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23 Jun 20, 2556 tweets, 1939 min read
Vorpommern-Greifswald district (where rejections of #Gütersloh residents took place, yesterday)
has specific rules:
"Those who return from international risk areas (out of Germany) or whose Corona-Warning App has alerted them, need to report to authorites"
kreis-vg.de Image
In fact, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern's Corona-ordinance really prohibits entry of people from international risk areas AND german risk areas as well.
It's just not prominently featured on their websites.

(Overlooked that myself, hence deleted earlier tweet)
landesrecht-mv.de/jportal/portal… Image
People from #Gütersloh district may have to scrap all their holiday plans anyway...

An official #Lockdown is just being announced for the entire district.
(for one week, as of now)
What a confusing #Lockdown statement:
"People may still plan their holidays. But we request them not to leave #Gütersloh district. This will also be controlled. However this may be done..."
"The #Lockdown rules apply to all people who enter #Gütersloh district.
It does not apply to people who come from Gütersloh district and enter other areas"...

(well, unless other areas deny access. We'll see...
International reactions may be interesting, too)
#Lockdown rules for #Gütersloh will be a modified set of pre-deconfinement rules:

1)
 -Contact limitations
-Most indoor activities scrapped
-No picknicks
-Bars closed
-Restaurant visits only with family members
#Gütersloh #Lockdown measures
2)
 -Quarantine will be enforced
-Police will support (just in case)
-translators will be deployed (especially for #MeatPacking workers)
#Gütersloh #Lockdown measures
3)
 -Intensified testing
-All nursing homes tested
-Free testing for all district inhabitants
-representative test campaign to get an overview of district's infections
-All #MeatPacking workers in the entire state will be tested
#Gütersloh #Lockdown measures
4)
 All subcontractors of meat industry will be requested to have their personnel tested as well.
(state-wide)
#Gütersloh #Lockdown measures
5)
 -Medical treatment capacity will be enhanced
-includes ramping up capacities of neighboring districts
(to prepare for a situation where hospitalization would surge)
#Lockdown measures will also apply to a few municipalities in #Gütersloh's neighboring districts.
Reason: many #MeatPacking workers residing there.
As second state of #Germany, #Bavaria now announced it will reject travellers from #Gütersloh (and all other areas with #COVID19 incidence >50)
Meanwhile in #Germany, already 3 states have updated their #quarantine & entry regulations.
They impede entry of visitors from ´high risk areas´, regardless where these areas are (international / national).

(meant to deter #Gütersloh visitors and others)
schleswig-holstein.de/DE/Landesregie…
The #Lockdown area has been updated:

It had been thought the outbreak would be confined to #Gütersloh district and only a few towns of a neighboring district.
Apparently this wasn´t reasonable.
#Lockdown is now valid for entire #Warendorf district as well
die-glocke.de/lokalnachricht…
The city of #Münster (near the #Lockdown area)
has now issued an order:

People from #Warendorf and #Gütersloh will be obliged to wear #facemasks
in all of Münster´s public places
or while working there!
#Osnabrück district (near #Gütersloh lockdown area) just made it clear:

People coming from #Lockdown areas will have to follow their lockdown rules from home,
even when entering Osnabrück district.

"Sorry, no bars, no indoor activities,... for you"
landkreis-osnabrueck.de/der-landkreis/…
This will not make it into international news,
but it should be noted:

after more than 3 months of consistent strain,
the head of Gütersloh´s #Coronavirus emergency task force collapsed.
Yesterday, the day the new #Lockdown was announced.
haller-kreisblatt.de/region/2281176…
#Austria is the first country to issue a #TravelWarning for Germany's state of North Rhine-Westphalia (where #Gütersloh #Lockdown area is placed)
bmeia.gv.at/reise-aufentha… Image
#Austria issued a "LEVEL 5" travel warning for North Rhine-Westphalia. The highest regional alert level, they have.

Encouraging all Austrians to stay away / leave this area.
This warning does NOT ban anyone from this area from entering Austria...
Interesting point in #Gütersloh district´s press conference:
Air inside #MeatPacking plants is typically recirculated.
There´s no fresh air added.

(Germany´s first large outbreak in Heinsberg started in a room with air-#circulation as well.)
Image
Further notes from #Gütersloh outbreak investigation:

"This isn´t to say that air-circulation is the only cause. But it´s one factor for spreading SARS-CoV-2 in enclosed spaces.
Using (HEPA) filters in ventilation -like hospitals do- would certainly help"
rp-online.de/panorama/coron…
While multiple german states harshly reject people from #Germany´s #Lockdown districts or let them pay 150€ for a test,
Austria´s state of #Carinthia is more tourist-friendly:
- they ask those guests to maybe come another date
- they offer free tests
ktn.gv.at/Service/News?n…
"#Church services are not mentioned in the #Lockdown ordinance.
Therefore they are allowed"😇
(argues the catholic church of #Gütersloh area)

vaticannews.va/de/kirche/news…
#Church services are mentioned as one point of transmission, when SARS-CoV-2 wandered from one #MeatPacking plant to another.
It could also have happend at a #restaurant visit.
Or simply by shifting #contractors from one plant to another:
t-online.de/nachrichten/pa…
Finally, a useful act to keep (housing related) #COVID19 case numbers from surging:

Neighboring #Steinfurt district offers to take in infected people from Warendorf / Gütersloh #Lockdown area.
They´d be accomodated in the district´s quarantine housing.

presse-service.de/data.aspx/stat…
#Steinfurt´s quarantine facility is a reused old hospital.
It had been established as a back-up, to provide spare capacity in case of surges in #COVID19 cases (which never happened in this district).
Now it´ll take in infected people from #Lockdown areas.
www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/we…
Huge demand for #COVID19 testing in Germany's #Lockdown areas.

Reason: Summer holidays are starting.
Many holiday destinations demand a fresh negative test. Else they'd reject visitors from "risk areas" like #Gütersloh.
Interesting find from those mass testings of the general #Gütersloh public.
Out of 2.000 results, only 1 has been found to be #COVID19 "positive", so far.

Seems like the outbreak would still mostly be among #MeatPacking workers...
City of #Berlin's bureaucracy at its best:

"Please make sure you'll return from your holidays 14 days before school starts, so that you have time to complete your quarantine, if needed.

Missing school due to quarantine (without a test) would be truancy."
Image
The quarantine for the highrise building in #Göttingen will expire tonight.
That doesn´t mean, all its ~700 residents are healthy.
There have been "only 4 new cases" last week,
so the quarantine will now be for individual persons, not the entire building
goettingen.de/aktuelles/quar…
One of Germany´s #Lockdown areas (#Warendorf district) has dropped below lockdown-levels
(47.9, where 50 would trigger measures again).

Will they now be welcome at their holiday destinations?
Will the scratching and tire-slashing of their cars end, now?
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Outbreak dynamics🚀vs. decision making🐌:

Today, Lower Saxony´s ban on accomodating residents from #Gütersloh and #Warendorf comes into force.

10 days after the #outbreak became known.
Warendorf´s numbers fell below #Lockdown criteria again, today...
Image
Multiple german states reject tourists from #Germany´s #Lockdown region or demand a 14 day quarantine.
Usually, this can be waived by
"a #COVID19 test, not older than 48h".

In normal times, test results take 2-3 days.
It may take longer, now.
#Catch22🤪
University of #Barcelona (Spain / Catalona) tested samples of archived (frozen) sewage water.

They went far back in time. Beyond the current #pandemic.
They think SARS-CoV-2 was present in Barcelona on one peculiar day:
12 March 2019

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
via @FernandoHValls Image
There´s an app for that.
#KeepDistanceRuler
There´s a (prehistoric) app for that.

A museum in Japan hands out 2m long spears, to enhance distancing among visitors.

(It is not intended to poke violators,
it´s a measuring stick.
I think the Japanese are mostly polite enough to use it appropriately)
What a mess.

During the Health Minister´s visit, he said
"there have been 4.100 tests of #Gütersloh´s greater public so far. Only 9 results were positive".

A few hours later, the district came up with their own numbers: "75 new cases had been found".
#Gütersloh district announced the 75 new cases in the greater public were only found due to current mass #testing, since they didn´t feel any symptoms.

Sobering sidenote:
They have lost count of who is doing how many tests.
Testing is going wild, it seems
kreis-guetersloh.de/aktuelles/pres… Image
Clusters of #COVID19 seem to be currently "invisible", in #Japan.
After the end of emergency measures (a month ago), distribution has changed:
Now ~70 % of cases are younger than 40 years!
No immediate surge of hospitalization, but potentially spreading it
Image
The "invisible" clusters - are they showing up, now ?

#Tokyo has 60 new cases today.
75% of them under 40 years old.
And suddenly, many #COVID19 cases are being reported from all over #Japan. Many of them with "unclear origin of infection"...
ImageImage
Test results suggest, the #Gütersloh outbreak is/was not confined to #MeatPacking plant workers.

Numbers in the article below are outdated.
Today, 32 additional cases have been found in "members of the wider public" (not working at the plant)...
Statement from #Gütersloh district:

"The number of cases in those members of the public who are not affiliated to the #MeatPacking plant is rising considerably.
Apparently most of them are asymptomatic. It´s believed they where found due to mass testing."
#Austria has withdrawn its travel warning for #Germany´s entire state of Nort Rhine-Westphalia.
It is only in force for #Gütersloh district, now.
In addition, travellers from Gütersloh will have to provide negative #COVID19 tests, when entering Austria.
vn.at/newsticker/ans…
Something to look out for:
Usually, #Austria accepts #COVID19 test certificates up to 4 days old.
Many news articles mention that for visitors from #Gütersloh, the validity of tests will be just 48 hours.
(applying the same rules as other german states do)
sozialministerium.at/Informationen-… Image
After 3 weeks with absolutely no new #COVID19 case, #Germersheim district (south #Germany) has found 18 new cases this weekend.
They seem to be attributed to a church community.

(And several infected children visited the local kindergarten...)
rheinpfalz.de/lokal/pfalz-ti…
Personnel at the infected children´s (now closed) kindergarten in #Germersheim district has already been tested: all "negative".
Right now, all other children are being tested.
(It´s a voluntary test. And there´s no quarantine for contact children for now)
schwegenheim.de/?Corona-Infos Image
For #Gütersloh, it´s one more week of "#Lockdown".

That´s mostly because of the vast amount of infected #MeatPacking workers, lifting the relevant "7 day incidence" above the magical number "50".
#Warendorf district is "cleared of restrictions" now.
Recent publicated numbers for #Gütersloh indicate:
The #Outbreak occure(d/s) mostly among workers at the #MeatPacking plant.

If numbers for "common citizens" were seen separately, today´s incidence would be 22,5
Combined with #MeatPacking workers: 122,5
die-glocke.de/blickindiewelt…
While #Gütersloh district goes through one more week of #Lockdown, the focus is on #MeatPacking workers.

Currently, 3 facilities are being prepared as temporary isolation housing for ~600 infected workers. They will be separated from non-infected workers.
#Greece´s new testing protocol sounds like fun:

Fill out a questionnaire at home, receive a QR code.
Present the QR upon arrival.
Be surprised wether your code said:
"You´re free to go, welcome !" or
"You´re a risky person. You´ll be tested and isolated"
travel.gov.gr/#/ Image
To be fair,
#Greece´s new test protocol seems to make more sense than before, when they had a list of "risky countries" and randomly picked some arriving travellers for tests...
(Now an algorithm picks testees, based on current outbreak data etc.)
medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-g…
Today´s tests in south Germany´s #Germersheim district revealed 28 infected by a church attributed #COVID19 outbreak.

So far.
About ~400 test results are still pending.
(This area isn´t densely populated, so 67 cases would already trigger a #Lockdown)
wochenblatt-reporter.de/germersheim/c-…
Meanwhile, not far away from Germersheim, in #Karlsruhe (south #Germany):
another church,
another #COVID19 outbreak

22 cases attributed to this church so far.
Tracking isn´t easy - church visitors came from all over Germany (and have returned home...)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Soon after some restrictions were lifted, #Melbourne (AUS) had noticed rising #COVID19 cases again.
They decided to roll out a massive test campaign, to see how big the problem really was.

They tested 93.000 citizens in 3 days
They didn´t like the result.
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo… Image
#Melbourne´s test campaign found 250 formerly unknown #COVID19 cases.
A shock.

Reaction is drastic, now:
300.000 (of the city´s ~5 million) citizens will be under #Lockdown
Again.
For one month.
International flights diverted...
Image
The #outbreak situation in #Melbourne is seen as a "Public Health Bushfire".
800 federal workers and Defence Force are being sent to support local teams.

(the latest reported number of new #COVID19 cases was 81.
For the entire state of #Victoria...)
sbs.com.au/news/hundreds-… Image
So, #Leicester (/ Leicestershire County, UK) is in #Lockdown again, too.
-Shops have to close again.
-Bars, restaurants, hairdressers not allowed to reopen.
-Schools closed.
-Citizens are requested to stay home.
-For two weeks at least.

but why?
12 hours ago,
#Leicester city knew that #COVID19 cases were on the rise. And that there would be some sort of #Lockdown.

Not much more...
Here´s the dodgy thing:
if you´d look at official #COVID19 case numbers,
everything would look fine, for #Leicester...
It seems, UK´s offical #COVID19 website is only publishing part of their actual data.
"Pillar 1" (green) is only tests done in hospitals (for treatment decisions)
What is not reported are the other pillars, like Pillar 2 (red, results from mass testing)
Even #Leicester City´s Mayor´s address to the public stays remarkably vague:

"We, I think, hope
that now with these new measures
we can get on top of whatever is out there"

🙄(that´s not the "we know what´s going on and what we´ll do", I´d like to hear)
It turns out,
#Leicester City's Mayor was being vague, because all the #outbreak information he was given was, well, vague...
(3 days ago)
And as it seems,
the city of #Leicester has still not received the data it asked for, to be able to control the #Outbreak
(even 1 hour ago)
(I'd totally understand if citizens would like to know details):

'The health secretary told BBC Breakfast there had been

"an unusually high incidence" of coronavirus among #Children in #Leicester

since increased testing began in the city 10 days ago.'
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
And then, there seems to be an unusual high incidence in young people between 20 and 30, in #Leicester.

A connection to their workplaces is suspected...
That came as a surprise for everyone -
even to #Leicester police...

They will check on vehicles, leaving the #Lockdown area
(cars, coaches,...)
There´ll be many, as it is still allowed to leave for work.
Meanwhile, in #Tokyo.

Japan´s cluster-busting seems to lose its grip on #COVID19 outbreaks...
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
Holiday destinations have started to reject visitors from #Leicester #Lockdown area.
There´s no "negative test" waiver, like it was finally introduced for #Gütersloh citizens in other parts of Europe.

Even 2 weeks after the #Gütersloh outbreak was detected, the district finds ~25 new #COVID19 cases per day.

It´s unclear if those are from spread in the community
or continued infections inside the #MeatPacking workers´ housings.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
#Gütersloh quarantine for #MeatPacking workers didn´t separate infected from non-infected workers, so far.
They all stayed in their housings together.

Civil Protection now modifyed army residences to enable a separate quarantine for infected workers.
Putting infected & non-infected persons into #quarantine together has a peculiar effect.
(#Gütersloh´s head of district tries to explain to the workers...)
"Some may leave quarantine in 2 days, now.
Some will need to stay longer"
(Note: Usual procedure would be:
When one infected person in a household is released as "healed", the 14 day quarantine for all other household members STARTS
as they were close contacts all the time)

That´ll be difficult to grasp,
even with a translator.
Oh, Switzerland!
(full of surprises)

Suddenly,
Zürich´s COVID19 case numbers are surging.
After ~2 months of relatively ´nothing´...
gd.zh.ch/internet/gesun… Image
I was surprised to see Zurich´s clubs open again (little restrictions), since June 6.
#Zurich was surprised to find (June 27) that their first #Superspreader event took place in clubs (June 21)

One club-goer infected 5 others,
then they went club-hopping
To #Zurich authorities´ surprise,
many (one in three) of the club visitor´s had not registered their real names and contact data.
So contact tracing was difficult.

To my surprise, #Quarantine in (CH) lasts only for 10 days
and is not controlled...
To everyone´s surprise,
a Twitter user pointed out, an internal document (of #Switzerland´s federal health authority) had pointed out earlier, that venues such as clubs were posing a high #epidemic risk, since protective measures would not be applicable
Soon after it became public that clubs were seen at risk of becoming #COVID19 hotspots...
#Zurich Health Authority´s head complained, she wasn´t given this information before.

(replies to her tweet were surprisingly more up to date with global events...)
While #Zurich´s authorities still try to get hold of all contacts from their initial #Superspreader event,
another district (#Aargau) found a #Cluster of 20 infected guests at a bar

Surprise: it´s believed some guests had been infected at the Zurich event
srf.ch/news/regional/…
Surprisingly, the #Aaargau cluster might have a second source of infection:
At least one of the guests at the bar had been visiting #Belgrade (Serbia). Authorities suggest he might have come back infected...

(20 of 100 bar guests tested "positive", now)
aargauerzeitung.ch/aargau/baden/s…
Surprisingly (to me), #Belgrade seems to be a popular party destination.
2 other groups from #Switzerland´s #Grisons district had been partying in Belgrade.
Soon after their return, 6 of 10 were found #COVID19 positive...
srf.ch/news/regional/…
As a result of the surprising re-surge in #COVID19 cases,
#Switzerland´s federal government has now ordered:

- mandatory use of #Masks in all public transport
- mandatory 10 day #Quarantine upon return from "certain" countries

(btw: clubs stay open...)
admin.ch/gov/en/start/d… Image
Meanwhile #Tokyo sees its #COVID19 case number jump to exceptional 107 per day.

They say the whole rise since ~mid June is mostly due to spread in #Nightlife.

The reaction is: more testing.
(btw: clubs stay open...)
How to stir up a storm.
Just by leaving away some part of the information...

Here´s a nice example
(Hint: No, this is *NOT* a warning for all Scots to avoid England)
Here´s some context:
A border area of #Scotland sees an #Outbreak.
Everyone else in Scotland will soon be free to go wherever they like. But this area is asked to keep within a 5 mile radius.
And, yes: not to hop into the next village´s pub (in #England)
For those who´d like to know about the #Scotland - #England border situation, but struggle with scottish pronunciation in the videos
here´s a written text:
@DrEricDing
dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-new…
Today´s 107 new #COVID19 cases in #Tokyo are very alarming.
Only 29 are workers or guests of Tokyo´s nightlife.
For 45, there´s no known source of infection.

Gouvernours of Tokyo and Saitama prefecture are now politely asking to not visit Tokyo at night.
#Zurich´s #Covid19 cases seem to start getting out of hand.
It was now+57 cases in one day.

2 more #clubs affected by outbreaks.
gd.zh.ch/internet/gesun… Image
Surprisingly,
contacts of #Zurich´s club #Outbreaks were told to "avoid unnecessary contacts like crowds, discos and bars", but "quarantine would not be necessary, for now".

They should ask for a test if they had symptoms...
(some do)

Source:
20min.ch/story/corona-f… Image
The surge in (mostly club related) #COVID19 cases is already overwhelming #Zurich´s contact tracer team.

According to this report, they *sometimes* resort to just contacting the initial "spreader" and then leaving it up to him, to inform his contacts...
srf.ch/news/regional/…
#Tokyo´s #COVID19 numbers of the day are annouced.

Preliminary reports were saying
"more than 100"
"more than 120"

The official number now is
124 new cases
~70% are 20-30 years old
Image
#Japan´s government statement on the surging numbers in #Tokyo:

"While hospital admissions are on the rise, the number of severe cases is decreasing.
As 70% of the infected are younger citizens, we don´t see the case for another state of emergency."
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
Meanwhile, a professor in a TV special is arguing that the major threat of a #2ndWave would come from immigrants / foreigners bringing imported cases to #Japan.

(that feature was certainly produced before the current wave of infections became public...)
Image
The virus goes #club-hopping in #Switzerland:
One clubgoer from Aargau infected another one who visited multiple clubs in #Olten, Solothurn district.
360 quarantined there, now.
If others were infected: unclear, yet.
so.ch/staatskanzlei/…
It was suggested that some of #Switzerland's infections had been imported from visitors to #Belgrade.
Now swiss news checked the situation in Serbia and found:

"80% of Belgrade's citizens are believed to be infected"...

EIGHTY PERCENT?!!
srf.ch/news/schweiz/c…
#Belgrade has just declared a state of #Emergency.

"Most infections were at nightclub parties".
So parties now have to stop at 11pm.
😂

Oh, and it's: "~80% of (Serbia's) infections are said to be in Belgrade" (swiss reporter got that wrong, maybe)
Yes, swiss news #SRF have also corrected their mistake (first, then deleted the article).

After all: if 80% of #Belgrade´s citizens had already been infected - what sense would it make to declare a "state of emergency" today?
srf.ch/news/internati… Image
🤔
...
As things turned "back to normal" for a while, a jolly time was had in #Serbia...
even in football stadiums (June 10).
~one week after that match, first reports of new infections amongst fans popped up.
#Switzerland´s National #COVID19 Science Task Force has issued an #Alert:

-Case numbers are increasing exponentially, at a high rate
-Avoid settings with high risk of transmission (such as clubs, discos, bars)
-"we feel urged to ask for immediate action"
ncs-tf.ch/de/policy-brie… Image
#Melbourne´s #COVID19 outbreak seems to be no longer contained.

´A “significant number” of Victoria’s coronavirus cases are spilling into suburbs adjacent to the restricted postcodes.´

7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
Due to increased community spread in #Victoria, Australia´s state of New South Wales has decided to close its border to Victoria.

Last time that happend was during the Spanish Flu #pandemic.
They´re quite serious about closing the state borders...
The #Gütersloh #Lockdown is over (ruled by court).
You may have a lockdown,
to gain time, to organize, for testing, for evaluating the situation.
But once that is achieved (especially if you see parts of the lockdown area have few cases) it needs to end.
ovg.nrw.de/behoerde/press…
Parts of #Austria are having the full palette of outbreaks:

Church (151 cases)
MeatPacking (360 cases)
Schools & Kindergartens

"as we have relatively small, localized structures, there´s no need for #Lockdown
Order to wear masks in public buildings now.
nachrichten.at/oberoesterreic…
To provide a safe and #COVID19-free holiday, is #Greece´s key message in their new tourism campaign.

"Because behind your every ideal experience, there is a complete protocol for your safety in action."
To guarantee a #COVID19-free holiday, #Greece is trying to impose strict border controls.
Some nationals are not allowed to enter Greece (such as visitors from #Serbia, which had declared a "State of Emergency", due to a surge in cases)...
Tourists bring the virus...

Out of #Greece´s 43 declared new #COVID19 cases (this weekend), 36 were found at one border crossing.

(Yes, there are serbian visitors found to be "positive", as well as other nationals. German tourists are in quarantine too.)
As #COVID19 cases are found to spread, #Melbourne (city of ~5 million) tries to contain them by going into #Lockdown.
(The interview features the idea of a dedicated #Quarantine building - that would actually help, I guess)...
"People acting as if the pandemic was over was 'not the answer, it is part of the problem' ".

"The virus had leaked from postcodes already under the stay-at-home orders to other parts of #Melbourne."
(and beyond, it is feared).
Due to #Melbourne's outbreak, neighbouring South Australia is about to completely close it's borders to #Victoria.

(Nearly) no exceptions. And those essential few who are allowed in, will have to wear facemasks the entire time...
3 #university students in #Koblenz (Germany) were tested for #COVID19: positive.
At least 10 contacts then came forward with symptoms, too.
A mass testing of 188 students took place today.
3 dorms are quarantined, now.
#Austria´s Carinthia region worries about ´unruly #Tourists´.
As appeals for responsible behaviour didn´t seem to work,
"#mask-wearing will be mandatory in tourist-hotspots" (sic !).
Even outdoors,
but only from 9pm to 2 am.
ktn.gv.at/Service/News?n…
Sounds like "widespread community transmission"...
#Melbourne
A 250 km long ring of controls around #Melbourne is established.
220 new #COVID19 infections in a day, the highest number ever.
#Tokyo has not explained details, yet.

(Whereas the phrase "citizens are being urged to chose wisely which establishments they visit for nightlife" might be an indication...)
Image
No details from #Tokyo´s city officials, yet.
Meanwhile #Japan´s Health Minister is not worried too much.
"Tokyo is organizing 3.000 dedicated hospital beds for #COVID19 patients, so 200 cases a day may be manageable"
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
While #Tokyo is having a record high of 224 new #COVID19 cases,
#Japan´s government spokesman announces that "restricitions for events will be lifted tomorrow".

It will be allowed to have 5.000 visitors at events (instead of 1.000 before...)
The President of Japan´s Infectious Disease Society is a bit alarmed:

The numbers of cases are not just growing - It is spreading geographically!
And while the new outbreaks mostly were among younger people, older people are being infected now, as well!
#Tokyo´s city government wants to act,
but as they have no legal power to close #nightlife establishments
and asking people to "decide wisely, if they really should go there" didn´t work,
they try another way:

They´ll pay money
for shutting a club down!
straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia…
It´s not that I wouldn´t support #WHO´s studies.

But I don´t want to be an examined case in one of them,
so I:

🔳avoid crowded indoor spaces
🌬️ventilate rooms well, to reduce possibility of aerosol transmission
😷maybe wear a mask

(since February, btw)
#Tokyo's current new #COVID19 case numbers are higher than during the last peak in April.

Still, the government sees no need for big worries, as they still believe that "it's only young people and severe cases are at a low number"...
Actually, the number of hospitalized #COVID19 patients is on a rise in #Tokyo.
(yes, not all of them are "severe" cases)...
Image
#Tokyo's Governor says an increase to 3.000 tests per day was behind the record new #COVID19 case numbers.

I'd say:
243 cases found in 3.000 tests makes for a #PositiveRate of 8.1%!!!

That's a sign things are not as "relaxed" as they used to be before...
Another thing about Tokyo's surging numbers:

Meanwhile, over 50% of the cases cannot be traced to any source of infection.

Looks like it's hard to keep track of developments, again...
stopcovid19.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/en/cards/untra… Image
Over in #Melbourne,
"288, it is a pretty ugly number".

Switzerland:
One player of #Zurich's soccer club immediately canceled training, when he felt light #COVID19 -like Symptoms.

6 other players and 3 staff members were found to be infected, now...
According to Germany´s #RKI Index,
#Sweden isn´t that bad anymore.
But #Luxembourg is not the place to be... (more than 50 new #COVID19 cases per 100.000 citizens last week)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
A week ago, #Luxembourg´s Health Minister already worried about a sudden re-surge in #COVID19 cases.
"It´s the barbecues, family parties,... people misunderstood the relaxation of confinement rules and are taking it to the max..."
"50 cases per day."
msan.gouvernement.lu/fr/actualites.…
This weekend, the situation in #Luxembourg seems to have worsened:
it´s 83 new #COVID cases per day, now....

(and many countries have issued travel warnings for Luxembourg)
wort.lu/fr/luxembourg/… Image
Interesting detail on #Luxembourg´s surging COVID19 cases:
according to #ECDC´s data, this for once seems to be really a case of
"Increase the tests - find more cases"

(While Luxembourg tests like crazy, their #PositiveRate stays at the same (low) level!)
…id19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/#national-noti… Image
These days,
#Luxembourg's tracing unit is processing 300 new #COVID19 contacts per day.
Each contact tracing call takes ~2-3 hours!!!
"every time we succed in convincing a case to isolate at home, we prevent 3-4 new cases from happening"
In Australia,
the current #COVID19 case numbers in #Victoria are still worrying
- a lot of local transmission
- much higher than their first wave

Easy to see, why other states like #NSW want to fence off #VIC, in a bid to stop the virus from returning.
theguardian.com/australia-news… Image
After having 277+ cases per day,
having 177 new cases is causing ´relief´ in #Victoria.

But the infections now have reached into aged care facilities.
As #Victoria seems to be facing a long battle against #COVID19, reinforcement from Australia´s military is about to arrive.

While ~350 military crew are already supporting local authorities, an additional 1.000 troops are being sent now.
Meanwhile, Victoria´s neighbor state #NSW is fearing an #outbreak at one popular junction hotel could have already been spreading across the state.

(actually, the "moronic behaviour" citation is minced at people having dance parties)
(1) Normally, this would be a no-brainer,
but there´s more to it...

#Switzerland´s authorities are now warning:
"Faceshields do NOT protect you from #COVID19!"
gr.ch/DE/Medien/Mitt… Image
(2) We all knew faceshields and facecovers were only helpful in preventing spreading #COVID19 to *others*

But a recent case in a hotel in Switzerland showed:
Those employees who were infected wore faceshields only.
No infection in those who wore ´masks´😷
srf.ch/news/regional/…
#Tokyo´s expert panel has advised to step up to the highest #Corona warning level.
Level 4 means: "community spread is likely".

This comes after the weekly-average of case numbers
and especially the rate of unknown infection sources has risen sharply.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… ImageImage
Local news from south #Germany:
3 kids were infected by their mother.
They went to 3 different schools / kindergarten.

Tests for the close contacts so far found:
infections already spread to one classmate
AND ONE CHILD WHO WAS ONLY SHARING THE SCHOOLBUS!
landkreis-goeppingen.de/start/_Aktuell…
Patchy, sketchy, biased, late:
#Germany's states now (after 3 days) decided on measures with regards to #Luxembourg's surging case numbers.

Luxembourg citizens will have to #quarantine.
Germans (mostly) are exempt.
Daily commuters are not affected at all.
Luxembourg has some arguments, why it deems travel restrictions unfair:

- surging case numbers are a result of the recent Large Scale Test campaign (regular free tests, even to commuters from abroad)
- commuters from abroad make up ~20% of new cases!
Oh,
#Luxembourg reported 163 new #COVID19 cases today.
A steep rise.

Interesting background:
- The number of tests was 12.144 (record)
- #PositiveRate was 1.34%
- 18% of new cases were actually not residents of Luxembourg (most likely: commuters)
msan.gouvernement.lu/en/graphiques-… ImageImage
While Luxembourg´s neighbors are irritated by the large numbers of new #COVID19 cases they find,
#Luxembourg is convinced they are doing the right thing:

The Large Scale Test programme (multiple free tests for all) will be extended for 30 (!!!) more weeks
Oh, oh,
#Tokyo reported a new record number for #COVID19 cases:
(286 cases in one day, #PositiveRate is now at ~6%)

They explain:
Earlier numbers came from ~3.200-ish tests.
But now they increased tests to over 4.600 per day.

(Still: a lot of cases)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
Japan´s second largest city #Osaka sees worrying 66 new #COVID19 cases today.

7 are infected teens
29 are twens
...

There´s no known source of infection for 34 of those cases !

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
There was the idea to promote domestic tourism by giving travel discounts to #Japan's citizens.
As #COVID19 cases surge citizens of & voyages to #Tokyo may now be left out of that plan.
(And #Osaka asks to maybe not apply it to them as well)
Although Australia's #Victoria is already under "Stage 3 #Lockdown", things seem like not being under control:
289 (of a record 317 daily new cases) are not linked to any known outbreak...
Next day, next record:
#Victoria´s preliminary new case number is
428 (up from yesterday´s record of 317).

Only 57 are connected to already known outbreaks.
As #Catalonia detected 1.111 new cases on friday, they issued a "voluntary #confinement" for the greater #Barcelona area (4 million inhabitants).

Seems people aren´t fond of that idea.
Today, ~420.000 cars have left the area (like on ordinary weekends).
#France seems to be quite "irritated" by #Spain´s decision to just request staying at home, but not enforcing it.

France´s Prime Minister already contemplated closing the border to #Catalonia, today.
Due to continuing outbreaks,
#Melbourne will now have a mandatory facecover (mask) rule.
"It doesn't come at an enormous cost to the Victorian economy,
It still allows us to go about our business, and for going shopping for the basics when you need them."
It is said 80% of #Victoria´s new cases are from workplace transmissions.
Like abattoirs or even a law firm, refusing their employees to work from home.
And, apparently, "discouraging staff from wearing masks" is a thing as well...:
In #Victoria:
275 new cases in a day
247 have no known source
Japan's 2nd largest city #Osaka is reporting high case numbers for some days now.
A mobile test station in their most popular entertainment district now found:
1 in 5 tests came out #COVID19 "positive"!
"Young people lose their fear and spread the virus"
As #Tokyo´s nightlife is producing an important part of new infections, there´s a special intervention, now:

The neighborhood watch is visiting all ~300 nightclubs in one night.

To promote antivirus protective measures, of course.
That ain´t no fun.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Japan´s neighborhood watches are a quite "effective" form of social control.
Nothing goes unseen.
This sticker was issued in Hakodate City (Hokkaido):
"函館在住" (Hakodate resident) would spare you some trouble when having the sticker on your car, there.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
The "Hakodate resident" car-sticker is one of many exhibits in Hokkaido´s new "World of Corona" museum.

The idea is to preserve typical "artefacts" (masks, posters,...) of our pandemic period, so that we can look back and wonder about this crazy time...
Luxembourg´s #COVID19-Task-Force did a little simulation...
and found out they´d need to apply *the full set* of available measures *immediately (yesterday)*,
or else #Luxembourg´s ICU´s would be overcrowded by the end of August.
#NoTimeToFiddleAway
researchluxembourg.lu/publications/ Image
The mayor of Fukuoka City (south-west Japan) says
"We see, the second wave has arrived"

Young people are urged to stay away from the elderly.
By the end of this week, all ambulances and rescue helicopters will be equipped with "isolation" stretchers.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
The "isolation stretcher" in Japan´s ambulances is a simple add-on cover to standard stretchers.
Its main focus is to prevent potential contamination of the ambulance´s interior (therefore avoiding the need to sanitize the whole car after every transport)
3 months ago, it was quite common that a city had only one dedicated ambulance for #COVID19 transports.
This example from Ikoma City (Nara Prefecture, Japan) shows how they tried to create some level of "protection" with vinyl sheets...

Yikes!
#Victoria has a record of 484 new cases over night.

3.810 were tested "positive" in the last 2 weeks.
3.400 of them had felt sick,
but continued daily life without isolation.
2.056 of them continued as before, even while waiting for test results!
A family of 4 returned home from summer holidays.🏝️
None of them felt symptoms.

It was the routine #COVID19 test for returnees, initiated by the family dad´s employer, that reveiled:
all 4 had brought the virus to their hometown.
(#Cottbus, east Germany)
"It's an extremely big number"

(366 new #COVID19 cases in #Tokyo, from ~5.000 tests. And 15% of those have no symptoms.)

"I want people to observe basics like
-washing their hands
-avoiding close contacts
and
-not spreading droplets with loud voices"(❗)
"5 days prior to an attempt to #kiss someone,
you should reduce contact to everyone else, wear a N95 mask, fill out a daily questionaire and have 2 tests."
😘😷
Says #Germany´s Occupational Health & Safety standard...

At least this applies to #actors !
medien.bgetem.de/medienportal/a… Image
Germany´s #RKI was very quiet, last month.
But now, they have just issued a very unusual wake-up call:
⚠️
"These days´ rise in new cases is very worrying."
⚠️
festivities
families
workplaces
holidays

have lead to rising (nearly doubled) #COVID19 numbers!
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
A study on Germany´s large #MeatPackingPlant outbreak in #Gütersloh now found:

"Transmission via #aerosols occurred over
more than 8 meters at work.
Housing conditions of workers did not play a significant role"

❗️Transmission via aerosols over 8 meters
helmholtz-hzi.de/en/news-events…
Once a person's test results come in as "positive", they need to be interviewed to find out and warn all their close contacts.
But in #Victoria, ~25% of interviews couldn't be done, because no one answered the phone.
So, they'll have personal visits, now.
A private test provider has been offering (voluntary) #VOVID19 tests at Germany´s Frankfurt airport.
In one month, they took 25.000 tests.
70 of them were "positive".

"What´s worrying: almost all of the positive cases came back from ´non-risk´ countries"
swr3.de/aktuell/nachri… Image
Yoron Island (#Japan)
was some sort of paradise.

It was, on July 20
when this video was uploaded

(note: the background music
is ´epidemic sound´)
On July 21,
#Yoron Island had its first #COVID19 case ever.

A young lady of 20 years was tested "positive" after showing typical symptoms...

yoron.jp/life/pub/detai…
Today, 4 days after #Yoron Island detected its very first #COVID19 case,

the town´s public announcement system informs the 5.000 islanders:

There have been 6 new infections today.
The number of cases is now 29.
Stay indoors.

One of the first infected persons on #Yoron Island was working at the island´s (only) hospital.
There have been hospital transmissions.

New #COVID19 cases are now either staying at home,
or are transported by army helicopters to Amami-Ōshima, ~250 km away
Nasty stuff.

(St Wolfgang, #Austria)
As it is peak tourist season in #Austria,
many hotels are employing loads of young interns.

In idyllic St Wolfgang,
masks are mandatory nearly everywhere.
Except during drinking & eating. Seems that´s how some interns´ "afterwork party" spread the virus.
orf.at/stories/317500…
At first (tuesday), one intern of a hotel in St Wolfgang tested "positive" after mild symptoms.
Then (wednesday) 7 colleagues.
Then (sat morning) 22.
Then (sat night) 44, including a tourist...

The municipality was now asking everyone to stay indoors...
st-wolfgang.ooe.gv.at/DRINGENDE_Info… Image
To avoid the earlier mess of Ischgl´s evacuation, #Austria has a plan for the St. Wolfgang #cluster:
If a tourist tests "positive", he will be transported home by police (not allowed to travel alone).
🙄
~tests for tourists are VOLUNTARY
~results take 48 h
orf.at/stories/317508…
Meanwhile, german press reports
"first tourists abort their visit to St Wolfgang (#Austria´s current #cluster) and leave"...

(I wonder if they´d wait in line for a test, before fleeing the area...)
berliner-zeitung.de/news/corona-au…
Interesting point of view by delegates of tourism and a doctor in #Austria´s #cluster area St Wolfgang:
"(regular) Testing of personnel without symptoms makes no sense - it´s like trying to avoid pregnancy by taking a test..."
🤷🤰
ooe.orf.at/stories/305952…
#Austria´s St Wolfgang #Cluster was only detected when one hotel employee started to show typical #COVID19 symptoms (tuesday).
Probably, by that time at least 22 of her colleagues had already been infected (allegedly without obvious/serious symptoms)...
According to a regional spokesman, test results from saturday's tests found 9 more cases in #Austria's St Wolfgang #cluster.
Making it 53 cases. No indication whether the new cases are employees, residents or guests...
(sunday's results not in, yet)
Press Conference on #Austria´s St Wolfgang #Cluster:

Q: How many contacts are there, and where are they now? In Quarantine?

A: We don´t know yet.
But we don´t think there´ll be a need for emergency measures, since they have dispersed all over Austria...
facebook.com/ooe.gv.at/vide… Image
Yes, during today's press conference they stated they had no knowledge of contacts or cases in St Wolfgang's neighboring towns.
And then came this doctor, suggesting that the neighbors would maybe not test accurately and there'd be clusters everywhere...
It's not directed against Austria (but it comes with a peculiar timing):

#Germany is preparing mandatory #COVID19 tests for returnees from #riskareas.
Those tests will be free.
They will be done upon arrival (~at the airport).
And they'll start next week
New results for #Austria's St Wolfgang #cluster came in tonight:

Out of total 1.145 tests,
62 are "positive", so far.

Meanwhile,
personnel of hotels and a shop in neighboring towns were found affected, too.
("The infected are mostly employees")
orf.at/stories/317523…
Some tourists now come forward with "positive" results,
urging authorities to
*be more open
*communicate the actual risk
*not just blame it on "the interns"

=> acknowledge the risk of spreading infections on a more than local scale
#Austria's St Wolfgang #cluster is now affecting 2 districts. The cases in St Wolfgang's neighboring towns belong to #Salzburg district.
And they have a different approach:
-testing is exclusively focused on trainees in tourism (starts today)
apa.at/news/salzburg-…
It´s getting weird around #Austria´s St Wolfgang #cluster.
Official results say:
62 infected
56 of them are personnel (~40 of them young trainees)
5 are youth from neighboring towns

And only 1 guest.

(but twitter reports about 3-4 guests already...)
Latest addition to the "infected St Wolfgang #cluster guest" list would be:

a soldier, stationed in Salzburg.

He was quarantined as a "close contact" this weekend.
His test results came today:
"positive".
(14 of his comrades now in quarantine)
salzburg24.at/news/salzburg/…
Meanwhile,
companies are getting serious.

"Employees who have been absent for 5 days or longer
will be denied access to the site."

Access cards will be reactivated after a negative #COVID19 test
(or proof of not visiting risk areas)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Austria´s St Wolfgang touristic #cluster neighbor, #Salzburg district´s tests were exclusively meant for young tourism trainees. 36 trainees took part.

But somehow 3 non-trainees got tested, too.
Result:
1 trainee "positive"
3 of the unknown testees too
service.salzburg.gv.at/lkorrj/detail?… Image
Yesterday was the first time all prefectures of #Japan had #COVID19 cases.
Some prefectures (like Osaka, Fukuoka,..) were shocked by new record case numbers.
The positive test rate is now up to 6.6%

And today doesn´t seem to be less alarming.
#Tokyo´s Governour:
"We are facing a critical situation and are on the verge of an explosive increase of infections.
We need to take measures to curb it."
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
#Tokyo´s new countermeasures:
Calling it "SPECIAL warning" now.
Asking citizens to please not go drinking too much.
Bars who reduce their serving time will receive a fancy rainbow sticker to demonstrate their cooperation (and get 200.000 JPY compensation).
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… ImageImage
After yesterday´s record of 367 new #COVID19 cases,
#Tokyo counts 463 new cases today.
The next level of "stark warnings" is now:

"We are almost at the point where declaring a State of Emergency just for Tokyo has to be considered"

www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Meanwhile, #Japan is fearing #Tokyo´s outbreaks have already spilled all over the country.
Experts suggest it is driven by "uncooperative establishments" (like bars and nightclubs).
Offices, public transport and shops were not an issue...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
After 3 weeks of #Lockdown, case numbers are still getting worse.
People calling for stronger measures, while others just don´t care at all.
(#Victoria´s Premier has the job to get everyone on board - and he looks pretty annoyed in this article´s video)
sbs.com.au/news/simply-un…
"If the sacrifice (of #Victoria going into ´stage 4´ #Lockdown) has to be made, they must do that on the condition that this will be the last one - that we aim for elimination of community transition".
#Austria is keeping its "#COVID19 & tourism" information quite intransparent.

"The #cluster in St Wolfgang has now been updated to 75 cases."

(Reading the text carefully, it seems that´s the cases who are still *in* St Wolfgang!
Local inhabitants maybe.)
land-oberoesterreich.gv.at/239389.htm Image
A news report mentions
neighboring district "Niederösterreich" has found 2 more "positive" trainees who were infected in St Wolfgang.

*These cases had already caused a local secondary infection*

All cases will not be counted in St Wolfgang, it seems.
kurier.at/chronik/nieder… Image
Austria has a quite restrictive testing regime:

usually, those who have no symptoms will NOT be tested.
(there were even reports that people who didn´t display all "key" symptoms were not tested...)

It´s about confirmation.
Not about stopping the spread.
sozialministerium.at/Informationen-… Image
Meanwhile #Germany´s southwest state Baden-Württemberg is planning to offer free tests to (de facto) all travellers at designated airports, train stations, highway service areas...

(exciting times ahead - remember Luxembourg´s mass testing=>"#HotSpot")
stm.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/pre…
More details on #Germany´s traveller testing:
-free tests start today
-1 test is free for all travellers within 72 hours of coming from abroad
-travellers from dedicated #RiskAreas will be allowed to have 1 initial test and another free control test later
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/coronavirus.ht… Image
Couldn´t we just spare some of #Germany´s free tests for people in this crowd?
Say: 1 test before the rally today.
Then another test at the next rally (if there is one).

That would be really interesting. It would bring up data in place of agitation.
After several requests to maintain hygiene rules showed no sufficient result,
#Berlin's police filed a charge against the rally's organizer.

They say the organizer then aborted the rally.
The rally's motto was "#Corona is over".
The #Netherlands seem to have a problem.
New #COVID19 cases per day have doubled within a week.
(~430, today)

And they made out a culprit:
the young folks.
"1 in 3 doesn´t care about #Corona rules"
rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederla…
Rotterdam has ~a quarter of Netherlands´ new #COVID19 cases (125)

The city says
"students hesitate to get testet,
see quarantine as annoyance and
have problems with health authorities doing contact tracing"

So the mayor sent them a "motivating letter":
rotterdam.nl/nieuws/brief-a… Image
It´s not all about students.
(~50% of the #Netherlands´ new cases are in age group 20-40, another ~50% in age group 40-60)

So some cities like Amsterdam, #Rotterdam, are introducing a rule that makes #facemasks mandatory at certain places / certain times
rotterdam.nl/nieuws/mondkap…
An infectiologist in Paris came up with an idea:
"Why don't we just let young people infect themselves among each other? They just have to stay away from their parents & grandparents!"

Another one replied:
"That's what Sweden had in mind. It did not work"
Australia's state of #Victoria is expected to go into a drastic #Lockdown mode very soon.
It's not just because of the high number of new cases.
It's because of the high number of cases where a source of infection is still unknown...
"Under current stage 3 measures behaviour it would take 6 months to stem the spread of the virus in #Melbourne."

Victoria´s Premier has just announced
Stage 4 #Lockdown for Melbourne

And it´s a real lockdown, combined with a curfew at night.
One of the reasons for #Melbourne´s drastic lockdown is:
"people simply couldn´t remember all the places they have been to, where they might have contracted the virus"

"we think if we limit visits to places to just the nearest supermarket, it would help".
Due to #COVID19, Victoria now has declared a State of #Disaster.
"This will give our police additional powers to make sure people are complying with public health directions".

(that´s the second time in history,
after the bushfires earlier this year)
dhhs.vic.gov.au/updates/corona…
It comes fast.
It started 3 days ago, with people returning from holidays.

Germany´s city of #Offenbach (near Frankfurt) has now reached a level of new #COVID19 cases where they have to involve the state ministry´s task force ("Level 3 incidence").
hessenschau.de/gesellschaft/a…
According to city of #Offenbach, most new cases came from:
*returning travellers from the Balkans, etc.
*a bus excursion to visit a cheese factory in the Netherlands

and
*cases with unknown source of infection.

"It´s the highest case number we ever had"
offenbach.de/rathaus/rathau… Image
#Offenbach's mayor posted the city's current #COVID19 case curve.
Showing the sudden impact.

But contact tracing seems to work:
"Many of those who are getting sick are those who we managed to already quarantine (before showing symptoms)"

Image
In #Melbourne,

"There´ll be enough for people to get what they need.
Not necessarily what they want, but get what they need..."

Some industry is shut down alltogether,
during the #Lockdown.
Image
Supermarkets in #Melbourne have implemented restrictions to avoid shelves getting stripped empty by #Lockdown-anxious customers.

Another measure: converting stores to (online) click and (drive in) collect hubs.
More details on Germany´s #Offenbach outbreaks:

"8 citizens had participated in a bus excursion to visit a cheesefactory in the Netherlands and got infected. After their return, they infected 7 family members".
offenbach.de/leben-in-of/ge… Image
Another detail from the #Offenbach outbreaks:
"Many (non-infected family members) are living together in quarantine with infected persons, being at high risk to become infected as well..."
"But that would pose no threat to the public"

(🤔Is this "acceptable collateral damage" ?) Image
Just like they said:
"in quarantine, non-infected family members are at high risk of becoming infected as well"
#Offenbach reports an infected family,
including an 8 month infant
and the 4 year old, who was attending #kindergarten...
(contacts quarantined)
offenbach.de/leben-in-of/ge…
#Japan´s argument so far was
"No need to worry much, it´s the young ones and they don´t even need hospital visits"

Recent data shows
hospital admittance surges:
Tokyo has a ´decent´ 5-fold increase.
Aichi pref. sees 60-fold increase (from 3 to 195) !
Image
A month after stage 3 restrictions came into force,
2 weeks after masks became mandatory
to try and stop the outbreaks in Melbourne,
Victoria sees new record #COVID19 numbers
(cases and deaths).

(Is it because too many didn´t take rules seriously enough?)
Oh ...
#Germany has just declared Belgium´s province of #Antwerpen to be a #COVID19 "Risk Area".

Meaning: if you´ve been there, you´ll need to show a "negative" test or quarantine for 14 days upon entry to Germany.
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Actually, Germany´s updates are late...
Antwerp / #Antwerpen had already reacted to rising case numbers with a mandatory rule for masks anywhere (even outdoors) and a curfew from midnight to 6 a.m.

Today, they started to relax these measures a bit
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020…
Oh, no.

Some students booked a graduation trip to #Croatia.
On their way back, the first ones started to show #COVID19 symptoms.
9 students from one town have already tested "positive".

But participants came from all over #Germany.
There´s more to come.
filstalwelle.de/shortnews/2020…
4 days ago, 2 other students from #Bavaria had tested "positive" as well, after returning from a graduation trip to #Croatia.
(Not known if this is related to today´s report of 9 cases)
rosenheim24.de/bayern/corona-… Image
#Croatia had just recently launched a regional #COVID19 map.

They claimed:
"the situation in the coastal tourist destinations is particularly good / better than in the safest EU member states"...
udrugaturizma.hr/covid-19-info/… Image
6 (out of a group of 11) tourists from #Austria have been found to be #COVID19 infected, after returning from #Croatia´s island of Pag (usually a popular party destination).

(🤔Were they infected during their stay or while travelling?)
tt.com/artikel/172081…
The 9 #students who came back "positive" from #Croatia,
already caused 53 contacts to be quarantined in their hometown in #Germany.

Now it turns out they didn´t wear masks during most of the bus-trip and during their stay
(german health authority says).
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
A wave of anger is raging now, in #Germany:
towards the students, who supposedly didn´t care.
and towards the german travel agency who apparently claims it´s none of their business how their guests behave (they don´t see any need to take consequences...)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
👍#Luxembourg does quarantine controls.
👎They found out, many are breaking #quarantine.
👍They found out where they have been.
👊💥"An increasing number is breaking quarantine to take holiday travel abroad, despite a positive test"...
gouvernement.lu/de/actualites/… Image
A #COVID19 outbreak at a nursing home in the #Netherlands left 6 dead, 17 of 21 inhabitants (and 18 personnel infected).

Despite strict visitor regulations
and surgical masks for personnel.

An internal #RIVM report suggests "it was the #aircon"...
dutchnews.nl/news/2020/08/v…
6 dead.
35 infected.

~"We found RNA. It´s like solving a crime.
We now think: the killer was the #aircon"

eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/vertrouwe…
Oh...
the deadly "aircon" was a new, sophisticated, energy efficient ventilation system.
It only added fresh air to the room when CO2 concentrations exceeded 1.000 ppm.

(at other times recirculating air, to prevent heat/cool loss)
eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/vertrouwe… Image
Meanwhile, dutch #RIVM have renewed their #COVID19 prevention #ventilation guidelines:
At home:
"Keep windows open 24 hours a day"
"Even in Winter, keep ventilating as much as possible"

(scarfs & sweaters will be THE thing to have!
👉Start knitting now!)
lci.rivm.nl/ventilatie-en-… Image
An update on #Croatia´s party island of #Pag:
meanwhile, 10 german students have tested "positive" after returning home.

And #Italy´s students like to go there as well:
Two 18 year old girls of an organized party trip to Pag came back "positive".
corrieredelveneto.corriere.it/padova/cronaca…
📢"Due to extreme demand,
our local drinking water supply is collapsing.
Get your emergency water ration at the fire station!"🚨

(A side effect of #Coronavirus:
as many spend their holidays at home, water usage is much higher than in "normal" years)
ndr.de/fernsehen/Durc…
The mayor of #Lauenau (Germany´s first town declaring a collapsed drinking water supply) explains:
"our feed from the #water wells is still normal,
(despite recent drought)
its really the high demand that´s overwhelming our supply"
ndr.de/nachrichten/ni…
Out of the blue.
After 102 #COVID-free days
4 connected cases appear in #Auckland, NZ.
There's no known source.

Level 3 #Lockdown will come into force immediately.
The #Netherlands are reporting a rising trend in cases (56%, compared to last week!)

It´s mostly the young ones (20-39 years).
They´re getting infected "at home" or, a nother rising trend: at parties.
Image
Dutch Disease Center #RIVM wants to put something straight:

"Some had the impression we were telling people to avoid #Rotterdam - that was not correct.
We want you to avoid crowded places!
Which goes for Rotterdam and other crowded cities and places..."

Image
This morning #NewZealand learned that 2 #COVID19 infected persons had stayed for multiple days in a holiday resort, while having symptoms.

(They are two (very) young family members of NZ's latest Auckland #Cluster)
The #Auckland family #Cluster is already (probably) spreading.
4 more "probable cases" have been found. 2 from the same family and 2 family members' co-workers.
("probable" means: they do have typical symptoms and they were close contacts)...
rnz.co.nz/news/national/…
Oh,...
A new Health & Safety rule by #Germany´s Labor Ministry states:

"Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 happens PRIMARILY and with great effectivity via #Airborne droplets (#AEROSOLS)..."

(it´s going to have some serious effect on existing measures, I guess)
bmas.de/DE/Presse/Meld… Image
From #Germany´s new "#Corona Health & Safety Rule":

Effectiveness of room #Ventilation can be evaluated by checking #CO2 levels.
Normally, a CO2 level of 1.000 ppm would be acceptable.
During the epidemic phase, this level should be lower / kept as low as possible... Image
Here's a little test I did:

I hate aircon, so I left windows tilted-open today (yes, it was 35 C)
at noon, I closed windows & door of the standard office room (only me in the room, today). Aircon on, cosy 26 C...

Within 1.5 hours
CO2 concentration rose from 500 to 800 ppm !😕 Image
New Zealand´s #Auckland cluster is spreading.

1 Infected person (worked in cold storage warehouse)
-> infected 3 colleagues, there
-> they then infected 7 of their family members at home

(all cases linked to the initial #Cluster,
meanwhile 13 new cases)
#Auckland cluster:
"A #COVID19 positive person visited an aged care facility"

Why would someone do this?
Because they had no clue they were infected.

It happened one day before symptoms showed...
😧
dlvr.it/RdXlt3
That kind of detailed #ContactTracing data,
made public, is impressive...

(#Auckland #Cluster)
(hands up, who remembers what he did 5 days ago?!)

nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/articl… Image
A group of 8 young germans spent #party holidays on Croatia's #Pag island.
They came back to Germany, unknowingly infected.

They then continued partying in Germany:
Out of ~40 party guests,
24 are infected now.

(Note: it happened all within legal limits)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
New Zealand's #Auckland cluster now:
-more cases among colleagues in a finance office
-more cases in the cold storage warehouse
-spread into another region (a stage 3 #Lockdown for entire North Island now suggested)
-a church might be involved, too...
A mystery:
It seems the first known case of New Zealand´s new outbreak was the family dad, who works in a cold storage warehouse.

He had no history of travelling abroad.
But somehow he got the virus.
And it´s a strain that was never detected in NZ before
Another group of students from Germany is back from their party trip to Croatia´s Pag island.

3 of 23 became infected during their trip.
At least - there´s currently no way to enforce testing for all 23, since (for Germany) Croatia is still no "risk area"
zvw.de/lokales/fellba…
Croatia is seeing "all green" for #Pag party island as well

(maybe because typical #party goers don´t stay long enough - they show first #COVID19 symptoms / receive positive tests when arriving back home, so their case is counted in their home country...)
croatiacovid19.info Image
Croatia´s tourism dept. seems quite "creative" in advertising the country as "#COVID19 safe"

They said "Croatia is on a list of recommended destinations" in Germany.
Actually, there´s no such list,
it´s just that they weren´t on the travel warning list.
udrugaturizma.hr/covid-19-info/… Image
Now it seems,
#Croatia´s tourism tactics might be facing a grim reality:

as even Croatia´s local #COVID19 cases have surged to record numbers for 3 days in a row,
neighboring countries are introducing measures to protect themselves.
nytimes.com/reuters/2020/0… Image
It seems developments in a small group will now affect all of Croatia´s tourism.

The surge in cases seems to come from young people and
"two thirds can be linked to bigger gatherings on the Adriatic coast"
(that´s where the typical party locations are.)
seenews.com/news/croatia-c… Image
In search for the source of the new #Outbreak, New Zealand has now ordered tests of all people who had been to the North Island´s major #ports within the last 4 weeks(!)

For Tauranga port, this accounts for ~6.000 people...
port-tauranga.co.nz/covid-19-testi… Image
New Zealand´s new #COVID19 testing order actually gives port workers a deadline of 3 days to get tested.

(That´s for all people who have been to the ports of Tauranga and Auckland,
within the last 4 weeks)...
legislation.govt.nz/regulation/pub… Image
As the current #Outbreak´s virus strain was never detected before in New Zealand
and the first person known to have caught it there was a worker in a #ColdStorage warehouse,

one investigated path is:
was it brought in via goods from #Melbourne (AUS)?
smh.com.au/world/oceania/…
12 new #COVID19 cases found in New Zealand over night.
They all are connected to the #Cluster in #Auckland.

One of them is a university student...
Meanwhile, New Zealand´s idea of mass #testing port workers turns into a mess.

-no one understands why they should be tested
-Auckland #port testing site is overwhelmed
-there´s not even a testing site ready in #Tauranga port

No way to meet the deadline.
Image
Tauranga Port has an update on the tense testing situation:
"Resources are limited so testing will be by appointment only"

"You can continue to work while waiting for test / test results"
"No penalties if you don´t meet the government´s deadline"
🤔
port-tauranga.co.nz/update-on-covi… Image
The amount of chaos the "port worker mass #testing" is causing becomes tangible by this press release of #Tauranga region´s health authority:

~#Port workers, please do not overcrowd general practices, they are for people with real symptoms !
covid19.bopdhb.govt.nz/updates/reassu…
Oh! They really found an infected worker at #Tauranga Port (NZ)!

No, not via the ordered mass testing (it only started today, there and results may take a while to come in...)
No - he had #COVID19 symptoms and already got tested a couple of days ago.
Oh! The infected worker at #Tauranga Port is connected to the #Auckland cluster !

Ah, no - he´s not the source of all infections.
He somehow became infected by one person of the #Cluster...
nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/articl…
Call that an inter-generational conflict:

After finding that most of #Slovenia's new #COVID19 cases are young people who had been partying in neighboring #Croatia,
Slovenia is now discussing the idea to

*selectively #Quarantine the age group 15 - 35*

thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/i…
Melbourne's current outbreak started with a family of 4 who returned from overseas on:
May 9.

Hygiene protocols in their quarantine hotel were botched.

By mid-June, 17 staff & contacts were "positive".

The virus then made its way out into the community.
#Germany´s Disease Centre #RKI has issued a new #Aerosol risk assessment:
🟩In case of loud speaking, singing, laughing, there´s a significant transmission risk...
🟨indoor: even with 1.5m distancing⚠️
🟦outdoor: under 1.5m, when wearing no face cover
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Today, #Germany´s new #COVID19 HSE ruleset might come into force, giving employers the choice between:
distancing of 1.5m
or installing PVC screens
or let employees wear face masks.
bmas.de/DE/Presse/Meld…
#France has announced they want wearing #masks to become mandatory in ALL workplaces
(😷shared among 2 persons or more😷).

No matter the distance
No matter if there are PVC screens

(reason: ~it´s about aerosols, they drift everywhere)
bfmtv.com/economie/le-po…
Forensic style testing has been performed in a cold storage warehouse in #Auckland.
Results now suggest, that New Zealand´s recent #Outbreak was NOT caused by deep freeze goods...

(hey, y´all can stock up on frozen pizzas again!)
Just as you thought you could have a lazy lockdown, with frozen pizza and as little physical activity as possible...

New Zealand comes up with the next scary news to screw your plans:
"~Using the lift might give you #COVID19."

newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/…
If you think,
someone in New Zealand is having a go at destroying all your privileges and restrict your freedom to do whatever you like...

You´ll be happy to hear, that THIS one isn´t a big deal:
Just don´t flush the urinal (haha, like you ever did...)
South Korea sees itself in a whirl of outbreaks: churches, a large rally, coffee chain, sports facility, denial of contact data
"if the country fails to trace contacts, it may face serious virus situations similar to those in the United States and Europe."
Currently, #Croatia sees a drastic surge in #COVID19 case numbers.

in Dalmatia region alone:
153 new cases over night,
incidence of 82.52 active cases per 100.000 (croatian) inhabitants.
a second index, counting all tourists as "population" is 56.62
croatiacovid19.info Image
"A record number of newly infected, and most are young."
“The worst mistake was granting nightclubs permission to work and be a source of infection. We should have removed that permission not just because of outside pressure, but to protect our citizens,”
"#Masks alone will not be enough"...
One week ago, belgian (& EU) Capital #Brussels realized they have surging #COVID19 cases.

The only response then was:
masks became mandatory in public.

Experts warned, "this doesn't stop infections in private life"...
tijd.be/politiek-econo… Image
Indeed,
while #Antwerp had managed to bring its #COVID19 incidence down (with masks, curfew and some #lockdown measures),
one week of "wearing masks in public" didn't help much in #Brussels - they stick out as "red zone", with still growing incidence.
Seeing that #Brussels' 7-day incidence has now surpassed the "magic" number of 50 new cases per 100.000 inhabitants,

#Germany has now declared Brussels to be a #COVID19-"Risk Area".

-> travel warning
-> mandatory quarantine / test for returnees.
(there were speculations, #Germany would hesitate to declare EU Capital #Brussels a #COVID19 Risk Area,
as
-Germany has EU presidency at the moment
-a meeting with a multitude of EU representatives was scheduled in Berlin, next week.)

tagesschau.de/investigativ/n…
Today, 6 months after the Virus came to #Bergamo (Italy),
5 months after the worst day saw 715 new cases and 251 who passed away,

today is the first day,
with zero recorded new #COVID19 cases in the province.
South Korea seems to be caught in a spiral of:
🔃surging case numbers,
leading to drastic measures (especially on churches),
which provoke large protests against measures,
that are in turn "causing more infections"...🔃
South Korea resorts to harsh #COVID19 measures.

In #Seoul, masks have to be worn in public.
Any form of in person church meeting is banned.
For restaurants and venues, a single violation will result in immediate two-week suspension of operations.
News from #Lufthansa:

you´ll be accepted with NO #mask on a flight...

if
- you present a fresh negative #COVID19 CPR test
- and a medical certificate that you´re unable to wear a mask, but still fit enough for the flight...
lufthansa.com/de/en/faq-mout… Image
Spain's Capital #Madrid seems to run into deep problems:
19.382 new cases in 4 days, since friday...

(I imagine it must be shocking and frustrating,
FH Valls even needs to repeat it in his tweet...):

The director of #Madrid's Emergency Center warns:
"if the infections don't suddenly stop rising, Madrid is going straight into #lockdown, in the coming days"

9 experts replied to the question "Why is #Spain being hit again by #COVID19?"

They all essentially say “We wanted to get back to normality too quickly”.
But there´s more to it. Every specialist adds his personal view on: schools, family life, economy...
english.elpais.com/society/2020-0…
Bavaria´s entire culture is rooted in #Beer.

So one can hardly imagine, this threat is real:
"#Munich citizens - if you don´t get your act together and keep #COVID19 infections below 35 (new cases/100.000 inhabitants per week), BEER SALES WILL STOP!"
🍺😮
It´s not clear, how #Munich´s #BeerBan will work.

But it´s said to be a dynamic response:
each they, the local #COVID19 incidence surpasses 35,
beer sales will stop at 9 p.m.,
consumption will be banned outdoors.

(I see panic buying and smugglers ahead.)
sueddeutsche.de/muenchen/coron…
Sounds like a unique development in #Auckland:

test more,
find less cases

monday
4434 tests -> 7 positive
tuesday
8559 tests -> 5 positive
New Zealand thought they might best go ahead and stamp out the #Auckland outbreak now.

A mass #testing campaign started today.
They have multiple locations ready, able to process 10.000 tests per day.

Problem is:
No one likes to come.
(~100 tests done)
Just stumbled upon #Norway´s peculiar view on

#masks vs. #distancing

"Distances of 1 m or more reduce the risk of infection by an estimated 80 %.

Face masks used in the population only reduce the risk by approximately 40 %"
🤔
fhi.no/en/news/2020/r… Image
How bad is the idea to reuse (potentially contaminated) masks ? Maybe not as bad as it sounds....:

"Bottom line:
Under the room-temperature conditions in this study, the COVID-19 virus lost
50% of infectiousness after 78 minutes and
99.9% after 13 hours."
Some companies in #France are now collecting used #masks to #recycle them !
😷♻️
First they come into a 7-day "quarantine", to let their potential contamination "die off".
Then they will be shredded and moulded into new parts for faceshields.
Since this morning, 8 a.m.,
everyone, anywhere in #Paris is obliged to wear a #mask in public.

-pedestrians
-cyclists
-scooterists...

Everyone? No.

The only place you don't need to wear masks is:
inside a car 🚗
(even if it's crowded with passengers).
paris.fr/pages/le-port-…
Apparently,
the #mask obligation for #Paris has just been clarified.

Those who practise "physical activities" on a bicycle or by running will not be obliged to wear a mask.

(Hmmmnn...
what if they stop at traffic lights, next to non-physical-actives??)😄
leparisien.fr/societe/masque…
Next region of #France to announce a (rather strange) #Mask obligation is "Bas-Rhin (67)", at the german border.

Masks will be mandatory from tomorrow, for one month.
Only for pedestrians (NOT car passengers!) in cities with more than 10.000 inhabitants.
The Bas-Rhin departement of #France sees reason to act on #COVID19:
They say their regional #Incidence is currently
⚠️doubling every week⚠️
2 weeks ago:6
1 week ago:16
this week: 31

"It´s mostly young folks - asymptomatic, unknowingly spreading the virus"
bas-rhin.gouv.fr/Actualites/Cov… Image
Ohhhhhh hohohooooo noooooo
(feeling for all #Munich citizens):

It was just announced that
despite all efforts,
the "critical incidence barrier" of 35
was broken. It´s 35.27 today.
This means:
A #BeerBan IS IN FORCE! NO BEER IN MUNICH!
(at least at night)
muenchen.de/aktuell/2020-0…
Fernando de Noronha, an island off #Brazil´s coast has special restrictions (environment rules, tourist limits) to keep their paradise safe.
🏝️
Tomorrow, they´re going to let #Tourists back.
One condition:
You need to prove, you already had #COVID19 !
noronha.pe.gov.br/index.php Image
Actually, Fernando de Noronha´s plan is more sophisticated:

to prevent people with reinfections coming to the island,
tourists will need to provide a recent ELISA test (max. 90 days old), or CPR test (min. 20 days old).

noronha.pe.gov.br/comAcontece.ph…
The mayor of #Sutri (in #Italy, just north of Rome)
wants to issue penalty fines to everyone who "wears a #mask without necessity".

"People eat (for long periods) without masks - so it´s ridiculous to put them on when leaving the table"
😷🤔🙄
facebook.com/11068618626720…
If you think about blasting through a red traffic light in #Sutri, claiming that you "have been driving for hours on the highway, so it´s ridiculous to stop when a traffic light turns red"...

Forget it.
Sutri is a tiny town.
They have no traffic light.
And no highway.
In #France, a group of #COVID19-victims is seeking legal action against mandatory #masks outdoors (only in certain towns, many exemptions).

They argue that "with all the random outdoor mask wearing/exemptions people just get confused.
Indoor is important"
Turns out that the "Association of COVID Victims" in #France is not (just) about people being sick with #COVID19, but people being sickened by french COVID rules...
So it's a wild mix of interests.
COVID rules (and their discussion) can become quite absurd.
With mask: the lawyer who is fighting against the rule to wear masks outdoors (in parts of #France).
No mask: a doctor, justifying he doesn't need to wear a mask indoors, but people outdoors do
😷
Mayors in #France's "Bas-Rhin" departement have also opposed the prefectural rule to impose outdoor mask wearing in their cities.
(they weren't consulted and "other measures would be more helpful"). Controls will mostly be by federal, not local police.
The campaign against "outdoor masks" has a first "success":
A court ruled, prefecture AND city of #Strasbourg need to better specify (confusing) rules for outdoor #masks.

They now think of "maybe making masks mandatory only at certain times of the day"...
Ah,
the mayor of Sutri (#Italy), who is said he wants to fine everyone who is 'unnecessarily' wearing #masks (even indoors) seems to favour the court decision in #Strasbourg.

"#Japanese may be the safest #language when it comes to preventing the spread of #COVID19."

(at least that´s what a canadian magazine is making of a russian study of SARS among tourists in the year 2000)
healthing.ca/diseases-and-c…
The claim that Japanese was a "more #COVID19 safe language" had already been made back in May.
It even was on national news...

(but that claim didn´t hold long)
A study claims, Japanese is a relatively #COVID19-safe language, since it doesn´t make much use of a strongly pronounced "P".

Here´s bad news:
#Japan´s (in)famous
"Pen-Pineapple-Apple-Pen"
performer Pikotaro is back!
And he´s doing a song with Pikachu !
Image
There's news that #France wants to reduce duration of self-isolation down to 7 days
"for those infected by #COVID19 AND their close contacts"...
#Germany is talking about reducing #isolation down to 5 days.
But mind the details:
-it's 5 days after a person *started to show #COVID19 symptoms*
-it might also apply to asymptomatic persons in clusters, but with a final clearing test after 5 days.
#France is seeing a massive resurge of #COVID19 cases.

Many said: "Yes, but look at the hospitals - the beds are empty. It´s just the young ones, they don´t get sick"...

It took a while,
but now places in intensive care units start to fill up.
(example from one hotspot): Image
In Bouches-du-Rhône (one of #France´s hotspots),
they had 70 ICU places reserved for #COVID19 patients.

Those places are filling up now.
Still 20 left. But they say they´ll have to make place for more (i.e. stop with other treatments)
laprovence.com/article/sante/…
The hospitals of Bouches-du-Rhône are calling for
"help from the public".

"in the last 24 hours, our ICU capacities are coming under stress - help to keep those places free, follow hygiene rules!"
There´s definitely something starting in southern #France.

Suddenly, more and more #COVID19 patients are being rushed into hospitals´ ICUs.
It´s not the young ones. It´s those above the age of 50.

(#Dejavu: Young ones come later, when ICUs are full)
geodes.santepubliquefrance.fr/#bbox=-1430540… Image
The European Parliament doesn´t want to make their usual move to Strasbourg (#France, Bas-Rhin).

I guess it´s not only that Bas-Rhin has been declared "#COVID19 Risk Zone"
(their incidence is ~40-60,
#Brussels´ incidence is ~70)
It´s about quarantine.
Image
And then there´s that mask-wearing dispute in #France´s Bas-Rhin departement.

Some activists felt the rules were "too complicated" and sued the prefecture. A court ordered the rules needed to be clear.
Result:
new rules (57 pages)
Different in every town.
It seems,
the current surge in hospital / ICU admissions in southern #France was initiated ~6-8 weeks ago.

That's when the age group 20-29 started to get increasingly infected.
After 3 weeks it percolated into every other age group.
After his warning (3 days ago) that free dedicated #COVID19 places in hospitals / ICU are becoming scarce,
the President of #Marseille´s hospitals notes, that they are practically full, now.

"It´s an exponential increase"
Will wearing masks bring a great relief for Marseille´s constrained #COVID19 hospital situation?

Well,
#Marseille had ordered to wear masks 4 weeks ago, in some areas.
As that didn´t help much, #masks became mandatory everywhere in the city, a week ago.
Today, #Germany´s railway #DeutscheBahn published a study report (tests were done in July):

Their train attendants seem to have a much lower risk of contracting #COVID19 (despite loads of contacts),
than their colleagues in maintenance jobs!
...
🚆#DeutscheBahn study found,
that ´only´ ~1.3% of train attendants were/had been infected with #COVID19.

Among🛠️maintenance workers, infections had been much higher (~3%).

Explanation: attendants wear their masks😷
Most (80%) maintenance workers didn´t.
deutschebahn.com/resource/blob/… Image
#DeutscheBahn study accidentally stumbled upon another interesting point:

Could it be, that a vacciantion against influenza would also help a bit against #COVID19?
(They´ll look more into detail in a second study in October)
deutschebahn.com/de/presse/pres… Image
The strain on #Marseille´s ICUs could be more critical than during the first wave:

During lockdown, hospitals could concentrate on #COVID19 treatment.
Today, France is coming out of holiday season.
ICUs are full with accident victims, planned surgeries...
In the coming 2 weeks, #Marseille´s hospitals plan to open 17 new ICU beds for #COVID19 cases.

(they also say, critical #COVID19 cases doubled within one week and are at 23 right now. Hope they don´t double again...)
With some 10 additional beds, immediately available, #Marseille will have ~25 more #COVID19 ICU beds in 2 weeks.

"The big worry is:
our ICUs are already 95% full with non-COVID patients"

Sudden spike in #COVID19 cases in the Czech Republic.

From tomorrow on, masks will have to be worn indoors. Everywhere in the country.

#Prague is listed as "Risk Zone" by Belgium (and by Germany, since 2 hours ago...) requiring quarantine/test.
english.radio.cz/face-masks-ret…
A survey in USA found:
"frequent use of public transport: 4 times more likely to have been infected than those who never used it.

Visiting a place of worship: 16-fold increase in risk.

👉Social distancing was associated with a 10-fold decrease in risk."
My mind struggles to grasp those division lines that seem to be relevant in the US.

Not wearing a mask as a privilege?
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar… Image
Just a few days before the start of the new semester, 23 students of SciencePo(litiques) elite university in Reims (#France) have reported #COVID19 symptoms.

The semester will start online only. University buildings will now be closed and disinfected.
ouest-france.fr/sante/virus/co…
Following 23 students self-reporting having #COVID19 symptoms, health authorities in Reims, #France now prepare for testing all 1.300 students.

(Their local incidence was already far above "Alert" level last week... that might skyrocket, now)
grand-est.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
#COVID19 case numbers are surging in #France.
"They might double in 2 weeks", says national health authority.

And all those cases have #contacts who need to be traced and quarantined.
With now over 120.000 contacts per week, that´s similar to a #Lockdown.
Image
To keep up with contact tracing, #France has just announced they will employ 2.000 additional contact tracers.
With growing #COVID19 case numbers, #France would feel a significant impact by quarantine / isolation alone.

To compensate this, the isolation period was shortened.
Instead of 14 days it´s now 7 days (at least).
That´s only for those WITH (mild) symptoms!
ameli.fr/assure/covid-1…
#France:
"Those who are now coming into intensive care, are the same as in March: aged people" - "This shows we don´t have a ´Maginot defence line´. Even if it starts with young people, the virus will inevitably affect our most vulnerable ones"
This is the history of #COVID19 in #Spain (so far).
They always publish accumulated case numbers before the weekend. So this friday´s record number of 12.000 new cases needs to be taken with a grain of salt...

But it´s obvious that infections aren´t over.
mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/… Image
#COVID19 test positive rates in #Spain are quite high, in some cities extreme:

In Madrid every ~5th test comes out "positive".
In Melilla its ~one in 3-4 tests. Image
A little background:
#Garmisch is a very idyllic part of Bavaria / #Germany.
It is mostly popular with older tourists.

Not the best place to have a party spree.
Especially if you´re #COVID19 positive...

Note: make that 54 infected persons for now.
The #Superspreading event in #Garmisch brought their incidence rate above "alert" level whithin one day.

Immediate restrictions concern closing times, groups in public (max 5 persons), several events cancelled,...
(effect on schools is yet unclear).
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
The #Superspreading lady managed to infect 23 staff and guests at her "hotel" in #Garmisch too.

(That one is a special location. It is a US "Armed Forces Recreation Center" - so #COVID19 rules might differ).
Due to the infections, it will be closed now
edelweisslodgeandresort.com Image
From recent videos, #COVID19 prevention standards at US Army´s "Edelweiss Lodge" in #Garmisch were reasonable (all the guests wearing facemasks, distancing,...)

So how could one lady infect 23 people, there?
=> Latest news says, she was part of the staff!
sueddeutsche.de/bayern/coronav…
Some updates from #Garmisch:
it wasn´t 54 new cases - the incidence is 54, today (~33 new cases). Now 24 infected in hotel.

And:
"the #Superspreader lady had symptoms and came to our test station. She was told to stay in quarantine -
she didn´t"...

br.de/nachrichten/ba… Image
A long way back to normal...
#Melbourne is about to 'enjoy' the first tiny steps.
After being in #Lockdown for over 2 months (harsh "Stage 4" rules for the last 6 weeks), rules are going to ease (a bit) tonight...
The plan for #Melbourne /#Victoria is to have 2 weeks of under 5 new cases, before lockdown restrictions would ease further.
(They have ~40 per day, now).

Currently, Melbourne's #Lockdown is scheduled to last 2 more weeks (at least)...
Having under 5 cases is no guarantee the numbers won't flare up again.
(Remember New Zealand with 102 days of zero cases, then another outbreak).

Melbourne's / Victoria's emergency ruleset has just been extended for 4 more weeks...
The extended harsh restrictions seem to slowly shape a new #Melbourne: Those who can afford it are turning away from the city.
#Melbourne university had run a model on #COVID19 spread.
The output is used for the current "Emerging from Lockdown" policy.

Even with the "5 case limit", cases are expected to rebound.
But "after christmas"...
msd.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/… Image
#France thinks they will roll out a rapid SARS-CoV-2 antigen #Test, this week. (According to this doctor from Paris).

It is meant for screenings.
The result will come in ~30 minutes.
It has a "reliability" of 90%. (it will not find every infected person).
(Oh, that went unnoticed):

There was a *second* #COVID19-neglecting lady in #Garmisch.
She had a sore throat, is said to be in hospital for treatment, now...

City: "We have no idea why she still went to work in 2 #kindergartens anyway"
🙄
merkur.de/lokales/garmis… Image
The first show after 6 months...

In #Vienna, a #Cluster has formed around a #theatre premiere. After 9 days, at least 24 infected (including secondary infections) are known.

They say, they took all precautions like masks for the audience, distancing,...
A student of a school in #Bavaria was found #COVID19 "positive".
Now it turns out she might have been infected by her general practitioner.
He is said to have COVID symptoms, had been tested "positive" and just kept on working with patients...
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
The first batch of results from the mass testing after the #Garmisch superspread event are in:

Out of 740 tests (on sunday), 3 have been found "positive".
This means nearly all contacts had already been found earlier.
The 3 additional #Garmisch cases are:
1 employee at a cocktail bar (where the superspreader visited)
2 guests of an irish pub (who visited with the superspreader).

All other 25 cases are said to be at US Army´s Edelweiss Lodge - no great spread in public
That´s how things go:
2 weeks ago, the owner of a club in #Austria decided to leave his #club open the whole night, because rules say it´s only forbidden to ENTER after 1 am.

"I think lawmakers tolerate it"
It was known, distancing wouldn´t work at night
noen.at/krems/nachtgas…
Now it turned out, several infected guests had been visiting the "Q-Stall" club in #Austria.
The club is closed now.

(Other clubs, who also say they won´t let people ENTER after 1 am, but let them party on if they were already inside, keep on partying...)
noen.at/krems/covid-fa…
This morning, "Q-Stall" club in #Austria announced, that after testing all their personnel, they found
2 (out of 6) were #COVID19 "positive".

(It´s not clear who infected who)
de-de.facebook.com/qstall.krems/p… Image
Limited travel options:

#Germany has just declared many important european regions as new "#COVID19 Risk Areas".

including Vienna (AT), Budapest (H), a wide area of NL with Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Den Haag..., more in Croatia, Romania, Switzerland,...

rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
3.000 #students in #Austria will start their initiation week with a #COVID19 rapid test.

Their lectures will take place in a congress centre in Vienna. Only a "negative" test will grant entry.

Tests will be done on site.
Results after 15 minutes.
Oh, #Madrid.

~30% of #Spain´s new #COVID19 infections happen there.

So far, the majority of the infected are in the age group up to 59 years.
(Average age of hospitalized people is 63 years, at the moment).
madrid.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
#Madrid is now planning two things:

- strict #Lockdown of the most affected city districts
- preparations to reopen the huge make-shift #COVID19 hospital at the city´s trade fair (in case a new run on hospitals would happen).
larazon.es/madrid/2020091… Image
Their dedicated #COVID19 units are saturated.
To keep treating regular patients, hospitals of #Marseille are recruiting 200 additional staff.

They already found 100.
They're afraid the rapidly incoming wave of COVID patients might overtake their efforts.
#Switzerland´s Vaud district faces a lack of medical staff, too.
So they came up with "Social Quarantine":
essential personnel need to continue to work, even if they were exposed to SARS-CoV-2.
They will face #quarantine measures in private life only.
20min.ch/fr/story/letra…
The "Work while in #Quarantine" idea isn´t new. It was also put into force by University Hospital of Aachen (Europe´s largest hospital), when they were hit by the very first #COVID19 wave (in March).

(choice: abandoning vs. maybe infecting neonatal unit)
ukaachen.de/en/clinics-ins…
A proposal had been made for "selective #Lockdown" of #Madrid´s districts with especially high #COVID19 numbers.

People there live in cowded appartments,
can´t telecommute
use public transport
they have the critical, low-income jobs,
like nurse, cashier.
According to one doctor at a hospital in Madrid,
"it is already too late to close down only selected districts. We would need to have a #Lockdown for entire #Madrid."
One of Madrid´s hospitals (the Army´s hospital) has already re-installed tents for triage, in case of a rising influx of #COVID19 patients.

But they are lacking personnel.
And, as the text says, there´s no strict separation of COVID and non-COVID patients
A while ago, a "socially very active" group of seniors made a bustrip to the Chech Republic.
When they returned back home to #Germany, 19 out of 30 were #COVID19 "positive".
A few days ago, one of them (84) died.

Army will help with contact tracing, now.
insuedthueringen.de/region/thuerin…
The #COVID19 incubation period can be up to 24 days.
One person now developed symptoms 21 days after he arrived in New Zealand.

Well after ending his standard 14-day "managed isolation", while already living his normal life among his community...

health.govt.nz/news-media/med…
In some areas of #Madrid, about ~1% of population has become infected with #COVID19 in the last 14 days.

Those areas were meant to be "restricted" from today on.
This report says, there´s not much difference, it´d be like an ordinary monday...
One odd thing of #Madrid´s "non-confinement" is:
the "restricted" areas are not marked by district lines, but by administratory areas (that are unknown and invisisble to ordinary people).

So some folks took it in their own (creative) hands...
Munich has had a couple of bad #COVID19 days in a row, with their incidence topping the "alert" level.

Today, they decided to make masks mandatory in (certain) open-air public places (the most popular/crowded places of #Munich).
Image
#Berlin is...
weird.

It took them ~2 hours to realize that their published "incidence of 21 percent"😱 (suggesting every 5th Berliner got infected in the last week) might not be accurate...

Image
Berlin isn´t out of the woods, either.
The most popular parts like #Kreuzberg experience a remarkable rise in #COVID19 cases.
This map shows yesterday´s numbers. The updated map will see Kreuzberg cross the "incidence 50 alert level", and a R-value of ~1.5
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Meanwhile, in the UK...

#Belgium was the only country in Europe to *formally prohibit* travel to #COVID19 "Red Zones".

That´s going to change, soon:
from Friday (Sept 25) on, they will only "strongly advise against" such travels.
diplomatie.belgium.be/sites/default/… Image
One birthday #party in south #Germany turned into
20 of 33 guests #COVID19 infected
+5 secondary infections so far

550 contacts in quarantine,
affecting
8 schools,
7 sports clubs,
several businesses

(the party was within legal allowance limits)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#France has come up with new #COVID19 rules:

The #isolation period of infected persons is now reduced to 7 days.
("the remaining risk of contamination can be managed by scrupulously wearing masks, hygiene and distancing")

For contacts: #Test after 7 days
Why does #France go against #WHO´s guideline of 14 days #quarantine?

"It´s better to have 7 days, than 14 days that no-one respects at all"

(In regional surveys, France had found that ~40% of cases didn´t care that they should be in quarantine)
🙄
Source:gouvernement.fr/info-coronavir… Image
Berlin (#Kreuzberg district) managed to "somehow" dodge the magic "Incidence 50" line.

Note: that is NOT a result of #COVID19 response measures.
For the time being, #Berlin´s senate is still just *discussing* what measures would be feasible...
Berlin is peculiar, as they report #COVID19 incidence numbers on district level (some close to 50), but want to be judged by the entire city´s average (24.4)
...
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Technically, #Berlin´s "we are one #COVID19 zone" approach doesn´t work.

Official numbers of #RKI are based on Berlin´s district numbers.
If one district goes above "incidence 50", you´d be automatically barred from staying in hotels in some states or banned from some companies. Image
Now, that happened in #Berlin:

#Kreuzberg has passed the #COVID19 "incidence 50" line. 🚨

At the same time, only one indicator is still "yellow" (as R number for entire Berlin has dropped below 1).
Berlin´s own rules would not require them to react, now.
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Germany has announced a load of new (international) #COVID19 Risk Areas", including
- parts of Denmark (around Copenhagen)
- now nearly entire France
- Dublin region in Ireland
- Utrecht Province in NL
- more of Austria
- Czech republic, nearly entirely...
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
France has reduced #COVID19 isolation / #quarantine period to 7 days (with final PCR test), Belgium wants to follow.

Germany´s #RKI just issued a report, saying:
"Reducing quarantine below 10 days would mean a greater risk (even with PCR test as clearing)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Ooops...

#France´s government has just announced that #Marseille would be posed under "Maximum Alert", with all bars and restaurants having to close.

Apparently Marseille´s mayor wasn´t involved.
#France has introduced new "Alert Zones",
corresponding to #COVID19 regional situations:

"Alert": cap on gathering (30 people max)
"Heightened Alert" (10 people max, bars close early...)
"Maximum Alert" (bars, restaurants closed)
There was this 18th-birthday-party, in #Germany, resulting in 550 people quarantined in 8 schools, 7 sports clubs, etc.

The #party only had 33 guests.
Latest number: 30 of these guests were found to be #COVID19 infected.
30 out of 33 (~18 year old) teens.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
A church in #Germany needed to replace one of its bells, as it was broken after 400 years of use.

The casting of the new bell was finished in July.
Among many other historic symbols, it features a significant symbol of our times...
a SARS-CoV-2 virus.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
Regarding #UK, a new study seems to find:
only 11 % are quarantining, when they were "close contact" with a #COVID19 case.
just 18 % are self-isolating, when they develop symptoms.

Reasons:
* not recognizing symptoms
* no support 💷/🥪if you stay at home
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
#Madrid still has very high #COVID19 infection numbers. They had proposed a #Lockdown of some additonal city districts.

The government´s health minister has now turned into override mode and requests a #Lockdown of (nearly) the entire city.
The #COVID19-Vice-Counselor of #Madrid has issued a statement, that demanding a #Lockdown of all city districts with higher incidence than 500 (new cases / 100.000 inhabitants per 14 days) would be "almost as harmful as the virus itself"...

A surprising update from Germany's RKI:
from now on
- Luxembourg (again)
- Tyrol (Austria, again)
- Czech Republic (entire country now)

are regarded as "#COVID19 Risk Areas"
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
A day after being urged to #Lockdown the entire city, #Madrid´s regional government still holds on to their plan to have restrictions only for a few districts.

Spains national Health Minister has now appealed once more to revise the measures.
While #Madrid says "let´s wait, #COVID19 numbers may get better", #Spain´s government says "by monday, the numbers will be much worse - #Lockdown the entire city now!".

A report suggests national government is contemplating to take over control of Madrid.
Experts in the #Netherlands worry about rising hospital admissions: "the last time we had ICU numbers like this, we went into Lockdown."
3 weeks later the health system nearly crashed.

"In 2 weeks ICUs might be full again.
With no lockdown it´ll be worse"
eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/item/ic-hoofd-…
#Luxembourg has an idea to keep #schools running, even when a teacher would need to be #quarantined:

The teachers receive a special permit, allowing them to continue teaching in class. Only requirement: teacher needs to wear a mask.

(happened 93 times)
lessentiel.lu/de/luxemburg/s…
Luxembourg´s plan on keeping schools running:

(Stage 1 - only one #COVID19 case in class)
* case stays home
* contacts need to wear masks for 5 days
* class will continue to go to school, but "avoids exchange with other classes"
* testing
* no quarantine
men.public.lu/dam-assets/fr/… Image
#Luxembourg´s plan for schools

(Stage 2 - multiple #COVID19 cases in one class)
* class will be quarantined
* the #teacher may be quarantined, practising remote teaching OR, according to requirements "continues to teach (in classes) while wearing a mask"
men.public.lu/fr/actualites/… Image
(Note: #Berlin´s lab results are usually lower on weekends.
So it could become interesting, as "Berlin Mitte" district has broken the 50 incidence limit today (saturday)...
The speaker of the national / regional #COVID19 coordination group in Madrid has just resigned, after 2 days in office.

"Driven by what he experienced these 2 days"
(frustrated by lack of cooperation between Spain´s government and Madrid region, it seems)
A gospel choir in #Spain (yes, they do exist and they actually sound very good) practiced for a performance, ~2 weeks ago.

The rehearsal was indoors.
Meanwhile, ~30 of 40 #choir members are found to be #COVID19 "positive"...

Beware the #Aerosols!
cp24.com/mobile/world/c…
This is how 30 choir members got infected:

Temperature checks on arrival, hand washing, social distancing between each member and masks on for most of the rehearsal.

But the venue's windows were closed. Air conditioning was switched on to fight the heat.
#Melbourne will take one more step back to "normal" by tomorrow.

But it comes with one measure to avoid resurgence of a rapid #COVID19 spread:
Real masks😷
#Vienna´s mobile #COVID19 test-team call themselves "ClusterBusters".
Their van (the "Cluster Buster Bus") is equipped with a new rapid test device, enabling them to perform 48 tests per hour, with first results after 30 minutes.
It had long been a mystery, how one worker became infected with #COVID19 in a hotel in New Zealand, although he never saw an infected person.

Weeks later it turned out:
it might have been the #elevator !
The worker used it shortly after an infected guest.
newshub.co.nz/home/new-zeala…
A recent study in the Netherlands says:
if someone coughs in an #elevator, the #aerosols might linger in the cabin´s air for ~10-20 minutes !

"The #ventilation inside all studied elevators automatically shut off after 1‐2 minutes in idle position"...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/in…
As of today,
the #Netherlands have declared to have reached "Stage 3" ("Ernstig" / serious #COVID19 conditions) in the areas around the large cities:
Rotterdam
Den Haag
Amsterdam
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl Image
The "Ernstig" /serious #COVID19 condition in NL is defined by:
"-measures aren´t adhered to
- contact tracing isn´t effective any more
- treatment capacity is insufficient
- number of infections is rising rapidly

- a rigorous response is deemed necessary"
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/over-risiconiv… Image
At a glance, #Netherland´s hospitalization doesn´t seem to be nearly as bad as it was during the first wave.
But taking a closer look, hospital admissions due to #COVID19 have tripled in 4 weeks...
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/ziek… ImageImage
Despite much lower hospital admissions than during 1st wave, #Amsterdam already started transfering #COVID19 patients to other cities. They are at capacity limit.

-this time, treatment of "ordinary" cases shall continue
-more personnel is already infected
parool.nl/amsterdam/regi…
Algebra with Angela.

This time, she explains why she warned that the current path of rising infections could lead #Germany to 19.200 new #COVID19 cases per day (not ~20.000).

Note: she doesn´t say it WILL happen, she just shows the effect it WOULD have.
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen… Image
In response to rising #COVID19 numbers, the city of #Berlin has announced that #masks will become mandatory in #Office spaces.
(That´s similar to restaurants: no mask while seated at your table, 😷but mask, whenever you are at risk of bumping into others)
Berlin´s #COVID19 status report today:

District "Mitte" is above incidence "50".
Neukölln and Kreuzberg are close to crossing that crucial (federal) limit.
The average incidence for entire #Berlin has just broken their local limit of "30" as well (so this indicator turned "RED") Image
#Berlin´s indicator for ICU occupation stands at 2.4%, today. (Yesterday: 2.1%)
That sounds low.
But the curve seems to suggest the beginning of exponential growth (maybe).
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Huuuge U-turn in the #Netherlands!

"With immediate effect, we urgently advise everyone to wear #facemasks in public closed spaces."

That was unthinkable a few hours ago,
since dutch #RIVM still said keeping 1.5 m distance would be more effective...
nos.nl/artikel/235044…
If you go to the website of #Netherland´s disease centre #RIVM, you will still find their official point of view

"There´s no need to wear #masks in your private life"

(Last updated: 5 days ago)
rivm.nl/coronavirus-co… Image
#RIVM´s ruleset for mobile nursing-service still says:

"If your patient is not suspected to have #COVID19, you do not need to wear any PPE".

So: no #mask, when nurses visit their elderly patients, one by one, at their homes...
lci.rivm.nl/PBM-wijkverple… Image
Wooow... after a week of
"You´d better #Lockdown!"😠- "No, we won´t"😒
ping-pong between #Spain´s government and #Madrid region,

Spain´s health minister serves the punch:
Madrid and 9 other cities will be (semi)confined by decree.👊
lainformacion.com/espana/coronav…
For the third time in one week,
Germany has updated the list of regions it regards as "#COVID19 Risk Areas".

added:
Belgium (now entire country)
Iceland (entire country)
France (now nearly entirely)
Parts of Ireland, North Ireland, Estonia, Lithuania,...
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
"From today on, there's no more obligation to wear masks outdoors in Belgium"...

(except: in crowded places,
anywhere, where you can't keep your distance, in covered spaces, ... - so they just adopted a more pragmatic solution than earlier "everywhere")
info-coronavirus.be/fr/news/cns-23…
Well,
it might be,
#Sweden starts to go the path of another wave,
like all the other countries...

Image
What, #Sweden ?!

There are NOW "new" rules in Sweden, saying that contacts living with an infected person SHOULD also be given a code of conduct.
"That MAY mean that you must not go to work".

(A. Tegnell: "We know that many people are infected at home")
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-pr…
Coming saturday is a holiday in #Germany.
Usually, germans would love to flock into nearby cities across the border in the #Netherlands, for a shopping frenzy.

But this year, dutch cities plead:
"Please don´t!
You´re welcome, but it´d be too much, now!"
venloverwelkomt.nl/de/ Image
Meanwhile, #Strasbourg (France) seems to have no problems with tourists at all.
Their website actively encourages #tourists (not only from Germany) to come for a visit.

Only one warning:
"Watch out! You must wear a face covering, even outside."
visitstrasbourg.fr/en/welcome-in-… Image
Germany´s daily sitrep is out.
It features #Berlin´s "Mitte" district as one of 4 "#COVID19 Risk Areas".

But Berlin insists they should be judged by the entire city´s (lower) average incidence.
So it´s the only Risk Area that takes NO action...
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
From a Berlin-point of view everything´s still quite okay.

Mitte is at incidence 60, Neukölln at 59, Kreuzberg is just below 50...
but their average is just 32 !

(technically) No need to do anything !
(Berlin would need a 2nd indicator to turn red to kick into action!) Image
Many (especially Berliners) wouldn´t believe it,
but first states of #Germany explicitly point out that the city district of #BERLIN MITTE is regarded as separate #COVID19 Risk Area.

That means: 14 days mandatory #Quarantine, if you´d enter these states!
schleswig-holstein.de/DE/Landesregie… Image
Under the impression of surging #COVID19 cases in the #Netherlands, dutch government has "strongly advised" everyone to wear #masks.
But the director of their disease center #RIVM says
"That´s primarily a political decision, ordinary masks don´t help much"
nos.nl/artikel/235070…
The #Netherlands´ Secretary of Education has a peculiar point of view on #Masks as well:

"There´s no need to advise wearing masks at colleges or at universites - it´s always easy to keep a distance, there..."

nos.nl/artikel/235066…
#Germany updated its list of International #COVID19 Risk Areas again.

Now nearly all of the Netherlands,
Scotland and parts of England are seen as "presenting an increased risk of infection".

But specifically two tiny towns in #Austria are excluded...
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Mittelberg and Jungholz, 2 tiny towns of #Austria,
are technically exclaves.
Only acces is via german territory.
As they had zero #COVID19 cases recently,
a petition was started to exempt them from #Germany´s Quarantine list.

The petition succeeded.
openpetition.de/petition/onlin…
"Berlin sees steepest surge in #COVID19 numbers since the beginning of the pandemic"
(#RKI: "It´s young mobile people spreading it")

also, same article:
"Berlin gets rid of quarantine rules for visitors from Risk Areas of other parts of #Germany"
🙃
"Staphorst" is trending in the Netherlands - and it´s a very emotional topic...
Loads of people are upset, as it became known that a church in the town of #Staphorst was holding several big indoor services without masks, but with singing, today...
nos.nl/artikel/235094…
Technically, the church in Staphorst uses some arguments:

-"Authorities cannot answer if singing in church would be (ir)responsible" (that´s actually true regarding dutch authorities)
-"risc of infection is dependent on space, crowd size and ventilation"
hhkstaphorst.nl/uploads/124/ni… Image
It seems, the church in Staphorst has been practising singing without masks already for a while.
(They have an elaborated "COVID-ruleset" around that).
But there was an update, 2 days ago:
NOW THEY WILL CLOSE THE CHURCH DOORS
(as it is cold weather) Image
Technically, the church in Staphorst is within the (messed up) dutch COVID-rules.
So they held their services today, with no masks behind closed doors.

"I can´t say no-one gets infected. But I´m not afraid..."

Some understood criticism,
some didn´t care.
Oh my...

#Staphorst, ~50 years ago:
An outbreak of #Polio.
39 sick, 5 died.
The sickness had already been eradicated years ago.

But the #church members in this town had refused vaccination.

(and: the dutch vaccine was developped against #RIVM's will)
anderetijden.nl/aflevering/340…
#Ireland's National Public Health Emergency Team recommends to put the entire nation under a full (Level 5) #Lockdown.

Rising #COVID19 numbers are worrying.
But it is unclear whether government and public are ready for such drastic action...
#Berlin released their latest #COVID19 #heatmap today.
It shows a manifested cluster in the age group of 15-29 years. (~1 in 1.000 of this age group was detected "positive", last week)

And it is slowly creeping up to the "vulnerable ages"...
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
As a reaction of yesterday´s controversial church service in Staphorst, the government of the #Netherlands with representatives of multiple religions worked out an "Advise for Practicing Faith with Caution" today.
Featuring "no singing" and "wearing masks"
rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws… Image
#Amsterdam had been transferring #COVID19 patients to other regions of the #Netherlands for a while.
Now hospitals in the surrounding regions start to reduce their regular treatments, to cope with the rising influx of COVID patients.

If numbers keep rising like they currently do, around #Paris,
"#COVID19 occupation of intensive care units would rise from 37% to 50% in ~2 weeks"

(Note: 5 in 1000 in the age group 20-30 years were detected "positive" last week)
Like in many countries,
case numbers of #France don´t correlate to intensive care occupation,
the way they used to do in the first wave.

While detected #COVID19 numbers were lower in March, ICU occupation was far worse than today.
An animation,
showing how the first wave of #COVID19 overrun hospital capacities across #France within days, while the current rise happpens relatively "moderately".
So (as expected) #Ireland wasn´t ready for the proposed complete "Stage 5" #Lockdown.
They decided they´d try with "Stage 3" restrictions for a week and see how that works out...
Today, #Berlin´s own #COVID19 indication system switched to "Double Red"
🟥
🟥
🟩
(Reproduction number too high for too long, AND
Incidence too high).
This technically implies Berlin needs to stop the "discussing" stage and
"take action"
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Berlin´s "action" in response to rapidly rising #COVID19 numbers:
-bars etc. will need to close at night (11 pm- 6 am)
-the guest limit for parties will be lowered from 25 to 10

(of course - as it´s #Berlin, nobody thinks this will actually be controlled)
rbb24.de/politik/thema/…
Looks like #Berlin knows about its weak point "controls" - and is ready to really act:

"To avoid laborious controls, we introduced a total closing hour at 11 pm.
And the fines will now START at 5.000 €."

(hoping for a deterring effect)
While the #Netherlands registered a new record of 5.000 new #COVID19 cases in the last 24 hours,
(much higher than during the first wave)
admission to hospitals / intensive care is much lower than earlier this year.
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… ImageImage
Although hospital admissions rise slower than in the 1st wave, hospitals in the #Netherlands need to reduce normal treatment to treat #COVID19 cases.

But this time, NL looks for early pressure-relief.
They already organize optional IC treatment in Germany
skipr.nl/nieuws/nederla…
Oh dear, tweets from #Poland:
"-since 2 weeks, massive rise in #COVID19 case numbers
-75 "positive" cases died today
-outbreaks at hospitals (personnel affected)
-ambulances wait long times to be accepted at hospitals"
...
Image
#Poland´s Deputy Prime Minister:

"We have to take into account that in the next 7-10 days we will be dealing with a fairly large number of deaths."

😟 (it was already 75 in 24 hours, today)
Meanwhile,

#Berlin is near breaking the "incidence 50" limit, that would classify the entire city as #COVID19 Risk Area.
It would require Berliners to provide a "negative" #COVID19 test, if they´d like to stay in hotels in other parts of Germany
(that´s their main sorrow, today) Image
Not far way from #Poland, #COVID19 patients make up a mere 3.3% of #Berlin´s ICU occupation, today.
30.5% of beds are empty for now.

(that´s only in regular hospitals. Not taking into account a large trade-fair COVID-hospital on standby)

berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Yesterday, #Berlin insisted
"We want our #COVID19 numbers to be judged as ONE city, not as seperate districts"...

That wish came true today (not as intended, though):
Today the average incidence for entire Berlin has broken the critical "50" limit.
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
The calm is over.

The hospitals around #Paris have activated their "Plan Blanc" #COVID19 crisis plan, again.

Intensive care occupation had doubled in 2 weeks to 41%, now. They think it may double again, in 2-3 weeks.
#Poland is a country of pragmatic people:
"The ministry also decided to introduce a requirement of a distance of at least 100 metres between individual gatherings, explaining that...
to date different gatherings had been held in the same place."🤣
polandin.com/50240017/covid…
"Europe surprised by rapid increase of infections in the #Netherlands."

Surprised? No.

(5.831 new #COVID19 cases detected in NL in one day.)
In the #Netherlands, hospital admissions due to #COVID19 have risen by 74% in one week.

They double every 9 days, now. But that rate is rising, too.
(~1.000 in hospitals, ~250 in intensive care)
The country's max. IC capacity is ~800, these days...
After weeks, #Madrid and #Spain´s government are still fighting over #Lockdown.
A court ruled that the government could not limit the fundamental right of freedom of movement without resorting to a state of alarm.
So, a State of Alarm has just been issued.
+~85% week on week growth
It´s not about test results.
It´s new hospital admissions due to #COVID19!

That´s the situation in the #Netherlands, today.
Officially, in the #Netherlands, #Aerosols "play a minor role (if any)" in transmitting SARS-CoV-2 (according to #RIVM´s latest guidelines)...
"You are not a close contact if you haven´t been closer than 1.5m to a postive case".
In #Germany,
doctors call to stop disinfecting surfaces "it´s stupid - the main infection route is via air (#aerosols,...)

(#RKI guidelines sometimes count you as close contact, if you just shared a room with a positive case, no matter which distance).
deutschlandfunk.de/coronavirus-ae…
#Berlin,
one of their minor problems today:
to grasp their #COVID19 new case graph, you´ll need to tilt your screen.
(+443 cases, today) Image
#Berlin was now added to #Switzerland´s quarantine list as well...

Special measures in south german student town of #Tübingen:
You may still have an outdoor party.
If it´s more than 10 folks, local police will briefly join and register contact data.
*no contact taken If you can show the COVID-App on your phone is working*
tuebingen.de/amtliche_bekan… Image
Today was the day, the #Netherlands hoped to see first results of their "strongly advised #COVID19 measures".

They saw a new record number instead:
6.504 new cases detected.

And it´s no longer just in the big cities.
It spreads everywhere...
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Members of the #Netherlands´ "Outbreak Management Team" begin to call for
- total #lockdown
- accepting that masks DO WORK
- maybe wait 2 more days for a change in #COVID19 trend, but no longer
As the #Netherlands still have quite liberal #COVID19 rules, the church in Staphorst will have another day of controversial services, tomorrow.

This time with less visitors, less singing.
They claim "Infection risk is 0,0%".

(Masks? "No proof they help")
hhkstaphorst.nl Image
A closer look at the Staphorst church and facemasks:

"As there is no scientifc proof of the use of masks, we will leave it up to you, if you´d like to wear them while entering / exiting."

Implying that it is expected that masks will not be worn, once inside the building... Image
Fast acceleration:
One day after breaking the "50 incidence" alert level, #Stuttgart (hometown of Porsche & Mercedes) is declaring it cannot keep up with contact tracing.

They request administrative help by #Germany´s army.
stuttgart.de/service/aktuel… Image
"US Army ruins holidays for children in Germany"

By reporting a large batch of belated #COVID19 infection reports all in one day,
they catapulted #Ramstein area into the "Risk Area" numbers.

Holidays start tomorrow,
no hotel will take guests from there🤷
stripes.com/news/us-milita…
"Holidays saved !"

German authorities worked through the weekend to stop/undo the effects of a large batch of belated infection reports.
Seems they succeded.
Color code has changed from RED to orange. Residents are now welcome in other states again.
Image
As more german cities become "Risk Areas", a wide front argues that denying accomodation to tourists from those areas would be "unfair".

Note well:
This measure was chosen as a compromise in summer, to avoid having to deny *all travel* out of risk areas!
"Nightingale Hospitals" are the #UK version of trade-fair makeshift #hospitals.
They were introduced during the first #COVID19 wave, but rarely ever saw a patient.

It might be different, soon.
Patient numbers are already higher than during first wave...
#RKI published a guideline on "#COVID19 prevention in #Schools", today,
stating:
"-children and adolescents can become infected and can infect others
-but they are less often infected than adults"
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…

Berlin´s heatmap tells a different story... Image
#Berlin´s authorities seem to be overwhelmed by the sheer amount of #COVID19 contact administration.
District "Mitte" has now issued an ordinance, obliging everyone to self-isolate the very moment he receives information he´s a "close contact" by phone.
Authorities in the #Netherlands had already stopped #Contact tracing.

Now they are so overwhelmed that they don't even have enough time to instruct all "positive" cases how/why they must inform their "close contacts" themselves.

Losing control, it seems.
The #Netherlands are shocked:
some by 7.400 new cases
some by new measures, they thought would never come:
A "partial #Lockdown" comes into force tomorrow:
- all bars and restaurants closed
- receiving visits only once a day
- masks in indoor public spaces
rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws… Image
To give a better overview of their current #COVID19 situation, the #Netherlands have just introduced a new risk level:
"VERY serious" (zeer ernstig)
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl Image
#Belgium has a special town:
Louvain-la-Neuve was exclusively build to house a university and ~10.000 students...

Now, 600 of the resident students have tested #COVID19 "positive"...
The mayor of #Belgium´s student town Lovain-la-Neuve has introduced harsh measures to control the #COVID19 outbreak among:

-a night curfew for everyone (1-6 a.m.)
-WEARING MASKS will be mandatory on HALLOWEEN!
👻No, that one:😷
-(no "Trick or treat"ing!)
olln.be/fr/actualites/… Image
A night time #curfew was just announced for the 9 hardest hit #COVID19 regions of #France.

(many doubt this will help much, as there was a second announcement, capable to ruin it all: everyone will be free to travel to holidays in non-restricted regions)
Right now, twitter is full of joking
"let´s all flee the curfew cities and meet in small towns in the countryside!"

Oh, well,
that´s what initiated the "accomodation ban for residents from COVID Risk Areas" in Germany, earlier.
Let´s see how France fares.
Local health authorities in the #Netherlands say they "lost overview and grip on infections ~3 weeks ago".
"We had the means for good source and contact tracing for up to 2.000 #COVID19 cases per day" - that mark fell on September 21.

(~7.500 cases today)
A minor panic in eastern #France... rumours are that #Germany will declare the french region "Grand-Est" a #COVID19 "Risk Area" (indicators were already showing this for a while).

Traffic jams, as everyone rushes for cigarettes (oh, and toilet paper...)
dna.fr/sante/2020/10/…
Interestingly, a court in south #Germany has just declared the regional "accomodation ban" for visitors from german risk areas as disproportionate/void.
🤔But why should neighbours from #France then be banned from (private) visits?
Officially declared now, but effective only from saturday on:
#Germany´s list of #COVID19 "risk areas" is now listing
entire #France (yes, with Grand-Est region, as expected)
much more of Switzerland
and... Sweden is back !
(among many others)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
(told you so)
German courts ruled
"Hotels haven´t caused any outbreaks, so banning them from giving rooms to people from risk areas is disproportionate"

No, the problem causing outbreaks was people moving out of risk areas...
🤷it´s about TRAVEL BANS now.
welt.de/politik/deutsc…
Don´t touch it - it´s fragile, you´ll break it...
but noooooo - "WE WANT TO GO ON HOLIDAYS, IT´S OUR RIGHT OF FREE MOVEMENT"....🤦
(now there´s no accomodation ban (still allowing day trips)
=> but you MIGHT get a complete travel ban)
Another court ruling (in #Berlin):
Longer closing times for bars are disproportionate.
"Closing bars at night would not have substantial effect on slowing down the spread of the pandemic"...
berlin.de/aktuelles/berl…
Two approaches:
(1) When #Melbourne/VIC had 76 cases per day, and thought they might still be able to confine outbreaks, they put parts of Melbourne into strict #Lockdown, stage 3.

(it didn´t work out
cases didn´t decline until a later level 4 lockdown) Image
Two approaches
(2) Today, #Berlin has registered 676 new #COVID19 cases.
They know, contact tracing has become ineffective.
Most outbreaks are not in clusters, but diffuse. It´s widespread.
Level of restrictions:
"Public events in closed spaces are (only) allowed 1.000 visitors." Image
Berlin´s #COVID19 number today (676 new cases/ ~4 m residents) is roughly the same as the highest number in entire #Victoria (687 new cases / ~6 m residents) ever was

(after 4 weeks of stage3 #Lockdown in Melbourne, a few days after scaling up to stage4)
dhhs.vic.gov.au/victorian-coro… Image
The mayor of a small seaside town in #France is trying to install a nighttime curfew in his #COVID19-free town.

He is afraid, tourists from Paris will use the holidays to flee the restriction loaded metropole and come in masses.
lci.fr/population/cov…
🎉Hey!🎊
That's ~2.5 months after they initiated a drastic #Lockdown policy (after the first 4 weeks of less drastic measures failed to show results).

Victoria/#Melbourne are still not back to normal life.
(5 km mobility radius, 5 person social bubble...)
"Look at France,
look at England,...they are not coming out of restrictions,
they are heading *into* #Lockdowns
and into what will be a long deadly winter..."

(Victoria Premier's experienced view.
Many think he did things right. But everyone wants an end)
They prefer not do cooperate.

90% of #Berlin´s #COVID19 cases cannot be tracked to a source:
"it´s becoming a problem that those involved in outbreaks just deny giving their contacts´ data".

"we hope the 10 guest-limit for private parties will help"
🙄
berlin.de/aktuelles/berl…
Drones for rapid delivery of (#COVID19) samples and protective equipment.

Since 3 years in Ruanda,
now in the UK as well.
South german state of Baden-Württemberg has declared "Pandemic Level 3"

This might include a lot of mask wearing (in classes, in crowded public areas,...) and contact reduction.
Other details will be discussed/published tomorrow.

Well, we´ll see.
baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/pre…
Due to "highly dynamic developments, where cities became hotspots within hours /days", the "Pandemic Level 3" will affect the ENTIRE STATE of Baden-Württemberg.
Regardless of the current case numbers in a specific area.

(Sounds so simple, it could work!)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
"The time has come for me to confess - yes, for the last three weeks, we have been quietly preparing the biggest logistical operation:

The testing of our entire population.
Not just once, but two weekends in a row"

(Prime Minister of #Slovakia)
aktuality.sk/clanok/831234/…
Discussion is going on, how #Slovakia would convince all inhabitants to take part in the mass blanket testing.

Strong words from the Prime Minister:
"Those who don´t go to the test, should only get basic healthcare afterwards"

(There are opposing views)
The government of #Slovakia has agreed - the mass testing of Slovakia´s entire population will take place.

8.000 army personnel, medics and "every available police officer and firefighter" will help in the roll-out.
Dates: October 30 + November 1, 6 & 8
spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/…
In total, #Slovakia ordered 13 million tests.
Cost per test is ~ 4 €.
Testing will be free.

It´s a rapid antigen test.
They expect no wonders. They hope to detect "maybe 30% of the really infected population at that moment"
zive.aktuality.sk/clanok/149183/…
#Italy´s region of Emilia-Romagna is starting a #COVID19 screening campaign, today.

2 million rapid antigen tests (16€ each) will be available to all pupils/#students and their family members.
Testing will take place in pharmacies for free.
bologna.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/1…
Free tests for #students & family members in Emilia-Romagna (#Italy) will be available until 2021 (multiple tests, if desired).

If the rapid antigen test indicates a "positive" finding, a second (PCR) test will be done to verify it´s actually #COVID19.
regione.emilia-romagna.it/notizie/primo-…
Amai, België!

This is not new cases.
This is daily hospital admissions for #COVID19 in #Belgium.
covid-19.sciensano.be/sites/default/… Image
"#Lockdown style" restrictions are back in #Germany.

A striking surge in #COVID19 cases (with no known common source) in idyllic #Berchtesgaden is initiating hectic "regulating activity" in Bavaria.

br.de/nachrichten/am…
Berchtesgaden (Germany)´s neighbor, Kuchl in #Austria was put under #Lockdown 2 days ago.
Both outbreaks are not thought to be connected (so far).

(Oh, this report features a dutch tourist at a Kuchl roadblock, surprised by ~"all that upheaval"~..)
salzburg.orf.at/stories/307194…
Germany´s #RKI just issued a new contact tracing guideline:

"Due to insufficient tracing capacity, contact tracing for flight passengers will be discontinued"✈️🛂🚫

AND
Tests for asymptomatic close contacts will not be standard anymore (!)🤷
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
A hidden gem in #RKI´s latest guideline for contact tracing:

"One singing person 🎶emits as many particles per second as 30 talking persons😲"

rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
A group of german virologists published a warning today:

"Due to the explosive dynamics of infections, now sub-critical regions might spiral out of control, too"
"contact tracing and isolation would become impossible"

(it´s already obvious, I guess)
g-f-v.org/node/1358 Image
Meanwhile, #Austria is discussing about a (leaked) proposal to halt testing of close contacts (just quarantine them) in order to produce lower case numbers and be more attractive to tourists...

(turns out: nearly no EU country still tests contacts...)
derstandard.at/story/20001210…
Berlin heatmap.
This is not contained to "the young" anymore.
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
The #Netherlands seem to turn around.
One week after introducing a bit stricter rules (like closing all bars and restaurants, a bit more mask wearing,...) their #COVID19 numbers are off the skyrocketing-trajectory, going down again.

Could it be that easy?
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
16 days ago, their National Public Health Emergency team recommended #Ireland to go into Level 5 #Lockdown.

Government said "let´s first try if Level 3 works as well".

Apparently they found out it didn´t work.
Ireland will go into full Level 5 now.
#Lockdown for Berchtesgaden went into effect at 2p.m. today.
As a first step, ~2.500 tourists were told to leave.
"As far as we know, there will be no test before they leave".

And quarantine for returnees from german risk areas was scrapped, recently...
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
The last state in #Germany demanding #COVID19 tests from travellers from inner-german risk areas was just ordered to stop this practice.

(after they already had to stop demanding quarantine)

ndr.de/nachrichten/me…
AAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH! 😳*sorry*

The head of that state wich had to abandon quarantine and testing for tourists from german risk areas
had to quarantine today,

after one of her staff returned infected from holidays in a (now) german risk area: Berchtesgaden.
nordkurier.de/mecklenburg-vo…
The court´s reason for scrapping quarantine & tests for tourists (from inner-german risk areas):

"You don´t demand that from students and business travellers - so it´s not legitimate to demand it from tourists only!"
mv-justiz.de/gerichte-und-s… Image
Berlin,
today, 6.4% of all intensive care beds are currently in use for #COVID19 patients.

4 days ago, that number was 4.8%
(growth of 1/3rd) Image
#Slovakia´s Prime Minister says, the coming #COVID19 test of the entire population will
"pretty much be voluntary".

What does that mean?

"You can either prove you were tested or you´ll be put under quarantine, with no sick-leave payment".
🥺
spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/…
The graph below shows hospital admissions for #COVID19 in Luik/Liège (#Belgium).

In a few hours they will have to treat more patients than in the first wave.

The surge is extraordinary. One newspaper compares it to what happened to Bergamo, back in March
hln.be/binnenland/in-… Image
As hospitals in Luik/Liège reach their limit, several smaller hospitals in eastern #Belgium have prepared to rather transfer new #COVID19 patients to (also nearby) Germany.
brf.be/regional/14238…
This is relevant news from New Zealand.

"3 minutes of contact were enough to transmit #COVID19 infection."
Germany´s #RKI has announced an unexpected shocking record of new #COVID19 cases (~11.000 in a day) AND declared wide new Risk-Areas in Europe...

(Seems like people can´t believe it and everyone wants to check their website...) Image
The mayor of #Bergamo (Italy) adresses the population:

"We talked about it. Now the #2ndWave is here.
It is different. We still have good control in our hospitals.
And that´s why we have to act now."

There will be a curfew and support for citizens.
6 Patients are transferred by #AmbuBus 200 km across the #Netherlands right now.

Rotterdam hospital:
"We´re completely full right now.
We expect a stream of #COVID19 patients later in the day."
By transferring some to Maastricht, they hope they might cope
nos.nl/video/2353310-… Image
NL patient coordinator about hospital admissions:

"The first wave was like a tidal wave.
But this one is a tsunami:
at first, it looks like a small wave. But then the mass of water keeps rushing in. And it will not stop when infections finally slow down."
nos.nl/artikel/235332…
"The number of #COVID19 patients in intensive care is rising much faster than in normal hospital care.
Half of #Netherlands´ ICU beds are now occupied by #COVID19 patients.

From friday on, transfers to Germany will start."
#Belgium has started to transfer #COVID19 patients from Luik/Liège to Germany, today.
tvl.be/nieuws/ziekenh…
#France is going to announce new curfews this evening.
Seems everyone wants to guess which cities will be named...

#Géodes, the official french server for #COVID19 statistics is featuring a waiting line for access right now: Image
After the new curfew zones of #France have been announced, the waiting line to access the official #COVID19 server has become longer.

People seem confused:
"What? Our curfew is lifted? But recently, numbers were bad here!" (Bordeaux)
(just a note:)

France, Departement "Bas-Rhin":
Incidence:
236.5
 Covid cases / free ICU beds: ~18%
(now under curfew)
grand-est.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2…

Germany, Berlin Neukölln:
Incidence:
236.7
 Covid cases / free ICU beds: ~27%
berlin.de/corona/lageber… ImageImage
Belgium, Luik/Liège area.
In 72 hours their tests´ positivity rate has turned from 9% to 30%.
The "tsunami" wave of #COVID19 patients seems to have arrived in west #Netherlands´ Den Haag/ The Hague area:

"We need everyone with healthcare knowlegde to come and help" - even in normal care.
"Transferring patients to other regions would help us a lot"
ad.nl/den-haag/coron…
As hospitals all over the #Netherlands seem to have reached their (current) capacity limit for #COVID19 patients, transfer flights to Germany have started.

Today, 2 patients from the Northwest region.
Tomorrow 2 from Southwest,
then 2 from Mid-NL...
hartvannederland.nl/nieuws/2020/co…
Stretched out resources in #Belgium.
The mayor of Luik/Liège has asked the army for help.
They won´t deploy a field hospital (they haven´t any left anyway), but try to re-equip a recently disused hospital building.
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020…
#Slovakia´s Mass-testing campaign has started in areas worst hit by #COVID19.
61.905 rapid tests were performed in 4 counties.
2.225 were found to be "positive & infectious".
(~3.6% of the population there is "currently capable to infect others")
spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/…
Due to low accuracy of rapid tests, #Slovakia´s Prime Minister posted a warning that (statistically) ~4.450 test participants may have received a "negative" result,
but were actually #COVID19 infected and might become infectious later on.
"Stay cautious!"
facebook.com/igor.matovic.7… Image
There´s high "motivation" to take part in #Slovakia´s "voluntary" mass testing:

▫️Only those who can provide a "negative" test result are allowed to leave home.
▫️(Who cannot leave home, cannot work and will therefore get no payments...)
🤷
According to #Slovakia´s Defence Minister (in charge of the test campaign), the rate of "people with currently high viral load" differs among locations:
one town has detected 5.15% "infectious citizens",
another 2.31%, so far.
facebook.com/JaroNadPublic/… Image
#Austria´s hospital occupation with #COVID19 patients is now higher than during the first wave.

(according to their dashboard, there are still
7.558 normal care
637 intensive care
places available)
covid19-dashboard.ages.at/dashboard_Hosp… Image
A one line tweet,
indicating that things might go very bad in parts of #Belgium:

"The hospital center at #Mouscron is going to phase 2B"

Means:
they will operate at 140% capacity
100% beds for #COVID19 patients
40% for normal care

This field hospital in #Prague has 500 beds for #COVID19 survivors.
Those who were successfully treated at emergency hospitals, will come here.

Still, there are 10 intensive care places with ventilation units.
For those who suddenly relapse.
The hospital in #Brno (~200 km east of Prague) just scaled up their #COVID19 treatment to 200 beds.
They already have 100 patients.

Construction of a field hospital with additional 300 places will start on monday.
#Spain has resorted to declare another nation-wide "State of Alert".
Allowing regions to impose curfews, etc.

It will be reviewed after 2 weeks,
but it is expected to be in force for 6 months.
("That´s the time we might need to bend this #2ndWave")
lainformacion.com/espana/estado-…
🤔
Bergamo´s Mayor shares one thing he learnt:

"Anti-contagion measures must be calibrated on future numbers, not on today's ones.
To work they must appear DISPROPORTIONATE compared to today.
If they seem proportionate it is because they are insufficient."
0.
 #Victoria way was successful.
Be aware: the measures to achieve this were deemed "disproportionate" by quite a few.
It's not an easy way. Making sure everyone comes along might be the hardest task...
One very unpopular moment in #Victoria's #COVID19 fight was when they had to announce Stage3 #Lockdown didn't work and they'd have to start Stage4 measures.

The #Netherlands are hesitant:
they're warning that they might warn about "draconic measures" soon
Doctor and President of Region Grand-Est (#France) has urged his staff to prepare for a new #Lockdown.

Not to plan measures (they know, they already had a lockdown),
but to listen, find ways and help people to get through it, this time.
"Zero.

The last time Victoria had zero cases was 9 June, 139 days ago.
(a test campaign just confirmed it)
These results give us confidence — confidence that even if we do identify positive cases in any further tests — we are firmly on top of this virus."
dhhs.vic.gov.au/updates/corona… Image
#Melbourne will move out of lockdown...
Under the Third Step, and from 11:59pm on Tuesday, Melbourne will move from "stay home" to "stay safe", with no more restrictions on the reasons to leave home🍻

The 25-kilometre limit though, will remain in place.⛔️
🇦🇺"We want to reach COVID Normal by Christmas and right now, we're on track to do that."
(#Victoria, back to Zero new #COVID19 cases, today)

Just so that you know, if you´re planning for holidays or family parties in Europe:
🇪🇺It´s a long way to go🙁
ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-… Image
#Berlin heatmap:

Age group 20-24 year olds shows an incidence of 269
(new #COVID19 cases per 100.000 members of that group, in the last 7 days).

(which is roughly the same value which sent Rottal-Inn district in #Bavaria into "#Lockdown", today...)
🙄
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
#Belgium:
"We couldn´t wait any longer"

The hospital of Verviers built a provisional #COVID19 ward, capable to accomodate 34 mild cases.
Okay, office colleagues,

one week from ridiculing those who wear a mask
🤣👉😷
to scolding those who don´t wear masks
😷👉😳👈😷
that´s quite a change.

I wonder what might have triggered that.
All pre-planned healthcare activity in #Czechia is ordered to be stopped.
Everything has to be concentrated on #COVID19 patients, now.
Just like during the first wave, #France has started dozens of medical transfers, from (near) saturated hospitals to other regions.

But this time, in the #2ndWave, it´s difficult:
#COVID19 is everywhere, simultaneously.
Not many "safe havens" to go to...
From a hospital in Grand-Est (#France):

~"2 days ago, 1 in 6 new patients was #COVID19 related.
Yesterday it was 1/4.
Tonight it was every third,
3 in pre-respiratory arrest.
None had comorbidities or was above 65."

And today´s chart of ICU admisssions.
Image
It´s not official (it will be announced tomorrow),
but everyone knows:
#France will have to go into national Re-#Confinement.

Quote from a government-meeting:
"The curfews failed. The only thing that worked was the #Lockdown, earlier"
#Switzerland, today:
"if we happen to manage to expand our ICU capacity from 1.071 to 1.400 beds,
they would be full in 10 days from now."
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/kr… Image
#Belgium, today:

689 hospital admisssions for #COVID19
(new record.
last peak was on March 28th: 629 admisssions)

"it really doesn´t look good..."
#Netherlands,
"I guess we might see the peak soon.
But we can only tell, when numbers really have started to decline"
(Chief modeller of #RIVM)
ad.nl/binnenland/riv…
#Netherlands are seeing stable numbers for a little while now.
(~10.000 new cases per day)
#RIVM guess: it will stay that way or get better.

(Officially, they calculate no effect from kids being back to school after a holiday period, since 3 days now...)
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
#Netherlands´ government statement:
"If we´d take additional measures now, it would not have an impact on the coming peak anyway".

So their plan is to just extend current measures "until December"...

(🤔wouldn´t that also keep current infection rates?)
nos.nl/artikel/235412…
#Belgium´s worst hit communities are all in the greater Liege/Luik region.

Note that 14-day statistical incidence of "6.000(!) new cases/100.000 people" in Butgenbach.

(Actually 342 of 5.629 inhabitants got recently infected, there)
datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo… Image
With hospitals in/around Liege in #Belgium under pressure from #COVID19 patient influx (and infected personnel), neighboring Aaachen district in #Germany has taken over 10 patients in their hospitals.

"It´s mutual aid. We can´t wait for formal agreements"
Town council of hard hit Butgenbach (#Belgium) has already been discussing the drastic #COVID19 numbers and pointed out several fairs to be the reason.

(😖looking at their community photo blog, that might be true - but also plenty of other occasions)
brf.be/regional/14218… Image
The #Netherlands chose a risky gamble:
IF the reproduction factor goes down to ~0.9, "the peak will come so soon, that no #Lockdown will be necessary."

How would you know if it works?
You´d have to look out for marginal changes
and react swiftly...
tweedekamer.nl/kamerleden-en-… Image
Unfortunately, the #Netherlands don´t even have a chance to guess their approximate case numbers today:

"Due to technical problems #RIVM didn´t receive all positive test results..."

All they know is:
the real number is higher than 8.123
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
When questionned by a commission "Why didn't you stop Netherlanders from going on holidays in risk areas abroad?", the head of #RIVM answered:
"There's currently few places worse-off than NL.
So they'd rather bring the virus to elsewhere than importing it"
And then there's #Switzerland, changing their travel restrictions today, saying:
"As we're currently one of the worst-off places, we'll only restrict entry from places that are (much) more worse-off than we."
Leaving only a handful of countries restricted
"November 6, #Belgium's hospital system will implode"

(based on current trends.)

It's a shocking headline.
But if people change their behaviour because of that, it would help
(sadly, the effect would only be noticeable after that date...)
All of #Belgium´s hospitals have issued an appeal:

"A hard #Lockdown !
It´s not one option, it is the only option,
if there is any time left,
to limit the collapse of our health system"...

Their plea is supported by many experts.
hln.be/binnenland/zie…
#Belgium´s Health Minister visited a #COVID19 Intensive Care Unit in Liège, yesterday:
It´s "all hands on deck" in #Belgium,
with students, volunteers, re-trained specialists, army,...
everyone is trying to keep healthcare going, despite huge stress from #COVID19 influx.
Doctors use some free minutes to demand "Stop infections, #Lockdown!"
The spread of infection is increasing at a rapid pace across #Sweden.
(See below.
Note: yesterday´s 3.254 new cases not shown yet)

The increase in the number of infected people is also beginning to show in the number of #COVID19 patients in hospitals (starting in the big cities) Image
In #Sweden:
no indoor staying (shops, museums, etc)
no meetings, no concerts, no sports
no contact with other people (except your household)
no use of public transport (locally)

These rules would make for a lockdown.
Difference: they are "strong advice".

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-pr…
Belgium´s rise in #COVID19 numbers *seems* to go flat...

It is not,
it just became invisible.

Since October 21, #Belgium has stopped testing those who show no symptoms.
datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo… Image
The "Vatican City State" is now regarded as #COVID19 risk area by Germany´s authorities.

"The complete country".
🧐
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
9 days ago, a researcher made a projection how hospitals in #Belgium would get overcrowded, if the rate of #COVID19 growth wouldn´t go down.

Today he checked his forecast again:
"Unfortunately, we are still on roughly the same path against the wall"
One month ago, #Germany´s Chancellor made a projection how "by December" there would be 19.200 #COVID19 cases per day, if the infection rate wouldn´t go down.
She was accused of "fearmongering".

Actually, it wouldn´t take that long.
It might happen today.
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen… Image
Another projection, in #Switzerland today:

"Ladies and Gentlemen,
unfortunately this means, that the capacities of our hospitals will be surpassed."

(Even if this week´s measures would show effect).
Image
#Switzerland:
"We already scrapped all elective treatments in our hospitals (you´ll have to wait for tumor surgery, now). Apparently that didn´t change much in the projected course.
Max capacity will be reached within ~2 weeks. (Red dotted line)"
ncs-tf.ch/de/policy-brie… Image
That escalated quickly

19.200+
😔
Belgium will have its #Lockdown. It will start monday morning.
hln.be/binnenland/ove…
"Knuffelcontact"🥰. Everyone in #Belgium is allowed to have ONE.

If you´re single, you may invite a second person to your home. But beware - never at the same time as your original #knuffelcontact !

(Belgium has wise #Lockdown rules...) Image
#Germany is preparing.
Apparently states are bundled into five groups, who will organize mutual distribution of critical #COVID19 patients.
This is aiming to prevent local saturation of hospitals by even distribution.

It is called "Cloverleaf-Plan"
🍀
zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
The military in #Belgium has now opened their provisional hospital in Liège.
It will take over non-#COVID19 patients to relieve regular hospitals.

But most of their personnel are reservists who work in healthcare. Not many are available, these days...
#Slovakia´s plan to test the entire country seems to be quite a challenge.
Queues of cars formed at testing sites near Bratislava.
"Waiting time is 25 hours, if you´re last in line".

(The traffic jams hindered personnel to get to other test sites as well)
ta3.com/clanok/1195805…
First results of the massive testing in #Slovakia are in:
´Until noon, 858.518 people have been tested.
7.494 of them tested #COVID19 "positive".
That´s roughly one percent´.

The plan is to test 3 millions this weekend.
(They´re using rapid antigen tests)
startitup.sk/aktualne-1-slo…
Oh no.
Massive queues all over #Belgium.
People want to shop before the #Lockdown starts.
Especially #Sinterklaas presents (Santa Claus brings his presents early December, in Belgium - everyone is afraid he would only find closed shops then...)🥺
hln.be/binnenland/ong…
One virologist calculated "you´d certainly stand in line with infected persons"🤧
and #Belgium´s Crisis Center argued "shops will still be able to deliver to you or have things ready for pick-up..."
📦
but queues in front of shops were tremendous, today.
#Netherlands´ RIVM is chilling:
"We have all sorts of indicators that show that it has flattened. And if it doesn't decrease, hospitalizations just remain the same.

In this respect, we can enjoy a relaxed weekend and see how it turns out on Monday."
nos.nl/artikel/235457… Image
Parallel universe:
Brussels´s airport was surprised by a stampede of travellers, today.

Belgium goes into #Lockdown.
One lockdown measure: prolonged holidays for the kids.

Families took the chance and booked last minute flights to sunny spots (Greece, Italy, Canaries...)🙄
hln.be/dossier-corona…
#Slovakia´s mass testing results are in:
2.581.113 citizens have been tested, so far.
Results vary regionally:
some have found 0.31% of people were acutely "infectious", others found 1.84%.
(The rapid test indicates high viral load, therefore "infectious")
spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/…
The mayor of Karlova Ves (#Slovakia) seems very happy that mass testing found "only" 40 of 15.800 tested citizens are capable of spreading #COVID19 infections, right now.

She wants to open cafés, patisseries,...
"If it´s a victory, we should celebrate"
🤷
facebook.com/dana.cahojova/… Image
#COVID19 patients in #Switzerland´s Geneva University Hospitals,
2 weeks ago:
~80 patients

today:
~480 patients
~Saturated
~´dramatic situation´

Now preparing for:
-transfer of patients
-activation of triage protocol
-support from army & civil protection
hug.ch/coronavirus-ma… Image
#Switzerland´s canton of Geneva has declared a
State of Emergency.

It includes #Lockdown-elements (closing/limiting certain activities), in an attempt to slow down #COVID19 infection rates.
ge.ch/document/lutte…
The #Netherlands implemented some "soft" measures (closing bars & restaurants, wearing masks, contact limitations) on October 14.
After a peak ~3 days ago at ~63,
#COVID19 incidence is down to 47.7 today.

Could it be those "mild" restrictions were enough?
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
The #Netherlands´ Coordinator for #COVID19 Patient Distribution states:
"The beginning is here, but the increase hasn't stopped yet."
"It has to flatten quickly and the decline has to be strong, otherwise we´ll be in trouble with postponed regular care"
nos.nl/artikel/235494…
Here´s last weeks RIVM scenario for the current #COVID19 wave in the #Netherlands.
With current "mild" measures the number of ICU patients would still be ~500 on December 1.
With sharper measures, that number would be ~375.

Worth it?
They´ll see tomorrow.
tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/… Image
#Switzerland´s canton of Neuchâtel will stop testing everyone with #COVID19 symptoms.

"There´s no use in testing them - we know 50% (!) of them are positive anyway. It would just be a waist of resources"...
Any symptoms➡️directly into quarantine (no test)
rts.ch/info/suisse/11… Image
A doctor in Fribourg (CH) asked to share his video.
He calmly asks the public for help.
"~Please, do your best to not get infected. Please avoid any accident risk as well."

They have ambulances coming every 15 minutes.

"We🇨🇭are about to fail this task"😔
laliberte.ch/news/regions/c…
#COVID19 Hospital occupation in Fribourg (#Switzerland)
from "everything´s fine, it is under control" (~10)
to "we have lost it" (175)
in 3 weeks.

No warning.
Just a sudden, steady surge.
fr.ch/sites/default/… Image
#COVID19 Test positive rate in Fribourg (Switzerland)
from "no worries, it´s just 6%" (week 40)
to "every second test is now positive!" (week 44/45, reportedly, not pictured yet)

No warning.
The test regime in place couldn´t serve as an early indicator.
fr.ch/de/gesundheit/… Image
"shield the old,
so that the young can party on"

It failed in #Berlin.

Age group 90+ with incidence of 304.8
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Germany´s #RKI has just issued substantial changes to their testing policy:

"It´s not our goal to detect all cases"

Testing will be limited to important cases, accepting there will actually be #COVID19 infected persons who will not qualify for testing !
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Reason for #RKI´s new test regime:

Flu/cold season is starting !
Loads of people with "flulike symptoms" would just crash Germany´s testing capacities...

So, ONE way to qualify for a test is having severe symptoms / high likelyhood (by context) it´s actually #COVID19. Image
The OTHER way to qualify for a test under #RKI´s new guideline:

Having even mild symptoms AND being likely to be / become part of a new #Cluster !
(or belonging to the group of ´vulnerable persons´ or healthcare personnel)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
If you´re just a poor soul, suffering from a (maybe) seasonal cold, #RKI´s new guideline has a special treat(ment) for you:

NO test
BUT 5 day isolation at home
(at least until 48h after your last mild symptoms have gone ...) Image
Berlin !

ICU occupation with #COVID19 patients jumped from 13.7% sunday
to 17.1% monday.🚨

Entire #Berlin´s incidence is indicated as 178.1,
locally 324.9 (Neukölln)
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
"It´s going well,
but not good enough..."

The #Netherlands have decided:
since earlier restrictions just flattened the #COVID19 curve,
but didn´t bend it downwards fast enough,
a 2 week sharpened period will now be implemented.
Most of #Netherland´s sharpened measures will come into force tomorrow and might expire after 2 weeks (if indicators go down).

But one rule changed substantially:

DO NOT TRAVEL OUTSIDE NL !
(instead of "reduce travel")

valid until ~January 2021 (🏂🚫!)
rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/pub… Image
As the #Netherlands see large regional differences in #COVID19 case numbers, additional "wave breaking" measures are being discussed:
Regions with high incidence *might* see:
- night curfew
- school closings
- shop restrictions

(not decided yet)
nos.nl/artikel/235511…
As everyone likes to colour out maps, tonight:
south-west #France has just turned red.
north-east is at 43.4%, so will be red, soon.

Note: One of the dark red areas in central France is operating at 120% capacity.
#COVID19
#ICUoccupation
Some good news:
#COVID19 incidence seems to havd peaked all over #France.

And test positivity has flattened off at ~20%.
(so the peak in incidence is not an effect of less testing...)
Germany´s most dominant #COVID19 hotspot is currently #Augsburg (Bavaria).

Their 7-day incidence is right now flattening at ~350

(but they found out that´s not their biggest problem...)
augsburg.de/umwelt-soziale… Image
#Augsburg Health Authority:
"Many have no clue they are infected.
We guess we know only 1 out of 4-8 actual infections."

Their guesstimate:
1-2 percent of Augsburg´s population is acutely infected.

"High risk of infection in the city.
Please stay home."
augsburg.de/presse-kommuni… Image
There´s only a handful of nightflight capable rescue/medictransfer helicopters in #Germany.
A bunch of them is busy around the clock since last night.

It seems "Operation Cloverleaf" has been activated.
(even distribution of #COVID19 patients, to avoid local saturation) Image
Very likely those rescue helicopters were doing "Cloverleaf" #COVID19 saturation-relief transfers.

One started from Mannheim (large city with vast amount of hospitals, but only 10% free ICU beds left).
The other from Miltenberg (0% free ICU beds).
experience.arcgis.com/experience/3a1… Image
#Switzerland is trying to distribute #COVID19 patients from saturated areas to other regions as well.
It's not running smoothly yet. (Northern cantons hesitate to cancel planned surgery - there were tense moments in CH's Federal Council conference, today.)
The situation in #Denmark´s North Jutland.
Locally, maybe globally,

in one word:
A concise description of the situation in #Denmark´s North Jutland region:
The reason for sealing off North Jutland is:
June 2020: Local mink farms were found to be infected with #COVID19, minks were culled.
Mink industry intervened, culling stopped and less drastic measures (personnel protection) introduced instead...
thelocal.dk/20201014/why-d…
Denmark´s measures to contain #COVID19 infections to mink farms weren´t effective.
By October the virus had infected personnel, spread to several more farms and had also found its way into a nursing home...

Denmark´s Disease Institute warned of mutations.
information.dk/indland/leder/…
Yesterday:
"#Denmark's health minister said AROUND HALF of 783 infected Danes in Northern Denmark, home to a large number of #mink farms, had been infected with a virus strain stemming from the farms."

(it was clearly getting out of control...)
news.trust.org/item/202011041…
At an emergency press conference, #Denmark´s Prime Minister announced urgent measures to "immediatley reduce transmission of the mutated #mink virus to humans".

Even to affected towns it wasn´t clear what that meant...
bronderslev.dk/Service/Nyhede…
(auto translated version below): Image
Today,
restrictions for #Denmark´s North Jutland were announced.

It´s a complete #Lockdown.
(well, nordic style: with schools open and appeals like "please judge for yourself if crossing the municipal boundary is really urgent now"...
bronderslev.dk/Service/Nyhede… Image
#COVID19 infected #mink had been detected earlier, in the #Netherlands (April 2020).
By May 2020, a first mink-human transmission was thought to have taken place there.

(Slides from a recent #RIVM presentation):
tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/… Image
At a recent hearing, Netherlands´#RIVM was asked about a #COVID19 mutation in minks, that had already infected 2 thirds of employees at 16 mink farms in NL...
(jump to 1h:43min:30sec mark)
debatgemist.tweedekamer.nl/debatten/updat… Image
According to #RIVM, the #mink-virus mutation in the #Netherlands had only spread to "a few workers" at the farms and their families.
But "no residents nearby".

(In RIVM´s view the outbreak in #Denmark was "infinitely worse due to delayed action") ImageImage
#Denmark´s worries now, due to the #mink-virus mutations:
"We could be known as the country that ruined the last half a year of vaccine work"

And Danes could be "denied entry to all the countries of the world"
thelocal.dk/20201105/how-s…
And certainly,
"all the countries of the world" now have their eyes on #Denmark...
Switzerland´s National COVID19 Science Task Force:
> There´s no clear evidence of a trend reversal.
> The limits of the health system could be reached
> with substantial economic damage.

The number of infections needs to be reduced as quickly as possible.
#Oslo will go into "Social Shutdown":

"Norway is now at the start of the second wave of #COVID19. We have a last chance to stop the pandemic with very strict measures..."

NO indoor social activity allowed,
except meeting in private homes.
oslo.kommune.no/english/corona… Image
That´s why #Denmark (and the world) is on high alert about the #COVID19 mutation in #mink:

"We have indications that this unique mutation might have a reduced response to (current) anti-bodies"
(still needs more testing)

➡️bad for "herd immunity"/vaccine
Image
"Due to technical issues, the numbers reported may not represent the true results"

(Wait! Chill out, will you ?!
That´s for #COVID19 tests in #France...!)
There´s a backlog of ~300.000 results.
The largest employers´ organisation in the #Netherlands has an idea:

"The Tested Society"

In aiming to "unlock" the Netherlands it would use 2 million #COVID19 tests per week (for a start...)

Their plan would have 3 phases.
vno-ncw.nl/nieuws/ingrid-…
"The Tested Society" (NL)
Phase 1 - Blow it out

Erase #COVID19 (by 85%) from a hotspot region (~1 million people)
Without lockdown,
by testing the entire population 2-3 times in 10 days.

"Positives" will be isolated.

Would take 7.000 testers
Costs 30-50 million € (per region) Image
"Tested Society" (NL)
Phase 2 - Back to Summer 2020

Restaurants and all workplaces open again, 1.5m distance
Tests for all symptoms & Contact tracing
You may be allowed to go working while in #Quarantine, a daily test would be required for that.

2 m tests/ week
20-40m €/ week Image
"Tested Society" (NL)
Phase 3 - "Almost Normal"

Everything reopens
No distancing anymore

You just need your daily test result to enter anything...

Wastewater surveillance for #COVID19 markers would show new outbreaks.
Outbreak: everyone will be tested again
50-100 m€/week Image
#Switzerland´s National #COVID19 Science Task Force is also fond of testing:

"It´s a relatively cheap measure - a test for every Swiss adult per month would cost 1 billion CHF"
and
"2.000 contact tracers would only cost 0.5% of a partial lockdown´s cost"
Image
And there´s still #Slovakia:
The second mass testing is on today.
Not the whole country, this time.

Those areas who had less than 0.7% #COVID19 "positive" results in the first tests last week, don´t need to test their population again.
First results of today´s second mass testing in #Slovakia say:
This morning, the first 553.377 antigen tests confirmed a positive result for a total of 3,677 citizens.

("only" 0.66 percent of the total number tested were positive, so far)
spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/…
A brief look at the situation in #Switzerland:
Yesterday (friday) #Geneva´s University Hospital had "4 free beds left in intensive care".

(They became free as their occupants died)
Since ~3 days ago Geneva´s University Hospital has been able to transfer some patients to other parts of #Switzerland
and some to other cliniques in the region.

Otherwise, they´d have to deal with 582 #COVID19 patients today.
(They called for help at 474)
hug.ch/coronavirus-ma… Image
#Slovakia´s Prime Minister is fond of testing:
"#COVID19 Antigen-Testing could lead to a freer life".
"If Bratislava wants to reopen cinemas, theaters, etc, they could test their population repeatedly over a 2-3 week period"
spravy.pravda.sk/domace/clanok/…
South Tyrol (#Italy) has rapidly rising #COVID19 numbers.
They already limited their tests to those who show symptoms.

Meanwhile, their rate of positive tests is 73%😲
rainews.it/tgr/tagesschau…
An example how sewage surveillance can be used to detect new outbreaks in a near-#COVID19-free society.

(but then, as action, Australia's #NSW still only wants to test those with symptoms...😐
isn't that kind of throwing the advantage away?)
It does not magically "go away" - not even in #Japan.

Hokkaido sees a record number of 200 new #COVID19 cases today.

It has not arrived in hospitals, yet.
But it is spreading rapidly. People are still in "reopened" mood and it´s not easy to switch back.
Image
#Japan´s #COVID19 advisory council warns of "potentially rapid spreading of infections across the country" and urges for immediate action...

(but proposed actions are rather ´mild´, like "building a relationship of trust with the local community"...)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
At least,
#Japan´s governmernt is contemplating to exempt Hokkaido from the national "GO TO Travel" campaign.
It was designed to encourage everyone in Japan to travel a lot through the country, to revive domestic economy.

🛄#COVID19 would like that.🤧
news.tbs.co.jp/newseye/tbs_ne…
There´s good news for the #Netherlands !

(according to their #COVID19 Patient Distribution Coordinator´s smile-o-meter...)
nu.nl/284255/video/l… Image
"In less than a week, (#Netherlands´) hospital occupation fell by 300, that´s fantastic."

"Do you think the stricter #Lockdown´s duration needs to be extended?"

"No. No - just this week,
we can end it after 14 days, like it was planned..."

nos.nl/artikel/235588… Image
"But last week you were somewhat worried..."

"Yes, when we were standing here a week ago, case numbers just kept rising - by 80, 100 cases per day. At a time when we had expected to see if our measures worked... and we didn´t see it"
nu.nl/284255/video/l… Image
So it was just decided that Hokkaido will still "profit" from #Japan's tourism promotion campaign.

"The current spread of infections is not due to Go To Travel and we don't want it to be removed."

😕
Maybe not the current spread.
But the coming spread.
😳 Winter tourism is an important part of Hokkaido's economy.
Season starts soon.
And people will come. From all over #Japan (and maybe some countries on Japan's #COVID19 travel allowance list).
Switzerland´s Canton of #Geneva is now doing ~3.000 #COVID19 tests per day.

And every second one tuns out to be "positive".
ge.ch/document/20094… Image
Åh !?
#Sweden's latest reported #COVID19 case number says:
3.419 new cases (this monday)

while one week ago,
monday's case count was
1.570 new cases

What is going on there?! 😦 Image
Something's substantially changing in #Sweden.
Even their #COVID19 press conference was held online for the first time, today:

"We see a clear change of trend - infections are surging and it's mostly the younger population (20-59 years)"
In ICU too.
😦
omni.se/35-nya-dodsfal…
Japan´s #COVID19 situation, this morning:

Osaka: "looks like we´re in the 3rd wave"
Tokyo: "obviously, a new phase is beginning"

Disease institute: ~"clusters are everywhere, not only where they used to be"
😟
news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/80586…
For Tokyo, it may not be a "#3rdWave".
Obviously, they never really exited the second wave.

But today´s spike is the highest since August.
(It includes some results of people who finally decided to organize a privately paid test themselves...)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
For Osaka, the second wave never really went away.
It kept on boiling on low flame...
until case numbers began slowly rising 3 weeks ago.

Today,
it culminated in the highest case number, #Osaka has ever seen.
256 new #COVID19 cases.
covid19-osaka.info/en/ Image
Some might guess there *might* be a reason for Japan´s #COVID19 case numbers incline in the last 3 weeks...

"Until recently, screenings have been held at 50% capacity, but theaters can now fill every seat"

And so they did -recordbreakingly- October 16th.
japantimes.co.jp/culture/2020/1…
Osaka prefecture is a bit shocked by today´s record #COVID19 case number.

They urged people to adopt new measures to stop the spread. The measures:

"Please do not talk while enjoying your meal"😲🔇
(and wear a mask at other times)😷

That´s basically it.
Regions become anxious in #Sweden:
"The Region of Dalarna is in a very serious situation.
With a rapid spread of infection, the region can no longer wait for a decision from the Swedish Public Health Agency – which will never come..."
(regional councilor)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6d… Image
"(Health Agency´s announcements) feel like a lottery. We have to put in the resources now, not when things are getting *really* bad. We are prepared and need a decision – now.

⏱️If we don't get a decision tomorrow, we'll make a decision ourselves."
aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/bnnR…
Dalarna isn´t the only region in #Sweden to urge for action:
"We´re discussing with Health Agency, but have chosen to speed up the introduction, because we see that it is needed. The spread of infection has increased in #Blekinge, even among the elderly."
regionblekinge.se/om-webbplatsen… Image
It´s not a revolution in #Sweden.
It´s just that regions feel central Health Agency FHM takes too long to recognize the grade of severness in their region.

And therefore they declare the usual "advisory" measures from #FHM´s template by themselves.
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-ber…
Sweden´s #Dalarna region has finally got what they pressed for.
Together with 3 other regions, they received official "stronger advise" from #Sweden´s Health authority FHM, today.

(Yes, it still remains voluntary to follow the advice)
regiondalarna.se/press/nyheter-… Image
Do #Sweden´s "voluntary" measures work?

Health Authority #FHM says so.

(#Uppsala introduced "stronger advice" 3 weeks ago. And maybe the growth slowed down, now.
Too early to see, official numbers pictured below are from last week...)
Image
Actually,
the number of #Japan´s new #COVID19 cases was later revised up to 1.660
😟
With local records in Osaka, Hokkaido,...
It´s obvious.
This is not under control.
Image
#Tokyo´s governor repeated her calls for people to
wash their hands,
wear masks,
avoid closed, crowded and close-contact settings
and carry out frequent ventilation of rooms.
And to not forget to disinfect door knobs & tables.

🙄that´s all.
#recordCOVID19
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
All the while,
Sapporo / #Hokkaido held a ritual "Health & Safety" prayer to prepare for the opening of the tourist attracting ski-season, next week...
🙏
They plan to disinfect ropeway gondolas after each roundtrip.
#recordCOVID19
stv.jp/news/stvnews/u…
At the same time, #Hokkaido´s Medical Association warns:

"If this situation goes on for another week, our medical system here will collapse".

#recordCOVID19
#Japan
stv.jp/news/stvnews/u…
Austria´s semi-#Lockdown didn´t work.
Here´s their new plan:

A full Lockdown for 3 weeks, with schools and almost all shops closed. A curfew as well.
"We have to act immediately..."

So they will start it on Tuesday (in ~3 days).🙄
Image
...and as Austria´s full #Lockdown will only start in 3 days,
everyone wants to go shopping now.
(And hey - why not? Shoes are half-price today...)
😫
heute.at/s/riesen-anstu…
"OF COURSE children and adolescents can get infected AND infect others, too. All claims they couldn´t have been proven wrong.

Our 10-14 year olds have an incidence of 250."

(#Austria´s Chancellor)
Oh.
that press conference is getting interesting, now...
Image
Austria vs. Switzerland

both countries have ~same population size
(AT 8.8 million, CH 8.6 million).
They are neighbours.

Switzerland has local semi-#Lockdowns. They seem to work.
Austria´s semi-lockdown slowed the surge, but couldn´t turn it around.
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co… Image
🤔
Somehow, new case numbers in the #Netherlands keep hovering at a daily incidence of ~35 (still quite high).

Despite "stricter #Lockdown rules" that came into force on November 3.

On November 19, NL will go back to less strict "partly lockdown" rules... Image
...the "partly #Lockdown" rules in the Netherlands came into force on October 12.
Case numbers kept rising for *3 weeks* after that.

Strange...
Maybe we´d need to calculate in how long it takes for people to *really* change their behaviour...?
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Brussel´s military hospital is specialized in treating severe burns.
Today, they are expecting a patient from #Romania.
A young doctor, who had tried to save patients from a #COVID19 ward in Piatra Neamt.

The ward had rapidly burst into flames, yesterday.
agerpres.ro/eveniment/2020… Image
Doctors in #Romania warn about the possible causes of the ICU fire in Piatra Neamt:

too many #COVID19 patients in wards
high demand on O2 supply, electricity
installations can´t cope
devices aren´t calibrated for that

"it´s a time bomb"
romania.europalibera.org/a/medici-trage…
"Almost all of #Sweden's regions have reached or are close to reaching their current maximum capacity for corona tests..."

They are thinking about sending people ´who have almost certainly´ #COVID19 (due to symptoms/ context) to isolation without tests.
sverigesradio.se/artikel/7599564
#Stockholm has already rationed #COVID19 tests.
"Due to high demand from nursing homes, they have testing priority now.

If you have symptoms, just stay at home.
You can try to get one of a few open test slots per day. If you get no test, still stay home!"
sll.se/verksamhet/hal… Image
"A long time without any cases and then this outbreak"...
It took ~a week for South #Australia to realize one worker of a quarantine hotel had brought the virus out of his workplace.

This is the spread they have found, so far:
abc.net.au/news/2020-11-1… Image
A member of the Cluster Countermeasure Group, sent by #Japan´s government to Sapporo:

"the number of clusters has exceeded the response capacity since the middle of last month."😳

They are concentrating on "high impact" clusters like nursing homes, now.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
#COVID19 Clusters in #Japan have surged to (at least) 130 per week.

Major cluster environments:
28 clusters in restaurants,
27 in welfare facilities (nursing homes),
22 in companies and government offices,
17 in medical institutions,
16 in schools
etc.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
Japan´s stimulus programme "GoTo Eat" had stimulated more than visits to gastronomy.
(Restaurants are ranked No.1 locations for #COVID19 clusters in #Japan).

At least, those vouchers may soon be valid only for groups of 4 guests or less...

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
The time of friendly "advice" is over in #Sweden.😲

"The increasing spread of coronavirus and the increasing strain on the health care situation in Sweden have led the government
to move from recommendations🙏🥺
to explicit bans."✋😠
svt.se/nyheter/inrike…
Actually, #Sweden´s governmet still cannot really prohibit swedish citizens from going anywhere.

But they can limit the number of people in one place...!

(That in turn might close down a lot of venues, due to lack of guests - it´s kind of drastic.)
Sweden´s largest cinema chain is already planning to close.
"It's unclear, #FHM (Sweden´s disease center) didn't tell us about it, but they don't seem to be fully coordinated.
As we and our lawyer have understood this, the 8 person limit applies to us."
svt.se/kultur/filmsta…
(Technically this is still some "advice" from #Sweden´s PM.
Let´s say it´s a bit emphasized.)

"Do your duty. Don't go to the gym, don't go to libraries, don't have parties.
Cancel all this.
Don't make up excuses that would make your activity sound okay."
South #Australia finds out about the scale of their outbreak:
One traveller brought it to a quarantine hotel on ~November 2
One worker brought it out of the hotel to their family ~a week ago

21 cases outside of quarantine hotels have been detected by now.
abc.net.au/news/2020-11-1…
In case you´d think "21 cases in a week, that´s not a big deal..."

Here´s the list of (some) places those persons had visited.
Already 4.000 people are quarantined as close contacts.
And that list is getting longer....
sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connec… Image
There are several testing stations around #Adelaide.
They managed to perform 6.000 tests yesterday.
All current cases are said to have no or mild symptoms.
So the advice to only "monitor for symptoms" is something that is criticized in South #Australia.

And: masks are only "advised" on public transport.
(while bus lines on list of contact spots)
Image
Hospital coordinator at press conference:

"This morning 09:30 a.m., there were 34 ´certified´ (high quality) ICU beds left available in whole #Switzerland.

At 12:30, they were all filled up.

At the moment, we have 240 non-certified beds left."
Image
A good sign, maybe?

The number of #COVID19 patients in #Geneva is suddenly dropping.
But 606 is still too high. (When they had 474, they had called for assistance).

The number in ICU & intermediate care is 80 today,
it was 56 about 2 weeks ago.
hug.ch/coronavirus-ma… Image
I triple-checked.
Yes, it´s the official twitter account of the Federal Police in eastern #France´s departement Vosges.

"MAKE THE VIRUS WEAK AGAIN. YES WE CAN"
or a reminder to have an attestation with you, when leaving house during the confinement.

❤️🤣
Image
I checked that, too:
it´s really the official twitter channel of the dutch government, with a press announcement, that the "urgent advice" to wear facemasks in public rooms will become mandatory, soon

(no one in that room was wearing a mask...)
🙄🤣
Image
Tokyo has just reported
493 new #COVID19 cases in one day.

That´s the highest count ever.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
#Tokyo🚨📢
"RED ALERT - Infections are spreading in the city!"

😱 Oh no - what can we do !?!!

"The officials appear to be undecided about whether to ask restaurants and bars to shorten their business hours."

😳 Oh.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
"South #Australia will pause, and PEOPLE WILL NEED TO REMAIN AT HOME FOR THE NEXT 6 days.

Please remain calm and we will provide further detail as soon as we can."

South Australia is introducing a full 'Circuit Breaker' #Lockdown, a few hours from now.
covid-19.sa.gov.au/response Image
If you'd like to drive people into panic mode, try announcing a short term #Lockdown together with information like "We're not yet sure what is about to close. You will need to wait for further information".

It never failed, so far...
#Japan has added the highest spike ever to its #COVID19 curve.

"In the 2nd wave, the targets were clear", but now #Clusters appear everywhere, even in rural areas...
It's becoming difficult to take action.
Image
"Scenes of utter panic and chaos"
in South #Australia

(ahum.... that´s what the commentator in the video says, but...)

They show people queueing up nicely, everywhere!
That must be the most orderly form of "out of control" I´ve ever seen...🧍‍♀️🧍🧍‍♂️🧍‍♀️🧍🧍‍♂️🚶‍♀️
So we know now, South #Australia folks are pretty chill.
😎
I´d guess if they urge
you (AND EVERYONE with you)
to IMMEDIATELY self-quarantine
& seek testing (but WARN THE TEST CREW in advance)

something might be brewing...
🙄🤨🤔
It turned out, one (infected) security guard from a quarantine hotel in South #Australia was also working part time as a pizza baker.
Meanwhile it is believed that he might have infected the pizza delivery guy,
who distributed pizza (and maybe infections)
couriermail.com.au/news/national/… Image
South #Australia observed some peculiar properties of their #Outbreak´s virus strain:

"It has a very, very short incubation period,
that means when somebody gets exposed, it is taking 24 hours or even less for that person to become infectious to others."
abc.net.au/news/health/20…
About South #Australia´s #COVID19 strain:
It replicates very fast and it spreads asymptomatically.

"Go in early and go in hard, that´s the way to go.

WHO has got to look hard at its policy (discouraging #Lockdowns) because, quite frankly, they´re wrong."
abc.net.au/radio/programs…
There are a steady 35 active cases in South #Australia

"We are putting a DOUBLE RING FENCE around all of those people..."

Quarantining all their close contacts, and then those contacts' close contacts means:
3.200 people are currently in quarantine.
#Victoria has suddenly found "fragments of SARS-CoV-2 virus" in sewage water in 2 towns.

They could be from people of Victoria.
But (as those towns lie along major transit routes) it *could be* they stem from people who brought it from South #Australia...
South #Korea:
#COVID19 numbers have doubled in ~1 week.
And outbreaks are manifesting all over the country, now...
😳
One #Cluster example from South #Korea:
One in a family of 3 tested "positive" 5 days ago.

The infection is now being found in the family's
Acquaintances
Acquaintances' families
Acquaintances' coworkers
...
New case numbers in #Tokyo:
"the most ever reported"
again, today.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Experts say that infection is now spreading rapidly.

The pandemic alert is raised to its highest level, but it's unclear what effect that will have on daily life.

Japan´s Prime Minister had a simple message for residents:
be safe.
and have quiet dining.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Record #COVID19 case numbers all over #Japan.

Still:
no reduced opening times,
and government's stimulus programmes for travelling the country and eating out remain largely unchanged.

It's being regarded as a problem to be solved by individual behaviour.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Yes, #Japan had already shown, their large collective effort can prevent the entire country from collapsing.

Back in 2011, an indicator showed remaining power capacity in realtime.
People adapted their consumption.

😕Don't try this with hospital beds!
enterpriseirregulars.com/40343/tepco-us… Image
Everything is connected...

In #France,
the energy grid supplier warns to "watch out":
#COVID19 has postponed maintenance in many nuclear power plants.

They will run out of fuel/need maintenace in February 2021.
They hope there'll be no "abnormal weather"
"A cold wave with a couple of days of 2° to 7°C below normal could cause 'difficulties' in providing #France with electricity"

(because #COVID19 has hampered maintenace of nuclear power plants)
They have just issued an indicator, so that everyone in #France can adapt their personal energy consumption to keep the #energy grid from crashing...

(#COVID19 has wider effects)
South #Australia will end its extraordinary statewide full #Lockdown soon.
Actually 3 days early.

The reason is
bizarre
Wait for it...
abc.net.au/news/2020-11-2…
South #Australia´s restriction changes come after contact tracers uncovered one case linked to the Woodville Pizza Bar deliberately misled investigations.

(It was believed he might have cought #COVID19 from a take-out pizza box, via a ´new super-strain´)
Yet, there have been real #COVID19 transmissions.
And the contact tracing still needs to go on.

But it´s not about a ´new, highly contagious super-strain´ anymore. So it is deemed unneccessary to keep entire South #Australia in #Lockdown for much longer.
Seems South #Australia folks do only have a limited amount of chill...
(at least that´s what authorities seem to imply by placing a police guard in front of that pizza shop that is said to have started the statewide total #Lockdown)
#Finnland has been fighting hard,
and as of last week they were presented as THE role model for controlling #COVID19.

Now they have rapidly surging case numbers.
They just announced the Capital region has now entered the "Corona-Spreading" stage.
#Finland
"The coronavirus epidemic in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area has increased alarmingly in the last few days."
#COVID19
hel.fi/uutiset/en/kau…
#Helsinki, Finland:
"#COVID19 infections have of late spread via close social contact in homes, private parties and events, workplaces and leisure activities."
hel.fi/helsinki/koron… Image
#Finland, 3 days ago:

"We are still in a very different situation from the rest of Europe...
Of course, the risks are still the same, and we should not be lulled into thinking this is a permanent condition. Europe shows how the epidemic can accelerate."
hs.fi/kotimaa/art-20…
Also 3 days ago,
a researcher from Helsinki pointed out that #Finland´s #COVID19 defence was missing one essential point:

Aerosols !

(Finland´s position is still:
"the virus is primarily spread by droplets")
thl.fi/en/web/infecti… Image
Meanwhile, Japan´s #COVID19 expert panel states:

"We´ve seen earlier, that when an infection spreads this far, people's behavioral changes alone will not be enough.

That's why we proposed strong measures, including a review of the Go To Campaign..."
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
#Sweden:
"It is now very clear that the virus is airborne"
"Masks will be a contribution -not the only thing-
Increase of ventilation AND masks will together have an effect on limiting the spread of the virus".
sverigesradio.se/artikel/7603494
#Tokyo reports a record number of new #COVID19 cases. Again.

Those numbers came in early, today.
And numbers of the following days might be far lower.

It´s a long holiday weekend - no one stays in the cities...
Monday´s a public holiday,
the government´s "GoTo Travel" stimulus pays for part of the travel costs.

So everyone is leaving the big cities of #Japan.
To flee from the #pandemic and restrictions.
Most are going to meet their multigenerational families.
😕
asahi.com/articles/ASNCP…
The sale of new sponsored tickets may be halted.
But everyone is already gone...
😳
That came unexpected:
#Tokyo´s "positive" test results are down.

But not as much as expected.
Despite tenthousands having fled the city, for a long weekend,
they count 391 new cases today.
Last sunday´s number was ´only´ 255...
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
😱
Usually, sunday´s numbers are a bit low in Osaka.
But today they set a new all-time record:

490 new #COVID19 cases.
(Yesterday was 415
last week´s sunday was ´only´ 266)

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
🤨
It is 3 weeks, now.
3 weeks of "#Lockdown light" in #Germany.

Bars and restaurants closed,
cinemas and theatres too.
Some (merely symbolic) ´contact restrictions´...

"At least the growth is broken - we should call it a success!"
🙄
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da… Image
Daily leisure activities are restricted by #Germany´s "#Lockdown light".

Yet infections have only been slowed down to levelling out at a high plateau.

Where do folks still get infected?
#RKI gives a hint in yesterday´s sitrep:
➡️"school and workplace"⬅️
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Never before has a swedish Prime Minister adressed his people twice on live TV.

Never before has the right of gathering for Swedes been restricted like now.

"All the things that you would like to do, but are not necessary:
Stop, Cancel, Postpone!"
"What we are doing now affects what Christmas celebrations will look like,

Who will still be with us this Christmas.

It may sound harsh. It may sound brutal.
But that's just how harsh and brutal reality is."
😳

(from Sweden´s PM adress to the Nation:)
regeringen.se/tal/2020/11/st…
An interesting #Cluster in South Korea (Yongin City):

#Covid19 infections started in a "Kids´Café",
spread to the kids´ families,
from there into a nursing home
and made it into a "preschool"...

(cross-generational spread,
within just a few days.)
Following the "Kids´ Café" #COVID19 outbreak, South Korea´s City of #Yongin is now closing 865 childrens´ facilities.
Affecting 30.000 children
and 7.700 staff

"For the safety of the children"

(if I read this right):
yongin21.co.kr/news/articleVi…
That "Kids´ Café" #Cluster in #Yongin (South Korea) spreads further:

(Note: those preschool ´students´ are usually 3-5 years old.)
That´s extraordinary for #Germany:
the quiet, rural district of #Hildburghausen is reporting a 7-day incidence of nearly 500, today.

"~There´s no confinement to infections at all - all age groups, all localities are concerned"
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/media/custom/2… Image
One weird thing:
the town #Suhl, just to the north of #Hildburghausen (482.6), has an incidence of 29.9

That´s almost as "clean" as it can get in #Germany, these days!

(That will mean a challenge to install working restrictions in just one district...)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
What caused the extraordinary surge of #COVID19 in #Hildburghausen?
"There had been two private events, where a lot of people got infected. They had been authorized by authorities...
Meanwhile the spread is extensive, from small kids to old age."
😕😳
mdr.de/thueringen/sue… Image
The partly-#Lockdown´s magic is gone...

Case numbers stopped their decline in the #Netherlands.
And so does hospital admission (ICU occupation with #COVID19 patients is even slightly rising, today).
nos.nl/artikel/235790… Image
Mobile phone data shows, what people in #Japan did during the long public holiday weekend...

They were fleeing/avoiding the high infections of Tokyo and Hokkaido,
while rushing to the less struck country side.
(this shows movement, not infections - yet.)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
A first move.
Upon their own request, #COVID19 hotspot cities of Osaka and Sapporo will soon be exempt from #Japan´s travel stimulus.

Government´s travel vouchers will not apply to travel to these cities. (Certain) cancellation fees will be covered.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Meanwhile in #France,
"the peak of this second wave is over"

(according to the President in his Adress to the Nation):
Wait... "the peak is over" doesn´t mean "it´s back to normal"!

Confinement will only fall on December 15,
if there´s less than 5.000 new cases a day.
(today it´s ~9.000).

France is disappointed.🙁

Although they certainly can make it happen.
Meanwhile in #Switzerland:
(excess mortality of the second wave is significant)

Good news: fastest decrease in infections happens in the worst hit areas now.
Image
South #Australia found out
the recent #COVID19 outbreak was not only brought out from one of their quarantine hotels - there were even infections (personnel->quaratinees?) happening inside the facility...
South #Australia is now working on major changes in their #quarantine system:
~no hotel for "positive" travellers, but at pllice-guarded medical facilities
~mandatory testing *before* boarding a flight to Australia
#Tokyo sees a "drastic rise in severe #COVID19 cases".

Today: 54 in "severe" hospital treatment.
Until 2 days ago it was constantly hovering around ~40.

😳
Now we know what colour was reserved for #COVID19 incidences above 500:

it´s fancy PINK!
(for #Hildburghausen, 526.9
First time ever a district in #Germany has reached that level...)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
In response to record #COVID19 numbers,
#Hildburghausen has issued a general decree.

Main point is: schools have to close.
(otherwise it´s the most liberal "lockdown extra light" I´ve seen so far in Germany...).
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/media/custom/2… Image
Tonight, a crowd of people rallied against #Hildburghausen´s measures.
#Germany´s twitter goes crazy because ´no one was wearing masks´😱
(well, the district´s decree doesn´t even mandate them in this context...🤷)

I´ll leave it with this chinese comment:
Oh.

583 (553 locally acquired) new #COVID19 cases in South Korea.
That's ~200 more than yesterday.

(in fact:
the highest number since...
March?!)
🚨
South Korea's highest number
since early March.

Back then, the high numbers were due to outbreaks in typical settings (night-life, churches,...)

Today:
"We are now in a situation where virus outbreaks can happen at any place we live in"

😫
602.9
#Hildburghausen
(and it´s spreading to neighbouring "Suhl",
which has lost its "yellow" ranking - their incidence jumped from ~35 to 65 today.)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Another index, a different colour:
#Hildburghausen is red now.

That means:
all beds in intensive care are full.

(it´s a small clinic with just 8 ICU beds.
"Only" 2 are occupied by #COVID19 patients. Both on ventilators.)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/3a1… Image
Yes, #Hildburghausen is a small district, so every single #COVID19 case will cause a large jump in their incidence.

(And then: every single death will leave a real gap in such a community. Apparently 2 died yesterday.
Other sources say: 3 more today...)
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/media/custom/2… Image
Oh no.
Don't trust your car's air condition !!!
Certain circumstances (tunnels, heat, cold) will let it *automatically* switch to recirculate mode!

My trial in August:
-1 person
-air con on, "fresh air" mode

-> from 500 to 1.400 ppm CO2 in 20 minutes!
😵
Image
I see comments like "What a shame, we (Germany) do send aid to remote places of the world - but we don't install a field hospital in #Hildburghausen to relief the crowded hospital from #COVID19 cases."

Well,
The most remote places just manage #COVID19:
"Everyone is urged to leave the city center"

#Rotterdam´s mayor decided to shut all shops,
due to "extreme crowding" in the city.

It´s "#BlackFriday".
#BlackFriday while #COVID19 cases in NL are staying constantly high.
A balancing act between interests.

(with priorities, obviously...)
When tourism service ´MustSeeRotterdam´ tweets

"It´s really too crowded here, folks ! Go home please !"

You know it´s serious.
🔊"...for your own health: go home ! Shops will close now!"

#BlackFriday #Rotterdam
#Netherlands´ disease center #RIVM:

"Second wave may not be over until March"
Why?
- fewer working from home
- less sense of urgency
- "last weekend, shopping streets were quite crowded"
(that interview took place before pictures of #BlackFriday came in).
nos.nl/artikel/235840…
Q: Why were infection numbers decreasing much faster in the beginning?
#RIVM "might be the effect of school holidays"

Slovakia has reduced its numbers via testing...
RIVM "yes, but they also closed schools"

Why don´t we close schools?
RIVM "~We as a society chose not to do so."
NL´s #RIVM: "the infections in 20-24 year olds have decreased (bars are closed).
Now the main infections are in 15-20 olds. That could be the older high school students....

And another important group is 50-60 year olds. They clearly get infected at work (besides at home)."
NL´s #RIVM:
"#School settings may make up for ~8.5% of infections (with known origin(!)).
That doesn´t say it happens *in* schools, it may be *around* schools.

School setting infections are (only) half of infection numbers from workplaces or at home".
nos.nl/artikel/235840… Image
Belgium has managed to step down from "1st in #COVID19 incidence of Europe" to place 21.
But no big ease in sight:
If you´re single, you will still only be allowed to have ONE #kuffelcontact💞at home!
You may invite a second person. But with distancing!
Q:"But, but, all our neighbours are allowed to have parties for Christmas!!!"😫

Belgium´s Health Minister answers...,

(it feels narrow-minded, fun-killing, simply annoying,
but you know:
he´s right.)
His answer in short: "Yep. Our neighbours aren´t wise"
😯
#Hildburghausen hits the panic-button.
From tomorrow on, everything is cancelled / banned:
Town council meetings
Political party essamblies
Religious assemblies
Markets and fairs

Rallies and funeral ceremonies need authorization

(masks are mandatory)
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/media/custom/2… Image
😳
Even the age groups
0 to 4 years
5 to 9 years
had a week-incidence around ~300 ?!

It´s obvious, why they closed schools and kindergartens, then.
(data of #Hildburghausen, ~1 week ago)
corona-data.eu/thueringen/lk-… Image
#Austria is about to provide rapid testing to their entire population.
#Vienna starts early:
from December 04 to 13,
they will have 3 large testing venues.
With 286 parallel test lines.

"That should be good for 14.000 rapid tests per hour."

Q: "Why does #Vienna's test campaign start earlier than the rest of #Austria?"

A: "We'd like to have everyone enjoying Christmas. Even, if they had a positive #COVID19 test, their (10 day) quarantine would be over by then".
coronavirus.wien.gv.at/site/faq-masse…
🙄
Three months with no #COVID19 case
in the entire country (#Vietnam)

1 man changed that.
After 2 negative tests, he "met with friends and family when he should have been self-isolating."

Test #3 was "positive".
200 contacts...
vietnamnews.vn/society/816469…
The quarantine break in #Vietnam has already lead to spreading #COVID19:
Case 1347 is an English teacher.
He already infected a student and his nephew.

Case count is now at 1351.
(For the entire country,
for the entire pandemic,
including imported cases!)
vietnamnews.vn/society/816699…
After several outbreaks/clusters, South Korea has a record number of people in quarantine.

Prime Minister: "the latest virus wave is difficult to control by government measures alone, as transmissions were reportedly occurring virtually in all places."
490,000 students +120.000 staff will take part in South Korea's College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) on Thursday.

Among them:
21 coronavirus patients and
144 people in quarantine.

Those who tested "positive" will take the exam in special hospitals.🎓
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Don't feel fit for your college entry exam?
Thinking about taking a sick leave instead?
😂
Forget it (in South Korea)!
❗
There are 172 dedicated hospital beds ready for #COVID19 exam student patients.

(Their future life depends on that one exam...)
Thinking about that guy,
calling Berlin's #COVID19 hotline to ask which places were the most risky ones for catching the virus.

Turned out he was a student, trying to get infected in order to be excused from exams.

From Berlin's Health Authority podcast:
gesundheitsamtneukoelln.podigee.io/1-typisch-neuk…
"Red Alert for the entire KPOP industry":
Members of 2 #KPOP bands have been found to be infected with #COVID19.

Many potential contacts are already being tested.
TV shows and concerts are cancelled across South Korea...
Following reactions of (presumably) young KPOP fans from around the world, there´s no way to say "young people don´t care about #COVID19".

Discussions evolve around asymptomatic spread,
and there´s a petition to stop all concerts to prevent further spread
www1.president.go.kr/petitions/5943…
#Aerosols,
now taken seriously:

"In indoor settings with poor / unknown ventilation,
better wear a mask when welcoming visitors.
REGARDLESS OF DISTANCING."

(new modification of #WHO guidance):
who.int/publications/i… Image
Maybe it´s a backlog and
#Hildburghausen didn´t really see 8 people die in 1 day😯

But out of a total 19 who died there in relation to #COVID19 during the entire pandemic, 18 seem to have died in the last ~30 days...
😳
(says their official daily report):
landkreis-hildburghausen.de/Aktuelles-Covi… ImageImage
In ~a month, #France has brought new #COVID19 infections down from
~50.000 a day to
~10.000 a day

Their goal is to reach 5.000 per day,
on December 15th.

(That would mean a crazy low 7 day incidence of ~50!)
It looks like they´re on their way to make it!
10 days ago, #Seoul had imposed social distancing measures (Level 2.5)

"If we enter into Level 3 of social distancing, all economic activities will effectively grind to a halt,"

"Level 3 is the last card we will use in a desperately dangerous situation"
It's not just #Seoul.
"Bigger wave of pandemic in progress"...
It's developping all over South Korea.

"the current level of measures is ineffective"
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
South Korea´s life deciding CSAT school exams fell in a "lucky" period of lower case numbers.
They would not have been possible with Level 3 restrictions.

They went like a smooth clockwork.
Even for those in #COVID19 hospital isolation wards...
Image
For the first time, #Seoul has decided to turn off night life after 9 p.m.

"We have tried hard to come up with measures that would allow the economy to rotate as much as possible.

But now, our priority is to protect the safety and lives of our citizens."
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Osaka (Japan) turns on the red warning lights.

"I would like to officially announce a state of emergency for medical facilities," #Osaka´s Governour told reporters.

(Hospital / ICU beds for #COVID19 patients are over 50% occupied.)
japantoday.com/category/natio… Image
In many of Germany´s cities, #COVID19 case numbers still won´t come down.
There seem to be no defined #Clusters.
The spread is very diffuse in the community.

One new measure is:
Nighttime curfews in high-incidence places.

#Mannheim will start tonight:
Tricky details in #Mannheim´s curfew ordonance:
~
Q: "Will shops have to close after 9 p.m.?"🥺

A: "No worries. They´re free to stay open if they wish. It´s just that no-one will be allowed to go out for shopping."😏
~
mannheim.de/de/information… Image
Some areas in Austria have started mass testing for #COVID19 (rapid antigen-tests).
For #Vorarlberg, the results are published in realtime:

Today, 52.342 tests have been performed
of which 191 turned out to be currently infectious.
(all asymptomatic!)
vorarlbergtestet.lwz-vorarlberg.at/grafana/d/uEEQ… Image
🕵️Europol Warning👮

They think

🔸counterfeit, fake vaccines
🔸illegally refilling of empty vials
🔸hijacking and theft of vaccine transports

may be upcoming topics, now.
europol.europa.eu/newsroom/news/… Image
#Hildburghausen´s results from voluntary mass tests for teachers and students are in.

Out of 2.418 (rapid antigen) tests
15 were found to be currently infectious.

Note: tests took place over 1 week after schools had closed (so infection sources unclear).
rundschau.info/interesse-an-c…
Me, to a french colleague:
"Hey, quite impressive that #France brought down their incidence from ~500 down to ~100 in about 4 weeks!"

He, enraged:
"Bah, what you see is only half the truth - it´s due to reduced testing as well"...

😳 oh.
meteo-covid.com/test-covid19-s… Image
What ever they did, in the #Netherlands...
it causes the #COVID19 case numbers to surge back up again.

😕And this comes at a very bad time, right now...
nos.nl/artikel/235938… Image
Today is #Pakjesavond in the #Netherlands.
Families gather and Sinterklaas manages to deposit some presents, without anyone noticing how.

He has little helpers that take people with them in their sack, when they didn´t behave well.
This year,
that might actually come true...
😳
What could be the reason for those re-surging numbers in the #Netherlands?

a.) that infamous #BlackFriday shopping chaos, one week ago
b.) the fact that since December 1st, #COVID19 tests are finally also accessible for contacts with no symptoms.
➡️📈
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Oh,
last minute present shopping?

#Amsterdam tried to keep shopping masses at bay with a one-way system, today.
After one hour they gave up:

"We´re FULL.
Give up your shopping plan,
or go somewhere else !
Come another day,
come alone"
Dutch Railways (NS) is quite charming today...
"If you think it´s too full, just get off our bus!"

Really? - the guidelines for NL public transport were never changed back to some sort of distancing again?
(since July 1st. NL daily incidence was 0.4, then...)
🤷@Sustainable2050 ImageImage
This kid is a huge #Hayabusa2 Asteroid Explorer fan.
She went to see the capsule separation sequence at a public viewing.

She made herself a costume.
With solar panels.
That serve as social distancing guards as well.

(I see a future Nobel prize awaardee)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
#Switzerland's ski ressorts are open again.

And it matches expectations.

The lift operator's comment:
"I can see nothing illegal here. The 1.5m distancing rule is not in force, yet..."
Image
Actually,
#Switzerland has decided rules for ski ressorts on December 4th.

But they will only come into force on December 9th.
Like: 1.5m distance &
"Closed cable car cabins may only be used to 2/3 capacity"
😕
Until then, it's up to people's common sense
bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/kr… Image
An alarm, that emerges all over #Japan, now:
medical personnel cannot cope anymore.

Osaka´s governour already asked other prefectures for help. They are stretched out, too.
So the military will try and see what they can do...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
#Japan´s military will now (finally) see what they can do in Asahikawa as well.

2 hospitals asked for urgent support 2 weeks ago.
The city´s mayor found it "too difficult to decide" back then...

Each hospital has ~200 infections now (including staff)
mainichi.jp/articles/20201…
A small island in #Japan´s north is experiencing a massive #COVID19 outbreak.
In a few days, 2% of their population (´only´ ~50 people) were found to be "positive".
They are transported to cities in Hokkaido, where they strain the regional health system...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Hokkaido can cope with the influx of infected islanders from Okushiri island, so far.

"but if additional local clusters would fill beds up..."
「パニックになる可能性は出てくる」
("...I think that could maybe cause panic" - he really said that)😳
www3.nhk.or.jp/sapporo-news/2… Image
The major city of Nagoya (West-Japan) has 297 #COVID19 beds.
But currently they can only operate 180 beds, due to shortage of medical personnel.

They already have 182 COVID-patients, so they started to transfer some to the smaller cities in the region.
😧
Yes, measures do have economic impact

"Unfortunately, the current #COVID19 situation in Europe makes it unlikely that we would be able to create the necessary conditions to ensure the health and safety of our staff, participants and the broader community"
todayonline.com/world/world-ec…
Of course,
you´ll have to read the whole text thoroughly.
But then you stumble upon

"With little evidence that schools contribute to higher rates of transmission"

🤔Wait...
that´s implying #schools suffer ´just the same transmission rate as anywhere´
no?
"Case numbers in the #Netherlands are rising again.
Soon hospital admissions will rise, too..."

~"we thought we´d be able to have less strict rules by Christmas - we may need to abandon that idea, now..."
nos.nl/artikel/235967… Image
So the surge in incidence numbers (23.3↗️41) in the #Netherlands is not just caused by recently testing asymptomatic contacts (since December 1st)?

Test positivity was 11.1%, last tuesday.

There´ll be a new positivity index today.
Let´s wait and see...
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Germany´s national science academy #Leopoldina argues for a full #Lockdown (4 weeks, slow start next week).

Besides many scientific arguments, this one´s striking:
"in the last 7 days, Germany has seen more #COVID19 deaths than traffic fatalities in 2019"
leopoldina.org/uploads/tx_leo… Image
That escalated quickly:
#Saxony is the first state of Germany to announce a full scale #Lockdown.
They won´t have a "slow starting phase". From monday on
-schools
-kindergartens
-non essential shops
are expected to be shut down until next year (January 10)
staatsregierung.sachsen.de/aus-dem-kabine… Image
More states of #Germany already signal readiness for #Lockdown.
But it seems they opt for the "slow start" after Christmas, especially to avoid "X-mas Panic Shopping"
(which would be far worse than #BlackFriday, I imagine...)
😱🕦🎁
By the way:
#Netherlands´ disease center #RIVM just stated, that the current surge in NL´s #COVID19 incidence could be linked to:

a.) the #BlackFriday shopping craze (nov 27th) AND
b.) the new regime of testing asymptomatic contacts (since Dec 1st)
nos.nl/artikel/235980…
Yes,
test positivity rate in the #Netherlands has indeed risen.
From 11.1 (last week) to 11.6% today.

That´s not much.
But definitely the wrong direction if you´d hoped to ease some COVID rules🙄
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
It had been discussed for a long time in #Germany´s state of Baden-Württemberg - and it´s still very controversial:

Those who notoriously escape from #quarantine may soon be commited to special (guarded) quarantine institutions.
(like in AUS, NZ, TW,...)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
You know,
Germany (so far): with a #Quarantine order you´re ought to stay in your home (in fact authorities are far too overwhelmed to control)

Taiwan: leave your quarantine room for 8 seconds and you´re screwed:
asiaone.com/asia/man-servi…
Appalling observation in #Switzerland:
-#COVID19 situation starts to deteriorate again
-case numbers start surging again
-intensive care is used to capacity
-medical personnel is exhausted

They held an extraordinary assembly, today...
"It's the first time, #Switzerland experiences a situation like this."
#COVID19 numbers are stagnating at high level. They are not decreasing, but are likely to go up again.

Swiss government is now proposing a (very mild) countrywide #Lockdown...
Switzerland's first steps:
-nearly everything will close daily, at 7 p.m.
-no public events

Sounds soft.
But: if numbers continue to rise next week (very likely), restaurants and shops might be closed entirely.
From tomorrow on, #Italy will apply new entry rules.
Transport carriers will be obligued to:

measure temperature of passengers
equip passengers with masks
verify COVID test certificates
operate at 50% capacity
refuse transport of non-compliant passengers
esteri.it/mae/resource/d… Image
While train operators from Austria and France comply with #Italy´s new entry rules, #Switzerland´s rail provider #SBB simply said:

No way.

Major european train lines will be cut at the border.
Train traffic to Italy is halted indefinitely.🤷
srf.ch/news/schweiz/s…
#Sweden's Stockholm Region just held a press conference.

It is said, the entire region's intensive care was nearly full.
"Today, there are 5 or 7 places left"...
#Sweden #COVID19
Stockholm Region:
"That´s basically all intensive care places we have..."

They have 89.
They were full. Image
Stockholm´s Health Director in a calm voice:
~"The health system still works because we do our outmost.

But this cannot go on.

This is enough now.
(Nu får det vara nog)

After work, coffee parties, crowds for Christmas shopping,...
That´s not worth it!"
arbetarskydd.se/arbetsmiljo/ha…
In fact,
#Stockholm region has ~160 ICU beds.
~89 were filled with #COVID19 patients.

There are no additional beds.
The "normal cases" ICUs are also full.
(with operations, postponed from the first waves, etc.)
svt.se/nyheter/lokalt…
💈A heads-up to my hairdresser's other clients:

I took my #Aranet4 CO2 monitor with me for a haircut.

Maestro was shocked to see his thought-out aeration plan failed.
We spent an hour experimenting with windows.

He's happy now.

(Your next visit might be chilly,
sorry.)
💨❄⛄ Image
I´m worried about this tiny spot on the map.
Somehow, the virus has managed to enter the city of #Suhl.

Their incidence was 29.9, two weeks ago.
Today it´s 318.

Suhl is the most overaged city in entire Germany.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
You know:
the average age of the population in the city of #Suhl is:
~50.3 years (!)

We´re afraid of any #COVID19 outbreaks, there.
tlug-jena.de/uw_raum/umwelt… Image
Most of #Suhl´s #COVID19 cases seem to be in a nursing home, so far.

But what´s most worrisome:
a week ago, the city stopped keeping track of the number of contacts...
(it´s just "over 300", since then)

suhltrifft.de/content/blogca… Image
There was the idea to wait with #Lockdown until everyone has organized all their "necessary" X-mas shopping (after Christmas).
But Baden-Württemberg comes with a surprise move of "thinking about" locking down after this weekend.

😱🎁Panic this Saturday🙄
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Surprise I:
Daytime movement restrictions will already be in force by TOMORROW.👍

Surprise II:
you can still practically do anything.
(including panic-shopping, if you´ve lost faith in announcements)🤪

(ONLY exception: "lingering around in the city")🤷
baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/all… Image
Surprise III:
Strict night curfew starts TONIGHT 24:00 (??)

"Hey folks,
I know, you just wanted to start your weekend.
But our hundreds of employees need to have their work-certificate/laissez-passer in hands TODAY!
Mind staying a few hours longer?

Stay strong💕
yours
KlimaZen" Image
No,
we still don´t have any official regulatory text.
No, we don´t even know, if we need to show a work-certificate
Yes,
we do have crazy work hours (including weekend & nighttime)
Yes,
we always try to do things right.

So,
@RegierungBW drives us crazy.

#Ausgangsbeschränkung
Yes, it´s obvious.
Baden-Württemberg needs to act immediately.

Out of 2.900 ICU places,
2.363 (81%) are occupied today.

Last week, case numbers were ~3.000 per day.
Now we have 4.000 a day (+33%)
In ~3 weeks, ICU will rise by 33%, too.
That´s 107%, then.
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/DE/Fachinf… Image
Oh,
'If you meet with 5 persons, you need to stay indoors, in a private room.

If you thought it would make more sense to meet outside in public (you know, #Aerosol stuff),
forget it.
That's prohibited.'

That's #Maultaschen logic...
😅
#Maultaschen:
traditional meal in Baden-Württemberg.
Minced meat, wrapped in pasta, so that it is hidden and you can pretend to eat vegetarian....
It has cultural heritage status.

Also depicts: "If you do stupid stuff, we don't care if we can't see it".
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maultasche
Another formerly leading country
losing against #COVID19.

South Korea´s new cases jumped to 950 today. A new all-time record.
The day before it was 689.
(that´s +38% in one day)

Disturbing to see, where they got infected...
Image
Much of South Korea was under "the second highest alert", but
"Despite the heightened social distancing, the volume of movement has not been reduced enough".

(Yesterday´s major clusters:
- restaurant
- church
- school
- office)

Yes, they are still open.
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
One example how South Korea lost it:

November 28th:
A restaurant in Seoul had a "performance" on stage.
Mask use was "insufficient". First case found.

14 days later,
that #Cluster has spread to
230 people. ImageImage
If a teenager tells you they can do things on their own,
without Interference from adults...
they're probably right so.

(Including their capability to spread the pandemic)
#Highschool #COVID19 #Cluster
Status report, from Baden-Württemberg (movement restrictions in force since this morning):
👍trams/ streetcars virtually empty
😣grannies and pops (unnecessarily) queuing for toiletpaper, as they believe all shops will close monday (wich had never been said, it´s what they think)
Frankfurt´s mayor just appologized:
"It wasn´t our intent to invite people to act recklessly"...

They promoted X-Mas shopping in the city´s centre by offering sponsored tram tickets today🚃🎫
"It was planned months ago. Now, I think it´s inappropriate"
🙄
The first night curfew approaches...
🕗😨 and time is flying!
Just over 2 hours left, until everyone in Baden-Württemberg needs to be at home!

Currently people start making emergency calls to police, to ask for advice😱📞...
🙄
1.5 hours left...🕗😰 #curfew

2 discounters,
just around the corner from each other.

(in case you´re in a hurry, that nifty feature of google maps would come in handy!)
google.com/maps/place/ALD… ImageImage
Silent night.
You can hear a falling leaf, when it hits the ground.
🍃
The nice side of curfew.😌
South Korea sees another record.
First time the country has more than 1.000 #COVID19 cases (1.030) in a day.

But they're still reluctant to switch to their highest alert (Level 3 should come into force if cases surge above 800)...
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
For now, South Korea's "3 week containment campaign"' is only about testing.
From monday they're rolling out free antigen-rapid tests, at 150 new test stations.

(they already calculate case numbers to virtually explode, due to increased testing)...
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Rumours are:
#Germany might start a 3.5 week containment campaign on Wednesday.

It might close shops down, except supermarkets.

(⚠Monday, Tuesday will be murderous. People will go crazy for X-mas presents.
My advice: 🔖design a nice voucher instead!)
businessinsider.de/politik/deutsc…
The Highschool #Cluster in South Korea isn´t spreding exclusively among the teenagers anymore.

Infections in the students´ families have been found, now.
facebook.com/covid19korea/p… ImageImage
The restaurant #Cluster in South Korea
(started 15 days ago with singing and "insufficient mask use")
has now reached into a care center...

Seems a singer-infected restaurant guest infected a family member, who works at the care center.
(275 cases now)
facebook.com/covid19korea/p… ImageImage
#Germany will have it´s #Lockdown.
Start: December 16
End: January 10 (as of now)

Schools, kindergartens will close
Mandatory rapid (antigen) tests for personnel in nursing homes
Yes, most shops will close. But many stay open: food, drinks, Xmas-trees,...
bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/… Image
Actually, the list of shops to stay open in #Germany´s #Lockdown is quite long.
But beware: it COULD be possible your supermarket will not be allowed to sell "non-food" items (like toys, etc.)!
🚧🎁🚧🥺
Just saying.
(this might lead to absurd scenes, like it did in France...) Image
During the hard #Lockdown phase in #France, supermarkets had to cordon off "non-alimentary" goods.

The reason wasn´t that those goods were ´dangerous´.
It was an thought of as an act of "fairness" to those toy/ book/ etc. shops who had to close entirely.
South #Germany´s city of #Tübingen has used regular antigen tests for nursing home personnel since ~September. (Will come nationwide, now)

They claim this has prevented infections of elderly (while neighboring towns saw deadly nursing home outbreaks).
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Tübingen is focused on the "elderly risk group".

This went as far as saying:
"~We want schools to stay open.
This means kids will inevitably get infected.
But as far as we know, they will cope with it"

(this philosophy shows in today´s case numbers🙄)
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/28… Image
Jeetje !😯

Daily #COVID19 case numbers are back to ~10.000, in the #Netherlands !

They had a daily incidence of 23.2 (Dec 1st).
It´s at 57, today (it doubled ~10 days!).

(ICU occupation doesn´t fall any more, but sees slight rise as well).
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
It seems the #Netherlands are deeply worried and contemplate stricter measures (especially closing shops).

That´s not so much because of the resurging NL case numbers.

The big worry is:
Germany´s #Lockdown might drive masses to NL for X-mas shopping...
gelderlander.nl/nijmegen/bruls…
Shopping areas in the #Netherlands have been crowded again, today.

So #Rotterdam applied several measures:
- one way pedestrian traffic
- temporarily no stepping off from trams in the city´s centre
AND:
A congestion-app for pedestrians !!!
app.spotrotterdam.nl Image
In Japan (the land of capsule hotels), an office space provider registred a surging demand for remote working places.

So they brought out capsule offices.

Featuring:
-recirculating aircons
-a communal space to have a drink with your colleagues

Aaargh!🙄
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
You know a crisis is bad,
when you don´t even receive bad numbers anymore...

(Medical staff in Hokkaido is too busy with treating patients to enter data,
even data-input reinforcement sent from other regions is put on other duties)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
😂😅😥😞
In less than 48 hours "non-essential" shops all over Germany will close for ~1 month #Lockdown.

Politicians now appeal to shop-owners to keep shops open around the clock "until the last minute",
so people can shop Xmas presents without chaos...
t-online.de/nachrichten/pa…
Due to surging numbers (and fear of massive influx of german shoppers) the #Netherlands will also close all "non-essential" shops.

Start: tonight (midnight)!

(That's turning tables - now dutch shoppers will (potentially) rush to german shops, tomorrow)
#Belgium´s leading virologist calls on shoppers from the Netherlands "don´t come to us!"

This belgian website enjoys adding some "tit for tat" - they didn´t forget how Belgians weren´t welcome in some dutch cities, when shops in Belgium had been closed...
7sur7.be/belgique/van-g…
😡
#Germany´s Ministry of Health:

~>
Hey, seniors - you thought there´d be no reason to join the shopping chaos before #Lockdown?

Think again!
We will start GIVING AWAY FREE FFP2 masks !!!!

Starting TOMORROW at your local pharmacy.
Come and join !
<~💢
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/service/gesetz… Image
Yes,
y´all need cheap clothes and cordless power drills...
🙄 Image
Santa Claus visited a nursing home in #Belgium.
He was a #Superspreader.

~60 elderly residents
~14 staff
have been found infected, so far.

He was wearing a mask.
But you know, he has a massive beard,
causing the mask to leak... (suspected outbreak cause)
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020…
Germany's "most important" hospital, Berlin's Charité,
is evaluating a larger transfer of non-COVID patients.
They would be transferred to other clinics, as far as 400 km away, to allow Charité to be dedicated to more #COVID19 patients.
#CloverleafProtocol
amp.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/uni-kli…
This looks drastic:
The extreme east areas of #Germany suffer #COVID19 incidences above ~600.

One district´s ICU capacity (combined of 6 hospitals) is 179 beds.
150 of them are occupied by COVID ICU-patients.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/3a1… Image
One of the points that are said to have caused the immediate #Lockdown of the #Netherlands:

The test results were worrying.

Positivity rate had risen within a week.
And asymptomatic contacts had ~the same positivity as those with symptoms !
rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/rap… Image
Another worrying fact, leading to NL #Lockdown:

People didn´t seem to care anymore.
The green line shows "shopping movements".
By the end of November this had surged to ~2 times the movements of March.
(To the very end you can see the #BlackFriday peak) Image
Looks confusing.
But follow the green line.

It shows ICU admissions would surge to higher levels than in the 2nd wave
within ~2 weeks, if nothing would change.

Thus: immediate #Lockdown in the #Netherlands was decided. Image
#Switzerland's advisory #COVID19 Science Task Force calls for
comprehensive
nationwide
swift measures

"There's no time to try out measures of unknown efficacy"

They're calling for a national
#Lockdown. Now.
New #COVID19 cases climb to record high in South Korea.
Fatalities follow suit...

(test positivity rate is at 2.27%, but rising)
Image
South Korea's number of serious/critically ill #COVID19 cases jumped up ~10% (to 226) in a day...
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
South Korea's still tries to focus on:
✔securing more hospital beds
✔finding asymptomatic "hidden spreaders,"
❌instead of adopting Level 3 restrictions,
since tougher restrictions would cause economic damage.

(there's no X-mas/new year break, there!)
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Remember "Dry Ice" is frozen CO2🤔
Those transport boxes are not gastight (for a reason).

You may want to have a CO2-meter at hand and proper ventilation (as you all do anyway✅)

And maybe not transport/store them in the back of your car... 🙄🌬️☠️
You know,
that "death by Dry Ice, transported in your car" story ain´t kidding.

It happened 7 years ago, to a well known cook in Germany...
(Yes, those containers were even less sealed.
So his ride ended after only 200 m...)
#COVID19 #Vaccine
faz.net/aktuell/rhein-…
#Japan had proclaimed a
"3 week battle to lower #COVID19 numbers".

This "battle" period has ended today.

The summary:
"It didn´t get much worse, so it must have helped..."
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
In fact, #Japan has finished its "3 week battle against #COVID19 numbers" with new record numbers.

Not only in #Tokyo, but also in Kanagawa, Aichi, Kyoto...
"the spread of infections continues to be unstoppable"
😟
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
Worrying rumours from one hospital in #Germany´s extreme eastern district of Görlitz (Saxony)

It´s not sure what´s going on.
Are they "performing triage" on patients?
are they just "calling for help"?
are they just "overworked"?
are they "fearmongering"?
mdr.de/sachsen/bautze…
We don´t really know, what´s going on in #Germany´s Görlitz district (Saxony).
We don´t even really know what´s going on in the entire state of #Saxony.

They couldn´t manage to send updates to the national #COVID19 database...
(2 days ago - still influencing statistics, today) Image
Still, data crowdsourced by @risklayer (directly from local authorities) shows the situation in Saxony.

"Black" indicates a local 7-day incidence above 500 (up to ~680, right now).
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
Not a rumour. It´s an official note.
(Mayor of Zittau, Görlitz district):

"We need urgent support to evacuate patients to other places.
Regional capacities are exhausted."

Incidence: just above 700, this noon.
Testing capacity overrun.
Surmortality: 25%
zittau.de/de/node/288959 Image
What Zittau´s mayor calls for is
activation of "Operation #Cloverleaf".

Germany´s central ICU coordinator #DIVI just confirmed:
Other regions can provide free beds
Interregional transfers of patients would be coordinated

"No need for triage right now."
divi.de/presse/pressem… Image
The #COVID19 situation in South Korea is
"prompting health authorities to seriously consider adopting the toughest virus curbs."
Just like it did yesterday.
(the current level of measures had been issued 9 days ago.
Maybe they hope effect will set in soon)
m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
22 #COVID19 Fatalities in South Korea, today.

13 yesterday (was a record).

8 was the average of last two weeks.
Image
Oh, sh*t !

SARS-CoV-2 traces in a city's wastewater are used as an early warning system for upcoming waves of #COVID19 infections.

In Gothenburg (#Sweden's 2nd largest city), those markers "exploded".
They have increased 100-fold in one week!

omni.se/explosionsarta…
A week ago, Sahlgrenska hospital in #Gothenburg already asked everyone to avoid injuring themselves.

They suggested:
"-don't use your car
--don't go hiking in the mountains"

(They already experienced an increase in patients and more staff getting sick.)

omni.se/svart-lage-pa-…
The city of Hanau (#Germany) had installed a temporary freezer in their cemetery, back in April (during 1st #COVID19 wave).

2 days ago, all morgues in the city were at capacity limit.
The freezer is now used for the first time
(housing 2,
23 places left)
Still high case numbers, but
still no tougher measures in South Korea.

"We need to gather sufficient public consensus, as #Level3 (limiting assemblies to 10, closing schools & shops) would be meaningless without the public's participation"

m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Another state of #Germany has requested activation of "Operation #Cloverleaf".
Today, 51 patients from Brandenburg (mild #COVID19 cases) will be transferred to Berlin.

Brandenburg urgently needs space for more patients.
rbb24.de/politik/thema/…
In Berlin, directorate of Charité clinic has communicated their sorrow the "#Cloverleaf" concept might soon stop working, as hospitals all over Germany will start to fill up.

They prepare to release as many patients as possible right now, to make room...
rbb24.de/politik/thema/… Image
In the wake of surging patient numbers, Baden-Württemberg in southwest #Germany has started to distribute #COVID19 ICU patients evenly across the state.

Today, 4 ICU patients from Heidelberg were transferred to Stuttgart and Ulm,
by Intensive-Care-Bus🚍
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Due to foggy conditions, ICU transfers could not be done by helicopter.
So Red Cross Ulm dispatched their new Intensive-Care-Bus (said to be "world´s largest ICU on wheels").

Capacity: 4 fully supplied IC patients on ventilators + medical personnel.
Strong words for new measures in #Sweden:
"If shopping centres, stores and fitness gyms ignored the (new) maximum limit on people allowed in, then they would be closed down."

And, for the first time, facemasks are recommended(!) in public transport.
ft.com/content/71d67d…
While #Sweden´s government announced new harsh measures to try and get #COVID19 numbers under control,
FHM (Sweden´s Health Authority) announced something else:

"Due to the holidays, we will only report numbers on 7 days in the coming 3 weeks. And they won´t make much sense"🙄😡 Image
So after 3 weeks opening up again, #Austria will go back into #Lockdown for 3 weeks...

This will start on Dec 24 (but only after re-opening ski resorts and enjoying Xmas parties with relieved restrictions...🤷)

A lot of confusing stuff, for now...🤔
orf.at/stories/319425…
"Six patients have died of #COVID19 while waiting for a place at a hospital"

vs. ongoing business as usual:

"Near 5-fold increase of infections at religious facilities"
"Ski resort caused chain infection"
"Offices hit particularly hard"
🤷 (South Korea)
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
Sweden´s leading epidemiologist argues:

"There´s still no scientific proof that masks would help - but with the current high spread of infections and heavy burden on healthcare,
we have to try everything we can"

😷✅
#UK:
"New variant 'really worrying'🤔
Government advisers "consider the new strain can spread more quickly".

A (new) fourth tier of coronavirus restrictions is expected to be introduced in London and south-east England...
bbc.com/news/uk-553767…
"Up to 70% more transmissible..."
(raw results on the new virus variant in South/East England)
Image
As the new variant still seems to be regionally confined (to London & south-east England), the aim is to keep it there as long as possible...

Essentially, that means: if you´re there, you´re expected to stay there:
The announcement of harsh measures to confine the outbreak of a new #COVID19 strain to south-east #England might also cause a reaction from #France.

The Eurotunnel is linking England´s outbreak area directly to Calais (and the rest of Europe)...
Problems at Eurotunnel were already huge, these days
(Not because of #COVID19, yet...)
Another convenient way to travel from #London to
Paris
Brussels
Amsterdam

🚄The EuroStar highspeed train.
It will keep operating, as they say,
even with London being "Tier4", due to find of the new variant strain of #COVID19.
As the #EuroStar website says:
France &
Belgium do not require passengers from the UK to quarantine
(for now.
Belgium was planning to change that anyway, soon...)
eurostar.com/uk-en/travel-i…
As for the Netherlands' quarantine:
they have a vast list of exemptions from quarantine.

(and: everyone in quarantine may "briefly go shopping")...
😕
government.nl/topics/coronav…
Ooops...

The #Netherlands just announced that they already had found one case with the new strain of #COVID19 (in early December).

And: from 06 a.m. this (sunday) morning, all passenger-flights from #UK will be refused.
nos.nl/artikel/236134…
Uk->NL:
Only flights are halted, so far.
NL government is ..."considering additional measures regarding other modes of transport.
Over the next few days, with other EU states, NL will explore the scope for further limiting the risk of the new strain of the virus being brought over from the UK."
government.nl/latest/news/20…
Yes,
the government of the #Netherlands states that the new strain of #COVID19

"is also harder to detect"

both, in dutch and english announcements.

(*IF* that would mean, tests couldn´t show it, that would be worrisome - but maybe it´s something else.)
government.nl/latest/news/20… Image
The House of Representatives in the #Netherlands was just informed by the Ministry of Health.

Looks like it is complicated to say *which strain* SARS-CoV-2 would be in a sample.
(But that doesn´t mean it´s difficult to detect that some strain is there)
rijksoverheid.nl/documenten/kam… Image
🤔
🙄
😄
😂
🤣"Of course. It’s the police’s responsibility..."
🥴
"New virus strain already in every part of Wales"

makes the idea of using police to stop individuals from packing their car and leaving London sound somewhat ´disproportionate´...
bbc.com/news/uk-wales-…
The flight bans look like a swift solution...
(but remember: NL has already confirmed they had one case of the new #COVID19 strain in their country ~2-3 weeks ago).
And there´s also ferries, the Eurotunnel,...

(Might be we´re too late, again).
Passenger traffic (flights, Eurostar trains) from UK will be banned to enter #Belgium from tonight (midnight).
Quarantine for those who arrive today.

The ban is only for 24 hours, so far.
(Also: talks with France to control roads from Calais to Belgium)
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020… Image
The article from Belgium also states, the new SARS-CoV-2 strain had also been discovered ealier:

in Belgium
in Denmark
in Australia
(only a few cases,
not that massive spread as it is found in England, right now)
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020… Image
#Italy now:
"As a government we have the duty to protect Italians. For this reason, after having notified the English government, we are about to sign the order to suspend flights with Great Britain."
#ECDC has just published a first Threat Assessment of the new #SARSCoV2 strain.

🔎"Ongoing circulation of this variant outside of the UK cannot be excluded"

(because other countries don´t do genetic analyzing as much as UK, we might just not know it...)
ecdc.europa.eu/en/publication…
UK´s raw version of the new #SARSCoV2 strain´s Threat Assessment:

"R increased between 0.39 and 0.93"😧
(so ~0.4 was *optimistic*)

"can be challenging to sequence" (aha!), so spread may be underestimated.

"Antigenic escape"...
oh.🙄
"Antigenic escape"
So that´s why ECDC has this chapter in their Threat Assessment.

They want to keep an eye on
-reinfections
-treatment failures with antibodies
-vaccine failure

which would indicate that old strain immunity doesn´t help against the new!
ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/… Image
They´re not going on holidays.
Look at the amount of luggage.
It is an exodus.
#Germany´s ban on flights from #UK
comes into force tonight (midnight).
🛬🛑
Soon, there will be restrictions to ALL forms of travel from UK (and South Africa).

(maybe tests and quarantine? Not sure yet.
It will be decided tomorrow...)
Image
Link to Germany´s UK flight ban (full document, in german)
on this site:
bmvi.de/SharedDocs/DE/…
#France announces a TOTAL travel ban for passengers coming from the #UK.
Starting tonight at midnight.
🛑🛬🚄🚙🛳️🛑
They emphasize that this is a TEMPORARY measure.
(for 48h, so far)
NOTE: All the other travel bans UK->EU are temporary, too.
That 48 hours of total travel ban will be used to elaborate a coordinated response of all EU members.

(Travel UK->EU might be possible again,
conditions apply...)
Yes,
looks like a negative PCR test might be necessary to enter #France from the #UK.

(NOTE: there´s some hint that this might only apply to french nationals.🤔
Sounds weird, but they suggested this earlier for french ski-tourists, returning from CH, too)
IPCR: "integrated political crisis response"
All affected EU member states, relevant institutions will start their meeting on the "New Virus Strain in the UK & travel (and Brexit?)" tomorrow, 11 a.m.
#Italy has detected its first carrier of the new virus strain.
A passenger who arrived from the #UK, a few days ago.
He came by plane, landed in Rome´s Fiumicino airport.

He´s in quarantine at the moment.
Italy is now rolling out mandatory tests for everyone who has been to UK in the last 14 days...
Tonight, #France has published a clarifying announcement:

▫️Travel from #UK is expected to resume December 22.

▫️Then, a negative PCR test will have to be provided upon DEPARTURE

There´s some "privilege" for french nationals
(what ever that means...)
uk.ambafrance.org/All-travel-fro… Image
"Privilege" in #Germany, Berlin-style
(when the last flights from UK arrived, the passengers were ´triaged´...
Some were ´qualified´ to leave without a test, go home by train and have their test arranged later...🙄)
#Germany, again: No privilege at Hannover airport

All passengers of #UK flight isolated in terminal building.
Emergency services hastily prepared a mass PCR testing station.
Everyone needs to stay, until test results are in (that´ll take hours)...
The Netherlands with strictly no privilege

ALL passenger transport from UK is banned until January 1st.
Stranded dutch nationals are advised to look for accomodation in UK - there will be no way home.
(Except for lorry drivers. Goods traffic not affected)
rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws… Image
British Transport Minister´s warning tonight:
Do not travel to Kent in hope to get to France...
"Operation Stack":
All lorries are ordered to park on the motorway.
The cargo traffic on the UK side is piled up to a length of 25 miles, at the moment.
(that´s ~40 km of trucks)
The new strain of #SARSCoV2 has made its way from #UK to #Australia, now.
Authorities stress out, that the current outbreak in Sydney is NOT related to this new strain.
abc.net.au/news/2020-12-2…
Everyone in #NSW is now being asked to wear a mask.
And get tested & isolate, if even the slightest symptoms of possible #COVID19 occur...
#Germany´s state of North Rhine-Westphalia (#NRW) issued a ´Test & Quarantine´ ordonance for travellers from UK and South Africa, tonight.

It applies to those who arrived in the past 10 days.
(AND: it can be seen as a draft of HOW TRAVEL CAN RESUME SOON).
land.nrw/de/pressemitte… Image
The new #UK / #ZA travel ordonance in Germany´s #NRW sounds practical:
1.) PCR Test presented or done at arrival
2.) quarantine at home (10 days)
3.) a 2nd PCR test after 5 days (if it says "negative", you´re cleared and free)

😏there´s a story to that...
mags.nrw/sites/default/… Image
Those "new" ´Test & Quarantine´ rules in #NRW had been in force before,
until - exactly 1 month ago - one eager traveller complained and caused courts to dump the whole system.😡

Since then, the paperwork still existed, but enforcement was suspended.

(Screenshot of 2020-11-20:) Image
Remember those #UK - #Germany flight passengers who were held isolated in the terminal building at Hannover airport until their test results came in?

Test results are here:
One is #COVID19 "positive"...
🙄
hannover.de/Leben-in-der-R… Image
#Switzerland has a very simple "test"
for travellers from UK and South Africa:
A look at your passport!🛂

Swiss passport: you´re welcome to quarantine at home🇨🇭

Foreign passport: entry denied.🤷

(🤔no fancy PCR testing or such stuff...)
The #Netherlands decided to resume helicopter transfers of some #COVID19 patients to #Germany.

It´s been ~2 months, since the last such transfer.

Now, intensive care occupancy is slowly running high in NL. Staff is getting more and more exhausted...
Updated numbers of infected passengers:

Of those on last flights #UK-#Germany,
this night
at least 12 were now found #COVID19 "positive"

Hamburg: 7 passengers
Frankfurt: 4
Hannover 1
(so far...
Unclear if any are infected with the new variant of Virus)
n-tv.de/panorama/Mehre…
It took a while, but now #Sweden also bans entry from the #UK.
And while they´re at it, they also ban entry from #Denmark, for a month.

Reason: malls in Denmark are closed and shoppers would flock to Sweden instead (and bring the new virus variant, maybe)
dr.dk/nyheder/udland…
Now
other regions of #UK start quarantining guests/travellers who managed to get out of #Tier4 areas/Wales (where the new Virus strain is believed to spread heavily)...
Director of Public Health:
“The new strain of Covid, which is increasingly rapidly in Tier 4 areas, is extremely worrying.
It is incredibly infectious and if you come in to contact with someone with this strain you are far more likely to catch it than the original strain."
🙄 Image
Herefordshire is one of a few regions in #UK with quite low #COVID19 rates.
That means: pubs are open.

Police had to turn away hundreds of non-local visitors (from up to 200 miles away), this weekend
westmercia.police.uk/news/west-merc…
Update on the spread of the new #SARSCoV2 variant:

Besides UK, infections have been found in:
Australia,
Iceland,
Italy,
Netherlands,
Denmark

(according to a #WHO announcement this afternoon)
The new #SARSCoV2 variant was found in
"Single cases in Australia, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands

whereas
Denmark had found ~10 cases"
Image
No progress in resuming travel & transport through the Eurotunnel.

#France insists on test for every truck driver.

#UK says tests would be impossible and unnecessary,
as lorry drivers would practically be isolated in their cabins, with low infection risk
Truck driver's reality, travelling through Eurotunnel:

All drivers must leave the trucks and take seat in a "club car" (fire safety reasons)
Drivers are transported by bus from/to their trucks

That lasts ~2 hours

Testing might be a good idea, I suppose.
That was the first time, mass tests on asymptomatic public were performed in UK.
They used rapid (antigen) tests, roughly meaning only those who were currently able to infect others had a "positive" result.

They found this would apply to ~2% of the tested
IF investigations would show the new variant is more adapted to children, this
▫️"could alter the role children, and schools, play in spreading the virus."
▫️"might explain a significant proportion... of the transmission increase seen"
bbc.com/news/uk-554069…
Still no move.
France still insists, all truck drivers must have a #COVD19 test.

Some movement:
the trucks are now being moved from the motorway to a dedicated parking lot.

In fact it´s Manston Airport.
The tarmac is used for parking up to 4.000 trucks.
kentlive.news/news/kent-news…
The reqeuest for #COVID19 tests is not only for truck drivers.
Even french nationals who wish to return to #France from #UK would need to present a negative PCR test.
(French Minister for EU affairs made that clear, yesterday):
Fun fact:
▶️there is already a drive-through #COVID19 PCR testing site at Manston Airport (stacking site for all the stranded trucks)...

It was installed in July and has been in daily operation, since then.
(Obviously it´s meant for cars, not trucks...)
theisleofthanetnews.com/2020/07/06/cov…
It seems some progress is being made...
"Lateral flow tests" being rapid (antigen) tests.

Not perfect,
and still nothing but rumours.
#UK #France #COVID19
So here´s the EU move:
(Rapid antigen) tests for truck drivers are okay, as long as that doesn´t lead to disruptions of transport.

🤔With some effort, this should be doable...
(Tests while waiting for onboarding, etc)
#EU #UK #COVID19
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… Image
Switzerland,
polite😇
and bold😠 Image
Well,
so Germany´s state of #Saxony is regarded as a high-risk area.
Even by #Switzerland´s standards!
😣
bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/kr… Image
Meanwhile at #UK Manston Airport,
the huge parking lot where thousands of trucks wait for #EU borders to reopen.

(If you think it´s a quiet evening there, you forgot to
TURN ON YOUR SPEAKERS🔊
#COVID19
Now, the #UK Road Haulage Association shows they care:

They don´t like #COVID19 tests for several reasons.

One being:
"😢A driver with a positive test, where will he go?
He will be unable to quarantine with his family in #Europe..."

🙄Lovely thought
rha.uk.net/news/press-rel… Image
On the other hand...

an update from Dortmund, #Germany.

´Test results for passengers of last flights from #London to Dortmund are in.
6 of them were #COVID19 "positive".´

Oh, yes - they will be allowed to quarantine with / infect their families...😩
I can totally imagine,
telling one of these truck drivers
"Er, sorry chap - your #COVID19 test is positive... you need to stay 10 days in your cabin"
is not deemed a smart thing by most of them.
#UK #EU
News from France:

"Travel #UK - #France will resume tomorrow.
A #COVID19 test (PCR or rapid test) will be required."

Applicable to:
▫️French and European nationals
▫️British and third-country nationals who are permanent residents
(no details, yet)
French Transport Minister:
planes, ships and Eurostar train are going back into service #UK - #France tomorrow morning.
Those with "legitimate reasons" will be allowed to travel, too.
(Of course: with a negative #COVID19 test.)
The #UK NHS #COVID19 testing team has arrived in Dover.
They will need some healthy sleep.
There´s a lot to do, tomorrow...
🧑‍⚕️🛻🚚🚛🚚🚛🛻🚛🚚🚛🛻🚛🚛
Special mention:
The Sikhs in Kent have been up to help since this morning!
Preparing and providing ~800 hot meals. Choice of pasta or curry/rice.😋
As well as other volunteers, salvation army, fire service did their best...
Today, 2 cases of infection with the new #SARSCoV2 strain have been reported from the #Netherlands.

They are both in Amsterdam region, but don´t seem to be connected.
One has been to #UK.
The other wasn´t .
nos.nl/artikel/236165…
In the late evening,
rules for resumption of passenger traffic #UK - #France were published.

Not everyone is allowed to travel,
but everyone who is allowed, must present a negative #COVID19 test.

uk.ambafrance.org/France-to-admi…
#France will accept some rapid (antigen) tests / (Lateral Flow Tests).

"In the absence of PCR tests, antigen tests sensitive to the VUI-2020-12-01 test will be authorized; see the list of these below."
uk.ambafrance.org/Antigen-tests-…
While passengers would need to provide their own negative #COVID19 test results (therefore could start earlier),
The tests for the stuck lorry drivers will be provided by authorities (therefore travel resumed at 7 a.m.)
#UK Port of Dover says to have restarted operations for both, passengers & freight shortly before midnight.

(provided anyone could present a negative #COVID19 test)...

doverport.co.uk/about/news/por… Image
Provided, you have a test result ...
Not much is moving, though...
On the move, though:
the new #SARSCoV2 variant is said to have been detected in further #UK regions...
Yesterday, #Belgium announced that ~3 weeks ago, they had found four #COVID19 cases, infected with the new "UK" variant.

It´s a family of 4.
They didn´t get infected via UK,
but one family member had been to Zeeland (#Netherlands), where he was infected".
hln.be/binnenland/van…
Interestingly, #Belgium´s test positivity rate keeps declining.
Even after the first cases of new "UK" #SARSCoV2 variant had been detected (early december).

Seems, just the presence of this new strain doesn´t say much...
hln.be/binnenland/ove… Image
The latest guess is ~10.000 trucks (drivers) need to be tested.
(~2% would be #COVID19 "positive", if we´d take latest mass testing of population in #Kent as a guideline).

Not to mention those in the minivans, discovering a co-passenger was "positive"...
Dover ferry service DFDS confirmed it had the capacity to carry 4,000 freight vehicles by Christmas Day...
(there are ~10.000 waiting right now)
The military will help with the tests...
The military is said to go and test the drivers stuck on the motorway M20.
For those at Manston airport, tests are said to finally begin... soon.
That´s chaotic (I)
Port of Dover is sending everyone to Manston Airport (which is ful), to get tested there.
This has provoked a bit of disconcent among drivers already waiting at the Port of Dover...
That´s chaotic (II)
So if some drivers had followed the appeal to leave their spot at Port of Dover to head for Manston Airport and queue up for a test...

that discontent might have grown, now.
The test centre at Port of Dover is not there, yet.
It´s a plan.

If it is installed ...
"it will be many hours, into days, just to get rid of what we see just around the Dover area".
Every mooring at the Port of Dover has a ferry waiting to bring cargo & passengers to France.
They have been waiting since this morning.

No truck (driver) with a #COVID19 test has made it here...
skylinewebcams.com/de/webcam/unit… Image
Yes, we know.
the new "UK" #SARSCoV2 variant,...
Oh.
ANOTHER new (South Africa) variant has reached UK.
"This virus is yet more transmissible and appears to have mutated further than the new virus.

Anyone who has been in South Africa in the past fortnight and close contacts must quarantine immediately!"
bbc.com/news/live/worl… Image
The South Africa variant has (so far) only been found in 2 cases in the UK.
That´s not the one causing the surge, for the moment.
Nice move!
Some bits of official information on #COVID19 testing for border crossings #UK to #France are now available in foreign languages!
(They don´t have all the information like where you can get the test,
but it´s a start...)
I think it´s getting really screwed up now...

(Ferries from #France cannot unload at #Dover,
as the entire port, city, region is blocked.

So they have to wait at sea or return to France, with passengers and cargo)
🛳️🔄 Image
🚛20
🚐50
So far.
In a day.
(Eurotunnel
#UK->#France)

Strong commitment, detailed facts research, a bit of authentic compassion...
telling the story, not boosting a headline.
I´d say they have a very good journalist, there.
There are now 3 ferries at once heading out from Calais to Dover...

Thinking about how there were convoys of ships crossing the Channel 80 years ago, 76 years ago...
it comes to my mind how blessed we still are.
(via vesselfinder.com) Image
That´s a ~20km long stretch of motorway, used as additional parking lot.
Actually, it´s that roadside that was left open, while trucks were stacked on the "coast bound" lanes.

It´s completely blocked, now.
This isn´t "Operation Stack/Brock" anymore.
"The ´UK´ #SARSCoV2 variant appears to be unstoppable" in the #Netherlands.

So far, it was only found in 2 cases. Both had no contact with each other, and had not been to UK.
The infections came up 10 days apart, suggesting there might be other carriers.
nos.nl/artikel/236181…
Dover #COVID19 testing
reinforcement/renforcement
arrived from France...
🚒
If ferries sail tomorrow, it will be because of crews and port staff who volunteer to do so.
Normally, ports would be closed for Christmas.

(see planned timetable below,
it´s outdated, for sure)
Image
Thanks to all those,
who make it possible...
@AmbColonna @Arnaudleviking
A polish truck driver passing the test zone in the Port of Dover.

(Don´t get the ironical sign wrong - they are all really p***ed.
"This #COVID19 thing is not a big deal. All this is just about politics" is heard in interviews. And they all blame France.)
Yes, there was a study (pre-) published yesterday.
But
"Schools may need to close to control new #SARSCoV2 variant"
is not what it actually concludes...
bbc.com/news/health-55…
The study on measures against the new ´UK´ #SARSCoV2 strain suggests it would need:
🔹#Tier4 rules England-wide
🔹Schools closed until February
and 🔹*2 million persons vaccinated per week*⚠️

to keep numbers below peak scenarios of earlier waves.
cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19… Image
#Poland´s tweet suggests they will send Polish medical personnel to #UK, to provide #COVID19 tests exclusively for Polish truck drivers.

Let´s see how this will work out... Image
First "official" results of one day #COVID19 testing for truck drivers are in.

(Together with commentary from #UK´s Secretary of Transport, that ~it all would not be worth the hassle~.)

3 / 2367 tested "positive"...
So, what´s the use of rapid tests?

A first case of infection with "#UK´s" #SARSCoV2 variant was found in #Germany, today.
A passenger, who came on one of the last flights from London (sunday, Dec 20).
She recieved a rapid test at the airport: positive...
Due to the "positive" rapid test result, that UK-flight passenger was sent to quarantine,
*picked up by relatives, then a ~2 hour ride to the relatives´ home, where she isolated herself*

Not much more interaction, so "only" 3 contacts, now.
#B117 #Germany
…zialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/pre…
In Poland, a Christmas dinner table will always have an extra plate.🎄🍽️
It is a symbol of hope.
In the darkest times of Poland, families prepared this extra plate in case a member of the family came back from captivity…
🚛
More military from the UK,
to test the truck drivers...
This evening, several planes stated from #Poland.
They will land at London Gatwick, #UK.

One plane carries 16 #COVID19 test teams.
Their mission: testing Polish truck drivers (and those of other ´Visegrad´-countries).
"Capacity: 5.000 tests per day"
Another plane from #Poland brings (even more) rapid antigen tests to #UK,
to be used for testing Polish (and V4) truck drivers.
And Polish military is also preparing to be deployed at testing sites in #UK, as well as catering for Polish truck drivers stuck at the border in Kent.
#Japan´s #COVID19 numbers are still rising.
Today, Tokyo saw a new record of 888 new cases.

One of them is a returnee from #UK...

And one transmission happened, while 2 men sat in a car, just for one lunchbreak....
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
2 UK residents who were tested #COVID19 "positive" in #Switzerland, have now been found to carry the #B117 variant strain.

One is in isolation.
The other one... well, local authorities are "trying to contact them".

🇨🇭🏂
Image
Medical Teams from #Poland have already started testing stranded truck drivers in #Dover.
It is expected that Polish military forces will arrive this morning for additional support.

Polish Consulate clarified they will test drivers of all nationalities.
ALL international travellers to the #Netherlands will need to provide a negative #COVID19 test result.

-rapid tests not accepted!
-a 10 day quarantine is also mandated

-does not apply to local cross-border travel
-and not for freight transport personnel
government.nl/latest/news/20… Image
Changing of the guards...

A new crew of firefighters from #France is now on their way to #Dover to take over #COVID19 testing from their colleagues who went there yesterday.
Apparently, there´s one major difference between french tests and UK-style testing.

Firefighters from #France strictly follow the manufacturer´s guideline.
They take swab samples from the "posterior nasopharynx".
That´s halfway through one´s head...🗣️🔚📏
Rapid tests from #UK crews will strictly be "self administered" (done by the testees themselves, under supervision).
They will not insert the swab deeply (might be risky with layman´s hands😤), but brush the cheeks and the nostrils in front of the nose...
The #UK way of applying rapid (antigen) tests is therefore deviating from manufacturers´ instructions.

"They do not need to be followed",

says a Standard Operation Procedure of UK´s NHS.
england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/wp… Image
#UK´s medical product authority had issued an
"authorisation for exceptional use"
of these rapid (antigen) / #LFT kits as a
"Self-Test device, to be used by members of the public"
on December 23.
gov.uk/government/new… Image
The medical crews from #Poland also seem to follow the manufacturers´ instructions for rapid (antigen) test kits.

Would be interesting to see if there will be any differences in UK vs. PL/F test result-quota🤔
Japan confirmed, 5 flight passengers who arrived last weekend and tested "positive" do carry infections with the new "UK" variant #B117

They came from UK and had landed in Osaka and Tokyo.
Since their positive test upon arrival, they´d been in quarantine.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
4 other cases in Japan, more worrying:
3 flight passengers from UK. They all tested "negative" upon arrival and went home.
As they later developped symptoms, it was discovered the infection had already spread to a family member.
Not yet clear if it´s #B117
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
New ´official´ numbers from the truck drivers´ tests in UK.
(positivity rate "just" doubled in a day. it was ~0,12%, yesterday)...🤔

(Couldn´t they also be given another self-test kit,
to let them check again, when they arrive at home?
It´s ~5€ !)
The "UK" variant #B117 has now been detected in #Ireland.
"Further testing in the coming days and weeks will establish the extent to which it is present here."

Ireland currently has the fastest growing incidence rate in the EU.
rte.ie/news/coronavir…
Authorities in the #Netherlands already suspected there´d be more than just the 2 cases of the "UK" variant #B117 they had found around Amsterdam.

They were right.
Another case was just found in Rotterdam region...
nos.nl/artikel/236204…
#Belgium #Santa #COVID19 #NursingHome
18 of the seniors have died.

hln.be/mol/al-18-bewo…
A Frenchman, residing in #London
arrived in #France Dec19
went to hospital in Tours Dec21 and got tested (unclear reasons). Result "positive".
Sequencing now showed: #B117

He´s isolated (at home)

Several more suspect cases are currently being sequenced
france24.news/en/2020/12/the… Image
South Korea,
still a typical #COVID19 transmission chain, these days:

Automobile factory employees
⬇️
families
⬇️
restaurant employees
⬇️
restaurant clients

26 cases confirmed, so far.
South Korea sees record #COVID19 case numbers around 1.000 since 2 weeks.

They are still hesitating to implement tougher measures, as they would have economic consequences.

(meanwhile: massive clusters in nursing homes, hospitals, detention center,...)
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
An airline pilot in #Japan has just been confirmed to carry the "UK" virus variant #B117.
He had been to #UK.

At home in Japan, his wife has also been found #COVID19 "positive".
Sequencing is done to see if she is also infected with the new variant.
It looks as if the #B117 infected pilot in Tokyo is one of the cases who were asymptomatic (and thus untested) upon arrival in Japan.
He arrived on Dec16, went home.
Tested positive Dec22,
Another family member (not been to UK) was found positive on Dec24
news.line.me/articles/oa-rp…
a little Update:
"UK" variant in JP
It has been confirmed that the #B117 infection of an airline pilot had been transmitted to one of his family members, back home in #Japan.

(after his return from UK, his infection went unnoticed for ~6 days, Dec16 - 22)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020…
The case history
(Ministry of Health, #Japan):

Pilot returned home to Tokyo from #UK, December16🟢
Felt mild symptoms Dec21🔵

Family member felt symptoms Dec23🟡

Both in hospital (for managed isolation) since Dec24
Confirmation: both carry #B117, Dec26
mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_15… Image
UK: #Manston airport truck holding area now cleared. Quite some trucks still stacked on the motorway #M20, waiting to cross the border to France with a #COVID19 rapid test...
#M20
Done.
(although there are still red markers on the map, indicating there´d be heavy traffic. Everyone´s gone).
trafficcameras.uk/map/ Image
#UK #France #Border #Truckdrivers
And the "officially commented by traffic secretary" test results are in:
15.526 tests
36 positive
(0,23%)

(rapid antigen test,
positive results still need to be verified by PCR apparently)
As countries over the world start discovering imported "UK" variant infections, #Japan closes its borders🛑

From monday on,
all foreigners are banned from entering the country.

Nationals and residents may return with a negative test result & quarantine.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
#Sweden has also found one person infected with #B117.

A traveller from #UK went to see his family in Sweden.
He arrived Dec20 and began to feel symptoms.
He performed a #COVID19 self-test: "Positive".

The family was tested, too - all negative, so far...
All authorities say the risk that #B117 would spread from the first case in #Sweden was VERY low.
"He behaved exemplary, even before he felt symptoms".

(He came from UK in a big car.
All the time wearing masks and vizors.
And the windows down...🚙🌬️🥶)
regionsormland.se/nyheter/nyhets…
Sorry, could anyone correct me if I´m wrong...?

The story that #Sweden´s first #B117 case came by car with windows down, from #UK, was found here🔎:
svt.se/nyheter/lokalt… Image
#Spain announces 4 cases of infections with the "UK" Variant #B117 in Madrid.

One is a flight passenger who arrived from UK on Dec20.

(and then it gets a bit confusing...)
One young man arrived by plane from UK in Madrid, mid last week.
His rapid antigen test upon arrival was "positive".

Apparently he was sent to isolate at home🤷

...now, cases 2,3&4 are his family in Madrid.
They showed symptoms this week.
#B117 in #Spain
vozpopuli.com/espana/coronav…
#Madrid´s Vice Counselor for Health (and pandemic planning) tweeted about the 4 cases of #B117
something like:

"~It´s not that bad. Don´t panic~"
😎 Image
#Switzerland´s authorities are in holiday mode.
So there´s no official statement yet, just an article:

now, there are 3 cases of #B117 in CH.
All are visitors from UK.

Contacts are checked.
"In this special case even contacts of contacts are traced..."
nau.ch/news/schweiz/b…
Oh, #Canada!
"The confirmed (#B117) cases identified are from a couple from Durham Region with
NO known travel history, exposure or high-risk contacts.
😕
Durham Region is east of Toronto."
cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
When #B117 is not a big deal - Australia-style:

"Since March, all international travelers arriving in #Australia have been required to undergo government mandated 14 day #Quarantine"
adelaidenow.com.au/coronavirus/uk…
When #B117 is no big deal - #Sweden-style:

"Unaware" of the entry ban, one flight from London still landed in Stockholm

No authorities made contact with the 29 passengers.
"Self-Test & Self-isolation responsibility lies with the travellers themselves"
🥳
aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/JJ6x…
Yep,
#Sweden´s approach to #COVID19 is very much 🥳

After his forces were "totally surprised" by flight passengers arriving from UK,
Sweden´s Head of National Border Police tweeted this...
😕
(although I´d agree that the word "Mutantvirus" is silly, too)
Image
#Sweden´s Head of Border Police is much more🕵️‍♂️in saying:
"Swedish citizens always have the right to enter the country."
(They still can do it by car...)
Quarantine is at home, not at the border.
And the standard protocol asks them to covid-test themselves.
tt.omni.se/brittiskt-flyg…
A serious approach on #B117:

When last flights from UK arrived a week ago, Italy´s #Campania region tested all passengers...

7 out of 245 passengers turned out to be #COVID19 "positive".
They then started *testing all UK arrivals* since 14 days before...
napoli.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/1…
...samples of those who tested "positive" in the large ´UK arrival backwards screening´ were then sent to #TIGEM institute for sequencing.

Results are out now...
6 of them carried the #B117 variant.
#TIGEM didn´t sequence only UK travllers, but also other positive cases in the region.

They created a "map" of the different occuring virus variants in #Campania *at that moment*

Out of 115 positive #COVID19 cases,
six (5.2%) carried the #B117 variant.
corrieredelmezzogiorno.corriere.it/napoli/cronaca… Image
(Note: break of quarantine costs 10.000 CHF🇨🇭)

"200 Brits disappear overnight"
after #Switzerland had ordered them to quarantine at their hotels.

"Some reported they´d be in #France, now..."

This will get nasty, soon...🤦
(if all of this is true)
20min.ch/story/200-brit…
A text message from #Switzerland´s authorities had informed #UK travellers of their obligation to quarantine for 10 days at their hotel.

Identity and contact data of all (also all escaped) travellers is known to swiss authorities...
🤷🤦
orf.at/stories/319516…
Local🇨🇭authorities tried to arrange flights back home for #UK Tourists,
but when it turned out the passengers needed to prove completed quarantine, the guests declined.

Some CH locals now mistake resident Brits for tourists and start harassing them...
🤦
grenchnertagblatt.ch/schweiz/hunder…
#Switzerland,
Regional president of Valais:

"I suppose they´ll be in London now, in quarantine"
"You can´t control every single one"

´Of 420 #UK guests who should quarantine in Verbier / Bagnes, only ~a dozen is still there´...
🏃‍♀️🚴‍♂️🏇💨🇨🇭
20min.ch/story/lueckenl…
Regional president of Valais (#Switzerland), in an interview:

"I can´t tell you the numbers. Certainly, some have vanished ...
Federal authorities didn´t hand us over relevant data in time, so we didn´t know who had to quarantine"
#COVID🇨🇭#CHaos
rts.ch/info/regions/v…
Meanwhile, in #London:
🚑Ambulance crews waiting ~6 hours to hand over patients to hospitals.

"The demand is occurring because of the rapid spread of the new variant, predicted to spread further across the rest of the capital in the coming days and weeks"
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Update:
#Canada´s ´mysterious´ first 2 cases of infection with the #B117 variant
seem to have been infected by a traveller from #UK.
theglobeandmail.com/canada/article…
The secret of the missing Brits...
#Verbier
"Some have returned by own means,
some have taken a return-flight organised by #UK for their nationals..."
Says president of #Switzerland´s Valais.

(in bad Skype quality, but with subtitles it´s comprehensible)
rts.ch/play/tv/redire… Image
Updates:
#Switzerland detected
3 "UK" variant #B117 carriers, in:
Zurich, Grisons, Liechtenstein

NEW
2 "South Africa" variant #501V2 carriers.
One is in Schwyz.
The other one is currently in .... #France (?!!!)
🤨
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
The "UK" variant #B117 was detected in a family who had returned to South Korea from UK on Dec22 (3 family members).

There are investigations if an earlier #COVID19 case (also returnee from UK, spreading to his family in S Korea) also carried this variant
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202012…
From #Lockdown to #Gridlock.

#Italy has issued a national ~2 week lockdown period during year´s end holidays.
There are only 3 days with open shops (starting today)...

and then it snowed !
🌨️☃️🚗🚙🚕🛺🚌🏎️🚐🛻🚚🚛🚜
google.de/maps/@45.53025… Image
What happens, if a person received an #overdose of Biontech/Pfizer´s COVID #vaccine?🤔

That just happened in #Germany:

8 nurses accidentally received 5 times the prescribed dose (entire bottle in 1 shot!)🙄
-flu-like symptoms
-observation in hospital🤒
ndr.de/nachrichten/me…
The "UK" variant #B117 is here and there and everywhere...

The #Netherlands have found 11 carriers, so far.

Only *one* isolated case in Nijmegen had been to #UK, recently. He has no connection to the other cases...
dagblad010.nl/Rotterdam%20&%…
For 5 of #Netherland´s #B117 infections, a connection could be found:

They are linked to a very unusual, LARGE outbreak at an ELEMENTARY #School (in Rotterdam)
40 infected teachers AND #STUDENTS, there - since end of November.
Mass sequencing has started.
ad.nl/rotterdam/uitb…
Netherland´s #RIVM already did a first screening of 250 earlier #COVID19 cases in Rotterdam region.

They found
´more than 95% of those cases were NOT the "UK" variant´ #B117...

They´ll continue screening with more samples...
rivm.nl/nieuws/verspre… Image
The "UK" variant #B117 has also been detected in #Germany, again.

An elderly man had died from it, end November.
His wife was also infected.
They had not been to UK.

But their daughter had returned from UK mid-November.
rnd.de/gesundheit/mut…
#Denmark is ramping up its search for the "UK" variant #B117 in their country...
(Link to document: ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…)
Image
Based on their mass sample sequencing,
#Denmark states:
- #B117 was found in all regions
- mid November: around Copenhagen
- Since December: North Jutland🤔🐿️
- Signs of community spread, but still at low level

Document:
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede…
(Auto-translated version:) Image
Tokyo has so far had ~57.000 #COVID19 cases.
~1 % of them are under treatment for #LongCovid.

of which
97% feel exhausted
86% depression
73% breathing problems
52% hair loss
27% taste disorders

114 of them can´t get out of bed for at least half of week.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2020… Image
The case of vanishing Brits from #Verbier shows a chaotic picture of #Switzerland:
Local spokesman
"Regional & federal authorities gave them authorisation to leave"
"After all, it´s the federals´ business to manage quarantine"

(🇨🇭Federal authorities deny)
rts.ch/play/tv/19h30/… Image
On December 22 (a day after the mandatory quarantine for all who arrived from #UK since Dec14 came into force)
#Switzerland´s TV did an interview with Brits in #Verbier:

"We have to stay inside. So we´re actually going to go home tomorrow"...
😉
facebook.com/srfnews/videos… Image
Meanwhile,
#UK´s secretary of transport has published new "official" test results and comment for truck drivers, trying to cross the border to #France:
21.849 Tests, "just" 66 of them tested positive (0,3%)

(Note: that´s with rapid antigen tests!)
#UK´s truck driver tests (0,3% positive)
(unfairly) compared to (voluntary) rapid antigen mass testing in #Austria

(0,1%-0,5% positive
~3 weeks ago,
when Austria´s test positivity with PCR tests was ~14%)
de.statista.com/statistik/date… Image
#Switzerland´s National #COVID19 Science Task Force presents a model, how case numbers would behave, if new Virus variants (#B117, #501v2) would kick in.
(Despite current measures...)
Image
#Switzerland (if virus variants would spread)
Case number development with
measures, currently good for R=0.9 (orange)
measures, currently good for R=0.8 (blue)
real R is currently ~0.9 but not reliable (holiday effects)

Dotted line: enhanced Tracing/Testing/Isolation/Quarantine Image
#Verbier
"On Dec21, when a text message from Swisscom went out to travellers and news started to break of the new rules, 🔹#Switzerland´s authorities gave #Brits the option to return home rather than quarantine🔹"

Exactly what Ischgl (AT) did earlier...
wheretoskiandsnowboard.com/blogs/what-rea… Image
#Rotterdam
"Infections started slowly - but when it suddenly started to spread at great speed, we decided to close the #School completely"

"Until then, we hadn´t seen any large #Cluster in elementary schools"

It´s #B117. But still no link to #UK, so far.
rijnmond.nl/nieuws/202560/…
Another case of infection with #B117 in #Germany.

A man from North Rine-Westphalia got infected (and recovered) at the beginning of December.
His infection has no links to #UK.

"He was infected by a colleague from #CzechRepublic ..."
🤨
presse-service.de/data.aspx/stat… Image
#Chile
"On December 22 at 6:35 am, a Chilean passenger arrived on a flight from Madrid and was PCR-tested at the airport. She had spent a week in #London visiting relatives.
Dec23, her test result returned positive..." #B117
(Also took a connecting flight)
Oh, that #B117 infected flight passenger in #Chile...
she got tested at Santiago airport, when arriving from Europe.
And departed on another flight before her (positive) test result arrived.
🙄📜.......🛫
#Rotterdam Health Authority:
(Elementary school & #B117)

"It´s remarkable that so many young children at this school have been infected"

"Until now, we thought children would not take part in spreading #COVID19.
But this might have us change our view..."
nos.nl/artikel/236246… Image
"I was surprised at how quickly everyone became infected. Really everyone who had been around my child tested positive,' says one parent."
(Elementary #School, #B117, #Netherlands)

meanwhile, one teacher passed away.
ad.nl/rotterdam/bove…
"It's spreading rapidly from the places where it's started, in the east of London and in Kent.
And, alas, it's starting to seed across the country."

#B117 #UK
bbc.com/news/uk-554899…
#Singapore has no luck with people bringing #B117 from #UK and slipping it into the country,
despite sophisticated test & quarantine...
BTW,
how are our one-time rapid antigen tested,
quarantine-free truck drivers from #UK doing, today?

Ah! "Just" 0,33% have been found to be acutely infectious, so far.
That´s 96 exported outbreaks stopped.
👍
The #UK / #France border management has been compared to "developping nations´ standards".

That was certainly unjustified...
▫️Cleaning and
▫️New drivers
at the border!
👨‍🔧🔁🧑‍🔧
#Rwanda
seems to be very strict,
to prevent #COVID19 from spreading.
“Rwanda has introduced tough and unrealistic measures to the Industry which will disrupt the entire supply chain and undermine the efficiency, seamlessness and cost-effectiveness of cargo transportation in the Region”
So they settled for... testing.
🇬🇧🤷🇫🇷
theeastafrican.co.ke/news/ea/Tanzan…
"Elementary #School students are spreading infections with this #UK variant (#B117).
That´s not normal. It is something to be worried about..."
😟
Says #Netherlands´ Health Minister.
(More test results from a recent school #Cluster came in, today)
dvhn.nl/extra/Hugo-de-…
#B117
#Ireland

Whithin a week
🔸test positivity went from 5% to 18%
🔸 nearly no delay between surge in cases and hospital admissions (doubled)
🔸R =1.6~1.8

"~This is different from the waves before!~"
⚠
#B117
#Ireland

"Spreading at a rate faster than even the most pessimistic modelling"

irishtimes.com/news/health/le…
Also in China´s archived first "new disease" statement
(2019-12-31)🔎

"The disease is preventable and controllable.

▫️Keep indoor settings ventilated,
▫️Avoid closed public places and crowded places with poor air circulation,
▫️Wear masks when going out"
Image
#China one year later:
#B117
The patient tested "negative" on Dec12
2 days before flying UK->China

"She described running in a park without mask and taking off her mask to eat and drink while waiting to board the plane, which may be when she was infected"
chinadaily.com.cn/a/202012/30/WS… Image
In #Japan,
it would be that time of year, when most companies close.
To let everyone have one of the rare periods to spend with their elderly family in the countryside...

Not this year.
(None of the usual traffic jams and crowded trains.
It´s "Stay Home")
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
The 🇯🇵 #NHK article has info like:
"The infected are in age groups of 10 to 100+ years."
"If this continues, it would lead to an ´infection explosion´..."

But this 🇬🇧version has the voice of the narrator that suggests:
Something is clearly wrong, here.
😧
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Explaining #Ireland´s surging #COVID19 cases (beyond #B117):

"The average number of contacts per case has risen from 2.5 in November to an average in recent days of 6.3"

"The number of cases are so high that we are experiencing delays in reporting them".
#COVID19 #Uncontained
"Testing and tracing is an exercise in containment.
We are no longer in a containment phase."

All close contacts no longer being tested, in #Ireland.
(But restricted movement applies)
"Royal London Hospital says they´re operating in disaster medicine mode. They can no longer provide high-standard critical care"

There were rumours the EXCEL nightingale had been scrapped and there´d be no staff to operate it - so, don´t expext too much.
#London
"The new #Strain and failure of tiers have lead to an unexpected increase in numbers. We are going to have to open more beds"

1 nurse: 3 patients. The ratio has been changed.

"While this is far from ideal, it´s the way things are"
"Every #hospital in North East #London is struggling, some with insufficient oxygen supplies, all with insufficient nursing numbers.

"#Kent is in a similar, if not worse, position."
itv.com/news/2020-12-3…
Pardon

A resident of #France came back from South Africa.
It was only a few days after his return,
(when he felt #COVID19 symptoms)
that he decided to get a PCR test in #Switzerland (?)
And then isolated at home (in France).

Some jolly border crossings🙄
solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/cp_-_3… Image
Confusing:
#France "discovered" their first #COVID19 case with the "South Africa" (#501V2) variant yesterday.
Although #Switzerland´s authorities already reported it 4 days ago...

🤷🇨🇭: People happen to vanish there... and then pop up in other places.
The #COVID19 situation in #Ireland, this morning:

"The pace of the third wave of the virus has taken everyone by surprise".

"It may be necessary to go even beyond the current Level 5 restrictions."
rte.ie/news/2021/0101…
#Ireland´s NPHET had already warned 2 days ago:
The current case curve is resembling the blue / red lines in the graph below📈.
As there is severe underrepporting, the actual situation might be even more serious...
assets.gov.ie/117748/e3b13a2… Image
#France Ille-et-Vilaine prefecture activated its Crisis Operation Center, because of...
a rave party that´s been going on since yesterday.
It went a bit out of hands.

This morning, they counted 2.500 participants, from all across France (and Poland)🔊🕺
The organizers of #France´s large illegal rave don´t understand the fuss.
They complain that no-one takes note of their effort to provide a stand with free masks and hand-sanitizer...
😕 Image
Really no-one takes note of the provided free masks...
Not even the ravers.

Latest update:
the rave is still ongoing.
Presumably "until monday".

Meanwhile, the world is watching #France...
Even The New York Times has reported on #France's #raveparty issue.

But that's just headlines.
The real problems would start, if the region's neighbors got the impression that France is losing control...
(remember France demanded tests for lorry drivers?)
But maybe, one problem is still totally "unreal" for most of the ravers (and most of us):
#B117
"There are 20-30 year olds coming in, with no other underlying conditions. Many don't even realize how sick they are"...

(oxygen deficiency tricks the brain).
Maybe we'd better take the risks of #B117 seriously.

Until now, the saying was "for the future of our #children, #schools need to stay open".

But there's a shift, now:
The future will need healthy children...
The rave party in #France is over.
(And that´s not a #COVID test station, they´re heading to...)
In August ´20, there had been an open-air rave of 10.000 folks in #France.

During evacuation, "2 #COVID19 test centres" were deployed (for voluntary testing)
No results reported. They would have gone under in France´s 2nd wave 2-3 weeks later, anyway...
Today, Regional Health Authorities say they provided ~500 rapid (antigen) tests to the site of #France´s rave party.
They also urge everyone who has been there to isolate 7 days at home and get tested after that.
francebleu.fr/infos/faits-di…
(Remarkable) Details on #Germany´s 1st discovered case of #B117:
That young lady on the last flight from London,
she had already been transferred to a Quarantine Hotel (👍didn´t know we had this)

...and then her father insisted to take her home.
🙄
schwarzwaelder-bote.de/inhalt.corona-…
Meanwhile, in #France:

"A #COVID19 rapid antigen testing center is set up in front of the gymnasium of Lieuron. The participants of the #Raveparty are ´strongly encouraged´ to go there..."
#B117 in #Switzerland:
A schoolboy (9 years) from London.
His school in #UK had been closed, due to #COVID19 cases.
He & his mother had spent 10 day 🇬🇧quarantine, then took a flight to CH (Dec20), 7 day 🇨🇭quarantine.
In CH, mother & son tested "positive".
Image
Suddenly, UK comes up with quite reasonable solutions.

-🚛#COVID19 testing centres along the motorways
-free support for transport companies to establish their own testing centres (🤔what would they do with a "positive" result?)

Interesting to see...!
Image
#UK government is excercising pressure on some counties to reopen #Schools on monday.
No one understands why this must happen, while #COVID19 cases are still surging.

And it seems it is brewing up a fierce storm...
kentonline.co.uk/thanet/news/co… Image
While parents suggest they´d rather not send their kids to #School,
#UK National Education Union advised their members that "it is unsafe to return to work on monday".
Image
The National Association of Headteachers is taking the extraordinary step to take legal action against #UK´s Department of Education...
😯
in order to stop schools from opening on monday.
Image
The first local authority is now bypassing #UK government.

“The Government has left us to make this decision that it is not brave enough to face..."

Primary #Schools close / go remote
#NewZealand has detected 6 cases of the #B117 virus variant, so far.

No worries - all of them were discovered while they were in "Managed Isolation"...

Interestingly, 5 of them came from #UK.
And one came from... South Africa (!)
🤔
health.govt.nz/news-media/med… Image
In #UK, more councils would prefer to keep #schools closed.
This is from #Cumbria, going the official way,
sending good arguments to the government...
#Essex doesn´t wait any longer.
They just declared schools would remain closed.

"This is to allow ECC to clarify the Government position on primary schools..."😯

Image
#Tier4 is in force since Dec19. It´s 2 weeks now.
Usually, it takes ~3 weeks until results show how well measures work.⌛️
So, "in a week or so" might be a good time to see
if Tier 4 would be appropriate for other #UK regions...
(if you´d have that time)
Those Brits from #Verbier, who "disappeared over night" -

That wasn´t a clandestine escape from #Switzerland´s authorities.

It was🇨🇭Switzerland´s plan!

(which somehow wasn´t clear. Maybe it got entangled in typical federal-cantonal dissonance)
🙄👉👈😑
bazl.admin.ch/bazl/en/home/m… Image
#UK Health & Safety regulations give workers the right to ~refrain from unsafe work.
Many teachers are now declaring they won´t come to #School, tomorrow.

(Unions had already stated conditions in schools were "not safe")
"The four English patients are family members -- parents and two children -- from Kent."

#B117 #Thailand
bangkokpost.com/thailand/gener…
Being relaxed😎

"Thailand's Disease Centre urged the public not to panic as #Thailand is familiar with the fast-spreading Covid-19 strain -- known as G-strain -- found in Myanmar migrant workers.

#B117 is similar to the G-strain from Myanmar in terms of it being fast-spreading"
Oh. That´s not the "#COVID19-under-control" #Thailand we had known for so long...

(Current updates say, today´s number could be ~850)
😕
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co… Image
Well, more ´official´ numbers say, #Thailand has just registered a new record of 745 #COVID19 cases.
bangkokpost.com/thailand/gener… Image
#Thailand´s new #COVID19 outbreak started at...
a seafood market.

Despite drastic measures (including barbed wire around some housings) the outbreak has now spread to more than 51 provinces.
This is how it started, ~2 weeks ago:
#Cyprus found that 12 out of 19 recently imported cases from UK carried #B117
😯
"Of 19 positive tests for #COVID19 recorded on individuals who arrived in Cyprus from Britain between Dec. 6-20, Cypriot authorities found that 12 were for the new variant."
de.reuters.com/article/uk-hea…
#Austria does very sporadic sequencing.
But even there, #SARSCoV2 variants have now been detected:
1x "South Africa" #501V2
4x "UK" #B117... interestingly/confusingly only 2 with the "UK" variant had been to UK (?????)🤨
sarscov2-austria.org Image
3 of #Austria´s 4 "UK" #B117 variant cases were children (12 / 10 / 9 years old). One came from #UK. The other 2 are from Slovakia (???)
Confusing...

"Even though they quarantined with (uninfected) family members, there is NO TRANSMISSION known"😯
orf.at/stories/319600…
😯#Austria found their 5 virus variant cases while sequencing samples of only 388 cases.

(targeted samples, like passengers from UK, but... that´s still ~1% of samples were already virus variants !!)
#Austria:
"The both Kids who were infected with the ´UK´ variant #B117 returned immediately to Slovakia..."
(Video at 31´35")

🤨(they brought their infection with #B117 from #Slovakia????)
tvthek.orf.at/topic/News/138… Image
The "UK" variant #B117 has just been confirmed in #Slovakia. It has been identified "in the first samples" examined from Michalovce district.😕

Michalovce is a small town at the far eastern end of Slovakia, close to the border to Ukraine...
teraz.sk/slovensko/v-sr…
#Denmark does a lot of sequencing.
They were sequencing constantly ~10% of all #COVID19 cases in December.

They found: #B117 is on the rise,
exponentially.📈

week
49: 0.2% were #B117 (´UK´ variant)
50: 0.5%
51: 0.9%
52: 2.3%

(we´re 2 weeks later, now)
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
#UK 🇬🇧 England
#Lockdown
#Schools
closed now.
#AUS 🇦🇺Victoria
#Lockdown
#Schools

earlier, last year.
#AUS 🇦🇺Victoria

needs to stay
determined &
strong

in 2021 as well...
New #COVID19 outbreak.
(it came from #NSW. #VIC borders closed, but not a lockdown, yet)
Meanwhile, in #NSW,
a potentially "explosive" infection source was discovered.

And it was seeded by *very short* contacts.
overseas travellers⤵️
↪️quarantine transfer staff
↪️colleague
↪️Beer, Wine, Spirits Shop employees
Thousands of customers...
7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the…
#NSW just found out:
A young man got infected while briefly visiting the "explosively infectious" Beer/Wine/Spirits shop in Sydney.

And then went on a road trip,
for "thousands of kilometres", across the state...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
~A week ago #Switzerland had found one swiss carrier of #501V2 ('South Africa' variant).

Until today, it is unexplicable where he got it from.
He, his contacts and his contacts' contacts had no connection to South Africa.

➡"It must be in the community"
srf.ch/article/193647…
Switzerland's #501V2 case was discovered by random sequencing.

#Denmark is sequencing ~10% of all their #COVID19 cases.
They say they'd found no carrier of this 'South Africa' variant in DK, so far.

(they soon want to be sequencing 25% of cases)
berlingske.dk/danmark/sydafr…
Based on #Denmark's sequencing results, DK's Health Minister confirmed:
the 'UK' variant #B117 is there and it's presence is growing exponentially.

"By February, #B117 will be dominating in Denmark".

(ℹWas 2.3% two weeks ago.
Would be ~10% this week...)
In #Ireland, just a few days ago:
"With <10% of all cases, #B117 is not the cause for current surge"
(based on samples from December 23 to 29).
In #Ireland, not even a week later.
"25% of #COVID19 cases are now the #B117 variant"

😕(data base is unclear, article confusing - but there'll surely be an official report, soon)
The last time, I've been staring at breaking news from #Japan like this was ~10 years ago.

There were also numbers on the screen, the narrator was talking fast.

Back then, the city's panorama was shaking.
This time, the wave is invisible.

#Tokyo: 1.500
After "carefully looking into the situation" for a month, the opinion seeking process with specialists will soon be completed...
#Tokyo's emergency plan might be announced tomorrow.

(Legally, it will be limited to ~asking everyone to behave cautiously)
😐
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Everyone in #Tokyo is insecure, if going to the movies will still be "acceptable behaviour" by tomorrow.

Today it still is.
So cinemas are crowded.

(sorry, those last 11 places are certainly sold by now - #えんとつ町のプペル is a popular anime)
#COVID19
A projection of Tokyo´s #COVID19 future:
🟥current path (R=1.1)
🟨Restaurants close earlier, only
🟦Everyone is doing their best to stop the spread

(The best case will take ~2 months to bring numbers down.)
No, there´s no foreign #Variant in this plan.
🙄
Image
This is not a simple "record number".
It is 55% higher than the same weekday, a week ago.
(Which was also a record).

Better news: although #Japan has had "only" 25 cases with #variants, they managed to isolate #B117 and are happy to share their knowledge!
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
(admittably, #India had already claimed 3 days earlier, they had also isolated the #B117 variant of #SARSCoV2...)
In a statement, #Slovakia´s Health Minister suspects
the #B117 variant might already be present in parts of the country.

("As the curve looks similar to that in England")

They´ll start a search with specific "S-gene primer" tests, soon.
(autotranslated:)
health.gov.sk/Clanok?Stanovi… Image
🇩🇪🙄
Turns out the man in #Germany who was infected with #B117 by a Czech colleague sometime Nov/Dec...

he infected his entire family.
But he was the only one whose samples were sequenced.

"As they had no outside contact, we suppose it was contained".
welt.de/regionales/nrw… Image
🇩🇪😠
Turns out #Germany has no clue how far #B117 etc variants are spread.
There´s no strategy for systematic sequencing of samples from #COVID19 cases.

They will come up with a plan "in the weeks to come"

"Priority: stop variant-import at the border"
aerzteblatt.de/nachrichten/11… Image
🇩🇪😡
While #Germany´s only defence against #B117 was said to be "border controls",
North Rhine-Westphalia just blew it up:

You can chose
a) a 10 day #Quarantine
or
b) a ONE-TIME rapid antigen-test (can be done up to 24 hours AFTER entry for non-🇬🇧🇿🇦)
💥
mags.nrw/pressemitteilu… Image
There was this #School in the #Netherlands, where children were believed to spread #COVID19 infections.

Authorities invited for a mass testing.
750 people (all somehow connected to the school) took part.

First results say: 10% are positive.
#B117, too.
lansingerland.nl/actueel/update… Image
#Netherlands´ health authorities say "this is an update, not end-results":
750 tested
~75 (10%) "positive"
at least 30 of them carry #B117 (´UK´ variant)

And: it has spread to another #School.

Testing will now be massively expanded in that town.
ggdrotterdamrijnmond.nl/nieuws/uitbraa…
Quarantine Hotels are there to prevent entry of #COVID19 , but they aren´t perfect.

A cleaner, working in such a facility in Brisbane (QLD, #AUS) got infected there, with #B117.

She unknowingly went on with her normal life for 5 days, went to town, etc.
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-0…
B117 got out of quarantine.

"This person did everything right".
With #B117, doing everything right
might be not enough.

Yesterday, #Japan had
6.001 cases.
7.490 today.

That´s +25%
in one day.
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
In #Tokyo, there were
1.591 cases yesterday,
2.447 today.

That´s +50%
in one day.

"A senior official said that the speed of the increase is surprising."
#COVID19
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
"#Japan´s Prime Minister had hoped cases would subside at the end of last year.
He affirmed in a news conference on December 25 that a #StateOfEmergency was not required."

"But #COVID19 cases stubbornly refused to go down..."
japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/0…
Now we have a picture of how the #B117 variant is taking hold in #Ireland.

First time registered with
⏺️8.6% (6 cases in 70 samples)
a week later
↗️12.8%
then
↗️24.9%
(the last number is already ~half a week old, so would be higher, today)

(CMO letter):
gov.ie/en/collection/… Image
#Schools & #COVID19
a very ambiguous matter....

#Ireland´s CMO wrote pragmatically
~"We still believe, kids are quite safe in schools.
But somehow closing schools does lower overall case numbers in society. Why this happens? No-one knows for sure... 🤷‍♂️"
assets.gov.ie/118212/b00522b… Image
This is, how #Ireland´s Health Minister (to whome the CMO letters are sent) interprets the advice on #Schools...
Seems #Ireland has decided to open *some* #Schools after the weekend. And somehow, this decision (and the decision process) is not well understood by ... well, a lot of people.
At the same time in #Ireland:
R >2
Variants already play a roll
"extraordinary high" #COVID19 positivity rates are being seen, as high as 40-50% in community testing.

"The message now is that if you think you have Covid-19, you probably do."
The ´UK´ variant #B117 also seems to play a bigger roll in the #Netherlands than expected.

"It seems that already 1-5% of new #COVID19 cases in #NL are the new variant" (in Amsterdam& Rotterdam)

(NL virologist, busy with screening cases for new variants)
nos.nl/liveblog/23633…
#Ireland´s idea to reopen (at least some) #Schools looks questionable.

A large Teachers´ Union just announced they had not seen convincing data that schools would be ´sufficiently safe´ in the context of #B117 variant and high #COVID19 numbers.
asti.ie/news-campaigns… Image
And....
another media realease from #Ireland´s teachers´ union:

Due to "significant health & safety concerns" they direct their members "not to co-operate", but to "engage in remote learning" instead.

#Schools & #COVID19 / #B117
asti.ie/news-campaigns… Image
#Ireland🚀#COVID19
R 2.4~3
(as a result of infections that happened ~2 weeks ago)
For those thinking
"Oh, #Incidence 50, that´ll be the goal - we´ll be safe, then..."

That´s where #Ireland was ~2 weeks ago.🔎

(note: that graph is 3 days old. Current case number is ~60% higher than then)
hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator… Image
"Number of contacts"
that´s an awesome indicator!

(if you still have an operating contact tracing system)

#Ireland calculated: contacts per case have been reduced from 4.8 (X-mas time🙄) to ~3 now.
So they suggest infection numbers might plateau, soon.
Oulalaaa

One "person working in education" has somehow been infected with #B117 in #France.
No contact to UK.

But many contacts in the 2 schools near Paris, where the person was working...
bfmtv.com/sante/variant-…
😔
Another B117 cluster in #France.
It´s a geriatric nursing home.
A nurse carried the ´UK´ variant.

It has already spread to a second ward.
2 staff members, 7 residents are positive with #B117 so far. But there are more infections, waiting to be analyzed
solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/cp_mss… Image
To get a picture how far #B117 has already spread (through its appearance in an education worker),
the city of #Bagneux (near Paris, #France) will offer tests for the entire community.

(Note: Tests not available on sunday. It's the weekend, after all!)😕
Meanwhile, #Australia:

"Greater #Brisbane will go into lockdown for three days, while contact tracers work to ensure #B117 is not circulating in the community."

3 days to sort it out.

(after a quarantine hotel's cleaner unknowingly brought it into town)
2 months ago, #Fance´s utility #RTE had warned

"Due to the #pandemic, a lot of nuclear #power plants could not be maintained as usual and will be out of service in early 2021.
In case of cold temperatures, there might be energy scarcity."

It´s happening:
"🔴#France´s current energy consumption is too high!
To avoid imminent blackouts⚡️, save #energy !

- Switch off lights
- turn (electric) heaters to low, when absent
- don´t charge your phone
- delay use of washing machines"

Do check the website:
monecowatt.fr/?refresh=16100… Image
#France´s utility #RTE is reassuring:

"There are no blackouts planned.
In case they would happen,
hospitals do have emergency backup generators"

😐

An update from the geriatric nursing home in #France:
they are infected, but sequencing of the first sample showed it´s not #B117.

It´s still a #COVID19 cluster...
bretagne.ars.sante.fr/covid-19-point… Image
People don´t realise how incredibly bad ventilated a car cabin is. Aerosols accumulate in short time.
So, if you open the window, an (invisible, but concentrated) whiff will make its way out...
#B117 arrived in #Berlin,
a lo😴😐🙄ng time ago.

One case was found via retrospective sequencing, now.
Several contacts had been infected as well.
They all have recovered since then.

Ah, maybe there were 2 more contacts, before the case was isolated...
berlin.de/sen/gpg/servic… Image
🏍️💨
#B117 is too fast

"The entire family got infected within a day"

A family member (student in #UK) who had returned for a Christmas visit brought the virus to #Berlin...

(they were tested on December 23,
the first sequencing result came in today)🐌⌛️
tagesspiegel.de/berlin/nach-ei… Image
"System Operators ensured that the system stability was not affected in most European countries."

🙄 Hey.
What´s this.
Sounds good.
It´s got nothing to do with #COVID19, does it?
.
#France:
non, non, non !
"In no way has the near blackout of the European #Energy grid anything to do with our warning today."

(Actually, they saved the grid by cutting supply to 16 industrial sites in France).
⚡️✂️⬛️
🤨But, has that near blackout anything to do with #COVID19?

Well....
As France couldn´t maintain their nuclear power plants last year (due to #COVID19),
too many plants are offline now.
There´s no reserve capacity, if things go slightly wrong...
🕯️
🙄
#Romania experienced a widespread blackout, today.
They say "there was a problem with the european network".

And they found a first case of #B117 as well.
The young lady hadn´t been out of Romania.

Not a good day.😫
rfi.ro/social-129276-…
New #COVID19 data from #Denmark´s SSI:

#B117 is continuing its exponential rise📈

Week 49: 0.2%
50: 0.5%
51: 0.9%
52: 1.9%
53: (2.9%, results are not all ready, yet)

("only a few of the cases had some contact link to the #UK"😦)
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
#Denmark´s SSI says,
screening for #B117 variant with traditional sequencing (2 week procedure) would simply take too long.

Therefore they want to roll out a new "Delta PCR" test,
enabling them to screen *ALL* positive #COVID19 cases.
Start: ~next week
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Another case of #B117 in Brisbane!
(by test result)
Or maybe not... anymore...
(by law)
it´s complicated
One lady flew from UK to Melbourne.
Quarantined there. Tested #COVID19 "positive".
Completed her 10 day quarantine and was released, as rules are.
Flew to Brisbane then.

THEN 🐌sequencing results came: she had (had) #B117.
(Another test: still "positive")
Maybe, a faster #B117 screening would have prevented the new Brisbane scare.

Or an appropriate quarantine period, allowing to wait for the slower sequencing results (which is what seems to be done, now)...
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-0…
The fire department🚒of Marseille (#France) has a very special duty:
They take wastewater samples to analyse them for #COVID19 markers.🪣🦠🔬

2 days ago, they noted that the markers had suddenly started to go up.📈

They worried,
and they were right...
Regional Health Authority:

"A returnee from #UK tested #COVID19 ´positive´ on Dec31, in Marseille (#France).
He had 45 close contacts, 23 of them tested ´positive´, so far.

Latest news:
the index case is carrier of the #B117 variant..."

😫
#Marseille fire department´s wastewater surveillance is a dedicated #COVID19 detection force.
They take samples of ~100 nursing homes, every week.
They also take sewer samples.
"Sometimes we can prevent clusters before the first person even shows symptoms"
woah,
#Berlin - are you alright there?

You guys at the statistics department all enjoyed your lazy holidays and now you´re back at work... that must be it.
Or should we be worried ?

+50% #COVID19 incidence
in ~3 days
berlin.de/corona/lageber… Image
Update on the spread of #B117 in the #Netherlands:
🟡ALL Willibrord-#School cases are infected with the ´UK´ variant.
⚠️Infections have already spread outside of school setting (contacts of families)

(Actually 3 days old, but it was very hard to find...)
nltimes.nl/2021/01/08/bri… Image
Due to an alarming surge in #COVID19 cases,
#Tokyo is under "State of Emergency".

The traditional Sumo tournament still goes on.
65 wrestlers will be missing, because they´re infected or close contacts.

But there´s also one more who will not take part...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Due to concerns about #COVID19 infections at #Tokyo´s Sumo tournament, one wrestler asked for allowance to stay away.

Japan´s Sumo association denied his wish as being "unreasonable"

So he ended his career💪
In Marseille (#France), 23 of 45 known contacts of a #B117 carrier from #UK tested #COVID19 "positive".
Already 7 of them have now been confirmed to carry the ´UK´ variant.

The fire department is deployed with special test teams to confine the outbreak.
bfmtv.com/politique/mars…
The fire department´s COMETE
(COvid #Marseille Environment Testing & Expertise)
unit uses 2 mobile labs and 10 rapid-testing teams.

Through wastewater samples they encircled one specific house today.
30 inhabitants were tested:
2 more #COVID19 cases found
A video of Marseille´s COMETE #COVID19 detection unit in action. (Using LAMP assay for SARS-CoV-2 detection, it seems).

(It´s dated April 2020. They were pretty swiftly adopting to the new challenge, there...)
Another day, another #B117 case in #France:
This time in popular ski region Hautes-Alpes.

The story is the same as in Marseille:
"A french family, residing in #UK came to France to spend their holidays..."

(Case and contacts isolated, now)
Slovakia´s Health Minister, after finding ´UK´ virus cases in yet another city (Bratislava):

"Seems the new variant (#B117) has already been distributed to every region of #Slovakia and thus isolating individual regions at this stage would be pointless."
newsnow.tasr.sk/policy/krajci-…
🌎From #Brazil to #Japan🧬
Another new #SARSCoV2 variant was detected in 4 passengers from the Amazonas region, who arrived at Haneda airport on January 2.

(Yes, there are many variants, but this is maybe another one to watch out for...)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
It´s not yet clear, what the new variant from #Brazil is capable of, but it also has the "increased infectiousness" mutation.

(Here´s info from #Japan, where the new variant was discovered):
Checking wastewater for #COVID19 indicators:

"The #B117 strain could be detected by mid December,
2 weeks before its first verification in a patient sample from #Switzerland..."
The #Brisbane 3-day radical #Lockdown ends.

They think they got #B117 under control.
It was just one Index case...
and they guess they found all 370 close contacts.

They are all quarantined and tested.

0 new cases in the community, so far.
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-1…
Would #Brisbane consider another #Lockdown again?

"It depends if it's from this UK variant, this is a whole new ball game - it's something we've never seen before…"

(Half of 370 contacts have so far returned ´negative´ test results, so there´s hope)
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-1…
In #France, things are still a long way from "under control"...

The case of #B117 in the Hautes-Alpes ski area turns out to be a family member of the index case who caused infections in Marseille.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
It's not over, in #Brisbane.
But it's reassuring to know that all contacts of the index case are believed to be in quarantine already...

(+In case one went unnoticed: masks remain mandatory and several other measures will stay in place for 10 more days.)
A while ago, "some people" went skiing in the beautiful mountain village of Wengen (#Switzerland).
Before they returned home, they left something behind.

#B117 outbreak now.
Everyone is urged to stay indoors.
(✳Yes, including tourists✳)

Image
#Switzerland´s authorities are "worried about the aggressive spread of infections" in Wengen.
They assume "this effect is caused by the ´UK´ mutation" #B117

They are so worried that
they just cancelled

Lauberhorn Worldcup

worth ~9 million CHF
⛷️❌💰❌
Image
Just a few hours before regional authorities withdrew their approval,
#Lauberhorn worldcup organizers
were appeasing:

"The races are not cancelled, yet.
We still look into the situation..."

(#B117 outbreak Wengen, #Switzerland)
Image
#Lauberhorn worldcup organizers are in shock.

And the wording ~"cantonal authorities decided..." + "we support their decision"
is usually a strong indicator that authorities didn´t negotiate much, but ordered the whole thing to close immediately
😮
Image
An update on the teacher who carried #B117 while working at 2 schools, near #Paris:

First results for her 172 colleagues are in:
2 are #COVID19 "positive".
They are also teachers.

(interestingly, no other carrier of the ´UK´ variant was found, so far...)
The history of the #B117 outbreak in Marseille goes (so far):

French family from #UK comes to enjoy X-mas with ~15 friends in #Marseille.🥂☣️🎄
One of the infected then goes off to celebrate New Year´s Eve with ~12 friends...🥂☣️🎇

and so on.
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes…
Here we get a look behind the scenes of #Marseille´s #COVID19 hunting fire brigade unit ´COMETE´.
🚒🧬👨‍🔬
(like adventurous innovators always do, they installed their lab in a garage...)
lci.fr/societe/video-… Image
#Marseille´s #B117 outbreak:
Prequel

The family from #UK got tested, before they left for #France: negative.
They self-isolated 4 days in France, then got tested again negative.
At their party in Marseille, everyone did a rapid (antigen) test: negative
🤨
dna.fr/sante/2021/01/…
Another X-mas visit from #UK, in #France.
"Upon the very first symptoms, the family self-isolated at the grandparents´ house and got tested."

Nevertheless both grandparents got infected.
Grandpa needed to go to hospital (Dec 29).

Tests at hospital, now.
That map (beginning of the clip) is supposed to show all regions of #France where #B117 cases have been detected, so far.

Some of them happened early as mid-December.
Some of them had no #UK contacts.

(what happened in Aquitaine? Haven´t found a report.)
#Austria found some "suspicious anomaly" in 17 PCR Tests from #Tyrol
(~pointing to #B117).

Then they found out: most tests came from #UK citizens.
They all arrived before Dec18 - First symptoms on Jan3. (⚠)

(They came for skiing instructors' training)🎿
The situation in Wengen (#Switzerland) sounds drastic.

One #UK guest initiated a chain of #B117 infections ~Dec27 (or before).
First, it hit the hotel staff.
Then it spread into the village.
Now, new infections come in continuosly.

~"We couldn´t stop it"
be.ch/portal/de/inde… Image
Authorities think #B117 infections may also have affected 80 kids, who spent their holidays skiing in Wengen
(Some already tested #COVID19 "positive").

Holidays are over.

They all have returned back to home
(somewhere else in #Switzerland)...
🚸
srf.ch/news/schweiz/v… Image
Due to the rapid rise of #B117 infections, #Lauberhorn ski worldcup was cancelled. Installations in Wengen stand abandoned.

They will now be used for voluntary mass testing of everyone in the village
(👉Yes, this includes tourists👈)
20min.ch/story/kanton-f…
Press conference in #Switzerland🇨🇭today (on #B117):

"Where the new virus variants arrive, the situation becomes alarming very quickly.

Even in situations where we´d thought we had done everything to prevent a spread"
🚨🧬
The #501V2 variant has spread in #Germany.
On Dec13, a family returned from South Africa.

They followed the rules: self isolate, then a test after 5 days.
Their tests came back "negative", so they were "cleared" to go.

Symptoms started a week later...
🙄
A sequencing of the first ´supicious´ case already showed:
#501V2 has arrived to #Germany.

In the time to this discovery, already 3 other households (6 persons) had been infected...

More contacts are about to be sequenced.
zollernalbkreis.de/aktuelles/nach… Image
In the wake of being surrounded by states with outbreaks of new virus variants, #Bavaria just made #FFP2 masks mandatory on public transport and while shopping.

"We need full protection, now.
And they are available in sufficient volumes."
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
Reactions to #FFP2 mask mandate in #Bavaria:

😩They are expensive!
😫And you should not wear them for prolongued time!

😷(idealistic me:) YES, SO STAY THE HECK AWAY FROM PLACES WHERE YOU WOULD NEED TO WEAR MASKS !!!!
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
According to the Mayor,
health authorities have just declared the outbreak of "the mutant virus" #B117 in #Marseille as being under control.
France´s Health Minister just announced that a study on thousands of PCR tests (from Thursday/Friday last week) showed that

"1% of all cases in #France are now the ´UK´ variant #B117"

There´s no concentration in one region. They´re scattered everywhere."
The reference tweet for the "1% of cases in France are now #B117" statement has been moved to another link by BFMTV.

But (even better) here´s the article.
(Adding that the survey will now be repeated regularly)
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
HERE´s what happened in France´s Aquitaine region

Back on December 19,
Europeleague rugby club #Bayonne welcomed the team of Leicester #UK for one match in France...

7 days later, 7 players tested #COVID19 "positive",
another 5 days later, 2 more:👨‍🔬#B117
lci.fr/sante/video-co…
Due to a very worrying rise in case numbers, #Japan has declared a State of Emergency for multiple cities (including #Tokyo).

This is supposed to show a recent picture of Tokyo´s hospital coordination centre.
#テレワークできない 🙄
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
Interesting to see, how #B117 overcomes barriers that were so far deemed to be "safe":

inside the quarantine hotel, where #Brisbane´s index case is isolated, cases of the ´UK´ variant now are spreading to other quarantinees.

No one knows why...
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-1…
Now #Brisbane's Quarantine hotel is deemed so unsafe, that those who had been quarantined there before are now urged to...
immediately quarantine again!
♻
They could be infected with #B117

at least that's the view of another state (#Victoria).
abc.net.au/news/2021-01-1…
~3 weeks after "Tier 4" measures came into force,
England´s case numbers look as if they´d slow down.
Image
Somehow #Switzerland seems to anticipate #COVID19 cases might soon cause workplaces to be hotspots.

New rules issued today, including:
-masks are mandatory at indoor workplaces (regardless of distance !)
-work from home is mandatory (*when ever feasible)
So,
this is #Brisbane´s quarantine hotel,
where #B117 infections were spreading across the 7th floor?
Only on that floor - not above or below?

🤔How could this have happened ??????
mmmmmhhhhhnnn....

🙄
Image
Ah?😧

So we already "have evidence" that the ´South Africa´ variant #501V2 is not fought off by antibodies from earlier "ordinary" #COVID19 infections?

And this is just the explanation why...:
Image
Oh?😧

So the ´Amazonas´ variant from Brazil,
(I think it is named #501V3, now)
is also reinfecting those who had an "ordinary" #COVID19 infection earlier?
virological.org/t/genomic-char…
(via @kenmomd) Image
It's hidden in a presentation on financial aid...

But on page 32,
Switzerland's canton #Vaud calculates:
🔹5-8% of cases are now 'UK' / 'South Africa' variants.
🔹"Possible outbreak of third Wave in 2-3 weeks"
(⚠)
via @slwirth
#B117 #501V2 #COVID19
vd.ch/fileadmin/user… Image
And there's a large #B117 cluster at the LHC...

(nope - not the "Large Hadron Collider"💫)
It's the "Lausanne Hockey Club"!⚾
And they're believed to already have spread infections to other teams (as early as January 2) during hockey matches.
😕
rts.ch/sport/hockey/1…
#UK requires
No quarantine
No testing

Just
No Entry⛔️🤚
due to the ´Brazil´ variant (#B11248)
🇵🇹🤷 Don´t argue.
As a European country with actual borders with #Brazil, #France is ramping up its border protection of their overseas departement French #Guiana.

(It´s much closer to the origin of variant #B11248 in the Amazon than Portugal🌎)
Ah!😦
So this is what it looks like, when the ´Brazil/Amazon´ variant with its "#E484K mutation" comes and infects everyone again

(especially those, who might have thought they were immune, as they´d had #COVID19 in the earlier days...)
🤔What gives better protection than wearing #FFP2 masks on public transport?

😉No public transport!

It´s suggested #Germany is contemplating this step.

(It will need more thorough thinking for sure...
Maybe ´for essential use only´?🤨
Difficult.)
It is thought 17 of the infected "ski instructors" in Tyrol do carry #B117.
A close contact was also tested "positive" today.
His PCR test shows "anomalies", as well.

On the contrary:
~1.000 villagers have been tested so far.
3 "positive", no #B117.
tirol.gv.at/presse/meldung… Image
Wait...what????!
😲

"There's an ongoing concern amongst a lot of health professionals that the Government isn't acting on the possibility of aerosol transmission of COVID-19"

#Queensland doesn't know aerosol transmission of #SARSCoV2 / #COVID19????

#Queensland,
March 2020

"Studies show people are catching COVID19 through larger respiratory droplets when they're close to an infected person.

If with further study we find out this information has changed, we’ll let you know."

😱STILL UNCHANGED TODAY!
health.qld.gov.au/news-events/ne…
Many cities in France have their wastewater analyzed for #COVID19 markers in a central lab called #OBÉPINE.

In their experience, #COVID cases follow wastewater markers after ~3 weeks.

The lab now warned:
the indicators for #Paris have gone up 50%.
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
lesechos.fr/industrie-serv…
National Health Directorate of #France:

"We have detected one case carrying the ´South Africa´ variant #501V2 in Val-de-Marne" (near Paris).

"It seems his contacts are spread over the #Paris region, as well as other regions"...
solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/actualites/pre… Image
I read
year´s end was meant to bring families together.
To bring those who live abroad back to #Lebanon, so they could spend some money in cafés, shops, event locations - they opened just for that period.

It brought some money.
But what did it take away
Trying to hold back the outbreaks,
Lebanon is in #Lockdown, now.
A real lockdown.
24 hour curfew, for 11 days.
Supermarkets are closed.

But there´s delivery service,
if you have the money.

So, only for a few.
Meanwhile, in #Switzerland:
"the death rate is the price we pay to keep our economy running"

Even there, the price is seen as too high, now.
Switzerland's #COVID19 Science Task Force:

(campaigning for massive measures' roll-out, using swiss-style arguments:)

"With vaccination in sight, preventing infections will bevome more cost-effective.
Such measures could be seen as an investment..."💰
Image
Brazil:

"A 29-year-old woman contracted Covid-19 for the first time in March 2020 and was infected again in December, nine months later."

It has now been confirmed, the #reinfection was caused by the new '#Brazil/Amazon' variant (#P1).
oglobo.globo.com/sociedade/coro…
A week earlier,
authorities in Bahia (#Brazil) had already confirmed another case of #reinfection - but with the 'South Africa' variant...
The ´UK´ Variant #B117 (which ´only´ infects people more easily) is starting to be traced in multiple countries.
Here´s the data #Switzerland has found:

CH🇨🇭 seems to follow the path of UK,
📈with ~9 weeks delay.

(Denmark keeps the rise slower)
sciencetaskforce.ch/wp-content/upl… Image
Someone had the idea to install an air sampler in a car that was driven by a "mildly symptomatic" (#COVID19) person.

The drive took 15 minutes.
The sampler detected "viable virus" in airborne particles on the passenger´s side.

(enough to infect someone?)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
One expert panel in #Germany is now commissioned to analyze the effects of potentially infectious aerosols
-in public transport
-in crew vehicles (police patrol, etc.)

(Halting public transport is still discussed
Bavaria will make FFP2 masks mandatory.)
landtag-bw.de/home/aktuelles… Image
Oh look!
Even the ´UK´ variant #B117 can be mastered!

(with everbody staying home during X-Mas holidays, schools closed and #Tier4 restrictions...)📉

🔎"we need to keep an eye on the uptick during the last couple of days" - that´s when work had resumed📈
Image
Seems
that ´workplace as an infection source´ idea might be actually a thing...

UK: #SARSCoV2 infections at workplaces increasing,
after holidays are over and work has started.

(....🤨wait... that´s a no-brainer, isn´t it?)
Image
One workplace that´s particularly high on my personal
"I´m happy to do something else"
list:
2020: collapsing players due to bushfire smoke
2021: #COVID19
🤷
#AustralianOpen #Melbourne #VIC
Oh.
That´s another plane.
On the way to the #AustralianOpen.

One passenger, one crew member tested #COVID19
"negative" before departure

"positive" upon arrival.
🧬🛬🇦🇺
Ah?
Those flights to Melbourne.
They were special charter flights for #AustralianOpen players & entourage?

I´d have thought they´d have an especially strict #COVID19 protection concept, considering the vast amount of money depending on these matches...🤷
There´s one special protection measure for the #AustralianOpen tournament:
the players arrive 3 weeks before the event starts.

That´s (theoretically) enough time to spend a #Quarantine.
But: staying in room = no training.
Since March 2020, Vienna (#Austria) runs a wastewater #COVID19 surveillance.

This week, they suddenly found markers that were "different". They´re checking now if (and what type of) a #SARSCoV2 variant is circulating...
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
wien.orf.at/stories/308515…
#Vienna is running voluntary #COVID19 mass rapid (antigen) tests, this week.
Out of the "positive" test results, they picked
83 samples.
14 of them seem to be "some #Variant" (~17%).

They´ll go into sequencing, to see if it´s #B117, or whatever...
wien.orf.at/stories/308524…
#Vienna spokesperson brings up some points:
~"with today´s hints of that amount of #variants in Vienna, it might as well be that #B117 has been around for much longer than we thought"
~"if the #variants have been around for weeks/months, how do we interpret our #COVID19 curves?
Did the variants cause our (#Austria) peak in November?
Are our case numbers not going down because variants are here, now?
We simply can´t tell..."
#Portugal also thinks
the ´UK´ variant #B117 may have been introduced "before Christmas".
It´s arrival to Portugal might have happened "between September and December"...
One of the overrun hospitals in #Portugal (Torres Vedras, 2 nights ago).
There are 3 nursing homes affected by large outbreaks.
The hospital itself had to deal with 157 internal #COVID19 cases, already.

They managed to create 21 additional beds over night
Torres Vedras (#Portugal) has ~80.000 citizens.
1.013 of them are "active #COVID19 cases" right now.

(That´s one third of the 3.260 cases they ever had, during this pandemic).

1.671 are now in quarantine.
251 are waiting for test results.
cm-tvedras.pt/artigos/detalh… Image
(Well... #Portugal´s rise in hospital admissions is too tall for twitter - it´ll be cut off in the tweet.)

It suddenly happened on December 26, when everything was looking good,
just like "the wave" would soon be over...
coronavirus.rr.sapo.pt Image
There´s some weird artefact in #Portugal´s dashboard.

Yesterday, confirmed #COVID19 cases in the
age group of 10-19 year olds jumped
from ~48.000
to ~274.000

As if someone had decided to start testing all school kids...
(🤔Not sure what really happened)
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
This was (is?) #Portugal´s plan:

"In this #Lockdown we will keep #schools fully open.
We cannot sacrifice an entire generation of students.

Earlier we had seen: schools are safe places.
And we´ll introduce frequent mass rapid antigen testings..."
🙄
publico.pt/2021/01/13/pol…
Meanwhile in🇨🇭Switzerland´s Ticino:

A school noticed a #COVID19 infection in a student on January 7.
Then another one, and another...
School went on.

It was yesterday that they received lab results:
it´s ´UK´ variant #B117.
NOW the school is quarantined
www4.ti.ch/area-media/com… Image
´nough of schools - it´s sunday, finally !
😁Let´s flick on the sport websites and enjoy some...
😦ah, no.
No tennis.

(if I counted right, that´s the third plane, already)🙄
#COVID19 #Quarantine #AustralienOpen #Melbourne
A warning from #Denmark.

"it looks like the wave is receding.
And it really does. But there´s something hidden underneath that might surface soon..."

(Okay, official text in next tweet...)
🌊🦈🧬
ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/co… Image
#B117 is still rising in #Denmark

Week 49: 0.2%
50: 0.5%
51: 0.9%
52: 1.9%
53: 2.9%
01: ~3.6%
02: ~8%

"The numbers over all are constantly going down. But in fact, this effect is just the non-#B117 variants..."
"#B117 cases are growing as predicted."🔎📈
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
In normal times, Manaus (#Brazil) is self sufficient with oxygen (28.000 m3/day).
Now, with #COVID19, their hospitals need 75.000 m3/day.

"As support, we now start to send them 30.000 m3 per day..."

(🧮...😟)
A week ago, it was discovered that one UK tourist had started a chain of #B117 infections in #Wengen (#Switzerland).
Contact tracing soon found ~28+ infected contacts.

Testing was then offered to all inhabitants:
970 tested,
7 positive ("only", they say)
jungfrauzeitung.ch/artikel/187556/ Image
"Only 7" of 970 tested positive, in a week.
That´s a ~720 incidence rate.

"No, we´re not an extraordinary hotspot. If you´d look in other villages around, you´d find similar numbers..."
🙄
(this🇨🇭tourism director from #Wengen convinces me...
to stay away)
jungfrauzeitung.ch/artikel/187444/ Image
Shortly before the start of the winter holidays, some schools in #Ontario (Canada) started to see more and more #COVID19 cases among staff & students.

It was contemplated if schools should stay closed/online for a while...
toronto.ctvnews.ca/mobile/ontario…
Recent data from #Ontario:

17.6% of tested kids in age group "0-13 years" returned 'positive' results.
(15.1% in age group 14-17)

It's unclear why this happened (to become apparent) as soon as school holidays started.
As "1 in 5" children tested positive (during holidays),
#Ontario refrained from opening schools.
reuters.com/article/health…
All I can say is... 🤷
(and don´t ask me about current State of Emergency rules, there in Ontario - that´s even more confusing)
One more clarification:
it seems #Portugal´s dashboard sys-admin woke up to a shock this morning😱
and swiftly corrected the "220.000 children have become infected over night" artefact of yesterday.

Everything´s fine😑 it´s ´just´ ~2.000 over the weekend.
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
A follow up on the #B117 outbreak in Wengen (#Switzerland):

Yes, they found "only 7" in 970 local villagers had been infected.
In fact there had been many more. Most of them tourists, who had already returned home, before tests started...
After spending their holidays skiing with their family in Wengen (during the #B117 outbreak),
2 kids returned home a week ago and went to school.
(Bremgarten, Switzerland)

They brought #B117 with them
The entire school (and families) are quarantined, now
20min.ch/story/120-bern…
When #Switzerland´s authorities realized #B117 infections were spreading at tremendous speed in Wengen, they changed quarantine rules.

Secondary contacts should also quarantine.

This means:
Your entire family, if one kid in your kid´s class is infected.
telebasel.ch/2021/01/18/120… Image
Another school with (potential) #B117 contacts in Oberwil, #Switzerland.
Authorities wanted to test kids & families, today.

But some parents would "prefer not to be tested..."
🤷
20min.ch/story/primarsc…
Peculiar timing for this tweet.
But yes, let´s remember:

there´s always a person behind the mask
Behind the mask, there may be a smile.
Behind the smile, there may be today´s actual mood.

After all, it´s a job.
Sometimes it means:
disinfecting your guests´ luggage.

A job that might get done with a stern face, today.
At #Kempinski in #StMoritz 🇨🇭
kempinski.com/en/st-moritz/g… Image
There´s a #COVID19 cluster at 2 luxury hotels in #StMoritz, #Switzerland.

it´s said:
- it´s the ´South Africa" variant
- personnel is quarantined
- guests are allowed to leave after a "negative" test

(schools in town are closed now,
mass test tomorrow)
gr.ch/DE/Medien/Mitt… Image
The second luxury hotel in #StMoritz is said to have the strictest #COVID19 prevention measures.

So everyone is shocked it happened.

(But it´d also been said for a while: our usual measures might not be enough for the new virus variants, like #501V2)
badruttspalace.com/wp-content/upl… Image
What a rollercoaster ride.

#Ireland´s Level 5 #Lockdown came into force ~2.5 weeks ago, when cases were still lower than today.

It came too late to prevent the steep surge soon after.
And as short as it seems to have been - it had a profound effect...
covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com Image
After Ireland´s #COVID19 peak:

~"One in ten in the population is now either a case or a contact.
So we advise everyone:
-regard yourself as a contact
-stay at home."

Numbers are still too high to resume contact tracing...
~"There´s no point in hoping we´ll stop the ´UK´ variant from becoming dominant in #Ireland. But we can slow it down."

("3 cases of variants from Brazil and from South Africa had been identified, and they were confined without onward transmissions")
So the ´UK´ variant #B117 has made its way

from Ireland
via Marseille
and has now arrived in #Morocco...

(🚢in 80 days around the world🌍)
After analyzing samples, the #Czech Republic has announced:

"around 10% of our samples are the #B117 variant."

And they vividly describe the variant´s capability:
"It can do in 6 days, what the old variant would have taken 10 days to do".⏱️💨
eurozpravy.cz/domaci/zdravot…
Various variants in various places of #Germany:
🔸40+ cases of #B117 in a nursing home
🔸Returnees from South Africa trip infected a befriendet family with #501V2
🔸A (completely) new variant was found in a hospital outbreak in Bavaria (properties unknown)
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
From today, Germany´s new "Surveillance & Sequencing" ordinance will be active.

It simply guarantees the state will take over the costs of sequencing (for 5-10% of samples from positive #COVID19 cases)

(🤷didn´t find any further strategy in the text)
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/presse/pressem…
There´ll be a #Lockdown evaluation meeting of Germany´s state representatives, today.
Late at night, they discussed options with some experts.

And there was a plan-proposal on the tables.
A "#NoCovid" plan...
🔎
zeit.de/wissen/gesundh… Image
Key elements of #Germany´s 🇩🇪proposed #NoCovid plan:

- get some experts from Australia and New Zealand
- install a hard #Lockdown, until incidence rate is down to 10.
- then bring it to zero.
- enjoy d0nut days

And the prominent example is:
#Melbourne🇦🇺
zeit.de/wissen/gesundh… Image
Oh. Melbourne.
And tennis.
🙄
That´ll be Germany
and soccer,
then...
Is this it?
😟
The red area to the left.
"Norfriesland" district.

It had one of #Germany´s lowest #COVID19 incidence rates,
14 days ago: (37.4)

That rate is at ~162 today....
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
What happened in #Nordfriesland?

"We had #COVID19 before,

so on January 4 we thought we could control the situation as we always had done before.
After a few days we became aware - this time, it would not be possible...

several wards reported outbreaks"
nordfriesland.de/Quicknavigatio… Image
4 days ago, the situation in #Nordfriesland became tense:

due to #COVID19 outbreaks, both district hospitals signed off (no new admittances accepted)
🚑↩️📴
Healthcare personnel is under "work quarantine" now:
Those who are infected but asymptomatic, work
nordfriesland.de/Quicknavigatio… Image
In some places, infections have already been introduced into #Nordfriesland´s community.

Before it started, there were~380 in #quarantine.
This numbers is ~3.000, today.

~2.200 of them are hospital staff, visitors and patients.
nordfriesland.de/PDF/21_01_18_C… Image
There´s some ´irritation´:

Some #COVID19 infected elderly patients had been discharged from #Nordfriesland´s hospitals and brought back to their nursing homes.

Authority: "if they are not in need of medical assistance, they cannot stay in hospital"...
🙄
nordschleswiger.dk/de/tondern-sue… Image
There´s no explanation for what caused the abnormally rapid spread of #COVID19 cases in #Nordfriesland.

But just to the north of Nordfriesland lies #Syddanmark.
The region with the highest proportion of #B117 cases in Denmark...
week 1: 5.8%
last week: 9%
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
#Sweden does (some basic) sequencing, to follow the spread of new #SARSCoV2 variants.

They found #B117

Jan7: 17 cases, of which (5) without any link to UK
Jan12: 25 (8)
Jan19: 55 (16)
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-ber… Image
Germany's first fatal #COVID19 reinfection has now happened in #Baiersbronn?

That's also the town of Germany's first #B117 case...
(came with one of the last flights from #UK, December 20)
Just a little backstory on how #B117 came to #Baiersbronn,
on December 21:

(~A man managed to get his "positive" daughter out of isolation at Frankfurt airport. Then drove her home to Baiersbronn.

That´s a ~3 hour ride in their car...)
A story that came up in #Norway, yesterday:

On December 18, a man from Bjørnafjorden went to pick up visitors from UK at the airport.
The ride back home took ~40 minutes.
They were wearing masks.
😷🚗
Still, #B117 infection was transmitted in the car...
nrk.no/vestland/henta…
(Yes, I omit the intro.
Let´s concentrate on the girl)

A little girl in #Belgium got infected with #B117.
She infected ~her entire family.
And a classmate at school.
At home, that classmate infected her mother, who works as a teacher at another school...
ad.nl/buitenland/vla… Image
The little belgian girl´s #B117 infection caused a quarantine for 5.000 people:
-kids at 2 schools
-and all those kids´ contacts (families at home)

(Or it was caused by "authorities who decided", or "the girl´s mother who brought B117 from Switzerland"🙄)
netherlandsnewslive.com/one-woman-brea…
Tests at the second school in #Belgium (where the #B117 infected teacher was working) showed:
out of 1.700 tested
14 were #COVID19 "positive".

~Only 2 of them with #B117...
kontich.be/persbericht-co… Image
Tests at the belgian school where the 2 #B117 "index case girls" went to class for ~2.5 days showed:
another 2 girls had been infected with #B117.
And one outsider boy with ´classic´ #COVID19.

(BTW: the article lists plenty more outbreaks at schools...)
standaard.be/cnt/dmf2021011…
Update on #Germany´s first fatal #COVID19 reinfection:
the patient was 74 years old
had recovered from a first infection in April´20
got infected once more in December.

"There´ll be no sequencing, since he had no travel history"
So unknown, if #B117 etc🤷
tagesschau.de/investigativ/n…
#Portugal

Civil Protection of #Lisbon
requests immediate closure of all schools
military support
medical personnel from abroad
😦
The community of Mafra, #Portugal (~75.000 citizens)
says, they´d have 75 school classes in quarantine, at the moment.
Accounting for ~2.000 students
(educational staff not included)

"it´s disrupting our entire contact tracing system"
cm-mafra.pt/pages/1144?new… Image
#Portugal
"Since #school classes began on January 6,
the age group 13-17 has a higher #COVID19 incidence rate than older people and continues to rise exponentially,
as does 18-24."
publico.pt/2021/01/18/soc…
"The #COVID19 pandemic has gained momentum in #Portugal since Christmas, when restrictions on gatherings and movement were eased for four days."
4 days...
apnews.com/article/corona…
4 days...
of eased restrictions
a month ago
caused this?
#Portugal #COVID19
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
Since December 1, #Portugal has sequenced 27.096 samples from positive #COVID19 cases.

They found something:
in the beginning ~1%
now it´s ~13%

They say it´s #B117.
But could also be something else
(with the same "Spike gene dropout/SGTF")...
virological.org/t/tracking-sar… Image
"What we have ahead of us is probably the greatest tragedy of recent centuries,
if it is even possible to find in #Portugal's history anything similar to what is and will happen in terms of the number of deaths,"

(Advisor to Health Authority)
#Luxembourg
has offered medical help to #Portugal.

(proposal to take over some patients to care for them in Luxembourg, like they did for France)
"Not just the schools, we need to close everything!"

"Nobody understands what´s going on here. Maybe the UK-Variant (#B117) is already widespread..."

(Head of Infectiology, Central #Lisbon University Hospital Centre,
they´re treating 9 children, now)
#Portugal's football association opened their guesthouse, today.

It won't house national football teams - it will be used as field hospital for #COVID19 patients...
Yesterday,
after new data came in
about #COVID19 infections,
the rapid spread of #B117,
the dramatic situation at hospitals

Portugal´s President made up his mind.
jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/en/noticias/pr… Image
After being urged by municipalities, school directors, unions and Portugal´s President,

still somewhat reluctantly,
Portugal´s Prime Minister announced:

Schools will close from friday

However, he stressed
"schools are not the main focus of transmission"
sabado.pt/portugal/detal…
Still: no self testing.
And
a rapid (antigen) test will not be recognized everywhere.

#France announced:
All EU travellers will need a PCR test, before entering french territory.

(from sunday on)
(for non-EU citizens, there may be some quarantine added, I guess)
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
And then...

26 students from #UK
came to Chamonix (#France)

They presented a "negative" PCR test.
Shortly after, they had first symptoms
14 test results are in: 12 #COVID19 "positive", remaining results will follow.
British tabloid has detailed background on the #COVID19 cluster among UK "students" in Chamonix, and how they ended up in #France

Meanwhile, 16 of them have tested "positive".
Unclear if it is #B117.
But they think they "caught it on the train in France"
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
The UK🇬🇧 "students" had booked a "Ski-instructor qualification" course
in... Verbier🇨🇭
(Maybe like the one below...)

As we all know, Switzerland demands #quarantine from UK travellers.
Someone found the "loophole" to spend the "quarantine" in France🇫🇷...
peakleaders.com/2020/12/become… Image
The "ski-instructor students" arrived in the mountain village in #France "by road, air or train" on January 13 - 17.

Some of them had tried to enter the Eurostar train in London with their equipment.

Seems even the train manager thought it was too absurd
The ´Brazil/Amazonas´ variant #P1 has arrived in #Germany.

Article below mentions the passenger was asymptomatic and was detected "positive" when arriving at Frankfurt.

(German articles state he was known to be positive while still on the flight (?!))
dw.com/pt-br/alemanha…
It´s 2 months, since the outbreak at a #school in the #Netherlands (later identified as #B117).

Now, first ressults from mass tests are in:
out of 27.000 samples from local citizens
242 were #COVID19 "positive" (~0.9%)
´only´ ~29 of them carried #B117.

nos.nl/artikel/236547…
It seems, #B117 hadn´t spread much outside the Willibrord #School setting in the #Netherlands.

But at the school itself, it was found that
70 out of 684 testees carried the #B117 variant
(kids, staff and their families at home!).
ggdrotterdamrijnmond.nl/nieuws/lansing…
#Belgium
#COVID19

"~Something's brewing underneath.
The real numbers aren't as good as statistics might suggest.
We should be holding our breath..."

(some regions reversed their positive trend and started climbing again)
On January 7,
a case of #COVID19 was registered in Lisbon, #Portugal.

"~Unfortunately,
our retrospective sequencing now discovered: it was #501V2, the 'South Africa' variant.

We believe it was a single case"...
That person on the flight #Brazil-#Germany,
he had a positive PCR test.
For reasons unknown, he still made it onto the plane.

German authorities were warned and awaited him.
A specific test showed: the 'Brazil' variant.

All on board were quarantined...
Well,
the rules of the game are simple:

Wherever a #COVID19 (variant) case pops up,
all contacts
and their secondary contacts
go into quarantine.

If you feel comfortable with this,
Mr. "Open everything up",
go ahead.
Bring your country to a standstill.
rnd.de/politik/unions…
Mayor of Oslo (#Norway):

"Today is a heavy day in our city.
We´ve been trying so hard for so long already.

I have a great understanding for everyone who today feels that they are fed up."

The entire region will go into #Lockdown.
They found #B117
🧬
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad… Image
Yesterday, the #B117 variant was found in samples from 2 fatalities at a nursing home in Nordre Follo
(a municipality near #Oslo).
😕
The problem:
those samples had been taken ~3 weeks ago...
(January 3)
😯
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/e… Image
Further research showed:
-no known source of infection
-multiple contacts already infected
-suspected spread outside the facility to kindergarten

#Norway´s first #B117 community transmission had been active for more than 3 weeks, now!
⚠️Regional #Lockdown
nordrefollo.kommune.no/nyheter/2021/j… Image
"Nearby" communities start urging:

Everyone who has been to: #Oslo region in the last week:
-reduce contacts
-get tested - even if you feel no symptoms !

("nearby" in #Norway scale is ~300km)
#B117
nrk.no/nyheter/grimst…
#Denmark gives out a warning
(to whom it may concern...), that

📢"#Norway is introducing the strictest restrictions since March 2020, due to outbreaks of #B117 in Oslo region"
⚠️
#Sweden urges

"Norwegian authorities fear a major #outbreak of the new British virus variant in the #Oslo area.

🚨Everyone who has been to #Norway in the last 14 days:
-get tested immediately !
-self isolate for at least 7 days !
-follow up test also!"🚨
"#Søringkarantene"
was chosen Norway´s most popular new word in 2020.

I can see it in widespread use again, today...

(It means "Quarantine for the Southerners (~Oslo)". Some municipalities in #Norway´s North introduced it during the first #COVID19 wave).
nrk.no/sorlandet/nye-… Image
"#Oslo should be treated like a foreign country"
Tracking mobile phones, closing alcohol shops and venues, restricting access to hospitals...

Municipalities in the #Lockdown region´s vicinity prepare measures to deter Oslofolk from coming.
nrk.no/tromsogfinnmar…
🛑🚧#Sweden is about to install a complete entry ban from #Norway.🚧🛑

(Due to a #B117 variant outbreak in Norway´s Oslo region with unknown dimension, so far.)
Meanwhile in #Germany:

An outbreak of #B117 at a hospital in #Berlin has now expanded to 20 cases.
(14 patients, 6 staff)

It is likely the outbreak has already reached into the community,
as staff´s family members seem to display symptoms as well...
tagesspiegel.de/berlin/jetzt-2…
3 days ago, the same #Berlin hospital informed about some cases of #B117.
They had discovered them on Jan14, already:
-3 Patients
-no travel history (local transmission likely)
-no known source

"We brought this #Outbreak under control."
🙄
#B117& control?
berlin.de/aktuelles/berl… Image
The regional outbreak of #B117 seems to have entered #Oslo:

Earlier low infection numbers are gone.
Nursing homes see massive outbreaks
(150 infected, 40 new cases in the last 24 hours)

"This is different from the virus we had under control, before"
nrk.no/norge/flere-st…
Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) had warned that their house had seen

"several #COVID19 outbreaks in recent days",
seemingly more aggressive than previous outbreaks.

They also mentioned it might be that #B117 had entered the hospital...
klinikum-bayreuth.de/aktuell/news/a… Image
(🙅‍♂️Omit reading these details.
They´re too complicated,
don´t add to your understanding,
and may cause some useless infuriation

It´s basically: Health authority admitting there had been a #B117 case arlier, but "~the Bayreuth hospital story is fake news")
nordbayern.de/region/pegnitz…
As it turns out,
#Bayreuth hospital has very good reason to believe their suspiciously aggressive outbreaks might actually be #B117:

One #COVID19 patient they treated was a truck driver who had returned from #UK 🚛🇬🇧and fell ill...
(sequencing is pending)
br.de/nachrichten/ba… Image
Becoming #COVID19 "positive" after ⏰14 days in quarantine and 2 "negative" tests✅✅,
In a country that had virtually no sources of infection...
😕
-Variant not yet clear
#NewZealand

The #COVID19 case in #NewZealand had successfully passed quarantine✅
so she thought nothing special about her "light muscle pains", she developped 2 days after being released.

She visited 30 locations, before she became sceptical and got herself tested❌
nzherald.co.nz/nz/coronavirus…
News from #Faroe Islands.
It has something to do with "#B117".

The rest is up to your imagination.

yes, this is one language I don´t speak, so I threw it into an auto-translator.
I´m slightly confused about the last paragraph...🤔
news.fo/bretska-frabri… Image
#Norway´s Health Authority has found 17 cases of #B117, now (~250 more samples pending).

No cases were found outside the outbreak in Nordre Folle, so far.
"But it will come", according to FHI´s Director...
nrk.no/osloogviken/si…
😣here we go...:

21:02h "Suspicious outbreaks of infection in Oslo"

#Norway´s Health Directorate fears #SARSCoV2 variant outbreaks in #Oslo.
"Some outbreaks are suspicious, because there are many cases in a short period of time"
nrk.no/nyheter/__mist…
Due to the "unclear situation",
the #Lockdown area around #Norway´s #B117 outbreak will be expanded.

Further 15 communities will be "shut down".
They actively asked to be included, to avoid influx of possibly infected visitors/customers from the outbreak.
helsedirektoratet.no/tema/beredskap… Image
Another urgent measure was just announced by #Norway´s Health Minister.
It is supposed to solve the #polkø problem.

(Many people made fun of it.
But it seems to be a serious issue.
😔
No, they´re not queuing for a #COVID19 test...)
Vinmono(pol)et (kø=queue) polkø

"We´ll revise our decision and reopen the Vinmonopolet liquor stores in the #Lockdown area.
The sudden cut off from alcohol supply can expose people with severe alcohol dependence to health risks"
(Norway´s Health Minister)
direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/n…
😵#B1351
When I said there was no other source of infection, it was sooooo "last wave".

Those new variants have a new set of skills.

Like infecting people who are "perfectly isolated" from each other. Even to #NewZealand standards.
#QuarantineHotel
🪄🌬️
Seeing the transmission in New Zealand´s #Quarantine,
our "best we can do" approach seems vastly inappropriate:

#Berlin:
~1.500 "quarantined" staff from a hospital with confirmed #B117 outbreak commute home to their (not quarantined) families every day...
#Hamburg:
After 21 employees were tested #COVID19 "positive", an entire shift at Airbus
(500 employees, from 2 hangars,
with "potential contact in locker rooms, etc.")

goes into "voluntary quarantine at home"👨‍👩‍👧‍👦

(Variant not identified yet)
ndr.de/nachrichten/ha…
The #B117 outbreak in #Norway has grown to 25 detected infections, so far.

(but they're not finished with the 300 samples that might be related to this outbreak, yet...)

"Authorities think it started around Christmas".
nrk.no/osloogviken/on…
A nursing home in Southern #Germany found 23 residents & staff to be #COVID19 "positive".

Good news: all are well, no symptoms.😊
And for 4 of them it's already the second time...😲

(possible #reinfection,
first time was April~May 2020)
gea.de/reutlingen_art…
#Norway:
"At 16:20 I received the call that we have 40 new cases of the English variant of the coronavirus,"
says head of Nordre Follo municipality.

It´s 65 #B117 cases in that town, now.
They say it´s likely all positive tests there might be the variant.
nrk.no/osloogviken/ha… Image
This shows occupation of Tokyo´s #COVID19 Intensive Care Units from November 2020 (31%) to today (107%)

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/c… Image
As #Japan´s hospitals became overcrowded,
some had to turn away "non-citical" #COVID19 patients.

(Starting November 2020,
rapidly increasing this January...)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
"I was advised to be hospitalized but I refused,
to give priority to those who are more ill..."

This is how the impressive story of a single Tokyo mum and her fight against #COVID19 at home starts.

She was released from hospital, yesterday.
(her story):
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
Refusing to go to hospital.
Thinking ´the ambulance will surely be needed elsewhere´
Trying not to bother others...😔
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
Hanover, #Germany:

another #Reinfection,
after 6 weeks (!)

first time: #COVID19, November 27
second time: #B117, January 11

(~90 contacts at kindergartens, elementary school quarantined for "*at least* 14 days")
ndr.de/nachrichten/ni…
It should have been the "all clear",
after hospitals in #Nordfriesland had been closed for 10 days, due to large #COVID19 outbreaks...

But when the 1.200 staff were tested again, they found 21 new cases.
"We´re completely mystified"
😕
(no variant known)
nordfriesland.de/Kreis-Verwaltu… Image
In #Denmark🇩🇰, #B117 seems to be taking up an ever larger part of infections:

Week 49: 0.2%
50: 0.5%
51: 0.9%
52: 1.9%
53: 2.9%
01: 4%
02: 7.4% (219 cases)
03: ~12,1% (99 cases, not final)

Overall, #COVID19 case numbers in DK are still decreasing.
tvmidtvest.dk/midt-og-vestjy…
🇩🇰Denmark´s #B117 proportion,
with graphics
and a database-link:
Busy day in Nordre Follo, at the center of #Norway´s #B117 outbreak.

They´ve been able to connect the last 40 #B117 cases to:
the nursing home
a health center
a kindergarten
an elementary school

They still don´t know where it started.
Multiple imports?
nordrefollo.kommune.no/nyheter/2021/j…
#Norway´s health authority has sequenced 245 (old) #COVID19 cases´ samples around the Nordre Follo outbreak, so far.
(150 to go)
65 were the #B117 variant.
🧪🧬🧑‍🔬
What they can say:
"They have some connection to 6 other communities"...
aftenposten.no/norge/i/qAv7JE…
#Norway´s health authorities found the case of a nursing home employee in #Oslo.
He was the first in a #COVID19 outbreak at his Oslo workplace, Jan 6.
He had some contact to Nordre Follo,
so they sequenced the old samples...
all #B117.
nrk.no/osloogviken/ko…
#Switzerland´s National #COVID19 Science Task Force has a new situation report out.
Here´s one key finding:

#B117 was somewhere around ~10%,
last week.
sciencetaskforce.ch/nextstrain-phy… Image
"Currently, it looks like🇨🇭infections are going down.
But if absolute #B117 case numbers keep increasing,
case numbers will soon start to rise again,

even if we KEEP our current measures UNCHANGED.

At the moment🇨🇭#B117 cases are doubling every week‼️"
sciencetaskforce.ch/wissenschaftli… Image
Oh, this is so tempting...
I nearly fell for it.

Only a few dark red spots are left.
Many are below "100" (7 day incidence).
Some have already broken the "magical 50" barrier, when everything was promised to be fine again...
in earlier days, before #B117.
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
A week ago, when Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) became wary "we think some variant may be circulating- we have many outbreaks",
local authorities weren´t too convinced.

Then, the first 30 samples were sequenced:
11 are #B117.

2 Hospitals in #Lockdown,
now.
klinikum-bayreuth.de/aktuell/news/a… Image
And still, #Bayreuth authorities aren´t too worried.

There´s no idea, how the cases may have contracted #B117.
And:
"we´ll treat contacts of #B117 cases as we treat all contacts of #COVID19 cases.
There´ll be no quarantine for secondary contacts"...
🤷
bayreuther-tagblatt.de/nachrichten_me… Image
#Portugal
This evening,
the #Oxygen supply at Sintra hospital couldn't keep up with the high demand of 360 #COVID19 patients.
It didn't "collapse", but it seems the flow wasn't enough => some patients evacuated.
ICU is okay (takes relatively little O2).
As sequencing is incredibly slow, nobody can determine the current situation.
Today, the #Netherlands do know what it was 3 weeks ago:
#B117 had a share of 8.6%.

"And last week, we guess, it was every THIRD case"

And #B117 reproduced with a factor R~1,27
rivm.nl/nieuws/Britse-… Image
😴missing the bus...

There was a #COVID19 case, in a🇳🇱physiotherapy setting, on Jan6.

Later it turned out there had been some travel to South Africa.
3 weeks later, sequencing says:
18 cases are connected, they all were the #501V2 variant.
🚌💨 🏃
nos.nl/artikel/236609…
Seven more communities in #Norway fear current #COVID19 cases might be carrying #B117,
as they have links to Nordre Follo.

Outside current Lockdown area:
Fredrikstad
Modum
Øvre Eiker
Sigdal
Nesodden (maybe)

already in #Lockdown area:
Frogn
Våler

nettavisen.no/nyheter/innenr…
#Cluster5 is back.
(maybe)

The #SARSCoV2 variant that spread among minks, so millions of them were culled in Denmark.
And the entire region of North Jutland was closed down.

It was believed it had gone extinct

2 (old) cases have been found in Germany
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
They said they´d reopen elementary #schools on monday (because ~´children don´t transmit infections much´)

Only minutes before their press conference
news came in:
There´s a massive outbreak
(with some #SARSCoV2 variant)
at a kindergarten in Freiburg.

Announcement is postponed. Image
A shock for #France.
All their current measures,
even the 12 hour curfew, every day...

They don´t work anymore.

Is it because schools reopened (Jan4),
or everyone is working again,
or effect of new #SARSCoV2 variants?

They urgently try to find out, now.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
Yesterday, hospitals of #Paris region said they believe #B117 might have a share of 9.4%, there.
Today, a clear statement followed:

"It seems, the way we manage this right now, the current ascending plateau of infections will become an exponential curve."
franceinter.fr/societe/si-on-… Image
Authorities in The #Netherlands claim they have found the contacts of the ´South Africa´ variant #501V2 case at a physiotherapy centre.
(First symptoms January 6, but only now discovered)...

They all will get tested, now.
All 350 contacts.
🙄
rijnmond.nl/nieuws/203412/…
A large outbreak of #COVID19 stopped a construction site in Oslo (#Norway).

34 are infected, so far.
Some of the workers reside in Nordre Follo (the current #B117 hotspot)...
"Almost everyone (146 workers) involved in the project is in quarantine".🚧👷‍♂️🏗️
aftenposten.no/oslo/i/mBLWmq/…
A school in Schaffhausen (#Switzerland) has closed.
There´s a #COVID19 (some variant) case.

"This closure is not a quarantine...
it´s just to reassure the parents and the worried teachers and students."

😏ookayyy... whatever you´d like to name it.
stadt-schaffhausen.ch/News.316.0.htm… Image
Seems, the kindergarten in Freiburg (#Germany) realized first #COVID19 cases 2 weeks ago.🙄

That didn´t stop the state´s idea of opening up more...
it was just today´s result "it´s caused by some #SARSCoV2 variant" that blew it all up
😕
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
2 days ago,
#Portugal mentioned:
"We still have beds available. The real problem is personnel."

Over 22.000 nurses and doctors have been infected, so far.
More than 10.000 are not able to work, at the moment.

Transferring patients might be an option...
publico.pt/2021/01/25/soc…
Yesterday, the community of Torres Vedras asked Portugal´s foreign minister for urgent help.
As there are 8 large clusters in the city, the hospital is overrun.

The mayor was now pleading for 5 doctors and 10 nurses from abroad. They would pay for them...
Today, the Mayor of Torres Vedras received answers from doctors from Brazil, Angola, Venezuela...

He was still waiting for a reaction from #Portugal´s foreign minister.

And they just had another nursing home outbreak this afternoon.
tsf.pt/portugal/socie…
Also wednesday, a small group of medics from #Germany did some reconnaissance at #Sintra hospital.
(The one that had too many patients for their oxygen supply).
It was an "informal" mission

But german embassy just confirmed:
there´s talks with #Portugal.
publico.pt/2021/01/27/soc…
Unreal ´déjà vu´
for #NewZealand, yesterday:

ONCE AGAIN, reports came in
that someone had been released from a quarantine hotel,
after 2 weeks
and 2 "negative" tests...

and then turned out to be "positive".

But maybe they were "false positive"?
Image
No.😯
After more tests, it became clear:

Those weren´t "residual artefacts of earlier infections"...
the 2 persons who had just been cleared & released from #NewZealand´s #quarantine were carrying a FRESH infection

with the ´South Africa´ variant.
#501V2
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
After #NewZealand´s first "post-quarantine infection"
people´s trust had already degraded.

🤨🤚🛑
stuff.co.nz/national/healt… Image
The #NewZealand #Quarantine hotel that turned out to actually spread #501V2 infections is now closed for new entries.

And those who already left
are now asked to isolate themselves...

wherever they may be
(some have travelled abroad).
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
The fate of a not so successfull #SARSCoV2 variant:

Denmark kept monitoring the "Mink" mutated variant.
After the large outbreak in late summer, it faded away.
In week 1/2021 they sequenced 18% of all #COVID19 cases.
The mink variant had disappeared.
🦖☄️
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
After a kindergarten in Freiburg,
#Germany´s southwest state has now found #B117 in a 85 year old senior in #Stuttgart.

He should have been safe and sound in his nursing home, with no travel contacts.

"It seems #B117 is already circulating, here..."
This thread started one year ago.

And I still use this collection of what we did in 2009.
I´d say: we´ve changed a lot since then...
our plan isn´t any better,
but we´re a lot crazier, more confused, now.🙄
I thought about cutting off this thread
and start new topic related sub-threats instead.
Just to arrange stuff more neatly

But where should I file this next one?
Authorities say
"the situation is so incredibly complex",
they just fenced a whole area in.
🤦Okay, thread goes on...
-foreign workers
-large construction site
-living in tight conditions
-one came from UK
-quarantine breaker
-one critically ill now
-youth center on same site
-massive variant outbreak
-´risk of fleeing quarantinees´
-FENCE
-South #Germany, Schelklingen
schwaebische.de/landkreis/alb-…
~"We knew the #SARSCoV2 variants were imminent.
But we hoped we had more time (to have schools open for a while)
At the #Freiburg kindergarten, 18 cases are now confirmed as ´South Africa´ variant

Sequencing shows: 2-3% of all cases are a variant already"
#BadenWürttemberg
"The idea to gradually reopen schools has become obsolete.

We will make an effort to try sequencing EVERY single positive #COVID19 case, to see how far the variant has spread.

Schools will stay open for children of essential workers."
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Norway´s #B117 hotspot Nordre Follo kept schools open for children of essential workers.

Yesterday it started: 4
this morning 7
this afternoon 15
#COVID19 cases at a primary school.

"We believe it´s #B117"
Hundreds of essential workers quarantined, now.
oavis.no/korona-koronav…
A new "real time" analysis (s-gap detection) enables #Portugal to get a better picture of the spread of ´UK´ variant #B117:

In & around #Lisbon, it has a share of 50%, already.
(In oher places ´just´ 30%...)
publico.pt/2021/01/28/cie…
And finally today,
#Portugal authorizes recruiting nurses and doctors from abroad.

They will be needed to help in the massive #COVID19 waves.
(Standard contract length may be up to 1 year).
lusa.pt/article/Xa7hVv…
#Ireland´s latest NPHET meeting brings an insight into
how #B117 reacts.

And what measures will be needed
for how long
to keep it from getting out of hand...
twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
According to NPHET
"#Ireland´s population has worked incredibly hard
to bring down transmissions".

Not only that-
as it has so little chance to transmit, they´ve also slowed progress of #B117.
It stands at 63%, now.

It will become dominant, eventually.
But it will happen slower Image
#Ireland has this nifty key indicator of
"how many contacts did a #COVID19 case have".

What not to do: open things up, so people have ~4-5 contacts again (December, that provoked the outbreak)

What works to slow down #B117:
reduce contacts to ~2 Image
With the CURRENT measures, #Ireland manages an R of ~0.4-0.7

"If we can keep this up
- cases will continue to drop (slowly)
- hospitals will see less strain (in the long term)
- by the end of February we could be where we were at the beginning of December"

"IF WE KEEP THIS UP" Image
"We are maintaining an extraordinary effort...
we need to maintain full pressure for several more weeks,

to give ourselves strategic options for the future"

(🤔Open up = give it out of hands?)

Link to entire NPHET latest slide-set:
assets.gov.ie/121280/f9981ed… Image
"Full pressure for several more weeks"
means for #Ireland:
#LEVEL5 restrictions will be in place
until March (for now).
gov.ie/en/publication… Image
It had been eerily quiet
around the #COVID19 variant outbreak among construction workers in south #Germany...

must have been, because everyone was just too busy testing all the contacts.

Over 1.000, so far.
😕
And multiple other clusters, now...
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
I'd rather have a system, where
a "negative" #COVID19 test would be valid as a one-day-travel pass on public transport,

and a "positive" test would earn you 14 days free delivery of your favorite food to your home address...
🚧🚧🚧🚧🚧🛂🚧🚧🚧🚧🚧
A swiss journalist reports on Native American #Winnebago tribe.

Their culture is defined by the elders.
Only 100 elders still speak their traditional language.

#COVID19 is a real threat.
In #Portugal, one #COVID19 indicator is the number of ambulances queuing at hospitals.
The largest line has now decreased from 46 to 6 ambulances waiting.
🚑🚑🚑
But that's due to a new pre-screening, turning people away who are not eligible for treatment
lusa.pt/article/WJEpRc…
Despite the recent outbreaks of #B117, #Norway´s overall #COVID19 test positivity rate has declined to as low as 0.8%
fhi.no/sv/smittsomme-… Image
It is still not clear, what effect #B117 infections will have, if they become dominant, and there´s no clear picture, where they have already spread...
but #Norway intends to ease restrictions in the Lockdown area around Nordre Follo, soon.
nrk.no/norge/regjerin… Image
Norway´s Education Minister:
"Being able to attend kindergarten and school is important both for play, learning and for countering loneliness and isolation,"
so communities in #B117 Lockdown may decide whether they return to full presence school classes
🙄
Norway´s Minister of Children and Family Affairs:
"I am glad that we can make everyday life (in the #B117 Lockdown area) a little easier.
For people under the age of 20, we open football training, handball or choir practice again."

(🤔 choir practice?...)
regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/vid…
In Norway´s view
"The main problem is import of cases", so #Norway has locked their borders.

One last loophole is closed, now:
"As falsified attestations of earlier #COVID19 infections might be presented at the border, this will no longer be accepted as an entry waiver" Image
2 days ago, #Norway´s Health Directorate issued a warning #B117 outlook:

"particularly relevant considering #Oslo´s situation right now where we see declining infection rates:
⚠️
Cases may seem to go down.
But it may become challenging 2 weeks later"
...
helsedirektoratet.no/tema/beredskap… Image
"Villsmitte"
("wild infections" - nobody knows where they came from)

#Oslo has 3 of them
(they are all #B117 variants)
😕

(p.s.: one of my favorite 🇳🇴words is still: Nettbrett)
nrk.no/nyheter/tre-ti…
(according to news)
The #Netherlands´ Outbreak Management Team OMT advises the dutch government to reopen primary schools and childcare.
🥳/😣
The OMT seems to be split up - some members were against this advise.
"This poses a real risk"
nos.nl/artikel/236661…
Last night,
#Portugal´s airforce performed a #COVID19 medevac flight.

They transferred 3 critical ICU patients.
They were brought FROM the capital region #Lisbon TO the island of #Madeira.

Beds on the mainland are full.
dn.pt/sociedade/doen…
#Portugal´s INSA is very busy, so they just retweet articles of interviews they gave:

"at the moment #B117 has a share of ~35-40%.
That might be 65% in ~3 weeks"

"It has a weekly growth rate of ~90%"
(its share doubles nearly every week)
Some good news from #Portugal:
the hospital of Amadora (where O2 pressure wasn´t enough to support all ~360 #COVID19 patients, last tuesday)
has a backup oxygen tank, now.

Sintra hospital will also get one.
facebook.com/hospitalfernan… Image
#Japan´s military is responding to an Okinawa island, where more than 100 #COVID19 infections happened in 4 days, affecting many nursing home residents.

They will get instructions from "veterans" who were also deployed to the Diamond Princess🛳️in 2020.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
#Berlin´s hospital says they
"have the #B117 outbreak under control".
After one week and 30 cases, the infection chain has been identified and stopped.
"Work quarantine" for medical staff will continue (if they had potential contact)...
rbb24.de/panorama/thema…
Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) has ~23 cases of #B117.
While they had no overview of the ´diffuse infections´, they started to ease "working quarantine" rules "pragmatically":

-use of public transport ✅😷(FFP2 mask)
-staff´s children back to kindergarten✅
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
#Bayreuth citizens aren´t too convinced the "working quarantine" is safe enough for #B117.

Hospital personnel is refused at petrol stations, their children isolated at kindergarten, neighbors are worried when bumping into them at home...

fear?🤷caution?
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
One case,
the first after
10 months

West #Australia
Twitter is buzzing with tweets like this,
right now
🧬💥💪😤
😷✅
"The guard was working on the same floor as a positive ´UK´variant case"

His household contacts have tested ´negative´.
However, we can expect that they will become positive"

"Dramatic. Action. Immediately.
That´s the (Brisbane) model we´re following..."
🚧🤚🚧
Dramatic. Reaction. Immediately.
Brisbane / Queensland know their stuff...
#WesternAustralia #COVID19
Meanwhile in #Germany... Image
Apparently,
a german minister noted that with the new virus variants the old "incidence 50" limit might not be enough.
Maybe the #Lockdown would have to be extended beyond February...
(#ZeroCovid is not an official policy,
actually, there´s no target set)
zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
With a german standard of "incidence 50"
(50 cases / 100.000 inhabitants per week)
there would be
tracing for ~900 such cases,
now,
in Perth
Antwerp´s University Hospital (#Belgium) has a mobile test team.
They ride around in their "coBUSters" bus, visiting schools and taking kids´ PCR tests.

They´ve been doing screenings and interventions in #COVID19 outbreaks,
for a couple of weeks, now...
uza.be/mobiel-testteam Image
First results of #Belgium´s mobile testing at schools:

~"We find #COVID19 infections mainly in the 5-12 year olds. They don´t show much symptoms.

But when we traced their contacts, we found:
they infect their families.
#Schools are infection sources."
🤔
gva.be/cnt/dmf2021012…
🤦
The easing of Norway´s #B117 Lockdown might be obsolete.

4 communities around Nordre Follo now have outbreaks.
Infections seem to have spread from an ice rink hall.
There are already 11 cases, with secondary contacts infected.

400 are quarantined, now
nrk.no/osloogviken/mu…
It doesn´t need a fancy #B117 variant...
It seems some outbreaks in #Norway´s Nordre Follo were caused by the "traditional" #SARSCoV2 virus.

One primary school (Tårnåsen school) has 34 cases:
19 students
11 close contacts
4 staff
(all the "old" variant)
nordrefollo.kommune.no/informasjon-om… Image
#Portugal´s intensive care units treat 858 patients, today.
That´s the highest number ever.

The registered number of #COVID19 cases is now 16 times higher than it had been during the first wave, in March/April last year...
ionline.sapo.pt/artigo/723028/…
"This variant spares no-one"

The childrens´ infectiology unit in Lisbon has #COVID19 patients of age 12 days to 17 years.
And "it´s not just precautionary", as it was in the first wave.

They carry very high viral loads (Ct ~9-10)!
😯
publico.pt/2021/01/30/cie…
#Austria has proposed to take some patients from #Portugal for treatment.
Image
Seems the "informal reconaissance" a few days ago has now turned into an official support mission:
Military medics from #Germany will be on their way to #Portugal, next week.
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
"Good news" for children, parents and teachers🙄
in the #Netherlands:

Elementary schools and kindergartens will open again on February 8.

There will be tests for teachers.
And if one kid gets #COVID19, the whole class will be quarantined for 5 days.
nos.nl/artikel/236680…
(Part of) the #Netherlands´ idea is:
-opening primary #schools and kindergartens will bring "disadvantages" (= infections will rise)

-this could be compensated, if all other measures (including the ´not so popular´ curfew) would stay in force

(hmmmn,🤨interesting experiment...) Image
And then, "inside sources" in the #Netherlands claim

"If case numbers keep on falling,
the (´not so popular´) curfew might be lifted on February 10."

That´s 2 days after schools reopened.

(🙄I´d like to have independent observers for this experiment...)
nos.nl/artikel/236683…
Reasoning for the call to ease more restrictions seems to be: "Case numbers in the #Netherlands are as low as October 1!"

(well,...
they´re also ~as low/high as they were on December 1😐,
the day the current wave set in...🙄)
nos.nl/artikel/236675… Image
Meanwhile in #Australia:
No new cases in #Perth over night.

But this is expected to change:
the "index case" (guardian at quarantine hotel) has just been confirmed to carry #B117.
And ~60 close contacts are identified...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
A maskless man stood outside a supermarket in Western #Australia´s #Lockdown area. He was offered a free mask from police.

He refused it.

📰"The man has been arrested, charged and denied bail after refusing to wear a protective face mask."🧑‍⚖️
7news.com.au/news/wa/wa-cov…
In a press conference,
#Oslo´s Health Councillor just announced:

"Oslo has control over #B117."

Nearly all 61 cases have been traced and connected.
Only for 6 cases, tracing has not been completed, yet.
nrk.no/osloogviken/os…
"#Oslo can´t continue the strict measures we had last week just for precaution. The challenge will be to keep infection numbers down while gradually & controlled reopening our city.
Infection numbers and knowledge of #B117 determine how fast it will go"
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad…
Frome tomorrow on,

#Oslo will have less distancing & cohorting at schools.
(Individual) sports will open for young children, again.
School swimming will resume.
etc.
(Autotranslated)
Image
Meanwhile in Halden (#Norway), near Oslo:
An outbreak at the local ice hall happened during "sports activities / ice hockey for the children".

65 are infected, one is already known as being a #B117 case.

"We should never have done it" (the kids´ sports)
nrk.no/norge/nakstad_…
Sarpsborg (#Norway) also has some suspected #B117 cases, who were at the "Comet"´s ice hockey training in the Halden ice hall.

They also have 15 further local #B117 cases/suspects.
Seems they´re cautious, but not too worried
as they "have a good overview"
sarpsborg.com/aktuelt/-har-g… Image
"We followed the guidelines that apply to children and amateur sports"
(Ice Hockey Club Halden, Norway)

"~They did their best.
No one was able to predict how contagious this virus really is...."
(Mayor of Halden)
#Norway #B117
nrk.no/osloogviken/sm…
(Most of) #Portugal may have already passed the peak of infections.

It´s the area around Lisbon, with its infections ´at brutally high levels´, that keeps the country´s average from falling.

(The yellow curve is #Lisbon. It is dipping every monday)
publico.pt/2021/02/01/soc… Image
Interestingly

"5 days after #Portugal´s schools were closed, the incidence in age groups 6-12 & 13-17 years began to fall at national level.

The closure of schools was decisive..."
Image
#Norway´s Health Minister:

"If we had a #ZeroCovid policy, we would have had to live in a regime that none of us had tolerated.

It is very difficult to find a balance.
And we may not yet have the full answer when it comes to the new virus variant,..."
nrk.no/norge/hoie_-_-…
For #Norway´s Halden community
it´s not difficult to find an answer to their #B117 ice hockey outbreak:

19 school classes (together with staff and families) are quarantined.
So schools will close alltogether.
halden.kommune.no/aktuelt/rodt-n… Image
A rare view into the traces of #COVID19 in #France´s sewage water:

Paris↘️
Lille⬇️
Marseille↗️
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
"There may be a trend, but we are at a very high level - far above March´s ´deconfinement´ levels.
It´s more like the levels we had back in September"
ImageImageImage
They know it.
They know what is going to happen.

So why do the #Netherlands open primary schools and "think about" further schools?
Why do they promise to "eliminate the curfew, if case numbers keep falling"?
🙄
Is it to say
"We tried - and it sadly didn´t work"?
Is it a show?
The #Netherlands know: before X-mas, teenagers got infected by other teens and "sometimes" infected their families. That went down a lot, with the holidays/lockdown.

After the festive period is over, it´s the adults, who get infected at work, now...
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
The #Netherlands found,
primary school students, infected with #B117,
might be much more likely to spread infections to their families
and they seem to spread it faster, than with the old variant.
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
And there´s this one line of text,
in that recent report to the #Netherlands´ House of Representatives.

It just says:
"We think, last week ~HALF OF ALL NEW infections in NL were the ´UK´ variant #B117."

It GREW at a reproduction rate of R~"1.27"
😯
rijksoverheid.nl/binaries/rijks… Image
What´s the issue ?
#COVID19 numbers in the #Netherlands peaked on December 20, with ~13.000 new cases, that day.
Yesterday, it was a mere 3.300 new cases - that´s certainly not rising, is it ?????
coronadashboard.rijksoverheid.nl/landelijk/posi… Image
Here´s the issue.

-in week 2, 19.8% of new cases in the #Netherlands had been #B117
-In week 4, ~50% of new cases were the #B117 variant. It grows with R~1.27
-while the ´old´ variant descends deceptively

🤔If that curve stops falling ~this week...🤨
😣oh.
#RIVM (#Netherlands´ disease center)
just released their official guesstimate:

"Last week, #B117 made up ~2 thirds (66%) of new cases in NL"

Falling case numbers are a result of
less people getting tested.
Positivity rate already stagnates.😳
🧬🏁
rivm.nl/nieuws/nieuwe-… Image
Press conference in the #Netherlands:
⚠
"The third wave is inevitably upon us."

"If there was no #B117, more easing would be possible.
But the 'UK' variant is spreading at tremendous speed"

"With an R-value of almost 1.3, it doubles nearly every week"
The "doubling every week" isn't really what official #RIVM numbers suggested.
But anyway:
#Netherlands' primary schools will open, next week.
Because: "adults get infected by adults - and mostly not by children"...
😕
Woooow - a gamechanger !!!

#COVID19 selftests will be made legal in #Germany, from tomorrow!
(okay, there are no certified devices for now)

That'd change my risk assessments for a lot of large-scale projects from "utterly stupid idea" to "doable"!
Right now,
a team of 26 military medics (6 doctors) from #Germany is on its way to #Portugal.

They also bring equipment (~40 ventilators, 150 perfusors etc) and will support a Lisbon hospital.

It's a long-term engagement:
Replacement comes after 3 weeks.
It's a long-term challenge for #Portugal...
Daily case numbers are about to peak - but the patients' influx to hospitals doesn't seem to stop.

Again, 3 intensive care patients will be transferred to #Madeira, tonight.

"ICUs on the continent are full".
The Amadora-Sintra hospital near Lisbon has asked CODU coordination center to stop sending them respiratory patients.

After a calm phase, suddenly a wave of new #COVID19 patients comes in.
They are overwhelmed at the moment...
(other treatment continues)
#Portugal´s #COVID19 pressure on hospitals is especially high in the #Lisbon region, now.

To immediately relieve pressure from Amadora-Sintra hospital, 20 (stabilized) patients are transferred to hospitals in #Porto, in the North.
tvi24.iol.pt/sociedade/sao-…
😯
Until now, it was officially no big deal in #Germany, if contacts of #COVID19 cases kept on working
-as long as they followed basic hygiene
-their job was essential for the state (critical infrastructure)

Now:"DO NOT apply to contacts of Variant cases"
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
For Healthcare Workers, #Germany´s new RKI rule would mean:
if they were contacts of a suspected #SARSCoV2 variant case, the former practise of putting them in "work quarantine" would now have to be ended.

good plan🤔...or, maybe...
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Bayreuth hospital (#Bavaria) has first results of their mass screening:
Yes, their outbreak is actually caused by #B117.
(9 cases sequenced as such, more expected.)

Since they have no clue where it came from, they had all 3.300 staff in "work quarantine".
klinikum-bayreuth.de/aktuell/news/a… Image
According to #Germany´s new RKI rules, all 3.300 staff at Bayreuth´s hospital would have to be quarantined, with NO work - however important it might be...

🤨who in the world would ever really do this? China?

oh.
wait....
😧
The video won´t play.
But that still picture tells the story.
#Australia #VIC #Melbourne #COVID19
here we go again...
facebook.com/7NEWSMelbourne… Image
#Melbourne
"Earlier in the day, there was confirmed transmission of the ´UK´ variant #B117 between hotel quarantine guests."

“We Victorians know what to do, and we have proven, as state, very successful at managing these sorts of #outbreak.”
🧬🤛😷
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
#Victoria´s Premier:

“This is one case. There’s no need for people to panic. There’s no need for people to be alarmed."

And, sorry: no return to work 🤷
#Melbourne #Outbreak #B117
The ´working assumption´ is that

"the viral load of the family was so high, the virus had travelled through the hotel just by the family opening the door..."

😱🌬️🚪
abc.net.au/news/2021-02-0…
#Melbourne #Outbreak #B117
The working theory is:

"The man caught the virus while working in hotel quarantine,😷✔
despite not breaching virus control protocols."
😯
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
While the #Melbourne outbreak has the entire state of Victoria stuck at "max. 50% should be back to the workplace",

other "business" goes on as usual.
(admittedly, it´d be ridiculous to have only 50% of workers, there)
Quite some contrast in reactions from other states to Melbourne´s #COVID19 outbreak:

NSW does it retro-style:
-temperature screening 🌡️
-and questionnaire 📃
🙄🤣
(like in those times before we had rapid tests...)
Queensland doesn´t bother rapid tests either.
They stick to their
"Dramatic. Action. Immediately."
approach:

Anyone who had been to #Melbourne is asked to have a (PCR) test and isolate until results are in.
The problem with "Dramatic. Action. Immediately." is:

You get zero results.
Nothing happens.

And you can´t prove it´s because of your actions.
🤷 #Perth
#Perth will open up.
Gradually, for the most.

but
"The South-West will return to pre-lockdown conditions immediately, tomorrow"

😢(sigh... I'm stuck in the South-West, but wrong country)
#Sweden can decide:
Keep restrictions - numbers will continue to go down.

Ease a little - numbers will stay at a high level.

Have more contacts again - a 3rd wave, stronger than before. "And it could start relatively soon, maybe in a few weeks or so."
svt.se/nyheter/inrike…
#Sweden´s calculations assume
-a variant similar to #B117,
-it was introduced in November
-it started with 150 cases, back then

Scenario 0:
Restrictions stay the same.

Restrictions would suppress even the variant - it would show "no effect".
Everything will be fine, soon... Image
#Sweden´s scenario 1:
Restrictions ease a little,
so contacts go back to the level of "cautiousness" they had before Christmas.

The variant rises slowly.
And the "old COVID" will fall slower.
Overall #COVID19 cases will not go down further.

A long, stressfull time for hospitals Image
#Sweden´s scenario 2:
Contacts rise to a "not so careful" level again.

The new variant rises faster (green)
And the "Old variant" goes up again, too (blue)
Another wave of #COVID19 infections. Image
#Sweden´s models do not take vaccinations into account.

"The model calculations go over the next 3 months.
Vaccinations are not expected to have any observable effect in this period".

Here´s the link to their entire presentation:
folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/…
P.S.:
The model calculations above are optimistic.
They are for a "new variant" that has an increased transmission rate of just +30%.

Here´s #Sweden´s scenario 1 ("we want a bit more freedom and we promise we´ll be careful") again.
With a transmission rate of +50%
(like ~#B117): Image
#Denmark has also been doing some calculations, today.
They estimate,
their current measures result in good suppression of "traditional" #COVID19 variants.

But the "Contact-number" (Reproduction number R) for #B117 in Denmark is currently R~1.14
It grows.
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Austria's #Tyrol has a problem.

No one really knows how it got there.
(although there's gossip)

It's a large cluster of #B1351, the 'South Africa' variant.
The biggest problem seems to be: their denial to accept this is a real issue, beyond local clique.
kurier.at/amp/chronik/oe…
A local virologist had tried to raise the alarm about #Tyrol's suspiciously emerging #B1351 cluster...
That was met with repulse from authorities.

So she took to the press.

Authorities settled down to "observe developments"😴

Swiss press is worried...
“J'ai l'impression que le Tyrol a évidemment conscience que la situation est grave"

Belgian press reports on #Austria's Health Minister's view that isolating the region wouldn't be necessary, as "they're aware of the situation".

I doubt Austria is aware.
Meanwhile,
Singapore's "Straits Times" is reporting on #Austria's inactivity regarding their Tyrolean #B1351 cluster...

Austria still doesn't seem to realize: the world is watching !
😳
Pakistan ?!

Okay.
Maybe not so relevant for local politicians in #Tyrol...

But they'd be really in the soup if press in neighboring Germany jumps on the story...
😖d'oh...

Germany's press had already reported that #Austria was "considering to isolate the #Tyrol cluster region".

But now,
Austria's decision to merely "observe the situation" is starting to make its way into german headlines as "Ischgl 2.0" approach
rosenheim24.de/welt/news/tiro…
#Tyrol's special issue with Germany would be:

A new german ordinance on "Areas of Variant of Concern".

It prohibits transport of passengers from such areas to Germany / requires test and 10 day quarantine...

Even for daily commuters.

🚧🛂🚧✋🚧🚷🚧
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen…
There are several experts in Austria, arguing against isolation of #Tyrol:
One says
"Tyrol´s not an island - you cannot isolate the spread" 🤦

Another one says "#B1351 is certainly prevalent in other areas as well. Just look at Cologne (#Germany)"👍
tirol.orf.at/stories/308854…
While Austria´s Tyrol has been sequencing for a while,
#Germany is just about to get things going.

While sequencing retrospect samples of #Cologne they found a surprise:

52 cases of ´South Africa´ variant #B1351
114 cases of ´UK´ variant #B117
ksta.de/nrw/inzidenz-s…
Uh...
#Germany's RKI has just tried to give an overview of "#Variants of Concern".

It came out as a pile of unconsolidated, inconsistent and utterly confusing data (at least it reads like that to me...)
😣
The "timeline" in RKI's #Variant report isn't telling much.
The report says sample selection was heavily biased.

Other parts of the report say "data wasn't submitted in time", and evaluation methods were changed during the report period...
😕 Image
A (semi) useful map in the RKI #Variant report shows
how many cases of #B117 had been detected by labs, last week (up to Jan29).
It misses data ("not reported in time"),
but shows 2 hotspots:
-Flensburg (North, result of a big new year's eve party in Denmark)
-Hof (Czech border) Image
I have real doubt,
RKI´s #Variant report can be put to use at the moment.

A lot of data simply doesn´t match or is maybe outdated.
This is what #RKI says about #B117 cases
in the ENTIRE STATE of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW):

22 cases
from November 2020 until January 31/2021. Image
This is what one City alone (Cologne) reported for February 3:

137 cases of #B117.

(while RKI´s report says,
the entire state had 22 cases, 3 days earlier)
🤨
maybe let´s not use that RKI report to evaluate the current situation, okay?

stadt-koeln.de/politik-und-ve…
(via @NihalDemir) Image
Someone in the #Netherlands had an idea:

😏What if we divide #school classes into ´subgroups´?
And then make these subgroups sit 1.5m apart...
So if one kid is infected, we only need this one subgroup to quarantine...!!😁

🙄#SARSCoV2 is a bowling ball🎳?
nos.nl/artikel/236739…
We need standards on dealing with #Variants
In Ludwigshafen (#Germany), one #B117 case popped up.
The "residence" of that case was immediately put under lockdown,
leading to "mental meltdown" of one of the inhabitants.

They all had been infected before...
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
Due to 1 "#Variant" case, #Ludwigshafen´s Mayor now asked for permission to install a movement restriction for all of the city´s ~170.000 inhabitants.

Allowed radius: 15 km.

(🙄me, thinking about #Tyrol...)
ludwigshafen.de/buergernah/bue… Image
I stumbled upon news, that Košice (#Slovakia) has an extraordinary high rate of #B117 cases.
Not much more info, except that schools would be kept closed.

I looked for more info on local websites...

😯Košice´s mayor urges everyone to stay indoors.
kosice.sk/clanok/situaci…
2 weeks ago, 60% of #COVID19 cases in Košice hospital were #B117 cases. Today, it´s ~90%

"This explains, why it hits even the young so hard"

Their data:
+70% more infectious
+36% more fatal
age group of severe patients decreases constantly

at the moment
kosice.korzar.sme.sk/c/22590008/bri…
"The situation has never been so serious"
A 5th round of mass testing is organized, in #Košice.

The local steel works have installed a livecam, so everyone can see the waiting queue for their site´s test facility...
Image
Oh.
Someone in Tyrol (#Austria) thinks "Movement restrictions -like the ones they use in #Germany" - would maybe be helpful to bring #SARSCov2 variants under control, there...
Interestingly,
Ludwigshafen (#Germany) has just cancelled their 15km Movement restriction order.

"According to first test results, the one #SARSCoV2 variant case seems to have not spread further"
Cologne (#Germany) realizes: there might be trouble ahead...

237 new #COVID19 cases over night
(incidence rose from 75.9 to 91.3)
Reproduction factor is now R(t)~0.97

22 newly confirmed #B117 carriers, 3 with #B1351

(and it´s traditionally🥳time, soon)
stadt-koeln.de/politik-und-ve…
Carnival isn´t the only fear of #Cologne (that´s why they implimented a "max. 1 visitor at home" rule, now.

They´re clearly afraid of #Variant spread:
"even where it´s legal to meet in groups (at work): think about reducing group size and getting tested"
stadt-koeln.de/politik-und-ve… Image
This is basically #aerosol.

Typical particle size: 0.1 - 10 µm
the same as a #SARSCoV2 virus , or a droplet carrying it.

Go ahead,
stop it with your plexiglass screens...
#SaharanDust
4 weeks ago,
the #Marseille fire department🚒 found an alarming rise in #SARSCoV2 markers during their routine sewage water screenings.
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬
5 days later,
a #Cluster of 23 cases (including one of the first #B117 cases in #France) was found in the city...
Image
After the #B117 cluster in January, #Marseille´s sewage water markers stayed on a plateau

but 3 days ago,
the Marseille fire department found an even higher surge in #SARSCoV2 markers.

There´s no sign of increase in tested cases/hospitalizations,
yet
😳
Image
🤔News coming in:

There´s a #B117 outbreak in a nursing home in Northern #Germany.

14 residents have been detected as carriers of the ´UK´ variant.

The thing is:
they all had received their second shot of Biontech/Pfizers´ #vaccine, ~2 weeks ago.
🤨
landkreis-osnabrueck.de/presse/presses… Image
Interesting handling of the #B117 outbreak in Northern Germany:
the nursing home´s entire staff is quarantined,
including their families(!)

for the staff, it´s a "work #quarantine": they are allowed to leave the house to work at the nursing home.
(🤔and the rest of the family?) Image
Western #Norway had been following the #outbreak near Oslo relatively relaxed. It was far away...
This has changed.

"The infection situation overall is not dramatic..."
but it´s not under control.

Bergen region is under #Lockdown, now:
bergen.kommune.no/hvaskjer/tema/… Image
~a week ago,
#Bergen (Norway) registered first cases of #B1351.

Until today, no common source has been found.
One "hotspot" is a workplace and close to a tram station: possibly many contacts.
Unrelated clusters of #B117.

(Potentially dangerous situation)
helsedirektoratet.no/tema/beredskap… Image
Together with Bergen, the (relatively) small town of #Ulvik has been a cause for the #Lockdown.

Its 14-day incidence rate stands at
6.944, today.

But it didn´t start 14 days ago.
It all happened much faster...
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
It was 10 days ago, that Ulvik´s first 2 cases were found.
Everyone was surprised:

it was in 2 returnees,
they had tested negative abroad
then tested negative in Norway
then quarantined for 10 days
and AFTER that
spread infections via kindergarten, school
vg.no/nyheter/innenr…
#Norway´s Ulvik is a relatively small town.
They are shocked to have 96 cases of #B117,
this evening.

They have a clear view of how the infections spread:
🔎
It was the children at #school & kindergarten.
They infected their parents and grandparents.🚸⚠️
ulvik.kommune.no/aktuelt/kjare-… Image
In the #Netherlands, many primary schools will not go open, today

"We really do this for the safety of the teachers and the students,"
"It's a shame, because we hoped that schools would open. It's pure force majeure."

It´s because of snow☃️
Not #B117🧬
nos.nl/artikel/236773…
Interesting:
Hannover Region (#Germany) analyzed
74 recent #COVID19 samples:
32 of them were #B117
(~40%)
(2 were other variants, yet unclear).

(That´s also the region where indications had been found of a very early #B117 case in November 2020)
deister-echo.de/anteil-der-vir…
#Hannover Region, also interesting:
"We had one child carrying #B117 at a primary #school.
After testing all contacts, we only found
1 more child had been infected.
We believe it happened via out of school contact."

(no detailed circumstances)
hannover.de/Leben-in-der-R… Image
I see why #Norway is so worried about the #B1351 outbreak in Bergen:
the hotspot is a construction site
inside a partly operational student housing.
1.600 students live there,
and they all take the same tram, shop at the same supermarket,
as the workers
😱
nrk.no/vestland/fire-…
Bergen is now very clear:

"Close all large contruction sites in #Norway!"

And:
If the government doesn´t act, Bergen will take regional measures and close all sites in their jurisdiction...)
norwaytoday.info/news/bergen-wa…
Oh no🙄
Trondheim in Norway hasn´t "lost control".
They just don´t know how big the problem is, yet...

(Customers who had visited a hardware store in a 5 day period need to isolate immediately - with families.
That store was spreading #B117 infections...)
nrk.no/trondelag/ny-s… Image
Wording🙄

"This is about limiting mobility,
calling it a ´travel warning´ is just wrong"

(#Austria has issued an official travel warning for their own state #Tyrol, as Tyrol continues a rather ´intransparent´ handling of unknown numbers of #B1351 cases)
tirol.gv.at/presse/pressem… Image
Wording😵 - read carefully🙄

#Austria´s military will be deployed to #Tyrol for border controls...
of people who want to enter INTO Tyrol
from ABROAD (Germany, Switzerland, etc.)

and some contact tracing.

Okay?
What did you think? Calm down...😏
Here we go again...
A court rules "due to the successfully lowered incidence rates, current measures are disproportionate and must be lifted"

D´🍩🍩🍩🍩🍩🍩🍩h!
We won´t see donut days any soon.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
This is what #B117 does.
This is "disproportionate".
It just waits until you feel like📉🥳

You start to dance - it will hit you like a hammer
(incidence <35 to >130+ in just a few days)
lra-hok.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
A workplace outbreak is driving the rapid re-surge of #COVID19 in Hohenlohe (#Germany).
43 infected at work (#B117)
19 of 74 contacts already ´positive´.

Authorities scramble and quarantine secondary contacts (family members of mere contacts) as well! ...
hohenlohekreis.de/index.php?id=2… Image
Adding to Hohenlohe´s
"highly dynamic and worrying" #COVID19 trend:
a #kindergarten outbreak, where
"children infected parents and other children"

(They´re no "drivers of the pandemic" or "riders of the apocalypse" - they´re just people who infect others)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
A warning from Hohenlohe (#Germany):

2 weeks ago,
our district was the one with the lowest incidence in our entire state.

The sudden outbreaks have now turned us into the one with the highest incidence, within a matter of days.😞

Stick to the measures!
oehringen.de/buerger/corona… Image
📢Stick to the measures!

The interest in #Ireland´s fight against #COVID19 has somehow faded (according to view numbers of NPHET briefings).

Numbers may seem to be frustratingly stagnant, now.
👉But that´s the good news !👈

If people just hang in...
Image
When FINDING more cases is a good sign:

#Ireland had to stop tracing close contacts during the brutal peak of infections.
It has resumed. It starts to find more cases, now.
Even the asymptomatic ones.

That´s why case numbers seem ´stagnant´ at the moment
An indicator that your contact tracing actually works:

The proportion of discovered ´asymptomatic´ cases
in young age groups
should be ~20%
again.

(😳did we ever keep track of this, here?)
When it has started, the curves look the same.
Everywhere around the world.

#B117 in #Norway.
~14%
(week 5 not complete, yet)
fhi.no/sv/smittsomme-… Image
Suprise🙄in #Austria:

#Tyrol doesn´t have 8 active cases of #B1351.
It´s "120 active cases, at the moment", at least.

(that´s not what they told us, yesterday...)
Surprise😕for #Tyrol:

#Austria´s army will soon start with checks at the state borders of Tyrol (north),
controlling everyone who wants to LEAVE.

Negative #COVID19 tests will be mandatory.

(That´s not what they were told, yesterday...😏)
#Austria´s railway announce that a negative test would be required,
even for a mere transit through #Tyrol.
"Customers who had been to the supermarket since February 1st are advised to OBSERVE THEIR HEALTH
and IN CASE OF SYMPTOMS get a #COVID19 test done..."

🙄
We won´t make it to zero, any time soon.

Germany, #Osnabrück district. #B117.
landkreis-osnabrueck.de/presse/presses… Image
"A contractor had informed the supermarket that he had been tested "positive".
THEN LATER, DURING A MEETING at the supermarket he probably infected 3 employees..."

(that´s what the text says🤷
and there´s only this one text version circulating)
#Osnabrück
Image
#SARSCoV2 and the mystical mist.

#Melbourne Health Authority now suspects
the reason why people who were just passing through a hotel corridor got infected, was

an infected person had used a "nebuliser"
(inhaling medics, exhaling viral loaded aerosol...)
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
Oh
my
goodness
🤦

#SARSCoV2
🤦Narf!

#Vaping #SARSCoV2
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Oh. Okay.
😌
"The infection risk from a person #vaping is well
BELOW that from the same person SPEAKING.
Speaking only for 6 minutes per hour already yields a higher infection risk than high intensity vaping"

🤫
(study):
medrxiv.org/content/10.110… Image
The more transmissions,
the more chance for transmission failure (aka #Variants).

Some of them may be less fortunate.
Some of them will become famous as
"Variant of Concern".

The one from #Bristol seems to be an aspiring one,
featuring #E484K
🧬
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Denmark is surprised:
"Looks like we managed to have control of #B117"

The calculated reproduction factor is R(t)~0,99
meaning: this variant doesn´t grow!

It might be due to their strict counter measures.
And to their tracing, focussing on B117 contacts!
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
#Denmark:
"We need to keep our current measures. This monday, we have opened up our elementary schools again.

That effect will only be seen in a few weeks.

It seems, #B117 might rise to R~1,15 next week, and maybe only go up from then..."
A nebuliser seems to be incredibly effective in spreading #SARSCoV2.

But I somehow doubt it happens via "exhaled left-over aerosol with the virus attached to it"...
UK´s NERVTAG had evaluated the risk of nebulisers spreading #SARSCoV2, 3 weeks ago.

The inhaled aerosol would turn into droplets, once hitting lung tissue. Staying there.

(My guess for the Melbourne case is: contaminated ´unhygienic´ #nebuliser tank😣)
gov.uk/government/pub… Image
Whatever the #nebuliser in Melbourne´s quarantine hotel was spreading:

it seems to have been incredibly contagious...
😷
Interesting points in this interview:
(⏩after⏱️18´15"):

-N95 were not required for all personnel
-One was wearing an N95 but got infected
😷
The issue: wearing one isn´t enough.
It needs to be worn correctly.
#Melbourne #Nebuliser #Aerosol #COVDI19
facebook.com/abcmelbourne/v…
That seems to be another issue:
making people alert enough,
so that they think about maybe being infected,
even when they are off-duty and feel (mild) symptoms.

And not wander around the city for 3 days,
before finally a test says
#COVID19 "positive"🤦
Image
#France is confident enough to not sharpen their #COVID19 restrictions, at the moment.
Overall, test numbers have increased a bit
and positivity rate has decreased a bit.

Seems that everything is going fine...
for now.
🧐
🔎
Something is going on in Dunkerque,
in the North of #France:

Their positivity rate has gone up a lot,
the proportion of #B117 is 6 times as high
as the average of entire France.

Their hospitals are saturated and started transfers again...
bfmtv.com/grand-lille/co…
🔎
Something´s going on in Marseille,
in the South of #France:

"case numbers start to go up.
(as sewage #COVID19 traces predicted)
ICUs are saturated, but what´s new and alerting: it´s more and more younger patients admitted there..."
Oddly enough,
data from #Marseille says
"number of new #COVID19 cases has been rising slowly"
(from ~60 to ~130 cases per day)🔵

while
"there was a swift peak of #COVID19 markers in sewage water, but it´s receding, now"🟠
mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/upl… Image
Nothing much happens in Düsseldorf (#Germany):

They started to analyze their current #COVID19 cases and found:
"19.5% are already #B117

At the same time, their 7-day-incidence is pretty low (45,7 today)...
corona.duesseldorf.de/news/fast-jede…
Düsseldorf´s case numbers are constantly going down, depite a current "proportion of 19.5% #B117".

They say that proportion makes for 34 cases (in the last 10 days).
(🤔If those 34 and their contacts are under control, even #B117 should be manageable👊)
corona.duesseldorf.de/zielgruppen/al… Image
Trondheim (#Norway) learnt from Australia:
after discovering #B117 infected persons had been out in the city, they issued a warning & a list of all visited venues.

Everyone who had been there (at the certain time) was urged to get tested

(autotranslate):
trondheim.kommune.no/aktuelt/korona… Image
#Trondheim was trying hard.
But they discovered soon, their contact tracing couldn´t keep up (´was blasted´🙄as autotranslate says)...

Neighboring communities have now declared Trondheim to be
"Uncontrolled Infection Area"
and urge to not travel there...
nrk.no/trondelag/fryk… Image
When Trondheim´s contact tracing was still ´intact´, they thought that one case of #B117 at a school would be manageable😌

But today they found another case,
"with many contacts at this school"
😱
All 1.500 students, staff & families are quarantined, now.
nrk.no/trondelag/hele…
So,
#Germany just declared Austria´s #Tyrol (and Czechia) to be
"Areas of Uncontrolled Infection" (as Norway would say)

(it´s not the german "Virusvariant-Area" definition, that would cut off those regions completely.
Seems it´s just about heavy controls)
Many commuters from Czechia are working in #Bavaria.
"there´s a large number of outbreaks at workplaces, now".

They already had free/mandatory testing installed.

Now there´s a new rule:
"workers from Czechia must not leave their workplace" (no shopping)
landkreis-hof.de/neue-regelunge… Image
"Variants already make up 40%-70% of all new #COVID19 cases in the Bavaria/Czechia border region"
deutschlandfunk.de/covid-19-mutat…
There´s something going on in #France.

"today, already ~20% to 25% of new #COVID19 cases is the #B117 variant"

(but that´s not all)...
in #France´s department "Moselle",
there are ~300 cases of ´Brazil´& ´South Africa´ variants...

"The situation is worrying.
I will go there tomorrow and see what the problem is."

(there´s some notion that the infections might have come from... Germany🙄)
bfmtv.com/sante/variants…
At first glance, there´s not much difference between Moselle (France) and other departements.

It´s just that others have a falling incidence and Moselle slowly rises.
But if you know that rise is made up of #B1351 etc...

That´s really worrying.
grand-est.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
#France´s departement Moselle has already reacted:

Every school, where one (1) case of a new #variant (´South Africa´ or ´Brazil´) pops up,
will be closed.
Entirely.

~8 closed, so far (number rising)
francebleu.fr/infos/educatio…
The mayor of Metz (Moselle, #France) is in favour of a regional #Lockdown

"but it has to be short and hard. And it needs to take care of schools."
(He sees ´exploding case numbers among 10-20 year olds´)

"They need to stay at home".
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
Good morning, Melbourne,
good morning world!!!
✈
"Anyone who attended

Terminal 4 at
#Melbourne Airport

between 4.45am and 1.15pm on February 9 is being told to get tested and isolate immediately for 14 days."
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
#Ireland still has
"a long way to go"
#COVID19
Oh,
#Ireland's case decline has started to slow down!

(it used to be 6-9 percent per day.
Now 4-6%)
Authorities have a very detailed picture of #COVID19 spread in #France's Moselle.

It will be interesting to find a common pattern in this very localized prevalence.

Also one thing is noticable:
It's mostly in the age group 10-19 years.
Authorities in #Melbourne should have an even more detailed picture of where #COVID19 cases currently are.

Their response, after seeing the recent trail of infections:
#Victoria #B117
I see why they hurry & worry:

"the time between exposure, incubation, symptoms and testing positive is rapidly shortening.
So much so, that even secondary close contacts are potentially infectious within that 48-hour window"
#HyperSpeed
premier.vic.gov.au/statement-prem… Image
Most of Europe may think this might be a bit too much of a panic...😂👇
but on the other hand:

what happens if you attach wings and jet thrust to a "hyper-speed" virus?
(how did it get there, after all?☝️🙄)
🧬🚀🌏
#Victoria #B117
So #Germany has in fact declared
-Tyrol
-Czech Republic
-and also Slovakia

"Areas of Variant of Concern"

That should trigger a new "COVID Protection Ordinance",
prohibiting persons to travel from those regions into Germany...
(no test can change that)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
As it was announced during #France´s Health Minister´s visit

"the departement of #Moselle counts
~100 new ´South Africa´ variant cases, every day😯
Mostly in the North / West
It´s not only clusters, or travel related.
It seems to be community spread..."
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
This morning,
several mayors had urged to close the #schools in #France´s departement of #Moselle, as they saw the #B1351 variant was mainly spreading there...
Thionville´s mayor:
"~A hard #lockdown would need to close the borders as well and cut 150.000 people off from work.
Weekend #curfews would have heavy psychological impact on everyone.

The main issue is the #schools, where many are infected, these days."
Mayor of Metz (#Moselle):
"~Our local incidence is going above 400.
We´re seeing an explosion of #variant cases, especially in age group 10-20 years.

We need to stop this!
I´d like to start #school holidays one week early.
That means: today."
Despite all good proposals #France´s Health Minister left #Moselle, saying:
there should be more tests
and vaccination should be enforced.
🙄

The other things (closing schools, lockdown,...) would need to be discussed later.
😠many in Moselle aren´t happy
bfmtv.com/politique/vari…
Even #Moselle´s neighbors in #Germany are irritated:

"Why more testing?🙄Moselle already does twice as much testing and more vaccinating than we do here!"

They are afraid someone will have the idea to close the border between both regions...
sr.de/sr/home/nachri…
also #France, today:

"This is, to our knowledge, the first description of #reinfection with the ´South African´ #B1351 variant, causing severe #COVID19,
four months after a first mild infection."
watermark.silverchair.com/ciab129.pdf?to… Image
Meanwhile,
Kehl (#Germany) is preparing to offer free rapid (antigen) tests for residents and commuters to/from Strasbourg (their neighboring city in #France).

This is in anticipation of schools opening (Feb22) & maybe some new transit requirements...
For commuters from Czechia, Tyrol (& Slovakia) there will be no way to get to Germany, for a while.
Not even for going to work!

Germany just confirmed they will apply the full "COVID Protection Ordinance", due to widespread virus variants in those regions
Germany's railways are stopping to serve Tyrol, Czechia, ...
(also transit to italy, via Tyrol)
cool!
The #COVID19-hunting fire department of Marseille (#France) now has a chart,
showing the proportion of variants in wastewater samples
(´UK´ ~the same as ´Brazil´+´South Africa´)

and maps that show where they found which variant in samples
🪣🧬🧑‍🔬🚒
For the first time since last summer,
#UK´s reproduction number has fallen below R(t)~1,
in every region.

That´s WITH #B117 as a dominant variant!

They are under national #Lockdown.
Schools are closed.
news.sky.com/story/covid-19… Image
#Portugal´s reproduction number has fallen down to R(t)~0.71

Not only is this the lowest number since the start of the pandemic,
they claim
"this is the lowest R in whole Europe !"
😯
jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/coron…
#Portugal´s Prime Minister:

"The current confinement works!
We have to maintain the current level of confinement, certainly for the next 2 weeks
and we must realistically assume that we will have to keep it even during the month of March"
(schools closed)
covid19.min-saude.pt/atual-nivel-de…
Portugal´s R(t) seems to crash down,
right after they closed schools...
(which was the very last measure that was left, as everything else didn´t seem to work)

(Note: it takes ~2-3 weeks before measures show effects. Earlier measures may well have worked)
😧er, that wasn´t in the news, yet - was it?

According to biogroup (doing ~25% of all #COVID19 tests in #France),
the hotspot of ´Brazil´&´South Africa´ #Variants isn´t Moselle...
the share of these variants in #Vosges departement is 31.3%
😵
#B1351 #P1?
biogroup.fr/actualites/don… Image
What´s the special😵factor with Vosges departement?
While Moselle is kind of nice (I like it), it´s a lot of industry there.

Vosges on the other hand has mountains, snow, and...
as holidays have started in parts of France, already - TOURISTS (booked out)!
tf1.fr/amp/tf1/jt-13h…
Norge🇳🇴...har du det bra??

#COVID19 case numbers in Norway have stopped going down and suddenly jumped up (+154 cases more than the same day last week).

(Norway´s Health Minister yesterday:
"infections are under control.
Have nice holidays,
be careful")
nrk.no/norge/425-nye-…
#Norway´s National Health Institute #FHI right now, be like:
Norway´s National Health Institute:
Hei alle sammen!

There was some technical issue.
Some case reports got clogged in the system. And when we fixed it, they all came out at once.
There was no spike in #COVID19 case numbers.
Trend is still slowly downwards
Meanwhile, there´s🔥in Moselle (#France):
The Mayor of Metz is upset. It was confirmed again, that "no new meaures" would be taken against #B1351 & #P1 variants in #Moselle.

"This is like denying reinforcements to fire crews,
battling the blaze"
Prefect of #Moselle departement:
"We don´t want to restrict movements - the region is dependant on free travel to neighboring countries"
(🤦exactly!)

"We won´t close schools, as this would be too excessive, in view of the small number of cases"
(🤷huh?)
actu.fr/societe/corona…
Finally, there´s also some good news for #Moselle:

Crews from the #COVID19-hunting fire department of #Marseille will come all the way up to the north of #France, to support Moselle with their wastewater virus tracing !

They arrive tomorrow🚒
Start work on monday🪣🧬🧑‍🔬 Image
Meanwhile,
in Dunkerque (#France):

"The situation has worsened brutally <-(sic!)
Our incidence is now at 515,
as opposed to 384, a week ago,

while the circulation of ´UK´ variant #B117 is gaining speed."
nord.gouv.fr/Actualites/Act… Image
#Dunkerque has now "42% more patients in hospitals than 2 weeks ago".

As #B117 is taking its toll,
the mayor had asked to close schools...
it will not happen.

"sanitary measures" instead.
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
All of a sudden,
#NewZealand found a #COVID19 ´positive´ family in their community.

-a highschool teenager
-a onstruction worker
-a catering worker

There´s no hint to where they may have got infected, so far...
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
NZ´s list of "exposure sites" is long.
It´s interesting to see how NZ stacks test priorities, to avoid jammed test facilities:

Risk of exposure (casual outdoors or "casual plus" in indoor settings)
Time since exposure (earliest test 5 days after exposure)
health.govt.nz/our-work/disea… Image
It´s also interesting to see, how #NewZealand just flips open their handbook and assigns
"You´re #Level2 Area - and you over there, you´re #Level3, sorry. It´s just for 3 days."

(while I´m having another mental breakdown over local updates in Germany😭)
🇩🇪#BW
I mean:
WHY ON EARTH did someone think this would be necessary:

"personnel at medical facilities will no longer be required to wear FFP2 masks as long as they don´t have direct contact with patients"

(🤔I can´t see the aerosol. So it can´t see me)
…zialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/gesundheit-… Image
🚧✋🚧
Roadblocks around Auckland.

Of course, this will only work as long as you can say
"it´s only for 3 days - we think we´ll have it under control, then"

BTW: anyone knows how #Moselle (France) is doing with their #B1351 etc. outbreaks?
Is the virus starting to fool tests ?
Tests of the latest #B117 cases in #Melbourne gave "inconclusive" results.

One of them had "immediately transmitted" the virus,
despite having been tested
⚠️´negative´ before and AFTER the contact !⚠️

🙄👉🔘🚨
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
The "source case" testing ´negative´ before and AFTER transmitting,

+ one contact having 3 different results in one day...

🤔Those tests (procedures) appear to be pretty useless for that type of virus (which is supposed to be ´ordinary´ #B117)
#Melbourne
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
#Melbourne should aim for good testing (procedures)...

They now have
"hundreds or thousands of contacts"
who have been to a popular market hall.

They are all required to get tested and isolate at home for 14 days.
View of a hospital director from #Moselle:

"Hospitals/ICU are full. But only 50% are #COVID19"
"COVID Emergency calls start to increase, but not as bad as last year"
"We need to come out of this dictate, where public health commands over everything else"
europe1.fr/societe/un-ren…
I think,
the doctor´s view would be shared by many, when he says:

the priority should be
"detection, treatment and isolation"

The thing is:
many can´t see that #detection and #isolation would be working in #Moselle, at the moment.
today24.news/en/2021/02/str… Image
The "detection" capacity of #Moselle will soon receive a boost.
A convoy of #Marseille´s fire department started its 800 km route, this morning.
🚒💨
Their duty will be to develop a map of the different #SARSCoV2 variants´ spread, by analyzing wastewater.
The situation in #Portugal is looking better each day.

Hospital admisssions peaked ~2 weeks ago,
ICU peaked ~1 week ago (still remains very high).

Treatment is still mostly concentrated on #COVID19 patients...
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
The director of #Portugal´s largest hospital has one goal:
reducing #COVID19 patient numbers, so treatment of "normal" patients can resume.

He warns: "the virus is still there!
If we reopen hastily, it will all go up, just as fast as before."
publico.pt/2021/02/14/soc…
(article from last week):
"The closing of the schools was decisive for the abrupt drop in Portugal´s case numbers."

"Looking at age group incidences, I have no doubt that the closure of schools was decisive and we acted too late."
observador.pt/2021/02/09/car…
"~Last March, #Portugal´s case numbers were only 400 a day, so school closures showed no big effect.

Now we had 14.000 cases a day and infections in schools, (some spreading to families) - this is why school closures had such an impact."
publico.pt/2021/02/08/soc…
A note from the town of Ulvik in #Norway:

"The Mayor is optimistic, and believes that we are now seeing an end of the outbreak, thanks to great joint efforts in our small village!"

Only 4 new cases, that day.
The town of 1.067 inhabitants has 130 cases.
ulvik.kommune.no/kontaktinforma… Image
What happened in #Norway´s remote town of Ulvik,
that got 12% of the population infected with #B117,
sent hundreds (half the town) into quarantine
and 6 into hospital?

"We believe it was the kids"

🚸
vg.no/nyheter/i/gWLg…
Ulvik´s #B117 outbreak came from abroad, with a family.

They followed the rules, took 2 tests, quarantined for 10 days.
After quarantine was over, their son went to Ulvik school.
Just for one day...
🚸🧬
Later that day, the parents felt #COVID19 symptoms.
nrk.no/vestland/pasie…
#NewZealand and one #B117 infected kid:

"During the infectious period she was at #school for a very short period of time...

we are essentially talking about one or two days"

(will this become a story like Ulvik in Norway?)😞
#Dunkerque region Mayors (F):

"In our area, the ´UK´ variant #B117 is already making up 80% of #COVID19 cases."

"We´re not allowed to close schools,
but we close class after class, when infections occur.
So schools may finally close down all together"
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
Here´s the #COVID19 incidence rate of #Dunkerque region (and surrounding departements "Nord" & "Pas-de-Calais").

The entire area sees a rising trend (which is contrary to most of #France)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Something to think about:
While Dunkerque´s incidence is currently ~230ish,

here´s the incidence for Moselle (purple ~290)

and Alpes-Maritime in the South of #France (blue, ~500) - they wonder why everyone freaks out about the numbers in the North and no-one talks about them... Image
Here´s more tricky data from #France:
The rate of positive tests.

Which one should we worry about?
Alpes-Maritimes (blue) has ~33% #B117
Nord (Dunkerque, green) has ~80% #B117
Moselle (purple) has many #B1351 cases, goes wild on testing, so positivity rate goes down
🤔 Image
Me,

seeing incidences fall,
test positive rates fall,
even in those areas with a high share of #Variant cases,
the world swinging into "Yeah, let´s reopen!" mood,
I´m nearly falling to it myself...

Just swiftly checking the internet for #COVID19 reports
and...

nooooooooooo !
Y´all remember the case of the Quarantine Hotel staff in #Melbourne,
who received regular #COVID19 tests.

She tested "negative" before she went into a restaurant, "immediately" infected several people,
and was tested "negative" again, the next day...
theage.com.au/national/victo…
One of the (false "negative" case´s) contacts at the #Melbourne restaurant was tested over and over for 2-3 days.

She returned 4 different results,
a "maybe" weak positive.

It was decided to be "positive", today.
(hundreds of contacts need to quarantine)
dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-co…
Now, Bergen (#Norway) sends a warning:

"We´re seeing it over and over again:
Contacts test ´negative´.
Then in quarantine they develop symptoms.
And even later they´re finally tested ´positive´.
This seems to be a feature of the new #variants"
🙄👉🔘 🚨
nrk.no/vestland/berge… Image
Now, #Austria´s Tyrol comes along, saying

"well, we found around 505 ´South Africa´ variant (#B1351) cases, so far.
~142 seem to be active right now.

But you know what? WE STILL HAVE THE LOWEST INCIDENCE RATE IN ALL OF AUSTRIA !😁"

😳😧😣
tirol.gv.at/gesundheit-vor… Image
Will I have mutant nightmares?
🙄
Nah - everything will be fine soon.
We´ll go out and have fun and everything else, again

"Hi, I´m negative"...
France has modified the #COVID19 outbreak protocol for schools.

If it´s a #B117 variant,
only close contacts need to quarantine.

If it´s a #B1351 or #P1 case, the whole class will need to quarantine immediately.

🤔wait... how do they know the variant?🙄
education.gouv.fr/covid19-ouvert… Image
Parents in #Moselle refuse to send their kids to school.
🤷
20minutes.fr/sante/2977483-…
Superstars...

The #COVID19-hunters from Marseille fire department have begun their work in #Moselle.
They seem to be constantly surrounded by reporters.

🪣🧬🧑‍🔬 📸📹

(not so famous: the canal workers who actually wade through that stuff every day🙄)
france24.com/fr/info-en-con…
Yesterday, first wastewater samples were taken from 8 large sewage treatment plants, schools and nursing homes in #Moselle.

🪣🧬✈️
A plane transferred them to Marseille where they are analysed for #COVID19 variants.
First results will be announced today.
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
😮
Oulaaaa....

Mayor of Dunkerque (#France) just exploded.

"~this 'UK' #variant is highly contagious. It is going to saturate our hospitals in no time.
We had measures, but government brought their own, keeping schools open.

We need IMMEDIATE action."
Now Alpes-Maritimes makes itself heard:

"I resort to draw your attention to the fact that I already had the honour to formally urge Monsieur Ministre in 2 earlier letters...😠"

that this departement is the REALLY worst hit in France and needs vaccines.
Health Minister of #France just announced:

"The situation in #Moselle remained under control.
No further measures are needed.
It´s difficult to say why the variant hit this small landstrip."
🤨
(that´s too reassuring the neighbors that it is ´confined´)
actu.fr/societe/corona…
A press conference of #Moselle´s regional authorities wasn´t so optimistic, earlier today:

"360 of 4.000 classes are closed, due to at least one case of #B1351 (in class or family)".

"Half of analyzed #COVID19 cases are now variants.
35% are #B1351."
actu.fr/societe/corona…
Information from today´s press conference in #Moselle (France):

First results of the watewater samples (taken by specialised crew from Marseille fire department) are in.
All samples fom nursing homes show no sign of #COVID19, there.

Here´s how they work:
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
There was also some disappointment:
#Moselle will not publish other wastewater test results, for now.
"It would say nothing. This is the first shot. It´s only after we´ve taken a 2nd sample that we can see a trend."

These results may come next weekend.
republicain-lorrain.fr/sante/2021/02/…
Germany´s #RKI has just changed their #quarantine guidelines:

"#Variants are becoming common, so stricter variant-quarantine rules shall now be applied to all cases
(14 days, no shortening by tests).

"secondary contacts don´t need to be quarantined"
🤔
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
In a few hours,
#Melbourne shall "largely return to its previous rules".

Not to the eased ones, that would have come into force the very day, when it was discovered that #B117 had escaped quarantine.

And there'll be masks.
Because you never know.😷
All of #Victoria's lockdowns had happened, because city hotels are not really made to serve as quarantine facilities.

At last,
that is looked into.

A quarantine camp in Australia's Nortern Territory will serve as a model.
premier.vic.gov.au/exploring-new-…
For #NewZealand, it's not over, yet.

The #B117-infected teenager, who had been to school for 1-2 days...
of course, the virus infected someone in her class,
who then infected someone in her family...

They had already been in quarantine.
But new contacts.
Dordogne (in south-west #France) is such a remote area, that even tweets need a day to get known to the world...

So how on earth did 'South Africa'/'Brazil' #COVID19 variants manage to get there???

160 cases.
"no community spread", so far...
Things go a bit more relaxed, in #France´s Dordogne.

60 tests have been done on monday. ~10 are #COVID19 ´positive´.

They are now sequenced in Paris & Lyon.
Being such a remote location, some think it may well be "a local #Variant"...
sudouest.fr/dordogne/nontr…
The 60 tests on monday in Dordogne were no "community test campaign".

These tests were meant for visitors (contacts) of some nursing homes, where the suspicious variant is circulating.

The official note is
"A massive community spread is not observed".
🤷
20minutes.fr/faits_divers/2…
Actually, the outbreak of the "suspicious variant" in Dordogne (F) might have been going on for quite a while.

They talk about a deadly outbreak in a nursing home in Nontron, starting ~22 January.
And authorities still don't know where the "mistery #variant cases" of #Dordogne came from.

(but for sure, they claim: "it is contained")
😏
rmc.bfmtv.com/emission/covid…
So,
#Germany is a bit agitated, since the Health Minister stated that "meanwhile, #B117 is found to be over 20% of #COVID19 cases"...
😨

Denmark: "hold my test tube...!"
Yesterday, #Denmark published sequencing results.

They found #B117 was ~30% of sequenced samples in week 5 (~2 weeks ago, early February)
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
And #Denmark also found,
that current measures seem to lose power to contain infections...

R(t) for #B117 is now ~1.2 (!!)
🌊
covid19.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
#Denmark's numbers were decreasing a lot.

One proposal was made in parliament:
"We would like to open Denmark a little bit more as spring is back"

All kids back to school.
(part time, tests),
small shops open
(when case numbers stay low)

😐We'll see...
(updated, while I had a coffee break🍰☕️)

😕#Denmark now says, last week´s share of #B117 was already 45%...
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
Denmark´s Health Minister:

"Our current reproduction number is currently R(t)~0.9

that´s not bad, considering we opened primary schools on February 8 and the fact that B117 is already at 45%"
How does it look like, if #B117 finally gets to 80%?

That just hapened in Dunkerque (#France)
their incidence jumped over 650

"If you look at Dunkerque and the surrounding towns, it seems #B117 is establishing really fast"
🤔These results are from 7 #B117 patients, only.

Seems
"symptoms of infections with the new variants start very late in quarantine"
(Norway, Victoria)
"People left quarantine and THEN started to infect others"
(Singapore, Japan,...)
is really a thing.
🤨
Study:
The mean duration of infection with ´ordinary´ #COVID19 used to be ~8.2 days (max. 9.7 days)

If a person catches the #B117 variant virus, the usual infection duration seems to be ~13.3. days (at least 10.1 days, max. 16.5 days)...
🤨
dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/hand… Image
A map of local #SARSCoV2 variants

(according to #Germany)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
A map of local #SARSCoV2 variants

(according to #Norway)
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
A mapf of the local #SARSCoV2 variant

(according to France´s Health Minister,
all new cases in #Moselle should be regarded as being #B1351 (or a ´Brazil´ variant)
For perspective:

The test rate of #Moselle (France is throwing all their spare tests in there).
And Alpes-Maritimes.

(note: on this scale,
Germany would have ~250 tests per 100.000 inhabitants per day)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Interesting effect:
(positive rate, 🇩🇪 has ~6.5%)

While the mass testing in #Moselle seems to find many "negatives"🤔,

the ~constant testing in Alpes-Maritimes suddenly goes📈😱(#B117 was present with 30%, 5 days ago. Yesterday this was said to be 50%)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
"There´s no case explosion in #Moselle",
the prefect said.

(unfortunately, there´s no insight in who´s getting tested, as well...)
In #Czechia, things are consistent (in getting a bit worse every day): R(t)~1.1

But tomorrow, there´ll be talks about opening shops.
And school might start again in March (with some testing).

(🧐needs to be watched...)
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/k…
A research institution in #Germany "wants to find out, if analyzing wastewater may give hints to #COVID19 in the area."
"Early results of the first pilot are expected soon".

(😴they started ~3 waves ago and are still stuck with "research"???)😣😳😢
mdr.de/thueringen/vid…
The COVID-hunters of #Marseille fire department have just published new maps of how infections with #SARSCoV2 variants are distributed in their city.

(Derived from sophisticated wastewater sample analysis...)
The new "trendy" variant #B1525 (a mix of ´UK´ and ´South Africa´ variant) has been discovered in 22 samples in #Norway.

All from the Jan 21 - Feb 8 period,
most from Oslo region.

"As this variant shows up in tests as simple B117, it may be overlooked!"
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/n…
Due to recent findings
(variants can cause infections to persist longer),
#France will adapt its isolation period from 7 days to 10 days.

(for ALL infected persons, REGARDLESS of the actual variant).

"for contacts, it stays at 7 days quarantine"
#Finland has found a brand new variant (#FIN796H).

-this one may cause "N-gene target failures", so may not be detected by some PCR tests
-may be more infectious
-may escape immune response

+no reason to panic😎
(just a cause of concern)

(autotranslate)
vita.fi/uutiset/suomes… Image
New cases in #Melbourne.
Already in isolation, so no big worries

They are believed to have been infected by the "Nebuliser" event on Feb 3/4.
They still tested ´negative´ on Feb 10.
🤔

(7 day quarantine period might really be too short for new variants)
Seems #B117 is getting ready for a great tour of #Germany...

2 kindergartens, 10 infected staff and 10 infected kids. 100 contacts (one week ago).

That turned into:
67 sequenced so far - 45 of them carry #B117

"The kids swiftly infect their families"
🙄
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe… Image
#B117 at work here as well?
#Germersheim sees a rapid uptick in their 7 day incidence rate.
Was pretty low before,
yesterday: 93.8
today: 106.2
...
(kindergartens involved...)

Oh: in 3 days, many german schools shall reopen.
😕
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… ImageImage
Kindergarten, other part of #Germany:

"A new dynamic in infections"
"Many of those kids are really sick"

Note: the kindergartens are open for kids of ESSENTIAL workers. Having those workers infected by their kids is maybe not what we´d want...
🤔
wn.de/Muensterland/K…
A swift google search for outbreaks at kindergartens in #Germany. (Timeframe: last 24 hours)

Just go ahead.
Check it:
google.com/search?biw=160… Image
A hospital in #Norway, near Oslo just started to sequence all #COVID19 cases they found.

Surprising result:
~80% are already #B117.

sykehuset-ostfold.no/nyheter/na-ana… Image
I was kind of wondering, why #Oslo had such a sudden surge of cases in the last ~5 days...

With 80% #B117, that´s no wonder anymore
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
Now:
Outbreaks in #Oslo's West (!)

"As it is mainly in children and young people, we suspect it's a variant"

"It looks like those cases are connected"

(4 districts concerned,
300 close contacts)
😦
dagsavisen.no/oslo/smitteutb…
Current #outbreaks in Oslo's West (#Norway):

"Children and adolescents had been sent to activities with mild, cold-like symptoms.

Parents need to pay more attention to this..."

😠gnnnnnnn.....
direkte.vg.no/nyhetsdognet/n…
Interesting difference:

While one hospital NEAR Oslo today said they found 80% of their #COVID19 cases were #B117,
(they´re located in a hotspot)

it´s different in the city of #Oslo itself:
10-15% of samples are a Variant (says Norway´s Health Institute)
direkte.vg.no/coronaviruset/…
Meanwhile in #Moselle the second wastewater testing showed: the situation hasn´t changed.
The tracers for #B1351 variant still remain much higher than anywhere else in France.

Moselle firefighters have been trained, now.
They´ll take over sampling, soon.
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
One thing speaks against being content with that "stable condition" in #Moselle:

Intensive care units are 95% occupied.
And the age average of the occupants is strangely low:
55 years (10 years younger than it would normally be in France)...
republicain-lorrain.fr/faits-divers-j… Image
Remarkable in #Moselle:

while the watewater tests showed
"spread of #B1351 stayed the same, this week"

the number of admissions to intensive care suddenly spiked in the last ~4 days.

(That certainly shouldn´t keeep going on like this)...
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
In Kolding (#Denmark) the reopening of primary schools (Feb8) didn´t go well.
Several clusters of #B117 around schools and kindergartens developped in the last few days.

Thes situation got so bad, that all schools & kindergartens are now shut down.
tvsyd.dk/covid-19/freda…
As "something strange is going on" with kids in #Kolding🇩🇰,
with violent outbreaks at schools and kindergartens,
the city now offers #COVID19 tests for kids.

They recommend taking a test with kids as young as 1 year.
tvsyd.dk/covid-19/koldi…
#Denmark is closing many crossings to #Germany, tonight.
Reason: #B117 cases in the german border city #Flensburg don´t seem to be suppressed.

It started ~2 months ago (after Germans met for new year´s parties in Denmark) but it is self-sustained, now
nordschleswiger.dk/de/nordschlesw…
Case numbers have been increasing relentlessly.
"Meanwhile, EVERY NEW CASE is a #B117 variant"...
So, #Flensburg installs drastic measures:
- a nightcurfew &
- prohibiting contacts outside one´s household
for a week
(can be extended...)
flensburg.de/PDF/Schreiben_… Image
#Denmark's police confirmed:
"Infections' pressure from #Flensburg caused new border measures"

Only a handful border crossings remain open, strictly controlled.

Entry allowance would need:
-a "worthy" cause
-a 'negative' #COVID19 test
#Denmark´s initial border controls were aimed at keeping #B1351 out of the country.

The Kolding outbreak showed that #B117 can have a heavy impact as well.

And in some regions it is exploding...
(Syddanmark: there´s Kolding. And the border to Flensburg)
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
And in Aabenraa community (🇩🇰),
just over the border from Flensburg (🇩🇪),

registered #COVID19 cases suddenly went up to "bad as in December" levels, since ~7 days.

(so closing the border a bit more may seem to be an easy way to control the spread)
experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa4… Image
Different approach at the Saarland (🇩🇪) - Moselle (🇫🇷) border:
Both border regions reached an aggreement.

They´ll install a joint test centre.
And provide enough free rapid tests for firms in the region to test their commuting workers every 2 days.
sr.de/sr/sr3/saarlan…
At the border between Bavaria🇩🇪 and Czechia🇨🇿, the "rapid testing at the workplace, with free antigen tests" approach is already in place ( since ~2 weeks).

(just so you know:
they realized incidence doesn´t go down,
"because now we find more cases")🙂
landkreis-wunsiedel.de/buergerservice…
"The tendency in the last 3 days isn't good - not good anymore..."

Health Minister of #France confirms that the trend of decreasing case numbers seems to slow down.

But he still wants to wait for 8-10 days to adapt the current measures (or not)...
Lindesnes in #Norway hits the emergency-stop:

"Stay at home! Stay in your family!
We are in an unclear situation and infections keep spreading."

It all started at the local café...
(maybe it is a variant.
They just call it "the Superspreader-Virus")
lindesnes.kommune.no/hold-deg-hjemm… Image
One person at the #Lindesnes🇳🇴 café infected people from:
2 clinics
a pharmacy
stores
a gym

in 15 different communities

17 ´positive´, so far
>230 quarantined

The café owner was shocked when he learned he was the one who infected them:
"I felt nothing!"
vg.no/nyheter/innenr…
This one starts to freak me out...

#Germersheim district (🇩🇪) found out, why they have a surge in #COVID19:

"Unfortunately, we´re one of the first districts to have
#B117, #B1351 and #P1 at once.
The share of variants in new cases is now 25%"
🙄
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
#Germersheim found:
-current incubation period seems to be CONSIDERABLY LONGER THAN 5 DAYS.
-asymptomatic (children) have a long ´period of opportunity´ to infect others
-current #RKI contact tracing rules aren´t sufficient
(RKI: ´infectious period starts 2 days before symptoms´) Image
Yes, the majority of #outbreaks in #Germersheim district concerns #schools and kindergartens, at the moment...

But this is the thing that *really* draws my attention:

"increased influx of persons from risk areas"
"infections in housing units of maintenance workers"
🤨 Image
It wasn´t too hard to find, where those maintenance workers from #Germersheim, might be supposed to work...

there´s some big project going on,
attracting ~5.000 contract workers

🧑‍🔧🛠️👨‍🔧🪛👩‍🔧⛓️🧑‍🏭⚙️👨‍🏭🔩👩‍🏭 Image
🤔Ermmmm.... (I appreciate their openness, but)

Entry tests showed: "1% of workers is infected"
"That´s normal" and "in case of large outbreaks: we have back-up crews"
"Workers reside at local hotels"

(Article is from before #Variants were known, there)
bnn.de/karlsruhe/bis-… Image
Ah,
the company´s own press release stated:
"Workers were tested on arrival, BEFORE they started work at the project."
In 2 weeks, 2.500 workers were PCR tested.
1% of those were found ´positive´.

(that´s still an incidence of 1.000 in that ´community´😕)
miro-ka.de/_public/_asset… Image
Oslo (🇳🇴) found they have a #COVID19 issue with construction sites (a lot of blaming😕on foreign workers)

They´ll start a test raid on construction sites, but can´t force anyone to get tested.🤷

(👉a test is obligatory for entry to the Karlsruhe🇩🇪site)
abcnyheter.no/nyheter/norge/…
"Dealing with #B117 among workers"...

Early February, #Dillingen district 🇩🇪 registered an outbreak among workers/families/returnees from abroad.

Today, their incidence is one of #Germany´s lowest.

It was manageable with strict measures.
👉It´s not gone
augsburger-allgemeine.de/dillingen/Coro… Image
Dillingen´s #B117 outbreak was mostly confined to residents of 2 workers´ housings.

They could ´easily´ be quarantined (with strict security surveillance).
Quarantine has ended, now.

But there are already new outbreaks at other companies...
landkreis-dillingen.de/covid-19-landr… Image
Oh,
the situation in #Germersheim doesn't get better.

Even on low testing sunday, their incidence rose (now 124.8)!
😯
The #schools were supposed to reopen, tomorrow.
That had been changed to "voluntary participance" - and is just now being cancelled.
Interesting:
UK and France have agreed that a #COVID19 test for truck drivers will no longer be necessary, if the stay in UK was shorter than 48 hours.

(Only 0,1% of all truck dirvers tested "positive", recently.
And France´s incidence is higher than UK´s
#Germany is said to prepare a declaration as "High-Incidence Area" for France´s departement #Moselle.

(Yes, incidence is higher than in most german areas - but declaring it a ´Virusvariant-Area´ would be more appropriate, due to high #B1351 presence🤷)
20minutes.fr/monde/2982263-…
#Germany´s move isn´t a hectic one.
It was prepared (most certainly accorded).

Thursday, districts were already urged to issue special ordinances.
They will make it possible to provide the obligatory test AFTER crossing the border (e.g. at the workplace).
landkreis-karlsruhe.de/Quicknavigatio… Image
In #NewZealand, one more contact of the "mystery" outbreak of Auckland has finally tested #COVID19 ´positive´.
Had been isolating at home, with partly infected family, for one week.🙄
No spread in the community.

(I think it´s the last of 6 family members)
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
The day everything will return to ´normal´.
It´s not defined by an "incidence rate lower than xy"
or a "reproduction rate below yz"...

it´s when you can be pretty sure EVERY SINGLE CASE AND CONTACT is safely under control.
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
A prediction from #Poland´s Health Minister:
"The third wave has started. From now on, case numbers will only go up until ~March/April, when we´ll reach the peak of infections which will be ~10-12.000 cases per day."

"But the variants could worsen it".
tvn24.pl/polska/koronaw… Image
This afternoon regions in France (#Moselle) and Germany (Saarland) were relieved:

"There will be no additional restrictions at the border!"

(note: this doesn´t say ´nothing will happen´...)
To keep the traffic flowing across the border France (#Moselle) - Germany,
a high ranking, interministerial, "taskforce" from both countries and regions will need to find a solution.

They´ll discuss tomorrow...
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/saarland/lande…
One thing´s for sure:
controls at the border would provoque traffic to collapse.

A test center is being constructed at the border, right now. Its capacity is 500 tests per day.
There are ~15.000 daily commuters.

(Maybe it´ll turn to workplace testing)...
sr.de/sr/home/nachri…
I remember this crazy time (2020), when french colleagues were barred from work, just because they had a french passport.

Rapid tests would certainly have helped
(and would have found infected persons).

We´ll see what they come up with, this time.
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/pm/zweibruecke…
#UK just heard the timeframe back to normality:

March - schools & outdoor sports
April - all retail, restaurants (outdoors), staycations...
May - cinemas, hotels, large events...
June - everything is like before (nearly)

Their big hope is #vaccination.
#COVID19 case ditribution in #Aabenraa (Denmark)

a story of children, their parents and 2 weeks of open elementary schools...
🤷
experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa4… Image
Sequencing for week 7 is still ongoing, but so far
#B117 in #Denmark seems to contribute to ~57% of new cases.
(in Syddanmark, where Aabenraa is situated, it´s ~87%)
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
Hard-hit Dunkerque (#France) had started a mass test campaign, last week.
It showed results: #Dunkerque´s incidence was catapulted from ~713 (Friday) to over 900 (monday)!
#B117 has a share of ~70%.

The test campaign goes on...
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc…
Okay.
To return to 'normal',

you'd need to be REALLY pretty sure EVERY CASE AND CASUAL (plus) CONTACT is safely controlled,...
🧬It´s there. just look for it🧐

After having a first emergence of #COVID19 cases in one factory, a food producer in South #Germany wanted to take no chances. They had their site´s entire personnel tested.

Surprise: 55 of 300 came out ´positive´ (#B117).
suedkurier.de/region/kreis-k…
Since beginning of February, #Ireland´s share of #B117 is ~90%.

They still manage to keep case numbers falling,
but less and less successful, every day.
gov.ie/en/collection/… Image
With the current fragile situation, #Ireland is being said to prepare for ~6 weeks more of thier current strict confinement.

Then, in April, vaccination-effects will come to the rescue...
rte.ie/news/coronavir…
#Ireland seems to have one desire:

opening #schools, again.
At least for the younger grades.

And so they will do. Next monday, already.
Long before any protective effect of vaccinations would be noticeable in their population...
#Austria has reopened #schools since ~2 weeks ago.
That seems to work, with regular self-tests (every 2 days).

´Positive´ tests went up in the second week,
"because kids were getting used to tests and finally started to produce more reliable results"
🙄
vienna.at/536-positive-c…
Recently, #Austria´s case numbers are rising again.
Not said that´s because of schools. Other institutions reopened at the same time (hairdressers, museums,...)

One major difference to #Ireland:
There ain´t 90% of an aggressive #SARSCoV2 variant (yet)
🤨
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
A consulting group of experts in #Denmark has calculated that antigen-tests, done twice a week, would reduce infection risk at schools by 50%.

They advise to try it out with older grades...
but NOT in the areas where #B117 has a high prevalence.
sum.dk/Media/7/6/Inds… Image
#Denmark has more than 60% #B117, now.

And they wonder:
"We do not know why #B117 increases the risk of being hospitalized.

But our figures point in the same direction as several studies from the UK that show #B117 may have more serious trajectories"
🤨
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
The story of the outbreak of #B117 in #Norway´s small town of Ulvik:

ONE kid came back from abroad. After tests and quarantine, went to school. And introduced #B117.

In one month´s time ~12-13% of the population had been infected.
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
A week ago, #Ulvik stated:

"~The outbreak seems to be over. It has burned through.
Recent cases were isolated to families."

They started careful reopening on Monday, February 22.

Since then only 1 case.
(path is known)

(Population 1067, infected: 134)
ulvik.kommune.no/kontaktinforma… Image
Recently,
a document has been published.

It´s the expert council´s advise on how to deal with the surge of #B1351 in #Moselle (from February 12).

The expert weighed 2 options:
1) Test-Trace-Isolate-Vaccinate
2) Confine the region

They couldn´t decide.
solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/avis_c… Image
The experts left the decision on how to deal with #Moselle´s #B1351 issue to politics...

They opted for the "least damaging" option:
test-trace-isolate-vaccinate

and so (once again) a large mass testing campaign started...
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
#Moselle´s X-mas mass testing brought positivity briefly down (as everyone wanted tests for holidays).

With the current mass testing positivity went down again. But recently it stopped falling.

Indicating infections are really spreading in the community... Image
As #Moselle´s Test-Trace-Isolate-Vaccinate strategy seems to lose its power, there might be something else needed to keep the situation in control.

Saying is: there might be a weekend-confinement.
More is expected to be told in a press conference, today.
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
One surprise measure due to the high #B1351 presence in #Moselle (France):
France will demand a negative PCR test from everyone who wants to ENTER Moselle.
😮???!
For work-commuters it will be once per week.
Others need it every time.

solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/actualites/pre…
Prime Minister of #France:
"The situation in our country has deteriorated,
in recent days.
After several months on a plateau, the virus is gaining terrain, again.

In many other countries, like in ours,
something is happening, in the past few days"
#France seems to be worrying about 20 departements, particularly.
They are given one week time to think of own solutions.

"~If the situation hasn´t changed to the better..." (after ONE week?🤔) "...we may think about confinements"
"The ´UK´ variant (#B117) is already 50% of all new cases in #France"
lavoixdunord.fr/945431/article…
A district in northern #Germany says there was "one case, where only handing something over to a colleague was sufficient to be infected with #B117" !

They now trace casual contacts (less than 15 minutes),
from 5 days before,
and quarantine is 3 weeks !😮
ndr.de/nachrichten/ni…
As a result of #B117 outbreaks in northern #Germany, the flagship shipyard Meyer Werft sees rising numbers as well...

(only in infected & quarantined workers, unfortunately.
Cruise ship contracts are low. The yard intends to ax 20% of jobs (at least)).
meyerwerft.de/de/inhalt/coro… Image
That´s welcome news from #UK.

(It´s level 4 now: transmission is high or (rather not) rising exponentially)
Image
Not so welcome news from #Norway:

suddenly, #COVID19 case numbers in #Oslo are (re)surging drastically.
And this also reflects the national situation.
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
#Norway:
"We are in a very difficult situation with the increasing spread of more infectious virus variants
and more outbreaks that the municipalities are struggling to crack down quickly"

They believe it´s already spreading unnoticed in some communities.
nrk.no/norge/551-koro…
Mediocre news from #Ireland:

Yes, even with a 90% share of #B117,
it´s still possible to maintain a suppression of case numbers.

But it takes a huge effort.

And they really, really hope vaccines will have a large impact, soon (first signs are positive)
assets.gov.ie/124756/a89d2e0… Image
#Ireland
Q "~People are disappointed they don´t see a path out out of restrictions"
A "~the path is vaccines"

Q "with the new variant, what could people do more?"
A "Continue. We were world´s worst, 6 weeks ago. Through people´s actions we´re top 10 now."
All you maskless (since you sit 1.5m apart) office workers...

This one´s for you:
remember the Quarantine Hotel Guard, who´s infection sent #Perth into Lockdown, a month ago?

The hotel had a "non-recirculating" aircon, pushing fresh air into the rooms...
abc.net.au/news/2021-02-0…
An investigation found, Perth´s Hotel guard ´did everything right´.

He never left his place (3m away from the door of an infected quarantinee).
He officially "didn´t need a mask"

It was the AIRFLOW UNDER THE DOOR, that infected the guard in 3 m DISTANCE
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
2 weeks ago, #Czechia wanted to reopen schools & shops.

Now "it looks we´re running into a disaster".

"We've made a number of mistakes, but give us another chance. We don't want last year's Bergamo in the Czech Republic."

They´ll go into full #Lockdown
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/z…
Does this look familiar?
Yes, it says:

"Stay Home
-Support our Health Service-
Save Lives"

#Czechia now copied UK´s early campaign,
to reach the public
(supported by #UK embassy in Prague)
mvcr.cz/docDetail.aspx… Image
The Czech Republic compared to UK.

#Czechia:
Jan18: "10% are now #B117"
Jan27: "#B117 is just in isolated pockets, it´s not spreading in community"
Feb22: "80% of the infected may carry #B117"
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
So what went wrong for #Czechia?
A too hesitant reaction to #B117.

"We should have sequenced it, traced it and tried to delay the moment when that mutation becomes dominant.
This did not happen.
Now there is no longer any point in attempting to do that."
english.radio.cz/80-percent-inf…
#NewZealand´s last #Lockdown lasted 3 days.

But this new case had so many contacts, that they´re sure it will need a 7 day lockdown, to find everyone...

To start with: it´s somehow connected to the last lockdown´s cases - but no link is known...
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
#NewZealand´s new case "showed symptoms on Tuesday and may have been infectious all week",
while partcipating in the community,
visiting several "popular locations"...
nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…
One possible link could be a younger sibling, who is at the highschool, where the recent #NewZealand outbreak took place.
But they already tested ´negative´,
3 times.
😮
Their mother seems to have been infected, even more recently...🤔
tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-z…
I see #NewZealand's worries:

The new case went to study courses for 3 days, while being infectious (Mon/Wed/Thu).

His contacts may already be infectious, spreading it further...

They´re really fast with updating this chart.
An hour earlier, the counter for Auckland´s cluster cases stood at "14".

Now, case 15 was announced (Case O, already in quarantine, no big deal).

Big worry is "case M": didn´t stick to isolation, was positive
stuff.co.nz/national/12438… Image
Whatever they do in #France´s departement Alpes-Maritimes, it didn´t help.
#COVID19 incidence is now 3 times the national average.
The city of Nice (Côte d´Azur) particularly high).

But they came up with a new idea... (🙄)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
A weekend curfew is in force in #Nice / Côte d´Azur.

It was mainly meant to keep away tourists, who would otherwise flock to the attractive (but highly #COVID19-ridden) area for weekend out.

It seems to be enforced quite strictly
👮🚫🏝️
The strict weekend curfew for #Nice / Côte d´Azur had an immediate effect:

virtually all inhabitants left the area,
to spend their weekend somewhere else, as tourists.

Tadaaa🎶:
There´ll be very low transmission in the Côte d´Azur area, this weekend.
🙄
#France seems to screw things up, recently.

The same day they ordered obligatory PCR tests for everyone wanting to ENTER their departement #Moselle,

France´s Prime Minister officially announced, that #B1351 now makes up 60% of all positive cases, there
gouvernement.fr/partage/12128-… Image
#Moselle has 60% share of #B1351 ?!

That didn´t go unheard. It caused "concern" in Germany.
Seems, things went into move on highest levels...
overriding all regional accords.

It´s not fully official, yet.
But Moselle will become "Area of Variant Concern"
The classification as "Area of #Variant Concern" for #Moselle may have consequences.

Cross border travel might effectively be compromised. It would require a massive amount of tests, which #France already says "would be impossible"
🤷
What no-one wanted: stopping border traffic to try to confine the variants to one region.

It should have been stopped at the level of infected individuals. The "border" should be their home´s door.

But testing in #Moselle crashes down.
Cases stay high😕
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
So,
it´s official.

Someone at #Germany´s #RKI had to flip their laptop open this sunday. And added one note to the list:

"New Area of #Variant Concern:
France, departement #Moselle
(starting Tuesday morning)"
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
France "regrets the quasi-closure of the border by Germany",
@CBeaune wants to negotiate easements, like:

a test not every day, but every 48 hours
acceptance of rapid-antigen tests

(What a show. That *is* the standard of Germany´s sharpened entry rules)
According to #Germany´s rules for entry from "Areas of Variant Concern":

- yes, you must be able to show a ´negative´ test result
->this test result may be up to 2 days old

- #RKI specifications explicitly mention rapid-antigen tests as being accepted
🤷
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/fileadmin/Date… Image
Something,
that may not have come to attention:

all public transport from/to "Areas of Variant Concern" will be stopped.
🚃🛑🚌
The end of commuter trains & busses,
e.g. going between Forbach (#France) and Saarbrücken (#Germany) in 11 minutes.
reiseauskunft.bahn.de/bin/query.exe/… Image
An impression, how incisive Germany´s "Area of Variant Concern" measures can be:

Many work commuters have given up crossing the #Czechia/Germany border.
They either stay in #Germany (hotel costs subsidized by the state)
or stay at home.
mdr.de/nachrichten/pa…
Oh no
Oslo
😮
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
#Oslo:
"The increase in infection we are now seeing is a result of imported variants.
The new virus #variants are spreading faster than previous variants.

Oslo people have taken great responsibility for a long time,
but we must now ask for even more"
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad…
Oslo introduces a full Lockdown:

restaurants closed
stores closed
schools "red" (remote)
no events
"avoid visits to other private homes"

More testing, especially for children & adolescents (note: recent events suggested they´re quite efficient spreaders)
Oslo´s #Lockdown rules also point to another major factor in their recent outbreaks:

"We will introduce our own infection control rules for construction sites.
Deliberate or grossly negligent violations shall be punished with up to 6 months prison time"
👷👈👮 Image
#Oslo:
"School will be either not happening or remote".

"We need to slow down infections among children and adolescents...we will look at possibilities to introduce mass testing and reduced contacts at school (for other lockdown stages, later)..."
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad… Image
#Moselle prefecture (France) just announced that crossing the border to #Germany will require (from Tuesday on):

a ´negative´ test (max 48 hours old, rapid-antigen tests are OK)
an entry form

+public transport will be interrupted
🤷
A data geek assembled #France´s departements in 3 groups, according to their share of #B117

🟩10%-30%
🟦30%-50%
🟥> 50%

Since ~3 weeks ago,
a trend became obvious:
in the groups with more #B117, case numbers grow much more/faster...
meteo-covid.com/graphique-comp… Image
One year ago, we all watched in awe, what was happening in #Italy.
😯
Those curves, they start to surge again...
(doubling every ~10 days)
Image
Today,
#Czechia´s #COVID19 situation doesn´t look better.

They introduced harsh restrictions (like confining people´s movements to one ditrict, with strict police controls)
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
Along with #Czechia´s travel restrictions,
comes a massive test campaign in the industry.

"We are not stopping the industry. However, comprehensive testing in companies will be mandatory."

(The goal is to test 2 million workes in 2 weeks!)
#Czechia´s neighbor states have come together to see what they can do...
Austria and Slovenia want to help by taking over some #COVID19 patients for treatment...
Some states (France, Israel, Germany) have aggreed to provide vaccines to Czechia.
english.radio.cz/countries-send…
At least in the case of Bavaria, the offer to help #Czechia with vaccines isn´t completely altruistic...

#Bavaria hopes, Czechia will vaccinate work commuters (who work in Germany)...
onetz.de/deutschland-we…
Today,
strict entry rules come into force for those from "Area of #Variant Concern" #Moselle (France), who wish to enter #Germany.
There´ll be no border checks, but mobile controls.
A ´negative´ test must be shown on any request.

Public transport stops.
republicain-lorrain.fr/economie/2021/…
Harsh words from the #Moselle/#Germany border region. They´re disappointed all their ideas "hadn´t been recognized".
"Berlin´s decision is brutal and ill prepared"🙄

(Actually, it was prepared.
In an ordinance from January to prevent spread of #Variants)
At least, the stop for trans-border public transport might be revised (as the ordinance needs to be reviewed tomorrow anyway).

(Maybe require every traveller to show a ´negative´ test?
But France already said this amount of testing would be impossible)🤷
bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/service/gesetz… Image
Meanwhile,
Germany´s #Germersheim district had a little note in their daily statistics:

"This weekend, there was one re-infection".

Usually the "exotic" variants (#B1351, #P1,...) do that. (They had already mentioned those variants are present, there).
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
The tests for those who wish to cross the border from #Moselle to Germany have commenced today.

Some try to get a test in their home town,
some at the border.
Everyone´s waiting.

This needs to be redone every 48 hours.
(Wait for next monday´s chaos...🙄)
Meanwhile #Moselle´s prefect states:

"The situation in Mosellle is getting better...
last week, our incidence peaked at 315, today it´s just 284...

(No.🤦
Don´t ever try to fool people - it´s just a bad idea and will backfire)
This is,
what the "positive development" in #Moselle looks like.

Being not overly critical, one could say: it stays the same...
an incidence of ~300.
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
This is, what´s behind the "positive trend" of
#Moselle´s ´not rising case numbers´:
1) testing has been greatly reduced
2) it´s school holidays! (12 days, already).
🧐
Shall we look at the positivity rate...In the next tweet - just for fun???
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
😕 sorry, no fun...

Since last week,
positivity rate in #Moselle has started to go up.
As it does in entire France,
or also in the departement Nord.

(looks like things are actually getting worse,
casewise, everywhere...)
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
The situation in #France´s departement ´Nord´ isn´t good at all:
the incidence in Dunkerque has just surpassed 1.000
and while the had tried to use mutual aid of neighboring cities, they now have just started to transfer first patients out of the region...
lepharedunkerquois.fr/109159/article…
#Austria has announced, they also have two (smaller) towns with an incidence above 1.000.

To prevent entire districts from locking down, they decided:
Everyone who wants to leave these towns needs a mandatory test.
Military will be staffing checkpoints.
service.salzburg.gv.at/lkorrj/detail?… Image
Tromsø (#Norway) has 44 infected with #B117.
But they think, it´s "under control".

"We have always dealt with the latest infections as if it were the ´UK´ variant"
but "If we can't detect the infection early enough,...we may quickly lose control"
nrk.no/tromsogfinnmar…
At the moment, #COVID19 spreads in #Norway with variable speeds:
in some regions it´s steady,
in Oslo, it seems to speed up.
While the country´s average is R~1.3,
Oslo has a local R-number of 1.55
📈
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
This shows, where most people got infected in #Oslo, last week...

1) at home (by family members, I suppose)
2) at workplace
3) at school / kindergarten (students)

The week before, 47 students got infected, now it was 158 (!)
📈
oslo.kommune.no/getfile.php/13… Image
There might be some mistakes in this text, as it is autotranslated...
but various sources confirm: the situation in #Czechia is really as surealistic as it describes.
😮
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/k… Image
Hospitals in #Czechia are overwhelmed.
One after the other declares their "incapabiity to treat".
Only real emergencies will be treated.

Anyone else will have to wait.
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/k…
#Czechia´s Health Minister just announced:
- a work order for all healthcare workers to help and treat #COVID19 patients.
- it may finally be possible to transfer patients to other countries
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/c…
#Slovakia has two key points:

~ It´s not all the new variants´fault: "there are other countries that had variants earlier, and they still do fine"

~ "our biggest mistake: trusting in antigen tests as a weekly surveillance. They´re not made for this!"

irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/pe…
#Germany´s governments have been fighting hard, until late at night.
They now finally came up with a plan.
A promise of "more normality and safe contacts"...

one major pillar is:
ONE #ANTIGEN TEST PER WEEK
(voluntary)
🤦
(in Slovakia, this turned out bad)
bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/… Image
#Germany´s reopening plan.

It´s defined by incidence numbers
and fixed dates.

Not one trace left of #COVID19 contact tracing.

It resembles an addict´s elaborately planned path to demise.
Promising to stop, when it gets too bad
No warning shall be heard.
bundeskanzlerin.de/bkin-de/aktuel… Image
Oh yes,
we should keep an eye on that.

#France´s Pas-de-Calais departement (next to Dunkerque) is now also seeing rapidly rising #COVID19 case numbers.
It seems to spread into the country.

Residents of 23 departements are asked not to leave their areas.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/… Image
Another measure in #France´s 23 "risk areas":

large / medium size shopping centres will have to close.
#France will bring 10.000 doses to Pas-de-Calais.

"General mobilization: mayors, caregivers, hospitals - everyone must be on the bridge, including on weekends, to vaccinate as quickly as possible.
We have entered a race against time in the epidemic..."
"Yes, #France sees rising #COVID19 numbers.
But it´s not -at least not for the moment- the exponential growth that some models had predicted..."
Meanwhile,
#Austria is "alarmed" by recent #COVID19 developments.
After reopening schools and shops (with some testing) ~4 weeks ago,
case numbers are surging, now...
nachrichten.at/politik/innenp…
Not all too surprising,
a growing number of #Austria´s kids is starting to get #COVID19 infected.

(with schools open, 5-14 year olds form a major part of new infections! 5-24 year olds make up for ~26% of all new infections)
orf.at/stories/320397…
Maybe #COVID19 statistics starting at the age of "0 years" are missing one point...
#stillbirths
🙄And... if my test turns out ´positive´, you will still let me out again, will you?
Hello... HELLO 😱aaaaaaaaaah

(I´ll take the swab instead, thanks)
They say "everything will be fine,
-we will vaccinate" (a bit more, starting in ~4 weeks)
-we will provide tests for everyone, once a week" (they don´t have them, yet)

But the grand reopening will start on Monday.
🙄👉📈
Image
Reopening, all the while this is happening in Baden-Württemberg:

R~1.12
1070 new #COVID19 cases detected
638 of them are #Variant cases (mostly #B117)

gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/DE/Fachinf… Image
The promise of "more normality"
already unleashed its power today:
one cashier needed to constantly remind customers: "take a cart, please"
no distancing anymore, windows shut ("its´s cold")
workers openly refusing to wear a mask
...
all because "everything will be normal, soon"
~Respect the dominance...~

A major shift in #Germany´s quarantine guidelines:
from now on, EVERY #COVID19 case will be treated as an infection with a #Variant.
(quarantine-wise)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Toxic.

"A PUNISHMENT for all"
"Our state DENIES us the reopening many of us DESERVE".

(followed by a hint that neighboring states will well open shops etc, and it´s "just outside our doorstep" (i.e.: we´ll go there))
insuedthueringen.de/inhalt.keine-l… Image
Note:
this dark red blob of incidences above 100 is #Thuringia, the area that the paper´s comment felt was being "denied its well deserved reopenings"...
🤷
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Another "pilot project" in Karlsruhe, #Germany,
trying to evaluate if it´s possible to register #COVID19 in wastewater and maybe put the results to use for timely outbreak detection.

They really found something...
ka-news.de/region/karlsru…
The article claims, that #Karlsruhe´s wastewater surveillance project detected a larger outbreak at a meat packing plant (69 infected, so far).
ka-news.de/region/karlsru… Image
Of course, #Marseille´s fire brigade is still doing wastewater analysis for #COVID19 tracking (and variant determination),
but they also do other pandemic-fighting jobs...
About a week ago, #Marseille´s mayor challenged #France´s president:

"I want to vaccinate 10.000 people per week - just send me the vaccines and I´ll do it"...

"curfews or lockdowns won´t eradicate the virus. Only collective immunity can do that..."
lepoint.fr/politique/vacc…
Surprisingly ~19.000 supplementary doses arrrived in the region around #Marseille, yesterday...
They will have to be applied quickly.

So, what do you do?
Call the fire brigade!

60 firefighters have set up a mobile vaccination point,
The region around #Marseille has ~5 million inhabitants, so ~19.000 doses of vaccine won´t do much.
But Marseille is already planning to go big - a huge stadium shall be prepared as a vaccination center.
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
#Austria has enjoyed one month of eased #COVID19 restrictions.

Back to school (with tests)
Shops, museums, etc. open (with FFP2 masks)
Hairdressers etc. open (with test and FFP2 mask)

Still: curfew 8 pm - 6 am
Reduced contacts (2 families)
(in theory) Image
A week ago #Austria´s "Wiener Neustadt" was at the top of accelerating #COVID19 increase.

"It´s not as tragic as the press says..."
"Of course, with the openings case numbers rise again"

Mayor:
"We see infections now happen among friends" (more contacts)
noe.orf.at/stories/309282…
Only 2 days later, a complete seal-off of Wiener Neustadt (#Austria) was discussed.

Much to their relieve, this was changed into
"mandatory test for leaving the city".
Spot controls.
As soon as enough tests are available.
Earliest: end of coming week🙄
noen.at/wr-neustadt/wi…
#Austria´s Health Minister issued a statement:

WIth the current measures in🇦🇹, reproduction factor for transmission of the wildtype #SARSCoV2 virus would be R~1.
For the #B117 variant it is R~1.2.
(And #B117´s share is 58.4% of current infections)

😕👉📈
ots.at/presseaussendu…
Meanwhile, Austria´s neighbor #Czechia has (finally) accepted offers to send critical patients to three other countries.

Many (doctors, regional officials, citizens,...) had urged for this. Until recently the official reply was "we can do it alone"
#Czechia has received ~30.000 doses of #COVID19 vaccine from other european states.

This will certainly be appreciated, as doses are also scarce in the donating countries.

But a large delivery of vaccines might soon arrive from somewhere else: from China
In the past 2 weeks, #Moselle´s (France) incidence has dropped from ~310 to ~260, despite the high circulation of the #B1351 variant.

Conicidently,
school holidays had started, 2 weeks ago (February 20)...
🤔
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Holidays are over in #Moselle.
School will start again, tomorrow.

Authorities´ plan:
they´re aiming for 11.000 tests per week.

(on a side note: Moselle will have 180.000 students back at #school, tomorrow...
🤨so, a student gets tested every ~16 weeks?)
francebleu.fr/infos/educatio…
On the other hand...
the 2 week decline in #COVID19 case numbers in #Moselle also coincides with a rapid drop in testing.

(while positive rate rose from 5.4 to 6.7%.
That trend is turning: test re-up⤴️, positivity⤵️)
🤔
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
The increase of testing in #Moselle might come from Germany´s entry protocol: if you come from Moselle, you need to show a ´negative´ test result, every time.

Maybe the pool of commuting trans-border workers is remarkably un-infected, so positivity drops?
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
You!
Yeah, you, who start gathering in groups again, now.
And you, who are planning for family assemblies in ~3 weeks!

This "when you are fully vaccinated" story plays in a distant future (for the most of us).
You´re still a vulnerable human, until then!
Today felt like back in childhood days, when everyone tried to be like their idols and imitated them.
Today´s idols are those who are vaccinated and "can do what they like to".

🙄Okay: you´ll behave like you´re not vaccinated, yet - and I´ll accept that I can´t fly like superman
2 days ago,
250 people rallied at #Germany´s border to #Moselle.
They were demonstrating against mandatory #COVID19 tests.

Some found it unfair, that only commuters from #France needed those tests, not the Germans coming to France...
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/grand-est/mose…
Dear Mosellan(e)s:

From tomorrow on, the city of Tübingen (#Germany) introduces mandatory antigen tests for EVERYONE FROM OUTSIDE THE CITY (if they come frome a german district with an incidence higher than 50).

See, it´s fair.
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/31… Image
The city of Tübingen will provide antigen tests for "foreigners" for free.

Visitors from outside the city will need to take the test at one of the city´s official testing stations (don´t bring your "foreign" test result, it won´t be accepted.)
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/31… Image
In #Austria's Wiener Neustadt, everyone will need to show a 'negative' test, if they want to leave the city, from today.

They're planning to have the needed capacity for 15.000 tests per day by saturday (so fines will only start then).

Yesterday,
#France has published official datasets on #Variants´ distribution.

people have been mining them until deep in the night.
They found some interesting (some worrying) details...
During #Moselle´s school holidays (since Feb20), daily cases of all variants have been declining - including #B1351 (!)

BUT NOT #B117.
Even with those restrictions, the ´UK´ variant managed to creep up to a 28.8% share.

(schools have reopened, yesterday)
There *seems to be* some amazing behaviour, for example in Alpes-Maritimes:

(detected) "case numbers decline, even if the share of #B117 goes up".

Maybe this is no miracle or anomaly...
The steady / declining (detected) case numbers in Moselle / Alpes-Maritimes don´t seem to correlate to the share of B117. That´s true.

But they correlate to this:
The rapid decline of test numbers in these prefectures, in this exact period (since Feb20)🤔
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
#Estonia,
with its ~1.3 million inhabitants roughly the size of a large city, sees some serious rise in #COVID19.

(nearly as bad as Czechia)
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
#Estonia´s fresh data shows that the more aggressive British variant (#B117) of the coronavirus is spreading more seriously in Estonia than previously predicted.
Our medical system is in a crisis,...”
kriis.ee/en/news/strict… Image
Ambulance call-outs every 20 minutes, in Tallinn (#Estonia) - "it´s like the intervention peak at New Year´s Eve, but it goes on and on,..."
"The situation will reach meltdown if the general public does not follow the restrictions.
news.err.ee/1608135754/tal…
Tallinn (#Estonia) mayor calls for coronavirus national emergency situation...
news.err.ee/1608135892/tal…
Who would have thought:
the ´South Africa´ variant (#B1351) doing the same thing it did in South Africa,
in Bodø, northern #Norway (just north of the Arctic Circle)...

it´s making young people "really sick".
"Scary".
nrk.no/nordland/koron… Image
"The spread of #COVID19 in #Czechia is slowing down. Reproductive number dropped below R~1 after a month"

A month.
This devastating wave took only one month to build up.

It may receed, soon.
But it leaves hospitals full. Over capacity full.
irozhlas.cz/zpravy-domov/k…
#Czechia has now transferred a first patient from Pardubice (a bit east of the capital Prague) to Racibórz (#Poland).

A ride of 3-4 hours.
Hospitals in entire Czechia are full.
#Denmark´s Health Minister is happy that their current Reproduction number is R~1, even with #B117 being 80% of all new infections.

"That´s a good base for more controlled reopenings"...
#Norway is seeing wide differences in #COVID19 spread behaviour.
The range of regional Reproduction numbers is quite wide from R~0.46 (Innlandet, north of Oslo)
to R~1.54 (! in Oslo)

fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
Here´s how different #variants are distributed across #Norway.

(Oslo "only" has ~50% of #B117, but here, this variant plays a major role.) Image
This is, what #B117 does:

#Norway found, that outbreaks started to occur at kindergartens.
There had hardly been any cases before...
(orange line)

With schools, there had also been outbreaks earlier, with other variants.
But #kindergartens - that´s new.
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
Germersheim (#Germany) invested a lot of time to find the sources of their recent #B117 outbreaks.

Hey, you "no one has ever been infected while shopping" proclaimers:
👇
Major infection source is/was
IN SUPERMARKETS
AND IN FRONT OF THEM!
🧬🛒😮
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
I was quiet about #Moselle, recently.
This might be about to change...

"We have ~60 inpatients,...all are in very serious conditions.
We are reaching very high levels, similar to the first wave."
(Sarreguemines)
radiomelodie.com/actu/15029-sar…
#Italy is adapting to a near #COVID19 future:
Earlier, there simply was 1st and 2nd class on trains.

Now, there are
"COVID-free" trains (everyone needs a test to board it)

and one
"Health train" (for intensive care transports of #COVID19 patients)
ansa.it/english/news/g…
#Italy modified a former "IC" (Interity) train into ICU (Intensive Care Unit) on rails.

with 21 ventilation beds
negative pressure rooms
generators and back-up
oxygen supply
beds for medical staff

It can be deployed all over Europe, if the need arises.
fsitaliane.it/content/fsital…
From the outside, Italy´s new "ICU train" doesn´t look as fancy as the TGV "Medic trains", used by France, last year.

But the inside is far beyond the make-shift approach (brancards strapped onto seats), used in earlier emergency situations.

Have a look!
While entire #France´s positivity rate stays stable at ~7%,
#Moselle sees its positivity abruptly coming down to ~4.3%.

🤔that´s noteworthy. Image
3 senators in #France have written to #Germany and the french Senate to propose a plan:

they want to do away with the regular testing for border crossing commuters.
"Just vaccinate them all !"
actu.fr/societe/corona…
#Ireland:
"The decrease is slower than in the last wave - that's because of the dominance of #B117 and it's higher transmissibility"

"In the recent days, we saw an uptick in cases. We're looking into that, whether it might be the beginning of something."
#Ireland:
"Around the time that any increase of mobility might have had its impact, we're seeing numbers that are somewhat higher than we would expect."

(Carefully saying: more 'activity' last week might show up in more cases, today.)
This is,
what´s causing concern to Ireland.

That tiny notch at the end of the curve.
It could be nothing. Or it could be a very bad sign.
gov.ie/en/collection/… Image
This is,
what could be driving the new increase in case numbers in Ireland:

"In early January, only 50% worked at their workplace. Now that number is up to ~60%.
It´s marginal changes like this, that could have a huge impact."
(+schools, but not so much).
assets.gov.ie/126432/231a772… Image
#Ireland has a clear idea, who is driving the pandemic.
"It´s the mobile adults".

So the deal is:
children shall all be back to school, next week.
But their parents are urged to stay at home.

🤔that´s an ...interesting approach.
rte.ie/news/newslens/… Image
While Ireland worries about a tiny "Notch" and tries to balance its way through the reopenings,
#Germany sees a veritable jump and doesn´t seem to care too much.
(that graph is not very accurate, but shows the picture. Today´s 7-day-incidence is ~72.)
ig.ft.com/coronavirus-ch… Image
#Germany´s current "leading" #COVID19 hotspot (Greiz) claims:

"that increase comes from school & kindergarten kids.
We never tested them before.
Now that we test them, they make up 30% of all new cases".🙄

(Incidence is ~330 in Greiz district)...
mdr.de/video/mdr-vide…
It was quiet,
so you thought, everything would be fine, in #France?
🧐
"the situation in the region around Paris is especially worrying. The hospitals see admissions close to the peaks of last year´s March".
Image
#France:
"Major transfers of patients to other regions are currently being prepared and could take place as early as this weekend.
We are talking about dozens or even hundreds of patients who could be evacuated from Ile-de-France..."
😕
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/paris-ile-de-f…
#France has a suspicion:
the ´South Africa´ and ´Brazil´variants are under control at the moment.

But the ´UK´ variant #B117 is the most common, right now.
And it seems to cause more severe cases, quickly filling up the hospitals.
bfmtv.com/sante/olivier-…
Something interesting is happening in #Moselle, the #B1351 hotspot in Fance:

Cases are decreasing.
Even the share of the ´Brazil´ variant is getting smaller.

Current measures seem to work...
but not against #B117, which is accelerating its rise.
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
#Germany seems to slowly wake up from its "we´ve got it under control" dream.

"Incidence in under 15´s is increasing"
"We see an increase in outbreaks at kindergartens"
"This could be caused by #B117"

(but reopening plans don´t change, for now...)
rnd.de/politik/wieler…
Yes, the outbreaks are starting in #Germany.
One of many examples:
#Karlsruhe opened a basic school service ~2 weeks ago.
Now an outbreak at a kindergarten (18 infected) is causing concern: some older siblings are students at a larger school, nearby...
bnn.de/karlsruhe/karl…
For #Karlsruhe, any further increase in cases would bring the risk to cross the magic "incidence 100" line.

Shops would need to close again (after just 2 weeks open), night curfew may be imposed,...
gesundheitsatlas-bw.de/dataviews/repo… Image
In #Germersheim,
incidence has gone down far enough, to try to reopen some institutions.
But one thing will remain:
Masks in certain outdoor spaces.

"We found that the #B117 variant is capable to infect very fast - even in outdoor settings"(!!!)
😮😷
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
#France has already started #COVID19 patients´ transfers from full hospitals.
After several interregional transfers,
patients are now also being brought to #Belgium...

We thought it would be over - now it suddenly looks like last year´s nightmare, again.
#Germany´s RKI has published an official outlook.

We´re in week 10,
(real life reports only available up to week 9, so far, marked with an "x")

We´re running into a wall,
end of next week.

4 weeks from now,
it will be worse than the last wave.
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
RKI´s "bad case scenario" for #Germany is depending on our behaviour.
Of course, it won´t stay the same:

- tests are scarce
- no concept for isolation / surveillance
- vaccination chaos,...
+opening more schools on monday

We´re about to make it worse.
br.de/nachrichten/ba…
The #COVID19 transfers from Paris region to other parts of #France has begun.
3 ICU patients are flown out, this morning.
But more will be on the way, soon. Saying is: 300-400 may need to go.
The idea behind the patients transfer sounds like a cold calculation:

Reconfinement of Paris would cause immense economic (and political) damage. It has to be avoided at any cost.

With transfers, hospitals can take in patients and will never become full.
franceinter.fr/amp/politique/… Image
This news on AstraZeneca´s #vaccine and serious effects is making the rounds on the internet, now.

Reading #Norway´s reports,
this might be an unfolding event...
Details from #Norway´s FHI on the 3 healthcare workers:

all 3 have a "very unusual disease picture",
consisting of bleeding,
blood clots (in unusual places), and
low platelet count in the blood.

(these are rather paradoxical symptoms...)
🤨
nrk.no/norge/tre-hels…
Treatment of the 3 healthcare workers is difficult, due to the contradictive symptoms.

Blood clots would call for blood thinning medics.
But the bleeding would be worsened, due to low platelet count in the blood...

"It´s a balancing act".
nrk.no/norge/tre-hels… Image
#Norway´s Health Institute FHI and the Norwegian Medicines Agency have issued an urgent statement on the status of suspected adverse reactions in connection with the #AstraZeneca vaccination, this afternoon...

an.no/fhi-hasteinnka…
#Norway´s authorities are urging everyone who received #AstraZeneca´s vaccine and finds
-small dots of bleeding skin
-small or large black/blue marks
to immediately seek medical attendance.

⚠️"This is severe and can be a sign of decreased platelet count"
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/m… Image
Vaccination can play a good role in #Norway´s fight against #COVID19.

The current surge in cases now mostly happens in the younger population.
(Oslo, for example had vaccinated all nursing home residents in January - with Biontech´s vaccine, I think).
vg.no/spesial/corona/ Image
Knowing that it´s mostly the younger population who gets infected now, makes this graph particulary worrying.

Norway´s #COVID19 case numbers have more than doubled in a week.
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
Also worrying:
Hospital admissions in #Norway are definitely increasing.

(remember: it´s mostly the younger population, who gets infected, now).
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
#Norway´s communities are now drastically changing their approach on #COVID19:

(Aukra community)
"All passengers who had used #school bus No.3 and their families have to #quarantine."

For how long?
"We´ll tell you later..."
aukra.kommune.no/aktuelt/oppdat… Image
#France is speeding up patient transfers in an attempt to keep Paris region from collapsing without lockdown.

6 patients per day.
And TGV🚄"Medic Trains" will be used again, end of next week...
#France´s education minister is thinking about closing school canteens.
"Canteens are the weak (infection) point in the school day"

It may sound logical, but it also implies a huge social problem.
And that´s one of the reasons why schools were kept open.
bfmtv.com/sante/jean-mic…
#Norway´s FHI says
"We have a problem"
Infections among Oslo region´s youth is growing so fast, that they fear they won´t be able to trace all contacts, soon.

"~We urgently need to get this under control. They infect their families..."
abcnyheter.no/nyheter/norge/…
"It´s the young ones (in kindergarten and school)", said #Germany´s Greiz district, 3 days ago.

Their #COVID19 incidence was ~300, back then.
Today it shot straight up to ~500.
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
Read the headline and was delighted.
Then I read the text.

It feels like the typical horror setting, where evil is quietly watching its unheeding prey...
😨
you may shout at the screen,
but the characters won´t take note.
😫
rte.ie/news/coronavir…
Ireland:
#COVID19 cases are rising steadily

73% of the new cases were people under 45.
Median age of those newly diagnosed was 29.

"What's happened really is... clearly people are coming together more and not so much frightened of the hospital figures"🙄
Image
#COVID19 seems to be out of control in #Oslo.
Although the city has already applied strict measures, case numbers have doubled within a week.

Probably behind this: #B117 and its effect in the younger population.

(🤔we´ve seen this before..., in Portugal)
vg.no/spesial/corona… Image
Just like it was in Portugal, Norway decided that
"the last thing to close would be the #schools".

#Oslo now says:
it may now be the time to apply that last resort measure.

They´re thinking about closing schools for weeks.
nrk.no/nyheter/stenge…
In January:
Portugal had done everything they were willing to do. Case numbers still didn´t go down.

So they took to the final measure:
closing all schools.

(not only reducing school activity, but also keeping parents at home)
A week later, cases dropped
arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
Today,
#Portugal´s elementary schools reopen again.

1.5 million additional people will be having contacts again (students, teachers, parents, staff,...)

There´ll be some testing for teachers.
Masks? "Washable FFP2" - use will be voluntary for students.
publico.pt/2021/03/15/soc…
#Germany´s Drug Administration (#PEI) advises to halt all current #AstraZeneca vaccinations.

They found a "peculiar accumulation" of cases with
-bloodclots in unusual places (brain/stroke)
-low blood platelets
-bleeding

(exactly what Norway said earlier)
pei.de/DE/newsroom/hp… Image
Also not suspended:
Opening of more schools in #Germany, today.

elementary schools with
no distancing
no masks
test? organize yourself.

New: 11/12 year olds are also back in full class lessons, with "distancing, where possible"
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
There was the mayor of Pirmasens (#Germany),
saying:

"~We may have the highest incidence (~154) in our state, BUT 44% OF NEW CASES ARE FROM OUTBREAKS AT KINDERGARTENS.

SHOPS have nothing to do with that, so we´ll leave them open" (+no curfew, etc)
🤨
pirmasens.de/rathaus/presse… Image
Apparently, the state (Rhineland-Palatinate) wasn´t in favor of #Pirmasens mayor´s "individual interpretation" of lockdown rules.
😠
They now ordered the city to strictly follow the prescribed lockdown scheme...💢
rheinpfalz.de/lokal/pfalz-ti…
The mayor of (nearly locked down again) #Karlsruhe (Germany):
"closing shops and museums would be wrong - those venues have good hygiene concepts... most infections happen in workplaces, kindergartens and schools. They need more testing..."
bnn.de/karlsruhe/karl…
#Germersheim district (Karlsruhe´s neighbor) is already experimenting with kids testing themselves at one elementary school in Ottersheim.

Today, they really found something...
rpr1.de/nachrichten/re…
"There´s one positive case at Ottersheim elementary school. All contacts are being quarantined, now.

(Not clear if the case is a kid (testing themselves) or someone else...)
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
One week ago,
Germersheim warned that transmission of current infections had not only happened in supermarkets, but also (mostly) in the settings surrounding increased shopping mobility.
(like: smalltalk, if you bump into a friend)...
kreis-germersheim.de/kv_germersheim… Image
Medical manager of #Karlsruhe´s Clinic Center judges:
"we have an incidence ~100.
People running into shops like crazy.
This will not go well..."

They already see slightly rising hospital admissions and prepare for (far) worse.
ka-news.de/region/karlsru…
Meanwhile,
#Pirmasens´ webpage shows no sign of giving in to state´s demand to strictly follow lockdown rules and close all shops.

"Shops will remain open"

No further statement on the website.
but the mayor gave an interview to the press (next tweet)...
pirmasens.de/rathaus/presse… Image
#Pirmasens Mayors´ views:

"It wasn´t the shops who caused the outbreaks, it was kindergartens"
"Only one bed in our intensive care is occupied"
"The sick are mostly young people and they have mild symptoms"

"If it gets worse, we´ll take measures"...

🤔
tagesspiegel.de/politik/auf-de…
The comparison to addictive behaviour again:
Seems, we´re in the denial phase:

"It´s not as bad as you all say"
"You all don´t know what´s working for me"
"I promise (again): if it gets worse, I´m gonna stop with it"

It´s usually the path to a crash.
A completely different approach:
#Tübingen enjoys low case numbers (incidence <50 so far).
They have introduced mandatory "entry testing".

They will now open outdoor gastronomy, cinemas, theatres (with entry tests), as a trial.
🧐(worth to keep an eye on)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Tübingen´s concept:
EVERYONE (including local citizens)
who wants to visit shops in the city´s center, go to the hairdresser, cinema, etc
needs to present a "ONE DAY TEST PASS".

Tests are available for free at 6 test stations.
(rapid antigen tests)
tuebingen.de/tagesticket#/3… Image
#Tübingen (Germany) is now trying to live what #Netherlands´ employers´ association dreams of, since November:

The concept of a "tested society":
Phase 3 - nearly everything will reopen to those who show a daily ´negative´ test.
vno-ncw.nl/nieuws/ingrid-…
In the #Netherlands,
the "tested society" idea regained speed, as it became public that ~26 million rapid antigen tests were left unused.

(Public health service said:
"~No way we´re doing these tests for reopening.
Our job is strictly anti-pandemic.")
🤷
trouw.nl/zorg/ggd-onze-…
An urgent bulletin from #France's Health Directorate:

a new #Variant has been identified in several cases in Brittany.
It's unclear what it does, yet.

But it is so heavily 'mutated', that standard PCR tests won't find it...
With no #AstraZeneca, there´ll be no vaccination for teachers.

"We have no vaccine and rising incidence rates with new variants..." - the mayor of #Dortmund (Germany) drew a line, this morning:
"...there´s no sense in this. We will close schools tomorrow"
dortmund.de/de/leben_in_do…
State´s response to Dortmund:

"I can´t imagine closing schools with an incidence below 100.
If #Dortmund can´t think of anything better than closing schools at an incidence of 72, my ministry will reject this, so kids can go to school tomorrow..."

#Dortmund´s incidence may be "just 72", today.
But the "magic 100" doesn´t seem too far away...

Just note the near vertical increase today: 95 new cases.
(a week ago the day´s count was 49).
dortmund.de/de/leben_in_do… Image
#Dortmund just announced that today´s 95 new cases are rising their incidence to ~79,6...
📈⤴️
dortmund.de/de/leben_in_do… Image
Nevertheless, #Dortmund posts:

"Upon order of the state, we will provide in-classroom-teaching tomorrow.
We still think schools should be closed and will come forward with new measures..." Image
How´s it going in #Pirmasens (different state)?

"State forces us to enact protective measures"

The details in this agitative text...
oh, just read it yourself. I should have stopped after reading the headline.
pirmasens.de/leben-in-ps/bu… Image
A hospital in Oslo (#Norway) is investigating the death of one healthcare worker after vaccination with #AstraZeneca:

"The results are starting to come in, and we're starting to get circumstantial evidence that there may be a connection".
(no conclusion)
tv2.no/nyheter/138919…
Extraordinary:

Germany´s #Greiz district´s incidence still increases.
This morning:
525.7
 (highest in #Germany)

It was ~70, 4 weeks ago.

There´s a very special explanation for this...
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
#Greiz:
"4 weeks ago, we had diffuse cases. No source was known.
Then we realized: many education personnel was among the infected.
So we tested the kids.

In a group of 4-6 year olds: all of them were infected.
Their parents too. And their contacts."
And while Greiz found that kids infect their families and family´s contacts,
a court in Baden-Württemberg just cancelled the ´#Quarantine for Contacts of Contacts´.

"There´s no sufficient proof the infection chain
kid A->kid B->family B
really happens"
🙄
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
The Mayor of Dortmund (who had been forced to open schools) announced today:

- There´s still no vaccination
- We received tests - exactly: ONE test per kid (for a 2 week period)
He still wants to close schools
"We need to prevent a situation like UK had"
dortmund.de/de/leben_in_do… Image
Flixbus thinks it´s a good idea to restart its tourbusses in #Germany, next week.

Only restriction: passengers will need to wear a mask.

no distancing,
no testing

(note: in a plane, 2 rows around a case would be considered "close contacts", mask or not)
flixbus.de/streckennetz-u… Image
#Norway just found out:
7 infected people had been taking a #bus, last sunday.
🚌
They shared the 4 hour ride with 64 passengers.
Masks are also mandatory on busses, there.
😷
(We might soon see, how well it worked...)
nrk.no/sorlandet/syv-…
#Denmark says
"the share of #B117 has now reached ~93% of all new infections..."
files.ssi.dk/covid19/virusv… Image
#Denmark calculated the effect of reopened stores and outdoor activities since March 1 (grey line)

Now they calculated how much worse it would be, if they also opened boarding schools and highschools (red):
5% worse.

left: cases
right: hospital admission
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Note: #Demark also calculated a version with slightly less effective measures (Rref 0,8 instead of 0,75, like when not everyone follows the rules...)

🙄well, the good news is:
it may still be over by ~July.
ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/fi… Image
The European Commission is "strongly encouraging" all member states to install extensive #wastewater surveillance for #SARSCoV2 tracers (and Variant detection!).

"It can provide important information". The goal is a european outbreak early warning network
ec.europa.eu/environment/pd… Image
Meanwhile,
researchers in #Germany still need to prove that wastewater surveillance could be useful in fighting #SARSCoV2.

Months ago, apllication started in other countries.
German authorities still claim:
"it´s just experimental studies, not usable"
🤦
dw.com/de/vertane-cha…
#Norway says:
"we think we have found the reason for the incidents with #AstraZeneca vaccinated patients:

Sometimes, the body´s immune response triggers antibodies to attack blood platelets. That might then form blood clots..."
nrk.no/norge/ous-fors…
While Europe´s EMA gives green light to use #AstraZeneca´s vaccine again, #Norway has it still on hold:
"We want to be sure - and we do have other vaccine options, too."
nrk.no/norge/ema-gav-…
So far,
#Norway has had
84.025 known #COVID19 infections,
648 of them died.

120.000 #AstraZeneca vaccinations,
2 of them died.

But they think they have enough other, less risky vaccine options,
so the decision is easy.
vg.no/spesial/corona/ ImageImageImage
Helpless.
🤷
Baden-Württembergs "Quarantine for Contacts of Contacts" was created to get rapidly spreading outbreaks from school settings under control.

A court cancelled it, yesterday.
The state now "recommends" to "watch for symptoms" instead.
🤦
…zialministerium.baden-wuerttemberg.de/de/service/pre… Image
Schrozberg in Baden-Württemberg is a tiny town (5.800 citizens).
They registered an incidence above 1.000, today.
Epicenter: the local #kindergarten.

8 staff got infected,
kids brought it into their families
and then it spread through town...
🤷
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Hopeless.
🙄
Most trains from Paris to (virtually anywhere) are booked out.

Everyone wants to escape the new confinement...
🚄🏃🏃‍♂️🏃‍♀️💨
to some place where you can forget about the nasty virus (or the fact that you might have carried it with you...)
The trains to the north of #France may not be in such high demand - that area will also be under "#reconfinement".

For one month.
bfmtv.com/societe/carte-… Image
#France has calculated sharply:

- some more shops will close
- but curfew will start 1 hour later
- people need a self-declaration to go out
- but they can do so in a 10 km radius
- schools stay open
- highschools split classes

That´ll do the trick.
🙄
paris.fr/pages/covid-19…
Pointless.

#France´s plan to simply "empty" hospitals in Paris region by transferring patients doesn´t work:

Few patients are "fit enough" to be transported.
Some are too heavy.
Some relatives didn´t give their agreement.

Transfers by TGV cancelled, now
rtl.fr/actu/bien-etre…
France´s education minister didn´t expect a quick calculating host:
"Current testings in classes say we have a contamination rate around 0.5%"😇

"THAT´S AN INCIDENCE of 500!
HIGHER THAN THE NATIONAL VALUE!
THIS MEANS IT´S CIRCULATING BIG-TIME IN SCHOOLS!"
bfmtv.com/politique/gouv… Image
Researchers in Germany/Austria confirm Norway´s findings:
#AstraZeneca may activate thrombocytes in the blood, causing them to coagulate and form clots.

They also say "we have an antidote to treat this.
Vaccination can continue..."
ndr.de/nachrichten/me…
In #Norway, last sunday, there were those 7 bus passengers who turned out to have been infected with #B117, during their 4 hour trip...

Luckily, that bus line is the ONLY one with distancing AND obligatory mask measures.
(Line 170, Hovden-Kristiansand).
akt.no/aktuelt/gjelde… Image
You know what?
The mask wearing and distancing on the #bus didn´t help.

During their 4 hour trip, the infected passengers managed to spread #B117 infections on the bus.
So far, 3 more passengers were found to have been infected during that trip...
#Norway
kristiansand.kommune.no/tema/korona/ko… Image
Now we know that masks and distancing don´t provide perfect protection on a #bus,
we will soon see how it works with NO distancing, just masks...:

The #B117-infected had also been using local busses,
where "shoulder to shoulder" is allowed
(#Norway)
kristiansand.kommune.no/aktuelt/2021/k… Image
#Greiz district (Germany) says the sudden surge in cases among kids is because they just started to test kids from kindergartens and schools, a few weeks ago.

Now, the incidences are:
Age 0-4: ~1.000
Age 5-9: ~1.000

The youngest ones are spreading it.
survstat.rki.de/Content/Query/… Image
That´s significant.
Seems #Japan doesn´t trust other nations to get the pandemic under control until July.

(I wonder if China will be excluded as well, somehow I don´t think so...)
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
A silent, but significant change:

From tomorrow on,
#Germany will lift the "Area of Variant Concern" classification for #UK and #Ireland.

Simply because #B117 is now the dominating variant in Germany as well.

(UK, IRL will be classified as "risk areas")
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Norway:
last sunday, a #bus tour (line 170, Hovden-Kristiansand) started with 7 infected travellers entering the busses.

During the 4 hour ride (with obligatory distancing & masks) they passed their #B117 infection to (current status:) 8 other passengers
kristiansand.kommune.no/tema/korona/ko… Image
If you think you're done by vaccinating the "vulnerable":
the virus will thrive in the youth.

"We are already seeing the start of it"

"~If we (unlike other nations) accept #COVID19 to become endemic, we won't be able to go anywhere else in the world"
#Dortmund´s mayor still tries to close his #schools, due to "lack of tests for students, missing vaccinations for staff".

The state rejected another appeal, yesterday, since the city´s incidence was "below 100"
(it was ~97.7)
Since #Germany´s Baden-Württemberg gradually reopened #schools ~one month ago, #COVID19 among children is strongly increasing.

"They represent 20% of all new infections, now"

swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
Last evening, in #Berlin:

1.000 guests.
Each of them tested with a rapid (antigen) test at the entrance,
by 45 medical staff.
Distancing. Masks.

One #Concert. 75 minutes.

It can be done,
if you have enough tests (and staff) to spare...
rbb24.de/kultur/thema/c…
The "tested society" in Tübingen (Germany) is still holding on:
while Tübingen district sees increasing case numbers (sending surrounding towns back into restrictions), Tübingen city itself has an incidence ~30.

Shops, Cinemas, etc still open (with test).
tagblatt.de/Nachrichten/In…
#Karlsruhe clinic management:
"~100% of all new #COVID19 patients are now #B117 cases.
The number of patients has doubled"

(2 weeks ago, they prepared to reduce COVID stations to low level - now they scale up to "LEVEL3 full pandemic response", again)
corona.karlsruhe.de/aktuell/x Image
~´The spread of B117 was dramatic, in the last 2 weeks.´

"We expect ICU admissions to rise considerably, soon.
#B117 is now hitting the younger ones, we see them in ICU, with ages starting below 50."

"People will not necessarily die - but will need ICU."
The news in #Germany is currently reporting about a study that says

"the incoming third #COVID19 wave will get worse than the waves before, if we don´t take measures".

What they don´t say:
HOW BAD it would get
(although the study is detailed on this)
🧐
Here´s the link to #Germany´s "Modus Covid Report":

docs.dpaq.de/17481-nagel202…

Their outlook:
Green line: if we keep behaving like today, Germany will experience a peak incidence of⚡️1.000~1.500⚡️around April~June.

Orange line: what would have happened without recent easing.
😠 Image
*IF* schools would fully reopen, with practically no testing (like today) Germany´s incidence might go up above 2.000.

"In reality, this would not happen. Politicians would notice and stop this immediately...", says the report.

(🤔Okay, researchers - I´ll trust your expertise!) Image
This is (unfortunately) an excessively optimistic model:
🙄
*IF* Germany would manage to test every schoolkid
once a week
AND EVERY WORKER, 3 times/week
AND they would reliably quarantine, if they were ´positive´...
#Germany´s incidence would STILL go higher than the last wave
😯 Image
Here´s an online-simulator,
showing the effects of single / combined measures on #Germany´s (Berlin´s) future incidence rate.

Try your best - save Berlin !

(note: this model assumes there´s unlimited cash and your citizens will do everything you say)
covid-sim.info/2021-03-17/tes… Image
3 (self-) tests per week.
#Austria has introduced it in some schools, a week ago.
bmbwf.gv.at/Themen/schule/… Image
#Austria is currently being flooded with #COVID19 tests.

(note: Only official PCR/Antigen tests counted here.

No self-tests / tests at schools. They don´t qualify as "entry test" for a visit at the hairdresser etc as well...)
orf.at/corona/daten/o… Image
The effect of #Austria´s testing-efforts:

"Despite having opened shops and schools...
our increase is only linear, not exponential"

😕
orf.at/corona/daten/o… Image
A view into #Germany´s Tübingen (daily testing required to enter shops, cinemas etc in the city):
"Last saturday, we did 7.000 rapid tests.
This took 100 helpers."😮

Tübingen city´s incidence is stable at ~30.

"The virus will come - but we will see it!"
deutschlandfunk.de/deutschland-in…
One business owner in #Germany found a loophole.
He dedicated 60% of his shop to (officially but not really) sell toilet paper.
So - while others have to close - it is regarded as "essential store" and is free to sell byproducts, like clothes...
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
My admiration for the "innovative" shop owner is limited.

There´s a reason why all "non-essential" shops needed to close, there.
Cases exploded over the weekend.
Authorities urged "to avoid all contact":

"The next wave isn´t coming - we´re right in it!"
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
Hey folks,
those who argue "we need to not look at the incidence rate alone"...

somehow, the curve for #COVID19 admissions to intensive care in #Germany is bending steeply upwards.

Got any suggestions for a better indicator for how serious things are ?
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
I just hit the browser´s refresh button and got shocked:

😱#France! What´s up?
Suddenly there´s a new colour for "incidence >400"
and the incidence >250 areas have grown a lot!

🤔You had a lot of data delay and piled it all into today, didn´t you?🙄
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
But then again...
when this sudden increase in #France is because of delayed data - then why is there no sign of that many missing cases in recent days ?

😯you mean... it´s really this serious ?!
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Multiple sources now saying:

#COVID19 incidence in Ile-de France has already matched the peak of the last wave"...

that went so fast😟
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
In Vienna (#Austria),
intensive care units are crowded with #B117 patients.

"It´s more aggressive.
Those who get seriously sick, do get seriously sick very fast."

And they are younger than before -
the average age of patients in ICU is now: 52 years.
orf.at/stories/320622…
#Norway confirms:
with #B117, the risk of needing hospital treatment is 2.6-fold higher than earlier, with the old variant.

In their current experience, this applies to ages from as young as 20 years...
fhi.no/nyheter/2021/b… Image
A little Easter-egg in #Germany´s new #COVID19 resolution:

Masks will become mandatory
in private cars🚗😷😷

(but only if the area you´re currently driving in has an incidence above 100)🙄
bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/… Image
A hollow egg:

Germany leaves schools & kindergartens open as they are now,
only "aiming to do 2 tests per week, as soon as possible"...

(still: there´s the absurd quarantine rule that only direct contacts will go into quarantine, while family members (parents, siblings) don´t). Image
This "Companies´ Self Obligation for Testing"-egg is smelly.

Experiences, so far:
🙃
"Tests are free at the pharmacy - go there, if you want one".
"Tests? Unless we´re not forced, we won´t even think about it"

(How about sharing 3 tests a week between:
office/public/self-test?) Image
Latest numbers from #France were not a statistical mistake.
😟
Hospitals in #Paris region are already full with severe #COVID19 cases.
"We are running straight into the wall...
Everywhere, it's full, full, full."
bfmtv.com/sante/on-va-dr…
#France:
"The French hospital system could face an ´unprecedented violent shock´
in about three weeks,

if the country fails to curb its vertiginous rise in #COVID19 cases".

(Note: the current half-hearted ´confinement´ is in place for only ~3 days now.)
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
How the pandemic currently feels:

Trying the best, to keep people at bay,
detectors are blaring full alert -
and still there´s the one guy who thinks it´s fun to try and roast ham&eggs on the lava flow.
(and is kind of surprised as his pan gets swallowed)
ImageImage
Whooo, folks - our state has just issued the first report on #COVID19 cases at schools !
"out of 67.500 classes, only 177 had to completely stop in-class-teaching, due to infections.
(in further 646 cases only single persons were separated from the class)"
km-bw.de/,Lde/startseit…
Fun fact:
in Baden-Württemberg, there´s no planned routine-#testing of schoolkids, so far.

It is still "being prepared" to maybe start in ~3 weeks.
(Likely most of the cases they´ve found so far were found as close contacts of a symptomatic case...)
km-bw.de/site/pbs-bw-km… Image
This is for #France´s Paris region.
It´s not the #COVID19 case incidence.
This is already the occupation of hospitals with critical care patients.
😟
(posted by the Deputy Director of the Regional Health Authority)
Paris region´s Regional Health Authority Director adds:

~"Right now the 20-50 year olds have an incidence of 700~800.
This is not about ´the vulnerable´ anymore -
it´s about all of us."

Intensive care sees more & more young ones, without preconditions...
#Denmark announced a bold plan:
Danish society will fully open up,
once everyone over the age of 50 has received a first dose of vaccine.

(that was before France said they´re seeing "more & more under 50" taken to intensive care, today)

(autotranslated)
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0… Image
Even before vacciantion of ages 50+, #Denmark wants to reopen more (April 6).

A simulation run by Denmark´s #SSI shows:
this will increase hospital admisssions.

Seems they hope #B117 will react to seasonal effects with 75% of last year´s effect...
🙄
ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/… Image
#Austria sees:
vaccination works. (older age groups are not as affected as earlier anymore)

But also:
highest #COVID19 incidences have now moved into age groups of 5-24 years !
Image
There was nothing I wanted to tweet about that Easter-Total-Shutdown "plan" of Germany.

Now it has evaporated.
It has left us with nothing.

Not enough tests
Not enough vaccines
And no plan at all.

Just finger-pointing.
That won´t help.
#Norway´s FHI says:

~"With #B117, we will never get reproduction number R below 1, again
We brought it down from 1.6 to 1.1 - that´s all we could do.

The only way to get out of this now is vaccinating."
nrk.no/norge/fhi-tror…
While #Germany failed to install a 5 day "Easter-break" shutdown,

#Belgium has just chosen "the short pain" of an "Easter-break" of 4 weeks with:

Schools closed
Hairdressers closed
Curfew
Leasure travel prohibited
(was never part of Germany´s ´plan´🤷)
hln.be/dossier-corona…
As official, as it´s gonna get.
#Germany´s RKI:

"#COVID19 infections are on the rise.
Especially in children, who in turn spread infections and cause clusters."

~"In case of cases in kindergarten: close it down rapidly. Avoid spreading it to families!
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#Germany´s courts are very busy with people with an "individual sense of righteousness", at the moment.

Cancelled today:
the 14 day quarantine for returnees from Areas of #Variant Concern.
(because "There´s no scientific prove that this is necessary...")
…tshof-baden-wuerttemberg.justiz-bw.de/pb/,Lde/909554… Image
#Germany´s churches (just ONE example below) were ´totally surprised´ that there was the idea to ask them the favour to maybe not hold easter masses in presence, this year.

"Naah... we don´t want to change.
It all worked fine on X-Mas."
(note: ante #B117)
Now that #Germany´s ´total-shutdown plan´ has imploded altogether,
churches are relieved:

"We certainly will go on with in-presence masses, while following all the measures we have installed."

That certainly sounds very reasonable...
If you look in Detail, the catholic church is really well prepared:

"~Everyone participating (in/near choir performance) needs to sign a liability exclusion.
😇
Be informed that despite measures, an outbreak could cause authorities to quarantine you".
drs.de/fileadmin/user… Image
To my delight,
there are also several constructive proposals of local church chapters, all over #Germany.

One example:
a testing center in a church hall
operating since February.

Couldn´t we combine this with some very special, individual ceremony? No?🤷
stuttgart-evangelisch.de/meldungen/coro…
#Japan feels safe.
The last #COVID19 wave has receeded so far that the State of Emergency around Tokyo was lifted.

But one foreign "guest", is not sticking to the rules and disturbs the harmony: #B117.
The ´UK´ variant´s spread is showing up, now...
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
In recent days, the detected cases of #B117 are rapidly surging, in #Japan.

Some clusters in childcare have been found.
26.4% of all #Variant cases are in children and teens, right now.

(so far, Japan is only checking 5-10% of cases for variants)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
The mayor of #Sapporo says they can already see #B117 affecting hospitals.
"Earlier, about 10% of the infected needed urgent care. That number is now ~33%, due to the new variant".
uhb.jp/news/single.ht… Image
Some of #Japan´s prefectures already see rapidly rising cases, again.
While Tokyo lifted it´s State of Emergency, #Miyagi prefecture (further north) declared it´s own Emergency.

For obvious reasons...
sendai-nct.ac.jp/20210319-2/ Image
One city in #Japan´s Ehime prefecture is especially worried.
A sudden surge in cases,
60 cases in Matsuyama today alone. An all-time record, there.

nippon.com/en/japan-data/… Image
#Japan´s Ehime governor:

"We are already in the fourth wave.
It´s a completely new wave of mutant #variants, not just a rebound.
It is pushing to a scale that we never have experienced before"

This would be a "de facto declaration of emergency".
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
The reason for Matsuyama´s major #B117 cluster?
Keep in mind: there´s no lockdown in Japan.
Bars are open.
And cases have been low for quite a while - so it´s okay to have some fun.
No?
(The governor explicitly mentioned that those venues were cooperative)
Image
Why not have some fun, if you can?

#Germany´s (tiny) Saarland state has an incidence around 70 and receives ~80.000 doses of Biontech´s vaccine, to "protect it from #B1351 in neighboring Moselle" (which hasn´t spread much, so far).

They made a plan, now
experience.arcgis.com/experience/478… Image
Saarland is planning its escape from lockdowns.

In less than 2 weeks
"cinemas, theatres, etc will reopen. You will have BBQ with your friends (note: regional important tradition!), sports will resume."

They´ll have daily free tests for their population.
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/saarland/lande…
#Saarland´s head of state:

"We´re one of the best in testing and #vaccinating. Maybe that´s why we´re not as bad off as the rest of #Germany"...

Rest of Germany:
🙄🤨😠...
😡Hey Saarland. You received 80.000 doses of Biontech vaccine from our emergency supply.

Be kind and at least don´t boast about yourselves having BBQ parties due to that !
Those 80.000 Biontech doses were meant to be used in companies with commuting workers from #Moselle (to stop the #B1351 risk)!

Saarland - don´t tell those workers you want them to poke their noses with PCR tests every 2 days, while you´re partying...
🤬
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/saarland/lande…
🤔
Seems people from Moselle have not yet found out about the "trick" at the base of Saarland´s "grand reopening" plan...

(The article is very neutral)

Ah - maybe they´re busy with other problems, like:
their region is running out of health personnel...
"Due to the degrading situation, #Moselle now calls students to help with treating #COVID19 patients in medical centers"
"The tension in hospitals will become very strong in the coming weeks"

(Vive la solidarité, #Saarland 🙄)
actu.fr/societe/corona…
And now,
there´s the rumour that #Germany will classify entire #France as "High Incidence Risk Area".

(it would apply to countries with an incidence of 200 for more than 7 days - which France had for ~4 weeks, now...
and a high risk of spreading.)
Statement from #France´s Health Minister on the national #COVID19 situation:

"We are seeing an increased risk of needing intensive care in the age groups from 15 to 75".

(´Quinze´...
That´s fifteen. Not Fifty.
Really.)

"This is due to emerging variants"
Regional President of #France´s region Grand-Est:

"I´ll leave this here:
03/11: 27 classes closed
03/18: 355 classes closed

So we could say this is beginning to be a thing."
#COVID19
The "no-COVID" group is leaving its remarks on Germany´s current state.
(that´s the part I´ll read over and over again, today)

And there´s also a suggested "toolbox" with 9 elements to manage the pandemic well.

nocovid-europe.eu/assets/doc/202… Image
Today,
#Ireland´s mandatory hotel quarantine will come into force.

It´s far from perfect.
With private security,
shortened #quarantine after test on 10th day,
etc (all the things that went wrong in AUS & NZ...

But then again: it won´t matter much...🤷
rte.ie/news/2021/0326…
See,
while Victoria & New zealand were fighting to get back to ZERO cases,
#Ireland has just resigned:

"We can´t see any way of going down below 500 cases per day"

So, one more outbreak, caused by leaky hotel quarantine would not have much impact, here🤷
#Ireland is trying its best.

"We have to continue to try.
It is a difficult thing to keep a disease like this at any number without it rising.

The challenge is not alone to get it down but to keep it to 500-600 cases a day."
#Germany:
A state minister´s ´Full-COVID´ solution:

"~Currently, nobody listens to us anymore.
So, we can´t stop the pandemic.

~Maybe later, when people suffer more,
they will be ready to cooperate again~".

🙄
deutschlandfunk.de/michael-kretsc… Image
Foreign Minister of France:

"The reality is: #Germany´s cases explode faster than they expected...
That´s why commuting workers from #France will need a #COVID19 test when entering Germany, next week..."

(🙄 er... well, both isn´t really unexpected)
5 weeks ago, it was already predictable that case numbers in #France would not be brought down.
So all neighboring districts in #Germany prepared a special ruleset.

It will keep cross-border traffic going, while guaranteeing tests
(that´s the theory)...
Substantial changes:

#Germany declares
"all of #France is now regarded as ´High Incidence Risk Area´"

+The status of "Variant Concern Area" was lifted from:
Tyrol (#B1351 seems under control, there)
Slovakia/Czechia (#B117 has already spread in Germany)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
A serious sounding alarm🚨
concerning younger patients,
from #Norway:

"This should be called #COVID20.

Ages 30, 40 are now admitted,
with no underlying disease.

We´re dealing with a completely different virus than the one before.

Take care...🙏"
nrk.no/nyheter/slar-a… Image
The "completely different virus" in Drammen, #Norway had started to infect kids and teenagers, a couple of weeks ago

in schools, during gatherings - youth stuff, you know...

(it won´t touch the seniors, as they were already vaccinated)
drammenkommune.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo… Image
...the teenagers brought the virus home.
It´s #B117.

Once in the home, it will infect everyone, rapidly.

Drammen sees record numbers of infections, these days.
The 30, 40 year olds in hospitals - that´s the parents.

This is, what #B117 does
drammen.kommune.no/om-kommunen/ak… Image
One more thing #B117 will do.

It will trick you into thinking "everything is going to be alright, soon."

Look at #France´s Alpes-Maritimes departement.
Don´t they have huge success in bringing cases down?
From 1000 to 600 daily cases!
Even with #B117!🧐
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
The "success story" may not be sustainable...

While Alpes-Maritimes was able to bring daily cases down from 1.000 to 600, and they nearly eliminated the "old" #COVID19,

#B117 is still pretty much unimpressed by all they can do.
The decrease may end soon.
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
"School classes will be immediately closed, if one case of infection occurs"

(note: applies only to those departements of #France who are already under restrictions due to high incidences.
Everywhere else it would take more infections to close classes🤷)
Depending on perspective,

this is "just a minor mishap" and the most important things in life (the construction schedule) will not be affected...
According to some news reports,
5~10% of the workforce has been detected #COVID19 ´positive´ within recent days.

🤔this "doesn´t affect construction"?
Ah, yes - it´s an innovative company. They´ve surely found a solution...
tagesspiegel.de/berlin/weitere…
The "tested society" in Tübingen (#Germany) allows tested citizens to enter cinemas, cafés, etc. again.

The project is attracting so many people from everywhere, that the city now placed a limit on "day entry passes" (test certificates) for visitors...
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/31… Image
The success of rapid tests as "day entry passes" in Tübingen has now inspired entire regions to demand the same.

Yesterday, 13 cities expressed their intention to do the same...
("regardless of current #COVID19 incidences")
🙄
wertheim.de/startseite/akt… Image
Interestingly,
some cities who demand reopening "regardless of current incidences" are from districts with extreme incidences.🙄

(Example: Schwäbisch Hall)

Although... I´d be fine with having everyone tested regularly and give them a reward🍨🛍️ for it.
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
The idea to reopen huge parts of society,
secured by daily testing is realy attractive.

But you´ll need tests.
Loads of them.

And, as this merchant says,
even with the current demand
"rapid tests will become scarce around April"
🙁🛒
ardmediathek.de/video/swr-aktu… Image
#Brazil:
"In conclusion,
dramatic increases in Case Fatality Rate CFR for #SARSCoV2 infections has been noted
among young and middle-aged adults
in February 2021, after diffusion of #P1 variant across Brazil."
Image
"A 14-day #Lockdown would get us out of this mess..."?🤔

For Germersheim (#Germany) lockdown/school/curfew measures started Feb26.
It brought numbers down.

🧐When measures were eased (~March12) it surged again.

No normality, as long as #B117 is around.
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… Image
Germersheim will now introduce the same measures like 1 month ago, again.

(I agree "just using incidence as an indicator" isn´t wise.
#Germersheim is a good example how non-sensical the "incidence 100" threshold is.

It´s not what they mean, though🤷)
With #France being declared as "High Incidence Risk Area", commuting workers are frantically trying to get their mandatory tests to ´be allowed to cross the border to #Germany´.

Test centers in Alsace are overrun:
"Sorry, we´re booked out for this week"
For many commuting workers from #France it would be legally okay to cross the border to #Germany and THEN take a test...

Ah🙄
okay - This test center in Karlsruhe (#Germany, relatively close to the border) has the next test slots available in...
12 days🥴
corona-schnelltest-zentren.dm.de/webform/C9SIvx… Image
Since March 25,
#Flixbus is really offering tours in #Germany, again.

If you´d like to know details:

"Yes, all our buses circulate air through (some) filters.
And drivers are advised to open both doors during stops, so fresh air can enter"

(🤨??!?)
flixbus.de/service/sicher… Image
Remember those B117 infected travellers who took a 4 hour bus tour in Norway?

They infected several co-travellers on the bus
(even with masks AND obligatory distancing).

That outbreak was traced down to 22 infected, in the "end".
(Good tracking capacity)
kristiansand.kommune.no/tema/korona/ko… Image
An unknowingly infected #bus driver was transporting passengers in #Norway.
All week long.

He always did the Kongsvinger-Hamar tour (~3 hours?).
There´s no registration. But they know 5.615 passengers paid for that ride.

They all are urged to test, now..
mittkongsvinger.no/korona/koronas…
The 5.615 #bus passengers who rode with the infected driver in #Norway are "not regarded as close contacts".

They will not need to quarantine, but are asked to get tested,
if they feel any symptoms...

🙄
elverum.kommune.no/om-oss/aktuelt…
#COVID19
It´s burning through France.

Alpes-de-Haute-Provence departement´s example shows the surge of #B117, while all other variants decline.
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… ImageImageImage
It was ~4 weeks ago,
that #Germany´s heads of states rejected the idea to stay cautious and only open things up, as long as an incidence of 35 would not be surpassed...
tagesspiegel.de/politik/schlap…
Since ~4 weeks ago,
#Germany´s states developped individual interpretations of numbers...

Germany´s incidence doubled:
~69 became ~140

still, there´s digress from applying an "emergency break"...
risklayer-explorer.com/event/100/deta… ImageImageImage
Now, several of #Germany´s heads of states and ministers are in isolation. They had received a "possible infection" alert via their smartphone-app.

They had all participated in a plenary meeting in Berlin, last friday,
(mostly with masks and distancing).
tagesschau.de/inland/tschent…
Germany´s #COVID19 warning-app simply calculates infection risk by ~distance/duration of contact.

Here´s where the delegates were seated during the debate. Members of one group (´Sachsen-Anhalt´) had not all received a warning...
🤔canteen is closed, too.
bundesrat.de/DE/bundesrat/b… Image
Fun fact:
from tomorrow on, the City of #Berlin will demand that everyone who´s participating in indoor meetings (>5 people) has a ´negative´ #COVID19 test.

unless it´s about church, jurisdiction, indoor rallies...
or government and parliament
🤷🤦‍♀️🤷‍♂️🤦🤷‍♀️
berlin.de/rbmskzl/aktuel… Image
Major exploit of Tübingen´s test & entry system:

One shop owner didn´t test his clients. Instead he used 350 test-certificates as a generous giveaway (for untested friends)...

They´re not sure what to do with him.
😡They already named his shop´s location
tagblatt.de/Nachrichten/Fr…
A major setback for #AstraZeneca´s vaccine (and Germany´s vaccination plans):

#Germany´s pharmacological authority found several more cases of blood clots, 9 of them fatal.

As a reaction, several german states have suspended use of this vaccine, again.
tagesschau.de/inland/astraze…
"Unfortunately, we´re not very surprised",
says Norway.

They had already warned about AstraZeneca´s side effects, 2 weeks ago.
They hadn´t resumed using that vaccine (´we have enough other stuff´, they had said).
nrk.no/norge/der-spie…
Yesterday, Germany´s vaccination advisory committee advised that #AstraZeneca´s vaccine should only be used with persons over 60 years.

German states will immediately apply this measure, starting today.
(Some allow voluntary vaccination for younger ones)
rki.de/DE/Content/Kom… Image
#Ireland eases restrictions for fully vaccinated persons.
(Currently, it´s some healthcare personnel and some of the Old...)
#Ireland sees vaccines as the path ´back to freedom´.
Promises were made, yesterday.

That sounded nice.🥳
But after comprehending what the speach said, it was a shock for some...

(reopening would start before basic frontline workers are vaccinated).😧
Image
#Irelands essential workers (like teachers, police,...) had believed they would be given priority for vaccinations, so they would be protected when the reopenening begins.

That seems no longer to be the case.
rte.ie/news/2021/0331…
There´s an outcry in France.
"How dare they?!
Where´s the police?!"
I can see, why there´s no police interfering in the party along the river Saône, in Lyon.

France has a trauma.
(Steve, Nantes)

It will be up to the city´s society to deal with the parties in a way they can all live with.
After #Japan´s "State of Emergency" was lifted, the situation in Osaka was gradually getting worse.
Now the situation became obviously bad.

And the measures are helpless:
"-shorter opening hours for restaurants
-wear masks at restaurants"

#B117
#無力
😟
Image
#Osaka watches in awe,

-how their case numbers tripled in one week,
-how somehow, this time it´s mostly the young, who are affected (10-30 years)
-how restaurant owners argue, that installing plastic screens would ruin the experience for their guests
😧
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
This new wave is made up of variants like #B117.

And it will meet the system, that can never be changed.

The same (non N95) masks,
the same shortened business hours,
that somehow worked last year.

And #Japan´s ranking, pictured below,
where distance has to be earned. Image
Every week, there´s another outbreak on a bus in Norway.
This time it´s the ~1 hour ride Odda-Kinsarvik.
One infected passenger used the bus every day, last week...

The community is now awaiting test results for all other passengers.
bt.no/nyheter/direkt…
Despite regular outbreaks on busses (and bus drivers getting infected or being the source),
Norway´s health directorate has just decided:

Wearing masks shall not be enforced upon bus drivers.
(It would be too dangerous, as their glasses might fog up)🥸🚍
ytf.no/nyheter/bussja…
The unthinkable will happen:
#France will close schools and kindergartens!
School holidays will be synchronized, too.

And the strict rules that were introduced in the 19 hardest hit regions will soon be applied to entire France.

#Lockdown.
For 4 weeks.
Many said it would happen:
#Tübingen´s "test for entry" concept may be forced to stop.

It is being "overrun by non-locals" (who want to enjoy some hours of ´near normal´ life)
And despite daily testing, the city´s incidence is nearing 100, now.
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#Germany´s RKI just dropped the #Quarantine bomb:

their new guidelines define
that being just 10 MINUTES in an aerosol-laden room with an infected person
would send you to quarantine,
even if you were distancing AND EVEN IF YOU BOTH WORE #FFP2 MASKS !!!😷
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Someone opened that critical window, by opening up before vaccines were fully rolled out.
And now, this warning about #B117 in #Ireland:

"In the beginning we thought it was just transmission, but now..."

rte.ie/news/coronavir… Image
That "critical window" for #Ireland would become dangerous, if people would stop to cooperate and enjoy their "success of being invulnerable, soon"...

while, in fact - with just 15% immune at the moment - they are far from having achieved herd immunity.
"When they get it in #France and they get it bad, two or three weeks later it comes to us.”

🤔So #B117 would be running in circles...?
According to #France,
the peak (of infections) will be in 7-10 days.
The peak in hospital ICUs will be end of April.

"And then we will enjoy more freedom in May"...

"Our #Lockdown will have a strong impact - There´s no reason to think otherwise".
From Baden-Württemberg:
Nursing homes and healthcare were driving numbers up during the earlier waves...

That´s over (due to vaccination).

But what´s remaining (workplaces, households, kindergartens (when open)...) is enough to cause another huge wave
🤨gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/DE/Fachinf… Image
From #Berlin´s Subway:

"The subway security guards who issue violation tickets to passengers for not wearing FFP2 masks...

are exempt from wearing any mask during their work"
🙄
A recent study in #Berlin´s subway found:
"there´s very low risk to get infected on the trains. It is well ventilated, people wear masks and they only spend a few minutes on board..."

Well, unless you´re a security guard and spend your workday, there.🤷
bvg.de/de/Aktuell/New… Image
🙄Seems @BVG_Ubahn also uses persuasive tactics to achieve "97 to 99 percent mask discipline"...

😷😷😷😷😷😏😷😷😷😷😷
😷😷😷😷🔪😮😷😷😷😷😷
😷😷😷😷😷😷😷😷😷😷😷 Image
#Ireland has the bold plan to return to full in-school teaching on April 12.

Vaccination for employees with ´high risk´ will only start May 3 (maybe)...

So they "should take extra care".
(it´s your fault if you get infected, then...)
🤬
asti.ie/document-libra… Image
#Berlin:
~"Dear secondary #school teachers,
as y´all know, there´s not enough vaccines for you at the moment.

We would like to thank you cordially for continuing your work for our children´s sake, anyway"
🤷
Image
Trøndelag in #Norway is very proud, today:
they´re the ONLY ´green´ region in all of Europe,
with a 14-day incidence below 25
and positivity rate below 4% !

(they still stay cautious.
They had the same situation in December - and then cases surged...)
nrk.no/trondelag/enes… Image
#Japan's course is set.

There's one priority:
keep infections from surging until enough vaccines for the elderly have arrived.
This might mean: until June.

That's the plan.
And it will stay the plan.
It will not be changed.
#Japan is still sticking to it's 2020 measures:
-restrict restaurant opening hours a bit
-only 4 guests at a dining table
-avoid karaoke

They can already see:
the pattern in infections has changed. #B117 is changing everything.

The measures stay the same
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne…
#France, Paris region:
"We had 1.500 beds in ICU.
All of them are full with #COVID19 patients, now.

And current predictions say in two weeks there'll be 2.200 patients.
Where shall we place them?"
Statistics for Paris region are in:
In the last week, before schools finally closed,
~10.000 kids at school were found to be #COVID19 'positive'.

That number was ~33% more, than a week earlier.
But "schools in #France will reopen in 3~4 weeks" is already promised

(while an epidemiologist points out that'd be when infections might just have peaked...)
francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/…
In fact, a recent prediction said:
"On April 22, 3 weeks from now, the number of #COVID19 patients needing intensive care in Paris region may be ~3.500."

(all of their 1.500 ICU beds are already full, today)
lci.fr/sante/covid-19…
#Denmark has registered their first 2 cases of "enhanced" #B117 (the additional #E484K mutation is sometimes nicknamed "Eeek", because it has the potential to make the virus less susceptible to antibodies/vaccines)
#Austria had confirmed major presence of #B117+#E484K a week ago.

(major presence: >100 cases in Tyrol)...
One week ago,
Tyrol (#Austria) announced 216 active cases of #B117+#E484K mutation.

As a result, leaving this area is only permitted with ´negative´ #COVID19 test.
Yes, #Austria´s army is back to control exits from Tyrol.
(They had been deployed earlier, when #B1351 was spreading in Tyrol)

~"It worked before - we´re going to stop this new variant, too"
meinbezirk.at/kitzbuehel/c-l…
A theatre director in #Austria is "devastated".
After practices 12 of 15 choir members are infected with #COVID19.

~"We did tests every 48 hours. I thought we´d test, test, test and we´d be safe..."
🙄
"but some with negative tests were in fact positive"
noen.at/baden/corona-a…
Yesterday, #Denmark´s SSI confirmed:
of 117.670 tests done in February-March
about ~50% of tests with rapid (#antigen) tests gave "false" results:

45% false positive
AND
47% false negative

(should keep that in mind when relying on those tests...)
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
An interview with the doctor behind #Tübingen´s trial to open up for tested citizens...

She sounds quite reasonable, proposing adjustments and even willing to cancel the trial, if needed.

But there´s no real evaluation concept - it´s a wasted chance...
fuldaerzeitung.de/panorama/coron…
The inherent problem with the "tested opening" trial:

without transparent data
and no clear shut down criteria

the discussion needs to be held right now
(while the city´s incidence is on the rise)
if it´d be better to close again...

Many don´t think so.
ardmediathek.de/video/swr-aktu…
Because one city´s experience may not be enough, #Germany´s state of Lower Saxony has announced another "trial".
Next week, 14 cities will open up for tested citizens.

They start with an incidence of (some barely) below 100...
ms.niedersachsen.de/startseite/akt… Image
There´s quite some chance for making contacts in Lower Saxony´s "trial" areas.
This "project" shall run for 3 weeks - if nothing goes horribly wrong...
🙄
Surveillance? Cities will "report their experiences"
and there´s a new tracing app (👈
will be busy)
niedersachsen.de/Coronavirus/vo… Image
Lower Saxony´s opening "trial" has some interesting shut down criteria:

It must end, if incidence goes above 200 (for 3 days)
UNLESS this surge is "caused" by the increased testings...

(like: "it was there anyway and y´all didn´t notice it - so it can´t be that bad...") 🤨 Image
RULES
After holding a farewell dinner for a section chief at a restaurant, 2 of 9 city staff members from Osaka (#Japan) have tested ´positive´.
"We´re really sorry - we should have respected the suggested limit of having only 4 guests at such parties"
🤷
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Here are predictions for Osaka´s #COVID19 development.

It´s four days old.
Since then, actual numbers have matched the worst case line...
(Yesterday had an alltime record of 666 new cases)
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… Image
Somehow, there´s still a peculiar perception where & how people get infected in Osaka...
Osaka´s prefect gave practical tips on how to do "masked dinners".

When dining with others, it´s okay to remove your masks when eating,
put them back on, when talking
#Japan´s Medical Association is critical on Osaka´s focus on restaurants.

In fact, with #B117 being the dominant variant in the area, infections are virtually spreading everywhere.
"~an infected person in a family will infect most other family members"
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
"Live with the risk, manage the risk"

In the first 2 waves, South #Korea managed to bring infections down without major (business) Lockdown.
The 3rd wave (December) was more difficult. But still, with some not too harsh measures, numbers went down...
Image
Churches are a thing in South #Korea.
(They played a ´particular´ role in the first wave).
They are open now.

Some people also get infected there
and then are spreading it to another church...
(it´s Easter time, so a lot of masses)
Currently, South #Korea also has a large cluster of "35 karaoke bars and 6 job placement agencies"
(🤔now, that´s an interesting mix...)

But infections are also still happening in nursing homes, healthcare, schools, workplaces,...
Those outbreaks aren´t a new thing - they are the tolerated price to maintain #Korea´s society open, with only basic restrictions...

But this week, something changed:
the #Balance doesn´t work like before.

Case numbers have slowly started to go up.
Image
South #Korea had seen first (imported) cases of #B117 as early as December.
Meanwhile the overall count for variant cases is said to be 289 (249 #B117).

I couldn´t find official variant updates,
but on monday, a week ago, 38 new #B117 cases were found.🤨
koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20…
Unfortunately, vaccines are not expected to come to South #Korea´s rescue in the short term.

Currently, only ~2-3% of the population has been vaccinated.
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Monday´s reported #COVID19 numbers are usually the lowest in every week, in South #Korea.

Now,
if this week´s "low day" numbers are nearly as high as last week´s "peak day",
there might be something going on...🤔
Image
An interesting way to "control the spread" of the virus:

Karaoke bars stay open. It´s totally okay to work or visit there (with masks, no eating).
And it´s okay to get infected / infect others, there...

BUT YOU NEED A TEST, so the outbreak can be managed
Image
This is South #Korea´s sharpened guidance in Busan, as a reaction to their karaoke outbreaks:
-No eating, but drinking
-1 meter distance
-OR partition between tables
...
This is soooo not ready for #B117...😟
english.busan.go.kr/bsnews01/14827… Image
It seems, #Canada is now waking up to #Variant nightmares.

"That is why you see so many, physicians in particular.... panicked"

cbc.ca/player/play/18…
Somehow, it seems #Canada has suddenly become aware that "something´s going on"...

and that there´s urgent need for action
Measures are differing, not only from province to province - even between neighboring cities.

But all over #Canada, authorities try to start getting serious with their efforts against #COVID19 (variants)...
This is, what #Ontario´s idea of the shutdown was, only 3 days ago:
schools were left open & no Stay at Home Order.

In the last few hours, they came to the conclusion that they´d better change that...
toronto.ctvnews.ca/what-does-a-co… Image
It seems, local authorities are not waiting for provincial government to adapt the measures but take matters into their own hands...

"Schools ordered to close, despite government´s firm belief they should stay open"
toronto.ctvnews.ca/peel-schools-o…
While Toronto doesn´t want to close all schools, so far, they are about to close a whole lot of them - because they all have #COVID19 outbreaks...
A "wake-up call",

I think, that´s what they achieved...
#Ontario
#COVID19
Meanwhile,
to the west of Ontario, #Alberta was trying to keep an outbreak of #P1 under control...
They discovered it ~3 days ago.
Alberta´s #P1 outbreak is indeed ´significant´:
"The outbreak started with a traveller returning to Alberta from out of province. To date, the spread has been confined to three work sites in Central and North Zone, where employees travelled between sites."
Note:
"returning from out of Alberta province", being infected with #P1
doesn´t require a trip to Brazil.

It´s more likely someone had been to the neighboring province British Columbia...
bc.ctvnews.ca/more-cases-of-…
And British Columbia (BC) for sure has a P1 problem...
Surprise...
Sendai City (#Japan) wondered why case numbers were soaring recently - so they re-analyzed 208 samples from February/March.

They found: 80% were carrying the #E484K mutation.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
EMA head of vaccines expressed *very* carefully:

"It is now increasingly difficult to say that there is no cause-effect relationship between #AstraZeneca vaccinations and very rare cases of unusual blood clots..."
🙄
ansa.it/canale_salutee…
What is EMA about to do?

EMA: "it will take a very meticulous job to understand if the beneficial risk ratio is in favor of the #AstraZeneca vaccine for all ages".

🤔I think you may find the violes in your local supermarket, soon. Same shelf as unsold chocolate Easter bunnies.
"Alternative Facts" about testing at workplaces in #Germany:
(both may be true)

1.) "Only 23% of all employees are given opportunity to have one weekly #COVID19 test"

(trade union-affiliated institute)
boeckler.de/de/pressemitte… Image
Alternative view:

2.) "Over 90% of all companies offer #COVID19 tests"
or are planning to do so.

(Federation of German Industries asked CEOs)
issuu.com/bdi-berlin/doc… Image
Seriously🇩🇪 folks - you´re clowning around with the idea of ONE single (SELF)test per week...

It might be worth to cancel the whole show (so nobody accidentially thinks his result would mean anything)

But🤔 if "90% are doing it" anyway - it could as well be made mandatory, no?
🧐Fun fact from #BDI´s own presentation:

while ~90% of (interviewed) companies "~do something about tests"😏

only ~50% are actually capable to offer ONE weekly test (the rest is offering them every 10-14 days or not at all, (yet))🙄

#embarrassing
Image
Tübingen adapts their "opening for tests" strategy, due to rising case numbers.

One novelty:
companies in the city will be obliged to test their employees 1-2 times/week.

(And the city will sell those tests - so there´s no excuse of ´no available tests´)
tuebingen.de/28331.html#/32… Image
Nope, that´s not an "advice"
No "voluntary" measure, and
any "self-commitment" won´t help...

#Tübingen is actually imposing MANDATORY tests for employees.
They HAVE TO present results twice a week(!),
Employer HAS TO control and guarantee fulfillment(!!)
tuebingen.de/amtliche_bekan… Image
No more delays.
#Toronto is closing all schools !

Toronto´s Mayor had asked for one additional day to give parents time to prepare,
but the city's medical officer of health, said

"the shutdown is
needed IMMEDIATELY"
One week ago,
a gym in Quebec, #Canada was forced to close.

An inspection had found some 'non-compliances' to #COVID19 rules.

(At that time, already 68 cases were linked to that gym)...
journaldequebec.com/2021/03/31/la-…
One week after the gym in Quebec was shut, the number of infected staff and clients has now increased to:
193.
The latest count, after a week: Quebec's gym outbreak has spread further.

The 193 directly linked cases have already caused
164 secondary infections at ~30 other workplaces (like restaurants, offices, shops, construction,...)
🌊🌊🏄🌊
After more and more cases related to the gym had been noted,
health authorities had ordered it to close...

for 24 hours for complete disinfection🤦
and then authorized it to reopen

(Just in case you wondered how one gym could infect 193 people + more...)
archyde.com/almost-360-pri… Image
Just interesting to see:
several states in #Germany have / had allowed gyms to reopen (differing rules everywhere).

Gym providers were "fighting hard" to keep their business open...

Meanwhile, many fights have been lost to sharpened rules.
mcfit.com/de/willkommen-… Image
I still do believe,
´something´ is going on in South #Korea...

(it´s more obvious now)
Image
What´s not so obvious
(and why South Korea´s surge is especially worrysome)

- the peak happens despite reduced testing (!)
- it´s mostly SYMPTOMATIC cases who get tested at the moment (!)
- They just start thinking of free tests for those without symptoms
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202104…
#Osaka lights up in red alert lights, tonight.
The city´s mascot is in tears.

The #COVID19 situation has become worse, faster than expected.

It´s mostly the young ones, 20~30 years, this time.
Hospitals are filling up rapidly.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
#Osaka´s worst-case scenario (left, black line) from a week ago was pretty accurate in predicting today´s record case numbers (878 new cases, ~orange X).

Let´s hope their prediction for next week (right, 1.426 cases per day) is wrong😟
Last week´s report:
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… ImageImage
One development wasn´t foreseen.
It took #Osaka by surprise:

The number of "seriously ill" patients.

It went up much higher, much faster (red line) than worst-case predictions (dotted line).

This week´s report:
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… Image
#Osaka Prefecture declared a Medical State of Emergency, today.

-"infections are spreading at an unprecedented pace."
-"more patients are becoming seriously ill in shorter periods of time."

-"the local healthcare system is now overstretched."
www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ne… Image
#Norway discussed their reopening course, today.

"realistically opening might start in late May, the earliest. But in a very bad case it wouldn´t start in 2021 at all"...

Then, authorities brought in another proposal:
ZERO-COVID.
nrk.no/norge/vurderte…
While introducing the ZERO-COVID concept in a press conference, today,
#Norway´s Health Director also stated:

"Shifting to a ´zero´ strategy isn´t realistic, right now.
It may be, later.

And certainly we should keep it in mind for the next pandemic"
adressa.no/nyheter/innenr…
Who rules the world?

#B117

at least in most of #Norway,
according of FHI´s week-report
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
Who´s winning in #Canada?

They say they´re one of the few countries with significant outbreaks of 3 #variants at once.

"What happens to all three of them in the mix?
Which one takes over?
Which one is the fittest of the three?"

Sure: Canada will lose.
cbc.ca/news/health/co…
🧬💨vs 💉🐌
"#Canada's slow vaccine roll out has failed to keep up with the exponential rise in variants in the third wave

and the premature loosening of restrictions has led to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths,

even in younger Canadians."
😟
Vaccinations in #Berlin.

No exponential growth.
(Of course not, but: they´re at it for ~3 months,
now 13% vaccinated🤨)
Image
Yes,
over 70 year old citizens of #Berlin get free taxi rides to the vaccinations.
service.berlin.de/dienstleistung… Image
Oh, these dinners are sooo common in #Japan, this time of year.

Ministry of Health held one, too (with some infected afterwards).
Ehime prefecture outed they had 9 of them, in hotspots.
🤷
Health Minister and Ehime´s governour have returned their salary.
All over #France,
even in the confined departements
and in the overseas territories in the Indian Ocean or the Caribbean

#COVID19 seems to have stopped.
😏
Their secret weapon:
Easter holidays.

Labs are closed.🙄
covidtracker.fr/covidexplorer/ Image
Many countries saw the Easter-effect.

In #Germany, the national reproduction factor dipped down to R(4days)~0,60.
🤨
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Some seized the (Easter influenced numbers) opportunity and declared:

"I don´t see any exponential growth.
in my state, numbers are falling.
The situation in our hospitals is relaxed...

~Let´s stop these short-lived activistic lockdown ideas"
zdf.de/nachrichten/po…
Non-relaxed response from a hospital in this state:

"Our ICU is full. 2/3rds are COVID patients, average age is<55.
Each day, more very severe cases are brought in...

WE don´t know how we´ll cope with that, without effective action against the pandemic."
From #Germany´s ICU Ass. press conference, today:

"In 10 days, our regular #COVID19 capacity will be full"

"~30% of our COVID patients now are 35-59 years old. They´re way more ill, they fight way much longer than earlier. This is due to #B117"
#Germany´s ICU Ass.:
"The weird thing is: we predicted all this."

And the low case numbers...
they think they´re currently not reflecting the true situation (due to Easter backlog):
instead of ~110 "we think it might be above 150. More like 160~170".
berliner-zeitung.de/gesundheit-oek… Image
And then this shock:

#Germany´s heads of states just cancelled their planned meeting on monday.

They say they´d already know they will not agree on any additional measures...
rnd.de/politik/corona…
And so, the "let´s have reopening trials" frenzy in #Germany goes on...

"When in the beginning their incidence is below 100, these 9 cities and 4 districts will be allowed to start their reopening trials..."

🤔mmmnn what happens if the incidence goes up?
If the 7 day incidence goes over 100 for 7(!) days in a row,
the trial has to be stopped (UNLESS the city can argue that the reopening has not substantially contributed to the rising case numbers...)
🙄
Now everyone is jumping on the bandwagon:

the mayor of #Karlsruhe just announced he wants to lift the incidence limit for shopping.

"shops are not the drivers of the pandemic"

Shopping with an incidence of 150 or 200 might still be okay...
ka-news.de/region/karlsru…
It seems like everybody has been waiting for #Germany´s seemingly anarchic moment.

One chamber of commerce throws their (old) hat into the ring:
"Shops and hotels must open immediately, they´re no drivers of the pandemic!"
swr.de/swraktuell/bad… Image
They (IHK Ulm) had already posted their demand 3 weeks ago.
They claimed #RKI had classified hotels and shops as "low risk".
And besides focussing on incidence one should also look at
- pressure on hospitals 🤨
- vaccination rates 🙄
ulm.ihk24.de/servicemarken/… Image
Here´s the #RKI handout that IHK Ulm refers to.

Yes, hotels are deemed "low risk" - but they are also classified as having "limited impact" if they´d be closed...

(but that´s not the main point here...)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#RKI´s concept was very detailed in saying:
🧐
"If incidence rises ABOVE 50 (!!), closing hotels and non-essential shops should be considered"

(Especially with:
diffuse, large outbreaks✅
high transmission in private settings✅
high pressure on hospitals)✅

🙄 Image
#Germany´s ICU Ass. explained:

"4 weeks ago, we were working at a very low point,
with 2.700 #COVID19 patients.
Today we´re at 4.474

Whatever we´ll try now - there´ll be more than 5.000 ICU patients by the end of this month.
Much higher, if we don´t act"
2 days ago,
the Caribbean islands of #StVincent & Grenadines had received their first 24.000 doses of COVAX vaccine.
...
paho.org/en/news/7-4-20…
Then this happened:

they discovered
the local #volcano was about to erupt violently.
Within hours or days.

An urgent evacuation order for #StVincent was issued.
The options to flee from #StVincent:
cruise ships
🛳️🌋
Everyone was urged to get vaccinated before getting on board a ship
or going into a shelter
or entering neighboring islands

"We don´t want a #COVID19 outbreak"
loopslu.com/content/vincen…
10% of #StVincent´s population had been vaccinated so far.

The volcano erupted ~2 hours ago.
No time for more vaccinations.
(#StVincent, #Volcano reuption)
Cruise ships had just arrived to #StVincent,
but people were already fleeing with whatever available...

#StVincent evacuation:

"This is not a drill.
And this is not voluntary.
There´s a pandemic taking place
and we´ll be vaccinating persons once they enter a government operated shelter."
#StVincent evacuation:

"Very much so I want to ease the discomfort of having to leave your home,
of going to a shelter.

We know it´s a... you have to do it!

I regret I well up in tears...

Any questions?
We´ll continue to work !"
While we, together with @EU_Commission are fighting over vaccines,
discuss who´s going to be locked out from our countries, out of fear of infections

"People of neighboring nations have responded, they put people in their homes, strangers,..."
#StVincent
#StVincent, after sunrise,
this morning
#StVincent´s neighboring island Saint Lucia will take several hundred evacuees.
No vaccination required, but a #COVID19 test, of course.

The evacuees will be housed with volunteering local families. Expected time of needed evacuation stay:
~3 months.
stluciatimes.com/saint-lucia-pr…
#Germany, Saarland

How it started:
they allowed substantial reopenings,
starting April 06,
incidence 77.8 (low, due to Easter backlog)

Then
April 07: 85.2
April 08: 97.4
April 09: 103.7

How it´s going - Today´s incidence:
April 10: 125.0
🤷
Image
A first state in #Germany (Rhineland-Palatinate) introduces eased rules for fully vaccinated people.

From monday, they will not need to provide a ´negative´ test result at most occasions.

(Masks, distancing, closed institutions, etc. will still apply)
msagd.rlp.de/de/service/pre… Image
~5% of Rhineland-Palatinate´s population are fully vaccinated, so far.

Some will never get the jab in time.
"We have a massive increase in young, severly sick patients"
"We´ve never had 5 patients on ECMO at once - but now, we do..."
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
One person died on April 6, in a town in #Norway.
The town later urgently asked "participants of recent meetings" at the man´s home to get tested.

They think he died of #COVID19.

He is said to have been a well-known COVID-denier.
😟
gran.kommune.no/nye-smittetilf… Image
#France still has the Easter hiccups (concerning their #COVID19 test results).

Especially in the areas close to the borders (no workdays - no obligatory testing for working commute with border crossings...)
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
Another indicator shows:
#France (here: Grand-Est region) has more than just hiccups.
Hospital saturation is above 100% (on average...)

(this data is 2 days old, because: weekend)
grand-est.ars.sante.fr/system/files/2… Image
Average hospital saturation above 100%...

that means: France´s Grand-Est departement #Vosges has 388% of their beds occupied.

Many others are also over 100%.
Only 3 (Bas-Rhin, Haut-Rhin, Marne) are at 64-70%, for now.
actu.fr/societe/corona…
Who fills up the hospitals (here: entire #France)?

To many it will be a surprise, when they are admitted to ICU. They may have thought, they are still "not the vulnerable ones".

They had been spared in the waves before,
the ages of 20 years upwards...
covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-f… Image
The story behind #Brazil´s "hand of god"

It started as attempt to get one patient´s hand warm enough, so that a pulse oximeter could read his oxygenation.
It worked.

Later, another patient wouldn´t let go the doctor´s hand,...
the idea worked again.
🤝
g1.globo.com/rj/rio-de-jane…
So
after having incidences above 100 for 3 days in a row,
#Germany´s Saarland now "decided" to switch their #COVID19 status to yellow.

(while the ´green´ light was always proudly displayed on their entry page, this update is hidden in the news section...)
saarland.de/msgff/DE/aktue… Image
#Saarland´s "Yellow COVID status" announcement is... 🤔weird?

In Yellow status, "more testing will be done"
(why only now?)

"The more we test, the more infections we´ll find".
(Ahu? So that´ll be the reason, why case numbers won´t come down soon?)
🙄
saarland.de/msgff/DE/aktue… Image
Germany´s #RKI, critical about the idea to reopen while incidences surge beyond 100
(2 days ago):

~"This does NOT imply, the risk of getting infected is lower.
It means: those who are in charge do hand over their responsibilities to the ordinary folks"~
#Saarland´s concept is flawed:

Under ´Yellow´ status, nothing will close, it´s just more tests.
This will stay in force "until overload of the medical system is imminent"😵

And they´re not even sure how ´overload of medical system´ should be defined🤷
sr.de/sr/home/nachri… Image
Another "great reopening" plan:
the #Netherlands just started a roll-out of "test for entry" events.

Only those who can present a ´negative´ test are allowed to participate in selected concerts, events, etc.
Costs: 150 million € / month for testing.
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
Additionally, the Netherlands held Fieldlab events
with scientific support.

The goal was to evaluate
Behaviour
Trace & Track solutions
Rapid tests
Air quaility
Dynamic (singing, yelling, dancing etc)
Personal protection
Surface hygiene
Vulnerable persons
fieldlabevenementen.nl/bouwstenen/ Image
Today,
first results from Netherlands´ #Fieldlab events were reported:

"Results were encouraging".
~It would be acceptable to omit the 1.5m distance.
Most contacts would only be "shorter than 15 minutes" anyway...

(🤔wait... no #COVID19?...)
nos.nl/artikel/237628…
Well,
At 2 #Fieldlab festivals, all 3.000 guests had been PCR tested in advance. 26 were found ´positive´ and therefore didn´t participate.

But: AFTER the festivals 16 additional cases were detected.
Some had likely been infected during the festivals.
🤷
destentor.nl/show/mogelijk-…
Q:"16 infections after your #Fieldlab festivals, do you think that´s okay?"
A:"~Well, you should see - we´re in a high phase of infections in our country anyway..."

(In the 48 hours between test and festival, at least 2 participants became infectious.🙄)
Another participant of the meeting at a well-known COVID-denier´s home in #Norway has now died from #COVID19.

Her family tried to help, but couldn´t do anything.
💔
gran.kommune.no/nytt-covid-doe… Image
Several contacts of people who were present at the COVID-denier´s home in #Norway have now been confirmed to be infected with #COVID19.

They live in several communities across Østlandet region...
(that´s fairly widespread)
gran.kommune.no/nytt-covid-doe… Image
Scientists from #Germany´s Association of Aerosol Science urged politics to "concentrate on the real issue: #COVID19 infections would happen indoors.

Rare outdoor infections would never cause a #cluster"...

🌬️🍃
docs.dpaq.de/17532-offener_… Image
Easter friday (10 days ago), police in North #Germany were called to a field. Dozens of youth had been seen there, holding a clandestine party.

When police arrived, most of them ran away.
Party over...
case closed?
no 🌬️🍃
rnd.de/panorama/dutze…
Soon after,
several #COVID19 cases popped up.
Thankfully they mentioned where they might have been infected..: the party in the fields.

The district issued a quarantine order for all (yet unknown) participants
and urged them to come forward for testing.
landkreis-rostock.de/bekanntmachung… Image
It then became clear:
the party in the fields had been a #Superspreading event.
🌬️🧬
"So far, we have 5 infected partygoers...
and already 1 secondary infection
(had not been to the party, but was close contact to one partygoer)"
landkreis-rostock.de/landkreis/aktu… Image
The number of infected close contacts after the field-party has now risen to 4.

Additionally, mandatory #COVID19 testing started in school-classes of typical partygoers´ age.
No test returned ´positive´ today...

But there were some students who preferred to be "absent" today
🙄 Image
Over 1.000 ?!

#Osaka
#COVID19

😯
April 9, one teacher at an elementary school in #Osaka was tested #COVID19 ´positive´ after feeling ill.
April 10, three more teachers felt ill: ´positive´.
April 13: 16 of 60 teachers ´positive´.
#School is closed.

"None of the 875 students feels ill"
🙄
sooo....
the teachers at that one school in #Osaka got infected

"because their desks at the staff room only had a screen in front (and were missing #screens to the sides)"

🙄ah, screens... okay. I see the problem.
#Aerosols 🌬️🧬
mainichi.jp/articles/20210… Image
I remember #Osaka is promoting acrylic screens to protect from #COVID19.

Just last week, they offered a subsidy (100.000 ¥) to restaurants who retrofitted their rooms with screens.
(Screens have gotten really expensive, due to high demand, there)

🤷
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Heyyy ! Going on holidays again!

A travel agency from the #Netherlands is doing a trial.
~200 travelers will pay for one week on Rhodes (Greece).

They may not leave the resort and there´ll be surveillance of strict distancing.
But there´ll be a bar.
🏝️🥂
Only 189 places were available for the holiday trial on Rhodes.
25.000 people applied, back in March.

Typical #COVID19 risk groups were not accepted.
hln.be/reizen/uiteind…
Having secured a place on Netherlands´ holiday trial doesn´t mean you´ll actually go.

There are 2 tests before departing (PCR 3 days in advance, rapid test upon departure).

One holidaygoer needed to unpack again - ´positive´.
😕✋ 🛫🏝️🥂🥳
metronieuws.nl/lifestyle/reiz…
Dutch authorities promise a "COVID-free bubble" during the current holiday-trial on Rhodes.

(given incubation periods of >5 days for #B117 and a pre-test interval of 3 days, that´s pretty bold...

🤔is there a "we´ll take you back anyway" guarantee...?)
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
No "return back guarantee"...

#France is suddenly announcing to cancel all flights from #Brazil.

(there had been alerts by experts over several days, that France´s entry policy was neglecting the risks of #P1 variant, so far)
That was some heated discussion in #France´s parliament.

"The situation is dramatic..."
and then, the Prime Minister shouting "we see the situation is getting worse! And thus we have decided to stop the flights between #Brazil and France"
🤔Where in #France is the situation already getting worse, due to the #P1 variant from #Brazil????

Here, obviously:
French #Guiana.

French overseas territory, bordering Brazil.
(flights from there seem to be unaffected by the flight-stop...)
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
(Already 3 months ago)
#France had reacted to the emergence of another worrying variant besides the UK variant - this time from Brazil...
Yes, back in January there had been wild speculations about #Portugal beeing a major entry point for #P1 to Europe...
Seeing this detail in the map,
presented by french TV,
I was kind of worried...

#Portugal?! Has a share of 20.7% of brazilian variants ?????
Image
Checking Portugal´s data base:

as of March, #Portugal has only had 22 cases of brazilian variant #P1, they say.
That´d make up 0.4%.
(mostly imported cases, little community spreading in Portugal)

Phew...🥲
(so far)
insaflu.insa.pt/covid19/relato… Image
🤗Ooooooh,
the #Netherlands have a plan.

Okay - it´s a dream.
A dream of reopening everything, in 5 steps.
Starting in 2 weeks.

"if patient numbers start falling and we all stick to the basic rules..."

🙄wait: indoor sports, starting 4 weeks from now???
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
The 2 pillars for reopening the #Netherlands:

vaccinating
&testing for entry

"We expect a lot less #COVID19 patients to be in hospitals in a few weeks."

🤔Those who get infected TODAY will enter hospitals in 2-4 weeks (when reopening step 2 is planned)
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
Ah. Ohhh...

"You have to take risks. Stop staring at the numbers every day. We should not wait until vaccines finally kick in, sometimes in July..."
(chairman of the Dutch Security Council)

That sounds like a different plan for the #Netherlands.
🤨
nos.nl/liveblog/23763…
"You have to take risks..."

Dutch parliament just agreed for the next batch of #Fieldlab events.

You´ll need a ´negative´ test to enter.
Once inside, #COVID19 is gone🥳🥂🎶
(see pic below, from a recent fieldlab dance festival,
4 infected afterwards)
nos.nl/artikel/237663…
The list of planned #Fieldlab events in the #Netherlands:

up to 10.000 guests
indoor & outdoor

"Part of the practical tests is that visitors let go of a number of basic rules that are supposed to prevent #COVID19." (👈official government´s text)
rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co… Image
Irritating about the Netherlands´ list of #Fieldlabs:
it´s all about fun & commerce, not "essential" stuff.

How about taking some "real" risk and having a trial that could prove that bashing rallies was wrong all the time (or not)?!
Pre-registrations for the 10.000 visitors open-air festival (April 24) in the #Netherlands have now started.

The only entry test will be:
One rapid (antigen) test, done shortly before arriving there...

Of course, 🇳🇱 will have everything under control🙄
538.nl/oranjedag/538-… Image
By the way:
#RIVM (#Netherlands´ disease center) recently announced that they had stopped keeping track of who was actually vaccinated
(key element in the reopening plan!)

They´d lost overview, even of the risk groups, because "it was too complicated".
🤷
nos.nl/artikel/237608…
As weird and wild as the Netherlands´ #Fieldlabs are,
at least they bring up some results.

In the last 2 events, ~80% of visitors voluntarily did another test AFTER the event.
So we know 16 of 3.000 got infected ´in relation´ to these festivals.
nrc.nl/nieuws/2021/04…
7 islands of #Germany have also announced a "reopening lab trial"

They have 2 entry tests as a "firewall" (~48-72 hours apart).
But no exit test for visitors - so there´s not much to learn from, it´s just for business.
ostfriesische-inseln.de/Moin-Konzept Image
If you happen to test "definitely positive" (PCR-confirmed) during a second test on the island,
they´ll simply kick you out.

How you get home?
None of their business.
(they´re only accessible by plane or boat, who´ll be happy to have an infected passenger)ostfriesische-inseln.de/cntx_medien/fi…
Oslo (#Norway) is confident:
"Olso is on track to strike down the third wave"

and they have one priority:
"from monday on, all students will be able to return to their #schools."

(everything else will stay restricted, for now)
oslo.kommune.no/politikk/byrad… Image
"Stronger protection than before..."
in Oslo means:

Wearing facemasks will be allowed outside of lessons (not in lessons).
Those emplyees who want it, can use facemasks (unclear, if this means during lessons...)
🤨
Image
Hey #Switzerland, how's your pandemic going?

~"We don't quite know what's going on here, but looking at neighboring countries who are doing much more, we think we're screwing it up"

(admittedly very rough translation)
#Switzerland🇨🇭officially:

Situation has worsened constantly.
Most indicators for reopenings are not met.
It´s yet unknown, if Easter has caused many family infections

Nevertheless,
government has decided it´s time to open up.

(that´s not the crazy part)
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
🇨🇭
This is the crazy part:

"In case of an outbreak, a company can avoid sending involved work-teams into #quarantine,
by offering ONE TEST PER WEEK to their employees..."

(spokesman of #Switzerland´s government, on incoming new #COVID19 rules)
Maybe even crazier:

~"Your government knows the risk of opening up.

So we call on you, citizens:
take care of yourself.

Especially you in the risk groups - you know it would only take several more weeks and you´d be fully vaccinated and safe."
🇨🇭
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
#Switzerland´s new COVID19 rules, also:

Indoor choir singing will not require wearing masks.
⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️⚫️
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
#Switzerland has also issued a FAQ for their new #COVID19 rules (in case you thought this can´t be true...):

Yes,
choir practices up to 15 persons indoors.
No masks for singers,
a 25 m2 area per singer (or "efficient barriers") will suffice.
⚫️
newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/… Image
In some cases, it helps to read the ordinance text:
🇨🇭
Even if employees refuse to take a weekly test at work,
they won´t need to quarantine in case they´d be #COVID19 contacts.

Even those who take tests, would still need to quarantine, while not at work.
newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/… Image
#Germany´s Saarland may be forced into full #Lockdown again, due to

"doubling of #Variant cases within one day"
🤨???

(4 weeks ago they had
#B117: 59%,
#B1351: 10.8%,
#P1: (1 unconfirmed case)
tagesspiegel.de/wissen/coronav… Image
Ooops ! A tiny -but important- new Detail in #Tübingen´s local pandemic plan:

"If an employee REFUSES to take a COVID19 test (twice a week),
the employer shall REPORT him to the city´s authorities."

(In the rest of #Germany, tests are usually voluntary)
tuebingen.de/Dateien/2021-0… Image
A Covid-deniers´ meeting in #Norway had turned into a #superspreading event, ~3 weeks ago.
So far, 2 people died (including the organizer).

Meanwhile, communities all over the region find secondary, tertiary... infections in people who had not been there.
ostre-toten.kommune.no/covid-19/aktue… Image
After a disastrous wave of #COVID19 had receeded,
#Portugal cautiously started some reopenings, 4 weeks ago.

Yesterday they checked what happened.
It´s not too bad,
so from monday on, they´ll open up more...
covid19estamoson.gov.pt/lockdown-easin… Image
#Portugal knows,
they need to stay alert.

Overall incidence has decreased nicely (~120 to ~70),
but there are frequent upticks (R currently above ~1) and several hotspot areas.

They´re wise enough to not only use one indicator...
sns.gov.pt/wp-content/upl… ImageImageImage
There are regions who´s incidence increased since the last evaluation.

So #deconfinement will not be the same for everyone in #Portugal.
Some will stay in their current phase,
some will even go back to more restrictions.
sns.gov.pt/noticias/2021/… ImageImage
One example how difficult it is to let go of deconfinement...

#Germany´s Saarland is still at "yellow" restriction level.
Their incidence has risen above 120 (where Portugal was, one month ago), R is ~1.5.

No decision was taken, yet...
sr.de/sr/home/nachri…
Is the next wave in the making...?

It seems to have set a first foot in #England,
where our current dominant #B117 was reigning mostly uncontested, so far.
Its name: #B1617
🤷
It looks like labs in #India had just stopped sequencing #B117 and switched to "the latest trend" #B1617 instead...

but:
"the findings are consistent with what has been observed at the ground."
(Indian official)
hindustantimes.com/india-news/dou… Image
Of course,
#B117 is still around, even in India.

It has just been submerged by the flood of #B1617 cases.
Just today,

Germany has announced that it will no longer regard #UK
as being a #COVID19 risk area.

In practice this means:
no quarantine,
no tests,
when entering #Germany from UK
(only possible with qualifying reasons)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
And despite of raging #B1617 variant,
#Germany thinks nothing has changed in #India since summer 2020.

It´s still considered a simple "risk area".
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
Just a little bit longer:

#Germany´s Saarland government reportedly wants to keep "yellow" restriction level
(with outdoor restaurants & shops, theatres, cinemas,... open with tests),

while hospitals say "we´re already under pressure, stop it"...
saarbruecker-zeitung.de/saarland/lande…
Meanwhile in #Denmark:

"Overall, we are a little bit surprised at how well things are going,"

(3 week old models,
actual development matches the "very best case" scenario,
despite having opened more than this model was caculating...)
~700 new cases / day
ssi.dk/-/media/arkiv/… Image
#SSI: "#Denmark is one of the least infected countries in Europe, now"

What´s the difference?

"We have a good understanding of this pandemic and accept instructions from authorities.
And we´re a nation with a high social trust - we do things for others."
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Inspired by their apparent success,
#Denmark´s government has just decided to open up a lot more, in 5 days:

indoor dining,
indoor sports
art & music schools (NO singing!)
stadiums
...
(all still regulated, but open)
nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2021-0… Image
#Denmark´s SSI advised the opening decisions,
at one point even intervened (dreams went beyond SSI´s calculations)

"we (as a society) are willing to accept an increase in infection. And there´s room for that"
but an emergency stop option would be needed.
nyheder.tv2.dk/2021-04-16-her… Image
Seems the #Netherlands are going to great lengths to be part of the first large trial concert, next weekend:

1 million applications for 10.000 tickets😲

Now the last (personalized) tickets are auctioned off for donations (sold between 10.000~15.000 €)
It also seems, not everyone is happy about holding a 10.000 visitor trial event - especially in the heart of the city of #Breda🇳🇱,
especially while all restaurants & bars in the city have to stay closed, due to Lockdown measures.

Council will meet monday.
The hospital in Breda is also worried about the huge trial event:
"There could be medical emergencies (due to ´substances´ or accidents) - we don´t have any spare beds.

One epidemiologist is also noting:
"infections."
(seems nobody wants to hear this now)
bndestem.nl/breda/grote-zo…
South #Korea,

How it started:
1 worker at a refrigeration company infected coworkers/family,
some of them went to a karaoke bar...

How it´s going:
~4 weeks later,
with world-class tracing.
#Cluster has 476 cases,
still growing
Image
Tell the boss, my holidays will last a little longer...

8 (of 188) participants of #Netherlands´ first trial tour to Rhodos are quarantined in #Greece.
4 have tested "not clearly negative",
the 4 others are their roommates...
nos.nl/artikel/237706…
A #petition has popped up,
to stop next weekend´s 10.000 visitor ´trial´ open air #festival in Breda (#Netherlands)

Reportedly it was initiated by doctors and nurses:
"To organize this festival just 400m from our overloaded hospital is a slap in our face"
petities.nl/petitions/met-…
After news also reported,

that doctor´s #petition against the trial #festival in the #Netherlands is exploding.
>30.000 signed
(~was ~25.000, 15 minutes ago)
and going...
Image
The #Netherlands´ "trial #festival" seems to have struck many nerves,

The #petition website against it
is overrun at the moment.
(until midnight it registered ~70.000 signatures,
this sunday morning, ~8 am, it is between 90~100.000,
still going...
petities.nl/petitions/met-… Image
The #Netherlands´ #COVID19 situation

"~is not the result of errors in judgement.
It´s the result of deliberate decisions.

The choice between keeping infections as low as possible
or allowing as many infections as our ICUs can possibly support".
In a presentation to the government,
(back in October, when the 2nd wave plateaued)
#RIVM stated that "sharper measures wouldn´t change the peak, but would empty hospitals faster"

and so the #Netherlands decided to do nothing in addition, but wait it out.
tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/… Image
#Netherlands´ October decision to "do nothing" was taken although at the same meeting NL´s ICU coordinator showed admissions were already beyond worst-case-scenario...

(a few days later it became obvious "doing something" was needed, so NL finally did)
tweedekamer.nl/kamerstukken/d… Image
It always depends on who´s whispering in your ear...

this time, in #Switzerland,
"other voices were heard"

The National #COVID19 Science Taskforce wasn´t even informed, before government took the decision to reopen, tomorrow...
amidst rising case numbers
srf.ch/news/schweiz/t…
The #petition against the #Netherlands´ "trial #festival" in Breda has now registered >170.000 signatures.
(>100.000 today alone)...
petities.nl/petitions/met-… Image
Seeing the large wave of objection in the #Netherlands (via online #petition), the city of Breda is now asking the dutch #government if they really want to be serious about pushing the "trial #festival" with 10.000 visitors any further...
nos.nl/artikel/237718…
The radio station hosting the planned "trial #festival" says:

"We´re sorry about the upheaval,
but this festival is part of experiments and as long as #Fieldlab and the #Netherlands´ government support it, we´re honored to carry it out"

#ItsNotOurFault😇
nos.nl/artikel/237718… Image
#Fieldlab (the ones who evaluate the #Netherlands´ "trial events") say:

"It´s either on the radio station, the city of Breda or government to decide if the festival will be stopped"...

#ItsNotOrFault😇
#Fingerpointing
nu.nl/media/6128384/… Image
The #Netherlands´ Police Union also raises issues against the planned "trial #festival" in Breda.

"~Police officers are already under pressure and still not vaccinated.
And hospitals might not be able to provide sufficient help, if something goes wrong."
Meanwhile in the #UK:

a very similar set of "trial #events" is about to take place.
Today, an outdoor concert in Liverpool was announced.
5.000 visitors, no masks, no distancing, but antigen tests before and after.

(7-day incidence
UK~28
Netherlands~280)
gov.uk/government/new…
In the #Netherlands,

the government is allegedly saying "it should be the city of #Breda who decides if the "trial #festival" will happen or not.
There´s only one condition: public order must be maintained...

#ItsNotOurFault😇
#Fingerpointing
nos.nl/teletekst#105 Image
At this moment,
the #petition to stop #Netherlands´ "trial #festival" in Breda registers

~300.000 signatures
...
still going.
petities.nl/petitions/met-… Image
Mayor of #Breda (where the #Netherlands´ "trial #festival" should take place):

"~there are other test events in other cities too - and here it should not happen,
just because some people sign a petition ???
That´d hard to explain to the organizers..."
🙄
omroepbrabant.nl/nieuws/3375622… Image
One actual scientist about the #Netherlands´ #Fieldlab events:

"~They don´t even say what they are evaluating.
If they´d really want to research ´behaviour´ it would take far fewer people.
This is not for science -
there seem to be... other interests"
🤨
bnr.nl/nieuws/gezondh… Image
Another dutch trial:
Finally, after several tests,
the 4 test-#holidaymakers from the #Netherlands who were "not clearly negative" have now tested sufficiently ´negative´ to get out of #quarantine (just in time before their test trip to #Greece ends)...
🏝️
nrc.nl/nieuws/2021/04…
The #petition against the planned 10.000 visitor "trial #festival" in Breda (#Netherlands) reached 370.000 signatures.
The city´s mayor now doesn´t give permission...

because of "increasing social unrest".
breda.nl/geen-vergunnin… Image
"Police is getting info that the trial festival might bring confrontations between pro- and con´s"

🤔if there was just one piece of truth in this,
this "trial" would have formidably shown that such events currently split societies.
breda.nl/geen-vergunnin… Image
What the city of #Breda notes at the very bottom of their "trial #festival opponent blaming":

GHOR also gave a "negative advice".

(GHOR is the regional disaster coordinators´ association)
They give expertise to festivals.
And say when a plan is a crock.
ghorbrabantmwn.nl/diensten/advis…
Meet some of the ´bad guys who were causing social unrest´, so that the trial festival in Breda had to be halted:

It´s the police

Police union called all their members to lay down work if they´d be deployed to the festival,
without having been vaccinated
#Japan
Osaka had just hoped,
their good old measures of "self-restraint" and "shortened opening times" would do the trick again.

A week ago, it became clear: hospitals can´t cope.
More beds installed.

Then they waited.
Those measures just had to work...
covid19-osaka.info/en/ Image
Today,
~2 weeks after promoting acrylic screens for restaurants and dinners with max. 4 people,
#Osaka realized:
it´s no use.

They will request a State of #Emergency,
to close restaurants,
department stores
and establish some online learning for schools.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
This prediction is from one week ago.

#Osaka had 227 ICU beds back then.
They managed to push them to 254, today.

Even the best case scenario (black dashed line) says:
some will not find a place.
😟
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… Image
Alpes-Maritimes,
once the worst hit departement in #France,
now sees rapid decline of case numbers (and positivity rate as well).

Even the dominant #B117 is slowing down...
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
Meanwhile,
Alpes-Maritimes is one of the few departements in #France that has come below the official "maximum #COVID19 alert level" (incidence 250)...
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes… Image
Alpes-Maritimes is also the first departement in continental #France to have above 25% vaccinated (first dose).

That seems to be pretty effective.
covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/ Image
#Switzerland´s #COVID19 Science Task Force wasn´t asked, when government decided the latest round of openings (despite rising cases).

They now subtly respond:
"if you had sped up vaccinating instead of opening,
Switzerland would save 1.9 billion CHF"💵
Image
#Switzerland´s #COVID19 Task Force also warned of another effect:

current early openings would conflict with delayed vaccine deliveries -
and this could possibly lead to a strong next wave...
in June.
srf.ch/news/schweiz/e…
#Switzerland´s #COVID19 Task Force explicitly said: this is not a forecast.
This shows *potential* effects of delayed vaccine rollout with current openings...

100.000 doses per day: a new wave in June, as high as the winter wave

50.000: higher.
ImageImage
Zurich (#Switzerland) also performs wastewater testing for #SARSCoV2 tracers.

Swiss COVID19 Task Force now warns:
wastewater results recently don´t match the number of registered cases anymore...
It looks like there´s some serious underreporting of cases!
parsivel-eawag.ch/sarscov2/ARA_W… Image
In fact,
#Switzerland´s testing has gone down drastically, in the last ~3 weeks.
Easter holidays saw record testing (for family visits, presumably).

Now the test number is just ~30% of what it was then.
(Many without symptoms might remain undetected)
covid19.admin.ch/de/epidemiolog… Image
As of yesterday, #Switzerland´s reproduction number is R~1.1

Swiss National #COVID19 Science Task Force worries, because:
cases rise (´slowly...´), testing is not very popular and vaccinations are kind of stuck.
covid19.admin.ch/de/repro/val Image
As of yesterday, #Denmark´s reproduction number is R~1.1

Denmark´s Health Minister says "that´s a sign of our success and gives us a good starting point for reopening..."
The reopening will be broadened today.
In #Denmark,
testing seems to become hugely popular.

From today, a negative test (72 h old) will let you have a beer INSIDE a bar (and other long missed stuff...)
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
BTW:
in #Denmark it´s fine to show a 3 day old ANTIGEN test and have free access to all the nice things of life...

(not that this would make much sense -
it´s not perfect, it´s just what they all agree on.)
coronasmitte.dk/raad-og-regler… Image
#Denmark´s vaccination campaign?

It´s not out of this world speedy:
18.8% have their first dose.
8.9% are ´fully vaccinated´

A week ago, they even said they´d stop using their stock of #AstraZeneca.
It goes well enough - no need for this stuff...
experience.arcgis.com/experience/1c7… Image
What does #Denmark do with ~200.000 unused doses of #AstraZeneca vaccine?

They´re "lending" it to #Germany (55.000 doses).

And they made sure it will only be used in Germany´s border state right next to Denmark.

(A protective ring - very nifty!😏)
ndr.de/nachrichten/sc…
Meanwhile, in #Germany...
("live stream" of parliament, discussing new #COVID19 rules)

No, you can´t see it via the official site. It just won´t work
🤷
bundestag.de Image
Of course,
there´s a way to get the live stream of the discussion in #Germany´s parliament.

If you really want to...
(I´d prefer to wait until the new law is published and omit the show).
So, in #Germany
"at the moment the legislative voting procedures are not held in the chamber but are transferred to the hallway, to provide sufficient space to make distancing possible..."

(*possible*. That´s the keyword, here.
They´re rulemakers, they know the details) Image
#Denmark: "we´re good at fighting COVID, because we´re fighting together".

Germany, 1 month ago (incidence 110.3):
unverhältnismässig
Germany today (incidence 160.1):
unverhältnismässig

One day, the pandemic will be over.
But #Germany will still dispute.
merkur.de/politik/corona…
Meanwhile,
#Switzerland makes straight forward plans for the future.
(Some of the affected people might call them "unverhältnismässig" or unfair...)

The core concept:
The more vaccinations - the less protection
Image
First of all,
#Switzerland admits, that monday´s openings (together with rising cases/unclear situation) would not permit additional easings until end of May...

They´d be happy, as long as 14-day incidence stays below 450.
(today´s incidence: ~330)
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
In June, #Switzerland plans to have vaccinated all willing elderly. Then it´s "vaccine for all willing adults".

As "adherence to rules will deteriorate",
they think cases will surge.
An incidence of 600 would be fine.
(remember: all ´vulnerable´ elderly had their chance) Image
Then, around July/August,
when #Switzerland will have vaccinated all willing adults,

the children will remain.

Switzerland´s solution:
~"Bad luck kids.
We know there´ll be outbreaks among you.
We will call this: the Normal Phase"
newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/… Image
#Norway had also stopped using #AstraZeneca´s vaccine.
They will now give 16.000 doses to #Iceland,
where it is a welcome boost to the vaccination strategy for over 60 year-olds.
stjornarradid.is/efst-a-baugi/f…
In #Japan,
Osaka seems to follow the ´worst-case´ curve.

What´s missing in today´s graph? The yellow line, indicating how many ICU beds are available...🤔

But there are other indicators to understand what´s going on...
pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/38215/0… Image
In Osaka,
it can now take up to 4 hours until an ambulance may drop off a patient at a clinic.

Some who are thought to be well enough are not picked up at all - even though they collapsed with high fever at home
(having been infected by a family member)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
#Osaka:
It can now take up to 7 hours waiting in an ambulance, until a COVID19 patient finds a place in a hospital.

To prevent the collapse of the region´s ambulance system, patients will now be "dropped-off" in a simple room, with O2 and pulse oxymeters
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Kobe City, ~Osaka region, #Japan

"We are shocked. Our hospitals try to coordinate their efforts, but it seems they cannot cope with the rapid increase in patients"

2 #COVID19-patients, 81 & 40 years old
had died at home,
while waiting for a hospital bed
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
#Tokyo goes exponential, due to #Variants.

"2 weeks from now, daily #COVID19 cases are expected to reach 2.000"
(today: 861)

"and hospitalized patients will reach 6.000"
(much more than the winter wave, which peaked at 3.427 hospitalized patients)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
Today, there was a "technical briefing" in the #Netherlands.
Several predictions were presented,
showing what would happen
if openings would be started...

every slide said: "WAIT UNTIL NUMBERS FALL"
tweedekamer.nl/sites/default/… Image
Dutch PM: ~"There may be not much change in our #COVID19 situation -
but I can see enough change to start openings in the #Netherlands next week"

"In contrast to the advisory team, we trust in the forecasts,
we don´t wait until they come true..."
nos.nl/liveblog/23777… Image
And once again,
the #Netherlands hear this argument:

"any additional measures would change nothing in the height of the coming peak -
they would just make the wave recede faster..."

(🤔I think there´s good reason to bring cases down as fast as possible)
ad.nl/politiek/kabin… Image
Things can change quickly

A group of 43 medical students from #India arrived in Paris, April 12.
A negative PCR before leaving India,
a negative antigen test in Paris,
then quarantine in #Belgium

20 of them are now ´positive´.
Despite vaccination.
#B1617
vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2021…
#Japan will stick to procedures,
even when the (virus) world is changing fast...

It took days(? weeks? it felt like ages!) of bureaucracy,
but now, the State of Emergency has been declared.

It will cover the holiday period.
So it'll have real impact.
Meanwhile in #Germany,
the mayor of Pirmasens had tried (once more, in vain) to convince authorities, that the high COVID19 incidence in his city was due to "atypical circumstances".

Therefore neither curfew nor school closures would be needed...
pirmasens.de/rathaus/presse… Image
Admittably,
it's very hard to grasp, why a mayor pleeds against curfew & school closures, when his city is featured with "the worst
incidence in the age group of 5-14 years" (630.1)...

This is alarming, indeed.
But the mayor of #Pirmasens made one point:
"Those infections are in 2 large families. They are confined."

👉That's the real (maybe not his) point.

'Quarantine at home' means 'stay home and infect your entire family'.

Of course, curfew won't help here.
swr.de/swraktuell/rhe…
#Tokyo´s governour asks to turn off every light in the city, except street lights.
💡📴⚫️
"I remember dark nights in Tokyo, during the oil shock and the 3/11 Earthquake, to save energy...
But this time it is meant to suppress the flow of people."
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
🌷🤔
I do remember what many cities in #Japan needed to do one year ago, in a desperate attempt to keep people from gathering...😣🥀✂️
#ChoppingDownFlowersAgainstCOVID
#Germany´s RKI thanks everyone for restricting their movements during Easter.
(3 weeks ago)

"It´s likely this has induced the current plateau in case numbers.
We see, that you´d all do this, if you just had the chance"
(i.e.:closed schools & businesses)😯
Yes,
#Germany´s mobility was substantially reduced during Easter period (for example in Berlin).

But it recurred to ususal levels, a week later.
(And yes: #RKI thinks cases may therefore also start surging again, soon)
tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-… Image
#RKI also thanks the young for many sacrifices,
for saving many elderly and easing pressure on healthcare.

"The young ones now need OUR solidarity,
to also have a chance to finally get a vaccination before the virus gets them..."
(i.e.: not the swiss way)
Meanwhile,
#Austria seems to see no reason to wait for any ´weak´ ones.

There´s sheer joy:
"We will start to go open on May 19 !"
(schools 2 days earlier)
orf.at/stories/321033… Image
Meanwhile, #Austria´s Tyrol brews up another wave.
This time a ´homegrown´ (#B117+#E484K) variant.
Already 50% of new infections,

~"They knew it was coming - but they didn´t bother a lockdown"
~"Now it´s all over the place, forget about local measures".
tt.com/artikel/307899… Image
Another way to not bother about a #lockdown:
#Australia, Perth is doing it routinely.

Masks up,
Queueing up at shopping centers,
Then stay home,
In ~3 days life will return to normal.

Hopefully.
Also:
queueing up at rapidly installed test centers.
1 hour after the list of "places of concern" has been posted.

#Perth has learnt the whole #COVID19 lockdown routine by heart, it seems.
#Perth is good at lockdowns.
But they still have issues with #Quarantine hotels starting outbreaks.

This man was infected "in his room", during quarantine.
Tested negative.
Visited friends (for 5 days).
Flew to Victoria - where he was tested ´positive´.
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal… Image
Actually, the man in #Perth was not "the source" of the current outbreak.
(He brought it into community, yes.)
He in turn was infected by...
ouuuhh - someone "who had returned from #India"
🙄
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal… Image
Meanwhile (a different corner of the world):
#Canada´s Ontario detected 36 cases of the #B1617 variant from India.

All "in the last few days".
All travel related (so far).
cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
#Canada:
"You're now in exponential growth. If you continue with keeping things open, you will be challenged very swiftly.

"It's a very inconvenient truth. What has worked before will not be enough"

(Do people crave for rosy fairytales, these days?)
cbc.ca/news/canada/ma…
#COVID19 situation,

Rosy fairytale vs. inconvenient truth.
(from #Belgium´s chief epidemiologist´s point of view):

"It is a choice between a rosy fairytale or an uncomfortable and undoubtedly unpopular reality.
But as always: the politicians decide..."
Most countries have far too many cases, to report individual stories.

#Australia´s Perth outbreak gives a rare chance to follow how the virus spreads,
from person to person

(and: now to another person as well,
it was transmitted in a restaurant)...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
A peek inside the #Perth restaurant, where the infection transmission between index case and another diner is thought to have happened.

The old "#COVID19 via recirculating air condition" story, it seems.
Image
After just one day, #Germany is scaling up it´s #COVID19 defense on #India again.

India is now regarded as
"Area of Variant Concern",
due to the massive spread of #B1617, there.

(it doesn´t need to be classified as "Variant of Concern" for this measure)
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… Image
#India:

"30 times more than the last wave..."

Even with some error margin,
this is too high to cope with,
I guess.
A Biostatistician,
asked about #Switzerland´s first #B1617 case:

"If we look at #UK (where they have #B1617 for a while now), the variant´s share has not increased, there.
This means we may not expect an ´immediate explosion´ in Switzerland as well"...
🤔2 days ago,
the Variant-Update by UK´s #IndependentSAGE showed #B1617 was the fastest rising new Variant in UK.
Note: *Cases are mostly travel related - no community spread, so far*
(Drop at the end is due to overall low sequencing this week)
Image
Elections incoming in #Germany,
rosy promises arise:

~"I want a clear schedule for summer, so that everyone shall know on which day restaurants, concerts, theatres,... will reopen"

🇩🇪18.773 new #COVID19 cases today
incidence: 166
Meanwhile in #Perth (West Australia),
the Premier won´t give guarantees - not even for the next day.

0 new cases today.
(~20.000 tested this day, in Perth alone)
Still in #Lockdown because of 2 recent #COVID19 transmissions in the community.
Oh,
there are currently elections in parts of #India, as well.

(I think the other parties made a similar promise, so I guess it´s fair...) Image
#Alberta (Canada) currently has a #Variant share of ~60%,
but the real worrying number is:

3-5 days waiting until you get tested
🕰️🥱
Image
Opening up, with #variants around
(example: #Alberta)

Step1: modest restrictions
Step2: stricter restrictions
Step3: easing of strict restrictions
Step4: easing of modest restrictions

(New wave)
return to Step1

Mar9, "Step2 easing", 4571 #COVID19 cases
cbc.ca/news/canada/ca… Image
Alberta, March 9:
4571 #COVID19 cases, but
"only a small number of 47 variant cases" (#B117)

("Step2 easings")

Alberta, ~one month later:
~1.000 new B117 cases per day, and
"only a small number of ~40 #P1 variant cases"
alberta.ca/stats/covid-19… Image
Due to surging #COVID19 cases in #France,
all school kids were sent into extraordinary 3 week holidays, early April.

Today is their first day back at #school.
Same procedures as before.
Except: 400.000 tests available

(note: for ~6.7 million pupils)
So, what did France´s 3 week holidays for school kids achieve?

Positivity rates in the age groups 0-19 years started to rise as soon as holidays began...

(seems kids on holidays weren´t eager to get tested, except for when they were sick.
Understandably)
Image
#Norway just issued a study,
comparing #school measures:

🔸Closing schools (home schooling)

would have the same effect as

🔸"Red Level" school (reduce classes to half size, assign ONE teacher to this group, keep all groups separated at all times)
helsedirektoratet.no/veiledere/smit… Image
🤷The advisory committee to the #Netherlands had warned, 1 week ago:
"wait with reopenings, until the trend shows steady decline of hospital admissions - we´re not sure about our forecast"

Governent didn´t want to wait.

Turns out the warning was right...
lcps.nu/813-covid-pati… Image
#Netherlands:
"Last week, suddenly admissions went up substantially.

This was exactly 2 weeks after Easter.
It might well be the spike was caused by Easter activities due to nice weather..."

"the rise might now continue far into May"
nos.nl/artikel/237834…
In 2 days,
outdoor terraces are allowed to open, in the #Netherlands.

Several bars & restaurants already announced they will not open, for several (economic or moral) reasons.

"It just doesn´t feel right"
This owner´s sister is a nurse at a #COVID IC...
nos.nl/video/2378365-… Image
#Austria´s "model" region Vorarlberg had very low case numbers ~a month ago,
so they decided to open restaurants.
Now incidence is surging fast.
"No - that´s not because of the openings.
It´s because of the belated arrival of #B117 in the region..."
vorarlberg.orf.at/stories/310101… Image
A perplexed interviewer asks if the crowded restaurants he saw in #Voralberg were acceptable...
"~Yes, we´re a model region after all!
People get infected at home, at school and at work (not at restaurants).
Well, maybe they don´t take it serious enough"
Vorarlberg will now introduce "mandatory mask & test" zones in popular areas. (You´ll need to show a ´negative´ test to go there)

Will you close restaurants?
"No, this wouldn´t be wise to have no-one going there!
Then we´d have fewer people to test..."
🤔
tvthek.orf.at/profile/Vorarl…
In a typical disaster movie from #Japan,
there´d be a scientist shouting

"Too Late!
The 4th wave cannot be stopped!
But if we pout all our energy into vaccinating Tokyo´s population, we may avoid a catastrophic 5th wave!"

It´s no movie.
Real predictions:
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
Of course, there´s always a dramatic twist...

The super-villain #B117 + #E484K turns up.
(April 1: 10 cases in #Japan)
Even with the best possible vaccination effort,
it would prevail and cause a massive, long lasting wave of infections... Image
And then someone comes along and says:

"You all remember what we did in #Japan, in the very first wave?
Closing schools and restaurants and everybody tried to stay at home?
We need to do this for 4 months - then we could keep it under control"
🙄
Image
#Japan´s current plan:

"Education ministry guidelines say that region-wide
school closures should be avoided
from the viewpoint of ensuring healthy learning and for the mental and physical health of children."
japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/04/2…
This is the scene were you yell at the screen, because you can see what´s going to happen...

Today, #Tokyo found 245 variant cases (#B117 and alike).

And for the first time,
they found clusters at elementary #schools.
😮🙅🛑‼️‼️‼️
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
uh-oh!
A #P1 cluster?
(#Germany, Calw district
dominated by #B117, so far)

"We have found several, possibly connected cases of the brazilian variant #P1"

"We are very concerned and are urgently trying to determine the chain of infections..."
kreis-calw.de/Service-Verwal… Image
Ah, #Switzerland has a plan...

it has to do with (maybe premature) openings,
and specifically large events.

And it´s about a lot of money💰
🤔
#Switzerland wants to motivate regional authorities to permit large events, even when it´s not yet clear if circumstances would allow them to take place...

If authorities would later decide to stop the event, the region would have to pay compensations.
🙄
Actually,
#Switzerland´s "cancellation insurance" is a nice idea to get things going.

(but the authorities who´d need to decide to cancel an event would be regional authorities.
And then the region would need to pay half of the compensations...😄🙃)
bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/da… Image
The Netherlands did trials with soccer matches.
Audience was (antigen) tested before the game: ~1% were ´positive´, access denied.

5 days after the match,
most visitors were tested again: 3 ´positive´.

"they got infected either before or after the match"
fieldlabevenementen.nl/wp-content/upl… Image
The #Fieldlab trials in the #Netherlands now conclude:

events may be possible,
even without 1.5m distancing.

pre-testing / open-air / ´intelligent´ site setup
would be safe enough.
fieldlabevenementen.nl/wp-content/upl… Image
Fieldlab trials also found masks to be necessary:
-all the time, when more than 50% of places were used.
-only while moving around, when just up to 50% of places were occupied
fieldlabevenementen.nl/meer-ruimte-mo…
#Moselle (France)
has managed to push down their extraordinarily high number of ´South Africa´/ ´Brazil´ variant #B1351.

15.9% today,
(was ~40%, earlier this year)
covidtracker.fr/dashboard-depa… Image
#Germany will lift the "Area of Variant Concern" status for #Moselle (France) in 2 days.

(But will declare all of #France as "High Incidence Area" instead)
This will bring small, but very welcome changes for crossborder workers...
Major improvement for commuters: when Moselle will no longer be "Area of Variant Concern", public transport will again be able to pass the border.

(It was never prohibited for persons. But they needed to walk across the border. Busses had to turn around)
sr.de/sr/home/nachri…
You know,
every time things are being promised to become "normal"...

(it´s not just cafés - it´s a plan to reopen everything until June. #Deconfinement in France)
... a tiny little virus variant pops up.

(#France has just confirmed their first #B1617 case.)
😣
The first #B1617 case in France was found in one person who was tested for LEAVING #France.
(He had recently arrived from India).
So there seems to have been no quarantine?🤔

And: there´s also a suspected second case in France now...
bfmtv.com/sante/covid-19…
"The situation in India can happen anywhere,
when protective measures are being relaxed,
when there are more contagious variants,
when vaccination coverage ist still low,
this can create a perfect storm in any country..."

says WHO #Europe director
Update:
There´s actually not one second case of #B1617 in #France,
but at least two.
Both around Marseille (Bouches du Rhone),
both travelled from India,
both were in quarantine.

They have no connection to each other.
Also update on #France´s first #B1617 case (~Bordeaux, Lot-et-Garonne):

The case tested ´positive´ in France, 3 weeks ago,
went into quarantine.

There have been close contacts in France.
Those who are known are quarantined.

One of them is ´positive´🙄
Image
In an interview, an epidemiologist noted that
"several possible clusters of #B1617 are under investigation" in #France:
~Bordeaux (South-West)
~Marseille (South-East)

and also
~Le Havre (North)
bfmtv.com/sante/variant-…
#Germany:
City of Stuttgart confirmed that one case of #B1617 had arrived there, from India.
(Arrived already in *February*,
went straight into quarantine and became ill, was detected ´positive´, then.

Sequencing now showed it had been #B1617.)
Who´s "the vulnerable ones", now?

☂️Out of the line of fire (due to vaccination):
Nursing homes, healthcare

🧬The most common places to become infected, now:
-Private Household
-Workplaces
(-childcare, if open)
#Germany #BadenWürttemberg
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/fileadmin/LGA/… Image
Today is #Portugal´s last day under
"State of Emergency".

From midnight on,
the border to Spain will reopen,
tomorrow, some large events will take place
on monday, shops, restaurants in most towns will reopen more...
Not all towns in #Portugal will be allowed to take the step to "Phase1", yet.
And there will be weekly reviews. If the situation deteriorates, local restrictions will be put back in force...
covid19estamoson.gov.pt/desconfinament…
#Portugals "return to near normal" might be reversed if either:

14-day incidence goes above 120
or
R(t) goes above 1

🤔 That´s ambitious...
lusa.pt/article/OnyeRJ…
🤗kid´s vaccine !

Oh,...wait. I know several mixed opinion parent pairs who will now go to war with each other
about vaccination or no of their kid.
😞
"It is too late to leave."

Australians usually know this from bushfires.
It´s meant to protect people from endangering themselves.

This is different:
"Those who dare to come back from #India will go to jail."
Australians in #India may be fined or jailed for trying to return home to #Australia.

´Constitutional law expert George Williams said the move was
“very likely to be constitutional”.´
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
3 days ago, #Australia´s PM announced to cut all flights from India.
They know there are 9.000 Australians registered in #India,

650 are ´vulnerable´.
"This number will certainly increase in the coming days"

#Abandoned
pm.gov.au/media/press-co… Image
#Austria (obviously not Australia):

"~There was one infected person roaming the city of #Salzburg, 4 days ago.
We have no way to identify close contacts.
Would everyone please come forward?

It´s a #B1617 case."
🙄
service.salzburg.gv.at/lkorrj/detail?… Image
The #B1617 infected lady in #Salzburg arrived from India mid last week.
(no details about quarantine🤷)

Monday: went shopping
Tuesday: went to work (asymptomatic)
->Antigen test at work was ´positive´
=> family in quarantine now,
daughter also ´positive´
salzburg.orf.at/stories/310176… Image
A while ago, #Japan came up with the concept that avoiding one of the "3 C´s"

closed spaces
crowdes places
close contacts

would reduce the risk of transmission.
mhlw.go.jp/content/3CS.pdf Image
After several months, #Japan now checked the "3C rule".

They found out:
2 or even 1 "C" would be enough to cause a #COVID19 Cluster !

Like one outbreak at a student party by the river showed: (close contacts, crowd - but no confined spaces)
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…?
#China - if you can make it there, you´re gonna make it everywhere...

#B1617
hindustantimes.com/world-news/ind…
🤔Hong Kong had no routine sequencing for #B1617, so far.

So it took them a while to discover that 10 of their #COVID19 cases were already the ´Indian´ variant...
scmp.com/news/hong-kong…
#UnderTheRadar:

"Among the 10 imported cases with the #B1617 variant discovered in Hong Kong,
seven arrived on Vistara flight 6395 from New Delhi, #India on April 4."

This was the flight:
All of the (153) passengers on the cluster-causing
flight New Dehli - Hong Kong
had presented a ´negative´🤔PCR test prior to departure in #India.

(Meanwhile 58 of them have been found #COVID19 ´positive´)
stuff.co.nz/travel/news/12…
Even in #Vietnam...

5 cases at a (I guess: quarantine-)hotel in Yen Bai are now confirmed to be #B1617.
4 ´specialists´from India
and one hotel staff.
vtv.vn/suc-khoe/5-ben…
The hotel worker in Yen Bai (#Vietnam) was tested as a close contact ("F1") of earlier cases in ´guests´ from India.

There are no F2, F3,... (secondary contacts).
In Vietnam quarantine hotel personnel is staying in quarantine.
😶
ncov.moh.gov.vn/web/guest/-/68… Image
A look inside a quarantine hotel in #Vietnam:
e.vnexpress.net/news/news/a-lo… Image
(Vietnam: quarantine hotel guards are not allowed to leave quarantine)

vs. #Perth, Western #Australia:
Once more, 1 guard infected
also 2 of his 7 housemates
Moved around the community for 4 days
before returning a positive #COVID19 test this morning.
🤦
abc.net.au/news/2021-05-0…
Ironically,
the #Perth quarantine hotel guard thought the typical COVID19 symptoms he was experiencing were side effects of his first anti-COVID #vaccination he had received earlier...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal…
Just today,
#Perth had eased measures from the previous (also quarantine hotel related) #Lockdown.

They will think about a new one,
tomorrow...🙄
wa.gov.au/organisation/d… Image
More suspected #B1617 cases in #Austria:
this time in Nickelsdorf (a small town at the border to Hungary, completely opposite side from
Salzburg (yesterday´s case).
3 family members.

And...it´s said to be NOT travel-related.
🤔
burgenland.orf.at/stories/310187…
In recent years, #India has become an important supplyer of #seafarers to the world...
⚓️
Many cargo ships do have an entirely indian crew, maybe except the captain.

(you know, what´s next...🙄)
marineinsight.com/shipping-news/… Image
The "suspected #B1617 cluster in Le Havre, #France"
(mentioned yesterday)

is the crew of an oiltanker.

(16 seafarers from #India, isolated since April 18)
france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/normandie/sein…
Now,
another #oiltanker is locked down in the port of Antwerpen (#Belgium).

22 of the 23 crew are indian.
8 have already tested #COVID19 ´positive´, yesterday...

(their prior port was also Le Havre, France)
hln.be/binnenland/sch…
Every large ship needs experienced local "Pilots" to guide them the last miles.

There are only a handful of them in the ports. And they board every ship and have direct contact with every crew...

Perfect spreaders
(as long as vaccination is stalled)
splash247.com/crewing-crisis…
No lockdown for #Perth.

A bit daring,
given that hundreds of test results are still pending...
Having 2 infected food delivery drivers may not put #Perth at great risk.
And one of them visiting a cooking class doesn´t *automatically* infect all 20 of them (mistake in the text)

But it´s a risk.
(As well as the index case´s mosque visit on friday)...
7news.com.au/lifestyle/heal… Image
Saying that there´s no need for worries,
"because people in #Perth wear masks"

and simultaneously stating
"~the guard got infected while wearing his mask properly. Shit just happens🤷‍♂️"

isn´t that somewhat incoherent?
9news.com.au/national/coron… Image
Meanwhile in #Germany🇩🇪 (Schwerin):

Mandatory #quarantine
for every person who visited one doctor´s practice
for more than 10 minutes
(even with masks! - they´re mandatory)

One of the staff was infectious. For ~a week.
~200 people concerned.
🙄
schwerin.de/export/sites/d… Image
That´s why I´m not too happy with the latest surprise coup
to allow employers to issue test certificates for their (self-tested) employees.

Those tests are ideally done at home,
before going to work.

Not before the eyes of colleagues (then contacts)🤦
The #Netherlands aren´t happy with testing.
After a month of "testing for access" trial,
(0.2% tested ´positive´)

some venues only sold half the tickets.

Their proposal:
"Tests are discouraging people from visits.
Why can´t we just open without tests?"
nos.nl/artikel/237898… Image
The Health Director of #Vietnam´s Yen Bai Province has just been suspended.

One chinese expert had completed quarantine, then travelled around the region and then, upon his departure to China was found to be
*positive* (caused several infections)...
🤷
yenbai.gov.vn/noidung/tintuc… Image
Seems
the (later positive) chinese expert spent his quarantine from April 9 to April 23...

in THE SAME HOTEL in Yen Bai (#Vietnam) where the #B1617-infected experts from India arrived on April 18.
(and one guard was also infected)

🙄uh-ohhhh...
gockhampha.com/bi-thu-yen-bai… Image
This is criminal (maybe):

It wasn´t just 1 of the staff in a doctor´s practice in Schwerin (Germany), who worked while being #COVID19 positive,
but several (including the doctor).

Fully aware
and deliberately using no masks...
Sending 240 to quarantine.
ndr.de/nachrichten/me…
Germany had ~5 doctors per 1,000 citizens.
about 400.000 for 83 million.

Many will quit their job, exhausted and frustrated or sick, after the pandemic.
Image
This was #Denmarks vaccination plan, 2 weeks ago.
AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson were strong pillars...
sst.dk/-/media/Udgive… Image
After withdrawing AstraZeneca from their vaccination programme, #Denmark now also removed Johnson&Johnson (due to blood clot problem).

With reopening currently in full swing, there´s now a huge gap in the vaccination plan...

Last hope: seasonality effect
ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/politi…
Soon in #Switzerland,
nobody needs to worry about #Variants anymore:

they stopped federal funding for the search for variants.

~"As we won´t act differently in case we would find one, it makes no sense to know if it´s a variant-case"...
🤷
srf.ch/news/schweiz/b…
#Austria still cares about variants.
And so today they´re investigating another suspected #B1617 case.
He came back from #India on April 23.

Via #Germany...
(yes, Germany had not halted flights back then and transit would not require quarantine...)
noe.orf.at/stories/310211…
This is #B1617,
preparing its grand entrance in #England.

The good thing: they brought their #COVID19 cases down to such a low number that their contact tracing might actually work...
Note well:
it´s not #B1617´s grand entrance yet,
just the preparation.
(as most of these cases are still travel-related).

That´s why proper contact tracing & quarantine is so important to stop this thing before it can get into the community.
🤦oh...
It says
"cases from travellers excluded".

So what we are seeing is indeed an approximate picture of #B1617 spread in England´s community.
📈↗️
A man from India had completed his 14 day #quarantine in #Vietnam and was released after multiple ´negative´ tests.

Now, 2 days later, he had another test.
This time ´positive´...

His appartment block is now sealed off.
Samples are going for sequencing.
gockhampha.com/phong-toa-toa-…
#Denmark´s parliament is quite confident that seasonality effect will drive #COVID19 further down.
Tonight, they decided to advance the reopening.

(Like e.g. up to 2.000 visitors in blocks of 500 in venues, provided a test/vaccination certificate)
nyheder.tv2.dk/politik/2021-0… Image
#Denmark wants to go ahead,
even with slight warning signs:

"Our reproduction number has now risen to R~1.1,
but that was expected, due to recent reopenings.

Thursday we´re going to open a lot more.
So let´s all remember the basic #COVID19 rules..."
🙄
Too bad,
as part of ´critical infrastructure´ they would have been eligible to have their #COVID19 vaccination in ~2 weeks.

But now a ´sudden wave of infections´ has infected many city employees in #Stuttgart (Germany).

No collection of hazardous waste🤷
stuttgart.de/pressemitteilu… Image
Some streets will also remain unsweeped, in #Stuttgart (personnel infected with #COVID19).

Also the city´s traffic utility has a surge in cases.
"No need to worry! We know how ~half of the infections happened."

(but they won´t tell how...🤫)
swr.de/swraktuell/bad…
#France is happy.

Not one departement is above the magical "Incidence 400".
So everyone will be free to enjoy the next wave of #reopenings, starting on May 19.
francebleu.fr/infos/sante-sc… Image
So far, #B1617 doesn´t seem to stop the reopenings in #France.

Yes, there are 3 new confirmed cases in Bordeaux.
But the infection has ´only spread to the family´ of a returnee from India, with "everyone being isolated at home."
lci.fr/sante/covid-19…
Not much worry about #B1617 in #Germany.

Although it´s not really contained🙄
One case hase been found in a returnee from India in Gladbeck (North Rhine-Westphalia).
He had already infected 2 contacts in another city...

"It´s only a Variant of Interest"
presse-service.de/data.aspx/stat… Image
#Sydney:
"You think everything is fine
but then all of a sudden it´s not"

A #COVID19 case
he has not been abroad
does not work in the quarantine system
but has a ´high´ viral load,
has been to a cinema and many more venues
has been infectious for ~5 days
#Sydney still has no idea, where their latest #COVID19 case may have been infected.

But he has been roaming a large area (especially barbecue grill stores, a cinema,...), while being infectious.
The mysterious Sydney #COVID19 case came very close to a quarantine hotel (visiting an optometrist in the hotel's basement.)
It's interesting to see how potential contacts of the #Sydney case self-quarantine, even despite a 'negative' test.

(in Europe, this won't happen, as most contact tracing has collapsed a long time ago...)
smh.com.au/politics/nsw/n…
Also interesting:

#NSW health checked their entire database and found ONE matching sequence.
The likely source of infection is a returnee from USA, quarantined in Sydney.
And he is confirmed to carry the #B1617 variant.

No clue about transmission path...
Yes,
there are 2 local transmissions in #Sydney, now.
(the "mystery" case´s wife´s test results finally came back ´positive´...
9news.com.au/national/coron…
Meanwhile,
#Norway declares they might have been able to break the infection chain of #B1351, the ´South Africa´ variant.
It had caused some worrisome outbreaks, but in the last 2 weeks, only very few cases were added.

(~only #B117 remains, for now)
fhi.no/contentassets/… Image
The telephone network in Tokyo (#Japan) is fearing overload, due to a surge in phone calls for reservations of vaccination appointments.
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021…
The ´Brazil´ variant #P1 is spreading in parts of northern #Germany.

Officials:
"it´s not locally confined,
it´s all over the district"

"we think it´s also spreading in other districts,
they just don´t know it yet (there´s little screening for variants)"
ndr.de/nachrichten/me… Image
South-West #Germany,
development of #B1617 (´India´ variant) cases:

April 22: -

April 28: 2
April 29: 6
May 04: 9
May 06: 18
(that´s in one week...)
gesundheitsamt-bw.de/lga/de/fachinf… Image
A biosecurity lab at Wageningen University (#Netherlands) has trained bees🐝 as #COVID19 detection devices.
They are put into harnesses and then trained with samples from infected minks.

🙄
nu.nl/uit-andere-med…
Leisure industry in the #Netherlands is against ´testing for entry´:
"it´s dangerous, because tests are not accurate"

"it´s an additional barrier that puts people off.
We´d rather just keep our business closed until no tests will be required to enter"...
nos.nl/artikel/237963…
(here we go again...🙄)
Pressure from #Germany´s trade association:

"Open all stores immediately!
and where 7day-incidence goes below 100,
do away with all the shopping-test requirements!"
handelsblatt.com/dpa/wirtschaft…
#Iceland is the first country (to my knowledge) to introduce #COVID19 test positivity rates to classify high-risk countries !👍

(BTW: while #Germany is boasting about "no more tests at incidences below 100!" their positivity rate >12% tells the story...)
covid.is/undirflokkar/h… Image
Bad timing, 2 months ago:

"#Germany´s 2nd wave is broken!

Is a 3rd wave ahead - due to not enough vaccine, not enough tests and a forced wave of openings?"

(soon after, #B117 surged massively)
br.de/nachrichten/wi…
Today:
"Germany´s 3rd wave is broken!"

But:
-tests galore, but the need for testing is starting to be denied
-unwanted AZ vaccine & scarcity of other vaccines
-a forced wave of openings

🙄oh, well. Go ahead. We´ve been there before.
tagesschau.de/inland/corona-…
#UK
#B1617(.2), a "Variant of Concern"

Well you know,
they have a chance for real contact tracing.

And they say "almost half of them are travel related or from contact with travellers"

🙄uh, so it´s more than 50% who are NOT travel related...
This is,
what moved #UK PHE from "interest" to "concern":

Last week, they had 202 cases of #B1617(.2)
In just one week, they detected 318 more...
gov.uk/government/pub… Image
#B1617(.2) is there, and rising.
Wow, #Norway is really reacting fast!

"We see cases of #B1617 doubling in the UK within a week.
This could threaten our current plan for reopenings.

It may need heavier measures than we used for #B117, to slow this variant..."
nrk.no/nyheter/indisk…
(autotranslated:) Image
In Osaka region (#Japan),
intensive care occupation surpassed 100%, the past few days.
Many had been told to wait at home.
Now they are being rushed in, in critical state...
😟
covid19-osaka.info/en/ Image
Medical staff in #Tokyo put protest transparents on a hospital´s windows:

"We´re over capacity - Stop Olympics!"

(10.000 nurses were demanded for the Olympics,
while nurses from rural prefectures are dispatched to help in big cities with #COVID19 surges)
blogos.com/article/534289/
An online petition to
"cancel the #Tokyo Olympics to save lives"
was started 2 days ago.
It has now collected ~250.000 signatures.
change.org/p/cancel-the-t…
In #Vietnam,
7 outbreaks have been recorded, this week.

The number of cases shouldn´t be a problem.
But one outbreak hit the country´s main #COVID19 hospital. 69 people infected,
including visitors who then brought it home.
It also reached another clinic.
ncov.moh.gov.vn/web/guest/-/68… Image
The current hospital outbreaks in #Vietnam caused ~7.600 people to become "contacts".

(the autotranslation says ´cases´ which should be incorrect - but managing this amount of contacts is still an awful lot of work...😓)
ncov.moh.gov.vn/en/-/6847426-3… Image
"a lot of work":
One of the hospitals in #Vietnam will need to get 4.000 contacts tested.

They say the task will be completed in 24 hours...
ncov.moh.gov.vn/web/guest/-/68… Image
#MV, North-East #Germany:

"The ´Brazil´ Variant #P1 is established in at least
3 districts.
It was first detected 4 weeks ago and has now 2.4% share.

This is worrying:
it even rises while the dominating #B117 variant slowed down."
comv-gen.de/fileadmin/user… Image
~"Currently, variant data should be taken with a grain of salt - as B117 was the dominant variant anyway, there was less variant screening done recently."

(There could be more of other variants like #P1 around, than known...)

Recommendation:
create a P1 Containment Task Force⚠️ Image
About #B1617(.2)
in the #UK:

Yes, in the first tweet of this thread she talks about "quite disturbing facts".
Don´t worry - she finishes this thread with
"we may not end up like India,

But it´s still not great"😕
One additional outtake from UK´s #B1617 report:

interesting to see how many #B1617 cases #Germany has detected by sequencing.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
"At the end of April,
there was an outbreak of #B11519 in #Denmark.
This is the most common variant in Mexico, but the first time it caused an outbreak in DK.

It´s not more transmissible than the old ´wild type´ variant"...
👆THIS should be worrying⚠️
The #B11519 outbreak in #Denmark happened IN a RESTAURANT.
Since April 21 they were allowed to reopen indoors for everyone with a negative antigen test, max 72 h old(!)

"Someone brought the variant into the restaurant and then it spread over several days"
berlingske.dk/danmark/over-5…
According to Denmark´s Health Minister there is "currently a situation with #B11519".

I´d say:
🤔if this variant isn´t more transmissible than the old wild type,
it serves to show how easy any variant can spread under current Restaurant opening conditions
Actually this example shows how effectively #Denmark´s restaurant opening protocol can spread infections:

"We have just fund 17 more cases of the #B11519 variant"

🙄 (and this is a not very transmissible variant, as they said)
dr.dk/nyheder/senest…
#Denmark is taking the #B11519 outbreak more serious, it seems.

(Note: google´s translation of this tweet isn´t correct.
The health authorities now don´t just look for contacts.

THEY ARE SEARCHING FOR CONTACTS OF CONTACTS (secondary contacts))...🤨
Image
#Denmark has an "automatic" #Lockdown clause
and it applies now for a part of Horsens community.

Positivity rate 3.6% (2.5 allowed)
7- day incidence 531 (500 allowed)
39 cases (20 allowed)

▶️Schools, cinemas, private meetings,...
everything cancelled.
tvsyd.dk/horsens/klar-o… Image
Communities in #Norway don´t have an "automatic" Lockdown.
Those decisions are decided locally and case-specific.

Today, #Risør community decided to ask their ~7.000 citizens to cancel all plans for the weekend.

"We have an unclear infection-situation"
risor.kommune.no/tjenester/hels… Image
How many cases would it take to shut down a town of 7.000 like Risør, #Norway?

One.

One family dad infected wife and 3 kids,
they went to school & kindergarten...

>150 contacts.

Risør had very few cases, so far.
Now they face a complete shut-down.
risor.kommune.no/tjenester/hels… Image
Last week was ´Golden Week´ in #Japan.
A period of consecutive holidays.

Today: #COVID19 records.
😟
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2021… Image
#Japan´s post-holiday #COVID19 wave comes with unexpected force.
Especially the more rural prefectures are hit.
(Hiroshima or Ishikawa prefectures see their cases double within one day!)
😱
www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/c… Image
#Belgium today:

"At first, there were cases in returnees from India.
Then it was in contacts of returnees.

And now, we have #B1617 cases in people with no link to India at all.

#B1617 is spreading here.
It might spread faster than #B117..."
hln.be/borsbeek/bewon… Image
Belgium doesn´t know how far #B1617 is already spread.

They found one #B1617 cluster by chance, today:

Residents of a nursing home,
who had been fully vaccinated.

Most residents there had also been infected ~one year ago, already...
(see old article):
hln.be/borsbeek/72-va…
Meanwhile, in #Germany:

"Fully #vaccinated persons are exempt from
-curfew
-quarantine (e.g. after close contact or returning from holidays in a #COVID19 risk country)

It´s the law. (Since sunday)
With exceptions if a "concerning variant" is involved...
bundesanzeiger.de/pub/publicatio… Image
Sunday in #Germany (Freiburg):

1.600 doses of unused #AstraZeneca vaccine are given away as "first come, first served" to everyone.
No need to fulfill the usual prioritization requirements.
#Indonesia:

"Four patients with the #B1617 mutation have been treated since January.

However, due to the long verifying process (to be really sure it´s the ´India´ variant), it was only announced on May 8

In the meantime it´s likely it has spread a lot"
🔵Due to

🔸Increased transmissibility
🔸some reduced neutralization

#B1617 is now officially classified as
"Variant of Concern"🔵
Less than one week ago,
One case of #B1617 was found at Bergen University (#Norway).

Then infections of 4 contacts.

Now some of those contacts´ contacts tested ´positive´.

How many ?
"A few"...
nrk.no/vestland/miste…
#Denmark:
"In February we had ~300 #COVID19 cases per day.
Now it´s ~900 per day.

~The increase was expected – and inevitable – due to our recent reopenings.

But it´s mostly young ones. They will not occupy the hospitals much"...
🙄
ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyhede… Image
Everything goes as planned, in #Denmark:

"Cases are increasing, but that´s normal with the reopenings - nothing to worry.
There will also be more lockdowns, but hopefully shorter ones"...

(🤔Oh. So, this is the price we´ll pay for reopenings?...)
tv2lorry.dk/koebenhavn/pre…

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