coron…
Actually,
#Australia has a dedicated expert panel,
advising on vaccine use...

Seems like they weren't asked.
#Singapore´s vision
(they´re far from it, with ~36% fully vaccinated):

no lockdowns
no zero transmission goal
no quarantines for travellers
just let #COVID19 run free, like the flu

That would only work without great loss/damage, if ~80% are vaccinated.
And yes,
we are able to accept (or simply ignore) it:

#Germany had the 2017/18 ´breakthrough´-flu.
~40.000+ cases per week
~25.000 died
supermarkets understaffed
public transport down (mass infection of staff)
...
it wasn´t normal,
but ´okay´ for many.
tagesspiegel.de/politik/25-100…
That 2017/18 flu caught me at its very end tail.

On sensing the first symptoms, I heroically went to buy surgical #masks, in order "to protect others"...

I just made it home,
and I hardly had enough strength to open the package, when getting up again, after ~9 days.

😷🛒2018 Image
Here´s a nice overview from #Singapore:

Their #COVID19 infections in the last 28 days,
sorted by #vaccination status.

Yes, a lot of the fully vaccinated get infected.
Some of them require oxygen.

Having one dose still means: risk to go to ICU.
moh.gov.sg/covid-19 Image
Up until now,
#Portugal´s #Delta clusters were mainly focused in the South (around Lisbon).

This is´s changing, now:
#Porto in the North had its annual ´São João´ city festival, last week.

It has produced a "supertransmission phenomenon"...
🙄
multinews.sapo.pt/noticias/covid… Image
Porto (North #Portugal):

´Our positivity rate went from 1%~2%
-something we've been keeping very stable in the last few months-
to about 15% in the last five days´...
publico.pt/2021/07/01/soc…
This shows,
how the situation in #Portugal evolved, in the past ~4 months.
On average.
Some cities like Lisbon, Albufeira,... have already burst that scale and would be found at (2 week) #incidence >240 !
sdistribution.impresa.pt/data/content/b… Image
These areas of #Portugal are now deemed elevated or high risk.
New #restrictiona have just been announced,
including:
night curfew,
early closing times,
visitor limits at venues,
mandatory telework again...
sdistribution.impresa.pt/data/content/b… ImageImage
The government of #Majorca (Spain) organized a "bubble ship" to take 118 ´negative´ #students off the island and finally into the care of their home provinces.
2 decks of the huge ferry were cordoned off for the students, no contact to others was allowed.
lavanguardia.com/local/valencia…
Today,
#UK has reported 27.989 new cases.

On December 19, the UK reported two things:
- 27.052 new cases, and
- a new variant, that seemed "to be out-competing the other viruses very fast indeed" - its name later was: #B117
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases Image
It should be noted:
#England´s hospital admissions today were:
283

Back on December 19th (the day when #B117 was announced), hospital admissions in England counted:
1.812
🤔
Err...
watch out,
South Korea !
😯

(Seoul has already postponed planned easing of restrictions, yesterday)
Image
South Korea:

9.8% fully vaccinated,
age groups <50 have yet to be vaccinated...
#AUS
"In no time, #Delta infects 100% of household contacts"

Sat: A miner (~30´s) returned home, with a ´negative´ test,
Tue: he and most of his family (wife, 3 kids <10 years) tested ´positive´
Now the <6 month old baby too

The miner is hospitalised now
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0…
#Australia hasn´t got much more than #AstraZeneca, at the moment.

And it seems, no-one would take it anymore.
Not even those who already had a first dose...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0…
Yesterday #Australia hailed Singapore´s "no lockdown" plan (playing in a distant future),
today Australia comes up with it´s own vision of "don´t count the cases"...

With that low vaccination counts, this may take more than "a while to get to".
🙄
skynews.com.au/australia-news… Image
#Portugal
(33% vacc.)

also wants to change it´s current risk matrix.
But not because they "don´t count cases" anymore -
it´s because it uses 14 day averages of case numbers.

It´s far too slow!
"We have exponential growth - it matters what's going on NOW"
24.sapo.pt/atualidade/art… Image
There goes our #COVID19 surveillance/overview (and my elaborate multi-day travel/#testing plan):
yet more test centers closing down.
(they´re not just "changing opening hours", they´ll cease to exist)

🤷
I´ll take a backpack full of self-test kits with me instead...
#Bavaria Image
The "bubble ferry" with 118 #students connected to the #Majorca outbreak but ´negative´, has arrived in Valencia (#Spain).

During the voyage 13 had turned ´positive´.
They were put on dedicated buses.

Except one who was picked up by his parents by car🤷
20minutos.es/noticia/475075…
The city of #Valencia (Spain) today also reported:

#COVID19 traces in the city´s waste water multiplied by 5, in the last week.

First traces of the #Delta variant have also been found in #wastewater samples...
valencia.es/cas/actualidad… Image
#Spain defines itself as being at "High Risk", again (the entire country´s 14-day incidence is ~153).

The age group 20-29 seems to be the main driver of infections (incidence ~450, locally even ~1.000/100.000)
lavanguardia.com/vida/20210702/…
The #Delta variant is rapidly infecting all age groups.

South #Australia is praising the miner´s family of 6 for immediately self-isolating (supposedly saving the state from lockdown), when they realized their Dad had brought #COVID19 back from work.
9news.com.au/national/coron…
#Delta variant,
infecting entire families is now also reported in #Germany (no surprise).

My quick search found cases in:
Haltern,
Bottrop,
Fulda,
Bremervörde,...

just in one day.
(Reporting is always delayed due to ~14 day wait for sequencing result)🤷
presse-service.de/data.aspx/stat… Image
Vivid warning from #Germany´s Rotenburg (Wümme) district:

- even fully vaccinated may still spread infections, cause quarantines & lockdowns⚠️

- transmission of #Delta variant appears to happen via swift contacts, incubation period is also very short ⚠️
lk-row.de/portal/pressem… Image
Interesting points from Dachau (#Bavaria):

"Rapid (antigen) tests are especially useful in detecting the #Delta variant (due to very high viral load in yet asymptomatic carriers"

"Testing shall be promoted with free coffee, transport tickets, etc"
😃👍
merkur.de/lokales/dachau… Image
#Portugal has also found rapid tests to be a useful tool.

Until recently, they had to be bought at the pharmacy.
Since Thursday, citizens are entitled to get themselves tested for free.
(unfortunately only 4 times per month)
24.sapo.pt/atualidade/art… Image
#Portugal´s situation is already very "RED".

Lisboa region (LVT) and Algarve have jumped the old (14 day) incidence 240 barrier, the matrix needed to be adapted
R(t) is 1.16~1.28 (depending on region).

"~6 days until all of Portugal is above alert level"
insa.min-saude.pt/relatorio-de-m… Image
More details on #Portugal:
- ICU occupation rising, now at 47% of ´critical level´
- #Delta makes up ~70% of new cases (could be 85%)
insa.min-saude.pt/wp-content/upl… Image
Interesting detail from Australia, in Queensland´s #COVID19 update.

They have several clusters going,
4 x the #Delta variant (B1617.2)
1 x the #Alpha variant (B117, rather old fashioned)

Now, which one could be the one causing the most concern ???
🤔...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0… Image
#AUS/#QLD outbreaks:

The miners (Delta) - totally under control
Flight crew (Delta) - confident with those

The most concerning is the #ALPHA cluster😯
It´s still producing new cases, due to the full 14 day incubation period that comes with this variant !
Just to underline yesterday´s assessment by #Queensland (Australia):

today´s only new community case is of the #Alpha variant.
Connected to a cluster that started ~14 days ago.

All Delta clusters in Queensland are already confined, it seems.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0…
Out of the blue...

#COVID19 indicators in #Catalonia (~Spain) are worsening rapidly. The current rate of transmission R(t) is~2.07

~45% are fully vaccinated,
but not the young.
Average age of those infected has fallen to 26 years...
elperiodico.com/es/sociedad/20… Image
#Catalonia´s experts are warning:

even if not as many young #COVID19 patients will end up in ICUs,
many of them will still be a burden to the health system.
They even might crash it for everyone...
Image
A leading, frustrated infectiologist from Catalonia:
Image
3 weeks ago,
when #Fiji recorded 105 new #Delta cases a day,
they prepared for a ´critical´ scenario:
at 200 cases per day, they would need help from outside. They jumped 200 a few days later.

Today, they counted 522 new cases.
fbcnews.com.fj/news/covid-19/…
4 days ago,
#Fiji´s PM posted the national vaccination rate.

(today it´s ~54% with one dose,
~9% with two doses.)

Keep in mind: it´s #AstraZeneca.
Yes,
14 of the 35 ´seriously ill´ #COVID19 patients in #Israel had not been vaccinated.

If you´re about to condemn them, because "they had their chance",
this article has some more details.

Have a closer look...🤔
ynet.co.il/news/article/H… Image
"Oh, look - the young folks are back from their party trip to Salou !"

In #Spain´s northern region Navarre,
they were greated by PCR testing crews.

On the first day,
168 were #COVID19 ´positive´...🤨(out of 349 tests)😯
diariodenavarra.es/noticias/navar… Image
There are currently 3 patients hospitalised with #COVID19, in #Luxembourg.

One of them is Luxembourg´s Prime Minister.

(Vaccinated with a first dose of #AstraZeneca, May 6 - 2nd jab would have been 3 days ago, but he tested ´positive´ 7 days ago.)
wort.lu/de/politik/nac…
#AUS
Queensland´s #Delta flare-up seems to be over. It seems the short lockdown, discipline and strong testing helped.

"It´s all #Alpha cases" now.
They are all linked. 2 Restaurants play a role.
"This cluster of the Alpha variant is all coming together"
The #Delta/#Alpha outbreaks in #Queensland may not have been the last one, so vaccination would play an essential role.

The issue:
it will take another 4~5 months until relevant vaccine for under 60´s (Pfizer) will be delivered...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0… Image
Australia´s #NSW is not as happy with their current lockdown developments. #Delta spread through:
- an illegal party
- 3 construction sites
- a school
- 5 passengers on one flight (!)
...
and 7 of 35 cases had been in the community while being infectious
9news.com.au/national/coron…
That one flight to #Sydney is interesting:
- flight duration was only 1.5 hours
- 5+ infected
- the #Delta infectious flight attendant wore a mask
- she had already done 4 flights before, while being infected, this was the last one (incubation period?)
paddleyourownkanoo.com/2021/07/04/vir…
Germany/#Bavaria has different #vaccination-trouble:

Loads of vaccine ready (Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca if you like).
But as nearly all #COVID19 restrictions are already lifted, many seem to think getting a jab won´t serve them much anymore...
🤷
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
There had been promises like "vaccination will guarantee your holidays" (and a panicked 🇩🇪exodus from Portugal, when it became public that even vaccinated had to quarantine upon return)...

Now they try "no masks for you!" to motivate people to get a jab🤦
br.de/nachrichten/de…
Meanwhile in #Australia...:
"The Hunger Games of people chasing vaccines"
For some of them, the fun may have been worth it.

But as #Spain´s Navarre province continues testing specifically returnees from party/holiday location #Salou, they find more and more to be infected:

500 new cases in a day,
positivity rate now 27.5%
diariodenavarra.es/noticias/navar… Image
The sudden surge in cases all over #Catalonia did something no wave ever did before:
it ruined the testing crews´ weekend.

(Salou is also situated in Catalonia and actually has a ´medium infection rate´)
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo… Image
When zooming into #Catalonia´s infections of the last month, something becomes apparent:

the 10-29 year olds make up this wave.
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo… Image
It happens pretty much all over #Spain.

Castilla y León province will have an experts´ meeting over the surge in cases in <40 year olds...
(yes, the 30-39 year age group just started to rise as well)
The last 2 weeks saw a suspicious surge of #COVID19 cases in South #Korea.
A sudden incline, typical for #Delta outbreaks...
Image
South #Korea´s rate for full vaccination is ~10%.

A restaurant and an English education center caused 307 cases (already 9 of them confirmed as #Delta).

"80% of cases are in people in their 20´s & 30´s who are not eligible for vaccination".
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202107…
Locally, #Germany sees a rebound in case numbers.

Offenbach (Hessen) for example says:
"🤷We can´t explain it. There´s no large cluster..."

🤦THIS is EXACTLY what you would NOT like to hear...
(so unlike Australia´s Queensland´s "all cases are linked")
hessenschau.de/panorama/coron… Image
Eichsfeld district (Thuringia) also saw a sudden rise in #COVID19 cases (from incidence 0 to 28 in a week).

They have an explanation (a company cluster and cases in a residential area) and they´ll deploy more testing...
(no sign of #Delta, yet).
mdr.de/nachrichten/th… Image
This wasn´t the Delta variant.
In an article (3 months old) one mayor of Eichsfeld described the situation:
-the youngest one in hospital is a couple of months
-kids infect their parents
-a nursery teacher´s husband died from the infection she brought home
thueringen24.de/article2318996… Image
Germany´s #RKI just published some modelling (effect of vaccination rate in 12(!)-59 year olds on case&ICU numbers)
3 assumptions:
-basic measures (masks) continue
-people will reduce contacts voluntarily
-hardcores reduce contacts when ICUs run full (Nov)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
News from #Luxembourg´s Prime Minister

(48 years, vaccinated with first dose of AstraZeneca, tested ´positive´ a week ago, hospitalised ´for observation´ yesterday)
gouvernement.lu/en/actualites/… Image
Meanwhile,
#France´s government spokesperson prepares the public for a major shift, away from the ´deconfinements´,
by announcing:

"There is reason for concern.
Since a couple of days, the epidemic (especially the #Delta variant) is gaining speed..."
Today,
#Portugal faces a serious problem:
their national incidence rate is about to burst the limits of their traditional #COVID19 risk-matrix

(It escalated faster than expected)
dgs.pt/em-destaque/re… Image
Besides high case numbers:
#Portugal´s ICU occupation has now reached 55%.

And the shift in patients´ age is striking:
April: 70-79 year olds were the majority in #ICU
May: 60-69
June: 50-59
July: 40-59
🤔
saudemais.tv/noticia/33173-… Image
#Germany

finds it has widespread #Delta infections.
(not many, but Delta´s share is close to being dominant).

So lifting travel restrictions for all Delta variant-areas is just consequent...

(no test, no quarantine needed for vaccinated travellers.)
🤷
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Spain´s doctors/GP´s are overrun by young patients with ´mild´ #COVID19 symptoms.

"~This is just too much - we should be busy with vaccinations, but our waiting rooms are full with young infected people... we don´t have hands for everything!"
elnacional.cat/ca/salut/creix…
#Portugal expects its #COVID19 case numbers to double in 2 weeks (to 4.000 per day).

Hospital admissions are expected to grow by ~33% (from 600 to at least ~800).
lusa.pt/article/q%7eRi…
Oh well,
it´s #Australia - they have sharks, crocodiles and all sorts of life-threatening things.

And nursing home staff is being admired for going to work in a #Delta variant outbreak without being vaccinated.

Well - it´s Australia.
🤷
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0… Image
Of course #Sydney-stuff like having an illegal #party,
infecting 7 partygoers and now also 5 of their household contacts would not happen in Germany.

Those parties would simply be legal!
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
Freiburg, #Germany:

"Three quarters of vaccinees missing their 2nd dose appointments"

(It´s easy to get an appointment somewhere else, closer to home, but no-one knows for sure what happened...)

Another theory says: they´re off for holidays.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
#Japan asked their supercomputer Tomitake about spectators at the Olympics.
It replied:

"If 10 in 10.000 are infected,
everyone wears masks and keeps distance
and the wind blows from behind of every spectator, then less than one may be newly infected"
🤔
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
#Israel saw ~500 new #COVID19 infections yesterday,
~half of them are schoolchildren.

(A report from 2 days ago mentioned schoolchildren made up 80~90% of cases in two cities...)
ynetnews.com/health_science…
Realistic view from a doctor in #Israel:
"I think the vaccines have protected us significantly from a terrible wave with a lot of patients.
But their effectiveness is not 100%, and there are some cases, when there is no other protection."
ynet.co.il/health/article… Image
The newspaper that came with the news that ´vaccine efficacy in Israel seemed to have decreased recently´ (maybe due to #Delta),
now published the full statement from #Israel´s Health department:
ynet-images1.yit.co.il/picserver5/wcm… Image
Criticised points in #Israel´s #vaccine efficacy calculation:
- there aren´t many unvaccinated left, so difficult to compare vaccinated🟩/unvaccinated🟨
- there aren´t as many infections as earlier at the moment
- too early to see serious effects

Article:
ynet.co.il/news/article/b… Image
As #Delta infections surge and ´mild cases in young people´ put great stress on health system / contact tracers, #Catalonia has modified its guidelines.

From now on:
no test, no quarantine for the fully vaccinated
🤷
elnacional.cat/ca/salut/salut… Image
BTW: Catalonia now has the same ´close contact management´ as #Germany...

(well, the german #RKI guideline has had its last update on May 20...
a time when B117 was the main variant of concern and #Delta was still called #B1617.2 and somehow far away)
🤷
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
...and then there´s house rules:

📳"Dear partners,
due to current developments, you will be requested to provide a ´negative´ test result every 48 hours
(*even if you are fully vaccinated*)."

(Call from german critical infrastructure,
taking things seriously...)
Ah, finally
#CovidTracker #France
shows the #Delta variant´s share in the regions...

and it´s worrying.

(Here´s #Paris: incidence rate in age group 20-29 jumped from 47 to 124 in a week)😯
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… ImageImage
#Moselle departement (#France) goes a special way, again...

They once had a massive #B1351/#Beta outbreak (in February).
Now "something" is growing even stronger than the #Delta variant
🤔(case numbers not very high, though)
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
Oh.

South #Korea jumps from
"🤔maybe we should postpone the easings..." (~700 cases)
to
"😱......" (1.212 new cases)
within a day.
Image
Testing & tracing for 1.200+ positive cases a day is quite a challenge.
No wonder, South #Korea opts for "swift mobilization of military personnel, police officers and civil servants".

Testing target group is the 20-30 year olds...
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202107…
For comparison:
#Queensland (Australia) seems to have all clusters traced & under control, now.
One #Alpha infected lady, going to a restaurant caused 25 cases & 5,587 quarantines (so far)

All #Delta clusters together summed up ~4,100 quarantined contacts
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0…
The lockdown of Greater #Sydney area is still needed to give contact tracers the time they need - and that´s with just 26 new cases per day...

Exposures happen "at supermarkets, groceries, places people go for key essentials".

You can´t close them down🤷
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0… Image
#NSW´s current #Delta outbreak has sent 37 people to hospital.
23 over 55 years
6 between 35 and 55
8 under 35 years
🤔
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0… Image
The #UK´s
Chief Medical Adviser predicting "rates of #LongCovid likely to increase significantly"

while the UK´s Health Minister says
"Covid cases could soon rise above 100,000 a day, but the adults will be vaccinated"

sounds like a well thought-out plan to me...🙄
Yesterday´s
Chief Medical Adviser #LongCovid warning for #UK:
theguardian.com/politics/live/… Image
#UK´s Health Secretary:
"The really important point is... by July 19th every *adult* will be offered at least *one* jab".🤨

And still:
"Case numbers could be 50,000 a day by July 19th,
increasing further for a while, during the summer..."
The adventures on #UK´s course into "uncharted territory" are not unpredictable.

#Israel is already there:
18,500 #students isolated.

(🤔There may be a a reason why UK wants to scrap isolation for under 18´s...)
ynet.co.il/news/article/b… Image
Interesting to read:
#EU´s pandemic management,
in the eyes of a #UK commentator.

Not accurate in all points,
but insightful...
(if you scratch your head about what UK is doing, be assured: some in UK do the same about you).
smh.com.au/business/the-e… Image
#Delta infections broke #Portugal´s traditional risk matrix today.
They needed to expand it upwards, now going up to 480 (instead of 240) 14-day incidence.

🧐(despite rising case numbers, hospital occupation dropped a bit)
Oh😟

maybe this is also calculated as a ´decrease in hospital occupation´ (-13).
8 people in #Portugal died from #COVID19.
…-portugal-esriportugal.hub.arcgis.com/apps/acf023da9… ImageImage
Due to popular demand,...🙄
#Germany´s #RKI has finally updated its contact quarantine guideline, considering the new Variants (!)

Fully vaccinated persons will still NOT have to #quarantine.

Unless you know *in advance* it´s a #Beta or #Gamma case...
🤷
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
D´oh!🤦
My mistake... I had missed that hidden part of one of #RKI´s contact quarantine guideline updates:

since May 20, fully vaccinated persons were asked to quarantine, if they had contact with any Variant of Concern except #B117

(still in the cache:)
webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache… Image
According to #RKI´s variant report (just published),
it´s now more likely to be confronted with a #Delta variant case (~59%) than Alpha (~33%), in #Germany.

Beta & Gamma are below ~1%...
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Another interesting RKI chart:
Unlike #Alpha, the #Delta variant doesn´t skip fun things like:
🛫planes (21 infections last month)
🏨hotels (27)
🥳leisure activities (39)

(note: only ~30% of #Delta cases could be traced to their origin...)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
The #Delta variant´s prevalence in #France´s "Landes" departement has now reached 87.5%

(it started in early May with one student - meanwhile they have 7 ongoing Delta clusters)...
Despite the "atypical" high percentage of #Delta cases,
the #Landes departement has somehow managed to avoid a surge in cases - their incidence stayed ~ 50 (now 49.8).

Authorities now claim this would be a sign that it´s under control.
Landes will open up
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
Meanwhile,
a spot in north-east England (#UK):

+1,360.0% 🤨
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/intera… Image
😲#Queensland (AUS) affords to put an entire medical team of 10 fully vaccinated staff into 14 day quarantine.
They ~"weren´t sure their PPE wasn´t compromised" while saving a #Delta patient´s life.

Seems they have a good margin left to manage #COVID19.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0… Image
Slipping out of hands...
The mention

"#NSW may have to give up on lockdown and live with the #Delta variant"

was a bombshell, at the end of yesterday´s press conference...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0…
Western #Australia´s response was swift & direct.

Today´s talk is:
"#NSW could be cut off from Australia for months if leaders ditch COVID-19 elimination strategy"

🤨 Australia´s vaccination rate:
8.2% fully vaccinated
17.5% only one dose
Today,
in #NSW´s press conference, there was some appeasing

"~of course we´d first need 80% vaccinated before we even talk about living with the virus"

But NSW also sees a record 38 new cases
and 20 of them out in the community for a while.
#OutOfControl
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
Australia´s #NSW has currently
406 active #COVID19 cases (locally & imported)

40 are in hospital
(11 of them in ICU, with 3 on ventilators)

🤔Certainly nothing many would accept and just try to "live with"...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0… Image
Due to rapid #Delta increase:

"To those who are planning to spend their holidays in #Spain or #Portugal:
Watch out - we might impose measures, soon!
Simpley put: avoid those countries, if you still can..."

(says a government spokesperson in #France)
"#IOC's Bach arrives in #Tokyo, greeted by state of emergency"

Tokyo residents are expected to "face stay-home and watch the games on TV" requests.

🙄Unsurprisingly, this year´s #Olympics will take place in a very ´exclusive´ setting...
apnews.com/article/tokyo-…
Sounds like it was a mecha-great idea to have pressed for the #Olympics to take place during the pandemic, requesting special treatment (shortened quarantine etc.) for officials...

#Tokyo 2020 might now be the first-ever Games held behind closed doors.
🤷
"Mass Infection is not an Option"

120+ scientists try to make themselves heard,
demanding #UK to wait with complete openings
until vaccination for all/ventilation & space in schools are achieved.

(will they be heard
or will it be "Resistance is futile"?)
Image
A few minutes ago, the alarmed scientists held an ´Emergency Press Conference´...

trying to make their voices heard
against #UK´s ´premature opening plans´.
"We start with breaking news about the number of spectators to be allowed at the #Olympic Games in #Tokyo, just two weeks away..."

the number will be: zero.
🤷
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Holey Cheese !
😵
What´s going on in the #Netherlands ?!!!

Their national number of new cases went from
1.210 (July 4) to
5.475 (July 8)
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl Image
Seems in the #Netherlands it´s ´the same as everywhere else´...

the surge in #COVID19 cases happens mostly in age groups
10-19 and
20-29 years.
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
It´s escalating quickly in the #Netherlands...

"test requests are surging explosively ~you still may get a test, but you may have to drive quite far to find a station with spare capacity"

"It´s now the infected´s own job to warn all their close contacts"
embed.scribblelive.com/embed/post.asp… Image
What causes the rapid surge in the #Netherlands?

This article´s intro-picture may be a hint, but actually it´s only reporting a government comment:

"It´s surging fast, but not yet in the hospitals.
If this changes, we´ll have a meeting tomorrow🤷"
🙄
nos.nl/artikel/238848… Image
Yet,
one thing about the rapid #COVID19 surge makes the #Netherlands worry:

It already looks like the country might be classified "high risk" by others, imposing tests, maybe quarantine for tourists from NL.

"😱Then we can forget our summer holidays!"
nos.nl/artikel/238844…
Seems,
somehow in the #Netherlands it was thought to be okay for young folks to get a (single dose) Janssen jab and IMMEDIATELY plunge into fun life...

and access testings also seem to be botched.
🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦
nos.nl/artikel/238838… Image
June 26,
nearly all restrictions in the #Netherlands were lifted.

That night, a club in Enschede did a party for 600 guests.
A few days later they all met again at testing facilities: 189 of them (1/3!) tested ´positive´

(including one who flew to Spain)
rtvoost.nl/nieuws/1984985… Image
In Spain,
#Catalonia´s primary health services are completely overrun.

Health authorities say they need to prioritize:
"Close contacts with no symptoms WILL NOT BE TESTED anymore - just stay home, please!"
🙄
elnacional.cat/ca/salut/covid…
Smiles and relief in Australia´s #Queensland.

0 new cases. 👌locally / 👌imported

But that mood turned somber and stern,
when looking across the border to NSW.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-0…
Today,
Australia´s #NSW counts 44 new cases.
For only ~10 of them it´s sure they were not in the community while being infectious.

43 in hospitals, now (+6 in a day).
Also 2 younger patients on ventilator (20´s & 30´s)
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
The "#NSW living with the #Delta variant" idea is thrown in the bin, for now.

"If we chose to live with this while the rates of vaccinations are at 9%, we will see thousands and thousands of hospitalisations and death."
9news.com.au/national/scott…
Bit of a surprise in #Luxembourg:
last week saw a sudden increase in #COVID19 cases by 635%🚀
(isolated contacts: +531%)

Most impact in age groups 10-39 years.
covid19.public.lu/dam-assets/cov… ImageImage
#Luxembourg´s surge came as a surprise,
as they had lifted most restrictions for 1~2 months already.

It seems it was National Holiday (June 22) that finally ignited the #outbreaks.
307 claimed they´d been infected during that party night(s)...
wort.lu/de/politik/ste…
Even #Luxembourg´s Prime Minister is said to have had a night out on National Holiday (just fair).
It´s unclear if he contracted his infection there
(possible, he was tested ´positive´ on June 27).

He´s out of hospital again and should resume work, soon.
Infections at #Luxembourg´s schools also increased 5-fold, last week.

"That´s because of increased leisure activities" says the ministry...🙄

(one week from now, Luxembourg´s summer holidays will start - leisure activities galore.
We´ll see what happens)
wort.lu/de/lokales/inn… Image
#Germany´s RKI has just published an updated list of risk areas.
(valid from Sunday morning, July 21)

#Spain is considered "risk area" (due to surging cases)
as well as further parts of #Ireland 🤔
etc.
basically requiring a test upon entry to Germany.
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Ireland´s case numbers are not extremely surging (at the moment), rather creeping upwards (through festivities, private contacts, spread at the workplace,...)

Some ´special´ issues make it likely this might result in a larger outbreak...
thejournal.ie/public-health-… Image
#Ireland´s outlook for the coming weeks isn´t very promising:
#Delta is rising,
vaccine deliveries will go down.

"I wished there was more time, and more supplies, to enable the health service to stay ahead of the increase in cases."
irishtimes.com/news/health/de…
Spain´s tourism minister urges that
#Spain is a safe for tourists.

"~40% are vaccinated and pressure on hospitals is low.
The high case rate is only in the young people."

(🙄hey, no guaranteed hospital room with sea view for the few unlucky ones?)
theolivepress.es/spain-news/202…
#France´s foreign affairs minister was very diplomatic, during a short visit to Spain, today.

"~We all want to go on holidays - and to those from France who´d like to go to #Spain: ☝️make sure you are vaccinated !"
devdiscourse.com/article/law-or…
interesting move by #Germany´s North Rhine-Westphalia:

from today on, all those who had been away from work (for ´leisure reasons´) for more than 5 days,
will be legally requested to present a ´negative´ #COVID19 test when they return to their workplace.
mags.nrw/coronavirus-re… Image
They think about all the details...:
A test will be needed,
"If a person has a 1-day-per-week contract and takes this one day off from work: it will be regarded as 5 days away from work."

Oh, no test
if you had a few days off because of ~´sore throat´.
🤣
mags.nrw/sites/default/… Image
That´s not an explosion in the #Netherlands - it´s a chain reaction...

Not very visible in the chart, but in the numbers:
Cases in ALL age groups have started to increase
10´s:7.8->37.6
20´s:6.2->68.4
30´s:4.2->9.8
50´s:2.5 ->3.7
90+:0.2 -> 0.9
🤨
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Party´s over,
in the #Netherlands !

NL government just announced:
clubs and discos close completely
bars etc close at midnight
no restriction-easing via access test
events only with seated audience

valid: tomorrow, 6 a.m.
(after a final party night😏)
nos.nl/artikel/238864… Image
#Netherlands:
"We are now intervening because the #Delta variant is spreading rapidly.
If we let it rise at this rate, it will also affect people who do not yet have resistance.
If we do nothing, demand for care will increase again."

6.986 new cases today
nos.nl/liveblog/23885…
What went wrong, in the #Netherlands?
They had those multi-million #Fieldlab party experiments...

"-we never tested free-access-danceclubs
-we said access tests should be valid max 24 hours, not 40h
-we said ´check ventilation´
...
seems it wasn´t done"
nos.nl/artikel/238863…
Meanwhile,
Barcelona (#Catalonia) has "the main major #festival with no social distance in Europe, +20.000 persons per day".

FFP2-masks, 1 antigen test per day requested,
it´s open-air

They filtered out 126 ´positives´ before access (including 1 artist)
Germany:
the City of #Karlsruhe is
⚠️urgently searching those visitors⚠️ of

Topsy Turvy Club (Bar)

who had stayed there one week ago (Friday night, July 2).

2 infected index cases had been there, too.
Meanwhile multiple infected & scondary infections.
corona.karlsruhe.de/aktuell/corona… Image
Argh!
One visitor of #Karlsruhe´s club outbreak came from Majorca, skipped test at the airport,
wasn´t asked for a test in the Topsy Turvy club (since it technically is a BAR (no tests required).

~200 visitors - false contact data
14 infected
5 secondary
corona.karlsruhe.de/aktuell/nach-c… Image
This #Karlsruhe Topsy Turvy #outbreak is already going crazy: During press conference, contact/infection numbers went up.

⚠️Exposure also happened Saturday (July 3)⚠️

3 of the infected are vaccinated (mild symptoms).
Wastewater monitoring shows #COVID19
This was #Portugal,
on Friday: 6.463 new #COVID19 cases.

That´s not a ´wave´. It looks like a vertical wall...
…-portugal-esriportugal.hub.arcgis.com/apps/acf023da9… Image
Just ~2 days ago,
#Portugal had expanded their "#COVID19 Risk Matrix" upwards, above the 240 case rate.

Now,
Algarve is at ~660
LVT/Lisboa Vale do Tejo is at ~420
these indicators are bursting their banks...
insa.min-saude.pt/relatorio-de-m… Image
#Portugal´s overall ICU occupation is 56% (on average).
But it´s not evenly distributed.

Lisbon region has 84 ICU beds.
82 are occupied (99% !)

Algarve´s 15 occupied #ICU beds represent... 150% of their capacity.
insa.min-saude.pt/wp-content/upl… Image
Australia´s #NSW counts now a new high of 50 new cases,
(only 13 of them had been in isolation for their entire infectious period).

Patients in #ICU grow to 16,
and they grow younger
after 30´s, 20´s it´s now a teenager in ICU...
(nobody fully vaccinated)
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1… Image
A realistic estimate:
"Well, we will get down in about 3 weeks. And then you'll need another 2 to ensure you've got it right."

5 more weeks of #SydneyLockdown.
(at least)

"It's so important to do early lockdowns because then you don't have so much virus"
9news.com.au/national/lockd…
Last call:
#Israel’s Pfizer vaccines will expire at the end of July.
Those aged 12-15 who do not get their first dose TODAY will not be able to get their 2nd dose 3 weeks later.

They´ll be forced to wait until the next Pfizer batch arrives ~September.
timesofisrael.com/saturday-is-la…
Last call:
When the #Netherlands´ clubs & discos reopened on June 26, it immediately caused massive #Delta outbreaks.

The magnitude was discovered a few days ago.
Last night was the final night to have a party - all venues are closed again from now on
...
bd.nl/tilburg-e-o/de…
🤦Ironically,
today is the day that vaccinations from #Netherlands´ "Dansen met Janssen" vaccination disaster would be deemed to REALLY protect the vaccinated youngsters
(Government had promised them they were IMMEDIATELY protected and thus they partied).
rijksoverheid.nl/ministeries/mi… Image
Published today:
the advisory committee in the #Netherlands wrote to NL´s Health Minister yesterday: they aren´t really sure if the Janssen (one jab) vaccine would actually unfold its protection against the #Delta variant already 2 weeks after the jab.
🙄
rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/bri… Image
#Netherlands:

"~As it is possible that vaccinated/recuperated people may still be able to spread infections (⚠️),
we advise that (should clubs etc. reopen again) EVERYONE shall be tested, regardless of their vaccination status."
rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijks… Image
Now #France wants to try their luck:

Yesterday, #clubs were allowed to reopen (at 75% capacity).

They stayed pretty much empty: few of the target group are vaccinated (21%), many failed to present a ´negative´ test.

"Screw it, we´ll go to a bar instead"
actu.fr/societe/a-la-r…
Of course,
those in #France who live close to the border to #Spain didn´t have to wait so long.
They could simply go to Spain and enjoy nightlife there...

🤔BTW: the #COVID19 case rate in Pyrénées-Orientales has multiplied (3-4x), this week
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
This morning,
health authorities in Pyrénées-Orientales (#France) made an urgent appeal:

"~Parties & Bar visits (also to #Spain) caused significant increase in #Delta variant infections (+80% in a week!)
We urge you to get tested!
And get vaccinated now!"
Newspapers in #Catalonia report a sudden exodus of student travel groups from #Belgium.

"The Belgian travel agencies decided to call all students back to Belgium, because they had some infections..."
(Some report 6 infections others 15 or 24...)
🙄well...
diaridegirona.cat/comarques/2021… Image
The evacuation of young Belgians from #Catalonia turned into a large scale operation.
Yesterday, the first busses arrived back in #Belgium,
after 18 hours non-stop drive.

No stops allowed, as they carried the first batch of 122 infected youngsters.
😳
hln.be/binnenland/liv…
The infected youngsters were transported the 1.300 km from #Catalonia back home to #Belgium by coaches.

The last mile home was an even bigger challenge - some parents got quite creative to avoid getting infected by their kids...
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2021… Image
Saturday, some ´non-infected´ youngsters returned with separate busses from #Catalonia to #Belgium,
greeted by PCR testing.

Belgian authorities are very wary about a group of youngsters who denied tests in Catalonia,
who returned by self-organized flight.
demorgen.be/nieuws/zelfs-j…
In the #Netherlands,
more than 95%
of #LongCOVID study participants had mild symptoms during the acute phase of the infection.
Only 5% had been in hospital.

~34% of participants stated that they were currently no longer able to work. After weeks/months.
rivm.nl/en/news/long-c… Image
In Australia´s #NSW,
it´s now the essential workers (electricians, aged care workers... - those who have contacts in multiple households/working sites) who spread the #Delta variant.

And then it spreads in the families...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…
A 90-year-old in #Sydney caught the infection from a family member in her home.
She died on the day she was getting her test result.

Hospitals in #NSW see 52 #COVID19 patients now.
15 in ICU (including one 30´s, 20´s and 16 year old)
9news.com.au/national/coron…
In order to stop the #Delta variant spreading, #NSW imposes new mask rules in apartment blocks´ lifts, stairwells, corridors, shared laundry facilities,...
Applying to everyone entering those spaces (residents as well as delivery, services,...)
🤔Remember that one (~3 days go)?

Even by #UK standards, those numbers (and the wide area with similarly high numbers) in England´s North-East seemed just absurd.

They now think it might really not be alright
what´s going on, there...
"Scientific advisers have noticed a ´signal´ in the North-East surge which could be linked to a new strain that originated in the #UK."

A new #variant?
🙄
In the olden days, the next Arcade game level only commenced when you had won the previous level!
inews.co.uk/news/politics/… Image
England´s North East also sees rising signs of health impact.
(hopitalisation, ventilator bed occupation,...)

But: does it really take a "new variant" to cause this?
🤔...
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/search?postcod… Image
Yeah, yeah... ´Stop the spread´

In the end, the "new #variant" in England´s North East is only a rumour...

Which would mean:
#Delta did it.
Actually: people did it. A virus alone can´t "do" much, but wait for an opportunity to infect.
northumberlandgazette.co.uk/health/coronav…
"Human Behaviour of Concern"

Isn´t it the quintessence of any pandemic ?
A student travel agency from Belgium evacuated 350 students from #Catalonia:
3 busses for the infected (majority)
2 for those who tested ´negative´ in Spain (only 88).

After arriving in #Belgium, another test was done:
32 of the 88 were now ´positive´
🙄
hln.be/gent/negatieve…
Oh, the humanity!

Not all infected students returned to #Belgium by organized evacuation busses...

Although they were already tested ´positive´ in #Spain, parents had bought flight tickets for ~20 of them.

They boarded and flew to Belgium.
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2021…
At least the Belgian students had a ticket and a (albeit positive) COVID-test...

Meanwhile in the #UK:
Asking ´essential workers´ to preferrably stay home may be regarded as a sign of growing desparation...

#NSW (Australia) has not found a way to contain the #Delta outbreaks, yet.

112 new cases,
many of them with important functions.
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
#Sydney´s main issue seems to be essential workers who have no #COVID19 test (sometimes even if they have symptoms?), before going to work.

Also people prefer going to their GP when having symptoms (infecting staff and waiting room) instead of a test.
🤔
Here´s the reason for #Sydney´s mask-mandate for any shared indoor space in apartment blocks:

5 households in a block of 29 apartments infected,
with a common source.
9news.com.au/national/nsw-c…
If you´d calculate, that
1 dose of #AstraZeneca provides a little protection (after 2 weeks)
and the 2nd dose is now scheduled to be had after 6-8 weeks,
it might serve as an impression of how long the #Delta outbreak in #NSW may be anticipated to go on
9news.com.au/national/coron…
#Sydney's outbreak may take another "2 weeks to peak"

Sounds very optimistic.

But then again: Finland for example brought their first #Delta outbreak under control in that time.
(Okay, the next one struck soon after...)
The tremendous #surge in the #Netherlands continues.
Today´s numbers are inaccurate, as several regions "had trouble transmitting data".

#Amsterdam allone had 1154 new cases, yesterday - that´s more than entire Germany (750 cases)..."
nos.nl/artikel/238903… Image
Patient Coordinator in the #Netherlands:

"Since friday our hospitals see a break in the former trend. We also expect #ICU numbers to go up this week, due to the large number of new infections and the high reproduction rate of the #Delta variant".
lcps.nu/84-covid-patie… Image
PM says "oups,... sorry"🤷 to the #Netherlands.

"The opening had been tested in a controlled environment. But the rollout was uncontrolled... We should be more careful"
"We can get the genie back in the bottle - The Netherlands are a sensible country."
🙄
nos.nl/artikel/238902… Image
Meanwhile, #UK says "sorry, not sorry..." - no rules anymore, only ´recommendations´.

"Mr Javid said, on the evidence before him, he did not believe that infection rates will put unsustainable pressure on the NHS"
🙄
Sustained pressure it is, then?
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
In Germany,
the outbreak in #Karlsruhe´s "Topsy Turvy" club is confirmed to be the #Delta Variant.
6 of the infected are fully vaccinated.

(2 index cases infected 25 others in the club, who then infected 7 secondary contacts)
Contact search is abandoned🤷
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Germany´s RKI has revised its risk assessment today:
There´s currently still a HIGH risk from #Delta for those who are NOT/NOT FULLY vaccinated.

MODERATE risk for those with FULL VACCINATION (especially for ´vulnerable´ ones)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Germany,
Summer 2020: students travel to Croatia and return infected.

Summer 2021: infected students from Germany travel to Croatia
rnd.de/panorama/25-sc…
South Korea sees an extraordinary surge of #COVID19 cases.
Also extraordinary: 31% cannot be traced to a source...
Image
South #Korea´s President apoplogizes for asking the people to endure the strictest level of social distancing...

the fight against #COVID19 will increase vaccination
and also introduce more tough restrictions...
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202107…
The "Korea Herald" writes:

"The public isn’t so sure whether some detailed clauses are really helpful in curbing the spread of the virus.
Running speed on treadmills is capped at 6 km/h.
Music played at fitness clubs cannot exceed 120 beats per minute."
Today, #NSW found ´only´ 82 new #COVID19/#Delta cases,
and 55 of them had already been in isolation.

But: one case (an ´essential worker´) was found working while infectious, 200 km away from #Sydney - bringing the spread to a whole new level...
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
The issue:
MANY Sydneysiders seem to travel into/from far away #NSW regions for work.

Is there really the idea that a WEEKLY test (NEW: now even if you have NO symptoms🙄) might largely increase security?
That might explain, why #Delta keeps on rolling...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1… Image
The more Delta cases in NSW spread out,
the more Western Australia closes its borders ´to protect itself´.

Now even Western Australians are "not guaranteed" they can come back (from work in NSW, or a visit to a wedding there... VERY few reasons remain)
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…
We´ve seen it earlier in Germany:

Authorities cordoning off apartment blocks,
after #Delta infections occured inside.

But #Sydney does one thing different: they move those who are infected OUT to another place.
9news.com.au/national/coron…
That's an outburst in #Netherlands...

The national reproduction factor is now given as R(t)~2.17

"It's due to the openings.
60% of new infections come from bars, clubs etc."
nos.nl/liveblog/23890…
Its started with
"a few",
then "300, 900, 1.000, certainly more..."
📈
Reports of #Delta infections from just one dance festival in the #Netherlands (10 days ago) go crazy, today.
This festival was entirely open-air !
~20.000 visited, from all over NL...
ad.nl/utrecht/bijna-…
The #Netherlands government´s Vision for mid-July
(one month ago):

"~Case numbers are falling sharply,
Most restrictions are therefore no longer necessary
At festivals, masks and distancing are obsolete, if a test or vaccination (entry pass) are shown."
government.nl/latest/news/20… Image
Now, mid-July,
🇳🇱Government makes an urgent appeal to #Netherlands´ citizens:

"Everyone who has been around many people last week:
STAY HOME, AVOID OTHERS, GET TESTED..."
🙄
If anyone took them seriously,
the entire nation would shut down now...
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
Experts see the #Delta surge in the #Netherlands slowing down a bit.

"Many clubs voluntarily closed down, and people began to wear masks before there even was any press conference - it´s kind of crazy that government reacts slower than the population..."
nos.nl/artikel/238919… Image
According to NL´s Health Minister,
~80.000 people in the #Netherlands have now asked for a test,
after his appeal that "everyone who had met a lot of people/partied last week should
stay home until tested"...
🤔
In Australia / #NSW residents of certain areas are stuck in their cars for hours waiting for new compulsory COVID-19 tests...

The neighborhood´s roads are gridlocked,

waiting time for a test: up to 8 hours.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…
With 97 new cases (~60 of them safely isolated, while infectious),
Greater #Sydney´s Lockdown was just extended for 2 more weeks.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…
Meanwhile,
#France sees extreme surges,
locally
and age specific.

In Pyrénées-Orientales (border region to Spain),
#Delta infections are exploding.
Case rates bizarrely jumping up (41->550+), in age groups 10-29 years...
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… ImageImageImage
#France:
"A case rate increase of 600% in just one week in Pyrénées-Orientales,

this was seen never before."
Trying to predict what´s about to come, is challenging, with Delta.
For #France, it might be 10.000~40.000 cases per day, in 2-3 weeks.
No large effect on hospitals then - this will come late August~September. Surpassing previous peaks/Or much lower.
🤷
bfmtv.com/sante/10-000-o…
It´s national holiday in #France, today.

To avoid superspreading, many of the traditional assemblies / festivities have just been cancelled...

fireworks may go on.
(And some rallies are expected...)
Yes, there´s wide opposition against an "access passport" in #France - so they came up with an idea:

How about not waiting for 2 weeks after the 2nd vaccination dose?
And maybe a vaccination/test certificate could make masks obsolete?

🤦 🇫🇷goes🇳🇱
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
So in Germany,
the #Delta outbreak from #Karlsruhe´s "Topsy Turvy" Club has grown to 49 infections.

31 were infected in the club,
17 others are secondary contacts.

That´s not unexpected.
The suprising details do concern the infection sources...
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
The owner of #Karlsruhe´s "Topsy Turvy" club claims:

those 2 Majorca returnees,
who weren´t tested at any airport
and didn´t present any test at the club,
but where positive and infected so many, that night...

"they were both fully vaccinated".

😲!?
ka-news.de/region/karlsru…
In floods, or during a #COVID19 outbreak:

"A stabilisation" is not what you want to see.
Australia´s #NSW sees new 65 cases,
but 28 were infectious while being in community...

It´s like pumping flood water back upstream, isn´t it?
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…
Sydney´s #Delta outbreak has now "spilled" to #Melbourne (Victoria).

Via house movers (infected in Sydney - seems they dodged Victoria´s COVID protection "dams"),
then to Melbourne residents,
then into the spectator crowd at a football match...
😣Lockdown
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…
With one airport worker in #Queensland being infectious, despite being vaccinated,
it seems #vaccination is like sandbags:

you´ll need it everywhere around you,
it´ll still be leaky
and if there´s one breakthrough, it was all in vain.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…
This flood level isn´t water.
It is #COVID19 infections (reproduction value) in the #Netherlands.
Reaching record levels today.
nos.nl/liveblog/23895… Image
In the #Netherlands,
several lawyers claim "young people who got #LongCOVID after government told them it´s ~okay to party without distance & masks
on the same day you had your vaccination"
could hold government to account...
nos.nl/nieuwsuur/arti…
Meanwhile,
Australia´s #NSW has enough of seeing #Delta cases spilling out of several areas.
111 new cases.

They now decided to close the gates:

(Most) workers will no longer be allowed to leave these areas.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1… Image
The #Delta Spill from Sydney (in form of infected house movers) is evolving in #Melbourne (Victoria):

house movers infected house inhabitant -> went to football stadium -> infected (many) others, among them: a teacher -> teacher infected colleagues...
😣
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1…
While Melbourne (Victoria) is still optimistic,
Sydney (#NSW) is now nearing last resorts:

closing down businesses and construction sites was unthinkable - until now.

For them, no other way has succeded to stop/slow down the #Delta variant, so far.
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
BTW:
the #Delta outbreak in #Karlsruhe´s "Topsy Turvy" club had already spread to (at least) 51 persons.

From club to kindergarten, school, companies,...

Even full vaccinations didn´t stop this spread.
But: ´none of them is severly ill´, currently.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
Of course,
the triumphant path of the #Delta variant will not go on forever...

Like in #Luxembourg,
where the #Gamma variant (P1 ´from Brazil´) is now suddenly overtaking Delta as dominant variant...

according to their ReviLux report from yesterday.
lns.lu/departement/mi… Image
Families in the #UK have a strict separation.
Those family members over 18 may be vaccinated - they´ll stay pretty safe.
Those under 18 are said to develop ´only mild symptoms´ when getting #COVID19 - solely depending on luck now...
In #Catalonia (Spain),
there had been a strict separation:

those over 50 (red line) were prone to need hospitalisation, if they got #COVID19.
Those under 50 (green) were seen as "not vulnerable".

This is no longuer a valid argument, it seems.
dadescovid.cat/edats?drop_ind… Image
The ´Pyrénées-Orientales´ in #France are close to the border to Spain/Catalonia.
They see also rapidly rising case numbers of #Delta infections.
(7-day incidence over all age groups: ~257 (!))
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… ImageImage
In Pyrénées-Orientales (#France),
#Delta infections are highest in younger age groups
(~1% in age group 20-29 was infected, last week).
But it´s also now spreading to other ages.

And, not seen in a long time:
more hospitalisations than releases.
raw.githubusercontent.com/rozierguillaum… ImageImage
The Pyrénées-Orientales will now have to close bars etc. at 11 pm.

No use trying to have fun across the border in #Catalonia: they have installed a curfew, starting today.
"Freedom Day" tomorrow,
and I´m not sure if I should watch with fascination or turn away to keep my sanity.

(that´s how good horror movies should be - but not real life...)
Meanwhile in #Catalonia,
(full vaccination rate 58.8% of population over 16 !):

Today, ~10% more #COVID19 patients in #ICU than yesterday.

"We reacted to late to the 5th wave.
Intensive care might collapse in ~10 days"
elnacional.cat/ca/salut/covid… Image
Earlier yesterday, #Catalonia had 272 critical #COVID19 patients ICUs.
"Most of them not fully vaccinated".
Many of the older ones had only had one dose, so far.

The 17 critical patients under 30 years most likely had had no chance to get vaccinated.
elnacional.cat/ca/salut/campi… Image
#Catalonia´s Health Adviser on #COVID19:

~"Be careful,
because the health system is not the solution.
When you go there, you already have a problem.

We are able to prevent that.
The solution is in all of us."
#Victoria (Australia)
has ~3.000 #COVID19 contacts from a football match,
~1.800 from a rugby match,
one of the spectators came from Mildura (550 km away) - he´s back home and already infected a household contact...

Their #Lockdown is extended now.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-1… Image
While Victoria "is not ahead of the virus yet, but runs along to it",
#NSW is falling behind.
98 new cases today - only 54 of them were in isolation while infectious.

And still ~3 months until there´s enough vaccines...
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
🤦Oh dear...

#Japan is searching for an (admittedly ´negative´) athlete who has abandoned his team to "start a new life in Japan",
breaking each and every containment rule.

I guess from a Japanese view, the games are getting completely out of control.
mainichi.jp/english/articl…
As the #Olympics & #COVID19 become a "hot potato" in #Japan,
one main sponsor wishes to be not seen in connection with them.

Toyota stops all olympic TV-ads, their officials will not attend the games.
mainichi.jp/english/articl… Image
#Japan´s perfection:

pictures of fruit,
to induce saliva production
for #COVID19 tests.

But the"pickled plums" strategy might fail.

Google "#Umeboshi and see if you can guess the salty, sour taste🥲 or (like every first-timer) go
"🤨IS THIS EDIBLE?!"
mainichi.jp/english/articl… Image
Some departements in #France are showing an extraordinary explosion of #COVID19 infections.

This is Charante-Maritime (Atlantic coast).
Age groups 0-40 years are hit more than ever before.

It happened out of the blue,
in just ~10 days.
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ ImageImage
Charante-Maritime (#France) was taken by surprise.

"The explosion of #Delta infections coincided with the influx of holiday tourists, since a few days"

Multiple touristic sites already had to close again.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
All over #France,
infection rates have risen by 125% in a week.

"it´s a stratospheric rise"
"We have entered into our 4th wave"
🚀

Hospitalisation has started to go up as well,
more slowly
🎈
leparisien.fr/societe/sante/…
In France, the idea to install a "test for access" system faces opposition.

Meanwhile #Greenland (also ~125% case rise in a week) takes to a different level of action:
from today, only vaccinated persons are allowed to use public transport (1 jab is okay)
sermitsiaq.ag/nyt-kravkun-va… Image
In #Greenland,
case numbers had exploded, after a flight from Denmark had brought some (#Delta?) infected passengers.
Last week: 13 cases
Now: 29

Vaccination rate is actually pretty high (80~90% have their first dose).
rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arc…
Several days after #Germany hastily evacuated flood areas, some concerns pop up:
The mixing & crowding in evacuation spots might cause a spread of #COVID19.

"but tests, masks and ventilation would help"

(in fact: no-one gives a thought, at the moment...)
rnd.de/politik/hochwa… Image
The #Netherlands aren´t famous for their #COVID19 management.

But they know a thing about evacuation plans.

So, on the day of the floods, there was already given thought to infected evacuees:
"If you are ´positive´, call us.
You´ll go somewhere else".
webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache… Image
Meanwhile,
Australia´s #NSW fights the flood of #Delta infections.

It now turns out a group of workers, moving around the state while knowing they were infectious, had also infected household members at home.

One died, shortly after ´refusing support´
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
#Victoria remains confident they´ll get control over their outbreak (with a longer lockdown).
Even as contacts are now spread across the entire state...

To prevent more influx, even Victorians are now banned from returning "They should have come earlier".
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
Seems the #Netherlands did the right thing:
10 days after closing clubs & discos again, the case numbers seem to stabilize.

"Last week, infections caught in hospitality industry caused 37% of all #COVID19 cases.
This week, this is down to 19%."
nos.nl/artikel/239008… Image
The #Netherlands may have finally decided to "do the right thing".
But for a growing number of people, this was too late:

They were already infected, and more of them end up in hospital or even ICU, every day...
lcps.nu/100-covid-pati… ImageImage
These days, #France is embarrassed.
At least, they didn´t think they were doing it all too wrong...🙄
but #Delta case numbers are surging like never before
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
France saw ~18.000 new cases yesterday.
Authorities in #Bordeaux had also reported they had found 81 ´positives´ who hade been to 3 party nights at a club (and ~2.000 contacts).

It should have been fairly save, as a "sanitary pass" needed to be presented.
nouvelle-aquitaine.ars.sante.fr/communique-de-… Image
There are indications that the control of the sanitary passes at the #COVID19 spreading club parties in Bordeaux wasn´t very strict

But that doesn´t stop #France from propagating that
"soon ´sanitary pass secured´ venues can be visited without masks!"
🤷
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
Meanwhile, the #UK gets annoyed by permanent "close contact" alerts from the contact tracing app.

There´s plenty of contacts to plenty of cases, there.
🤷
And there´s also the guideline that an app "contact alert" should lead to immediate isolation...
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Looks like the #UK´s wave of close contact isolations is about to bring the country down...
🤦
Representatives of ´key sectors´ now demand their workers to be exempt from isolating, after providing a ´negative´ test.
Unfortunately it´s not a bug in the #UK app - it works fine and sends everyone into isolation who´s had become a close contact to one of the many #COVID19 cases.

Even more unfortunate:
that´s the reason why people stop using it
🙄
news.sky.com/story/covid-19… Image
Aspects of kids & #COVID19:

While their infected mums died, 2 babies were brought to life...by caesarian section.

"The fast actions of the obstetrics team saved both babies."
#Fiji
Aspects of kids & #COVID19:
Childrens' ICUs are full in the #Netherlands

Their Infection is the RS virus #RSV.
Usually kids 'learn to fight it off' through 'harmless' encounters.
Last season this didn't happen, due to lockdowns.
Now all get sick at once
In the #Netherlands,
every age group has its specific #COVID19 story.

This is the
"They´re just teenagers, let them have fun - if they get infected not much will happen to them" story
for younger people.

(it has a flipside...)
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
On the other hand,
this is the story for seniors
in the #Netherlands:

"Unfortunately, the surge of infections was not confined to the younger age groups.

Finally #COVID19 sent the elderly to hospitals,
while they surely didn´t go to all those parties"
😟
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/ziek… Image
Meanwhile in #UK, England´s #Pingdemic progresses.

Every day, (ten)thousands are alerted (´pinged´) by their app that they had been a close contact to a #COVID19 infection.

They are advised to-self isolate for 10 days immediately.
bbc.com/news/explainer… Image
Many #UK essential services claim to be threatened by quarantines:

"the current high prevalence of #COVID19 has resulted in large numbers of close contacts being required to self-isolate,
placing pressure on some council services due to staff shortages."
#COVID19 impacts UK´s #fuel supply:

"Our supply chain has been impacted by driver shortages across the #UK, and by temporary closure of our Hemel Hempstead fuel distribution terminal last week because of necessary isolations amongst staff"
bbc.com/news/business-…
An #IOC member in Tokyo, giving ´orders´
that not attending the opening ceremonie in person was not deemed acceptable by the IOC...

"The ceremonies cost $75~$100 million,
It puts a stamp on the Games and it's very important to the broadcasts that follow"
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
As the #IOC sees attendance to the opening ceremonies as paramount,

it is easy to understand the signal that #Japan gives to the IOC,
with now also former PM (and "Honorary Supreme Advisor" to the IOC) cancelling his attendance, alongside ~all sponsors
reuters.com/article/olympi…
#Queensland (Australia) has managed to get outbreaks under control. All recent variants, #Alpha and #Delta.

They´ll ease restrictions now.
But they´ve lost hope for their neighbors in #NSW.
They´ll close the border. For one month.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2…
For #NSW, the #COVID19 situation actually looks pretty dire...

"87 cases out in the community while being infectious"
😣
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
Meanwhile in UK
(a country that has chosen to let #COVID19 run free):

Of course, it´s all the contact detecting app´s fault.🙄
It faithfully gives people a ´ping´ when they had been in too close contact to an infected person.

60.000 isolate each day.
news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
"In this current state of the pandemic,
the app isn´t that useful anymore..."

(Maybe true for the #UK.
Infections seem to be ~so widespread and out of control, that you´ll be a close contact as soon as you step out of your home🤷) (exaggerating a bit)
So,
the #UK finally has an idea how to stop public life from collapsing, despite more & more "close contacts":

those with
-full vaccination and
-daily 'negative' test
shall be exempt from isolation...
#pingdemic
Just saying:
#Germany has made use of "work quarantine" for a very long time...NO test/NO vaccination required(!)

(Anecdote from a time when Berlin thought they had stopped #B117, after just one week...):
😂
And actually:
a long, long time ago,
at the very beginning of #COVID19's appearance in Germany,

long before
-Variants,
-Tests &
-Vaccination were a thing,
#Germany had made up the idea of "work quarantine":
Those ups & downs...

#UK's reluctance to vaccinate kids may be due to lacking supplies of #Biontech vaccine:
On the other hand, parts of #Germany fear they'd need to throw out expired #Biontech doses soon.

Even with
-vaccination of everyone from 12+ years
-with no appointment
-even vaccination at home

demand for ALL vaccines has receded drastically
lra-ebe.de/aktuelles/aktu…
#Delta Infection numbers in #NSW are not going down but up.

"Our CMO team advised us that the situation is regarded as a National Emergency"

"The outbreak now has the potential to impact the entire nation #Australia"
(says NSW)...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2…
#NSW now wants ALL of #Australia´s current vaccines to be sent to Sydney.

Especially Pfizer/#Biontech,
as "the population there is dominantly young".
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
#Germany,
Lüneburg

How it started ~a week ago:
(district´s official release(!))

"~1 unknowingly infected Person went to a large (XXL) party.
It´s not very likely the other ~500 guests got infected. Just get yourself tested, if you feel symptoms..."
🤔
landkreis-lueneburg.de/desktopdefault… Image
How it went on,
with #Lüneburg...

5 days after the XXL Party, #COVID19 infections started to roll.
The highest number of daily cases ever was registered.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
How´s it going now,
#Lüneburg?

The surge in #COVID19 cases triggers stricter measures today (only minor measures)
But since the surge is so massive, they already set the 2nd stage of restrictions (tests for access, reduced capacity for hotels, bars...)
🤷
corona.landkreis-lueneburg.de/corona-regeln/ Image
Don´t worry,
#Lüneburg has a plan...🤦

"We have now contacted the known party guests and invited them to come forward for immediate vaccination.
This vaccination will stop further spread and prevent those young people from getting seriously ill"
🤡🤡🤡
landkreis-lueneburg.de/Home-Landkreis… Image
In Australia today,
NSW´s Premier didn´t attend the press conference.

Instead #NSW´s distressed health minister announced that infections had reached a new record high, in large parts due to family gatherings...

"Just, please, stop doing it. Stop."
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
#NSW is really under stress:

The urgent appeal to send all Pfizer/#Biontech vaccines to NSW has been refused by other states.

Australia´s advisory group is now urging
adult citizens in Greater #Sydney to
"GET VACCINATED WITH ANY AVAILABLE VACCINE !"
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
#France seems to have had "superspreading" themed disco-nights, last weekend.

At least 3 clusters are reported now:
Doubs: 85 infected found so far, 350 contacts
Lille: 78 infected, ~2.000 contacts
Vosges: 44 infected, ~4.000 contacts
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
"Everyone who entered my club was negative"
(still ~44 got infected, there🤔).

A ´pass sanitaire´ (48h old ´negative´ antigen-test or ´full´ vaccination+7 days) is required to enter clubs in France.

The outbreaks happened while masks were still mandatory
estrepublicain.fr/sante/2021/07/…
Meanwhile,
#France has changed the rules on masks...
(accidentally on July 21, the day the outbreaks became known)

usually, #masks will no longer be demanded in ´secure´ venues with ´sanitary pass´ policy (proof of test / vaccination needs to be shown)
🙄
sortiraparis.com/actualites/cor…
A doctor in Sogndal (#Norway) now raises an issue:

8 infected at their latest outbreak had been vaccinated (at least once).

"There may be a great risk that vaccinated close contacts with quarantine exemptions may infect others."
sogndal.kommune.no/utfordring-med… Image
Mind the details:

Of the 11 ´vaccinated´ & infected people in Sogndal (#Norway) only 1 was fully vaccinated.
The others had only 1 dose.

Still not perfect,
but "fortunately, the vaccine provides good protection against serious illness."
sogndal.kommune.no/utfordring-med… Image
How did Austrlalia´s #NSW go from ´Gold Standard´to ´National Emergency´ so fast?

It boils down to the #Delta variant and its very short incubation period (~2 days faster than earlier variants).

Contact tracing cannot keep up with this speed...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
Holiday season...

Every fifth Dane (22.4 %) with #COVID19 infection thinks the infection must have happened while being away from #Denmark (holidays, etc.).

Last week, this number was just 13.5 %
stps.dk/da/sundhedsfar… Image
#Denmark´s Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

"~Many holidaymakers are genuinely surprised to find themselves infected while on holidays.
They often call us and ask what to do.
Of course they should isolate.

But many chose to get on a plane and return home."🤷
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0…
"Being fully vaccinated reduces the risk of infecting others by 4"
"Having a *fresh* antigen test reduces the risk of infecting others by 5"
🤔
(an epidemiologist from Catalonia)
elnacional.cat/ca/salut/oriol… Image
Until today,
South Korea used to publish (on twitter) 2 indicators:
#COVID19 case number
and fatalities.

And it appeared this current wave had no severe effect.
🤔(that looks alright, what´s the worry?)
Image
Today,
South Korea added one more indicator:
´Patients in Intensive Care´

and suddenly the picture changes:
😳(oh, that line is surging ! That´s certainly not alright!)
Image
Another surge in South Korea:
It´s holiday season!

Holidaymakers leave the cities for visits to the countryside - and bring #COVID19 infections with them.
That´s why government now decided to enforce #Level3 restrictions even outside the hotspot Seoul.
m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.…
South #Korea still has a low vaccination rate of ~13% (fully vaccinated).

2 weeks ago,
appointments for the 55-59 age group could be requested...
until the system shut down after half a day:

"There weren´t any #vaccines left"
koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20… Image
Interesting question:
why do England´s #COVID19 infections fall, despite lifting of restrictions?
Why did Scotland´s numbers start to decline earlier?

Is it due to school holidays? Euro2020 drop out? 600.000+ in isolation?

Some theories in this article:
news.sky.com/story/covid-19… Image
Whatever it is
that makes UK´s cases fall sharply (losing football matches, school holidays,...)

#France doesn´t seem to bother.
Their case rates are soaring
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
School holidays in #France...

guess where traditionally the entire French population spends their summer vacations.

(this would mean they count a case by where it happened, not where the infected person comes from - nice way to check the risk)
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
#France, departement "Pyrénées-Orientales (66)"

Seems the illusion of keeping infections confined to one age group simply doesn´t work out in reality.
🙄
At least: infecting 1~2% of an age group every week can´t go on forever...
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
Speaking about "privileges for the vaccinated",
could we keep in mind that some variants don´t bother?

Fully vaccinated man (with active antibodies)
becomes infected in 🇦🇺 #QLD hotel quarantine
by returnees from South Africa (likely airborne transmission)
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
172 new #Delta cases.

While Australia´s #NSW official words are still assertive,
this comment shows how the situation is perceived by many:

"They´ve lost control. They can no longer control the spread.
It´s flaring up everywhere..."
Also,
neighboring #Victoria is increasingly worried about NSW´s course...
As "~#NSW refuses to lock Sydneysiders into Sydney",
Victoria will now block the last cross-border passageways, even on local level.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
Merci à @planetnat & @vincentglad for pointing out that #France is always counting infected tourists as #COVID19 cases in their hometown-
NOT where they maybe got infected...

this means: the exorbitant case numbers in touristic areas are UNDER-estimates😳
That´s interesting:
French TV checking & correcting #France´s PM earlier claim that "fully vaccinated are not at risk of getting infected with #COVID19"

(they still may get infected - it´s less likely though... and at most times not as severe)
Also interesting findings from the #US:

"With the #Delta variant,
the viral load is ~the same~ in unvaccinated vs. in vaccinated people" (!)

"Vaccinated people have the potential to spread that virus to others"...
Image
Good to know:
#Germany´s COVID app doesn´t make a difference.
It will also notify vaccinated people in case of any close contacts...

The risk for a #pingdemic is low:
a "ping" means: go and see your doctor.
Only those with symptoms then need to isolate
🙄
br.de/nachrichten/ne…
With only 47 out of 177 new cases safely in isolation while being infectious today,
Australia/NSW´s Greater #Sydney region faces a long #Lockdown...
officially for another 4 weeks.
9news.com.au/national/coron…
Bankers are already speculating
that #Sydney´s lockdown restrictions will be in place until the end of September. (One pessimist says: mid November)...

"The Australian economy will become two-speed"

with Sydney/NSW at the losing end.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2…
Speaking of economic consequences:
#Vietnam´s measures against #COVID19 had been successful, all the way through the pandemic.

With #Delta, they aren´t anymore.

This is where all the tiny but indispensable parts for the world´s production lines come from
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
Oh,
and all those other indispensable parts of daily life,
they also come from #Vietnam.
Toyota in #Japan is now halting its luxury car production lines,
due to #COVID19 induced scarcity of essential parts from Vietnam...
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
In Japan, the #Delta variant is also starting to have overwhelming impact.
#Tokyo sees an alltime record spike in cases today (~doubling from yesterday)
😯
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
Yes,
the sudden spike in #Japan´s case numbers has to do with the Olympic Games (in some way):

the government had moved some holidays to form a long 4-day ´opening´ weekend (22July - 25July)

"No doubt that the 4 consecutive holidays are affecting us"
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
😔
#Japan, Tokyo:
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
"Fully vaccinated close contacts should get tested,
even when they stay asymptomatic..."

(update in #US CDC´s guidelines)
cdc.gov/coronavirus/20… Image
Things in Australia´s #NSW look increasingly worrying.
😳
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-2… Image
While one disease expert is optimistic that #Sydney will bring numbers down, ´because it´s similar to Taiwan and they showed it can be done´,

there´s one major difference:
Taiwan doesn´t have up to 66% of ´positive´ cases wandering out in the community
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
While Sydney sees positive cases visit family members elsewhere,
#Taiwan now looks into preventing infected family members from seeing other members of their own household.

🙍⏮️⏭️🧑‍🍼
taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/ar… Image
Tokyo´s case numbers are exploding - today 3.865 cases. (left picture shows #Tokyo cases unfold through entire pandemic)

Note: today all of #Japan also saw >10.000 active cases for the first time...
stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en ImageImage
While the infection trend in #Tokyo doesn´t slow down, #hospitalisations in the city have already ~reached earlier peak numbers...
(2.995 yesterday)
fukushihoken.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/iryo/kansen/co… Image
And this time, it´s not the elderly:
Under 50´s made up ~15% of #Tokyo´s hospitalisations, in the last wave.

Now those younger age groups account for ~59% in hospital.
(also the 30´s and 20´s increase a lot...)
fukushihoken.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/iryo/kansen/co… Image
Now, #Japan´s medical associations in unison "are urging to consider

the immediate declaration of a nationwide State of Emergency."

(seeing that limiting measures to #Tokyo allone doesn´t have sufficient effect)
ajhc.or.jp/siryo/20210729… ImageImage
Last year, Europe was surprised how easily infections were spreading from festivals in #Croatia.

This year, with vaccines, it´s different:

the festival organizer is surprised "how many vaccinated are among the infected festivalgoers"...
🤷
puls24.at/news/chronik/v…
Note:🧐
"Vaccinated" in #Austria means:

one first shot is enough

to officially count you as "vaccinated" for 90 days
and grant you untested access to all the fun...
🙄
(due to change on August 15, when only fully #vaccinated will count)
gruenerpass.gv.at/geimpft/ Image
Today, #Austria counts ~250 infected from one festival in #Croatia.

Picking one district:
Niederösterreich has found 38 infected, so far.
´33 of them were "vaccinated", 13 fully vaccinated´
orf.at/stories/322289… Image
🤔

"The #Delta Variant is as transmissible as Chicken Pox"

(that´s a heck of transmissible)

(via Washington Post, who claim they obtained internal CDC documents)
context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/def… Image
The comparison with Chicken Pox (Windpocken) had already been raised in January, during the first outbreaks of the #Alpha variant (called #B117 back then) in Berlin...
#Germany wanted to have 85% fully vaccinated,
by the end of September.

There´s enough vaccine, ample opportunity,...
but not enough uptake.

It would need 550.000 jabs per day now.
The current rate is 100.000 per day.
swr.de/swraktuell/cor… Image
Parts of Australia´s #Queensland in #Lockdown again...

Somehow the #Delta variant jumped out of Hotel Quarantine, to a medical student, to a teenager, infecting her entire family (including her vaccianted mother), spreading to schools,...
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-3… Image
Meanwhile,
Sydney (#NSW) also continues to see the rapid spreading capabilities of the #Delta variant...
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
#CDC in the US has now published their reasons
why they suddenly are worried that even fully #vaccinated persons do get infected. It wasn´t hard to find out...

It was plain obvious, when 74% of the 469 infected in one town were fully vaccinated.🤔
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… Image
You simply cannot say "vaccinated will not get infected", when
light blue bars represent fully #vaccinated & infected, dark blue are un-/not fully vaccinated infected.
(Visitors at the same events)
🤷
cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… Image
Of course,
no reasonable being ever implied that vaccination means you´ll not get infected

(Oh, BTW: from tomorrow on, #Germany will be requesting a negative test from anyone entering the country from anywhere,

except the fully #vaccinated 🙄)
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/coronavirus-in… Image
Of course,
if your entire society consists of fully #vaccinated people,
it will be the fully vaccinated who get infected.

And the unvaccinated kids,
of course.

(but maybe the spread is dampened,
like on this cruise ship)
edition.cnn.com/travel/article…
Yesterday,
someone suggested that something was ´strange´ about #UK´s rapidly declining case numbers -

the fact that a lot of people continued to report typical #COVID19 symptoms.

Maybe they just accepted their infection and didn´t bother a test?🤔
Today,
another person joins the theory:
a government adviser, suggesting that #UK´s numbers (infected<->confirmed by tests) don´t match up.

and giving reasons, why that could be the case...
🧐
inews.co.uk/news/health/pe… Image
In the UK it may be up to everyone´s personal perception whether to get tested or not...

Meanwhile in Canada´s🇨🇦 #Alberta province
"it’s good news that ~64%🙄of eligibles are now fully immunized",
"the need for extraordinary restrictions has diminished."
Image
As #Alberta deems 64% vaccinated is good enough,
they are now abandoning a lot of pandemic measures that people were accustomed to.

Including asymptomatic contact testing.

"~This will feel like a dramatic shift for many. So some anxiety is only natural."
alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI… Image
Anxiety may also come from the fact that #Alberta´s case numbers have started to push up again

And this time it´s ~all #Delta variant cases...
alberta.ca/stats/covid-19… Image
In #Queensland (Australia)
schools are the current major factor for spreading the #Delta variant.

All teachers, students and their families of 5 schools have to isolate,
with students asked to ´make every effort to separate´ from family members at home.
abc.net.au/news/2021-07-3…
9 new cases in #Queensland
A karate class caused students and parents from different schools to mingle and so get infected...

"We know it´s the #Delta variant.
We know it can transmit within seconds of exposure,
and then you can transmit after 30 hours"⏱️
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
Meanwhile in #NSW
young people account for 60% of new cases.

Vaccines are still scarce (besides #AstraZeneca), so rare Pfizer doses are allocated to where NSW thinks it´s best.

Even cancelling appointments, so "some people have to wait a few extra weeks"
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
I don´t know
what caused #NSW´s Premier to make these claims.

But I know this has huge potential to backfire,
when single-jabbed #AstraZeneca vaccinees venture out into the #Delta outbreak,
thinking they are protected...
🙄
I just don´t know.
9news.com.au/national/nsw-c… Image
#Denmark´s SSI points out, that 22% of new infections are currently in people who had received a first jab (btw not #AstraZeneca in DK) against #COVID19.
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Earlier, #Denmark had issued ´Coronapas´ access certificates even to those who had only received one jab.

As of today, this is revised:
You will need NO certificate at all (in venues with less than 500 guests. At gyms there still may be random controls)
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0…
Multiple regions are alerting:
it´s going wrong, in #France.

Nouvelle-Aquitaine (fully vaccinated: ~55%) saw their incidence rate double in a week (96->219), in all age groups.

Hospital/ICU admissions are also rising rapidly.
nouvelle-aquitaine.ars.sante.fr/communique-de-… Image
#France´s Occitania region has been warning for a while,
now they issued an

"Urgent Alert to the Public"
their incidence surpassed 12x the alert level

(fully vaccinated: ~52%
Note: that´s 52% of all age groups, including ´non-eligible´ children!)
In #Occitania,
there´s a bad symbiosis between tourism & #COVID19.

Tourists bring (ordinary) emergencies as well as opportunity for the virus to spread.
Admissions to hospitals/ICU has increased 10-fold in a month.

a record level is expected ~in a week.
occitanie.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
In Occitania,
"those in ICU are quite young and not fully vaccinated".

But measures in parts of the region seem to show first effects (especially reducing youth infections).
And the region managed to vaccinate 5% of their adult population last week.
occitanie.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
As the #Delta variant is "spreading at an alarming rate"
and it´s already hard to find enough medical personnel (it´s holiday season), #France´s Occitania makes use of an internet platform, where willing personnel can offer their help.
occitanie.ars.sante.fr/renfortrh-appe… Image
Some countries see infections in schools as 'inevitable'.
Queensland (#Australia) sees them as a major problem.
#Queensland is really serious about their lockdown.
It is extended.
"If you don't need to leave your house, don't."

And as having kids in some schools is currently ~a guarantee to be a contact, thousands of families are in home quarantine...
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
One of the 13 newly #Delta infected children in Brisbane has a ´precondition´ and was transported to hospital as a precaution.

Not to a Brisbane hospital, but to one ~70 km away...
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0…
Meanwhile, with 207 new cases,
#NSW is confident that schools will reopen...

before 2022.

(but won´t guarantee)
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
If anyone would be able to control outbreaks,
wouldn´t it be #China?

A dozen cleaning personnel got infected with the Delta variant, while cleaning an *empty* airplane...
and within 10 days, 200+ #Delta infections have spread to ~20 cities all over China.
news.cgtn.com/news/2021-08-0… Image
Definition of "close contacts" (should be) revised,
in #China:

being in the same building with a case,
up to 4 days before a confirmed infection

🤔really?
xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0… Image
Meanwhile, #UK has decided to modify their app, so it will only ´ping´ those with
"very close contacts during the most infectious period" (2 days)...

🙄
bbc.com/news/uk-580621…
Queensland, Australia:
The #Delta outbreak across #Brisbane schools is impacting the city´s medical system:

50% of the city´s surgeons need to isolate.

At the same time,
a dedicated hospital is prepared to receive infected children.
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0…
The model on which #Australia´s government is supposed to decide further actions has been released.
It says
"not possible to constrain outbreaks with light restrictions",
even if vaccination rate reaches 70%.

(when Test, Tracing & Isolate isn´t perfect)
doherty.edu.au/news-events/ne… Image
China says,
the #Delta outbreak in Zhengzhou is not connected to the outbreaks that started with Nanjing airport.

This one started from a local hospital.
China also claims
another outbreak in #Shanghai was averted when a (vaccinated) airport worker became infected: all airport staff is vaccinated, so infections didn't spread so far.
Good sign: #COVID19 case rise in #France might seem to slow down.
Not good yet: #ICU admissions seem to keep on surging
(they started rising ~3 weeks later than case numbers - will they also stop their surge 3 weeks later?)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Several regions of #France are now activating their "Plan Blanc" (medical contingency plan), mobilizing all medical reserves:
Corsica
Vaucluse (PACA)
Pyrénées-Atlantiques
...
(basically France´s major touristic areas)
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
This shows the situation in #France´s PACA region:

spare places in ICU are already rare (nurses also try to finally have a holiday),
tourists already fill up ICUs

and suddenly: a surge in #COVID19 infections. #Delta has found its way into nursing homes😦
paca.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
Bastia, Corsica (#France):
"~last week, we saw a rapidly rising influx of #COVID19 patients.
Then, this weekend, our ICU was virtually full.

And nearly all of them are not vaccinated."
Australia´s #Queensland wants to end their #Delta lockdown as soon as possible.
To achieve that goal they would need to pause contact activities as much as possible.

Including: online shopping.
🤔 It makes sense, in a way...
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
Meanwhile #NSW is ´concerned about how quickly #Delta spreads in apartment complexes.

please take note
- not to congregate in communal areas
- not to share lifts
- not to use any facilities that have been in touch with other people´
“He was being checked daily and he did complain of feeling a little fatigued but the deterioration happened suddenly,”

An infected man in his 20´s in #Sydney suddenly died in home isolation, while ´recuperating under daily health surveillance´...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
´Recuperating at home, under (not necessarily daily) health surveillance´ is the plan for the new normal in #Japan´s hotspots,
as hospitals are too full to care for everyone.

You´ll get a pulse oximeter
and a phone number to call, when things deteriorate
mainichi.jp/english/articl…
In a rare moment of union, #Japan´s opposition calls on the government to withdraw the idea of "home recuperation as the rule".

But as the government´s advisor pointed out:
you´ll need free beds to at least take in the critical cases.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Meanwhile,
#China is reopening its dedicated "火神山" #COVID19 hospitals.

(at least confirmed for Zhengzhou)
news.sina.com.cn/c/2021-08-03/d… Image
Given that even #China says

"~14 days after the #Delta outbreak started,
it has now spread to 17 provinces and counts
´more than 400´ cases"

... I come to realize what an extraordinary job health authorities in #Australia seem to do.
globaltimes.cn/page/202108/12…
Amazing -
even twitter cannot deal with all the information...
What #Australia (unlike China) can't do: screen the entire area's population in one day, to make sure there are no hidden infections circulating.

So if one case is missed, it might pop up later as another outbreak...
Victoria going into #Lockdown again:
#China is throwing a lot at its Nanjing #Delta outbreak (and the subsequent clusters).

The index case had arrived by plane on July 10.
It has now spread to 29 provinces.

Nevertheless "It can be controlled in 2-3 incubation periods (6~42 days)"
globaltimes.cn/page/202108/12… Image
#Queensland´s (Australia) approach to their current #Delta outbreak is different.
They have Dr. Young, charming & motivating everyone:

"If we get out of this #Lockdown on Sunday it will be the quickest response to any significant cluster anywhere."
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
Bergen (#Norway) had adopted a relaxed approach, recently.

No matter which variant appeared - it was mostly young folks who got infected, so it was ´okayish´...

But now, #Delta is spreading in a massive outbreak,
and it also enters nursing homes again😕
nrk.no/vestland/frykt… Image
Due to the current #Delta outbreak, the city of #Bergen has now issued new rules.

My favourite one:
"Music volume must be kept at such a level that guests are able to have a conversation at a one metre distance."
bergen.kommune.no/hvaskjer/tema/… Image
"Many parts of #Japan are seeing an unprecedented and extremely rapid increase in the number of new coronavirus cases."

"the number of seriously ill patients has also doubled over the past two weeks, putting the healthcare system under severe strain."
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
There´s 5.000+ new #COVID19 cases in #Tokyo today.

The prognosis is
in 2 weeks it might be 10.000,
every day.
mainichi.jp/english/articl…
Note:
the 10.000 cases per day really is for #Tokyo alone.

And it´s realistic.
(in ~a week it´s the start of Obon - everyone in #Japan will be heading home for family visits.
And department stores are already found to be hotspots...)
😣
mainichi.jp/english/articl… Image
Pharmacies, post offices, supermarkets, small shops,...

Also in Australia´s #Delta outbreak in #NSW, they are seen as transmission sites.
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
There´s a lot of transmission going on in #NSW:

291 new cases today,
(only 91 safely in isolation).

"A ring of steel won´t work.
Unless you have literally a police officer outside every single household it won´t prevent #Delta from seeping out."
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
A policeman (or at least any sort of official) in front of every housing block,
that´s what´s happening in #Zhengzhou (China).

After the first round of mass PCR screening of the city´s entire population 11 new cases have been found,
(says China).
globaltimes.cn/page/202108/12…
Interestingly,
China brings up another major point:
those outbreaks in #Australia, they happen while there´s a vaccination rate of ~20%.

For China, there are no official numbers. But estimates guess its vaccination rate is ~60%+
globaltimes.cn/page/202108/12… Image
Meanwhile,
#Queensland´s Brisbane #Lockdown works without police guards.
All of their 10 new cases are household contacts to known cases, connected and quarantined.

*IF* it stays like that, the lockdown may be lifted on sunday (after ~a week).
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
Since yesterday,
Bergen (#Norway) has again detected 81 new #COVID19 infections.

Still, it´s mostly young people 13~39 years.
The problem:
many of the infected work as staff in 14 nursing homes, all over the region...
🙄
nrk.no/vestland/81-sm… Image
#Denmark´s SSI comes with news today:

The #Delta variant seems to cause an increase of infections in fully vaccinated people.

Well, it´s not *that* bad: ´full vaccination still protects many individuals from being hospitalized´.
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Just so you know:
according to #Denmark´s SSI vaccination also won´t do magic:

"Fully vaccinated -even if they are not particularly ill- can still infect others.
Therefore, it is important that fully vaccinated (contacts, etc)... are still being tested."
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Also today,
#Denmark´s Health authority has eased #COVID19 outbreak regulations for schools.

As ´so many schoolkids are now vaccinated´,
being a close contact at #school will now require you to come closer than 1m for more than 15 minutes...
🙄
sst.dk/da/Nyheder/202… Image
Ah, yes...
#Germany still says:
if you´re fully vaccinated,
there´s no need to quarantine or test for you,
even when returning from areas with ´high infection risks´ like southern #France.
🤷
2021/08/06
the #Delta variant is surging in all of #France.
All of France? Mais non - (and I don´t have it about that green spot...)

In some of the black/purple areas cases seem to have peaked.

But that only means: hospital numbers still rise.
😕
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
As #Corsica´s ICU is full,
they started medevac flights again.

Yesterday, a severe case of #COVID19 in need of ECMO was transported to Marseille, by army helicopter.
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
While ordinary folks in #France are on holidays, medical staff is called back to work, due to resurgence of #COVID19 hospitalisations.

But hey,
they´ll have a 50% overtime premium
and reimboursement of all vacation not taken due to obligation to work...🙄
After 18 months of #pandemic emergency,
medical staff would urgently need some real holidays...

and the last place I expected to hear ´sorry - we need medical staff back to work right now !´ was certainly...

#Iceland ?!!!
🤔
#Iceland has ~70% of its population fully vaccinated...
That´s an interesting chart:
#Iceland´s current #COVID19 wave started 2~3 weeks ago.

And while the nation´s vaccination rate is ~70%,
the share of infected who were fully vaccinated
is also ~70%
🧐
covid.is/data Image
There is a reason, why #Iceland´s current #Delta wave is infecting so many:

Unlike in previous waves,
many of the infected did not self-isolate, before they received their ´positive´ test results.

(maybe believing their vaccination was a 100% protection)
covid.is/data Image
Just 3 weeks ago,
#Iceland realized a slight uptick in cases (~10 in 4 days).
And they knew how/where the transmissions happened...

There was the judgement:
"that the present rate of infections does not call for stricter rules"
(it surged 3 days later)
🤷
icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2021… Image
The #Delta outbreak in Tokyo (#Japan) is becoming seriously ´unsustainable´:
Fever clinics are overwhelmed with requests.
It may take 2 days wait for a PCR test, even for those with symptoms...

Positivity rate of tests is now ~50%+.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
Unlike many other countries,
Japan doesn´t see "only minor symptoms".

This shows #Tokyo´s number of #COVID19 patients in hospitals (!* =>next tweet).
Today it reached 3,485.

The earlier highest peak was in January, with 3,427.
stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en Image
Due to the surge in cases, #Tokyo had recently changed its hospitalisation practice:
only "severe cases" or those "at risk" were admitted to hospitals.

Others were told to "recuperate at home" and give authorities a call if things deteriorate...
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
It started with one mistake in hotel quarantine in April, that let #Delta escape.
#Fiji is still fighting the spread...

actually: they had to give it up in West-Fiji and switched to mitigation now.
Test positivity 32%,
Daily cases ~1,000.
fbcnews.com.fj/news/covid-19/…
Just as important as "when will it end?"
When did it start/how many?:
#Victoria (Australia) now thinks their current #Delta outbreak might have been imported, ~when their *previous* outbreak had started (but from a separate source)
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
For #Queensland,
the current Brisbane lockdown (around schools) will end today.

The final line under a major #Delta outbreak, after only 8 days...
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
And at the very hour when South East #Queensland / Brisbane will come out of #Lockdown,

Cairns (North Queensland) will enter theirs...
abc.net.au/news/2021-08-0… Image
#COVID19 cases in #Catalonia are decreasing.
ICU´s don´t see much of this effect, yet.
But they see the incoming patients are changing:

It´s not the young "careless" people anymore.
Now it has spread to those who some other young people maybe cared about.
elnacional.cat/ca/salut/uci-v… Image

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More from @KlimaZen

KlimaZen Profile picture
7 Jul 20
As #COVID19 cases are found to spread, #Melbourne (city of ~5 million) tries to contain them by going into #Lockdown.
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"Those who return from international risk areas (out of Germany) or whose Corona-Warning App has alerted them, need to report to authorites"
kreis-vg.de Image
In fact, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's Corona-ordinance really prohibits entry of people from international risk areas AND german risk areas as well.
It's just not prominently featured on their websites.

(Overlooked that myself, hence deleted earlier tweet)
landesrecht-mv.de/jportal/portal… Image
People from #Gütersloh district may have to scrap all their holiday plans anyway...

An official #Lockdown is just being announced for the entire district.
(for one week, as of now)
Read 2556 tweets

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